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Wednesday, May 29, 2013

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"And, boy, is he swimming."

That whole opening reads like it was written by a pedophile, or Tom McCarthy.

The man's name is Cy Morales. Feels like a loss.

I thought it was really interesting that Adams worked from the windup. Seems that it did the trick...

Race for Futility:

Fish have surged ahead with a 8-game losing streak and now are on pace to win 39 games. Astros are on pace to win 47 games.

Sure, two more home runs, but no walks! What with that?! (insert sarcastic smiley face here)

I thought the Red Sox were a great team but they're not the Yankees and never will be.

Re: fish and Astros. What's the "replacement level" wins and how much have they spent in payroll? As cheap as they are, they could have spent less.

Zolecki: Thirty of the Phillies' past 32 home runs have been solo shots, a byproduct of a .303 on-base percentage, which entered the night sixth-lowest in baseball.

You know who has very quietly had a nice offensive month:

Kratz who was 1-3 with that HR tonight with BB & RBI and now has a .306/.409/.556 (.965 OPS) line in 47 PAs with 4 HRs and 7 RBIs along 8 BBs/8 Ks

As bad as he was offensively in April (.191/.222/.309), he had surged ahead this month to get his overall numbers to a respectable level.

MG-- Nice call. I was particularly getting on Kratz for being abysmal. Nice to see he's turned it around.

I'm a big believer in D Brown, but you have to see this isn't about a low BB rate but 0 BB in 100+ PA.

That's true, MG.

"The Phillies must have devised a game plan to run on Red Sox catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Coming into Wednesday, the Boston backstop had allowed 24 stolen bases in 28 attempts. The Phillies made it 28 in 32 for Saltalamacchia by swiping a season-high four bags."


Kudos to Charlie and Co.!

Don't have the stats yet but it seems that Brown is giving the hitters following him confidence that the particular pitcher is hittable.

Sophist - Not really. Astros only spending $26M this year but I think they pretty much got the okay from Selig & the owners to do so because they bit the bullet to switch leagues.

Fish got a lot of heat and criticism though without Selig saying anything. Spending $50M this year but that includes $12.5M in salaries they dealt and were paying this year. They were really trying to move Nolasco this offseason and I wonder if Selig told them indirectly that he pressured them not to. It would have left them with a $39.5M payroll and only $27.5M actually still on the team.

Difference between reducing payroll to rebuild and what the Fish would have done then this offseason especially with the new stadium opening. Sure it already irks the owners a lot that Loria was guaranteed to make a nice profit this year and largely because of their dollars going into his pockets.

The Phillies must have devised a game plan to run on Saltalamacchia? If so, it was probably something like Revere saying, "We ran on this guy when I was with the Twins," and then a few other players buying into that.

Pls put Howard to rest for two weeks (DL him for knee or something.)
Free Ruf!
Now is the time.

I really wish the Phils would DL Howard. I guess with all of the injuries already they feel they can't but watching him hobble around the bases on that HR trot tonight was kind of pitiful. It's clear as day he is having trouble even jogging on it right now.

Still don't see how Ruf wouldn't better Howard's line this month either (.229/.281/.398 with 3 HRs in 93 PAs).

Revere is obviously the "jewel of denial". Protect him.

Ruf is 4 for 8 since returning. Albeit all singles this is how he starts a run.

Number of days passed since J-Roll last popped-up: 5
Wow!
That's got to be a personal best...

MG - replacement level wins is definitely over 45. Marlins are on track for 39 wins.

Still don't see how Ruf wouldn't better Howard's line this month either (.229/.281/.398 with 3 HRs in 93 PAs).

Posted by: MG


THIS

Make a play for Stanton. Brown for Stanton even up while Dom is hot.

"As bad as [Kratz] was offensively in April (.191/.222/.309), he had surged ahead this month to get his overall numbers to a respectable level."

It hasn't escaped my notice.

"And, boy, is he swimming."

That whole opening reads like it was written by a pedophile, or Tom McCarthy.

[DEAD]

MG: (From the last thread) "It would be nice to have Papelbon tomorrow night but that is not how Cholly rolls. He is only focused on winning today (which is still one of the dumbest managerial philosophy you will see especially in MLB)."

Wait. You're actually faulting Cholly for using Papelbon to close out a game in which we had a 2-run lead & the middle of the RedSox order was coming up? Isn't that precisely what we pay him $13M per year to do? When you've got a 2-run lead in the 9th inning, you go all in to win. You don't rest your best reliever so that he'll be available tomorrow, when we have no idea if he'll even be needed.

I agree they should DL Howard soon as this series is over.

DL Howard for what? They've already said no surgery. Who bats clean-up?

Stanton,YES!

Send Mia. the young bros.

just saw dom's post-game interview. what a nice young man. he told murph he called his parents when he was named "player of the week," and he joked that while mom is always congratulating him, dad is a little harder to get that out of. but he did.

Well, as long as they can hit solo shots like they're the '27 yankees the playoffs are in reach.

It helps to remember that MG is like a politician with talking points. He won't be swayed off of them and he will find a way to go back to them at all times. Charlie managing to win some hypothetical game the next day is a good one.

Also, cut fastball's insane ramblings from the end of the last thread on Hamels were exactly the type of stuff you'd expect from a WIP caller. I'd say it was half-brained but that'd be an insult to people with working brains.

could the phillies be buyers at the deadline? Anyone with decent OBP that can play the outfield would be nice.

Lannan, Utley, and Chooch will all be back in the next monht. I think the phils need to be within 4-5 games of both the division and the wild card with those guys 100% healthy to be buyers at the deadline.

***Anyone with decent OBP that can play the outfield would be nice.***

Yeah, they could use a guy with a decent OBP and power who could also play RF. Maybe a guy like Hunter Pence.

Morales is a Phillies Killer. Has been since 2007 with the Rockies.

Goodie- let's rehash the Pence debate.

FWIW, I was just joking...I have no interest in watching Pence try to field again.

OK, Howard 6 strikeouts in the last two games. I'm for giving the big guy a rest, and bringing up Ruf.

Wow really quiet around here after a win.

Someone complained last night that Galvis has sucked since getting a starting role. Indeed, in his last 10 games (all starts) he has a .437 OPS.

But his BAPIP is .200 (compared to .302 up to 10 games ago). The guy looks to be in BABIP hell right now, hitting a lot of balls hard right at guys. He and Brown could talk.

Galvis isn't the .800 OPS player he was to start the season, but he also isn't as bad as he's looking right now. The hits will start falling again.

Redburb: probably because it seems gauche to complain too much after a win, but no one wants to get too excited about the team, just to get crushed again.

"it seems gauche to complain too much after a win, but no one wants to get too excited about the team, just to get crushed again"

Bingo.

Just as a minor note of comparison:

Jason Heyward- 1850 career plate appearances, 61 home runs (1 every ~30 at bats), 204 RBI, slash line of: .254/.349/.435/.784- 112 OPS+

Domonic Brown- 690 career plate appearances, 25 home runs (1 every ~28 at bats), 90 RBI, slash line of: .244/.310/.427/.738- 98 OPS+

Perhaps the gap in talent is not as large between them two as some posters made it out to be over the years.

TTI - The only comment I would make there is that Heyward is younger than Dom.

And there's a wide gap in defensive skills (Heyward over Dom) IMO. Witness Dom's whiff on Ellsbury's 9th inning "double" last night....

TTI: Heyward is 2 years younger and has 3x the number of at bats, as you've pointed out. His main problem has been injuries.

As long as we're rehashing trades, I'd love to see Bobby Abreu up there getting walks right about now!!!

TTI - Politicians change their talking points all the time and yeah I thought Lee could have finished that game the other night.

The reason that Cholly gave though for using Papelbon was not to clinch the win but to 'make sure Papelbon got to pitch in Boston.' Paraphrashing exactly what he said.

Yeah that was foolish.

Heyward is two years younger, has a not insignificant edge in the categories you posted (the difference between a .349 OBP and a .310 OBP is the difference between above-average and below-average), and is one of the best defensive RF in the game, while Dom is one of the worst defensive LF in the game.

I like Dom. I've long been his biggest supporter on this site, frankly, which anyone who's been here can confirm. His power surge right now is awesome to watch, and definitely the best part of this otherwise forgetful season so far. He's solidfying his place in the team's future.

But when you say things like that, there's no choice but to point out that we shouldn't get carried away here.

I would like to thank whoever was posting under my name at the end of the one thread yesterday for correctly capitalizing DOM in his posts, solid effort. And One Fish Two Fish is a solid read.

That Heyward comparison is hilarious. What's the difference between 23 and 25 and 40 points of OBP? Heyward had a 131 OPS+ in 142 games when he was 20 years-old.

Let's wait and see if Dom can put it all together. That first HR yesterday was something. From RF side it looked like a high FB that would die well before the warning track. Some power.

The point is this- when the topic of Dom Brown has come up over the years it has always been pointed out that offensively Heyward is leaps and bounds better than Brown (Will S. is a huge culprit in this). Everyone recognizes the gap in defense and the age- I assumed we all knew those things since they are kind of facts.

The idea for me is that offensively the gap is maybe not as big as was previously thought. On paper it certainly doesn't appear to be.

A note on his defense: He has the same problem that a lot of younger guys do- trying to dive for everything and turn plays into harder ones. That Ellsbury play last night I think he had a better shot staying on his feet and trying to catch it. At the very least he could've played it on the hop and either held Gomes at second or nailed him at third.

I am having a hard time believing this stat, but i'm pretty sure its true...bare with me.

DOM hit his 10th HR during a streak of games without walking.

The last player hit 10 more HR during a streak of not walking was Ty Wigginton(!!) in 2008.

Wiggington hit 11 HR from 8/3/08-8/31/08 (24 games) without walking.

Since we are re-hashing the Pence trade. . . .jk. . . Singleton is OPSing 2.548 since coming back from suspension with 2 homeruns in 2 games. He seems to have hit the ground running.

That Heyward comparison is hilarious. What's the difference between 23 and 25 and 40 points of OBP? Heyward had a 131 OPS+ in 142 games when he was 20 years-old.

______________________________________

Just as hilarious as what you say my comparison was is your last sentence. I guess since Heyward posted those numbers 3 seasons ago the discussion is over.

jbird: I think- and so did many others- Singleton will be the one guy we traded that we end up regretting letting go.

NEPP and others who whining about the Ellsbury play have a point that he should have caught that ball, but its complete BS to say that a most LF would make that play.

Look around the league and see how many poor LF there are. I watched Justin Upton miss the same play about 3 times this year alone, and I barely see ATL games. I'm sure Lucas Duda would have settled right under that one, huh?

TTI: Don't undersell Cosart & Santana at this point.

Cosart (AAA): 2.65 era, 9.5 k/9 (also 4.8 bb/9)
Santana (AA): .859 ops, 8 hr, 20 years old!

"The idea for me is that offensively the gap is maybe not as big as was previously thought. On paper it certainly doesn't appear to be."

Well, on paper, a difference between a 112 OPS+ and a 98 OPS+ is still a reasonable difference. And not only that, you're comparing them at a point in which Dom is on a serious hot streak and Heyward is in the worst slump of his career.

Now, maybe those things indicate that Dom is actually really really good and Heyward sucks. Or they're just a hot streak and a slump.

But even to make the modest point you're trying to make, you're really having to stretch. A lot.

other left fielders who probably don't get to that ball:

Nate McLouth
Alfonso Soriano
Matt Holliday
Ryan Braun
Michael Brantley
Josh Willingham

Its a crime not to have a Marlins-Astros series on the mlb schedule this year.

We need to combine the Astros pitching staff and the Marlins offense, and play them vs the Independent League All stars.

I hadn't realized it until I looked at GMCarson's blog this morning, but Howard's first error of the season last night also coincided with his first "Howard" of the season. And, sure enough, the Phillies won -- as they almost always do when one of their players commits a Howard.

    ...Also, cut fastball's insane ramblings from the end of the last thread on Hamels were exactly the type of stuff you'd expect from a WIP caller. I'd say it was half-brained but that'd be an insult to people with working brains.

    Posted by: The Truth Injection | Thursday, May 30, 2013 at 07:37 AM

Who the he88 are you anyway? The "Church Lady" on SNL? If you had a bleepin' clue what integrity meant, you'd understand my comparison of Hamels' evasive and whiney ramblings, and Doc Halladay's righteous and upstanding take on how he's let Phillies fans down. One pitcher gets all of my respect; one gets none.

Figure it out for yourself. Then study Shakespeare; I hear he was pretty good at laying out tragedy and comedy in subtle, cogent ways. Oh, that's right, you're an English teacher. Who could of guessed?

If I'm going to be insulted I'll take it like a man from any of many intelligent, stats-savvy posters (e.g.; Fata; b_a_p; Sophist). Your reference to "WIP callers" is a lame and shopworn cliche. I'm fairly sure i"m not the only one here who's sick of that lazy writer's "beat down".

I'd take an insult from Jack as an honor, also. However, I've never seen him insult anyone. He -- and most other's -- are way too classy.

jbird: It is still bizarre to me that Santana was the throw in on that Pence deal.

Baffling to me too that people who advocate playing for the now and the future at the same time will continue to defend that Pence deal by Amaro. That trade will haunt

cut_fastball: You want to claim that Fata, Jack, BAP, and Sophist don't insult people? Hilarious. They may not do it as directly as others but they most certainly do- as does everyone else on this blog at one point or another. No one is innocent of that. Whoever says they are is just lying to gain favor with the masses.

As for your inane ramblings. Read plenty of Shakespeare and even he would scratch his head at the line of logic you were putting out there in the last thread.

If you were trying to do comedy you were doing a poor job of it. If you were trying to lay out some heavy handed analogy to compare tragedy and comedy than I apologize for calling you a WIP caller- you are an even lower mouthbreather than that.

If it helps you though I can call you a Fanatic sports radio caller. Is that better?

For all the love that Tommy Joseph has gotten as the Phils catcher of the future, Cameron Rupp is having a really nice year at Reading.

He's hitting .256/.345/.496 with 8 HRs. I don't know what the defensive reports are on him--those are obviously key.

And sure, he's 24, but I don't really care about age that much with a catcher--look at Chooch, who didn't come up until he was 27 or 28. If you can get a guy like Rupp to be a decent defensive catcher with some patience and pop in his prime years (26-29) for cheap, that would be pretty nice.

TTI - You are wired this morning.

MG: End of the year and I am getting punchy. Plus I deal with inane logic for a living- I generally hope to find sound logic here.

Cameron Rupp has all the makings so far of being a solid back-up catcher in the majors. And there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. It will be interesting to see how he progresses this season.

I think defense was always his strong point throughout college.

Another farm note: Kelly Dugan is putting together a nice season in Clearwater.

You'd be hard pressed to find someone on BL that has not insulted another poster. GBrettfan maybe, who has always stayed above the fray.

Iceman: No word on if cut will take insults from you yet.

The real question for tonight is- will the Phillies continue their allergic reaction to the .500 mark?

"Plus I deal with inane logic for a living- I generally hope to find sound logic here."

I'll bet your high school kids have nothing on my clientele when it comes to inane logic. A typical letter: "Mr. BAP, I was wrongly convicted. The officer lied on the stand. He said my shirt was mint green, when anyone could see that it was olive green."

anyone think that this is a fake TTI?

It looks like there will be an outfielder available around the Phillies draft pick spot named Austin Wilson. He will be a major Sophie's choice for Amaro.

Positive side- Tools!!He is a student at Stanford University

Negative side- An OBP above .400 in college showing good patience at the plate. We can't have that.

Uehara hadn't allowed a run in all but one of his May appearances until DOM took him yard.

Not that anyone follows my opinions on anything, but I've been very vocally dismissive of Dom Brown prior to this season. I'm happy to be shown wrong thus far. Even if he cools off to and provides something like a 750 OPS rest of the way which should be doable with a modicum of walks coming back, I will be pleased.

P.S. Iceman is a complete kneebiter.

(Just getting in a requisite insult)

It's almost as if Dom walked 3 times tonight and we got shutout a lot of the saber devotees would be happier.

The Phillies are on a 12-9 run against some quality teams. It hasn't been pretty, but that's the reality. No doubt it has helped that you have the leading NL home-run hitter this month.

If he had walked more, perhaps Kratz and Galvis would have hit some two-run bombs and things would be better.

Dom Brown has 187 ABs so far this year. He had 187 last year and 184 the year before that.

XBH:
2011: 16
2012: 18
2013: 21

Ks:
2011: 35
2012: 34
2013: 35

HR:
2011: 5
2012: 5
2013: 13

BB:
2011: 25
2012: 21
2013: 9

Of course, walks don't count as ABs and he's 12-14 PAs behind his total from the last 2 years. So if he walks in every single one of those 12-14 PAs, he'll have walked about the same number of times as well.

BAP: That is pretty bad, but I do get stuff in the same ballpark just of a much less erious variety. I had students turn in research papers on Great Expectations. One student cited Cliff Notes throughout the paper. And that was in an Honors class.

AP Students had to read The Awakening and write a response. Half the students didn't underline the title of the book. One student said, "This book should be called The Lady who Sleeps Around." I said, "She sleeps with one maybe two guys." His response? "That's not what Shmoop said." (Shmoop is another Cliff Notes type site)

At least my classes did real well with 1984 and for the last week of school with the seniors we are discussing existentialism using Groundhog Day. They are enjoying that.

DOM has 10 HR in May in the #6 hole.

MYoung at #3: .280 OBP in May
Howard at #4: .280 OBP in May
DYoung at #5: .273 OBP in May

Awesome lineup construction.

lorecore: Basically every player on the team has a sub-.300 OBP, so there's not really much they can do about it.

I'm having flash backs to when I was a high school English teacher. The worst thing I ever got was, "She was uste him being around." Uste instead of "used to." Yes, English was this kid's native language.

TTI: I'll bet Shmoop would have a thing or two to say about the Jayson Werth-Chase Utley situation. Or about Pat Burrell's night life.

Dom Brown OPS vs. LHP in 2013: .985

Oh, and I never insult anyone on BL. I hate Internet fights.

Awesome lineup construction.

Lineup construction (ie a HUGE part of a manager's job) has never really been Charlie's strong suit.

What is his strong suit, you ask? Uh...

jack: yeah good point i guess.

TTI, sounds to me like we have a generation of lazy kids who try to use the internet to shortcut the process of actually learning?

Unfortunately all Charlie can do is some minor tinkering...Amaro has provided him with a lineup devoid of patience and lacking in power.

To add to lorecore's earlier post:

Frandsen: .391 OBP in May
Revere: .387 OBP in May
Mayberry: .313 OBP in May

Not that those numbers are going to set the world on fire, but when a team is struggling to score, lineup construction becomes more important. For a team that has preached "playing the hot hand" for the better part of a decade, I've rarely seen it in practice.

I'm not saying it's a no-brainer. It's a delicate balance and tough to find the "right" lineup. But, something's got to give. If you want to leave Dom in the 6-hole, fine. I get it. But get some guys ahead of him that will get on base.

(And I'm also not saying that Frandsen and Mayberry should play everyday. I hope my point is obvious, but I'm sure someone will misconstrue what I wrote. It is BL, after all.)

RBill, Charlie runs a good clubhouse and maintains an even keel during the ups and downs of a season.

There is a lot to be said for that.

His predecessor, Larry Bowa, while blessed with a sound baseball mind and knowledge of the game, would rage and rag about the slightest missteps (as if any team has ever been or could ever be error free, etc.) that occurred to the point where it wore on his players.

IMHO, the game is too hard for players to have to be looking over their shoulders all the time to see whether their manager is grimacing or gesticulating because of a misplay or a bad PA.

Jack's point is valid. You can only play the hand you're dealt. The team is not getting on base enough, period. That's not Charlie's fault whatsoever. But when that happens, you need to figure out a way to maximize your scoring chances when you have a red hot player in the lineup. It hasn't happened, and that's the problem.

TTI - It's not that it happened three years ago. It's just that Heyward's age 20 OPS+ was the best by a 20-year old since A-Rod's. His .393 OBP is the 5th highest by a 20-year old and the best since Ted Williams (he had almost 100 BB). Given his age and injury history, it's hard to say how he'll hold up, but I'm not ready to say he and Brown are similar offensive players. When Brown was 20, he had a sub-.800 OPS season in Lakewood.

I mean, Revere had like a .050 OBP in April. Charlie can't just move the order around every day based on who had a good last 6 games.

There's not really any statistical proof that being "hot" is actually predictive. You never know when a hot streak is going to end and a slump start. So you go based on what their overall skillsets are.

It's 90% on Amaro for the roster, but a more imaginative manager could use platoons correctly, tweek the lineup here and there, and get more than Manual has. Frandsen has crushed lefties over the last two seasons (completely crushed), but we continue to run Mayberry or Young out there against RHP. The BP management has been discussed. Probably only talking about the difference of 1-2 wins at most.

but I'm not ready to say he and Brown are similar offensive players

____________________________

And in actuality- neither did I. So what is your issue with what I said?

My exact words are that maybe the gap between the two offensively is not as big as some posters made it out to be originally. That is all.

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