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Sunday, April 14, 2013

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I'm really hoping Halladay can win by default today. Have him go 5in/4ER, and we pull together some runs.

Cholly wants this game bad. All the regulars in today and no off-day tomorrow.

Missed Galvis. Love to see the lazy lineup card where Cholly just scratches off a name and inserts a guy in that position in the order that has no business there.

Done that before in the No 2 spot including even with Mini Mart.

Ryan Lawrence ‏@ryanlawrence21 7m

RT @joefrisaro: #Marlins Kearns sent to hospital with an irregular heart beat

MG- I see your boy Joe Nathan is mowing down the opposition again this year. 4 saves in 4 opportunities with just one earned run in six innings (7 Ks).

Glad we didn't make a bet on that (I would have gladly at the time) because I would have been dead wrong. Signing Nathan to a similar deal would have the Phils in much better position going forward and would have given them some extra money this year to maybe pursue an OF. They could have even transitioned with Adams as closer in 2014 if a few young guys take a step forward and avoided spending $ in FA on another closer.

Instead, they're stuck with Papelbon's contract for at least two more seasons at an insane AAV, and it will prevent them from making, at the very least, a variety of smaller moves to keep the team at least semi-competitive.

I like that UC is starting to give his aging IFs off days and I like that Galvis is getting the playing time.

Smart management.

***#Marlins Kearns sent to hospital with an irregular heart beat***

"Now Homer, I'm not gonna lie to you, you can beat Tatum, you just gotta visualize it."-Moe Sizlack

"Drederick Tatum was felled by a congenital heart defect moments before he was to enter the ring."-Announcer

Revere/Galvis 1/2 is pretty stupid though.

Iceman - Yeah and Papelbon has had yet another tick down so far early this year in his fastball velocity.

Biggest reason I hated that signing was the years and not the dollars. Even 3 yr/$39M would have been more appealing at and at worst if the Phils are sellers next year, they might be able to move him for some useful pieces if he was pitching well.

Essentially another immovable high-dollar piece.

More and more the Minaya-Amaro comparison holds up and I just don't hope the Phils implode as badly as the Mets did but there is certainly a pretty decent possibility of that due to several factors. Only positive is the Phils won't have the financial fiscal on their owners suddenly have acute financial issues.

I get that you need to play your backups now and then if you want them to stay sharp. I do not, for the life of me, get why Cholly believes the backups must assume the same spot in the batting order as the starter. Would any other manager in baseball bat 2 of the 3 worst hitters in the lineup 1 and 2?

***Would any other manager in baseball bat 2 of the 3 worst hitters in the lineup 1 and 2?***

Stupider like a fox!

The "gauntlet" of Quintero/Halladay/Revere/Galvis is going to make Slowey look like Bob Gibson.

Maybe Revere can share some tips on how to hit his former teammate Slowey.

With Stanton once again out of the lineup, and the Phillies playing at the Polo Grounds, we can be reasonably certain that Halladay won't be dealing with any home runs today, at least.

My heart hopes that Halladay is healthy but my head says different. I'm taking the Fish today at +125 but at a small wager because the Fish are starting another mediocrity in Slowey.

LHB have generally teed off on him during his career (.294/.336/.495 - .830 OPS). No reason the Phils can score at least 2 or 3 runs today vs Slowey. Even if he is good, I don't see him lasting more than 6 either.

Maybe Revere can share some tips on how to hit his former teammate Slowey.

"Just do what I do, fellas: barely make contact, then run like hell!"

And based on what evidence was Slowey not going to look like Gibson anyway?

This offense is simply bad. They beat up on some AAAA pitchers and everyone thinks it's fine. On the average they're average. But in reality, they are not average. Any good pitcher will carve them up. And a lot of mediocrities will carve them up as well. And any team that has a competent lefty in the pen . . . you get the idea.

Ben Revere giving hitting tips?

I almost choked on my breakfast burrito. I nominate that for post of the year.

I share confusion about batting Revere & Galvis 1-2.

I share confusion about trying to ever understand the baseball "intellect" of Charlie Manuel.

Manuel likes speed at the 1-2 spots in the lineup. He thinks Galvis is fast. That is why he's batting 2nd.

I understand disagreeing over it, but I think everyone knows Manuel enough to know his 'reasoning' behind it.

""On the average they're average. But in reality, they are not average."

The brilliance of aksmith, ladies and gentleman. Like Yogi Berra, only unlikable.

I also echo CS in the first post. Just get a win for Doc, and may he just pitch "serviceably". Doesn't need a CGSO (just a few years ago, that's exactly what we'd think possible of him, esp. facing this lineup), just needs to show improvement and give himself and us some hope. Definitely needs a win v. the Fish.

Iceman, he also thinks Revere is a good leadoff hitter.

Iceman - I doubt he thinks Galvis is fast. He just inserts a guy into the 2 or 3 spot on off-days including Sundays.

It is just how Cholly rolls. I won't miss him not being the manager next year. Not going to fault him for this team not making the playoffs or this year. That is more due to health and reflective of the GM & the organization.

What I will say is that with the exception of '07 here I don't think he has generally gotten a lot more of the talent he has had. Even in '07, his bullpen management was horrendous but I give him credit for keeping the ship afloat after that horrendous start & enabling them to bounce after so many crushing defeats that year.

To be fair to Charlie, he gets 162 lineup cards pre-printed from Kinkos before the season and its simply easier to white-out one name instead of several.

MG: I'd be willing to bet Charlie really does think Galvis is fast. He said as much RE: Martinez, & everyone w/ eyes knew that was a big ol' crock of poop. The man is not a good judge of skill, period.

I agree w/ the remainder of your post, however. The current & impending failures of the '13 Phillies have a lot more to do w/ r00b's joke of a roster than Charlie's management thereof.

Cholly isn't a fool either. If you listen to him talk on a 1-on-1 interview where he is comfortable and relaxed, he's knows a ton about baseball especially hitting.

He is a below average game-day manager and largely because he is such a creature of orthodoxy who refuses to change.

It has served his well here during his tenure including most notably with PtB in '07 and how he has handled issues with JRoll. Few managers in MLB could have been as successful as dealing with JRoll.

Just drives me crazy to watch him handle a pitching staff on a daily basis and a roster over the longer term. Managerial style of wanting to trot out the same 9 everyday isn't particularly well-suited to the NL.

He'll be remembered very fondly in years to come because the Phils won a WS during his tenure & his overall folksy demeanor but I don't think he ever really got more of the talent he had. His team generally played about up to their abilities which can be viewed both as a positive thing and negative thing.

Using the lineup evaluator shows that Galvis is about the worst possible choice for the 2 hole. Only Quintero or Halladay would be a worse choice.

But filling out a lineup with 3 automatic outs is no easy task.

Also, interesting to see Mayberry in there again vs. a RHP. Would've thought Nix might've gotten the start thanks to that catch (and 1 hit) last night. But if you're a manager whose first choice to pinch hit vs. RHP is Kevin Frandsen, then this is how you roll.

***Only Quintero or Halladay would be a worse choice.***

Dont tempt Charlie.

I consider it a blessing Quintero can't hit. After all, Quintero has to be at the bottom of the lineup because he's a Catcher. Those are the rules. How many years did it take Charlie to move Chooch up in the order?

As I said last night, this lineup really misses Ruiz. Kratz has been absolutely God awful with no walks and just 3 XBH in 10 games. He's hitting .189. There is a reason that everyone except BAP was worried about these 25 games.

And MG pointed this out last night- as much as people want to rip on DYoung (and rightfully so in most cases), he can hit LHP well, and when he is healthy that's another weapon against LHP that will improve the team. It will either move Mayberry to the bench as a weapon against a LOOGY late in the game, or Young himself will be a PH off the bench that can hit lefties.

Putting Ruiz in the middle of the order really lengthens the lineup. If MYoung really has turned a corner (and he does look much better, hitting a ton of balls hard), a middle of the order of Utley-Howard-Ruiz-Young-Brown is pretty good- and against LHP, Manuel could potentially stack the following slash lines in the lineup against LHP:

Ruiz (.273/.368/.799)
MYoung (.313/.364/.834)
Mayberry (.285/.330/.875)
DYoung (.307/.341/.824)

Quite frankly, the biggest problem they have against LHP has nothing to do with the personnel, once they're all present and accounted for: it's with Manuel putting Rollins-Utley-Howard, and last night Brown after Howard, all in a row at the top of the lineup. Revere doesn't have a platoon split, so he's not a problem. Something like Revere-Utley-MYoung-Ruiz-Howard-Mayberry-DYoung-Rollins would be ideal. Or better yet, sub Mayberry in for Howard against the tougher LHP, and it's an above-average lineup against lefties.

Anyway, the offense is what it is. Calling it 'bad' is just stupid. It's an average offense that will get shut down by very good pitching (like Harvey and Fernandez), just like most of the MLB does, a good amount of the time. And it will go as far as its starting pitching takes it- just like it has the past two years.

Fata- you're right. After 11 games, it's time to pull the plug on Revere's career as a lead-off hitter.

I've heard Charlie talk about hitting before too, and he seems very knowledgeable. Which is why I'm absolutely confused why he seems unable to pass that knowledge on to others. I can't recall a hitter here in the last 5 years who has credited UC with helping him on his swing, approach, whatever. I don't recall any players who hit much better under his tutelage.

In fact we have several hitters who, with minor tweaks, could probably be better, but stubbornly refuse to change. Howard comes to mind.

So, even if UC is "smart" at hitting, if he can't get tangible results with that knowledge, then what good is it?

Lots of the all-time greats have trouble passing on their skills/knowledge.


And UC was never even anything more than a failed MLB player.

Iceman, he wasn't a good leadoff hitter coming into the year, either. The idea, that even you espoused, is that he should be placed at the bottom of the order until he could prove that he could sustain a good OBP, at which point he should be placed in the leadoff spot.

Well, I don't see a good OBP yet, do you?

MG- I doubt a beat writer will ask (they usually have bigger fish to fry with Manuel than to ask about his lineup construction), but if they inquired about why Manuel's hitting Galvis second, I bet his reasoning is "I like speed at the top of the lineup."

He might simply cross out a guy's name and insert the backup there- I totally believe that- but the reasoning he will give is that Galvis is "fast." He likes speed out of the 2-hole. Always has.

Iceman - With Chooch in there, I think it is an average/slightly above average.

I hope when Chooch comes back the 'Revere in the leadoff' spot ends and the Phils go with

JRoll
Utley
Chooch
Howard
M. Young
Brown
Mayberry/Nix
P
Revere

I know Cholly won't ever bat Revere 9th but that is the lineup I would like to see and that Cholly might have some vague inclination to use.

If you scroll to the bottom on ESPN's list of ERA leaders, you'll find that Edinson Volquez, at 11.68, has the worst ERA of the 102 qualified pitchers. Old friend Vance Worley is second worst at 10.50. Hamels, even after yesterday, is still 4th worst at 7.56. Halladay's ERA is 14.73, which would put him 3 full runs behind Volquez. But since he has been knocked out within 4 innings in both of his starts, he doesn't have enough IP to qualify for the list.

Iceman - Yeah that Galvis isn't fast and Cholly knows that. I don't he used him as a PR last year if I recall correctly.

Revere figured trying to hit the ball past the pitcher wasn't working, so now he's trying to drop it somewhere in front of the pitcher.

Still doesn't work.

First pitch called strike to Ben Revere, followed by a groundout that traveled all of 10 feet. Who could have guessed?

Best 2 hole hitter in the game.

Other than Jon Rauch, this Marlins pitching has made Utley look awful.

Galvis got to 3B there due to his sheer speed. Charlie feels validated.

Revere's out a slow start but it's been 11 G. To me the bigger disappointment with him so far has been the defense. He's made a couple of really good plays in CF but he has also muffed a few plays too.

It'd be nice to score a couple here in the 1st.

Shocking. Phils didn't score with RISP.

Sure, Revere's out to a slow start on the offensive side, and I'm certain he'll pick it up. But he should have started the season in the leadoff spot, and he shouldn't be there now.

But, you know, he looked good in ST, so that vindicates it.

Fata- I believe the idea that "even I espoused" is that he should get a chance to bat lead-off. I felt it was time for a change.

It's been 11 games. Sorry if I'm not ready to join the brainless dogpile on Revere that is officially waving the white flag on him as a player (and please don't respond that these people don't exist- we both know they do).

Heather: Amen! to your 01.06PM post. Charlie talks a decent hitting game, but has zero practical value as a coach of the same.

MG- what plays has Revere 'muffed' in the OF? I can't think of a single play.

Iceman, I'm not raising the white flag, I'm saying he needs to prove that he can maintain a high OBP before being placed in the leadoff spot, especially since he has zero power.

You can go on and twist my words all you want, but I'm not "dogpiling" on Revere. I'm claiming that he wasn't a good leadoff candidate coming into the year, and he's still not.

Iceman - There have been a few balls that have dropped that I thought Revere could have gotten too if he had taken a better route.

I'm not sure what is more funny. Wheels saying Doc had really good Bullpens leading to this start. Or saying Pierre hurt is meat hook on that diving attempt.

The Marlins have more different uniform combinations than tickets sold.

I'm not necessarily encouraged by that inning. The cutter he threw to Coghlan was a meatball that he hammered right at Utley.

Fairly easy first inning for Doc.

He also had a fairly easy first inning against the Mets. Let's hope the results are different.

Iceman - As long as you're being a douche, I'll play along. An Iceman instant classic or dopiness.

"Revere doesn't have a platoon split, so he's not a problem."

Its hard to have a platoon split when you dont hit either type of pitching.

"I'm not sure what is more funny. Wheels saying Doc had really good Bullpens leading to this start"

Since the start of last season, Halladay is 27-2 with a 0.65 ERA, a 0.25 WHIP, and a 17.00 strikeout:walk ratio in bullpen sessions.

Kevin Slowey was so dominant that he couldn't even crack the Indians rotation last year...and he was dumped by the Twins the year before after a 6+ ERA.

We should be teeing off on this bum.

Fata- fair enough.

MG- maybe I just missed the plays (I haven't seen every inning), but I don't remember at all what you're talking about. It seems to curiously fit your narrative from before the season. I haven't seen anyone else here complaining about plays he's missed (and if there's something to complain about, it will be complained about on BL).

Of course Revere doesn't have a platoon split.

Of course, he also has a career .621 OPS against LHP, so he still sucks vs. them.

He just has kind of sucked vs all handed pitching in his career.

It's not exactly fair to Halladay, but if he gets hammered it's probably rightly interpreted as being more of the same, & if he pitches well it's probably rightly interpreted as the Marlins being an awful opponent. There's not much to learn.

2009-2011: 5.01 ERA for Slowey...and he was in the minors all last season.

When does a team/announcer ever say a guy had a bad bullpen session?

'Yeah Halladay looked awful out there and was cussing more than a guy with Torrette's"

NEPP: So 8 innings of 2-hit ball, then?

Doc didn't look good. His release point is really low relative to normal. Balls left right in the middle of the plate (though Fish can't hit).

I wait for the day when we learn what's wrong with him.

Point: "2009-2011: 5.01 ERA for Slowey...and he was in the minors all last season."

Counterpoint: "Quintero/Halladay/Revere/Galvis"

***So 8 innings of 2-hit ball, then?***

CG SO.

aksmith- Revere is a LHB that does not see a drop-off in performance against LHP. Therefore, he is not a problem against LHP.

I used to think you weren't really genuinely stupid and that it was all just an act. But I'm coming around.

Prescient, Wheels, prescient.

For what it is worth, the Phils' opponents have .564 winning pct coming into today which is 4th in MLB right now. Braves, Royals, and Mets have all gotten out to solid starts.

You know, because you want to be running when Quintero's up w/ a 2-Strike count.

***I wait for the day when we learn what's wrong with him.***

He got old...it happens.

***Therefore, he is not a problem against LHP.***

Well, his performance definitely doesn't "drop" against LHP.

That's definitely true.

GTown, I think having Quintero at the plate at all was the real problem there.

I didn't realize how completely inept Quintero is offensively. He wouldn't hit .250 at T-AAA.

Technically, it does drop from .644 to .621. The bigger issue being that the higher side of his platoon split is a .644 OPS.

Fatalotti: The Phillies never miss a chance to compound their stupid.

Fata- what do you mean 'of course' he doesn't have a platoon split? He hit .314 against LHP last year. He isn't a liability the way guys like Rollins/Utley/Howard are against LHP. That's all. What is so hard to understand about that?

I can see it will be an uphill battle against all the buffoons on here who expect Revere to be a .750 OPS player.

So you can drive the ball in this park...hmm.

Fatalotti is being disingenuous here, as he often is. He knows that a player like Revere can never have a good OPS because he's utterly devoid of power. Like Juan Pierre (career OPS+ of 84) OPS is not a good measure of the value of fast, good defense, good BA players who have no power.

Iceman, that line wasn't sarcasm. I was agreeing with you. He does NOT have a noticeable platoon split.

He just sucks vs. both handed pitching.

Halladay's command is still all over the place. Ugh.

clout, never said he can't. I'm saying, to this point in his career, he hasn't.

Really that hard to understand?

You can go look at his career numbers, if you'd like.

So far, I count one first-pitch strike.

Dumping on Revere's offense after 10 games is kind of pointless. It's not his fault he is put in the leadoff spot by his manager. He's a guy I want hitting 8th and running a lot.

bap - Yup. He has no feel for anything today so far except his curve.

MG: So you want Revere to be the Catcher? Because Catchers bat 8th. That's just how it has to be.

Iceman - As NEPP immediately picked up on, having a platoon split or not doesn't matter when you stink against both righties and lefties. I'm coming to the conclusion that you are more than a bit slow.

aksmith- Revere is a LHB that does not see a drop-off in performance against LHP. Therefore, he is not a problem against LHP.

I used to think you weren't really genuinely stupid and that it was all just an act. But I'm coming around.

Posted by: Iceman | Sunday, April 14, 2013 at 01:31 PM

***He has no feel for anything today so far except his curve.***

Must be a day ending in "y"

Also clout, never said a damn thing of Revere's baserunning or defense.

Revere has a career .276 BA and a .318 OBP, so I don't see how you can claim that he's a "good BA" player right now.

Everyone is just assuming that he'll get better, and he very well may, but shouldn't we wait for him to, you know, get better, before we give him the most PAs on the team?

To this point in his career, he's been a bad offensive player. Simple as that. I hope he gets better. I really do. You'd think such an opinion wouldn't be so controversial.

Halladay continues to use that cutter and it is all over the place. At least it hasn't bee up so far today.

Redmond was probably the only thing that prevented that from being a big inning for the Marlins. Sending probably his best hitter up to sacrifice, when the runner was already in scoring position, was incalculably stupid.

Matt Gelb: "Roy Halladay has thrown one first-pitch strike in two innings, and that was when the No. 5 hitter inexplicably bunted in the 2nd inning."

Bingo.

Let's see if I can reverse-jinx this. I predict Revere takes a first pitch strike, then grounds out.

Slowey has had really good fastball command here early.

Bound to work eventually.

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