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Tuesday, April 30, 2013

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Bet Doc's release point has risen with each start

... after these two games come four at home with the woeful Marlins, who just placed Giancarlo Stanton on the DL Tuesday.

On one hand I'm thrilled that Stanton is scheduled to miss another series vs. the Phillies. On the other hand I'm kind of disappointed, because I've been very curious to see if they'd actually give him anything to hit.

In response to a point raised in the last thread:

Well I decided to do the tedious work of looking over the past ten years and seeing who would get the second wild card and then went and looked at their April record:

2012: AL: Baltimore 14-9
NL: St. Louis 14-8

2011: AL: Boston 11-15
NL: Atlanta 13-15

2010: AL: Boston 11-12
NL: San Diego 15-8

2009: AL: Texas 10-11
NL: San Francisco 10-10

2008: AL: New York 14-15
NL: New York 14-12

2007: AL: Detroit/Seattle 14-11/10-10
NL: San Diego 13-13

2006: AL: Los Angeles 12-13
NL: Philadelphia 10-14

2005: AL: Cleveland 9-14
NL: Philadelphia 10-14

2004: AL: Oakland 11-12
NL: San Francisco 10-14

2003: AL: Seattle 17-10
NL: Houston 11-15

I used Wikipedia to quickly look at final records and find the second wild card and then used the ESPN website to look at records at the end of April:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings

So it seems you can loose 15 games in April and still get the wild card under the new system but I would say that it's not recommended.

Stanton must be miserable, and I wouldn't blame him in the least for being so. He's in an awful professional situation right now. On a crappy team that's going less than nowhere, and by virtue of how he'll be pitched all year and his current injury, his market value may be dwindling.

Bet Doc's release point has risen with each start

And Mrs. Halladay is the most pleased of all!

Things I like: beer and baseball

Things I dislike: rain and taxes

Things I despise: AUTOPLAY VIDEOS AT WORK

addendum: I also dislike Jack

dlhunter: me too, luckily I had my sound off.

Nice work, UDPhill

Video re-starts everytime I refresh to see new comments or post something myself...

Who will DH?

Another vote against the auto-play.

Autoplay videos are the black plague of this already dystopic medieval Europe of a blog.

Even better, I bet this becomes the game chat. Auto-play included.

Looks like Delmon's headed to Cleveland. I imagine he'll be DHing.

Jim Salisbury: "I am hearing that Delmon Young is on his way to Cleveland. Don't think he is headed to Rock and Roll Hall of Fame."

SO IT BEGINS

Thanks for fixing the autoplay, blog angel.

Rollins
Utley
Young
Howard
Young
Ruiz
Brown
Mayberry
Revere

Maybe?

better chance to win:
Delmon DH, Young 3B
or
Galvis 3B, Young DH?

I'm going with the former, I guess.

If they're going to both be on the team, we'll have to start using DYoung and MYoung.

"Sophist: Bet Doc's release point has risen with each start"

Looks to be true:

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/bucket/player_cards/card_imgs/136880.z0.S.png

Its not the easiest, but you can see in 2013 that all of the colors are drifting up from the first start(s).

And I mean, if you can't get excited about DYoung's career .275/.307/.401 line against RHP, then you don't have a pulse.

Fata: It's better than Galvis's line of .222/.256/.353. . . baby steps.

Heres better links/images:

Doc first start:

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/release.php-pitchSel=136880&game=gid_2013_04_03_phimlb_atlmlb_1&batterX=&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=.gif

Doc's last start:

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/release.php-pitchSel=136880&game=gid_2013_04_24_pitmlb_phimlb_1&batterX=&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=.gif

Looks to be a about a 4 inch difference on average. Same horizontal release though...so its not like he was breaking down to the side more or anything in his first start, just kind of short arming it.

Maybe DYoung will be our 2013 Vernon Wells?

Here we go. The start of the much anticipated Delmon Young era.

I stand by my prediction that he doesn't start more than 20 games in the OF.

Iceman, I predict that those 20 starts will be 20 starts too many.

"Seidman: McAllister walked five batters his last time out but doesn't typically struggle with control. He comes right at hitters with a 92-94 mph fastball that he's thrown 73% of the time this season. He also has a slider that comes in at about 78"

Where did you get this information - its too specific to be making up - but I am 100% its incorrect.

I've watched McAllister pitch and he is a classic FB/power curve pitcher. I know his scouting report all too well when annoying yankee fan friends thought he was going to be great, and they all raved about his 12-6 hammer.

Hey, with the DH, if he's healthy we might finally get to see Revere bat 9th.

before dh phils whines about me "attacking" the non-jw's - let me just clarify that i'm simply asking a serious question if my opinions about mcallistera are wrong/outdated.

The Phils just keep getting youngier and youngier.

UDPhils: Interesting info and thanks for the research. Maybe my April Apocalypse theory has some salvation in 2013 with the 2nd WC.

If Delmon young gives us the "diamond in the rough" that we got with Pierre, the Yankee's are getting with Wells or whatever it'll be nice. Young has alot to prove and I'm here hoping he does.

Carrera officially DFA'd. Delmon Young, here he comes.

Carrera just had that one hit with the team, right? That dive-into-first single? That, and those outfield errors.

So my question is, will Quintero and Carrera both end up in Toronto (for approximately 3 hours), and if so, will they have anything to talk about on the flight?

I wonder what Delmon is weighing in at.

D. Young has been activated and Carrera is designated for assignment. Prepare your slings and arrows BL

So, DYoung made $250,000 today for being activated. Not bad for a day's "work".

I wanted them to take the bubble wrap off Delmon when he gets to play the field so we get the true Delmon experience. This is slightly disappointing.

So does he start or do they work him in off the bench?

I find it hard to believe that Carrera has been DFA'd after clout has consistently told us that he could be an impact player for this team. Unsurprising that yet another prediction from one of the least knowledgeable posters here fails to come to fruition.

Unfortunately, now we can't return Delmon if we decide later we don't want him. He's no longer NIB, and we can't prove he's mint condition if the seal's broken.

Anyone have saran wrap and a hair dryer? Just in case?

I would assume he will DH, no?

Ruf would've been a better option to DH, considering he actually has options left and has started to hit the past week or so.

Maybe they don't want to mess with Ruf? Who knows? They are probably excited for the Delmon Young era to begin. I mean, who isn't?

MLB network radio "power alley" talking Delmon and how far back the FO went in reviewing his scouting report.

Yeah, DYoung will DH tonight. He'll still commit an error, though.

Phils -110 tonight on the road, o/u 8. UNDER looks like a good play to me.

Also, after winning last night, the Astros are again whopping dogs, +235 - I wonder whoever had the balls to bet them last night will let it ride. Would turn 1 unit into almost 12 in just two days.

Tom Verducci today on the Phillies:

What you're looking at is a proud but flawed team, trying desperately to squeeze one more October out of the Howard-Utley-Three Aces investment. At this point the Phillies have no choice but to ride out this roster. The offense, despite the weekend in New York, is likely to continue to be sporadic; the Phillies rank 13th in walks and 12th in on-base percentage. Delmon Young, a notorious hacker, isn't likely to help much -- and that's assuming he can play a new position, rightfield, decently enough to stay in the lineup.

The best the Phillies can hope for is that Brown is the next Josh Roddick or Chris Davis -- a power guy with a minor league pedigree who breaks out in the bigs in his mid-20s -- that the offense climbs at least to a middle-of-the-pack run-scoring level, and that Hamels, Lee and Halladay come close to the 50 wins and 682 1/3 innings they gave Philadelphia in 2011, when the Phillies won a franchise-record 102 games.

The truth is, this is a team on the brink of recovery or regression, and it's too soon to know which direction it is headed. It will take three months, not three days, to know which path they follow. Meanwhile, keep this in mind: The Phillies haven't been the Phillies of annual excellence for an extended stretch. Since Sept. 10, 2011, and including a bad first-round playoff loss that year to a St. Louis team that won a dozen fewer games than Philadelphia, the Phillies are 103-110 (.484). That's a worse record in that time than that of the Pirates (100-105, .488). Philadelphia, despite all that money invested in pitching, is no longer a sure thing.

Well, that's a sad little piece, TTI - - and I agree with Verducci.

Damn that last line is really humbling.

So basically Verducci is saying you need to wait add see. I said it that in under a dozen words.

"including a bad first-round playoff loss that year to a St. Louis team that won a dozen fewer games than Philadelphia"

It's almost as if a short series can be a crapshoot.

MG, he said a little more than that, but yeah, sure.

What's with the arbitrary date of Sept 10, 2011? Just to show the Pirates have a better record than the Phillies since then? That's dumb.

Fat - No he didn't. He said the Phils have been an average team that is basically .500 since the '11 season.

They are 10th in RS in the NL and figure to be around an average team offensively. Maybe they do finish 12th or 13th in RS. If they do, it doesn't matter what pitching they get because they won't even win 85 games if that is the case.

Slightly misleading too, that his starting point in 2011 is shortly before the post-clinch 8 game losing streak.

We know they're about a .500 team since last year, and including the start to this year.

Still think if enough breaks right they can slip into the playoffs with one of the wildcards in 2013. At that point who knows.

b-ref says the phillies are 14th in the league in walks (Cubs), not 13th.

Lowest walks per game in the majors:

Cubs: 2.16
Whitesox: 2.25
Phillies: 2.31
Brewers: 2.62
Royals: 2.74

Michael Young leads the team in walks.

Structurally the last paragraph by Verducci ends better with his first sentence.

MG: He says way more than just wait and see. He is pointing out flaws with the team and the best case scenario but never shuts the door on the best case scenario happening- among other things.

MG, he pointed out that they're near the bottom of the NL in walks and on-base percentage, which is why we a middle-of-the-road offense is their ceiling, not their expected position, which is exactly what he said "best the Phillies can hope for...is that the offense climbs at least to a middle-of-the-pack..."

He pointed out that Domonic Brown has pretty much been a failure at the ML level so far, and we are still just hoping on him realizing his potential.

But he pointed out that as long as Hamels, Lee and Halladay can remain top flight starters, there's a chance that they can keep the team contenders despite the obvious limitations of the offense.

A bit more than "wait and see".

I thought the saddest part was the characterization of our team as desperate:

"proud but flawed team, trying desperately to squeeze one more October out of the Howard-Utley-Three Aces investment."

So that's basically what almost everyone here has been saying since the offseason?

Walks aren't important. All they do is get you on base and getting on base gives you the ability to score.

Has anyone else had a good laugh at the success of Yuniesky Betancourt to start the year? This guy has landed on a new form of HGH huh?

"he pointed out that they're near the bottom of the NL in walks and on-base percentage"

RAJ printed that part out and put and framed it in his office

In an article about Hamilton's swing-happy ways, Delmon Young gets mentioned. Not flattering to say the least:

"The only guy who has swung the bat more often than Hamilton is Delmon Young, but 46.1% of the pitches Young has been thrown have been in the strike zone. Hamilton is pitched around more than any other hitter in the game, and yet he swings more often anyone, with the exception of one replacement level scrub."

Ouch.

I'm as opposed to the DY experiment as anyone.

I'm as opposed to the idea of the DH as anyone.

Both of those statements said, if we have to use a DH, by definition someone to only hit and not play the field, Delmon Young is a better candidate than any of the current bench options (outside of Nix - but Cholly has him pigeon-holed as a PH only for some reason, al a Ross Gload). That's sad.

try that again...

RAJ printed that part out and framed it in his office

"The only guy who has swung the bat more often than Hamilton is Delmon Young, but 46.1% of the pitches Young has been thrown have been in the strike zone."

So, we have a poor man's Hunter Pence? Can't wait!

Man, this guy is railing on current Phillies players:

"Well, it is broke(n), but most importantly, this isn't the approach that made Josh Hamilton an elite Major League player. This approach is new, and if he doesn't make some changes in a hurry, he's on his way to becoming the new Ryan Howard."

Double ouch.

At least Nix has some actual pop. For some reason Charlie thought Ross Gload could actually drive the ball.

"this guy" is Dave Cameron of course.

Delmon Young being the "replacement level scrub", I take it, Fata?

Is it just me, or do the Phillies have a thing for replacement level scrubs? Except we don't usually hire them to be our starters.

He'd better get some hits at key moments. We're all predisposed to loathe.

lorecore, yep. I rarely read the author's name, to be honest.

oops - *loathe him*

Get Delmon out of here.

Oooo, lorecore's still hurtin'

Sorry, bud, your 15 losses post still brands you a moron.

DH tonight will put a delay on Doc's "K every PA" streak. Has anyone confirmed what the record is?

Clout: are you going to add something constructive our just lurk around and call people names?

fingers are crossed that Delmon Young lives up to his prospect status this year.

Clout: are you going to add something constructive our just lurk around and call people names?

Posted by: jbird | Tuesday, April 30, 2013 at 02:49 PM

I think we all know the answer to that.

We need a "Young" haiku from Andy.

Michael Young leads the team in walks.

Has a sadder sentence ever been posted on the internets?

I can't find the answer about K every PA, but i saw this:

In the last 10 years, Wes Helms struck out in every PA he had in a game 109 times, the most of any player.

If Young is the DH, how long is it before they stick him out in RF after the CLE series?

Or, is there some roster move they can make (other than the DL) by which they can send him back to LV until May 27th when they visit Boston? :)

Just don't want to see this guy n RF.

"If Young is the DH, how long is it before they stick him out in RF after the CLE series?"

Thursday against the Marlins

Edmundo: To be fair, he's only 4-5 walks shy of the top 10 in the MLB.

For lorecore from Gelb:

"These days, Halladay is most perturbed by his hitting. He volunteered for daily batting cage sessions with assistant hitting coach Wally Joyner. Halladay is 0 for 11 with 11 strikeouts. The major-league record for consecutive at-bats with a strikeout is believed to be 18. (A designated hitter in Tuesday's game at Cleveland will prevent Halladay from hitting.)"

redburb - "believed to be 18", hah a very odd phrase in today's data-overload world.

When Delmon was acquired, something like the large majority of posters here said "oh, no, this is terrible--he's a bad player, and he's likely to be miscast as a starting player." This group included me.

Others very reasonably said "now wait a minute. It's not necessarily terrible. He can still hit lefty pitching, so if he's used properly (only against lefties, primarily as DH or a pinch-hitter if possible), he could be a decent bench player."

Well, time now to see how they use him. If he starts against RHP, or starts in RF a lot, then the first group's concerns will unfortunately be confirmed. If he's used properly, then maybe he can help out.

awh, not sure how much is lip service, but the reason there was speculation that Young would NOT be called up to DH for this series was that the FO was adamant that they weren't calling him up until it was a permanent move and that he'd play RF.

They actually called out this series specifically as being one he not be called up for, since he wouldn't get reps in RF.

Sad to say, but if what the FO has said is right, I think we have our new starting Right Fielder...

Most Career Golden Sombrero's (0-4, 4K)

Bo Jackson: 13
Dick Allen: 11
Andres Galaragga: 10
Adam Dunn: 10

Excited for the "Mayberry as defensive caddy/pinch runner" phase of the season.

Most Career 4 K Games

Reggie Jackson: 23
Ryan Howard: 20
Jim Thome: 20
Bo Jackson: 19

Verduci statement pretty much every fan even the casual fans already has that figured out.

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