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Tuesday, May 28, 2013

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Still wacky to see Phillies home page on ESPN pitching stats...1st in quality starts, 17th-19th in the other pitching categories lol.

Last year, it took Lee until Sep 23rd to win his 6th game.

I'm not complaining but Dom's no walk streak is legendary. Entire Month of May no walks. 7HR and 18RBI tho..

I'd imagine Dom is starting to reach rarified air with his walkless streak.

That has to rank up there as one of the best starts in Lee's tenure in Philadelphia.

95/69. Pretty dominating night.

Jayson Stark going to have to write an article about it soon if he keeps it up. Especially while hitting HR's.

karabellespn Eric Karabell
Yeah they prob are advising him to be aggressive “@NEPhilliesPhan: @karabellespn Rube wants Production™, not walks...and Dom is listening.”

You NEPP?

Was expecting the worst from Pap tonite in fenway. Too much juice. Dom saved the day with hr. If a one run lead I would have not been surprised if Pap would have given it up then we would have killed cholly for taking Lee out. We need another outfielder bad. I can't take D Young much longer.

Looks like Charlie has changed his strategy of playing for 3 run homers to playing for solo HR's.

Listen, a HR is a FAR more productive offensive outcome than a walk. If you were able to, you'd trade every damn walk of your career for a HR.

Problem is, walks are far easier to come by than HR. So while Dom's home run surge is impressive, to say the least, part of it is probably fool's gold. His power will revert at some point. Will the walks return when that happens?

If they don't, it could be pretty ugly.

And I understand that while his spike in HR could be a mirage of a small sample, so could his lack of walks.

But his plate discipline numbers lean towards that of a guy who is going to walk less naturally, and that does concern me a bit.

Delmon Young is so bad. Mayberry-Nix RF platoon, come on, seriously. It's getting sad here. As much as we all hate Mayberry, he has an OBP over.300, and on this team, thats marvelous.

How many solo homers is that in a row for the Phils? Wasn't there some crazy stat the other night that like 16 out of the last 17 HR's were solo shots?

I know I'm pretty sure these stats were posted before, but we already had a younger, faster, better defensively, backup CF and just as cheap Delmon Young. His name is John Mayberry and he hits LHP better than D. Young, and only slightly worse against RHP.

UGH UGH UGH, I feel I should refuse to watch until D. Young is gone.

Shoot, Mayberry is older. D.Young is only 27? He looks 35.

I want to see Delmon Young's birth certificate!

I might be a little off but like around 26 of the last 27 homers have been solo shots......Hard to believe Harry.

Lee, Brown and Papelbon = Ganadores.
All the rest = Perdedores.

It was fun watching Lee and Papelbon tonight but the offense was virtually the same as last night. It's nice to see Brown slugging some home runs in Fenway too.

The overall approach from the offense was horrendous though. Delmon Young saw 5 pitches over 4 ABs. He's not just bad, he's really bad. He costs virtually nothing and it almost appears like they had the hearts and minds set on this working out so he'll get more opportunity than he deserves to make it work.

Zambrano had a good game tonight for Clearwater, next game will be in Reading or LV. How long will it be before he replaces Cloyd?

Just keep Dom at 6th. He's comfortable and producing.

Yeah, I see no reason to move Brown out from behind Ryan Howard (.289 OBP) and DYoung (.281 OBP).

No reason at all.

Thought it might be good let everyone here who was clamoring for Yuniesky Betancourt, his season line:

.228/.260/.401

He did, he does and he always will suck.

More improbable than a cleanly played, well pitched win against the Sawx at Fenway is a Delmon Young leg it out single.
Still can't believe Lee was lifted with less than 100 pitches. There must be drama clause in Pap's contract that we don't know about.
Good game.
Give 'em hell tomorrow KK.

I didnt watch the game...But.." Then Dempster settled down, and just two Phillies managed"...

Is that right way to put this..Every pitcher settles down with our hitters...

In terms of 2013 value, power at the expense of discipline is probably a net negative.

In terms of Dom Brown's future, I don't see how this is anything but a positive. It makes Brown's ceiling higher than it appeared a few months ago. Now, Brown is a guy who has shown (not at the same time) above-average plate discipline and above-average power. If he can put it all together (always a big if, and with the disclaimer that he's only shown 2 months of power hitting), he may reach the #4 prospect hype.

Never thought I'd say this a two months ago, but if they do end up having a fire sale, one guy I'd want to hold onto is Dom Brown. He's young, cheap and on the assent curve of his career. Not saying he is going to be great, but he's shown enough to warrant keeping.

the team's top producer offensively remains in the six-hole.

As opposed to defensively in the six-hole?

I hope they don't trade Cliff Lee. Maybe they could get something for him besides a salary dump (doubtful), but he is one of the only reasons left to watch this team anymore.

karabellespn Eric Karabell
Yeah they prob are advising him to be aggressive “@NEPhilliesPhan: @karabellespn Rube wants Production™, not walks...and Dom is listening.”

You NEPP?

Posted by: johnnysanz3 | Tuesday, May 28, 2013 at 10:02 PM

Yup, that is my rarely used twitter account.

Would be pretty shocking if they can split with Boston. They've got a pretty easy stretch after (MIL-MIA-MIL-MIN) where they could feasibly climb above .500.

Honestly, I thought they'd be 10 under at this point with the west coast trip + this two series stretch.

Iceman: I said before the West Coast trip over the next 15 games for the division I could see it being relatively the same. It was with the only change being the Phillies moving ahead of the Mets. We didn't lose any ground really either.

The Phillies are in a spot where they aren't playing bad enough to be out, but not good enough to be in it. The trade deadline almost feels like you may need to be buyers but buyers with an eye on the road ahead- which might mean moving guys like Rollins, but moving them for different pieces.

On Brown- yes the walks are down but I find it comical that when he is finally starting to show some power stroke people fret about it. He is still relatively young and the game comes in waves for younger players- one thing clicks than another. If he can grab the walks back while keeping the power he is going to be just fine as an everyday player even with his defensive deficiencies.

I understand the worry that Dom isn't walking enough (at all), but I think he's filling a void on this team with his new found power. Of course it's a SSS, but no one else on this team is currently filling that void, save for the occasional Kratzenhammer. On that note, why would any pitcher throw him a fastball?

Along those lines, at this point, Dom's at bats are the only ones I look forward to. From a pure entertainment value that is.

I can't recall who it was, but yesterday before the game, someone commented in relation to MYoung's struggles:

"...of course, now he'll go deep tonight to further cement his place in the lineup." (paraphrase)

To that poster I say: well played, my friend, well played.

Heard guys at work talkin about lee to Boston for middlebrooks and other pcs? That's news to me. Was it stirred up on that fabulous Philly sports talk radio show. And the dynamite hosts they have? They all suck, but that rhea brings nothing I mean nothing to the table.

Hook: yeah I caught a snippet this morning of Ange-blow saying they should make such a trade, so I'm sure that's all his creation.

I understand the frustration w/ the current team, and a fire-sale may be needed come deadline time. But it's still early May and they're only 6.5 games out. Why is (seemingly) everyone so hell-bent on writing this team's obit already?

When are they gonna come to their senses and shut Howard down?

I mean seriously, it's just sad to watch now.

It's time to call up Ruf and let Howard get his legs under him. (If that's even possible)

Kinda funny how quiet it gets on here after a Phillies win.

***But it's still early May and they're only 6.5 games out. Why is (seemingly) everyone so hell-bent on writing this team's obit already?***

I assume you meant Late May, but the point is much the same.

Agreed Cyclic. And forgive me if it's been said ad nauseam the past couple days, but it bears repeating:

Why in the world do you let Howard play the field in Boston, when you can DH him & play Mayberry/Nix at 1B and the other (or even DYoung) in RF?

It's clear that Howard at 50% doesn't help the team. Better to DL him for a couple weeks, let him fully heal, and possibly contribute at some positive level for the 2nd half.

But no, they continue with "Shoot 'im up and ship 'im out."

NEPP: good catch, yes s/b late May.
Guess my mind is screaming "it's still early!"

Nothing to rip them when lee throws a gem and gets a few runs.

Duh Hook, you scoff at talk radio while spreading trade rumors you heard from "guys at work"? Based on your writing style, I assume you work at a meth lab?

But it's still early May and they're only 6.5 games out. Why is (seemingly) everyone so hell-bent on writing this team's obit already?

I hate to be a stereotypical BL naysayer, but this team is flat-out bad. We're extremely lucky to be at 25-27 (Pythag W-L is 21-31). We're 29th out of 30 teams in runs per game. Our offense is historically bad. At the current rate (3.48 runs per game), we will only be saved by the 2013 Marlins from having the worst offensive output by an NL team in the last 20 years.

Charlie admitted that he only used Papelbon last night, instead of letting Lee finish the game, because they were in Boston. Amazing.

It doesn't really bother me, since with a 2-run lead I tend to think there's no appreciable difference between a fresh Papelbon and Cliff Lee. You should win that game 95% of the time with either one.

But it's just interesting to me that our manager actually dictates his decisions based on stuff like that. I get that he's a "player's manager," and I kind of like it actually, I just find it interesting. Like, sure, he was a "player's manager" for Papelbon last night, but I wonder how Cliff Lee felt about it?

Is it machismo? I don't think so, 'cause I feel like I read some comments from Howard saying something about how he'll keep going out there as long as he sees his name in the lineup.

It's like the FO/Manager is so obsessed with the numbers on his baseball card that they are absolutely convinced that he's the only one capable of getting their precious RBIs. Even though it's clear to anyone with half a brain that he's almost completely useless at the plate.

As recently as early May, he was finishing up a nice little 25 game hot streak (.322/.357/.622/.979, 6 HR, 16 RBI). Now if (IF) this was possible because he wasn't having problems with his left leg, then why the hell would they keep trotting him out there at the level he's at now? (.213/.226/.279/.504, 0 HR, 5 RBI in his last 16 games)

And no I don't think it's just the ebb and flow of a baseball season (players get hot players get cold). He downright blows right now.

Why in the world do you let Howard play the field in Boston, when you can DH him & play Mayberry/Nix at 1B and the other (or even DYoung) in RF?

I'm pretty sure Cholly believes, rightly or wrongly, that Howard's a better defensive 1B than Nix or Mayberry.

I think I asked this yesterday. I'm referring to Delmon Young here.

How bad do you have to be defensively to be the DH on a team that features a gimpy Ryan Howard? I mean, Howard basically defines a player who should be a DH right now, and yet your team thinks you are more of a liability in the field than he is.

CT: don't get me wrong, I'm not saying they're a good team right now. Their offense has been downright pathetic.

All I'm saying is there's still a chance and still time to right the ship for one last push this season. Some moves need to be made (DL Howard, cut DYoung & MM, fire UC), but there's still talent here if deployed properly.

We all know this team is historically stronger in the 2nd half. The fact they're not further behind right now can be viewed as a positive. Will I bet money on this team making the playoffs? No. But can they still do it? Absolutely.

This team is getting pretty predictable. You can pencil in a loss when Cole Hamel pitches or if a win in the next game will get the team to .500, or the game following that game. You can expect a win when Cliff Lee pitches and you don't know what to expect when, KK, Cloyd, or Pettibone pitches. That pretty much sums it up.

I would again caution taking baseball players literally.

Also, had Charlie left Lee in and he blew the lead I imagine the mood would be different on using Papelbon.

I won't fault Cholly for getting Papelbon into that game. Keeping your key personnel happy is important, and it's not like he was putting Mini-Mart on the mound in the ninth.

Perhaps I shouldn't give Cholly any ideas.

Considering Paplebon's being paid $12mil to "save" wins, I have no real issue with CM putting him in there. If he put DeFratus in there b/c he was from Boston or something, than that's a different story.

I do think the Howard/DH issue is pretty glaring.

Why pay a closer $15 million if you're not going to use him in save situations? I'm all for Cliff getting his CG's, but he was at 95 pitches, and considering how the season is going, we're going to need him to make every start he's scheduled to.

Also doesn't bother me that Cholly used him simply "cause he wanted to see it". Too often sports is taken as a life or death proposition. Everyone knows it's much more important than that ;)

I don't have a problem with putting in Papelbon, either. It was more noting the decision-making process behind it. I even said I didn't really care about that--I like that Charlie is a "player's manager," so to speak. Just fascinating that a manager basically admitted to it like that. You don't normally see that in sports.

95 pitches was the least Cliff has thrown all season. If they were in any other city, no doubt in my mind he throws a CG there.

If they were in any other city, no doubt in my mind he throws a CG there.

Posted by: Jack

optimist.

"Also, had Charlie left Lee in and he blew the lead I imagine the mood would be different on using Papelbon."

Not really, I think everyone stated their opinion well before Papelbon even threw a pitch, including every beat writer on twitter.

No one thought it was the worst move in the world, but almost everyone would have done it differently.

Lee has definitely been the MVP of the Phils so far.

Papelbon April FB: 92.9 mph
Papelbon May FB: 93.4 mph
Papelbon last night: 94.9 mph

How do ya beat pythagorean projections? Why, everybody always said a solid bullpen and great managin' of course.

Wait, what?

*average fastball

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20130529_Zambrano_pronounces_himself__ready_.html


Z Train pulling into the station soon.

I'm indifferent, really. I think I've seen about enough of Cloyd. Plus we need to get a bat in the lineup somewhere.

Only issue seems to be that he'll be ready around the same time as Lannan. In which case he should become the long man in the pen with Pettibone staying in the rotation.

micko: or get blown out in an extremely alarming rate of your losses.

Adam Morgan on the DL, so its all Z's job it looks like.

lore-- It's not worth losing if you can't lose big!

I bet the Sox pitchers approach Dom a little more carefully now. Delmon Young and a few others... Not so much. I think they understand how to get Howard out, and just don't hang one like the dinger that MYoung hit... Well, and if (when) Mini Mart gets an AB, be very very careful...

Most improved pitcher:

Kyle Kendrick or John Lackey?

"I won't fault Cholly for getting Papelbon into that game. Keeping your key personnel happy is important, and it's not like he was putting Mini-Mart on the mound in the ninth."


Colonel, stop making sense. Some people in these parts need to have something to complain about. It's amazing that they're focused on that, with all the other issues surrounding this team.


DL Howard. Free Ruf.

Fatalotti: were you actually castigating folks who thought Betancourt should be the utility infielder? You know Michael Martinez is on the big league roster, yes?

So, if pitchers start pitching Brown more carefully, does he then start to draw walks?

"You know Michael Martinez is on the big league roster, yes?"


jbird, nothing personal, but I absolutelyf888inghated reading that sentence.

Bring Z up, let him get some wins. Trade his ass for AAA filler. Just like that.

Another depressing statistic: FanGraphs has Delmon Young at -0.5 WAR in just 24 games. That would put him on pace for more than (less than?) -3 WAR over a full season.

Roman Quinn back from the dead, season OPS over .700 finally, thanks to a .298/.411/.436 month of May, and recently notched his 24th SB of the season.

limoguy: If Brown walks, it'll set up ducks on the pond for Kratz, Mayberry, & Galvis. Pick your poison opposing pitchers!

Another fake post from me today? Cute.

Lee is just downright nasty. It's nice to see that surgical approach with Doc on the shelf. I wonder if letting Papelbon close it out was solely sentimental or if it was to say "Hey Boston, check out this closer, want him back?" Brown's ball was out in a hurry. When he clears his hands he is just ridiculous. He could have gone deep in his first AB but jammed himself.

Interesting to me was the verbiage in the tweet accompanying the Murphy article on Zambrano. Use of "the Phillies rotation" leads me to wonder if he actually would be okay with a bullpen role. Especially with the article talking about being ready for a start in the next couple weeks and throwing 100+ pitches in his next one.

David Murphy ‏@HighCheese

Carlos Zambrano says he is ready to help the Phillies' rotation...right now: [link]


***and recently notched his 24th SB of the season.***

...and his 22nd error in 181 chances.

One upside to Dom continuing not to walk much is that it would generate tons of user comments on Beerleaguer next winter between two groups:

1. Those that will argue that his 30 HRs were a fluke and he will revert due to his low BB%.

2. Those that will argue that his 30 HRs are a breakout and point out that he has historically walked a bunch so his BB% will revert.


It'll be much the same as the KK debates in 2008-2010 I'd imagine.

Can we end this "Delmon Young is our everyday RF" charade, please? It's terrible.

I know it's a total surprise, that no one saw coming, but Delmon stinks on offense, defense, and running. He's a 0-tool player.

For the love of God, cut your losses and move on. That was the whole point of the "low risk" signing, right?

Jody must like Angelo . Yeah I work in meth lab right next to you.

NEPP: Oh, good point. That's going to be fun.

They probably won't move Brown to RF and call up Ruf because they don't want to touch Brown. That's why they aren't moving him up in the lineup either.

Meanwhile, over in Camden.....(signed 5/25)
Valdez, W IF .429 Games 3 AB 14 R 3 H 6 2B 1 RBI 3
SO 1

Valdez > Martinez
A Corpse > Martinez

"They probably won't move Brown to RF and call up Ruf because they don't want to touch Brown."

I don't believe that for a second. They don't want to call up Ruf because they think Delmon Young will be good based on their scouting.

Zambrano in and maybe moving Cloyd to the pen in place of Durbin would be fine by me.

Joe D: omg, you're right. All this time I've been holding onto hope that they'll eventually cut DYoung and call up Ruf. But yeah they won't move Brown to RF so as to "not mess w/ him."

Ugh, hope quickly fading...

The fact that Charlie pitched Papelbon doesn't bother me all that much. It was a save situation, Lee was closing in on 100 pitches...fine. I may not agree with it 100%, but whatever.

The fact that Charlie pitched Papelbon based almost solely on being in Boston is inexcusably stupid.

"Players managers" are terrible. Decisions should be made with your head, based on the situation in the game, scouting reports, statistics, players' ability, etc. Not your "gut", emotion and loyalty to players.

I'm the real joe D

On a positive note, Lee was dominant again.

Our Ace is on the hill tonight. To paraphrase: Win tonight and it's two-in-a-row. Win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before.

So Delmon Young is still on the roster playing RF every day because they don't want to mess with Brown?

Tell me how that makes sense.

Wait, don't. I'm done trying to figure out the "logic" behind the things this team has done with the roster.

I say bring Zambrano up and let Durbin hit the showers...at Peruto's house.

I'm not saying that's why they won't shift Brown to RF but I really wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't part of the equation. It's incredibly stupid. I am trying to dumb my thought process down to keep up with them.

Jack:

"I wanted to (finish)," said Lee, who retired 22 of the next 23 batters after allowing a first-inning run. "Pap's been throwing the ball really well so it's hard to argue with him coming in right there, especially being back in Boston. That was big to get us the win, and I'm sure he wanted that opportunity."

Also liked this one:

Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia, who grounded out for the second out in the ninth, said it was strange to see Papelbon in a Phillies uniform. Otherwise, his old friend looked the same.

"I know everyone thinks he's insane, but he's a pretty intelligent pitcher," Pedroia said. "Pap's always going to be like family to me. We've been through a lot together. He did great things here. I hope he does bad for the next couple games (against the Red Sox) and then saves every game for the rest of his life."

In the month of May, the Marlins are 2-16 in vs the rest of the league, and 3-4 vs the Phillies.

I'm gonna admit it right here on Beerleaguer. Philly got too many jews in the stands near RF. It makes me nervous.

That's sad.

It's the trufh, muthaf8kka. At least, I am seeking therapy.

"How do ya beat pythagorean projections? Why, everybody always said a solid bullpen and great managin' of course."

I would argue that it's the other way around. A bad bullpen & Cholly's mishandling of that bad bullpen are the reason for our lousy Pythagorean record and, hence, the reason we're beating that Pythagorean record.

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