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« Game chat: Howard back, Pettibone to pitch Monday | Main | Burnett maturing; bench producing; same lineup »

Monday, April 22, 2013

Comments

Like Brian Startare most times but he is stuck on the Phils' offense.

The Phils' offense scored 7 runs tonight & its average overall.

It's the pitching and defense that are the culprits on why this team is 8-11.

As with most bad teams, it's not the offense or the pitching or the defense. It is all of them, each in turn, doing in the team.

Bad teams find ways to lose. Good teams find ways to let the bad teams lose. The Phillies used to be a good team and would hold steady until the bad teams coughed up games. But tonight notwithstanding, when the pitching is good, the offense and defense let them down. When the offense is adequate, the relievers let them down. And so on and so on. It's the same with any sport. Poorly constructed teams will kick the ball or fail to score or fail to make pitches. Whatever is needed to lose more than they win.

And that's the kind of team we're watching now.

First game in clearwater. D. Young one hit and one error in RF.

So are the Phillies a good or bad team right now?

I'm excited for the Pettibone start tonight and am bummed I'll miss most of it. I saw some upset people over it this weekend. Some cited his numbers from this season in the minors. SSS people. Prior to this season he has pitched to a 3.31 ERA in the minors.

What excites me though is this was not the stock move the Phillies-specifically the Amaro regime- makes. I fully expected Cloyd to be the guy that comes up for this so I was pleasantly surprised to see Pettibone's name pop up. And if he does well maybe that means the Durbin or Valdes experience ends.

I assumed that Durbin's improvement was noted in the previous thread -- that he dropped his inherited runners scoring % from 100 to 89.

8-11, run differential of -14, one of the starters on the mend for 2 months, cleanup hitter with an OPS of .685/ISO of .108, starting CF with an OPS of .493, starting LF with an OPS of .664, atrocious middle relief...

This is a bad team right now.

I assumed that Durbin's improvement was noted in the previous thread -- that he dropped his inherited runners scoring % from 100 to 89.

Posted by: Edmundo | Monday, April 22, 2013 at 07:27 AM

There's a parade planned for 10am today, down Broadway.

Fatalotti: But we were told specifically last night that bad teams find ways to lose the games like last night, and good teams find ways to win them.

So do we assume the phillies are a good team or that people are just posting dopey things in the 7th inning of a game?

TTI, I've always hated the "good teams find ways to win, bad teams find ways to lose" mantra, so no argument there.

down Broadway

Nicely played!

Pettibone is a backend prospect, but yes, he's better than Cloyd and certainly more interesting to watch.

He's not the type of prospect like Morgan or Biddle, both of whom have better stuff. Pettinone has mediocre stuff, but gets by with great feel for pitching. I think it's good to get him a start against a weak hitting team like Pittsburgh. He may be able to pitch his way through a quality start.

Don't be surprised if A.J. Burnett completely baffles the Phillies tonight. He's been pitching well this year, and has been pretty good since signing on with the Pirates.

13.13 K/9 against a 3 BB/9, with an average 44.2% GB-rate. Obviously, that strikeout rate isn't sustainable for a starter, but he's got a 2.41 xFIP, so he's definitely had a great start to the year.

I don't think anyone views Pettibone as a high end prospect. Just like the idea that he is a young guy that it is good to give a chance too instead of a retread like Cloyd or a bum like Valdes.

Pettibone is definitely young. Kid's got a future ahead of him.

Oof, Vance Worley has a .403 BAbip against this year. Ouch.

"...and has been pretty good since signing on with the Pirates."

C'mon Fatti, you're better than that. He got traded there along with 20MM.

C'mon Fatti, you're better than that. He got traded there along with 20MM.

Posted by: awh | Monday, April 22, 2013 at 08:38 AM

Whatever.

I just took another look at the Revere and Kratz highlights in the 8th.

On the pitch to Revere, Boggs totally missed his spot. Molina had his glove set up inside and the ball was out over the plate.

OTOH, on the Kratz dinger, Molina sets up inside and Boggs pitch looks like it's headed right at Molina's glove, because his glove doesn't move until Kratz turns on the pitch.

As bad as it made Boggs look, I'll hang that one on Molina - Kratz is a middle-in hitter and looks foolish when you throw him slop on the outer half. Molina made a mistake challenging a guy inside with a FB, a guy who looks for that pitch early in the count.

Just bad pitch calling by Molina, IMHO.

FAtti, .403 BAbip?

I wonder if that's because he's getting unlucky or because he's getting rocked?

Fata: Good possibility but the Phillies lineup historically has been very tough for Burnett. Phillies hitters are sporting a .265/.354/.446/.799 line and Burnett has surrendered 60 runs in 106 innings. Last year he went 6.2 innings and gave up 3 runs in a 5-4 win. That was the game where Kendrick gave up 5 in the first inning.

Just took a look at Worley's gamelogs:

He's been up and down - two awful starts and two decent starts. He went 7 innings in his last one and gave up one run to CHW, with 7 K and 1 BB.

The start before that he lasted one inning yielding 9 runs (7 earned) on 7 hits in a 57 pitch debacle against the powerhouse Mets. OUCH.

awh: Almost as if Worley took his struggles against the Mets to the AL.

TTI, b-r.com indicates that guys currently on the Phils roster are .255/.335/.462 against Burnett, which is pretty close to the numbers you posted.

Utley rakes him, sporting a .999 OPS, with 8 hits in 27 AB (32 PA).

Howard has a .969 OPS against Burnett, despite having only 3 hits and 9 Ks in 17 AB (19 PA). All three hits are HR.

MYoung (.668) and JRoll (.723) have mixed results, Revere has 3 hits in 5 AB/PA, Kratz is 1/3 (HR) and Nix is 0/3 with 3 Ks.


Fata: Good possibility but the Phillies lineup historically has been very tough for Burnett. Phillies hitters are sporting a .265/.354/.446/.799 line and Burnett has surrendered 60 runs in 106 innings. Last year he went 6.2 innings and gave up 3 runs in a 5-4 win. That was the game where Kendrick gave up 5 in the first inning.

Posted by: The Truth Injection | Monday, April 22, 2013 at 08:51 AM

Yeah, but how well did that career-numbers stuff work out with Arroyo and Bailey?

I'm getting tired of Jack constantly trying to say the Phils are a good team. They are ranked below average to average in almost every category, they deserve to be 8-11 right now.

Yes, the Phils won last night and Jack got to gloat all night how 'good teams' find a way to win, but his schtick about how good this team is needs to stop.

That's odd, Kratz hit a 3 run HR, but clout told me he was washed up. I guess his usual short attention span didn't allow him to see past a few weeks of the season so far.

Wait. I thought Jack was a Braves fan.

lore, I would characterize the current state of the Phillies as thus:

They are a team with talented players (some aging), many (Howard, Brown, Revere, Hamels, etc.) who have underperformed, and thus, are not a good team - right now.

The talent is on the roster for them to be a good team, but they have played poorly in all facets of the game thus far, with a few flashes of brilliance here and there which has led to 8 wins.

ok, my reverse trolling itch is gone.

Good win for Phils to break even. Going into this series I had them -3 from their 'expected pace' based on the theory of winning almost all series @ home and losing series to top 5 teams on the road.

I would give them a -.5 for splitting with the cards at home, and hopefully they can win the Pirates series for a +.5 to even out.

my frustration post to bench DOM for the rest of the night after his first AB as followed by him reaching base 3 straight times. Repent.

awh: how do I see those splits on BR you mentioned?

Also, the Phillies are a good team on paper but on the field they have had way too many miscues- both pitching and defensively- to translate that into wins. There are definite bright spots but all the cogs are not working together yet.

Are the Phillies a "good team" on paper? I think they're a .500 team on paper, with an equal chance to be good (read 87-90 wins) or bad (read 72-75 wins).

Saw a couple of encouraging things from Howard last night (at the plate, I mean). RBI flyout was to CF, and while his timing was off per the ESPN swing breakdown, he didn't just roll it over. He hit a ball on the ground to the right side of 2nd base, and had a long foul down the left field line. Hopefully all indicate he's trying to go to stay back and got to left field more.

Until he's not hitting in the warm weather, I'm not going to conclude Howard is done. Still think he'll hit a ton this season.

Also, when do we start getting concerned about Domonic Brown's continued ability to post a respectable BAbip?

His 3 straight season that his BAbip has declined (.282, .272, .260, .250). Obviously, we're dealing with some sample size issues, but he's got 556 career PAs now with a BAbip of .267, and that .267 isn't combposed of a couple high years and low years. They've all been low.

Obviously his ISO is a little low this year compared with what he's done in the past and expectations, but his BB rate and K-rate are pretty much in line with career averages and expectations. The kid just doesn't seem to hit the ball hard, which is limiting his ability to get hits when he does make contact.

Let's hope it's all a mirage of an incomplete sample, but the early returns are not encouraging.

TTI,

To answer your question, mediocre at best. At its core, its still a team that lives and dies by the starts it gets from its pitching. Add an effective Halladay and a Hamels not in a funk, going 7 or close to it, this team has a chance to hang around the wildcard chase.

However, in the other aspects of the game the holes are glaring. Defense is poor, situational hitting is poor, power is poor, OBP is poor, middle relief is poor.

This team has good starting pitching, speed, good back end of pen but is offset by multiple categories that can only be described as poor. With good SP, they are probably a 84 - 85 win team. No Halladay and a consistently down year from Hamels or Lee and this thing could get really bad really fast.

TTI, easy:

1) go to b-r.com, and find the pitcher for whom you're looking.

2) once you get the player's (pitcher's) page, you'll see a menu bar underneath the place where it says "Standard Pitching" that has 6 tabs.

3) the 5th item on the list is "vs. Batter".

4) click on "vs. Batter" and you'll see the menu where you can sort the pitcher's numbers against current rosters and some other things.

Fatti, IMO they're a slightly above .500 team on paper, maybe 85 - 87 wins. Last year's team was a .500 team and they were decimated by injuries to HHU, Chooch, Worley, Contreras, etc.

If everthing clicks right for them the rest of the way, they could get to 92 - 94 wins, but that means EVERYTHING has to click, and no major injuries. Unfortunately, the Lannan DL trip is likely to cost them a game or two, unless the offense miraculously comes around.

Fata/541: I had the Phillies as an 88 win team this season and I hold by that. I think Howard's power will come and the biggest hole offensively on the team has been Revere (who isn't nearly as bad as he has been the first couple weeks of this season) and Kratz/Quintero which will cease to exist once Chooch returns (which may even be a little longer).

I am encouraged by Halladay the past two starts. He is starting to look like a guy who is pitching to his ability at this point instead of stubbornly trying to hold to what he did in the past. Also, I don't expect Hamels to continue to hold a 6+, or even a 4+ ERA all year long. And I also don't expect Valdes and/or Durbin to be on the team for long.

Again- there are bright spots so far (M. Young, Nixberry, Adams and Papelbon) but not everything is quite coming together yet. They have done so far what you need to in order to make hay at some point. Beat up on the bad teams (Mets and Marlins 4-2) and eventually they will start winning against the better teams.

Yes they were swept by the Reds but in that sweep they pushed the Reds to the limit twice. The first game of the Cardinals series could've gone either way and the Royals game Hamels pitched should've been a win. Say 2 of those games go the other way and we are looking at a 10-9 team going into tonight and I would venture the dialogue is very different on here.

right now they have holes but this is a good week for them to try and fix them as they play the Pirates and Marlins. Very good chance we have a .500 ballclub coming out of this week.

The Pirates just went 7-2 at home against Cincy, St. Louis and Atlanta. They're not a pushover by any stretch. Burnett has had strike out stuff over his first few starts but, has run deep counts and generally not gone as deep in games as he should. His curveball is very sharp, early, and will present a challenge. Wandy Rodriguez has pitched as well as he has in his whole career and probably presents a bigger challenge for the Phils' lineup. Bucs' lineup has some guys with holes in their games, and the awful Clint Barmes at the bottom. Still, it may be the deepest lineup they've had in a decade and, I'm not sure I wouldn't trade theirs for ours at this point, at least sans Ruiz.

I had them as an 80-win team before the season and don't see much to change my mind on that.

The underlying numbers on offense aren't pretty--the team is 24th in OBP, 20th in SLG, and 20th in runs. They've actually probably scored more runs then you would expect, given that they've had an unsustainably good .313 BA pinch-hitting (thanks mostly to Laynce Nix), at-bats which usually come with runners on and result in runs. They also have a team-wide BABIP of .308, which is a little higher than you'd expect.

Ultimately, the offense will be the main issue with the team. It's a team that lacks power and on-base ability. That means you don't score a lot of runs. The pitching is likely to be just fine in the long-run (though it will appear a little worse than it actually is, thanks to poor defense). But the offense has not shown me anything to change my mind. I know Revere will get better, but Young and Mayberry will regress as well.

Fat-- BABIP doesn't start to normalize until about 1100 PA. Brown has about half that.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/a/14215

Sorry, I meant to say "stabilize" instead of "normalize"

Hugh: Certainly not a pushover. The only reason I think we might be able to swipe 3 of 4 from them is that the phillies (for whatever reason) play better in CBP against the Pirates than at PNC.

"BABIP doesn't start to [stabilize] until about 1100 PA. Brown has about half that."

That doesn't really mean much, since we have no idea what a stabilized Domonic Brown BABIP looks like.

BAP: I think that was the point.

Speaking of Dom, I was surprised that no one commented on the fact that his 8th inning hit would have been a routine fly-out without the no-doubles defense. My point is not to detract from an achievement as rare as a Domonic Brown hit. My point is that the no-doubles defense yet again ended up doing more harm than good.

I would imagine Dom is on a really short leash right now. Originally, RAJ was prepared to give him until at least the All-Star break to show what he can do. But, after those 2 walks last night, RAJ is running out of patience.

TTI, I agree the Phils win totals could jump WITH EVERYTHING FALLING INTO PLACE.

My question is, when does that ever happen? I do know that injuries happen, and right now the Phils are one key injury (Hamels, Lee, Utley, Young, Rollins etc) from being in an even more precarious position. Let's face it: a cause can be made that its not if it will happen, but rather when will the injury happen.

I guess the actuarial side of me looks at these factors and sees a team without the type of Capital to overcome some type of devastating development.

Jack also brings up regression to the mean. Your arguments bring up the positive side of it, but you also have to take into account that JMJ will not end the season with a .960 OPS and how long can we reasonably expect Chase Utley to produce at this level with a chronic degenerative knee condition? How long can we expect Antonio Bastardo to have a spotless record? When will get the 3-4 start stretch where KK has a 6 era?

I see much of these things evening out. I see .500 or just above.

I can't believe JMJ's current slash line is .316/.409/.553. It sure doesn't feel like it.

CSN reports that this might be Pettibone's only start, unless he impresses greatly. Otherwise, we might expect to see Morgan up for the next 5th-starter start.

Pettibone's already on the 40-man (with all his options), so it wasn't a big deal to bring him up, and it won't be send him back down in favor of a fully-rested Morgan.

It won't be *to* send him back down, that should read.

541: With Galvis around, does J-Roll fits into the season destroying injury category anymore? I don't know that over a representative # of at bats that Galvis would match Rollins bat, obviously, but the dropoff in total package might not be devastating. Not that I want Jimmy to get hurt.

Even if Galvis puts together a BA comparable with Jimmy (which I find unlikely), I don't think his power numbers or OBP gets too close. Rollins has been funkin' lately, but his recent history and earlier-season numbers suggest that's not the norm, while Galvis' do the opposite.

Besides, if Galvis becomes the starting SS, who becomes our 4.5th outfielder?

jbird,

Rollins is averaging 17 HR's and 36 steals for a career. Averaging 38 doubles and 9 triples. Last year, he was not far off those marks - 23 HR 30 steals 33 doubles 5 triples. Really no reason to not expect him to get something near those numbers. Does anyone really expect that kind of line out of Freddy Galvis?

Yes his OBP is low. Should anyone really be expecting a high OBP from Rollins? The only person in the entire Delaware Valley who seemed to think that was Charlie Manuel, unfortunately.

And then there is defense, which maybe isn't as spectacular as it was but is still rock solid. Honestly, I would expect great defense from Galvis, but you never know what can happen to an exceptionally skilled defensive player when they are asked to make the ordinary play every single day. That kind of pressure can often make one error prone if they don't have the right makeup (see: Ordonez, Rey).

So yes, I would see an injury to Jimmy to be very difficult to overcome.

Brown's LD% over the last 2 years is 25%. He's got a 10% BB rate. You'd think this would make him an above average offensive player. .659 career BABip on line drives.

Nick Markakis, a guy who commonly compare him too, has a .313 BAbip over the last two seasons with a 24% LD rate and a 9% BB. .745 BAbip on line drives.

Is there something special about Brown's line drives?

"Is there something special about Brown's line drives? "

He hits them right at people. He and Wally should be working on that.

I like Revere's spirit:

"I was really ticked," Revere said of the bases-loaded, inning-ending double play he hit into in the sixth. "I thought that sucker was up the middle and it seemed like that ball stuck. I just came in the clubhouse and tried to calm myself. When I went up there [in the eighth], I was like, 'I've got to redeem myself right here.' "

541: The point to me is do the guys regressing to the mean in a positive way outweigh those guys regressing in a negative way.

For instance: Halladay, Hamels, Howard, Revere and Rollins right now I would say are underperforming and there is no Chooch.

Nixberry is overperforming right now and Kendrick is to some degree as well. And we can include Utley and Bastardo if you want.

So does the contributions of the 5 up front- with the addition of Chooch replacing Kratz/Quintero outweigh the regression of others. I think it does.

Sophist, I guess the only way to answer that is to try to find a spray chart on Dom's LD.

Maybe that will tell us something.

I just checked his career splits, and he certainly does get on when he hits a LD.

This carrer data is troubling, though:

vs. Power Pitcher: .198/.289/.250, 135 PA

vs. avg. P/F pitcher: .213/.306/.373, 173 PA

vs. Finesse Pitcher: .268/.335/.460, 248 PA

I can't believe JMJ's current slash line is .316/.409/.553. It sure doesn't feel like it.

That was supposed to be Dom's line, a fact which is going to prove inconvenient for r00b when it comes time to bench Mayberry for D. Young.

Hey, if Galvis has the bat to man LF, I think moving him to short stop is a no brainer.

jbird,

Just because he's being sent out to play left doesn't mean he has the bat to be playing there. I wouldn't use this current outfield situation as a benchmark to evaluate a player's capabilities.

Sophist: Where are you getting those LD rates?

Fangraphs shows him with a 2013 LD rate of 26.1%. In 2012, it was 20.6. I don't know how to calculate a 2-year LD rate on my own because: (1) Fangraphs, for whatever reason, doesn't tell you the total number of balls in play; and (2) it has never been clear to me exactly what they consider to be a ball in play. But, since he had a lot more PAs in 2012 than he does this year, I can't see how a 26.1% 2013 rate, and a 20.6% 2012 rate, would balance out to 25%.

Its embarrassing EMBARRASSING the poor quality and drivel that is our nightly Phillies telecast.

I just checked his career splits, and he certainly does get on when he hits a LD.

Everyone does. Brown just does at a strangely low rate. I think average BAbip on LD is something like .700.

BAP - I used B-R.com. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/browndo01-bat.shtml

BAP: According to Baseball Reference Brown has hit 12 line drives in 46 balls in play this year. Last year it was 38 out of 155.

That gives you 50 out of 201 over the past two seasons. His line drive percentage last year was actually 24.5% according to them.

Also curious that Brown has a low BAbip on FB. That could say more about his lack of power and the park he plays in, though. I wonder what he'd hit in Coors.

bap, go to th eplayer splits page b-r.com.

They break down GB, FB, and LD by PA. All you have to do is a simple calc to add up the PA/AB and the number of hits.

Sophist: Thanks. Interesting to me that Fangraphs has his 2012 LD rate at 20.6 & B-Ref has it at 25%. That's a HUGE difference; it's like one outfit showing the guy with a 3.00 ERA, and the other showing it as 4.86.

I've always been a little leery about LD%, in general, because it's so subjective. Seeing that the B-Ref & Fangraphs numbers are 4.4% apart certainly does nothing to assuage my leeriness.

The question TTI, is what is the correct mean to assume that the older veteran type guys will move back to?

Take a guy like Howard. Many on this board seem to think that his injury is still affecting him. Will he ever be the same? Are his mean career numbers really still accurate? Or is his trend line, which has been declining and is now possibly even more on a negative slope due to chronic injury a more accurate depiction?

541: I think Jimmy has a borderline HoF case, but he's been more of a counting stat guy than a ratio guy since 2008, when he was 29 years old. Between 2009 & 2012 Jroll has a .729 OPS, how much of a dropoff from that would "devestate the season"? considering the possible uptick in D? Jimmy had a 0 dWAR last year while Galvis had a 1.1 in many fewer opportunities. I don't know. I don't want to lose Jimmy and I have no idea what Galvis's bat will grow into considering his age, how fast he was pushed, and past (lack of) production, just think it's an interesting scenario.

Mick O: A national writer who doesn't like Philadelphia? I'm shocked! Shocked!!

From the comments from the Neyer article Mick O posted, sounds like someone neatly summed up the anti-Amaro discussion on Beerleaguer over the last week:

"This team, just five years ago, won a World Series with a group of mostly home-grown players just beginning their prime years, it had a stacked farm system, and it had the finances to match most other big-market teams in the free agent market. Now, in 2013, the farm system is mostly barren, the GM brags about shunning modern player analysis, management is tripping over itself to sell its fans on the notion that Delmon Young is somehow going to make this team better, and the manager and GM insist its injured past-their-prime veterans will somehow magically produce like they are healthy 28 year-olds again. This team could someday be a case study for sports management classes."

jbird: That's no rarity, I know. But, it's notable to me in that he dislikes the Phillies for mostly accurate reasons. It's rare among any media (that I've seen) to call out the Delmon Young debacle as how bad it really is.

I'm sorry, but the Delmon Young thing is kind of embarassing, all around. The fact that he's a bad player and has character questions, the fact that we're switching him to a position he hasn't played in six years and actually playing Dom Brown in the wrong position because of it, the idea that they're going to hope he plays good defense despite years of evidence that he can't, the idea that his bat adds value which is based almost entirely on his (not even particularly impressive) RBI numbers.

It really is pretty bad. I can't say I blame any national writer for mocking the Phillies over it.

Agreed. There has been a lot of piling on the Phillies over the years. A lot of it seemed silly in light of the success. Now that it seems warranted it's only natural for the FO to get lambasted.

TTI, per your 12:02 post:


Agree with everything except maybe "expecting" a regression from Utley. Right now, we don't know anything - we don't know what to expect from Utley.

His 2013 OPS is exactly at his career average, though derived differently.

His .347 OBP is not only lower than his career average (.376), it's also .020 lower than the .367 he posted in the pain-filled 2010-2012 seasons. Yes, lower than 2010-2012.

His .529 SLG is higher than his career average (.500), and significantly higher than the .433 SLG he posted in 2010-2012, so perhaps he'll regress. (He posted a .523 SLG through 2009.)

However, if that Philly magazine article is to be believed, Utley has worked on realigning the bones in his lower half, and claims to be more pain free now than in the last 3 years.

If that's the case, while we may not be able to expect to see him post a .529 SLG the rest of the season, it might be the case that it's significantly higher than the .433 he posted in '10-'12.

That, coupled with an OBP which I expect to be higher (yes, I'll take the "over" on Utley's 2013 OBP at .3475), then he may very well be able to post an OPS right in line with his career average (.876), which, coincidentally, is where he is right now.

OBP being more important than SLG when it comes to scoring runs, perhaps we should welcome Utley on the basepaths a little more frequently even if he doesn't get as many XBH.

Again, we don't know what to expect from Utley, but if he really is mostly pain-free, then it's not out of the question that he can produce at this level for the entire season.

Neyer didn't say anything I haven't read before in the comments sectionon BL - some of it 2 -3 months ago.

Rob's a little behind the curve.

People are going overboard with the Phils being somekind of unusual case where the organization got long in tooth, made some miscalculations, and didn't come up with new alternatives to replace standby.

Viewpoint on Amaro too is more nuanced than that. I wouldn't say he goes out of his way to shun new advancements. He just places more emphasis on traditioanl scouting and video analysis.

Even with D. Young, the Phils are paying him basically veteran league minimum and seeing if he can even play the OF after the injury. Yeah Young is a terrible defensive OF and playing him in RF seems pretty dopey but the alternative is a marginal stiff like Carrera who is a no-hit, no-bat.

That is what Neyer should argue because that is the strategc decision - is D. Young more useful on the roster than Carrera? I would argue yes because of Young's bat over Carrera's speed.

I don't "dislike" the Phillies for signing No-DYoung, I just think it was a terribly misguided move.

Let's put the character issues aside. Let's pretend he has a sterling character, and a tremendous work ethic, and that he never got fat and sloppy and needed a weight clause in his contract.

Even given those two items, would it have made sense to sign a guy who has produced at the level he has the last 3 - 4 seasons?

The last 4 seasons, including his "stellar" 2010, he's posted a line of .279/.310/.433, with only 83 BB and 370 Ks. That's a pretty crappy OBP. 83 walks in 4 years?

Contrast that with Mayberry's slash line from '09-'12: .254/.313/.448 (and better defender).

They signed him even though they actually have a better all-around player already on the roster. That's what makes it so inexplicable.

Oh well, I guess it's about "production".

MG, good point about No-DYoung. Compared to Carrera he looks OK. Compared to the other corner OF on the roster he doesn't really provide an upgrade.

Mocking an org is one thing. That's part of his job. "Rooting against" an org is another. Just unprofessional and petty.

"Yeah Young is a terrible defensive OF and playing him in RF seems pretty dopey but the alternative is a marginal stiff like Carrera who is a no-hit, no-bat."

If the Phillies actually viewed Young as an alternative to Carrera, they would neither receive nor deserve nearly as much grief. But their every comment and action makes clear that they view him as a starting right fielder and, hence, an alternative to Nixberry.

At one point last night Boone described the Phillies as 8 highly paid guys plus 17 some dudes. Of course, not long after that, a couple of the wealthy guys tried to kick the game away while a couple of the dudes surprised everyone.

awh, Young played in a tougher league than Mayberry. I think they are pretty close to the same player offensively, although Young might have a higher upside. I said MIGHT, just in case the Gotcha Gang is looking for someone to attack today.

I'm sure the extra RBIzzz and BA appeals to Amaro as "Production".

in fairness, the Phillies farm system would have deteriorated regardless of what Ruben did, the players simply didn't pan out.

Young hasn't played a single inning. Amaro said he wouldn't play if he can't field. He's signed for relatively little. It's not the worlds best baseball move, but it had it'a reasons. I'm usually struck by how eager some people are to criticize this team. Guy is making $750k and hasn't played an inning yet.

Sophist: I agree but also see the point of those trashing Rube for the move. It's one thing to sign him to see if you can catch lightning in a bottle. It's quite another to call him your starting right fielder when he gets healthy, and actually move guys around to accommodate him.

For Neyer to claim he's rooting against a franchise because he doesn't respect their decisions is extremely unprofessional and quite amateurish.

Edmundo, fair enough, but I was really referencing their comparative all-around abilities.

No-DYoung might have a better bat. Mayberry is superior in every other facet of the game.

awh, ah, so you are suggesting a little better reading comprehension. :) I do agree with your point overall, surely.

What BAP is saying is incorrect, unsurprisingly. Every indication from the FO has been if he can't play the field, he won't start. Like, 100% of the indications.

Nobody is paying attention to what is actually being said; they're just inventing a narrative as a means to rip the signing.

Sophist, it's really about allocating resources. Yes, they're only paying him 750K (it's actually 1.15 with the weight bonuses), but IMHO, with RFD already on the roster, they would have been better served to use that $1.15MM to add better middle relief than Chad Durbin (they could have added the Durbin/Young money together and actually shored up the BP).

I believe better middle relief would win them more games than No-DYoung.

"For Neyer to claim he's rooting against a franchise because he doesn't respect their decisions is extremely unprofessional and quite amateurish."

I actually hate when people always whine that some writer is "anti-philly", since every single fan says the same thing about their team about the same person...

But ever since Ryan Howard was signed to that deal, an extremely large percentage of SABR-oriented analysts have been begging for a Phillies decline to use it as a "win" for SABR over old school.

For Neyer to admit a similar line of thought is just saying what every one of his peers already does.

Everything being taken into consideration, I hope No-DYoung pans out. I hope he hits like he did in 2010. I hope he posts an .826 OPS because it will only help the team.

But the simple fact is that this guy has gotten on base less in the last 2 seasons than Ben Revere.

Well, if clout is right that the lineup analyzer says they should put one of the worst hitters in the 3-hole, maybe Charlie should do this if he actually plays:

Rollins
Utley
No-DYoung
Howard
MYoung
Brown
Chooch
Revere
P

The problem with what Neyer says is that he can now longer write about the Phillies without having the glare of "Well he hates them.." hanging over him. Why a national writer would sabotage his own opinions and brand like that is ridiculous. Even if he is right it comes off petty and childish.

BAP: But if Young replaces Nixberry- Nixberry replaces Carrera. That is a net positive even with Young in the outfield.

I am with Sophist in that I can't understand the level of hand-wringing over the D. Young signing. It is 750K for a guy that maybe gives you some pop from the right side.

I think my problem with the D Young signing is a point that Jack's made several times. There is loads of evidence, as in his ENTIRE major league career, that he can't play defense at all. So what exactly is RAJ hoping to learn in a couple week's worth of games post surgery?

If it's that he can't play defense at an adequate level to be a viable NL regular, well you've wasted your money, because the data has been out there.

If he'll allow himself to be won over by those same handful of games that D Young can actually play the field competently, then he's weighting a disastrously small sample size against the preponderance of years of data that, once again, prove conclusively that D Young can't play the field.

So he's setting himself up for failure either way.

"What BAP is saying is incorrect, unsurprisingly. Every indication from the FO has been if he can't play the field, he won't start. Like, 100% of the indications."

And, equally unsurprisingly, Vexatious Troll has omitted some important details from his assertion -- such as, for instance, the following quote from RAJ, upon Delmon Young's acquisition:

"He's a much better right fielder. As he came through the system in Tampa Bay he played center and right. He was a plus defender in right and for whatever circumstances, he got away from that and started playing left in other organizations and he's much more suited for right field."

There is absolutely zero evidence to support RAJ's statement that Delmon Young is a much better right fielder than left fielder. In fact, there is a mountain of evidence to refute this view. Yet, the Phillies are so confident in Delmon Young's ability to play RF that they have anticipatorily moved their most natural right fielder to LF -- substantially weakening the overall defense in the process.

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