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Monday, April 08, 2013


clout - Yeah. I am curious to see tomorrow on Brooks but I bet Halladay's arm slot was even a tad lower at times tonight than his previous start.

Glad the fans generally cheered Halladay when he was lifted in the 5th. Philly fans generally do get cr@pped upon nationally but that was a classy thing to do. Not that it will make any national headlines though.

If we are going back in time to supplement our rotation , I would rather get Moyer than Roy O.

RE: Halladay

Either he ditches the Cutter & works to reestablish himself as a Fastball/Change-Up pitcher, or he's done. Considering he's having trouble locating everything, I'm leaning strongly toward the latter. Tonight was as depressing a display as I've seen in quite awhile.

RE: Oswalt

I don't think Oswalt has anything left, & even if he does, why bother? It's not like the Phillies are an arm away from being competitive. People need to begin embracing the idea that this very well might be a bad baseball team.

Oswalt headed for Philly in his tractor.

Gonna get this turned and since we can't do anything else about tonight 2moro is a perfect day to start #winbabywin

From last thread...

On Halladay: Tonight was the first chance I have had in a while to see him pitch. I can barely believe it is the same guy. The old Halladay looked relaxed, free and easy throwing. This guy tonight was trying to over-throw every pitch, and thereby having control issues.

Halladay may never get his 200th win. If RAJ can shake loose a better option, Doc gets tossed on the DL for a while. If he can't turn things around when he comes back, he may finish the season on the DL. Then next season who signs him pitching like this? He may get an invite, but likely passed by. Within a year from now he could be out of baseball. That is a very real possibility.

Hopefully Lee gives them a solid start tomorrow night (say 7 and 3) and the Phils hit Gee. The Phils have hit Gee really hard at CBP in 3 career starts and he's another Mets' starter that generally sucks outside of CitiField.

Oddly enough there are a couple of Mets' hitters with pretty good career numbers vs Lee including Buck (14-42, .292 with 3 HRs), Byrd (7-21), Murphy (6-19), and Tejada (6-13).

Sad, but I couldn't help but laugh: "If you've ever wanted to throw like Roy Halladay ... now is your chance."

Rob Maaddi tweet -

Roy Halladay on problems: "95 percent is mental. It's simplifying & getting back to basics & not trying to force things.

Roy Halladay said his son texted him to say his dad was still his hero. Roy said it meant a lot to him. Rare to see emotional side to Roy.

That is the question with Halladay:

- Is he lowering his arm angle to try to compensate for his declining velocity even though he is generally healthy?

- Is he pitching hurt to some degree and trying to find an arm angle that minimizes his pain yet gives him a velocity he finds acceptable?

I say 'Scenario 2' especially since he didn't look like this his first 3 outings in spring training. The Halladay who pitched in the Nats game early spring training doesn't remotely resemble this guy on the mound tonight who didn't have feel for a single pitch and had no command/consistency with his cutter.

As unappealing at this might sound generally, Halladay could be a rich man's Kyle Kendrick if he went heavy with his sinker and mixed in his change/curve.

An underrated difference in pre-2012 Halladay and post-2012 Halladay is the ineffectiveness of his curve. Not only can he not spot it where he wants to, but hitters are sitting on it with two strikes and fouling it off consistently. He gets ahead of hitters, then foul, foul, pitch in the dirt, foul, foul, foul. His refusal to pound the strike zone with his sinker, keeping hitters honest, is a big cause of his problems because it renders an otherwise plus pitch ineffective.

He has to either accept the fact that his cutter is gone, or strictly work on it in the bullpen until it comes back. If he doesn't, he isn't an MLB-caliber pitcher. He has to be willing to pound the zone with his sinker and accept getting it hit every once in a while. Murphy mentioned this in a tweet- he's got a lot of movement on it. It's better than anything Kendrick has. And he's got two off-speed pitches to complement it.

I mean, I understand that it's not ideal to concede that he won't be Doc again. But he's an AAA pitcher up there trying to force a cutter that won't cut. He has the arsenal to be better than that. It's frustrating to watch him refuse to accept it.

It really sucks. Roy is probably the classiest and most professional athlete to come through Philadelphia and he is a shell of himself.

That is the biggest crime

"Glad the fans generally cheered Halladay when he was lifted in the 5th. Philly fans generally do get cr@pped upon nationally but that was a classy thing to do. Not that it will make any national headlines though."

MG- Whatever is wrong with Doc, injury,age, mechanics- whatever; you can be sure it's not lack of effort.
I think that's why there were few boos.


Right and right. Just what they need, another 35 year old pitcher with nothing left in the tank. Too bad Doc couldn't get a ring here - class act. Can't help but thinking that we are entering 'Phillies Winter'. How many years it will last hard to say, but with a mediocre farm and no strong organizational history of competitiveness...

Howard was booed heartily in the 6th, & he deserved it. His approach has been putrid.

Iceman - 100% completely agree. I don't know though if Halladay can even be a 'rich's man KK' with a sinker/changeup/curve and occasional 4-seamer but trying to get 70-80% of something is better than nothing.

Just a question of whether Halladay is willing to make that mental adjustment or not. I thought Halladay would be willing to make adjustments without much hesitation as long as it worked but I think TTI was right.

More and more Halladay still sounds like he is in the 'denial' phase including the quote tonight about the being mental and insisting he was healthy yet again. Until Halladay is willing to accept he has physical limitations which are going to prevent him for being anywhere close to what the old Halladay was, he won't make it as a starter.

Moot point if he isn't healthy though.

Roy Halladay said his son texted him to say his dad was still his hero. Roy said it meant a lot to him. Rare to see emotional side to Roy.

Posted by: EDGE

Love this!

Louisville one of the better college teams I've seen in a while. Don't like the coach though.

"Louisville one of the better college teams I've seen in a while. Don't like the coach though."

I haven't seen a college hoops team that good since . . . er . . . um . . . oh, right . . . last year's Kentucky team.

Lol on that 3rd strike call, what was Marty Foster looking at.

I picked Louisville to win it all, & that's about the only thing I picked correctly. I don't even know why I bother filling out a bracket.

Even Chad Durbin might be a passable major league pitcher if he got calls like that one.

Was that Enrico Palazzo behind home plate?

Whatever the question is, the answer is not Roy Oswalt!

At least this is the final year of Doc's contract.

And Howard's deal is up soon too, right?

Ryno is going to have a fun time managing this team soon.

Oswalt? I was hoping we could bring Shane Rawley back instead. Can't ever have enough crafty lefties.

Is that old JW "Panic" button still hanging around the BL files?

Tommy j and Cody both homers last night. And Cesar and darrin each had 2 hits. Might be seeing these guys sooner rather than later. Is that a good thing? No because season could be ova.

At this point, Oswalt may have more left in the tank than Halladay, but who the hell knows.

I think the idea that this is all mental is pure nonsense. You don't go from being the most dominant starter in baseball to an Adam Eaton impersonator after over a decade in the game because you're feeling a little depressed.

I often wonder how the Phillies future would have been different had Amaro stuck with some of his non-Rule 5 reclamation projects. It would've been interesting to see this club with Moss platooning with Mayberry, Vogelsong in the rotation and Grilli closing, and the Papelbon/Nix/Delmon Young money spent elsewhere.

But at least he had the foresight to hang on to Herndon and the one and only Mr. Michael Martinez.

Two years ago Kyle Kendrick aspired to be Roy Halladay. Today, Roy Halladay aspires to be Kyle Kendrick.

And it's a damn shame, but the gods of baseball both giveth and taketh away.

Will all the young arms they have are sure better then those guys. That's what rube feeds us.

Like I said last night, if Doc is healthy, and it's simply a matter or "relearning" how to pitch, then he needs to accept an assignment to minors, where he can work on his stuff, because this team, its bullpen and its record, cannot survive another 3-4 IP/5+ ER performance. Simply can't.

If he's hurt, they need to DL him, because he obviously can't pitch through the pain.

Remember when the Phils would go several weeks without losing a series?

Sutcliffe on Baseball Tonight last night said he thought Halladay was under striding on his delivery and that is hurting his velocity and control. Another in a long line of theories.

It wouldn't surprise me that Halladay is stubbornly refusing to change his approach. It is something all athletes have to deal with- the idea of getting old and having reduced capabilities. Favre had it, Jordan had it. At some point Halladay needs to look at himself in the mirror and admit that the ways of the past don't work anymore and if he wants to help this team he needs to adjust. I think he will but he needs to do it soon.

Lastly, no harm in calling up Oswalt and seeing what he has in the tank.

Also, I know it's only two starts worth of data, but according to Fangraphs, both Roy Halladay's cutter and his 2-seamer have gotten crushed this year.

Pretty impossible to be an effective major league starter without ANY fastball.

Curveball and changeup seem to be doing well, but the fastballs are getting him killed.

"Was that Enrico Palazzo behind home plate?"


I'm still not worried about this team. Harvey is a great young pitcher against whom teams have struggled and will continue to struggle. The Phils got beat by a good pitcher. It happens. Last night's game doesn't worry me. It's the other losses this year that are troublesome.

I'm not concerned about Howard, but he's starting to piss me off. His great approach at the plate in ST and the first few games is gone. He did square up a few (foul) balls last night, so...I guess that's a positive. Perhaps he's pressing. Who knows?

Things will turn around.

It's tough watching Halladay. But watch him we will until the Phillies admit he's hurt and he admits he's hurt and by then the season will be over. If it's not already.

What's more worrisome is that Hamels has lost all command and control of his pitches. Two starts is not panic time for him, but what is up there? Halladay is as good as gone already. Hamels is here for a long time, and I don't think anyone anticipated what's going on with him now. I don't think I've ever seen him unable to locate this badly.

It was brutal to see this team in person. Also, that "strike" in the Rays game was the worst call I have ever seen in my life.

From last thread:
Serious Ruben question. Has he had a single player that he acquired over perform? Put another way, has he discovered any talent?
For example Gillick brought in Werth and Dobbs and to a lesser extant Romero. Has Ruben only acquired known entities and watched them age?

Posted by: gobaystars! | Monday, April 08, 2013 at 10:07 PM

Serious answer: No.

pblunts: In the way that Romero was, Horst would be Rube's best candidate.

It goes without being said again, but last night was horrible to watch from the 2nd inning on, and the effect lingers.

I was glad to see the fans cheer Doc as he walks off the mound. The real fans know what he's done for this team and that he's going through something crazy. Howard deserves some boos for his awful ABs; Doc is a completely different story. It's very classy to cheer for him and fans should continue to do so no matter the results. While the text from his son is on a completely different level, Doc is still a hero to many fans as well, and right now he needs all of the support he can get.

That being said, I still have faith he can work it out. The Phillies need to do whatever they can to help him figure it out, too, whether that's sending him to the minors, pulling in special coaches and advisors, pulling their heads out of their asses and facing facts about the condition of his body, a combination of those, or something else entirely. This can't be delayed any longer, no matter what has to be done.

Halladay is, and has been, injured. I simply don't believe he could fall apart this quickly ... he's compensating for an injury.

Was that Enrico Palazzo behind home plate?

Posted by: MG | Tuesday, April 09, 2013 at 12:43 AM

Thank you for making me bust out laughing in my office...well done, sir!

It's one thing to not have it from a physical standpoint but to not have the mental side of the game working in your favor is never a good sign. Doc's confidence is gone. When you no longer think you can do it that is far more scary than not have the physical ability to do it. He absolutely never should have come north with the team. A big league ballgame is not the place to regain your delivery and confidence. We all saw he wasn't ready towards the end of spring. Another poor handling of a big situation with big consequences by the front office.

Fata: agreed. He needs the Brett Myers treatment. Completely different way of being thick skulled, but I think it'd help. Maybe just the prospect of a minor league assignment being brought to him would nudge him out of the denial phase. He knows as well as anyone how it can help from early in his career too.

It's a shame that's even a thought though.

No worries, Halladay is simply working on a new pitch called The Eliminator...if you get a piece of it, you can name it.

He'll be fine.

Maybe...pull Roy from the rotation and work in Florida with Chooch to find the answer. No one is better than Chooch to see what the difference is. At least both Doc and Chooch would be ready by May.

Are Galvis and Aumont still on the team?

Halladay after a strikeout with his new pitch: "You've been....Eliminated!"

Chooch: /lowers head in embarassment

Halladay's K/9 in 2013: 14.73
Halladay's ERA in 2013: 14.73

Not often you see those two match up.

You know, we all laughed at that commercial where he carried around the Chooch plush toy and asked it for advice on everything.

We never thought he was serious.

TTI~ Sutcliffe said a lot during the game too, about Doc not using his legs etc. Does he look injured to you? I'm not sure, but he sure was sweating a lot & I don't think it was that warm & he's definitely not right.

I don't know what can be done about this team. Right now obviously the moves that were made are not working out. And I think everyone is pressing. They're trying but pressing. 3 things are certain. 1. 2 starters are getting lit up. 2. The 'pen isn't stopping runs from scoring and 3. the offense for the most part is not capable of coming back for a win. It all spells trouble.

And the Upton bros. are tearing it up in Atl. I wonder if RAJ and the owners are aware of that. Our OF has done what? Almost nothing. Just venting a little here is all.

Wouldn't Mayberry be a guy who Amaro acquired that has outperformed expectations?

When does Doc not sweat a lot?

Mayberry might be.

DPat: it was warmer than normal last night but pitching and competing exerts energy. I wouldn't look at someone sweating and point to that being an injury.

Also, I saw you mention it the other day and i let it go but you brought it up again. yes the Phillies could've signed BJ Upton but it would've been a lot of money for a very flawed player. Then you said it could've helped them obtain Justin Upton- who were we going to trade for him that gets that done?

And it is basically J. Upton tearing it up in the outfield there. BJ is batting under .200 and Heyward was under .100. Call it a hunch but J UP won't continue to bat over .400 with a 1.192 slugging.

What really saddens me is the fact that I look at the Mets roster and who they have waiting in the wings and they should be much better than the Phillies over the next 5 years.

Halladay did look flushed out there, and generally uncomfortable.

Good thing that baseball is a cool weather sport, right?

Joe D, that's the nature of baseball.

Also, having potential and achieving potential are different things. The Mets look like they have some good pitching coming up, but let's wait for it all to work out before we start lamenting their run at the top.

Fata, I'm not saying it is a given that the Mets will be the better team but right now if you look at everything on paper it gets pretty dark.

Joe D, yeah, my bet right now is that the Phils are cellar dwelling for the next few years...well we would be cellar dwelling, but it'll be hard to be worse than the Marlins.

Wouldn't Mayberry be a guy who Amaro acquired that has outperformed expectations?

Because of his half-2011, you'd have to say a definite yes.

For 2012-2013, I suppose a qualified yes. He's better than Greg Golson is, so there is that. :(

How confident is everyone in Amaro's ability to lead a rebuild?

I've been constantly reminded of the Leonard Cohen line, "I ache in the places where I used to play" over the last 2 years of watching this once unsinkable ship take on water.

Harvey is a good pitcher and should be going forward but until a particular Mets' prospect delivers, I'll just he is the next Lastings Milledge or Paul Wilson. There is always triple the hype regarding a future Met or Yankee. Don't worry about them just yet.

It is not like the Phillies are talentless in the minors. Pitching wise they have some good prospects and the scouts all seem to be in agreement that Biddle will be a nice pitcher.

Joe D: I don't know how I feel on him leading the rebuilding. On one hand he is good at spending money but rebuilding is an entirely different skillset as a GM and it requires you to rely on your scouts. On the other hand, Ethan Martin and Tommy joseph are both interesting prospects that seem to have great upsides.

I think you almost have to keep the jury out a little on Amaro yet as far as a rebuilder.

How confident is everyone in Amaro's ability to lead a rebuild?

Posted by: Joe D | Tuesday, April 09, 2013 at 09:39 AM

Zero...I think he'd be the 2nd worst candidate on earth after Ed Wade to lead a rebuild.

Fata: Doc looking uncomfortable struck me, too. I imagine that everything was accentuated because of his performance, but one can't be totally sure.

In the system they have some arms but outside of Asche and Joseph who do we expect to contribute in the everyday lineup?

I'm very skeptical of Amaro as a rebuilder. I like the Martin and Joseph pickups last year for sure especially because they were pure fire sale moves. I just see most of his tenure thus far as handing out the fattest checks to the biggest free agents. Anyone can sign their name.

I have no confidence in Amaro leading a rebuilding from within. Maybe if the season craps out and he trades all the tradeable names who are not part of a rebuilt Phillies (Lee, Ruiz, Utley, Rollins, Adams, Papelbon) for the right prospects, they could get a good core to build from.

His seeming focus on "production" as the measure of an offensive player does not bode well for the future.

Speaking of the farm teams:

The Ironpigs won 14-5 last night with a 16 hit attack.

Cody Asche and Tommy Joseph both homered with the former having 3 RBI and the latter 4. Leandro Castro went 2 for 5 and is hitting .400 on the season. Cesar Hernandez went 2 for 5 as well and is hitting .455. Darin Ruf is also up to a .318 average now. After BJ Rosenberg gave up 5 in 3 innings, Justin Friend, Michael Stutes, and Jake Diekman came in and held Pawtucket scoreless for the last 6.

The bad is Tyson Gillies went 0-4 and is now hitting .059 on the season.

In Reading- they won 7-4 with Anthony Hewitt going 2-4 and now hitting .412. The bad is Brody Colvin only went 5.1 IP, giving up 6 hits and 3 runs while walking 2 and striking out 2.

I dont even expect Asche to really be an everyday player.

Maybe Franco, Quinn and a couple others down in Low A.

No blue chippers right now though.

With a 24 yr old Ben Revere on the team, I'm not sure a 24yr old Gillies is worth paying much attention too anymore.

I'll say it again since nobody seems to be mentioning it...getting Lee for the 2nd half of 09 for a collection of minor-league garbage was a great trade, and I would add it to his "plus" column. The Halladay trade is also a feather in his cap at this point. He has made some very good moves. He's also made some really questionable ones...and some that just look downright bad.

I dont trust Rube to make any huge trades this year for prospects because he's shown zero ability at actually evaluating talent so far in his trades.

Edmundo: The question would be for me- and I'm glad you started on it:

If this season totally gets lost and we are in sell off mode, who do people think go and who stays?

Obviously Hamels stays, and Brown, and Howard- but after that: do you try to trade Lee? Rollins? Utley?

Yeah I couldn't care less about Gillies now.

NEPP: I think the scouts disagree with you on Joseph at the very least.

***The Halladay trade is also a feather in his cap at this point.***

Had he not immediately traded Lee to "restock the system", I would agree with you there.

Swapping out Lee with Halladay wasn't a huge improvement really and you cant evaluate the Doc trade without adding that 2nd Lee deal and the subsequent Oswalt deal (to help the rotation after losing Lee) into them.

Ruben has appeared to be very good at exploiting teams looking to dump salary or rebuild for the very distant future. He also has done well by not giving up anyone who has turned into much yet. He isn't the worst GM ever. When he went for Lee and Halladay and even Oswalt we all admitted that he was doubling down on 10 and 11. It didn't exactly work out but it wasn't a bust either. This is just the low point.
That said, I still don't think this team is as bad as it has looked. Do we expect Cole to keep laying eggs? Do we expect the bullpen to be this awful for much longer?

Gillies is a non-prospect at this point and the Phils made that clear when the paid the price they did for Revere.

He might get a cup of coffee here or there as a 5th OF but that's about it.

NEPP: I think the scouts disagree with you on Joseph at the very least.

Posted by: The Truth Injection | Tuesday, April 09, 2013 at 10:01 AM

I like Joseph...I was agreeing with him saying Joseph is an future everyday guy but disagreeing on Asche is all. I probably should have listed Joseph in that second sentence but did not due to oversight.

I would take a guess that there are about 75 starters in the MLB right now who have worst "stuff" than Doc currently has right now.

Obviously he can't throw any of it for strikes right now - but for a guy whose likely thrown more strikes than any active player in the major leagues - its so hard to imagine that being such a big obstacle ot correct. Maybe doc needs to take velocity AWAY from his game and start junkballing with a 85mph cutter that he can at least locate.

this assumes he is indeed healthy of course...which is a huge assumption.

***Obviously Hamels stays, and Brown, and Howard***

Add Revere and Papelbon (as no one would take him with that salary anyway).

A full sell mode would have Rollins, Utley, Lee, Adams and Chooch moved for prospects. They'd probably try to move Lee but his salary will make it tough to get real value for him so he might stay just based on that.

As a Mets fan, it was uncomfortable to watch Halladay pitch last night. I hope for the Phillies' sake - and his - he figures out whatever is ailing him and fixes, whether it's mechanics or physical.

Regardless of who he plays for, it's a difficult thing to watch a great player meet an ignominious end whether that's because of injury or sheer stubbornness.

Amaro's real issue seems to be an inability to find real diamonds in the rough, which calls his actual talent evaluation ability into question. His "best value" FA signing that I can think of is Juan Pierre, and that's not a great one.

***His "best value" FA signing that I can think of is Juan Pierre,***

When your best FA signing is a guy that likely should never see significant PA on a competitive club, you likely aren't a very good GM.

Hell, I like Pierre and loved his energy and effort last year but he has no business as an everyday player on a playoff club. Though, to be fair, the Phillies weren't close to a playoff club in 2012 so he was likely right where he belonged.

A full sell mode would have Rollins, Utley, Lee, Adams and Chooch moved for prospects. They'd probably try to move Lee but his salary will make it tough to get real value for him so he might stay just based on that.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 09, 2013 at 10:05 AM

I doubt this team goes into full fire-sale mode...but if Lee has a strong first half there will be a market for him and not just as a salary dump. They could all bring back a solid return depending on ownership's willingness to eat salary.

Referencing an earlier point: would they really send Doc to the minors? I agree the team can ill afford to weather the 4+ IP, 5+ ER starts, but I don't think they would do that. A trip to the DL seems more likely, IMO.

***They could all bring back a solid return depending on ownership's willingness to eat salary***

That's the key right there.

Lee has 3 years, $87.5 million remaining on his contract and if his 2016 option vests, its 4 years, $102.5 million through his Age 37 season.

That's a lot of contract to move and try to get any value for in return.

Preparing for the return of the Olt speculations, this time with Lee...

TTI~ Just comparing what could have been to what is, that's all. And while I don't disagree about the major overpay for BJ, I wonder how Worley would look in the rotaion right now.

Howard doesn't have anyone protecting him. But he's not hitting so it doesn't matter.
And then I see Carrera come up and K. He was swinging way too late. Whay even have a bat in his hands. There just seems to be too many easy outs once a gain. I know it's still early, but 2013 looks a lot like 2012. At some point, it isn't early anymore.

We can certainly see that the Phils are gonna have a tough time competing in this divison (or any other one for that matter), if things don't change.

If Howard had any protection, he totally wouldn't swing at balls in the dirt 3 feet outside.

Salisbury's piece on Doc:

I feel so bad for him.

In regards to yesterday's discussion, Doc did not throw his catchers under the bus last night.

Halladay addressed one mini-controversy, saying that Erik Kratz and Humberto Quintero, the catchers who are filling in for Carlos Ruiz, have nothing to do with the pitching problems.

“We have to execute pitches,” Halladay said. “I don’t think that falls on the catchers.”

Would Rollins hitting 5 (something I've been trumpeting since March) help Howard right now? I sure think it would.

The lineup should be and should have been:

Nix/Mayberry/someone who walks through the gate

Wonder how we all would feel if Jonathan Singleton, Jarred Cosart and Domingo Santana were still in the farm system...

Well NEPP, if you take Halladay, Utley, Rollins, Adams, Young, etc off the 2014 payroll, there could be a lot of room to eat salary for a Lee deal...

***Would Rollins hitting 5 (something I've been trumpeting since March) help Howard right now? I sure think it would. ***

They could give Howard a cricket bat to hit with and I dont think it would help right now.

Well NEPP, if you take Halladay, Utley, Rollins, Adams, Young, etc off the 2014 payroll, there could be a lot of room to eat salary for a Lee deal...

Posted by: Chris in VT | Tuesday, April 09, 2013 at 10:21 AM

That's a good point.

"NEPP: I think the scouts disagree with you on Joseph at the very least."

Depends on your definition of a "blue chipper." I think of a "blue chipper" as a top 50/top 100 guy who has actually had demonstrated success at AA or above. Joseph isn't even close to that. He's a guy who showed good power in A ball at a young age, and who has a great throwing arm. But his offense was dreadful last year & he already has 6 passed balls in the first 3 or 4 games of this year. Even true blue chippers have a high failure rate. Banking on a guy like Tommy Joseph to prevent the Phillies from becoming a last place team is a pipe dream.

Every organization has Tommy Joseph/Maikel Franco/Roman Quinn caliber prospects & most of those organizations have a lot more of them than the Phillies do. If those are your best prospects, that's not good.

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