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Wednesday, April 17, 2013

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Production™

"The Phillies have a .291 team OBP. Their OBP in 2007 was .354. It dropped to .334 by 2009 and has decreased every year since."

Production!

But, seriously, on some of these fronts (Revere) it's about patience. He's had a bad start. On the other hand, we need a GM who knows how to value players.

By players I mean position players. Amaro seems pretty good on the pitching front, and even seems to have learned a few lessons about assembling a 'pen.

Clearly, they need to fire their batting coach(es).

Is this post implying that maybe Ben Revere shouldn't be hitting leadoff?

I think Charlie should pinch hit with Jenkins when this game finally starts up again.

Homer Bailey was really, really good last night. He probably would have shut down most, if not all offenses last night.

And if the Phillies don't fix their aversion to walks this year, they'll once again be, at best, an average offensive team. Most likely, they'll be below average.

I can't imagine this being true - but I have such a strong feeling that the Phillies were aware they were patronized as a team lacking in the new wave of sabremetrics compared to the rest of the league...and have begun playing the role on purpose to prove a point. Like, they are trying to prove the stereotype correct.

Why Revere is hitting leadoff on this team is still a mystery to me.

"Most likely, they'll be below average."

Oh, I'm fairly positive they're going to be below-average on offense. They have no power, and they don't get on base. How are you supposed to score runs like that?

As I mentioned on Twitter, Ben Revere doesn't simply fail to set the table, he burns down your dining room & throws the entire meal out of the kitchen window. Weakly. On three or four hops.

"Oh, I'm fairly positive they're going to be below-average on offense."

You said that last year, and they ended up being exactly average.

So Delmon Young's .296 OBP (from 2012) will actually be a net positive for the team.

.200/.258/.382, 62 PA

.207/.258/.207, 63 PA


Top slash line?: Josh Hamilton

Bottom?: Ben Revere

Not equating the two, Hamilton is the far better hitter (MOTO), but, thus far, the BA/OBP are eerily similar.

"Something that strikes me on Revere, always has, and the clips only further solidified it.

With his lack of power you would think of him more as a slap type hitter. But he really isn't that. He gets good cuts at balls and hits a good amount of line drives. Just doesn't drive the ball really.

Posted by: The Truth Injection | Thursday, January 03, 2013 at 08:58 PM

and by "good amount of line drives" I mean, he doesn't really slap or chop things into the ground necessarily. He hits balls hard.

Posted by: The Truth Injection | Thursday, January 03, 2013 at 09:00 PM"


I post those as proof that I'm not mischaracterizing TTI. That is exactly what he said about Revere, in its full context.

I love how beerleaguer is now begging for JRoll back in the leadoff spot. Would be funny to re-read comments WRT JRoll batting #1 in threads the last two seasons....

If the Phils score 10 runs before this game ends, you'll have to take your post down Corey.

I heard that Revere is still leading off because Rollins REFUSES to bat first!

Rollins (.226/.281/.377) is only a "better" option for batting leadoff by virtue of Revere being so indescribably terrible at it.

Revere is a really lousy hitter. He shouldn't be getting the most plate appearances for any team.

GTown: Screw the kids, I want a cool backpack for me.

I love how beerleaguer is now begging for JRoll back in the leadoff spot. Would be funny to re-read comments WRT JRoll batting #1 in threads the last two seasons....

Posted by: nonamePHame | Wednesday, April 17, 2013 at 11:57 AM

Really? Maybe I'm missing something but I can't remember reading any posts saying Rollins should be batting leadoff. This is such a typical told you so assinine comment. The fact is that the Phils continue to assemble rosters with little to know attention paid to OBP.

Phillibuster: Damn skippy! I'm tired of getting cheap hats. Really, that's all they can come up w/ for the 15+ set? A coupon for free chicken & donuts from the Federal stand would be nice ...

the Phillies RHB are the worst RHB vs LHP in the entire league.

.175/.214/.225 vs LHP as RHB.

That is unreal.

GTown: You're damn right it would be!

Having not been able to attend yet, however, does FedNut treat their stand there like their 2 non-ballpark locations (i.e.: "we'll sell it to you until we run out")?

If not, then that's almost worth the cost of SRO tickets all on its own.

I've been calling for Revere at the bottom of the order from the start. Really don't want someone with such a low OPS to get the most at bats for this team.

I think we should look into Rickey Henderson. I'm pretty sure he could roll out of bed at 54 and get a obp of .365 with 30 stolen bases.

Only the Marlins Pirates and Phillies LHBs have worse numbers than the Phillies RHBs vs left handed pitchers.


If the Phillies want to pay attention to OBP in lineup construction, I think we all know who should be leading off.

He's the only guy on the team with a 1.500 OPS.

We went from joking about Delmon Young's return being a positive change to now being actually serious about it.

Phillibuster,

I can't agree with you more on that. Only problem is that he's the only guy suited for the 2 and the 3 hole on this team as well. Real issue is that this lineup is built with about five 6 and 7 hole hitters.

"Homer Bailey was really, really good last night."

He seemed to be pretty good, but I find it difficult to tell when a pitcher is facing the Phillies. It's like if you sent Domonic Brown to the GCL and he raked against 18-year old. Is it because he's swinging the bat well, or is it because he's just beating up on inferior competition? There's really no way to draw the distinction.

Thing that has struck me about Revere is how bad is at getting out of the box especially given he is a LH hitter who has a relatively compact swing.

I have to believe if he improved there that he would have beat out a couple more GBs already (2-3).

Subtle thing but for a guy who hits a ton of weak ground balls in the infield it is an issue. Strikes me as a guy who would have benefited playing more on the turf at the Vet as some of his weak dinks would have been through the infield a bit quicker.

I more or less said that I expect Rollins to be reinserted into the leadoff position at some point. I did not say I thought it was a good thing. I agree with G-Town that Rollins only looks good in comparison to Revere, from what we've seen of him so far. But this is like being asked to choose the form of poison by which you would prefer to die.

Revere should definitely bat 8th right now. But it doesn't follow that Rollins should bat leadoff. Against RHP, I'd probably try Dom in the leadoff spot because he's one of the few guys in the lineup who has demonstrated an ability to take walks (even though he hasn't done much of it this year).

But it really doesn't much matter. Adjusting the order of this lineup is like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. The offense is going to stink no matter what order you put the batters in.

541: Er... John Lannan is the only guy on the team with a 1.500 OPS...

I tried to use a "joking" tag, but this board is so literal it automatically hides anything inside the carets.

Phillies OBPs:

Revere: .258
Rollins: .281 (and his last hit was a week ago today)
Dom: .278
Howard: .276
Kratz: .163
Quintero: .182

In the NL, turning the lineup over is a big deal, and the Phillies #8 hitters have the lowest OBP in the entire league (.189). Combine the worst #8 hitters with the pitchers(.172) and then the 2nd to worst #1 hitters (.258) , and you are almost completely incapable of scoring in back to back innings, since no matter what your 2-7 hitters do, they will always be bookended by 8-9-1.

I'd bat Nix leadoff.

Understand that yes his start to the season does not help my case out any but:

--"To me there are different types of singles hitters. I'm thinking of guys who are like Pierre that just try to ground things to the left side and beat them out to first. Or sort of slap things into the ground and beat it out.

Revere does that to some degree, but on top of that he does hit balls hard and gets good cuts at balls. So while he is a ground ball specialist it is not as if he necessarily hits balls soft. Not all singles hitters are created the same."

--"It isn't like I am saying he is freakin' Babe Ruth or anything and I even went back to amend my first comment because I realized it was kind of silly to say he hit a good amount of line drives when in the grand scheme of things he doesn't."

The Jack said this:

--"But the idea that Revere is some sort of laser line drive hitter who mysteriously only has 33 extra base hits in 1064 plate appearances in his career (seriously) is laughable. If he hit the ball as hard as TTI claims, he'd have way more doubles and triples." (I guess that isn't misquoting someone)

Me again:

--"And lastly- hitting balls hard would not necessarily mean more extra base hits. It means nothing more than hitting the ball hard. I even said- he doesn't drive the ball. But he isn't a dink and dunk type singles hitter. he does some of that but it isn't solely how he gets his hits."

Again, i realize that his start to season does not help me any, but he will turn it around.

Jack- you are a disingenuous assho!e on this board. You have no interest in discussing the Phillies, or even in them doing well- you just want to be able to come on here and be right and act like you are some great seer. Even guys like Fata, BAP, and GTown who i disagree with often i at least believe they are fans of the team. You are nothing but a weasley little troll who is a waste of space, air, and sperm. And you're little implication of me being a racist yesterday was the final straw for me in how i will treat you in discussions on here. You don't give respect and don't deserve respect in discussions.

"But he isn't a dink and dunk type singles hitter. he does some of that but it isn't solely how he gets his hits."

True. Very occasionally he will get a bunt base hit.

"I think we should look into Rickey Henderson. I'm pretty sure he could roll out of bed at 54 and get a obp of .365 with 30 stolen bases."


jbird, the problem is that because of his power Charlie and RAJ would want him farther down in the lineup so he can "produce".

Phillibuster: The Federal Donuts stand at CBP (located where McNally's Schmitter used to be sold) http://bit.ly/173qCTq

Not my pic, but you get the idea. More limited menu, & a 75¢ increase in price on the Half + Donut. So far as I can tell they keep cooking & selling throughout the game. Dunno how that might change as the season progresses & they refine their demand numbers, though. Also, the Schmitter isn't gone, it just moved down closer to the LF Gate.

tti: you think bap is fan of this team? You really have lost it.

gtown: whats their "super premium beer" selection?

not to worry fellas, who needs guys on base as long as Ruben can keep finding his guys who "produce"?

As long as Rube is the gm, I doubt we will break out of the lower third in MLB as far as OBP is concerned

lorecore: That I do not know. Maybe someone else here has checked it out. If not, I'll take a look when I'm next there.

It's time to give the binoculars back to Billmeyer

1) fastest guy
2) someone else
3) best hitter
4) biggest guy
5) someone else
6) someone else
7) someone else
8) catcher
9) pitcher

okay alright - I recommend laser pointers at the opposing pitcher too.

timr,you almost had it right:

1) fastest dude
2) some dude
3) best hitter dude
4) biggest dude
5) some dude
6) some dude
7) some dude
8) catcher dude
9) pitcher dude


There, it's correct now.

Were Michael Young hitting in the 2-spot, we could label that the "professional hitter" spot, since he would've replaced Placido Polanco, who was also considered a "professional hitter."

Alas, the two-spot remains reserved for some dude.

Great stats, Corey.

The binoculars and laser pointers are cool and all, but maybe we can do better than that.

Let's have a Jonathan Papelbon "Paintball Gun Night," and use the visiting team as targets. I mean, we'd let them use protective gear and all...

Phillibuster,

Brain fart on my part. Not sure why I looked at 1.5 and thought Utley, but still pretty crazy that Utley has a .930 OPS.

In a perfect world the Phils would have someone else who could bat in the 3 hole and be able to put Utley and his career .380 OBP up at the top (considering all the knee issues, the man can still run as well). But alas, that's not the case.

From those proposed lineups, I can only conclude that our team is comprised primarly of "some dudes."

That sums it up quite astutely.

timr: I think you're giving cholly a little too much credit for being flexible. It's more like this:

1) fastest guy
2) 2nd fastest guy (or his backup)
3) best hitter
4) best power hitter (or his backup)
5) someone else
6) someone else
7) someone else
8) catcher
9) pitcher

It brings shivers down my spine that at one point last year, Hector Luna was filling the role of "biggest guy".

I don't think I can really weigh in on the Revere slap-hitting issue until I know the full context of the debate between Jack and TTI. Can someone just post the entire thread in here with play-by-play and annotation? Thanks in advance.

I'll have you know that Hector Luna has hit in 17 straight games to start the season for the Chunichi Dragons.

BAP: Except Polanco hit 2nd over Victorino the years they were both here, and Shane was obviously faster than Polly.

So I think #2 should be "most like veteran presence, like, you know" until further notice.

In 2010, Carlos Ruiz, coming off a season in which he posted an OPS+ of 105, and an OBP of .355, never made it higher than the 6th spot in the order, and that was for a grand total of 5 plate appearances.

In 2011, Carlos Ruiz, coming off a season in which he posted an OPS+ of 127 (higher than Ryan Howard's OPS+ in 2011), and an OBP of .371, never made it higher than the 6th spot in the order, and that was for a grand total of 118 plate appearances.

It wasn't until 2012, and it took nearly half our team dying, for Ruiz to get above the 6th spot in the order.

Now, take Ben Revere: OPS+ of 72 and OBP of .310 in 2011, and an OPS+ of 89 and an OBP of .333 last year.

Wham, right to the leadoff spot!!

Can we just call #2 "Professional hitter dude"?

GTown: I'm incredibly sad that they don't have any of the spice seasonings (za'atar fo' life, yo), but I can understand why they'd limit themselves - especially to start.

Now, if Solomonov were to open a Zahav location at CBP...

Also, you can see "The Schmitter" in the reflection of the glass in FedNut's window in that picture!

I looked at some the Phillies "luck" stats like 2out RISP, BABIP, high leverage, etc. and they are basically in the middle of the pack in the NL for all categories.

So theres no more hope that we'll see them start getting better luck. They are actually the 5th best team with RISP with a .824 OPS in 120 PA (which is middle of pack as well).

541: Utley has definitely been deadly, but his coolness (other than the PH HR) over the past few is something we should also expect.

I think an OPS in the .825 range, assuming he stays healthy, is in the cards for the end of the season. Still awesome, but tempered by a dose of reality.

Lore: How much of that is BA and how much slugging?

Oh yeah, bap, obviously if you're playing in place of someone that means you take that guy's spot in the lineup. We all understand that.

It seems very simple to me... Ben is not a leadoff hitter and won't be. We don't have a great leadoff hitter. You have to balance between putting people where they should be and what is best for the team... Start with the two hole, and put M Young where he belongs and follow him with Utley where he belongs in 3 spot. Howard is not going to hit 45 homers and he is not going to hit lefties and he is not going to cut down his strikeouts. He does somethings well... BAT HIM 5!!! This separates him and Utley and gets Ryan out of the 4 spot. We don't have a 4 hitter. When D Young comes back try him there... When Ruiz comes back let him hit 6 behind Howard. Seven is Brown and yes hit Ben 8... leaving Rollins back up at 1. Then call a meeting with Rube and let him know we need a 1 and 4 hitter by this time next year!

.271 AVG (6th)
.353 OBP (7th)
.461 SLG (5th)

very even distribution.

I'm surprised the slugging in so high. Although I bet it was helped by our multi-run HRs back during the Mets series.

Jack: Good point. I've made some further amendments. I've also rearranged the order to closer approximate the actual process by which Cholly arrives at his lineup decision:

Cleanup hitter: Best power guy or his backup

8 and 9 holes: Catcher and pitcher

Leadoff: Rollins, Rollins' backup, or guy even faster than Rollins

3-hole: Best hitter. If best hitter is out, Rollins (or his backup); if Rollins is batting leadoff, then best hitter's backup.

2-hole: If not batting leadoff or 3rd, then Rollins (or his backup). Otherwise, professional hitter who doesn't strike out much.

5-6-7: Everyone else. Order determined by random drawing to be held 3 hours before game time.

Fata's 1:01 post is such a sobering fact about the field manager it borders on insanity.

It's not like it's really a revolutionary idea to have an OBP guy in the #1 spot regardless of speed.

Was Charlie not alive for Wade Boggs' entire career?

And if you think those guidelines are complicated, you should see his guidelines for bullpen usage!

Agreed that Utley's OPS is definitely going to dip at some point.

However, the dip will most likely occur in slugging, while his OBP actually stands to probably increase a little bit.

Once again proving that the best leadoff hitter option is already on the team, but he's forced to be the 3 hole hitter, because there is nobody else who can hit for average and power in the lineup.

I think you could justify the difference of OBP by about 25-30 points with speed on the basepaths. As in, a .330 OBP speedster is probably good enough to bat ahead of a .355 OBP base clogger in the lineup.

Obviously we don't have either type of player on the team right now but the hope is that Revere and Ruiz will be those players sometime soon.

I don't know why you guys got to obsess about that OPB thingie. Everyone who knows anything (and by that I clearly don't mean stupid beerleaguer poster boys) know that what's important is production. Production is what matters and production is what gets produced when production is happening. So stop with the stupid OPB thingie because what we're after is production.

BAP: Oh, the bullpen one is easy.

9th inning or later(save situation): Closer
9th inning or later(non-save situation, including tie games on the road): Pitcher much, much worse than the closer, possibly Wilson Valdez (never the closer)
8th inning: 8th inning guy, and if one doesn't exist, then guy who was a good 8th inning guy six years ago (note: never the closer. Never, ever, the closer)
7th inning: Chad Durbin
6th inning: Third-best lefty
5th inning: Second-best lefty

541: good point. You can't look at 1 single player and say "he should bat here" without contest of his surrounding players.

It goes back to the prevailing wisdom that you can only optimize a lineup to a certain amount, which isn't that much when you've got such low OBP all over the lineup.

Best reliever: Use with 3-run lead or less in final inning; in top half of 9th inning (or later) of tied game at home; or in 9th inning of blowout if he hasn't pitched in 3+ days. IMPORTANT: DO NOT USE IN ANY OTHER SITUATION. BAD THINGS WILL HAPPEN IF YOU DO.

2nd best reliever: Use in 8th inning if lead is 3 runs or less, or in blowout game if he hasn't pitched in 3+ games. IMPORTANT: DO NOT USE IN ANY OTHER SITUATION. BAD THINGS WILL HAPPEN IF YOU DO.

3rd best reliever: Use in 7th inning if lead is 3 runs or less, or in blowout game if he hasn't pitched in 3+ games. IMPORTANT: DO NOT USE IN ANY OTHER SITUATION. BAD THINGS WILL HAPPEN IF YOU DO.

LOOGY: Use against left-handed batter. If he gets him out, leave him in to pitch full inning. IMPORTANT: IF IT IS THE 6TH INNING OR EARLIER, RESIST THE TEMPTATION TO USE YOUR BEST, 2ND BEST, OR 3RD BEST RELIEVER -- EVEN IF ONE OF THEM IS LEFT-HANDED AND THE SITUATION IS IMPORTANT. BAD THINGS WILL HAPPEN IF YOU DO.

Other Bullpen Guys: Use, at your discretion, in all other situations.

Must C Coulditpossiblyhappen: The Braves are down 0-1 after 5. Could they possibly lose a 2nd game?

<dramatic music>

Mick: Added amusement was, it was Francoeur who got the RBI.

With the header about offense, I'm patiently waiting for the patented DPatrone post.

"Was Charlie not alive for Wade Boggs' entire career?"

Jack, Pete Rose was not exactly a speed demon either.

I would swap out "BAD THINGS WILL HAPPEN IF YOU DO"

with

"OLD SCHOOL PEERS WILL TSK TSK YOUR JUDGMENT AND SCOWL BECAUSE OF THAT ONE TIME THEY ALL REMEMBER WHERE SUCH A STRATEGY DIDNT WORK OUT"

Guys. Guys. Come on now. Just because you've gotten your hands on the bullpen manual doesn't mean you should go posting it on the internet.

Other teams' managers comb through internet message boards on a regular basis to try to figure out the opposition's strategies.

"LOOGY: Use against left-handed batter. If he gets him out, leave him in to pitch full inning"

I, quite literally, laughed out loud upon reading this part (and got some funny looks from co-workers). As the distinguished Homer Simpson once said "It's funny 'cause it's true."

BAP - That's pretty close to Cholly's 'Paint by Numbers' bullpen although it does get a bit messed up when the Phils are behind.

What baffles me is that I bet if Adams were available last night, he would have used him in the bottom of the 9th inning.

We don't know, because Adams likely wasn't available last night, and he's not going to burn Aumont tonight and put Adams in there (he may, but I doubt it).

But I think Charlie understands the concept of using your best reliever available when you're in a tie game in the bottom of the 9th or later on the road. But he will NOT use his closer.

Just strange.

Why are we typing "charlie manuel" instead of "every manager in the league"?

I find myself longing for the days when Frank Lucchesi would throw his lineup in a hat and bat them whatever way he pulled them out.

Now, THAT was old school. And in fact, the lineup construction could not possibly be any worse than what's happening now.

After watching a couple weeks of Revere, I do long for the days of Rollins leading off. Not only that, I long for any day that's not a day with Revere leading off. At least with Rollins, there was a chance he'd hit a double, even though he's not a good leadoff hitter.

Seems to me, other than throwing the names in a hat, Utley followed by MYoung, Dom Brown, Mayberry/DYoung, Howard, anyone at all, pitcher, Revere would be a much better lineup than the ones we're seeing. But in reality, it's all the same players who can't hit in some other order. Not a major difference.

And if Rube doesn't deserve the blame for this mess of an offense, then who does?

I love how in the last thread, BAP cherry picks one thread and a few comments to prove that the vast majority of posters here fawn over a vast majority of the things Rizzo does. It has been an ongoing theme for more than a year here. People like Fata know it and plead ignorance.

""I know it can seem like some of us are just praising everything Rizzo does, and so I understand why people are fighting back on it. But he just happens to be doing a lot of good things."

This quote sums it up perfectly. And like TTI says, it's fine to have the opinion that he has made the right move 99% of the time. Just don't act like it isn't true. I'm not going back through every thread. We all read the comments here. If you're claiming it's not true, you either have a terrible memory or you're just a disingenuous prick.

I enjoyed BAP's random drawing to determine the 5th, 6th & 7th spot in the lineup.

On dissing Revere, we're falling into the small sample size trap. I'd give him some more time.

On hitting season, when does it start? Like Daffy Duck says, "It's Duck Season!"

smitty - If the offense picks up and plays better than league average over the next 13 games, will RAJ get the credit for that too?

And if Rube doesn't deserve the blame for this mess of an offense, then who does?

Chooch deserves a portion of the blame. The rest is entirely on r00b.

Iceman, just shut up. Christ, haven't we beaten this thing to death? You and TTI are demonstrably wrong. Deal with it.

What I find funny was the tangent that TBag and Wheels went on during the Miami series. Can't remember which game or specific spot the topic came up, but they literally started talking about how Cholly had told them how challenging it can be when the lineup, late in a game, comes up and he had 3 straight lefties due up. Something along the lines of how it makes it easy for the other team to use a LOOGY when that portion of the lineup comes up.

At no point was it ever brought up or insinuated that they ENTIRE dynamic is one that is brought on by Cholly himself!!! Basically, they were resigning themselves to the fact that the Phillies are susceptible to being challenged by LOOGY's, but at no point did anyone offer up the option of, you know, maybe throwing a RH bat in there. I just found it baffling that the whole conversation revolved around some unspoken conventional wisdom that there was no other real alternative, and we (including Cholly) need to resign ourselves to the fact that it's a challenge that we'll have to face. Wish I could find the exact verbiage or a transcript of the conversation.

Iceman: The head in the sand crew won't be denied.

Mike Rizzo can do no wrong.

I look forward to February 2014 when we can all go back and quote "beerleaguer" as saying that Mike Rizzo can do no wrong.

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