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Friday, April 26, 2013

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Tonight will be one of those 9-8 losses.

awh: So if a player hits one down the line, they have to wait to be sure it's fair before they can leave the box? If it's foul and they left the box, it's a strike?

I don't support this aspect of your proposal.

WP:

"Attendance is a larger factor of our revenue than for other clubs because of our marketplace."

Translated: We do such a good job of selling people crap when they're at the park that when we miss out on an attendance ticket, we're also missing out on all the stuff we woulda sold them.

Anecdotally, this feels true to me. People attending Phillies games do seem to buy a lot more shirts and gear than in other stadiums I've been to.

repost from last thread:

Also... limit the number of check swing appeals... I sat on the third base line during Halladay-Harvey game. Last time the Mets were in town, Buck appealed to third literally every pitch. Whether the bat was off the shoulder or not. A couple of times the home plate ump ignored him, and buck stood there looking down to third as the the 3b ump just shook his head as in... "yeah... not this time"

I get that the home plate ump doesn't have the best angle at it... but it shouldn't be a question every pitch. [Of course, when its Ryan Howard, if he lifts his bat off his shoulder its an automatic strike]

A couple more unserious ways to shorten games:

-- Limit the around the horn after bases empty strikeouts.
-- Forget throwing pitches during IBB
-- Remove the home run trot. Ball leaves the park. everyone just head to the dugout.
-- Pitchers must use ball thrown to them from ump, cannot discard any.
-- One pitch warm up for reliever mid-inning. No throw to second.

""Attendance is a larger factor of our revenue than for other clubs because of our marketplace."

also they are working on an older TV deal...

I predict a sweep.

Mick-- He's just talking about players who step out after every pitch to adjust their gloves and take practice swings. He's suggesting limiting this by only allowing them to do so once during an AB.

The exception he mentioned is in case a player has already used his 1 step-out but then happens to foul a pitch off his foot. In this case, he would be allowed to step out again and walk it off.

Had nothing to do with leaving the box on a ball hit down the line.

"I predict a sweep."

I won't hazard a guess as to which way LOL

WP: Mick O, I was thinking that, too, but isn't all merch revenue split across all of MLB?

Well, then maybe he meant other non-licensed concessions?

Or maybe the Phillies are cooking the books on licensed merch and Rube accidentally incriminated himself... in which case.

WP for the Pulitzer!!!!

:-)

Or, it just hit me that the more logical assumption is that Ruben Amaro Jr has no freakin' clue how merch sales work in the MLB? Sadly, I can't rule this out at all. I can see an assistant trying to explain rev sharing to him and him just tossing the printed spreadsheet and saying "To hell with these advanced stats! Production!"

awh & Cyclic: Ok then. I did misunderstand.

I thought "once per AB" was inclusive of all foul balls during the AB.

Thanks for being patient with me.

I see Ike Davis was moved down to 7th in the order for the Mets.

When oh when will Charlie do that with Ryno?

No worries, Mick.

As you know, Beerleaguer posters are renowned for their patience.

im glad you guys mentioned that quote, because my first read thought he said baseball clubs as a whole rely on attendance more than the normal business/team/etc. - but he definitely meant that the Phillies somehow benefit from attendance moreso than other clubs.

My interpretation is that the Phillies do a better job of profiting from them their fans while in the ballpark than they do others. If that's the case, then good for the Phillies, but as a attending fan - Up Yours! Why would you admit that?

I also see Lucas Duda has gone 32 straight AB without swinging at the first pitch.

This fascinates me.

Lorecore: If that's really the correct interpretation, then I agree.

However, I imagine he's comparing the Phillies to, say, the Yankees/Dodgers, who had/have their own TV networks to generate revenue. There are also other possible sources to take into account, like people paying to use the stadium when the team isn't there, paying for the team endorsements ("official southeast Cherry Hill Honda dealer of the Philadelphia Phillies!"), current TV deal (which I believe ended up being something of a sweetheart deal due to Comcast's minority stake in the team), etc.

Mick: 47% of the pitches thrown to Lucas Duda have been balls. That is the highest percent in all of baseball (even higher than joey votto).

It's also sad that we don't have a writer with the gumption to actually get Rube to clarify anything he says. Ever.

Draft or watch this group of misfits?

"shoot this group of misfits?"

Ah yes, the excitement of watching people call out names in an orderly fashion.

Mind you, I watch the draft as well, but reading about it after the fact is just as effective as watching during. Same can't be said for baseball.

Speeding up the game: Give the ump a sprinkler can so Howard dosn't have to step out after every pitch to spit on his gloves.

They could pre-rosin the balls. Only use one ball per pitch. Install a ball ejector in the mound for replacing balls if the pitcher doesn't like one...

My interpretation is Philibuster's--Amaro is saying they get less revenue from other sources (mostly TV contracts, or owning your own tv network like Yanks/Red Sox/Mets do).

It's a weird thing to keep saying. Sounds to me like he's laying the groundwork (on behalf of ownership) for reduced salary going forward. But it's also hard for me to get worked up about that.

If I were an owner, given the crap Amaro has put on the field with my $170 million, I'd cut payroll as well.

Did someone say they need a ball ejector?

"It's also sad that we don't have a writer with the gumption to actually get Rube to clarify anything he says. Ever."

Mick O- this is exactly right and something that has frustrated me for a while.

When Amaro went on his 'production' rant, surely every beat writer heard it pretty quickly. I'm not expecting Mikey Miss (who I believe was the interviewer) to ask a follow up like "What the f*ck are you talking about?", because he'd risk getting stonewalled by the team until Amaro gets canned. But surely the beat writers could have brought this up the next time Ruben took questions. Is it really that hard to ask, "Could you clarify your recent comments on how you don't care about walks, and they don't count towards 'production?' What do you consider production? Do you think walks have any value, or do you specifically try to target players that don't walk a lot?"

I don't think these questions would get a beat writer fired. They are perfectly reasonable questions that any one of us would ask (with maybe a few more expletives, but still).

Phils at +112 tonight? I'll take a piece of that for a moderate wager. Gee is an 'ok' pitcher at home but I'll take a chance to wager against him against a guy who is throwing pretty well (KK) and a sensible lineup from the Phils tonight.

"awh: So if a player hits one down the line, they have to wait to be sure it's fair before they can leave the box? If it's foul and they left the box, it's a strike?

I don't support this aspect of your proposal."'


Mick O, what?

Did you even comprehend what I posted?

"No worries, Mick.

As you know, Beerleaguer posters are renowned for their patience."


Cyclic, apparently not me. I didn't read down far enough in the thread to see your exchange with Mick. :(


Also, one adjustment to your answer to him:


A player would get one "free" step-out of the batter's box per PA. So, if he fouled a ball off his foot and had to walk it off, but then wanted to step out once later in the AB, that would be allowed.

Extenuating circumstances such as fouls off of his foot would not count no matter when they occur during the PA.

Didn't see this mentioned- Adams is out tonight. He has a tender hip, and Dubee blamed his workload.

This team feels like its headed for a 90 loss season...obviously this could change as its still only April, but the good vibes are few and far between right now

Start working at home with Google! It's by-far the best job Ive had. Last Monday I got a new Alfa Romeo from bringing in $7778. I started this 9 months ago and practically straight away started making more than $83 per hour. I work through this link, mojo50.com

Utley slides back into the two-hole ...

They don't call him "The Man" for nothing, folks.

Adams has a tender hip? Is he 34 going on 35 or 54 going on 55?

Kind of an odd injury.

Kate, are single and available by any chance? I'm really looking for someone to stay at home and if she can bring in some revenue, all the better! Call me.

For $7778, the Alfa must have been used.

Good points about the lack of other revenue streams for the Phils (TV network, in particular). Not sure who gets the money, and how it funds payroll when, for instance, Jay Z performs at Yankee Stadium, but it's not like there's anything stopping the Phils from capitalizing there, either.

I guess we'll see where it winds up, but I, too, feel like RAJ is leaving the Phils fans as scapegoats for if/when payroll reductions are coming. That said, once a new TV deal is in place, they no longer have the guise of a lack of revenue, or some unique "small" market, as an excuse to not invest in some semblance of roster talent. Hopefully, by then, RAJ will be long gone.

The March to -1.0 WAR:

Doesn't look like Kratz will get to -1.0 WAR, as I thought he might have a shot to do after his awful 10 game start. He's appeared in 20 games with 2 to go before Chooch comes back and he's got a -0.6 WAR. His slash line is .185/.206/.308/ (.514 OPS) with 4 XBH. 16Ks in 68 PAs (4 GIDP).

Tough to imagine how anyone could be possibly worse. He's started 16 of the 23 games- that's a 110-start, -4.0 WAR pace.

For comparison's sake, Brian Schneider- who nauseated people throughout the year last year- posted a 0.1 WAR and .637 OPS in 26 starts. Even he would have been a better option than Kratz has been to start the season.

Ruiz can come back and, like some have foolishly postulated, decline heavily simply because he's off Adderall (he'll probably decline anyway, but to link it to Adderall use is stupid) and STILL be a significant upgrade both at the plate and behind it. Sunday can't come soon enough. I wouldn't miss Kratz if he was sent down to LV either, nor would anyone else. He's not an MLB player.

If the Phils don't make the playoffs, Amaro is a dead-man walking. He knows it and so does the FO. Only a question of whether he is able to finish out his contract through '15 or not.

This team has shown a clear preference to not pay dead money to A manager or GM. I doubt Amaro gets fired before his contract expires.

Hadn't noticed the lineup. Hope this is a configuration that Cholly sticks with.

Even better, when Ruiz comes back Sunday, put him in the 5-hole. Then when Young comes back, you've got:

Rollins
Utley
Young
Howard
Ruiz
Young
Brown
Revere
P

Replace Mayberry for Brown against LHP, and that's actually a plus lineup against LHP. Put Frandsen at third and moving Young to third (Howard to the bench) would make 3-7 pretty formidable against lefties.

I know it's wishful thinking, but now that he's split up the lefties, anything is possible.

"If I were an owner, given the crap Amaro has put on the field with my $170 million, I'd cut payroll as well."


Jack, that happened for one season - 2012, the "crap", that is.

Few here were complaining in 2011 when they won 102 games.

Now, if you want to argue that Amaro entered into some bad long term contracts, then you might have a point, but the question remains: Had they not entered into the LT contracts, to whom else would you have allocated the money?

The first year of Howard's $125MM extension was 2012, and I guess they could have signed Fielder, or maybe Pujols, but their contract may wind up worse in the long ter than Howard's. OTOH, Josh Hamilton could have been signed if they hadn't extended Howard.

Also, could they have foreseen Utley's knees when they gave him his extension. He was the best 2nd baseman in MLB when they signed him to his extension - by far. And, this year, healthy so far, he has the third highest OPS and OPS+ among MLB 2B. Still elite.

Halladay? He was the best SP in MLB the first two years he was here. The best. He should have won 2 CY, not just one.

Lee? He's still elite.

No, the only contract that seems to really be a bad one is the Howard contract, but for a team with a $170MM payroll, 25MM isn't that much of an albatross.

His "failure" is in not in giving out the big contracts. His failure is that he faced a perfect sh8tstorm of injuries for one season.

This is a new season and they're not playing well.

But I'm not ready to write it off yet.

I'll get back to you in June.

MG: Charlie will be the sacrifice this season, which appeared set up for a mid-season salary dump from the get go. We'll see if Monty has the intelligence to can r00b after '14. He practically cried over firing Wade, & wound up bringing the dope back, anyway. Sufficed to say, I'm skeptical.

MG- if they stay in contention through September, he'll get a pass even if they miss the playoffs. Charlie will be gone, but Amaro will be given until '15 to rebuild.

If the team stays at this putrid pace and completely tanks, I do think he might be in a bit of trouble, especially if the final record is something embarrassing (70-75 wins).

"Few here were complaining in 2011 when they won 102 games."

awh, you have a short memory. JW even wrote a post on how boring the team was. Many here agreed.

Iceman, I don't remember that. My bad.

Hard to believe, Harry, that JW was complaining about a 102 win season.

Iceman - He'll get a pass for this year even if the Phils struggle a bit. Cholly will be the guy who falls on the sword.

Given the chances of the Phils putting a very competitive team back on the field by '15 are pretty limited, Amaro is going to get canned in the next 2 years. Just a question of how bad the rest of this year and '14 shakes out.

I would say there is probably less than 5% chance Amaro gets fired after this season. If this season turns into another debacle and a sub. 500 year and next year they win say 70-71 games, there is probably at least a 50-50 chance he's gone at the end of '14.

awh: here's the thread

http://www.beerleaguer.com/beerleaguer/2011/06/boring-boring-boring-boring-boring-boring.html

Phils had just fallen to a boring 36-25, 3 games up in the division.

"Few here were complaining in 2011 when they won 102 games."

Yeah this is just false.

If someone had only the game threads from that year to go on, they'd think the team went 81-81 that year.

Course, a year later, 81-81 felt like 62-100.

This year, from reading BL it feels like they're on pace for about 40 wins.

Our old friend, Dillon Gee. Good to see ya.

Rollins takes the early lead in "Dumbass of the Game" dishonors balloting.

Another one of those JRoll brain farts, huh?

More issues on the basepaths. Ugh.

A very Phillies 2013 inning right there

You can't buy a new Alfa in this country for any amount of money.

Gelb: "Jimmy Rollins makes an out on the bases for the third time in three games."

Now Utley needs to follow by booting an easy grounder, & bunting for no apparent reason.

GTown, we need someone thrown out at home for the first out of an inning, too.

There's still time, though.

Well that was odd. The ump bolted the field. "Gastrointestinal distress"?

Rollins was safe, though. In case that matters.

bittel: Replay clearly showed he got tagged in the chest before his hand hit the bag.

GTown-- it was actually really close, but the throw did beat him by a ton

My eyes must be failing me because the replay I saw showed the opposite. Whatever.

My god our announcers are the worst... Dare I switch to NY?

The SNY announcers are actually pretty entertaining. I hate saying that considering their affiliation with the Mets, but they're 900X better than TBag and his cast of cronies.

Why strikeout swinging, when you can do it looking, amirite, Mayberry?

Yeah NY much better than TMac

Ike Davis belongs on the Phillies.

I guess now that Mayberry has entered his annual in-season hibernation the apologists will have to re-focus on their "Charlie is misusing him!" argument ... Which is true, but if you expected Charlie to platoon anyone you were behind the curve mentally to begin with.

That bat will be worth alot more now.

and Kratz shits the bed in quick fashion

What a hitting guru Manuel is. How can his teams not understand how pitchers are going to pitch batters in certain situations?

God this is awful

lead off gift... 3 straight turds. Go Phils!

Leadoff double? Let's leave him at 2B.

Hey ump, i know how you feel. I get sick watching this team play, too.

Per L.A., the Phillies are 6 for their last 44 w/ RISP.

Oh, good, their talking about how the addition of Delmon Young will help add some power to this lineup, for the umpteenth time. Maybe someone should tell them that we've been assured that that isn't necessarily going to happen.

Oh, and they even have him penciled into the 5th or 6th spot "when he gets back."

So glad that it all rests on his ability to learn to play RF, though, otherwise it might be putting the cart before the horse.

Seriously, though, anyone who doesn't see DY as imminent clearly isn't paying attention. Buckle up.

That's an intimidating middle third of the lineup r00b's assembled.

rube must be squirming in his box like "the tingler" is under is seat.

Delmon is going to be a big help with tough lefties like Gee.

Delmon is going to be a big help with leftovers. Otherwise, not so much.

SNY's Greg Murphy equivalent just mentioned sabermetrics... Hasn't even taken out a notebook yet though

Damn good pitches by KK to Wright here. You know, he's developed into being pretty good. What a waste.

That was a good pitch too.

r00b heard "Sabermetrics" & thought it involved an actual sword. No way Charlie's gonna have access to pointy objects on his watch!

Then again their color guy might be RAJ... Keeps talking about not caring about sabermetrics but only production

Yep TMac, Kyle Kendricks success is all about this "confidence". Has nothing to do with his increased reliance on a fairly good changeup, and his ditching of that sh!tty cutter.

Yep, all about the "confidence".

That change was filthy

I can't even believe I'm typing the words, but watching Kendrick pitch has been a pleasure so far. By-the-by, his K/9 has increased by about 2.5 K per over the past 2 years. I'm sure it's unrelated, though.

Detroit's beating the crap out of Paul Maholm.

KK is a pretty amazing story. He's gone from the 5th starter always a bad start away from being sent down to probably the most valuable trading chip left on the team.

And another Phila. Daily News Home Run Payoff Inning dies quietly.

Kratz with a pathetic bloop single, breaking an 0-10 slump.

How are we going to survive without this guy in the lineup everyday?

i agree, curt. kk should top that list of most valuable tradeables. i would hate to see him go.

Boring indeed, the offense I mean

Kendrick however is a pleasure to watch. Hoping for a CGSO

Man, Sarge imparting the knowledge:

"Well, that's how you judge pitching, by looking at exactly how they're pitching."

How do I make it through the day without his sage wisdom to guide me?

Kendrick however is a pleasure to watch. Hoping for a CGSO

Posted by: Cyclic | Friday, April 26, 2013 at 08:31 PM

Sadly, this is only possible if the Phillies score a run.

Seeing as THAT may actually be impossible, I doubt we'll see the CGSO from KK tonight.

Fatal-- I'm hoping for error, groundout, wild pitch, sac fly. 1-0 phils

One might be tempted to refer to this as a "Pitcher's Duel", since the Mets are a good hitting team & Kendrick has shut them down thus far. The Phillies, on the other hand ...

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