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Sunday, April 28, 2013

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wooft. that line-upt ist interestingt.

Yest itt ist.

Rollins with a .386 OBP in the 10 games he's been moved back to leadoff. His 9th double yesterday has him tied for the league lead.

Lorecore, it's still my stance that the Rollins contract will go down as the best contract that RAJ ever signed during his tenure as Phillies GM. Great value and length, for a player who'll likely be top 5 in the NL at his position for the duration of the contract.

Chooch is back, & the Phils made a personnel decision I agree w/ ... these are high times, my friends!

wow, lefty or no lefty, I wouldn't be resting Howard today just as he begins to "produce". Particularly with the day off tomorrow. Tab him for a pinch-hitting situation in the 6th-7th, and hopefully a late AB if game is in doubt.

With the exception of Frandsen at 1B, a defense-first alignment for Hamels must mean UC thinks we're in for a low-scoring affair.

Great time to sit Howard and get Frandsen's bat in the lineup. That's essentially what the lineup should look like against LHP every time until Young comes up.

Fatalotti: I'm inclined to agree with you on Rollins.

Interesting question--who are the top SS in baseball today? If Tulo is healthy, I think he's pretty clearly at the top of the list. After that, it's really hard to figure it out. Rollins is in there, as is Elvis Andrus, and Reyes if he's healthy. And a whole group of guys it's really hard to get a read on: Ian Desmond, Asdrubal Cabrera, Alexei Ramirez, Alcides Escobar.

Not sure the cream of that group has really risen to the top yet and produced enough over a few seasons to be established as the top tier.

Fatal: And if you think about how the Rollins contract came to fruition, it was likely the only deal RAJ ever has made where he waited the market out before agreeing.

All of his most criticized moves are instances of him striking first.

His trade of Lee to Seattle seemed to be made in haste without shopping for the best trade partner, his Howard deal was made well in advance, and his Papelbon signing was made immediately in FA after the Madson talks soured.

2011-2013 fWAR:

Jose Reyes
Jimmy Rollins
Elvis Andrus
Johnny Peralta
Erick Aybar


Tulo(injuries) and Ian Desmond(possible late bloomer) deserve to be in the conversation, but i'd say thats an accurate top 5.

Andrus off to a terrible start and Reyes is injured.

Brandon Crawford and Jean Segura are off to very good starts right now, so they have a good chance to be in the conversation soon as well.

Angels' Aybar injured as well right now.

Iceman - Completely agreed. As clout's posts every start Frandsen gets against RHP, you are setting him up to fail.

Frandsen splits:

LHP: .282/.346/.381 (.727 OPS)
RHP: .256/.303/.352 (.655 OPS)

Howard is off to another terrible start vs LHP (4-24 with 1 HR and 1 BB/12 Ks). Cholly is just as likely to get production out of Frandsen push it probably gives Howard a needed day off.

Probably Cholly's best Sunday lineup all year.

Jack, pre-season, FG had him as the 5th best NL shortstop behind Tulo, Desmond, Castro and Han-Ram.

I think Castro is still living on potential, because so far, I'm completely unimpressed by his career. He's got a career 102 wRC+, which should be good for a shortstop, but it's only good for a shortstop if you're a good defender, which the numbers don't seem to agree with it. Otherwise, he's a league average hitter, playing poor defense at the most important position on the diamond.

Likewise, I think Han-Ram is living on reputation at this point. I'd take Jimmy over him this year.

Tulo is clearly the best SS in baseball, and I think Desmond's better than Jimmy.

As for AL SS, Reyes is great, but always injured/injury risk, Cabrera has a bat this is too inconsistent year in/out for me to think it makes up for his defense, and Yunel Escobar is decent.

The rest are proven mediocrities or unproven players with potential.

It's a weak class, and I'd argue that a case can be made for Jimmy to be top 5 in baseball overall, with all factors considered.

Forgot to mention Andrus, who is probably better than Jimmy at this point, just due to his fantastic defense, but defense peaks really early, so I'm not sure if he'll have the kind of career duration that Jimmy has had.

It's a good discussion, though.

It's never a bad idea to "rest" Howard against a LH starter. On the other hand, it's never a good idea to start Freddy Galvis in LF and it's a particularly bizarre idea to start him there when Howard's out & you have the option of moving Utley or Young to 1st base.

Reposted from the end of the last thread:


Quintero's DFA status was also reported by Matt Gelb. Absolutely, it was the right choice. In response to the inquiry above as to whether the decision of Kratz vs. Quintero was a difficult one, considering small amount of playing time that Quintero was given since the regular season started should have seen that there was never any serious question that Quintero would go when Ruiz came back.

As for the "game calling" knock that Mat Gelb and other beat reporters constructed after diva Halladay blamed Kratz for setitng his target "low inside", inside of "high inside" or outside -- the absurdity of the situation defied reason. It was as if Halladay had never before "shaken off" a pitch call from Kratz or anhy other catcher. It was nonsense, but it grew into a baseless "Kratz is a lousy game caller" conclusion. Similarly, Lee bounces a wild pitch curve in the dirt, and Kratz is excoriated by the Phillies fan base as being "bad on defense" for not having blocked it. Kratz has a gun for an arm, throwing out more than 45% of the runners who attempted to steal on him last season, and his caught stealing number is 33% this year, still a very good number.

Quintero, on the other hand, is a catcher with terrible form (he's moving around behind the plate during the pitcher's entire windup). Q was a guy who wasn't even on a major league roster at the end of last season, which Quintero finished and played mostly at the Brewers AAA club in Nashville, after Q was DFA'd by the Royals in June with no one in baseball wanting to give him a big league job.

It's probably been worth the 25-game Chooch suspension just for the return of Davthom for some backup catcher-related discussion.

bap - Today is actually a good example of where this team would be better off with D. Young starting in LF today.

Take his lousy defense for his bat vs Galvis playing out of position and minimal offense.

Clearly. And it is great to have Chooch back, but the expectation that Ruiz is going to carry the offense after not seeing regular season major league pitching since last October is unfair to him. Chooch may well have a protracted slow start.

This might trigger a Sophist post but Hamels has been pretty mediocre overall. Yeah his last 3 starts have been better but this is one of those games where the Phils need him to go out & given them a dominant performance (say at least 7 IP and 2 ER or less).

Think he has one of his games where he has a decent K total but mixes in a few BBS, gives up a HR, and only lasts 6 or into the 7th (6 1/3)

Say 6 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 4 R, 2 BB, 7 Ks, 1 HR

Phils aren't able to do enough against Niese and lose a close game. Take the Mets at +105.

This is one of those games today the Phils need to win too if they want to get back to the playoffs.

Rollins said the other day that he wasn't that concerned about the Phils lack of early momentum/consistently playing well but he should be.

This team isn't the team from 3-4 years ago that can scuffle through early parts of the season only to go on a 2nd half tear (boosted in part by a key deadline acquisition).

Phils have left a few games get away from them already this year but the Pirates' series to me is the first series where they kicked the pooch. Won the first game (Burnett vs. Pettibone) and then lost the next 3 with Lee, Halladay, Hamels on the mound all giving them pretty decent starts.

Phils need to win today, split in Cleveland, and win at least 3 of 4 vs Fish at home next weekend. That would leave them at 16-16.

With the schedule they have had, they probably should have been at least a game or two above .500 at this point but at least that puts them back on the right track.

mg: from last thread, the underdog is 8-1 in the phils last 9 games.

I don't see the problem with Freddy playing OF. Sure, he's a gifted infielder, but he seems pretty good in the OF, too. And he can hit the ball further than Revere, for that matter. Would you play Nix instead, v. Niese??

Does Frandsen just soak his helmet in pine tar every night?

Utley has just been hitting the ball hard all season.

For all of the angst about Freddy in the OF -- & I readily admit contributing to the same -- is Galvis in LF really that much of a downgrade from, say, Revere in CF? Freddy has a better arm, takes better routes & his bat, while terrible, is still better than Revere's. I wouldn't advocate this as an everyday move, but in Charlie's usual whackbleep Sunday lineup, I find myself caring less & less whether Galvis is playing the OF.

GBrett: He does seem good in the OF. But LF doesn't get that many opportunities and most of the ones it does get are the kinds of opportunities in which there would be a huge overlap of results among all left fielders. So it's just hard for me to see how the benefit of his LF defense outweighs the downside of his hideous bat. If you play him at 2nd base, at least you're getting a huge defensive upgrade at an important position.

(Full acknowledgment that my prior post guarantees Freddy goes 0-4 w/ 3K, & commits at least 2 Errors)

With Revere out and a left handed pitcher starting Galvis is perfectly fine in the OF.

If it was a RHP, it should be Nix.

Chooch is so good he induces the other team to commit Errors.

For all the ranting and raving about Charlie's supposed failings a hitting instructor, Chooch has got to his shining star. Guy went from a liability with the bat to an All Star caliber hitter under Cholly's tutelage.

The Mets are fielding like the Phillies.

If Galvis could play CF as well as he plays IF, no one would really complain as much about an OF start. The comparison to Revere doesn't work because Galvis is in left -- one of the least important positions defensively.

Phils problem isn't that Galvis is really the wrong choice. Their problem, with Revere out of struggling, is that they don't have a good choice against a LHP. Just a poorly constructed OF.

Carlos Ruiz just knows how to hit dribblers down the 3rd base line. He's been doing it since the 2008 WS.

That was the quintiessential 2013 Phillies weak groundout.

Dom hit that with a little less force than yesterday.

Wow, for as far as Dom hit that HR yesterday, I don't think he could have hit that ball any less on a full swing.

Their problem, with Revere out of struggling, is that they don't have a good choice against a LHP.

And even if they did, Charlie would misuse him 85% of the time. With this manager you need to construct a roster which requires nothing less than sending the same guys out there to play the same positions, day after day.

really would have liked to have mayberry up there. But I guess you gotta split up the righties.

Day? Road? Mets? Hamels?

MG probably bet his life savings against the Phillies today.

The only good thing out of that inning was that they at least made Niese throw 26 pitches.

Or, rather, the Mets defense made Niese throw 26 pitches.

bad luck for DOM, 99% of the time, that swing simply fouls off a tough breaking ball with 2 strikes. Can't believe it stayed in front of the plate.

Brown had his pitch at 1-1, and took it right down the middle.

Keep making Niese throw pitches, and it'll be ok.

Keep making Niese throw pitches, and it'll be ok.

Posted by: bittel | Sunday, April 28, 2013 at 01:25 PM

How many times have we heard this about various starters?

"bad luck for DOM, 99% of the time, that swing simply fouls off a tough breaking ball with 2 strikes."

I see your point but I must admit: when I think of hitting into bad luck, ABs like that one are not what spring to mind.

Nice, Chase.

Just want to point out that the fact that LF is one of the least important positions defensively doesn't keep us from complaining about poor LFs.

I compared Galvis to Revere strictly for offensive reasons, although GTown brings up the point that Galvis has a stronger arm than Revere.

I can't wait until Chooch gets back so Hamels can pitch better.

Going with your 4th best pitch in that AB.

Seems pretty smart to me.

How predictable.

I'm still waiting for the dominant ace who was worth $24 M a year to show up.

Gelb: "Amazing stat: Joe Blanton has allowed at least one hit in all 30 innings he's pitched in 2013. He has a 7.09 ERA."

Nope. Don't miss that guy. Have fun, Angels fans.

Gelb: "Amazing stat: Joe Blanton has allowed at least one hit in all 30 innings he's pitched in 2013. He has a 7.09 ERA."

Blanton's agent is the best of all time.

Another long first inning for Hamels.

24M is supposed to buy dominance. Not adequate.

If Galvis is going to have ABs like that, then I think it's reasonable to expect him to catch David Wright's RBI single in the 1st.

The Freddi Galvis Experience is the most popular ride in Sesame Place.

10 pitches. Great.

And Niese's pitch count gets back under control pretty quickly.

Wright has three smash hits on hanging offspeed stuff this series. Might want to make an adjustment.

Yeah, Cole not particularly sharp today.

Frandsen and Dom obviously having an in game competition to see who can hit the ball weaker, and keep it fair.

Dom is in the lead by a mile right now.

Fat: Ben Revere sees Dom's 2-inch ground ball and raises him to 4 centimeters.

That should have been strike 3.

Lotta poor ball/strike calls for Cole today.

Casper Wells re-DFA'd... nows our chance!

Cole's just throwing a ton of pitches this game.

"Cole's just throwing a ton of pitches this game."

That has kind of been his issue all month. He gets 2 strikes on a guy, then nibbles & can't put him away. Hence, a high pitch count.

We like to kid, but the guy is a professional hitter :)

bittel, I just remember the last time a mid 30s 3B for the Phillies had a crazy good April, and how that turned out.

We'll see.

2011, Placido Polanco, 35 years old:

April: .398/.447/.524 (.972)
May-September 28: .243/.304/.287 (.591)

April 2013, for Michael Young:

.353/.415/.435 (.850)

Let's hope he has a different ending.

John Perrotto: John Sterling's Brennan Boesch home run call: "A B.B. by B.B.. It's Boesch, by gosh."

Barf.

What a perfectly hideous AB.

Well, I knew it wasn't Rick Schu.

Blah. Mayberry swings at ball 4, then watches strike 3.

Newsflash: The offense still stinks.

Fatalotti: I have more faith in M. Young than I did in Polanco.

Fatalotti: To be fair, Polanco has a much more significant injury history than Michael Young, and Polly's injuries were directly responsible for his terrible post-April stats.

This ump blows.

This strikezone is garbage for both pitchers.

...Polly's injuries were directly responsible for his terrible post-April stats.

Posted by: Phillibuster | Sunday, April 28, 2013 at 02:15 PM

Or so the legend goes.

Considering some of the strikes that have been called balls on Cole today, the Mets' announcers have absolutely no standing to b*tch about that strike 3 pitch to Buck being low.

You think it's more likely the stats were responsible for the injury?

'buster, I think Polly was a mid 30s player who had played lots of middle infield in his career. And those players are prone to both decline significantly in the their performance, and also to be very injury prone.

I don't know for certain that Polanco wouldn't sucked at the plate that year if he weren't injured. That's all. Injuries never affected his defense, as he was still a stellar defenseve 3B that year.

Philli: I think his point is: we have no idea if these injuries were the cause of his post-April stats. Considering that he had like 5 straight years of declining numbers, one could just as easily infer that his numbers declined after April because he's simply not very good anymore.

Something tells me that little Frandsen pop-up adventure may be a bit of foreshadowing.

And wtf is with Hamels' command?

Hamels walks 2 lefties, one of which is Ike Davis.

Terrific.

The large increase in walks this year for Cole, coupled with the severe decrease in ground balls, is cause for concern for Hamels.

Welke has been around a long time and has a well earned rep for having a strike zone that varies alot. Generally though call a more favorable zone for pitchers.

What the hell, Cole?

Three straight walks. Wow.

The mayberry AB where he swung at a terrible pitch 3-1, and then stared at a perfect pitch 3-2 sums up this team's offense pretty well.

Jroll also took a 2-0 fastball down the middle, and then swung at an ugly curveball 2-1 for a flyout. Same applies.

I love that the Myth of the Healthy Polanco persists even after he's gone.

Hamels is so predictable at times it is scarily disconcerting. Made me a nice pot the last 4 years.

For what it's worth, L.A. -- who never hesitates to rip an umpire -- isn't complaining today. Focused more on Hamels' lack of command/apparent discomfort on the mound.

Or to put it another way ...

Kevin Cooney: "If you can't throw strikes with Bill Welke behind the plate doing an Enrico Palazzo impression, you've got problems."

Well, he can't be missing by much. Gameday had him throwing 5 straight strikes to the #8 hitter.

That's not entirely true, Fatal.

He had his lowest single-season FLDG% in 2011 (at 3B), and his advanced numbers didn't bear out his being a "stellar defensive 3B that year" (as much as you can advanced defensive metrics), although he was definitely above average by their reckoning.

On offense, he had a higher LD% than any year other than 2005, and the lowest ISO any year before or since, and the highest BB% of his career. All these things should have led to improved offensive statistics, and yet his BABIP was sub-.300 (lowest of any year in his career to that point).

Of course the reduced ISO shouldn't have meant better numbers. Rather, that seems to be an indication that his injuries slowed him down even more.

Freddy Galvis: 2 HR this season.

Ben Revere: 1 HR never.

As I said, great decision to start Galvis in LF.

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