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Monday, May 06, 2013

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I'll just always first remember AT&T for the Lincecum early exit and the Werth blooping XBH to RF off Brian Wilson.

Hey, maybe this a trap game. All I got.

If I remember correctly, our SP really performed well in the home stretch of '08 - and all we needed was 6 IP from our starters, because our BP was good.

When I look at baseball-reference.com, our pitching (everyone, SP and RP) was 2nd in the league in wins and 4th in ERA. It was pretty good.

I can see the argument of building a rotation out of 1 ace and good but not dominant pitchers who will keep you in the game for 6 innings, with solid relievers for the final 3 innings.

And yes, offense that can ignite anytime from anywhere in the lineup is a definite plus.

At the risk of sounding overly optimistic: This has sweep written all over it.

2011 is not exactly a sustainable model, given that it rested on one of the best team pitching seasons in the history of the sport.

One lesson I would think the team could draw on from the entire 2007-2011 era is that, by and large, building around a core of homegrown players in their mid to late 20s is a pretty good idea.

If you have that, it's easy to build a team out from there. If you don't, it's hard to reversen-engineer a good team, as we're finding out now.

Brian Wilson could be a good pick up.. He is still available right?

I just wish the Phils had become big spenders a little earlier. In the steroid era it was a little easier to reverse engineer a quality team with older free agents because dudes extended their productive years. Figures that by the time the Phils jumped onto that model it was already becoming obsolete.

Jimmy Rollins looks like he's 45 out there. To me, that's a lot sadder than what happened to Halliday. He looks lethargic and doesn't resemble a 'sparkplug' any more than Erik Kratz.

I saw a pretty good article a while back (maybe mid-2012?) that built a case for having an awesome bullpen.

Yes, average starters are a must, and an above-average offense makes everything look rosier, but if you can have a bullpen that makes every 7th-inning lead a done deal, then you've got a recipe for a WSC (maybe by Zolecki?). I can't find it anymore, but it presented some very compelling statistics re: leverage and effectiveness over time.

Of course, the fungibility of most relievers makes it difficult to build a winning 'pen without bankrupting the rest of the team, which is why you generally go with the awesome starters instead and plug in 2 or 3 great relievers with the assumption being the rest won't pitch that often.

The Phillies *have* 3 very good relievers.

The fact that they don't seem to make a difference for the team is an indictment of Charlie's poor tactical managing and the rest of the team. If the starters went 7 innings and the offense scored a few runs, this team would win a lot of games.

Rough talley using b-ref shows the 2013 phillies have $92M+filler in pitching and $60M+filler in hitting.

I guess an argument could be made that a balanced team would likely have an even amount of cash devoted to each side of the team.

Question is, does a "balanced team" necessarily mean a "better team" most of the time?

"If the starters went 7 innings and the offense scored a few runs, this team would win a lot of games."

Yes.

Huh. I wouldn't have thought it, but even in 2012 we had the fewest IP by a bullpen in baseball, and were almost 20 IP from 29th.

Meanwhile, in '08, we were 23rd, but only around 20 IP away from 15th.

"One lesson I would think the team could draw on from the entire 2007-2011 era is that, by and large, building around a core of homegrown players in their mid to late 20s is a pretty good idea."


I also think this is true, which is why I hope the Phillies have good people in player development.

Tangent - I remember that when the Royals were so good in the late '70's, I read a lot about how they had a baseball academy that produced good young players.

What are the two regularos with OBP's lower than Rollins? I know Revere is one without looking it up, but I can't think of who the other would be.

Predicting a cumulative 15-0 series loss.

It looks like it is Delmon AND Chooch, but I'd chalk that up to SSS. Doesn't that make 3 regulars, or does Delmon not count as regular yet?

Jack: We've got 2 very good relievers and one who can be at times.

Eh. I dunno. On the one hand, with really good starters, you can probably depend on them to go 6+ with regularity. It sucks that Halladay is hurting, and Lee/Hamels have been having trouble so far, but by and large we can expect an average of 7 from those two, and probably 6.2 from KK.

On the other hand, when your worst regular BP guy is Clay Condrey (with his 3.26 ERA), you're going to make up for a lot of problems the starters might run into.

Like being Brett Myers, 2008 KK, or Adam Eaton.

I'll take the Phils for a small wager tonight at +140. I have got nothing here except a hunch and that Lee has done very well against the hitters in the SF lineup tonight & at 4 starts at AT&T.

MG: With all due respect for a good hunch, I wouldn't touch Lee w/ a ten foot pole. The Phillies are scoring less than 3 R/G for him, & they're terrible at AT&T Park (worsted only by their record in Pittsburgh).

Will be there tonight. Sucks not being relevant anymore.

Tick tick tick

I'd really like the phillies to bring in Brian Wilson once he's healthy enough to play. If he's in shape he'd be a quality second set up man or safe 7 th inning guy.

The question is whether Wilson will demand more than a current-season deal.

"I'd really like the phillies to bring in Brian Wilson once he's healthy enough to play."

If a player can help the team (which Brian Wilson surely could), my tolerance for douchebaggery is really high. Nonetheless, Wilson manages to exceed the level of my tolerance. I simply don't want to be in a position where I have to root for such a clown.

Every year, my son's elementary school has a Halloween parade, where the kids show off their costumes. In 2010, I think 15% of the students (plus some of the faculty) came dressed as Brian Wilson.

Trying to stop worrying about the million ramifications of what's happening on the whole season, or even this series. If I focus on just this one game, Lee/Bumgarner has the makings of a great match to watch (if I can stay awake).

I can't see him expecting anything midseason besides a MiLB deal with good incentives for not sucking.

Dave - Runs scored for a pitcher is a meaningless stat. It tells me almost nothing except how it affects the pitcher's win-loss record.

The Giants have been okay at home offensively this year. Just a small wager ($5) that Lee is at Full Tilt tonight with the good arm in the pen available & able to scrap out a few runs vs Bumgartner. Like I said more a hunch than anything.

I hear ya, Phillibuster.

As was said earlier today, the '08 team was a good one.

The '13 team, on the other hand, has many holes.

Bob - good way to look at it. I'll try to shake my Phunk and approach tonight's game the same way.

Lee has a 0.51 ERA at AT&T Park in 4 GS too for what it is worth and had good numbers against every hitter in this lineup except Pence.

If the Phils get a Lee 'Fult Tilt' start (min. 7 IP and 2 or less ERs), then I like their chances.

Still more disappointed in this starting staff than anything. They have a 4.55 ERA (13th in the NL) after Halladay's meltdown yesterday. Only better than the Brewers & Padres.

What's the ERA for our starting pitching when Halladay's numbers are subtracted?

Gbrett: Hey, if you're not watching the games because you enjoy baseball, then it's going to be a long season even if the Phillies dominate.

Best we can do is hope for some enjoyable baseball. If we win, that might make it more so, but if not... Well, I may love the Phils, but I'm not so invested that I feel the need to rail against them if they don't do well in the standings.

I said it in the last thread but the Giants really have pissed me off the past few years. Not only the 2 WS and beating the Phils in '10 NLCS.

Just have had a ton of breaks come their way the past few years. Even this offseason, Sabean made a bunch of foolish moves (Affledt at 3 yr$/$18M, Scutaro 3 yr/$20M, even a questionable 4 yr/$40M deal to Pagan) and yet once again they are playing pretty well because Barry Zito has rebounded along with jobbers like Machi & Kontos turnig into capable relievers.

Just saw that Gavin Floyd suffered a torn UCL and a torn flexor muscle, and will have surgery and miss 14-19 months.

In semi-related news, Freddy Garcia took a no-no into the 7th inning earlier this week.

Baseball is strange.

Yeah, I may not feel like there's a Phillies/Giants rivalry, but if baseball teams had faces, I feel like SFG would be tops of the most-punchable list.

Yankees would probably be up there too, but maybe they've grown out a handlebar mustache lately or something, because they're less so. Braves too, honestly, even though I can't ever hope for them to do anything but lose.

GBrettfan: 3.67, I think..

Non-Doc ERA: 3.93

Via

245 IP
107 ER

MG: It's your money. *shrug*

MG - The Phils cannot win tonight's game unless Lee pitches a shut-out for the seventeen or so innings it will take for the Giants to put their second position player on the mound.

GBrettfan: I came up w/ an ERA of 3.68 for starters not named Halladay. (159.1 IP & 65 ER). I'm no math whiz, though. Someone should double check.

3.93 includes bullpen.

Start working at home with Google! It's by-far the best job Ive had. Last Monday I got a new Alfa Romeo from bringing in $7778. I started this 9 months ago and practically straight away started making more than $83 per hour. I work through this link, http://Mojo50.com

Hmmmm braves vs reds. Or bron bron cont his dominating run? I'll be flipping back and forth.

O Alfa Romeo, Alfa Romeo! wherefore art thou Alfa Romeo?

"He's the ace of the staff, no matter how much money Matt Cain makes or how many Cy Youngs Tim Lincecum won before the Giants made him stop smoking weed."

Great line. LOL

Now its $83 an hour?!?

Sweet!!!

Jack: This is right on the money:

"One lesson I would think the team could draw on from the entire 2007-2011 era is that, by and large, building around a core of homegrown players in their mid to late 20s is a pretty good idea."

Hamels-Howard-Utley-Ruiz-Burrell-Myers-Kendrick were all homegrown, all in their 20s, and largely the products of drafts in which the Phils were picking fairly high in the round due to their poor finishes.

As much as I'd love to take credit for this, I am not able to.

http://i.imgur.com/Y4LmMAQ.jpg

clout: An opportunity the club will have again over the coming several seasons.

Rollins (SS), Utley (2B), M. Young (GIDP), Howard (1B), D. Young (RF), Brown (LF), Mayberry (CF), Kratz (C), Lee (L).

Thanks for the ERA stats, guys.

3.93 places us at #16 in the majors.

3.68 for starters looks like it would place us at #10 in the majors for starting staffs.

That IS a great line about Lincecum and weed. Kudos, Corey!

I also love the post "O Alfa Romeo, Alfa Romeo, wherefore art thou, Alfa Romeo?" Love the humor on BL.

Matt Gelb ‏@magelb 14m
Delmon Young and Hunter Pence will both play one of the toughest right fields in baseball tonight. Must-see TV.

I wonder if Rube really think these are my guys (Rollins, Utley, Howard, Cole and to a extent Ruiz) and I'll live or die by them. Or is it more shi* im stuck with these guys and they aint much i can do mentality.

So, Mayberry's our new "starting CF" now?

Graphs of Halladay's Cutter location over the past several seasons (via ESPN):

http://bit.ly/YB644w

I love how Revere is now apparently a part time player because of 30 poor offensive games at age 24. Meanwhile Ibanez sucked for two full years in every phase basically and got every start.

Wave the white flag:

Todd Zolecki ‏@ToddZolecki

Savery is up to help bullpen until they need a starter, but Manuel hinted he could stick around.

At least joe cool has been pretty solid at AAA and throws harder then those candy asses in the pen now. FYI red sawx have 6 guys throw 96 or harder in AA and above. Where's our guys??????

Phils with a 10:10PM Eastern start time>any sleeping pill on the market.

Iceman: The whole "highly paid veteran" thing probably played into that. Plus the fact that Raul began his Phillies career red hot, which is all Charlie remembered thereafter.

Jim Salisbury ‏@JSalisburyCSN 1m
Phils will bring up a P to start Fri, Amaro says. Will not be Jesse Biddle. Young not ready, GM said. Morgan and Cloyd top candidates.

Matt Gelb ‏@magelb 3m
Amaro said Phillies will go internal for call-up to fill Friday’s starting spot. Also looking outside org for long-term answer.

Scott: That is brilliant. I wish I had done it.

hook: The Phillies don't like pitchers who throw hard. They seek out guys who reach 90-91, tops, w/ no control.

Re: Raul getting a longer leash than Revere - I think the fact that Raul had the ability to hit for power when hot made a huge difference to Charlie. Revere getting hot will mean singles, and with the team struggling to score runs, I believe that Charlie probably wants to give Mayberry a fair share of ABs for the simple fact that he is more capable of hitting an XBH.

I know we didn't expect Revere to hit for power, but I think the Phillies did expect the rest of the lineup to do more damage than they have been.

Maybe so but no way they where sitting down Raul and his 12 Mill salary for any stretch of time.

i've got gameday up for the battle of the ex-phils in boston. bucholz has given up 5 hits and 3 runs to worley's 2 hits and no runs thru 3 1/2. buch is 6-0 on the season w/ a 1.48 era.

That cutter graphic is something else.

victorino homers off vanimal. now 3-1 after 4

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