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Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Comments

That was classic DPat at the end of the last thread. One poster that will never, and SHOULD never change.

***Bailey (0-3, 5.29) has struggled against the Phillies.

***

Hmm, I thought we had learned our lesson with the Arroyo splits in last night's game thread...guess not.

I'm predicting a game wherein the Phils score enough runs so as they should have won, but don't.

Reds at -150/Phils at +140. I don't have enough faith in KK's changeup tonight to keep Votto, Bruce, and Choo in check and a rain delay could mean we see 2 IP of Valdes or Horst.

'Feels Like a Loss' but I'm not taking -150 either.

MG: Nix, Quintero, Kendrick, & Charlie managing on a rainy evening? I'd gamble.

DPatrone was one of the few posters on here when the Mets got Santana who didn't think it was a big deal and that the Phils had a really good shot to win the NL East in '08.

He has seemed verge on parody level at times but he wasn't always negative. That has only become a constant since RAJ became GM.

Is this a re-post thread?

I can't wait to see a Humberto blast tonight.

RedBurb, here's classic awh in response.

Repost:

DPat, you don't seem to get it so I'll explain:

You referenced a 4 GAME SAMPLE.

I'll give you another Reds comparison:

The 1975 Reds - The Big Red Machine - 108 game winners - WORLD SERIES CHAMPS - had a 6 game stretch from May 11, 1975 to May 16, 1975 where they scored 10 runs - 1.67 RPG.

That is not a typo: 1.67 RPG.

They LOST ALL SIX GAMES.

Point: Even the very best teams have bad stretches, so to try to isolate a 4 games period and use it as an example of how good or bad the team is in an area is completely invalid and meaningless.

But, for some reason you seem to get a thrill by coming on here and declaring yourself the 'Sage of BL'. That is exactly why you posted what you did, and you used a meaningless four game sample to try to bolster your argument.

Was the 1975 Reds offense "struggling more than it should be"?

You bet, but that's baseball. Sh8t happens over a 162 game season, but for someone who claims to be as knowledgeable as you do you display an uncanny ability to miss the forest for the trees.

Look, the 2013 Phillies offense may stink it up and be WORSE than last season. It's entirely possible.

But to try to draw conclusions about this or any team by using a 4 game sample or after 13 games is bordering on insane.

Joe D: Is that like a Dirty Sanchez? Because I can't imagine it being anything positive.

"DPatrone was one of the few posters on here when the Mets got Santana who didn't think it was a big deal and that the Phils had a really good shot to win the NL East in '08.

He has seemed verge on parody level at times but he wasn't always negative. That has only become a constant since RAJ became GM. "


Maybe he's related to Mike Arbuckle.

awh - DPatrone was really negative on the Amaro hiring and I can only remmeber him being positive a few times (first Lee trade, Halladay trade).

awh: "it was posted he a number of times after the Lannan signing that his ERA when not facing the Phillies was 3.80."

You've posted this stat like 20 times now. I'm curious why you think that subtracting out 11.7% of his career starts give you a more valid measure of his ability than simply using his career numbers, including his 16 pathetic starts against the Phillies. If your point is that, now that he doesn't have to face his nemesis anymore, he should be better, that strikes me as an incredibly dubious proposition. Most of the players who wore Phillies uniforms when Lannan was compiling that 3-13 record, are now scattered around the league on other teams. And the ones who remain, like Utley, Rollins, & Howard, are shells of their former selves. Lannan wishes he were so lucky as to face the Phillies 4 times this year.

It's not like the mere sight of the Phillies uniform was the reason for Lannan's problems against us. He stunk against us because we had damn good offenses over most of the period that we faced him. Now those damn good offenses are with other teams, whom Lannan will have to face over the course of the season. And I expect that he will struggle against many of those good offenses as he did against the Phillies when their offense was good.

awh - I don't think anyone is drawing a conclusion based solely on a 4-game sample. They are using a body of evidence (including career numbers, age of the players, recent history, quality of opposition, injuries) that points them in a certain direction and has for some time: This offense is average at best. These same people called for a big offensive upgrade all offseason and didn't get one. That, so far, the offense has basically performed as expected has only reminded them of the earlier expectations. There's nothing "insane" about this reasoning. This isn't the Big Red Machine. I don't think Howard will OPS under .700 all year, but how good is he now? And even if he picks up the slack, is Michael Young going to hit .930+ all year?

MG, DPat has valid points from time-to-time, and he's occasionally insightful.

But 90% of what he posts here is the "same old - same old".

And his visits are almost always around the time the offense has looked bad. there's nary a peep from him when the offense is on a roll.

I think awh is referencing Lannan's starts vs teams not named the Phillies because Phillies fans tend to only look at what pitchers do against the Phillies as a litmus test. So taking in context what he did against the rest of the league is kinda important. Not saying Lannan is a world beater by any stretch of the imagination but having a broader frame of reference instead of "LOL Lannan suckz."

Sophist, if DPat were doing as you describe and bolstering his argument with solid evidence, it wouldn't ring as hollow.

"there's nary a peep from him when the offense is on a roll."

Maybe he had something else going on that day.

While not a fan of the Yankees generally, I must admit this is pretty classy.

@yankees Our thoughts are with Boston. Tonight there will be a special moment of silence & Fenway favorite Sweet Caroline.

"Not saying Lannan is a world beater by any stretch of the imagination..."


I've never said that either.

All I've ever posted is that, based on the evidence, he should be a solid 5TH STARTER.

RedBurb: I don't think that's what he's doing at all. If it were, he could simply post Lannan's career numbers, period. I think he's trying to make the case that, now that he doesn't have to face players wearing Phillies uniforms, Lannan will be a better pitcher than his overall career numbers reflect.

I can't speak for DPat, but it's impossible for me to be anything BUT negative about r00b. I'm sure almost everyone here has worked for or w/ someone who almost invariably makes decisions which are the complete opposite of what you would have done, or tried to do. From my perspective as a fan, that's exactly how r00b has operated, & it's infuriating. He's the epitome of the classic "company man", & has done nothing to show he's capable of making astute personnel decisions. I used to be more irritated by Charlie, because I felt he wasn't making the best use of the talent he had available to him. Charlie's no better a manager now than he ever was, but the talent level has dropped so precipitously as to make his failings increasingly an afterthought. That's difficult to accept of a club w/ the 3rd highest payroll in all of MLB.

OK, we can all stop now. b_a_p's 04.11PM post wins the thread.

bap: don't bother.

"I don't think anyone is drawing a conclusion based solely on a 4-game sample."

Sophist, read his post at the end of the last thread. That's EXACTLY what he was ding.

sorry about that - my "dont bother" was in response to your 4:06 post trying to get logic out of awh - didnt realize you had 3-4 other posts after that.

bap - Ok. I wasn't trying to speak for awh, just trying to interpret what he posted. I did have that conversation with a friend that complained to me about Lannan because he had only seen him pitch against the Phillies (all losses) and concluded that Lannan wasn't a capable 5th starter. Based on his career numbers, he is a decent 5th starter and to expect anything more is kinda ridiculous. That was my point to my friend.

I think it's silly to get obsessive about individual posters, but DPat has been complaining about this offense and the offseason offensive moves for a year. I don't think the last 4 games is what he's basing his problems on. That post you reference doesn't read like an argument along those lines.

I can't speak for DPat, but it's impossible for me to be anything BUT negative about r00b.


Posted by: GTown_Dave | Tuesday, April 16, 2013 at 04:14 PM


Dave, you could have stopped this sentence after the word negative.

Mike G: What? You don't remember the time that one guy did the thing I thought wasn't entirely stupid?

GTown: You mean when the dude ended up with the stuff unexpectedly?

Phillibuster: Yeah, you know. At the place.

I remember it vaguely.

I'm predicting a game wherein the Phils score enough runs so as they should have won, but don't.

Posted by: GTown_Dave


This is a relatively positive post, no? He could have said he predicts the Phillies get shut out by Bailey while the Reds light up KK and the bullpen.

Four of the Phillies 7 losses have been directly attributable to the bullpen, yet a review of the last 3 threads reveals some slobbering posters who think that any game that features fewer than 10 runs being scored is boring. They, of course, blame all losses on the offense.

BTW, if the Phils lost 8-7 because the bullpen blew the game, 5 or 6 of these slobbering idiots would blame the offense for not getting 9 runs.

" And the ones who remain, like Utley, Rollins, & Howard, are shells of their former selves."

bap, but even in some previous years they haven't had success against Lannan.

I guess you think that a pitcher's success against a certain franchise ought to vary over the years as the roster turns over, no?

Intuitively, that sounds correct, but then I surf through b-r.com and find many examples of pitchers who had sustained success against other franchises even as the personnel turned over.

awh: Perhaps it has more to do w/ the specific ballpark &/or pitching mound, then?

Smartest Man in the Room, clout: so you're cool with the Phils scoring 2 woeful runs in 8 innings off Bronson Arroyo? You'd be in the minority on that.

The return of Q.

awh: "Intuitively, that sounds correct, but then I surf through b-r.com and find many examples of pitchers who had sustained success against other franchises even as the personnel turned over."

Keep surfing bud.

The offense will improve. Chooch will make a noticeable difference and it will force a couple issues with players who probably have 10-12 more games (or the amount of time until Chooch returns) to get on track. Revere needs to get on base or get out of the way and hit 8th. Domonic Brown needs to hit or give way to some sort of shared role in LF.

The early trials already tell us the bullpen won't cut it. They're obviously one or two good arms short. But I also don't think the offense is set up for success. They're below average in every category - it feels a lot like how it did early last season.

What happened to that new approach to hitting they were pushing last spring? Nowhere to be found.

Clout, maybe the more appropriate benchmark for your predictably smarmy comment should have been 5. Since you know the Phils have only achieved that number in 4 of 13 contests this year.

And I also don't think people would accuse the games as being boring, as you would like to project onto the great unwashed. I think we all have the right to be annoyed watching a team that is only scoring a miniscule 14% of baserunners. Yeah, frustrated, annoyed, pissed. Not bored.

And then there's the defense. Catching is about to get a vast upgrade, but every corner postion will be below average to lousy for the foreseeable future.

This game is going to be so unbelievably boring when the Phils only score 9 and strand the 10th in the bottom of the 9th inning with 2 out.

I might as well not watch.

"I guess you think that a pitcher's success against a certain franchise ought to vary over the years as the roster turns over, no?"

Here's what I think. I think a large and reliable data pool (i.e., John Lannan's 136 career starts) is comprised of many smaller data pools (i.e., Lannan's career starts against a particular team), none of which is sufficiently large to be reliable in and of itself. Which means that you get a lot of goofy, anomalous, and utterly meaningless numbers if you start looking at a pitcher's numbers against a particular team. I think that goes a long way toward explaining Lannan's struggles against the Phillies. To the extent there's an explanation beyond that, I would look to the fact that the Phillies were one of the best offenses in baseball during most of Lannan's 16 starts. I do NOT believe there's something about seeing an opposing hitter in a Phillies uniform that causes John Lannan to turn into a quivering pile of jelly.

The Mariners now own their own network. If they can do it, then the Phillies need to tell Comcast to go pound sand and start up their own in 2015.

It would allow them to keep revenue in their TV entity and separate from MLB revenue sharing.

JW - Bullpen is a RHP reliever short. If they had someone other than Durbin who was a solid option, it would make a world of difference. Funny how just 1 guy can make a world of difference in the pen. Last year it was Contreras. After he went down at the start of June, the Phils had no answer to replace him all year.

If I wanted to be an optimist though, it is that the Phils are 6-7 after such poor starting pitching & that Hamels/Halladay can only improve and Chooch is back in 2 weeks.

Quintero starts again tonight? Kratz is quickly working himself towards a trip on the 'Escalona Express' back to LV.

Quintero just has to play solid defense the next 2 weeks and I bet he sticks when Chooch comes back.

MG: What do we always say? You want to be .500 in April and start picking up games in May - especially in an improved division. But if you're .500 in May, that's not a death sentence, either. Not with how the Phillies typically finish.

Oh yeah - Contreras' role was never filled, and they suffered for it, also compounding the genuine lack of a Ryan Madson-type guy for the 8th.

What happened to that new approach to hitting they were pushing last spring? Nowhere to be found.

Posted by: J. Weitzel | Tuesday, April 16, 2013 at 04:50 PM

You now, I was always wondering who the heck that was meant to be pointed at. Howard and Utley? All I ever here is to change their approach would take away their power and they would lose their identity as hitters and be more harmful. J-Roll? It took Chollie umpteen years to finally move him out of the top spot. Did they really think they were going to make him an OBP machine. That comment was a joke when it was made and still remains a joke. You don't go out buying a whole bunch of racehorse throughbreds and try turning them into draft horses. Lots of idle chatter by a team that feels trapped by the former success of its core.

Nice post, JW, and I couldn't agree more, especially the points about Revere and Brown.

The bullpen, as most are, was and is a crapshoot. The addition of Adams makes it a bit more stable, but even Cholly has clearly acknowledged that those who are worth a damn have their roles (Adams, Paps, Bastardo and even Aumont to an extent). It's basically screaming to the world that the likes of Horst, Valdes, Durbin, et al, are nothing more than mop up guys in that Cholly doesn't want to use them in a game that is yet to be decided (close either way in the waning innings). This just SCREAMS for Cholly to mismanage these guys. Without an offense that's going to give the luxury of a 4-5 run cushion many games, it puts our beloved manager in a position to use the guys who can keep it close, or roll the dice on the guys who even he really doesn't want out there (to prevent overuse of the "good" ones, etc.).

I see the bullpen shortage as a huge pressing issue right now. Offenses tend to ebb and flow over the season, so we'll likely see improvement. While bullpens do too, to some extent, these aren't exactly the guys you'd ever expect to go through a legitimate "lock down" phase for even a few games.

Really, the big issue with the offense is that the clean-up man has 1 home run and 5 RBIs on the season. You can't dance around that fact.

Lorecore: I'm pretty sure Comcast is still minority owner of the Phillies. I could see the decision to form their own network causing some friction there.

"If they can do it, then the Phillies need to tell Comcast to go pound sand and start up their own in 2015."

If they keep TMac on board, this would be a more egregious offense than anything RAJ could even dream up.

I fear Carlos Ruiz may have to abuse some Doan's Pills with all the expectations piling up on his back. I agree he will be a (probable) improvement over Kratz, but the thought that he will automatically return to form as a middle-of-the-order bat may prove unrealistic.

I will be happy with a .750 OPS from Chooch, but will that change the tone of the offense?

I do share guarded optimism that he can prop the pitching staff a little more upright....

Oh hell, who am I kidding. Sure I'm in. Chooch = Playoffs

Chooch is an All-Star level receiver and a great hitting catcher. Erik Kratz and Humberto Quintero are MLB back-ups on their very best day.

Pencilling Chooch in for the All Star team? Ok then. My concerns are unwarranted.

"Chooch is an All-Star level receiver and a great hitting catcher. Erik Kratz and Humberto Quintero are MLB back-ups on their very best day."

Which begs the "elephant in the room" question - What exactly is Ryan Howard, that clean-up man that has 1 home run and 5 RBIs on the season???

Is this one of his patented early season slumps, or is this his version of the "take a guess what I can truly bring to the table at this stage of my career" chapter, a la Doc Halladay?

Like I noted, offenses ebb and flow throughout the very long season. Here's hoping that there are some considerable peaks to accompany Howard's current valley, but I'm not even sure what kind of expectations I have for the guy anymore...

Mick: It's not as simple as that. Quintero and Kratz are 8 hitters. Ruiz isn't - he can hit anywhere from 5-7. He's a superb handler of the staff. And he's a reining All-Star. You're selling him short.

WP: Howard is a notoriously slow starter - He could look out of sorts until the All-Star break.

What happened to that new approach to hitting they were pushing last spring? Nowhere to be found ...

Really, the big issue with the offense is that the clean-up man has 1 home run and 5 RBIs on the season. You can't dance around that fact.

There's also the fact that the leadoff guy is batting all of .222/.276/.222, & Savior Brown has been less valuable than J-Roll, who is batting a torrid .240/.296/.400 thus far.

So far as Howard goes, I'm sure his utter failure to make any adjustments whatsoever is a problem that the hiring three or four more hitting coaches would definitely solve.

JW: "The early trials already tell us the bullpen won't cut it."

Actually JW, I thinkit's a tale of two bullpens: the middle relief and the back end. the back end - Pap, Adams, Bastardo - have been fine. It's the other guys who have performed poorly. Aumont had one bad outing, but Durbin, Valdez and Horst have been mediocre at best.

Those are the guys who better get it in gear or they'll be passing Stutes, DeFratus or Morgan on the PA Turnpike on their way back up to LV.

Five-4-One: I said nothing about the offense being any good. It stinks, so far. My point is that folks like you don't say peep about anything BUT the offense even as the bullpen actively blows leads. And, as JW correctly notes, the offense has a proven track record and is likely to get better. Can you say the same about the bullpen outside of Papelbon and Adams?

... folks like you don't say peep about anything BUT the offense even as the bullpen actively blows leads.

Hey clout, exactly how many leads has the bullpen blown this season?

BAP is absolutely right about Lannan. You know which teams Lannan has struggled mightily against in his career? Good ones. Teams that score a lot of runs. Like most average pitchers, he's good against below average teams and best against the worst; likewise, he's worse against above average teams and at his worst against the best lineups. The Phillies, thru 2011, were one of those teams.

My point, which prompted awh's post, is that it seems that a lot of folks expect John Lannan to careen back to earth and return to the AAAA guy that he is. And the reason I think Phillies fans believe this is their exposure to Lannan has mostly been on the side of watching him get shelled.

But who cares. If we're sitting here debating whether or not this is John Lannan's career year we've got a lot of other problems on our hands, least of which is too much time.

clout: I think you can say that Bastardo, Adams and Paps are all above-average to elite relievers. How many bullpens really have more than 3 guys like that? Generally, you fill in a specialist or two, a long man, and, if your lucky, a 4th high upside guy. I think that's basically what we have and what you can expect from this pen. It's certainly enough to compete with.

Matt Gelb: "Tarp coming onto the field in Cincinnati. Probable delayed start to this one, folks."

All the more time for clout to calculate the sure-to-be-immense number of bullpen-blown Phillies leads.

GTown: The bullpen has allowed the winning runs in 4 of the 7 losses, but, you're right, some of those were tie games and in others the bullpen made the opposing team's lead greater while the Phils scored scored enough runs to win had the bullpen not allowed runs.

"when people start coming back were going to have to make some changes on our roster."

My changes:
Horst to AAA
Diekman or Defratus to MLB
Ruiz to MLB
Humberto to AAA if he passes through waivers.
Delmon Yong to MLB
Cararra to AAA, this is an easy answer since we'd lose both JMJ and Nix if we DFA'ed them (not that its a huge loss)

sneed: Bastardo was an elite reliever last season?

"Diekman or Defratus to MLB."

Diekman and DeFratus should not be lumped together. One is a legitimate prospect and is pitching well yet again. The other is organizational filler who has never been able to throw strikes and has already walked 7 batters in 3 innings at AAA this year.

Bastardo hasn't been given the chance to make his typical game killing pitches yet. Or in a glass half full word we have good Bastardo back and we should use him.

BAP is correct on Diekman/DeFratus.

GTown: Another way to look at it is effectiveness. The bullpen has allowed 35 hits and 18 walks in 34 innings.

How would you characterize that record?

JW: I wasn't sure what that "new approach" ever really meant. Sometimes Amaro talked about it meaning being more "aggressive," sometimes I heard him say he wanted more walks, sometimes I heard him say he wanted less strikeouts and more contact.

None of those things are compatible with each other, though. If you want walks and power, you're going to have to live with less contact and more strikeouts. It worked well for the Phillies back in the 2005-2009 days. Now, we get weak ground balls every AB. But at least we don't strike out as much!

clout: Fair enough. Only one blown lead that I recall, but several tie games have gotten away in relief. To his credit, Charlie has stopped going directly to Durbin & Valdes, which is bound to help. I tend to believe last night had a shot at turning out differently if he hadn't waffled on the availability of Adams, however.

clout: In 2011 he was, the 2nd half of the 2012 he was, and he's been very strong so far this season. 156 K in his last 110 IP, which puts him 6th among relievers in that time frame. He's tied for 37th in WAR since 2011.

I said above-average to elite, meaning somewhere in that range. I would certainly call him above-average, and I think his upside is closer, but not quite elite.

Clout: Sneed said above-average or elite. I assume elite was in reference to Paps and maybe Adams, while above-average was for Bastardo, but I wouldn't presume to speak for him.

I will say that in his career as reliever, Bastardo gives up a .592 OPS to opposing hitters, has a WHIP of 1.12 (that's better than Ryan Madson), strikes out 3 hitters for every 1 he walks, and last year had the third highest strikeout rate in baseball behind a couple guys named Kimbrel and Chapman.

So yes, no matter what else you might say about him, he's an above-average reliever. It's amazing to me that people still think he's not.

GTown: I don't think Adams would have been available after one or two batters. Maybe he gets in before the double, but that would have been tight (though obviously preferable).

The IBB was going to happen either way once they got to that point, though, so might as well maximize warmup time.

Jack: I think Rube was saying that the team needs to aggressively walk more while also aggressively striking out less and making more contact.

Weitzel - Nice to see you commenting back on the threads. I always appreciated your objectively and viewpoint. Ditto some of the long commentators her including Sophist and clout (who has been absolute a lot more lately).

Jack: My question was about last season. Was Bastardo an elite reliever last season?

clout: No, but I never explicitly said he was elite.

Was he above-average in and overall since 2011?

"Ditto some of the long commentators her including Sophist and clout (who has been absolute a lot more lately)."

I'm thinking you meant to write "absent." clout has been absolute since Day-1.

Gtown - Who called Brown the Savoir? I don't think anyone thought Brown was going to be a savoir for this team. I think most just want him to have a full season in the bigs to see if he can play every day at that level.

So, I'm encouraged by something. By what, you ask? Well, allow me to elaborate:

It has been shown that swing rates are the first to normalize within a season, and that, even with what seems like small sample sizes, swing rates can be windows into how a player will perform for the upcoming season. And there is a player on the Phillies team who has some early season encouraging swing rate trends that might project favorable for the remainder of his season. That player: Michael Young. To the numbers!

Swing %: 41.5
This is the lowest Swing% of his career, by a good deal. His career rate is 47.9%, and last year, in easily the worst year of his career, it was 51.2%. Staying far away from anything he did last year is a victory in an of itself, but it could also lead to much improved performance, overall.

O-Swing%: 25.3%
Again, the lowest number of his career rate, which is 28.8%, and it was all the way up at 32.5%, which is a rate even most prodigious power hitters can't survive. Keeping his swing rate down, and his swing rate at balls down, will likely lead to more walks, and less weak contact. Or so is the hope.

O-Contact%: 56.0%
Again, the lowest of his career rate, which is 70.8%. It goes without saying, but swinging at balls rarely produces hits, so missing those that you do swing at is a good thing, in my book.

His Contact% has dipped a bit this year, but his Z-Contact% is right in line with his career numbers, so his Contact% dropping has entirely to do with his missing the non-strikes he's swinging at.

Now obviously, we're dealing with just 50 PA here, and he could easily revert back to the same approach he had last year, but again, these stats do tend to normalize quickly, and if his approach has actually changed, there's reason to expect him to have a season more in line with 2009-2011 numbers.

Here's hoping.

I'm again assuming that this is the Game Thread, complete with lack of "jump to latest comments" link?

Though, not gonna lie, even if it is, we need the Bruntlett rain delay graphic as part of tonight's proceedings.

I didn't hear what they said on the broadcast, but how long do they expect the delay to last tonight? Is there a chance the game doesn't get played tonight?

Gelb: "Delayed start. Next update coming 7:45 p.m."

Zolecki: "Phillies-Reds game is delayed because of rain. Don't have an estimated start time. I will let you know when I know."

I thought I heard 815. But don't quote me on that.

If you drag this link into your browser's bookmarks, it will always give you a link to the last page of comments from any BL post page.

Jump To BL Newest Comments

(You need to be on a post page for it to work)

(pretty sure this works. test it on a post with multiple pages like this one)

(If it doesn't work for you, I apologize. I tried)

"I thought I heard 815. But don't quote me on that."

Too late.

Mick O, that solution works. Thanks!

RedBurb should have allowed himself to be quoted. First pitch sched. for 8.15PM

works for me too. thanks Mick-O.

Gelb: "... and they're covering the field again. Scratch 8:15."

Oh well.

Zolecki: "First pitch now scheduled for 8:30 p.m."

I know this has nothing to do with the game or the current topic, but since we are in a rain delay, I thought I'd ask anyway. Why is it that guys who make millions of dollars a year still insist on driving with a blood alcohol level of 0.22 instead of hiring a car service? I just don't get it.

Mike G, I have a hard time wrapping my brain around why anyone would ever drive drunk, rich or poor.

reds fans get to enjoy that wet dog smell for 4+ hours.

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