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Tuesday, April 16, 2013

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Corey: On CSN, an article mentioned that Manuel said the primary reason he didn't bring Adams in was that he wasn't warm (since the HR came with 2 outs and Revere grounded rapidly after, and only Horst had been warming while they were down 2).

Doesn't that complicate the issue, somewhat, of whether the right move was made last night vis-a-vis Adams, at least (as opposed to why Horst over Bastardo, say)?

Yea, no argument here that Adams should have started the inning. Simply saying that Charlie shouldn't have been leery of bringing him in later in the 8th. That's what he's getting paid for.

No argument on that front here.

I hadn't thought he was, particularly, based on the quote, but if that's not the case then... Only thing I can think of is the rest issue.

Philibuster: I pointed out that the Phillies haven't drafted or signed an amateur that has contributed for ANYONE, not just the Phillies themselves. The team has been able to ameliorate this failure through trades and free agency, but that doesn't mean it's not an issue. If you're going to put words in my mouth and tell me what I'm arguing and conflating, then please, bother to read what I wrote 1st. You are either ignoring or mis-characterizing 1/2 of what I penned.

From the last thread, I want to express my fatigue in seeing history repeat itself:

"Pitching will sink or swim this team this year."

Well then let's stop wasting great pitching efforts by Cliff Lee. I'm tired of seeing too many Cliff Lee games wind up in the loss column when they should be in the win column. Last year he pitched at a level that should have resulted in 15 to 20 wins and winds up with six. That's a loss of ten games for the Phillies which a team trying to earn a playoff spot can ill afford to lose. Last night felt like the same old same old.

Get a few runs while dude is pitching and he'll bring home a pile of wins.

Charlie's quote was: "Actually, with Adams, we’re using him a lot. I’m concerned about him. We were kind of hesitant [to use him]."

DOM better pick it up soon or he's going to get platooned. Huge disappointment so far to me, he should have destroyed the ball vs the last 3-4 RH starters. Instead he is just looping a single here and there to stay afloat, but nothing much else.

And to play him in LF while our CF/RF keep dribbling in throws to the infield is the biggest crime of the whole season to me.

repost:

bap, the other reason guys like DPat get killed here is he comes on tooting his own horn 13 games into the season, and though game 162 had just been played.

Worse yet, he uses a 4 game sample size as though it has some sort of validity to it.


Does anyone think the Reds offense is as bad as the team that scored 7 runs in 4 games and went 0 - 4? Do you think that those 4 games are enough to draw conclusions about the Reds' offense?

If you don't, then how do you presume to evaluate the Phillies offense based on the same sample size? Seems like a double standard to me to do so.


Note: I am not defending the Phillies, their FO, the manager, or any of the players. I just think many here need to be a bit more consistent in their application of sample sizes to draw definitive conclusions.

For instance, there was speculation earlier in the thread about DBrown, how poorly he has started, and that maybe this proves that his historical slash line is a valid measure of what he is capable of doing at the plate.

Were any of these same "evaluators/speculators" saying that his ST stats were not to be taken seriously because of the sample size?

Didn't he have more PA in ST?

repost:

Players not worth bitching about

Lee - Obviously

Utley - Is he perfect? No. Still awful against LH's? Yep. But considering last year vs this year, I'm grateful for what we are getting.

Adams - Put in a tough spot last night. These things happen. Pretty much what I've expected.

Paps - Bad outing to start the season, but has been terrific since. Not his fault he's overpaid. Done exactly what has been asked of him.

Michael Young - Sure his D stinks, but was anybody expecting it to be good? Again, that one's on the GM. Getting a .931 OPS out of a very thin position is a plus. Definitely more of a reason this team is near .500 than not.

Bastardo - 5 IP, 0 ER's (no inherited runners) 5k's, 2BB's. Sooner or later Chollie's gonna have to start using him more. Right now, he goes to Horst before Bastardo, but I'd rather risk Bastardo getting wild than suffer through Horst anymore.

Galvis - Hits when he's in, d has been fine. Can't really complain too much.

Lannan - Something tells me he won't be on this list all year.

Frandsen - Hasn't exactly been great. But he's been the only one who's shown the willingness to perform as a hitter in a true pressure position.

I'm pining for Vernon Odom. I bet he could drive the ball a little.

This comment from the prior thread made me bust out laughing. I almost ran into ol' Vern -- quite literally -- outside of City Hall one day. He was between on-air takes, & clearly wasn't happy about how things had been going. I was treated to an impressive display of colorful verbiage. You can damn well bet he wouldn't take last night's epic duvet soiling vs. All-Universe SP Bronson Arroyo quietly.

Hahahaha I imagine ol Vern getting angry quite often. They always put him in the crossfire of some of Philadelphia's most beautiful neighborhoods. He should have been happy to be in front of City Hall and not in North Philly.

Five-4-One, I like your list of Phillies not worth complaining about. I would add Rollins to the list, because he has been on base in nearly every game and played his usual solid defense.

I might add Nixberry, too, for I think their combined numbers have been pretty decent. One of the reporters tweeted about it a day or two ago, although I don't remember what the numbers were.

I might not add Nixberry, however, because they are the kind of player that when they fail, it feels pretty frustrating.

I still like Revere but want him to start getting on base more.

Five-4-One: I'd even add Kendrick to that list, as I don't believe his ERA fairly represents what he's done ... although, as w/ Lannan, I doubt he remains on the "Not Worth Bitching About" list for the duration.

I'd have to say my biggest disappointments have been Howard & Hamels. I'd add Brown & Revere, but I didn't expect anything from them to begin w/.

At any rate, it's still early. I think we'll be able to get some good argumentation started come NEPP Day.

Joe D: If 'PVI had ever made Vern do the weather report I'd swear the Ollie character on 'Family Guy' had been based on him.

GBrett,

Nixberry doesn't bother me that much, its another manifestation that I put on management rather than the players themselves. That being said, Mayberry himself can get me pretty frustrated at times, so I'm thinking I'd be a hypocrite if I said I didn't bitch about him.

I'd be ok with Rollins, if that's all we should expect out of him. He has an OPS below .600 and has an On base of below .300. And he's been tragically unclutch so far this year. And despite his usual good d, he made a killer bad decision a couple games ago. However, my gut tells me that we'll see the usual white hot rollins streak we see every year. Hopefully sooner rather than later.

GTown, lol.

Yep still early, but I always like to have a bitch, no bitch list to fall back on.

So far, I'm thinking Howard and Hamels as well. Hard to not start there.

ITS GONNA RAIN!

JBird: I put absolutely no words in your mouth. In fact, I asked you explicitly which of the four points you agreed or disagreed with.

So far as I saw, you didn't answer me, and I didn't pursue the subject any further.

Gallardo blows a .22 and gets pulled over for going too slow. Reminds me of Chris Farley doing 7 in the cop car.

541, I agree with most of your post.

We'll see on Lannan - he's pitching for a contract and I'm optimistic. Do I expect a 2.77 ERA the rest of the season? No way, but 3.80 - 4.00 is doable and is just fine for the #5 (and should keep him on the list). However, that means is he's going to get hammered a couple of times to normalize his ERA, so be prepared for it. It's to be expected.

Also, the bench - Galvis, Frandsen, Nixberry - are collectively hitting .297/.392/.500 in 74 PA. (Quintero and Carrera are place holders). I would add thme as a group to your list.


The offense has been mediocre because the big boys have slumped out of the gate.

He's wanted down in Nevada for banging horses.

***We'll see on Lannan - he's pitching for a contract and I'm optimistic***

He's arb eligible so I'd imagine if he's even competent, they'll bring him back at a reasonable cost in 2014.

Just ran the numbers:

"Nixberry" are hitting .283/.377/.543 in 53 PA.

Nothing to complain about there. If the rest of the team were doing that they'd probably be 8 - 5 instead of 6 - 7.

Obviously the current lineup is NOT performing at an acceptable level. Charlie, I am waiting for the bus ticket from Lehigh Valley...

Do you know how fast you were going?

60, 65 tops.

Try 7...7 miles an hour and most people pull over to the side of the road.

I'd imagine we'd be a hell of a lot better than 8-5 if our team OPS was .920 instead of .700 as it currently is.

Clearly Yovani Gallardo was not driving a Lamborghini Gallardo.

NEPP, I thought Lannan was a FA. Please elaborate.

A Vern Odom reference? You know you are a Phils' baseball blog because there is no way someone from outside the are would recognize that.

It seems largely random when he pops up on Action News though and the stories he covers nowadays.


NEPP, I went with 8 - 5 because the pitching hasn't been very good.

Cholly's right about Adams' uage but then why did he end up using him last night anyways?

He does himself little favor a lot of times when he tries to explain his rationale.

A Don Polec reference would've been even more impressive.

MG: I rather imagine him showing up for work if, when & where he pleases now.

Sil: I was in a Don Polec's World segment when I was a kid, by virtue of it being shot where my father was employed at the time. Oddly, it didn't lead to a career in feature films for yours truly.

***I thought Lannan was a FA. Please elaborate.
***

He was non-tendered but he still had 2 years of team control remaining so when the Phillies signed him, he has 1 year remaining where he's simply arb eligible. Thus, we basically got 2 years of team control with that initial 1 year, $2.5 million deal he signed.

Nice, huh?

GTown, now you opened the can of worms. What was the story about?

I didn't know Polec was still around (maybe it's because I don't really watch the evening news). Apparently he's got his own website and everything: Check it out.

Utley rounded the bases in 19 seconds on his HR last night. I thought that was pretty impressive, but found out that it is merely above average and nothing great.

Peter Bourjos trotted the bases in 16.9 seconds last night for the fastest time this year. Bryce Harper has some of the fastest HR trots as well.

Sil: The Strasburg RR, & associated area businesses.

I didn't know Polec was still around, either. He disappeared from the local news awhile back.

"Nice, huh?"

Well, NEPP, it does give them a little leverage if they want to keep him around.

Yeah, if he's OK as a 5th starter he won't be too expensive next season.

Tommy J another homer. And Cesar keeps raking. One other name to watch. Yes he has his flaws but L Castro really has been driving the ball. 4 doubles and his first homer.

I always liked Leandro... unfortunately he's a dead end just like Zach Collier will end up being.

Charlie Manuel made all the wrong moves Saturday and Monday... dumb low-percentage moves that hurt his team's chances of winning. Giving away games, when you are already 5.5 games behind the Braves is not the way to go. Speaking of going, that's what Amaro should be doing soon. The Phillies need a new GM. Re-signing Jimmy Rollins was yet another really bad move. He is hurting this team, and it seems his friendship with Charlie Manuel is allowing him to stay in the top of the lineup. First of all, Galvis is clearly the better player. Secondly, if you are stubborn enough to insist an aging Jimmy must play every day, then he shouldn't be hitting in the top three of your order. Seventh or eigth, at best. Even his defense has been shaky this year. He seems to me to care about everything but winning baseball these days. For a guy stranding runners over and over and over again (hurting his team badly repeatedly), he sure does seem like a very happy camper in the dugout or while he's dancing/DJ'ing.

Cleary Galvis is better than Jimmy, clearly.

Perception meets reality with John Lannan. He's been a league average starter for a number of years with wretched numbers against the Phillies: 3-13, 5.53 ERA, 1.74 WHIP. We think he's worse than he is. Perhaps he will be one player who surprises.

GTown, this is what Polec is up to:

http://www.donpolecsworld.com/site/home.html

PhilliesDisapointing, or whoever it is that changed his/er handle, is in the lead for the presidency of the BL PPP.

Lannan is also a guy who should be entering his physical prime and who's spent his entire professional career in one organization. It's silly to put too much predictive weight on intangible stuff, but I don't think it's too much of a stretch to say that having access to a new (and, apparently, pretty decent) coaching staff might let him improve his game at least marginally. Except on the level of his pure stuff, which isn't great. I don't quite get why "no upside" has been automatically attached to his name since the signing,

@fumphis:

Because his pure stuff isn't great.

But still, our expectations of him seem to be biased because of how often we used to beat him. His overall track record is pretty consistent, so we should expect about 100-105 ERA+ over 30 starts.

awh: Much like the Mummers, Don Polec is inexplicable to those who are not from here.

sneed, it was posted he a number of times after the Lannan signing that his ERA when not facing the Phillies was 3.80.

Based on the sample size, it should not be surprising if he posts an ERA anywhere from 3.65 to 4.05.

Even in his worst year, 2010, his ERA was 4.65.

That season, it was 6.90 in 3 starts against the Phillies and 4.4 against everyone else.

That pattern repeated itself in his other years.

awh:
Glad you did the additional math.

Kyle Kendrick tonight. Future winningest pitcher in Phillies organization.

Mets in Rockies in yet another weather related situation. Start of doubleheader delayed due to another 8 inches of snow and previous snow fall pile in front of dugout.

Rockies owner and GM are out on the field helping to shovel snow.

A Don Polec namedrop? Awesome. It's stuff like that that helps me get through a day after a frustrating loss.

BAP~ I'm not reminding anyone of anything.

I'm seeing the same things that everyone else is... "Why is Nix in RF?" etc. Or 'Why didn't UC do this or that"? That sort of thing. We all know what the flaws are and so on and so forth.

People expect me to interject something else into discussions (AWH), but really what else is there to interject? The problems this team has aren't gonna work themselves out anytime soon.

You know, I don't normally post during games, but many games I read what is posted. And I see the same things. Because they're true. And the numbers don't lie.

AWH~ I'm wasn't being critical per se. I was merely stating a fact. 8 runs in 4 games and we were lucky to be 2-2. We very easily could have been 0-4. Yet you tell me to stop. The statement I made was a fact. When I pointed out utley brough them even, new ball game, fact not opinion. What would have been my opinion would be me saying something like "and they probably would've have won the game anyway with their offense", which I did not say.

The point is (and it doesn't matter what the reason are), is that the offense is struggling more than it should be. You, I and everyone knows it. That's not to say it won't get better. But it may very well be better if we'd gotten some different players.

Even with our talented core we'll not overcome the obtacles in front of us. Not the way things are going. I know the 'pen is giving up runs. I also know we are not capable of scoring enough runs to overcome that and therefore not capable of going on any kind of sustained run. We're looking at a .500 team which is ditto last year's. And for all that's been said and written, on any blog or in the media, that amounts to zero gain. Truth or not.

Looks like dodgy weather in Cincinnati this evening, which means we get another chance to watch Charlie manage the crap outta that bullpen of his!

Dave - If KK doesn't have his good changeup to help keep Bruce, Votto, and Choo in check, it won't really matter.

MG,

He also has to have the 2 seemer working to keep them honest on the inner half.

DPat, you don't seem to get it so I'll explain:

You referenced a 4 GAME SAMPLE.

I'll give you another Reds comparison:

The 1975 Reds - The Big Red Machine - 108 game winners - WORLD SERIES CHAMPS - had a 6 game stretch from May 11, 1975 to May 16, 1975 where they scored 10 runs - 1.67 RPG.

That is not a typo: 1.67 RPG.

They LOST ALL SIX GAMES.

Point: Even the very best teams have bad stretches, so to try to isolate a 4 games period and use it as an example of how good or bad the team is in an area is completely invalid and meaningless.

But, for some reason you seem to get a thrill by coming on here and declaring yourself the 'Sage of BL'. That is exactly why you posted what you did, and you used a meaningless four game sample to try to bolster your argument.

Was the 1975 Reds offense "struggling more than it should be"?

You bet, but that's baseball. Sh8t happens over a 162 game season, but for someone who claims to be as knowledgeable as you do you display an uncanny ability to miss the forest for the trees.

Look, the 2013 Phillies offense may stink it up and be WORSE than last season. It's entirely possible.

But to try to draw conclusions about this or any team by using a 4 game sample or after 13 games is bordering on insane.

new thread!

Horst was unlucky more than anything. A swinging bunt and a bloop double... nothing he can really do about that. It's not like he was giving up piss rods all over the yard. I'm more concerned about the offense.

Horst is this years equivalent of Herndon, you really only want to put him in the game if the SP has already blown it by the 5th and you need to eat up innings and regroup for tomorrow, you dont put him in if the game is tied or even close; hes not good

Four of the Phillies 7 losses have been directly attributable to the bullpen, yet the slobbering posters who think any game that features fewer than 10 runs being scored is boring blame everything on the offense.

BTW, if the Phils lost 8-7 because the bullpen blew the game, 5 or 6 of these slobbering idiots would blame the offense for not getting 9 runs.

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