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Sunday, April 28, 2013

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Rest of the pitching match-ups through next Sunday:

Halladay-McAllister
Lee-???
Kendrick-Sanabia
Pettibone-Nolasco
Hamels-Fernandez
Halladay-Slowey

Should have 4-2 or 5-1 written all over it. They'll need it, too, because they have Bumgarner-Lincecum-Zito lined up in San Francisco next week (of course they're missing Cain when he's really struggling this year).

Only a BLer can hitting two bombs in two days be proof that I'm a Punch-and-Judy hitter.

BTW - whoever is posting under my monicker - it's OK only as long as you do it to give Jack a hard time.

To expand on the idea that Howard's ball not getting out means he has lost his power. According to ESPN's home run tracker, the avg HR this season has traveled 396.8 feet. That's about 5-8 feet shorter than Howard's ball.

Hamels fastball command is off kilter, but he got it done today. Maybe he's pitching through some soreness. Hopefully, he'll get it together. His last two starts were good.

This is a part of the schedule they need to attack. Cleveland has a doubleheader today and plays tomorrow. They should ambush them on Tuesday.

"This is a part of the schedule they need to attack."

Sadly, most of April was the part of the schedule they needed to attack.

For what it is worth, the Phils have played the 11th toughest schedule today based upon their opponents winning pct in MLB. 6th in the NL.

I never said Howard's lost his power, i said he's lost elite power. And Howard without elite power is hardly a good player.

He can still be a an above average hitter, which is a 100% necessity for the Phillies to have a worthwhile offense, but unfortunately above average isn't going to cut it.

lorecore- That's a completely fair statement and the one numbers bare out across the board. Question is does Howard hit even 30 HRs this year but he is no longer the 40+ HR guy he was in '09 (and largely what he got paid based upon that elite power).

lorecore: Did you want to post April records for the past 5 years today?

If the Phils beat Cleveland on Tuesday, they'll avoid the magic number 15 losses in April. Pencil in Doc vs McAllister as a must win.

McAllister is a pretty basic fastball/power curve pitcher. Pretty decent at both pitches as well. A young brett myers type.

Paying for power:

There was 1 person in the NL who hit 40+ HRs last year (Braun with 41)

5 in the AL did (Cabrera, Hamilton, Granderson, Encarnion, Dunn)

Just for historical perspective, you had 16 guys do it in '00. 13 in '01.

If Howard was still a 40+ HR, guy he would almost certainly be a .860-870 OPS guy or better.

Last year, .870 OPS would have been good for 20th in MLB

If he had a .900 OPS, it would have been 12 in MLB.

That was what Howard was paid on and unfortunately due to age (and largely the Achilles), he won't get back there.

The question to me this year was whether he would hit 30+ HRs and be above an .800 OPS guy. I said yes to both and predicted 33 HRs. We'll see if the HRs come but I do think Howard will finish with an OPS slightly above .800 as long as his power comes back somewhat.

He's still really overpaid but that is a separate discussion.

Howard is hitting balls hard on the outside of the plate too which is a good sign he is locked in.

I have no idea even after watching Howard all of these years why at times he appears to be utterly clueless for stretches flailing away in futility at pitches low-and-away out of the zone and he goes into such deeps funks only to eventually come out and go on a tear. Just strange.

Well, lorecore is being shy today although he was quite aggressive a few days ago.

Here are Aprils past and present:

2006 10-14
2007 11-14
2008 15-12
2009 11-9
2010 12-10
2011 18-8
2012 11-12
2013 11-14

RE: Howard, take a step back for a minute.

In 2.5 games, Howard had 7 RBI. He hit, by my highly unofficial count, six balls in the air: one was a HR, another went 405 ft off the wall, another was caught against the fence in left, two others landed on the Citi Field warning track, and the last one did whatever Howard's final AB was today (wasn't around to see it).

What he did this series, singlehandly pretty much, was make sure that each of these games was not competitive in the late innings (with a big assist from DB yesterday). Because of Ryan Howard, in other words, no bullpen innings of great stress or consequence were expended this weekend during a span when Mike Adams was unavailable for two games.

Outside the occasional Utley outburst, only Howard affords that luxury. It's been like that for like eight years around here.

Bastardo holding hitters to a .133 AVG (4-30) while only needing to strike out 7 per 9IP.

clout, I don't know what point you're trying to make, but I see this:

2006: Lost April, missed playoffs
2007: Lost April, scraped into playoffs last day of season
2008: Won April, got in playoffs
2009: Won April, got in playoffs
2010: Won April, got in playoffs
2011: Won April, got in playoffs
2012: Lost April, missed playoffs
2013: Lost April, ???

Again, I don't know what your point is, though.

clout: Is there a point you'd like to make based on those April records?

"It's been like that for like eight years around here."

True. But Burrell and Werth got a lot of walks.

bittel, of course when Howard hits homeruns and drives in lots of run, it's good for the team. But when he's striking out a lot, not walking and not hitting home runs, it's bad for the team. We all get these things, and so a series in which Howard was great doesn't cancel out the wretchedness he displayed throughout most of this month, in which this team's offense scuffled, leading to all that stress on the bullpen and the pitching staff and, mostly, losses.

And Phlipper is right. Walks are meaningless.

2005: 10-14

Phils are now a combined 110-107 (.507) in April under Cholly. Outside of it they are at a 639-476 (.573) or a 93-game win pace.

I guess the point clout is trying to make is that Cholly has preached starting strong out of the gate every year at least since '07 that was something they did from '08-'11.

Cholly has managed 1322 now as a Phils' manager is in the next 2 weeks will pass Mauch (1332 games from 1960-68) as the all-time leaders in games managed by a Phils' skipper.

That's a lot of games. Mets' leader is Davey Johnson at 1012 games with Bobby Valentine right behind him (1003 games).

Braves have Cox at an outstanding 3860 games. 2 other HOF managers in Selee (1677 games) from the 1890s and McKechnie (1235 games) from the 1930s.

Expos/Nationals have F. Alou at 1409 games and Mauch at 1127 and Rodgers at 1020.

Marlins leader is Fredi (555 games) with McKeon (538) and Lachemann (506).


Fata- how long does a player have to perform well to get off your sh*t list? First Hamels and his two bad starts to begin the season. Now Howard's recent success is irrelevant because he sucked to start the year.

So by the end of the season, Cholly will have managed more games than any other manager among the current NL East teams accept Cox.

Even with all of the talent he has had, that still means something especially today given how frequently managers are rotated in and out.

Saw a stat last year I think that managers hired since '90 have last a little 3 seasons with their team.

Cholly was also pretty gregarious after the game. First time all year. Always enjoyed that version of Cholly who is upbeat, perky, and even manages out a wisecrack or two in the post game press conference.

Still is a guy I would love to have a beer with or go fishing while he talks baseball and give you some personal stories that are colorful/off-the-record.

Ice, who said irrelevant? Why are you making up stuff?

Why, why do players slide head first into 1st base. It is a great way to get hurt and it is slower than just running through the bag.

Posted by: MG | Sunday, April 28, 2013 at 03:41 PM

Anyone remember when Kenny Lofton destroyed his shoulder doing that in the 1999 playoffs? He was never the same player he was after that injury.

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After a rough start, Ryan was finally hot as heck. So I decided he needed a day off.

"We all get these things, and so a series in which Howard was great doesn't cancel out the wretchedness he displayed throughout most of this month, in which this team's offense scuffled, leading to all that stress on the bullpen and the pitching staff and, mostly, losses."

Sure sounds like "Who cares what he did this series? He sucked the first three weeks" to me.

Maybe he wanted to give him a day off because it was a day after a night against a LHP and figured it might throw him off to face a decent LHP? Much like giving a guy off against a Knuckleballer.


Also, after the complaints people had about Howard never getting days off in ST, I think its a bit funny that when UC finally gives him a day off (but still PHs with him in a key spot) that people complain.

Seemed like UC managed Howard perfectly today...for once.

Sure sounds like "Who cares what he did this series? He sucked the first three weeks" to me.

Posted by: Iceman | Sunday, April 28, 2013 at 07:02 PM

No it doesn't.

NEPP: Yeah, I mean, the fact that Howard got to face a righty in his AB and delivered would seem to vindicate the strategy.

Seemed like UC managed Howard perfectly today ... for once.

Agreed.

Any reason we dumped Betancourt over Frandsen. Yuniescky 4hr 17 rbi with brewers. Thought he earned a spot this spring. Frandsen made the team based on a month last year.

@fata: but your take doesn't quite square with reality. Howard was pretty bad, but he still, before this hot spell, had a streak of 8 games where he produced 12 hits, including four doubles, and had 0 RBI. Very few runners on for those hits. He hasn't finished a game since Apr 11 with an average below .277

I hate all the strikeouts and lack of walks. But he's something of a victim of circumstance too. There's literally no one to fear in this lineup but him (certainly no one who hits after him in the lineup, ever).

Lineup protection is a myth for the most part...per about 1 million studies on the subject.

Other than Stanton in Miami's lineup right now but that's an extreme case. Look at Sandoval in SF...he has Buster Posey behind him and never sees strikes.

***Any reason we dumped Betancourt over Frandsen. Yuniescky 4hr 17 rbi with brewers. Thought he earned a spot this spring. Frandsen made the team based on a month last year.***

Because the odds of that happening were about as likely as Frandsen posting that .834 OPS last year...and the odds of Betancourt doing that going forward are about the same as Frandsen repeating.

Betancourt is not a good player.

Betancourt is not a good player.

Posted by: NEPP | Sunday, April 28, 2013 at 07:26 PM

Water is wet. The sun is hot.

Phillies are now 3-0 in games I don't watch (or watch only a small piece of).

Also, I'm not sure the Betancourt/Frandsen question will decide the outcome of the season. An OF which hits for power only when Freddy Galvis is a part of it, however? Just maybe.

"We all get these things, and so a series in which Howard was great doesn't cancel out the wretchedness he displayed throughout most of this month,.."

I love this logic. So a player has strengths and weaknesses. And sometimes he's in a slump and sometimes he's hot. But let's all just focus on his weaknesses and his slumps. It's more fun that way.

Jesse Biddle's last two starts for Reading:

13 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 26 K's.

Dare I say, those are Hamels-esque numbers from his high minors days with the org.


Rube's made some rough 1st round picks since he's been the GM, but I think he got a pretty good one with Biddle.

Of the AAA/AA arms, Biddle has clearly had the best April. Morgan has been very good. DeFratus and Savery have been real good out of the pen, with both having ERA's under 1.

Martin has been inconsistant, especially with his command. Cloyd has really struggled. Stutes and Diekman have been awful and are clearly miles behind DeFratus and Savery in the big league pecking order.

Yuniesky Betancourt is debatably worse than Michael Martinez. He stinks.

Funny, Howard on a good streak so no mention of Ruf hitting 2 bombs today in Louisville.

"Yuniesky Betancourt is debatably worse than Michael Martinez."

I'm not a fan of Yuniesky Betancourt but let's not get carried away. The two are not even remotely comparable.

Atlanta down 3-0 early. A loss today would be their 4th in a row and 7 of their last 9.


Funny, Howard on a good streak so no mention of Ruf hitting 2 bombs today in Louisville.

Posted by: Dale Jones | Sunday, April 28, 2013 at 08:36 PM



Apparently you missed this Dale:

Ruf two homers and Franco another bomb. Cesar and Delmon 3 hits

Posted by: The Hook | Sunday, April 28, 2013 at 03:41 PM

That's good news

.261 .342 .464, 716 PA

.286 .299 .462, 97 PA


Top line? Ryan Howard's career slash line in April.

Bottom line? Ryan Howard's 2013 slash line through today's game.

Discuss.

Isn't it a bit early to call Ryan Howard washed up in the elite power department?

It's been a rather chilly April for the most part, and his ISO this year to date (.176) isn't that far off from his historical April ISO (.203). ISO stats courtesy of Fangraphs.com.

.261 .342 .464, 716 PA

.286 .299 .462, 97 PA


Top line? Ryan Howard's career slash line in April.

Bottom line? Ryan Howard's 2013 slash line through today's game.

Discuss.

Posted by: awh | Sunday, April 28, 2013 at 09:07 PM

Production™

It is torrential rain in Detroit right now, and they're just playing through it. Bad idea, if you ask me.

Fatalotti: I think you're going to see a lot more of this sort of thing w/ all-season Interleague Play. Typical Selig BS.

"Isn't it a bit early to call Ryan Howard washed up in the elite power department?"

Yeah, this was pretty ridiculous. The guy hit it to the deepest part of Citi Field off the top of the wall. Using that as an example of how his power is fading is kind of stupid.

Really need to give Howard through May to tell with any kind of certainty what he's going to give you power-wise. He just now looks like he's starting to heat up.

Elite power is 40+ HRs. 30+ HRs isn't. You had 29 guys hit at least 30 HR last year.

NEPP, yep, the only thing not at his historical norm for the month is his OBP.

If anyone here wants to argue that a .002 difference in SLG is statistically significant - please, go ahead and make a fool of yourself.

Simply put, the line being offered that Howard no longer has elite power - based on one game where he hit a couple of balls that were caught on the warning track(that's how I read it) - in a huge ballpark - is just not supported by the numbers.


Howard has always been a second half player:

.263 .343 .518, (2404 PA) in the first half.

.281 .382 .581, (2392 PA) in the second half.

Let's see where he ends up at the end of the season before we start declaring him a carcass.

Maybe he'll have a 2010 Big Papi type season.

Ortiz had a .671 OPS on May 10th that year and went on to post a .940 OPS with 30 2B/28 HR in his final 122 games.

A lot of folks thought Ortiz was cooked during that first 6 weeks.

"Isn't it a bit early to call Ryan Howard washed up in the elite power department?"

Yes. Period.

MG, to be fair, "elite" is determined relative to the league. If the you hit 32 HRs and that's the most HRs in baseball, then you have "elite" power.

ISO, of course, is the better measure of "elite" power. Howard hasn't been better than #21 in MLB in ISo since 2009.

Prince Fielder hit 30 HR last year. He's only hit 40+ HR twice in his career. Does that mean he doesn't have elite power?

My beef was that he trotted like he got it all, and he didn't. Bad sign to me.

Howard still might hit 30+ HRs although his slow April hasn't helped.

If you think he is going to 40+ HRs, you suddenly think he is going to display the kind of power he had in '06-'08 (HR every 11.2 ABs).

That was historic and since '10 it is just once every 18.0 ABs. If Howard just sticks to that pace, he is only going to hit another 23-25 HRs this year and not even crack 30.

MG, you post counting stat HR numbers, but what's your point?

For all we know Ryan Howard won't even hit 30 HR this season. I sure don't know - it's only April.

Point: You don't know either.

What was his HR pace for May-Oct those years? I'd imagine that 18 AB/HR is being skewed as a result of his typical cold start.

When you do something that 29 other MLBs did last year that does not make you 'elite' in that category.

Only 6 guys hit 40+ HRs and that is 'elite'

NEPP, I've been clamoring on here that I hope Howard has an Ortiz career arc for a while now.

And awh, .002 difference in slugging, but .027 dip in ISO.

Of course, Howard needs more time, and he'll get more time..hell, he'll get all season...to see what's left in the tank. The early returns were troublesome. Hopefully he keeps up what he's been doing lately.

MG, I don't get you. I really don't.

When it's to your advantage you argue slash lines and other metrics until the cows come home.

Now, you're shifting gears and arguing that counting stats are what matter.

Please elaborate.

awh - I posted in the game thread I thought he would before the start of the season (33). Now I don't know.

Still think he gets above an .800 OPS. Question of how much will be in large part dictated by how many HRs he hits. If he is at 35 and goes on a real tear in July or August, he might even push .830-.850 OPS.

Howard almost certainly doesn't have "elite" power anymore. He didn't in 2010 and 2011, either. He was 21st in baseball in ISO in 2010 and 2011 and 17th in HR in 2010 and 11 in HR in 2011.

Maybe he finds the fountain of youth this year, but I doubt he'll crack the top 10 in ISO or HR this year.

JC. I am not arguing that Howard will/won't hit 30 HRs. Not remotely what I said. I just posted the numbers and they don't favor it. That's all.

I would rather have Howard at 27-28 HRs and starting to take some BBs instead of 34-35 HRs and not hardly taking any BBs as he has done this season so far.

I thought before the season if Howard hit .250-.260 with 30+ HRs and a slight uptick in his % BB, that he would have had a really nice bounceback year.

Just too bad the Phils can't DH Howard because his defense this year has been really lacking again. Not as bad as it was last year when he had trouble even moving but he still has very little range and all of the other issues he used to have.

I don't care about ISO, I care about production.

I don't care about ISO, I care about production.

Posted by: The Truth Injection | Sunday, April 28, 2013 at 09:39 PM

But, well, um, you see...ahh, screw it.

Biggest disappointment in April has to be the Blue Jays (9-17). Everyone of their offseason acquisitions has been a disappointment so far and their starting pitching has been horrendous.

Funny thing is that JA Happ was talking a lot of crap in spring about how he deserved the last spot in the rotation & how well he was going to pitch. Actually delivered so far and was their best starter in April by a decent margin too.

It's entirely insane to be playing in rain like Detroit is experiencing.

Beerleaguer needs more lithium. Before the Mets' series, it was a lot of 'doom and gloom' on here.

Amazing how a 3-game sweep of a bad team without facing their ace changes the perception of things.

Today was the first game all year where I thought the Phils needed to win a game and finally did. Interested to see if they can build some momentum and go 4-2 or even 5-1 against two weaker opponents this week.

Curious to see if the Phils will make a roster move for the 2 Cleveland games and call up a bat to DH (Ruf/D. Young) to replace Carrera.

Biggest problem that Howard will have replicating what Ortiz has done the last couple seasons is the batting average. Ortiz has maintained great ISO (~.250+), and walk rates (~12-14%), while maintaining an average of over .300 each year. Had a 154 wRC+ two years ago and a 169 wRC+ last year.

Amazing how a 3-game sweep of a bad team without facing their ace changes the perception of things.

I'm thrilled the Phillies swept the Mets. I also still believe the Phillies are fielding a lousy team. We'll see if the next few series help to illuminate the situation.

"Howard almost certainly doesn't have "elite" power anymore. He didn't in 2010 and 2011, either."

Fatti, he was hurt in both of those seasons.

In 2011, he played on a bad Achilles all season before he tore it in the playoffs. That is a fact.

In 2010, he started slow again (8 HR at the end of May), and then hit 7 HR in June and 8 HR in July (a 45 HR/season pace - 15 HR in 205 AB, one every 13.67 AB ), and was on a massive tear before he hurt his ankle running the bases on August 1st and missed 3 weeks. After he came back he hit 1 HR every 17.9 AB - a significant decrease because of the injury.

I am not saying Howard still has "elite" power.

Given he injured his ankle in 2010 and the fact that he had an Achilles problem dating to 2011 which deteriorated into a tear, I think you can severely discount the last three seasons.

What I am saying is that given the above, we don't have enough information to know whether Howard still has "elite" power or not.

Because he has, factually, been a second half player, I'll weigh in at the end of the season.

Despite not having enough data, feel free to weigh in now. Maybe you'll be able to feel good at the end of the season because you'll be able to say "I told you so".

I also still believe the Phillies are fielding a lousy team.

Posted by: GTown_Dave | Sunday, April 28, 2013 at 09:53 PM

Who would have thunk it.

Mets' pitching staff is the panacea for the Phils' offense:

6 games vs Mets: 35 runs (5.8)

20 games vs everybody else: 63 runs (3.2)

Doesn't really mean anything but just one of those quirky early season baseball stats.

Phils ERA coming into today was 4.20 (12th) and it did go down a bit.

Slowly starting to keep downward. Phils were last in team ERA just 4-5 days ago in the NL.

To be an impact player, Howard needs to destroy RHP among the top 5-10 players in baseball. It doesn't sound fair, but its the truth that he's created himself.

He's one of the worst fielders and happens to play the least valuable defensive position on the diamond.

He can't hit lefties and has one of the highest % of PA vs LHP.

He's a pull hitter who gets shifted against.

He struggles with offspeed pitches and sees some of the lowest % of fastballs.

He strikes out a ton and gets into a lot of pitcher counts.

So after all of that... you are left with PA vs RHP, when he gets fastballs, when hes ahead in the count, that he can hit opposite field or over the wall.

And yet still, in his career he's excelled so strong in that limited slice of situation, that he's been a very good player. Today was an example of him coming through in that situation. Not maximizing on those opportunities is so critical to his success. If bombs to deep part of ballparks turn into 2B more often than in the past, he's digging himself even deeper into a limited opportunity.

It doesn't sound fair, but its the truth that he's created himself.


How?

awh, stop it. You're being a douchebag tonight. I want Howard to hit 50 HR this year. I just don't think he has top 10 ML power right now. You act like no other player in baseball plays through injuries or has slow starts, or bad months or slumps. Howard didn't have freak injuries those seasons. He had injuries that are part and parcel to his body type. And he's in his mid 30s now, with those lower half injuries now a part of his past.

And that's why it's called a prediction before you have the data. Didn't realize predictions were tantamount to treason round these parts. It's fair to reason that he's not going to display the kind of power again that he hasn't displayed in 4 years. I didn't say he won't be above average in power, but I just don't think he'll be top 10.

MG- I was thinking the same thing about Ruf. Why they claimed a guy like Carrera instead of someone like Wells who could basically be Ruf/Young for a month until one of them is called up is beyond me.

Dragging dead weight like Carrera into an AL ballpark is such a freaking waste.

Now Cabrera has elite power. Just muscles a ball over the opposite field wall on a rope. That was impressive.

Probably why he's the reigning MVP and Triple Crown winner.

I don't think many of the more pessimistic regulars think Howard is a carcass. There's just debate over what kind of player he is now that

- he's had trouble staying healthy
- he doesn't walk anymore (not sure why awh glosses over a 40+ drop in OBP)
- his HR/FB was something like 3% a week ago

Even before this week I thought at a minimum Howard would hit something like .315/.440. That's not good but not a carcass either. He has an okay shot to come close to his age 31 numbers: .340/.470 with about 30 HR.

Hey that'd be great. But to pretend like that's some victory for Howard defenders is a bit much. Is completely reasonable to wonder what this guy can do now.

Don't you get it Fata? Howard's been injured for 2 years -- that's the problem. Now that he's 33 and healthy, sporting a sub .300 OBP, we're good to go.

lore, if they had been playing in approximately 25 of the 30 MLB ballparks, Howard would have had 2 more home runs in the Mets series.

Other parks the ball may not have been a HR:

Petco
Fenway (deep RF and RCF)
Safeco
Target
Marlins
PNC

So, including Shitti, there are 23 ballparks where Howard's 2B today would have been a dinger.

Park factor, anyone? Anyone?

And while Howard is 8-22 with 4 XBH recently, he has 0 walks in that same timeframe. Hopefully more walks will come if he can keep up his current production. .280 BA is pretty weak coming with a .299 OBP.

"Now Cabrera has elite power. Just muscles a ball over the opposite field wall on a rope. That was impressive."

r00b: Exactly. That's why I signed him.

"Um, you didn't sign Cabrera, you signed Carrera."

r00b: ...

r00b: I value Production.

Fatti, if pointing out that you don't have enough data to have an informed opinion is being a douchebag, so be it.

Howard has 97 PA this season. Feel free to form an opinion based on that.

"Don't you get it Fata? Howard's been injured for 2 years -- that's the problem. Now that he's 33 and healthy, sporting a sub .300 OBP, we're good to go."


Wow, sophist, I expect more from you.

The discussion is in regard to whether Howard still has "elite" power, not his OBP.

But, whatever.

Howard's last 15 games: .345/.344/.552.

Hot damn.

awh, you take this place too seriously.

Yes awh, when I claimed that I don't think Howard has elite power anymore and cited 2010 and 2011 statistics as my evidence, compiling 1264 PA, that's me using 97 PA to form my opinion, along with the fact that he's in his mid 30s, coming off a serious injury and had a very slow start to the season...

Exactly the same as me basing my opinion on 97 PA.

Jackass.

I'd imagine that his power and OBP are somewhat intertwined as pitchers don't even bother to pitch around him anymore. He doesn't walk because pitchers dont fear him.

The fact that Howard's pitch recognition can be utterly awful hasn't helped on the BB front. When you're guessing you're not liable to Walk very often.

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