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Monday, April 01, 2013

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Is this the game thread?

Nope, expect another thread for the game.

I don't have any criticism for the new writers, like other have. What I do criticize is the apparent decision of someone in charge to increase the number of posts/threads, presumably under the guise of "providing more content."

I'm not particularly a fan. One or two interesting posts per day would be perfectly fine with me--there's no need to update with every happening in Phillies world.

Again, I don't think this is Corey's call, or any of the new writers. I think they've been told to post as much content as possible.

Nevermind, the header says "Game Chat." So I am likely wrong about a new thread for the game, which is welcome.

My other points remain.

***Nope, expect another thread for the game. ***

Then why is this one labeld "Game Chat"?

Hey guys, this is indeed the Game Chat.

Posted at the end of the last thread:

There was another fun article in the weekend edition of the Wall Street Journal that ranked the MLB teams as if they were being seeded like the NCAA basketball tournament. The gNats would be a No. 1 seed, while the Braves were grouped (along with defending WS Champs, the Giants) with the strong contenders. The Phillies were lumped with the Yankess and the Red Sox as teams that people with only a passing knowledge of the game would pick based on name recognition and their past winning records. The Muts would be a No. 16 seed and the Marlins would be playing in the NIT with the Astros and the Twins.

Can we dispense with the brush-clearing [worrying about whether this is a game thread] and start with the main event [worrying about whether Dom's upcoming 0-4 performance means that his Spring fever has broken]?

Sorry I asked.

I'll miss the game day graphic headers and the jinx/reverse jinxes they provided.

Feels like a loss...

I'm not particularly a fan.
Posted by: Jack | Monday, April 01, 2013 at 03:08 PM

Sums up Jack pretty well.

dave, if anyone is ripe for an 0-fer today, it's JMJ. I'll go out on a limb and state that Dom shouldn't be your primary OF concern in tonight's game.

What's Laird's arm like? Any chance we might be able to steal our way to a run or two?

Wow. Didn't realize that Gerald Laird was the Braves backup to their questionable situation with McCann. Laird is not a good baseball player. He threw out 10 of 52 baserunners last year!

Sounds like we might have the right guy in the lead off spot, then...

Mayberry seems like he is one of 'hunches' that Cholly plays based on a SSS.

Given how both guys looked terrible in ST and struggled the last 2 weeks, I can see why Cholly could have gone either way.

WP: Laird is pretty decent, nothing special, but not known as a weakness.

Braves had David Ross all those years when he wasn't needed.

To be fair, at one time Laird had good SB/CS percentages.

Wow, Marlins have such an impressive lineup that Polly Polanco batted cleanup for them?

Laird is a backup catcher and nothing more. I haven't seen an estimate on when McCann will be back or how healthy his shoulder is.

The Fish lobbied Selig to bat Stanton for all 9 spots and just use ghost runners but their request was denied.

This is the result.

MG, Would you rather have Kratz or Laird?

Willard
I'm counting on JMJ's goose egg, and it wouldn't change my priors about the team. Dom's goose egg, which I'm now anticipating, would mean more to the psychic foundation of the team's expected wins.

From 2003-10, Gerald Laird threw out 38% of base-stealers.

The last two seasons, though, he's thrown out just 14 of 72 (19%).

Gotta try to run tonight.

For comparison Kratz caught 15 of 33 baserunners last year. Wouldn't surprise me if his OPS was 100 points higher than Laird's this year either.

Sophist - Depends on what version of Kratz shows up.

If he is 'okay' defensively with a .230-.250 AVG with some of the power he showed last spring, then Kratz.

Last year.

Agree on running tonight. With the lack of power in this lineup, and a few good baserunners (Rollins, Revere, Utley), we should be running a lot, generally.

WP: I wrote out a long response which basically had the spirit of "It's Opening Day, so don't worry, be happy."
But now that the game chat thread has posted 4 hours before game time, seems out of place to post now. Sigh.

Just stumbled upon a pretty insane stat:

With Tim Hudson pitching, there were 263 occurances when there was a runner on 1st/2nd and the next base unoccupied.

Of those 263 opps, a runner only attempted a steal 7(!) times, and caught 5.

Holy crap.

"John Mayberry, a right-handed hitter, is starting in right field against the right-handed Hudson. It could be a sign that Charlie Manuel is valuing Mayberry’s defense over Laynce Nix’s platoon splits vs. righties."

If that's true, it would be utterly baffling. The defensive drop-off from Mayberry to Nix is modest & the offensive drop-off from Nix to Mayberry (against RHP) is significant.

Hudson is pretty good at holding runners on.

The Revere decision is a pretty big milestone for Charlie, Rollins and the Phillies. I really hope Revere works out. I have high hopes for that trade.

I kind of expect the desire for Revere to hit leadoff to disappear relatively quickly, once people see his tendency to have 3-pitch ABs.

that was 2012 stats. Here are the last fwe years:

2012: 263 opps, 2 SB 5 CS
2011: 312 opps, 16 SB 5 CS
2010: 300 opps, 11 SB 11 CS
2009 injured
2008: 166 opps, 6 SB 4 CS
2007: 326 opps, 9 SB 4 CS

Hudson must have a great time to the plate. Most starters with ~300 opps average around 25 attempts at a 70% success rate.

JW: Victorino led off on opening day in both 2011 and 2012.

BAP beat me to it i had to stop and re-read that myself.

***I kind of expect the desire for Revere to hit leadoff to disappear relatively quickly, once people see his tendency to have 3-pitch ABs. ***

As opposed to Rollins 1-2 pitch ABs...

If Metsblog still exists, someone likely just posted "Needs More Cowgill!!!"

As its now 11-2 on his grand slam.

so much negativity. it's opening day. be excited. drink a beer. enjoy the weather in philly

first pitch - infield pop-up

I'm already anticipating the thrill I'll feel when consecutive ABs feat. Revere & Rollins result in the opposing pitcher having to throw a total of 4 pitches. I hope Hudson's been working on his cardio!

JRoll-Utley-Howard makes it really easy to use a LOOGY specialist in the 6th-7th inning.

Hasn't the knock on Jimmy in the leadoff spot been that he pops the first pitch up too often and doesn't work the count. It's not like we have a better leadoff that works the count waiting in the wings. Utley is probably the most patient but is not a leaoff. I'd don't there will be issues with Revere at 1, he was batted .290 last year. Seems like the optimal spot for him to hit here.

Game prediction:
Howard with an oppo-poppo tonight.



Only say that so I can annoy everyone with the oppo thing. Hopefully T-Mac doesn't annoy everyone further by mispronouncing it "oppo-boppo" again.

Ike Davis with the Platinum Sombrero on Opening Day: 0 for 5, 4 SO.

"Whether you realize it or not, I can evaluate our team," Manuel said the other day in Clearwater, Fla. "I think that I am the best evaluator. I think when Pat Gillick first got here and got his job he said I was one of the best evaluators in baseball. If you want to know the truth, I think that goes real silent around here. I don't hear it."

Shots fired to Ruben from Charlie.

Pretty different circumstances with Utley and Howard out in 2012 and Utley out in 2011.

Sil: It is impossible to be more annoying than Tom McCarthy. If T-Mac had been broadcasting the resurrection, Christ would have chosen to remain dead.

"Whether you realize it or not, I can evaluate our team," Manuel said the other day in Clearwater, Fla. "I think that I am the best evaluator. I think when Pat Gillick first got here and got his job he said I was one of the best evaluators in baseball. If you want to know the truth, I think that goes real silent around here. I don't hear it."

some text

Had a long drive back today. Predictions:

Record: 92-70, 2nd in the NL East
ERA: Hamels 2.40, Lee: 2.55, Halladay: 3.62
All-Stars: Hamels, Lee, Papelbon, Adams
Awards: Hamels 2nd Cy, Rollins GG, Ruf ROY
Utley: 150 games
Brown: .285/.350/.460
Lineup: Revere-Utley-Ruiz-Howard-Ruf-Rollins-Young-Brown-Lee
Manuel: No, and he'll be peeved.

NL WC: Phillies over Braves
NLDS: Phillies over Nationals in 5, Reds over Giants in 4
NLCS: Phillies over Reds in 5
AL WC: Yankees over Rangers
ALDS: Jays over Tigers, A's over Yankees
ALCS: A's over Jays in 7
WS: Phillies over A's in 6

- Ichiro will do more for the Yankees than Delmon and B.J. Upton do for their respective teams.
- Ruf will be called up before the All-Star break and will rake.
- The Michael Young signing will turn out to be a success both on the field and off the field.
- Howard hits 35 dingers.
- Halladay is NLCS MVP and gets resigned in December.
- Lee is WS MVP.

Rollins led the 2012 Phillies in P/PA with 3.72 (Pence had higher, but split sample).

In 2011, Howard led the team, with Pence (split) and Shane ahead of Rollins. However, his 3.78 P/PA was still slightly better than his 2012.

In 2010, Rollins didn't qualify due to injury, but in 2009 he posted a 3.56 (5th best on team).

He gets a bad rap for having quick ABs, but overall he's pretty consistently in the 3.5-3.75 range. That's not great, but it's better than most other Phillies not named Howard or Utley - and he's been improving in recent years.

I still contest that my favorite lineup would be

Revere
Utley
Young
Howard
Rollins (Ruiz upon his return, Rollins to 6 at that point)
Brown
Mayberry/Nix
Kratz

But at least we are seeing a semblance of forward thinking on Charlie's part. It's a start and that's all we can ask for. Needless to say I am excited for the season to start and pissed off that my gym doesn't have PHL17.

first pitch - infield pop-up

Posted by: hey ya | Monday, April 01, 2013 at 03:48 PM

You mean 4th pitch, JRoll is batting 2nd tonight.

Rollins has bumped up his BB% rate last 3 seasons(~9.5%) compared to earlier in his career (~7%). which defintely helps the P/PA.

Philli: Yeah, Rollins' reputation for not walking enough is something that has stuck with him since early in his career, when it was actually true. Nowadays, though, he actually has pretty good walk totals. It's his batting average which drives down his OBP.

I just think that Rollins XBH potential is better suited at the 5 or 6-hole and he can also help jump start some action down there with his speed if/when he gets on.

buster - There you go ruining people's narratives with stats.

"We truly despise each other as bad as it seems. You should see the fists fly during the Beerleaguer Elite's annual retreat."


norbertods, bap still hates me because of the steaming log I left under his sheets at Bohemian Grove one summer. He doesn't take practical jokes very well.

If Revere can continue last season's progression (.310 to .333OBP) up to near .350 than he'll be a nice upgrade from Rollins.

He needs to be pretty close to that level to make it a worthy upgrade.

Honestly guys, the only two options that UC would have considered were Revere/Rollins and Rollins/Revere.

Given that restriction, it makes more sense to bat the guy with more power behind the faster guy that can get on and steal 2B to put himself in scoring position for Rollins.

Oh I know NEPP. I know Charlie was locked in to having both in the top 2 spots.

Also, the odds are that Revere will have a higher OBP than Rollins this year anyway if you look at the way each is trending.

I'm sure some of the less stat-savvy posters will disagree with me here but I feel that the best pitching matchup of the day has to be Justin Verlander vs. Vance Worley. Talk about the ultimate clash of titans there.

Any predictions on whether Hamels keeps the WB Mason mustache for tonight? I say, NO!

If Revere increases his OBP to .350, he'll be on base approximately 245 times (700 PA) .

If Rollins had been in the leadoff spot with a .333 OBP, he would have been on base approximatley 231 times.

How many more runs would those extra 14 times on base produce?

Rollins led the 2012 Phillies in P/PA with 3.72 (Pence had higher, but split sample).

Damning w/ very faint praise. Every single team in the NL save for Miami had at least one qualified batter w/ a higher P/PA than Rollins. He also led the known universe w/ a horrid 19.0 IFFB%.


Honestly guys, the only two options that UC would have considered were Revere/Rollins and Rollins/Revere.

This is both true, & maddening.

via thespread.com, Hamels (-105) @ Hudson (-103), o/u 7.

Shows PHI getting 54% of the bets.

I hope he's kept the 'stache. If he keeps it for the year, I'm changing my prediction to a Cy and a sub-2.00 ERA.

Word is, Hamels shaved the stache.

GTown: Sure, but the idea that Rollins is somehow a worse option to bat first because he doesn't see enough pitches is patently untrue, as a result.

Sure, his P/PA may not be great, but it's better than everybody else on the team except Utley (who wasn't around enough) and Howard (who I don't think anyone is advocating leads off).

Rollins simply had the best combined skillset of speed, OBP, and P/PA to be the leadoff guy previously. That doesn't mean he's an ideal leadoff guy, but that also doesn't mean he wasn't the best option.

Worley with a poor start. Revere may not progress as we hope, but I do think it was a good time to trade Vanimal.

The Hamels porn 'stache is already gone, unfortunately.

awh: depends on revere SB/ISO vs Rollins' as well. To make a very simplistic guess:

Leading off an inning by reaching first vs making an out is worth ~.5 runs (0.4886), so 14 extra times on bases is about 7 runs.

I think what people are missing about moving Rollins out of the leadoff spot is the positive impact it could possibly have on him and his ability to drive in runs. Something that Manuel lauded at the start of spring training. And something that should have him hitting 5th and 6th, not 2nd. But still.

Lore: Good point about the power difference too, however. I could see Revere netting about 10-15 more SBs than Rollins, but I also see him getting thrown out more often, keeping their CS% fairly close.

But we know Revere is going to be stealing 2nd from 1st, while Rollins has the chance to be stealing 3rd (which he's ridiculously good at) from 2nd.

me: "Leading off an inning by reaching first vs making an out is worth ~.5 runs (0.4886), so 14 extra times on bases is about 7 runs."

actually i think read it wrong. I believe it's +.369 runs when you reach first to leadoff an inning - so it'd be closer to 5 extra runs.

Of course if Revere has a .350 OBP he should be hitting leadoff. But that's just assuming the very thing that's at issue.

The real question is whether you can project the guy with the career .319 OBP to have a .350 OBP. If you think you can, then yes, he should be hitting leadoff. If you think that's a real stretch, then it's an open question again.

lore, so it's worth maybe another 1/2 win.

Well, that could be the difference between making the playoffs and playing golf.

Also, I wonder what the no-quantifiable impact will be of having Revere on 1B - being ostensibly a slightly greater threat to steal?

(Rollins gets many more XBH than Revere, so Revere would be on 1B more.)

jack: yea agreed, was saying .350 is what revere needs to do to actually make a difference.

A heavily single aided .340 OBP isn't THAT great compared to what jimmy can give you with ~.320 OBP and better power.

What this team needed was a change. Revere provides that. Things just got so stagnant with Jimmy at the top. Let's see where Revere takes us.

As John D. Rockefeller once said...

If you want to succeed you should strike out on new paths, rather than travel the worn paths of accepted success.

So, Rollins in the 2-hole is officially happening huh? Switch Rollins and Utley and I like that lineup a whole lot more.

Go Phils!

"Every single team in the NL save for Miami had at least one qualified batter w/ a higher P/PA than Rollins."

Hence, the acquisition of Delmon Young, a veritable model of plate discipline.

If Revere is leadoff, then I'd go Utley 2nd and Rollins 3rd per lineup analyzer.

Harper starting off the season with 2 homers.
Strasburg allowing 3 hits through 7 innings.
Clippard and Soriano finishing it off cleanly.

I don't like the new Nats.

I should have noted:

I do like the new Marlins.

b_a_p: Not only that, but the "plate discipline" for which r00b has provided Young w/ financial incentives has nothing whatsoever to do w/ P/PA.

Thsi would be my lineup:


Revere (until he 'proves' his OBP doesn't merit the spot)
MYoung (best career #s in 2-hole)
Utley (probably best in 2-hole, but that hurts MYoung)
Howard (any questions?)
Brown (until he 'proves' his SSS ST success against LHP was a fluke)
Rollins (best career #s in 6-hole .344/.364/.456, SSS)
Chooch (.308/.376/.466 in 623 PA in 7-hole)
Whoever plays RF (just because...)


The only change I would consider to this lineup is to flip Brown and Chooch depending on the 'handedness' of the pitcher, though chooch doesn't have great numbers in the 5-hole.

A second lineup option would be this:

Revere
Utley
Chooch
Howard
Brown
Rollins
MYoung
RF

It's nice to see Jack with the knives out for Revere and Adams already. I predict he'll be railing on those two with an MG-like refrain throughout the year.

clout, the only problem with the lineup analyzer is that it doesn't take into account what a batter does in a particular spot in the lineup, though I'm not versed enough to know how significant that is.

Rollins career #s in the 3 hole:

.241/.301/.316, 383 PA

Jimmy Rollins has been barely replacement level when batting 3rd.

Just sayin'.

BAP/GTown, it's well on record that Rube doesn't give a rat's 8ss about walks and the like, rendering OBP something only those other GM's bother themselves with. Don't you know it's ALL ABOUT PRODUCTION????

awh: I love that.

Instead of relying on what players have actually shown in the past (i.e., Brown's lack of power and struggles against lefties, Revere's .319 career OBP), you're putting them in spots where you hope they'll do something new, and not moving them until they "prove" they aren't totally new players.

Fascinating.

So, Rollins in the 2-hole is officially happening huh? Switch Rollins and Utley and I like that lineup a whole lot more.

Go Phils!

Posted by: R.Billingsly | Monday, April 01, 2013 at 04:54 PM

I don't disagree with Utley in the 2 hole, but is
there really that much difference between Rollins/ Utley and vise versa.

"the 'plate discipline' for which r00b has provided Young w/ financial incentives has nothing whatsoever to do w/ P/PA.

Disagree. He has led the league 3 years in row in portions per potluck affair.

Iceman: I like Revere and Adams a lot. Not sure what you're talking about.

I just happen to question the efficacy of Revere in the leadoff spot. Overall, he's a perfectly good player. I think he would be a perfect player to hit 9th with the pitcher 8th, and would help the team more in that position.

And yes, I'm sorry for mocking your daily "Adams is amazing!" commentary every time he pitched well in a spring training game. But I was mocking you, not ripping on Adams. Adams is very good, though it's ludicrous to suggest he's going to make a 10-game difference between last year and this year, which you've repeatedly claimed.

Jack, it's the 2013 Phillies.... WTF.


Besides, what do you care where they're in the lineup. You think they'll stink no matter what, so why not try something new?

Iceman, Jack is the quintessential guy who wants to be able to be the first guy to say "See, I told you so!"

He was probably the kid who pissed in other kids' cornflakes at summer camp just so he could say "See, I told you they wouldn't taste good!"

Jack- you were mocking me for pointing out a player was doing well? Uh, I guess you got me good?

Your exaggeration and douchebaggery are in midseason form. Looking forward to another season of your sparkling, unbiased commentary.

(Btw, Jack and I planned out this little exchange at the annual Beerleaguer WWE meetup at Chickies and Pete's).

Iceman, you see, Jack is playing it smart:

He gets to win either way.


If the Phils suck he gets to feel good about pissing in everyone's cereal and being right.

If they're good he gets to rejoice with everyone else.


He's disingenous, but smart.

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