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Monday, April 29, 2013

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I also believe that Chooch, upon his return to the clubhouse, laid hands on Ryan Howard and healed him.

Did Chooch lay hands on Saint Utley at the beginning of spring training?

Just as big as the Galvis-to-Utley gap last year. Enjoy the bench, Kratz.

With Chooch back and the DH:

Rollins
Utley
Young(DH)
Howard
Chooch
DOM
Nixberry
Galvis(3B)
Revere

Just as big as the Galvis-to-Utley gap last year. Enjoy the bench, Kratz.

Posted by: Iceman | Monday, April 29, 2013 at 01:10 PM

Honestly, he probably will. Bench at MLB level pays more than starting at AAA.

Better to serve in Heaven than rule in Hell, I guess.

lorecore, the other Young might be part of the mix.

I'll be shocked if Michael Young is the DH. Charlie says he's a regular 3B, so 3B he will play every day.

Based on UCs track record I expect Young at 3B and Galvis at DH

Repost:

Fatti, so you think it's OK to just toss out the games in a season that don't fit with your narrative?

Really?

Let's try this:

In Fatti-World, Tony Gwynn hit .400 in 1994. Really.

Let's use Fatti's own sentence:


"Coming into [May 15th], he had a line of .408 .450 .600 (1.050 OPS). [Then] He ... struggled until [May 26th] (.275 .383 .375, .758 OPS), but from [May 27th] until the end of the year, he had the following line:
.401 .464 .576 (1.040 OPS)."


So, in Fatti-World, where someone is allowed to eliminate the games and PA that become problematic to his argument, Tony Gwynn actually hit .403 in 1994, if you eliminate the 37 AB from May 16th to May 26th.

Hey, if you can do it with 2010 Ryan Howard, why not 1994 Tony Gwynn, no?

Oh man. This argument is soiling the Chooch thread?

This Howard argument is descending (ascending?) into parody.

awh, WTF are you talking about? You claimed that 2010 was an injury plagued season that should be thrown away when evaluating who Howard is going forward. I showed that in 2010 from the beginning of the year until his ankle injury on August 1st, he was a very good hitter. And from August 31st to the end of September, he was an EXCELLENT hitter. So, the only part of the season where the injury affected him was obviously the time he missed, and possibly the 10 days after his return.

Since time missed doesn't affect rate stats, and a 10 day slump might have been injury related or might have just been a random 10 day slump, I fail to see why we should throw out his 2010 season when evaluating him as a player.

But it's cute that you found that Tony Gwynn stuff to refute a point I never made.

I'm kind of disappointed. Here I had figured Chooch's return would magically fix Hamels' command issues, & give Doc his Cutter back. 0-1 so far ...

I disagree with the stance that once the offense started to click the pitching came around, that THAT was the perfect time for Chooch to return.

It would seem to me that his return would have been more perfect had it occurred DURING a pitching and/or hitting malaise.

Fatti-World:

What a terrible sounding place. Unless you've had about 8 beers.

Just so I get this right...

If we lose tomorrow, we have 15 losses in April and no chance of making the playoffs.

If we win tomorrow, we finish April with 14 losses and our playoff chances (while remote) are still alive.

Is that about right? It could all be over tomorrow?

Cyclic: thats my stance.

Fata, Gelb wrote this headline on Friday:

"Could Delmon DH next week? Probably not"

So I doubt it.

On the other hand, I'm not really sure what the Phillies think of D. Young. They think he's up to the job of RF'er. (but) They won't give him the job unless he shows he is. (but) They expect him to be their starting RF.


This is from a week ago, but I liked it. It's from a CBS sports blog by Mike Axisa:

Amaro has been running the Phillies since November 2008, so he's not new to the job, and he's had a lot of success over the years. That said, he signed Young to a guaranteed one-year contract this offseason. The poor defense shouldn't be a surprise to him.

Young has played in parts of seven big league seasons now, and the various defensive metrics all rate him as extremely poor in the field (career stats):

Total Zone: -61
UZR: -54.3
FRAA: -41.7
DRS: -39

Those stats measure runs saved on defense, or in Young's case, runs he's cost his teams over the years. Those are awful defensive scores; even the best one (DRS) is well below average. Yes, defensive statistics are a work in progress and not 100 percent accurate, but they work very well directionally over large sample sizes. Young is an awful defender, and chances are you're well aware of that if you've seen him play at any point since he broke into the league.

Maybe Amaro misspoke, but it seems incredibly weird for an NL GM to say "if he can't play defense he can't play in the National League" after signing the guy. Perhaps the Phillies have lower defensive standards or maybe their own internal evaluations say Young is a competent outfielder, but I find that hard to believe. It's been obvious he's bad in the field for years now. Signing a player and then ragging on his defense before he even plays a game for you sure is a head-scratcher.


http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/eye-on-baseball/22115932/phillies-gm-ruben-amaro-jr-questions-delmon-youngs-defense

and again, the 2001 A's defied the 15 April losses mark by going 55-11 after the deadline. If the Phils can do 55-11 after the break, then there's still a chance.

Tuesday May 30th, 2013.

Lorecore day.

sorry,

Tuesday April 30th, 2013

Lorecore Day

It would make a lot more sense to give Utley a bit of a rest, allow him to DH and put Galvis in at 2B.

wills: good point.

lorecore, I'll take a 55-11 run at any point during the season.

GBrettfan: As I've mentioned previously, I don't buy r00b's "if he can't play defense he can't play in the National League" line for one second. However, it does seem kind of odd that the Phillies wouldn't even consider using Delmon as a DH. Does the FO really believe that a couple more weeks in the Minors will reverse a lifetime's worth of poor defense?

It was fun to bash the New Yorkers this weekend. But please remember, the Mets are awful. Any projection of how good the Phillies are or will be should be tempered by who they were competing against.

That goes for the Indians and Marlins next on the schedule.

It's nice to see Chooch again. But red flags are flying. He's 34, his prior season was juiced by drugs that increase concentration and confidence, and he's in a contract year. Will he respond with a superior performance or wilt like Victorino did last season?

I think the Phillies are an average team. They should let Chooch, Doc and Utley walk at year's end, or trade them now. They should trade Cliff and Jimmy (insert Freddie Galvis here) at the deadline and try to unload Papelbon, too.

Build around Hamels, Morgan, Biddle, KK, Tommy Joseph and Dom Brown.

The window of opportunity has closed on this group. Let's move on.

Oh, it will be fun to watch Sandburg manage this new bunch in 2014.

awh is the only poster on Beerleaguer who could: (a) make an argument that we should throw out all 620 PAs of Howard's 2010 season because of an injury which happened on August 1; and (b) scream "small sample size" when a poster presents stats to show what happened after August 1. I don't even think clout or phlipper could pull that off.

I would bet Howard probably gets a DH spot one day with Young moving to first and Galvis playing third.

Unless something changes, why are we building around Brown, again?

There are a multitude of problems with taking the full-on firesale approach. High on the list is how it will lead to an offense even worse than we have now. Secondarily, we'll see attendance become Marlins-esque, which is pretty important, pre-TV-deal.

If you want to say that 2014 is a lost cause in April of 2013, that's fine, but teams who do that don't get attendance in either 2013 or 2014.

"Oh, it will be fun to watch Sandburg manage this new bunch in 2014."

Yeah watching a 70-75 win team will be lots of fun.

As for April, I am quite tired of looking at Papelbon who is the 'April picture' for the Season Ticket Holder wall calendar. On to May and Chooch!

Fata: This argument with awh makes you appreciate discussing things with me huh?

TTI: I don't think Young will get moved to 1st, per the same reasons as before.

More likely we see JMJ there, with Revere moving back to CF. Or Frandsen, with JMJ still in CF.


I would bet Howard probably gets a DH spot one day with Young moving to first and Galvis playing third.

Posted by: The Truth Injection | Monday, April 29, 2013 at 01:45 PM


IMO it's more likely that if Howard DH's one day then Frandsen plays first.

TTI, absolutely. And that's saying something... :)

Unless something changes, why are we building around Brown, again?

I don't think they should. It's just that his trade value is at its lowest point, so the best they can do is hold on to him and give him 500+ PA this year to see who he is.

If they continue to play just below .500 baseball, I wouldn't do an all-out firesale either. This isn't the Rays or some other low budget team. Trade guys who don't have a future with the club or guys who shouldn't be a part of what's likely to be a .500 team for a couple of years (Papelbon, Adams, Ruiz, Youngs, Rollins, Halladay or Lee).

If this team is not good - as much as it stinks - Ruiz is the perfect guy to trade. Plays a premium position, great contract, coming off career year, and he's a 34-year old catcher.

The Toledo Mud Hens just won the internet with their May 4th promotion.

Unless something changes, why are we building around Brown, again?

You want we should build around Tyson Gilles?

If you're building around anyone right now, it's Biddle.

Edmundo: That's a false choice, unless you're looking to build a minor league team ... in which case Brown is definitely the way to go.

"awh is the only poster on Beerleaguer who could: (a) make an argument that we should throw out all 620 PAs of Howard's 2010 season ..."


bap, again, I never posted that. You do, indeed, have reading comprehension problems.

awh: Whatever, man. You take yourself, and Beerleaguer, WAY too seriously.

Notable guys under contract/team control in 2016: Hamels, Lee, Howard, Papelbon (option), Revere, Brown, Galvis

2015 would add an Adams option and Bastardo's last arb year.

They're building around 2 SP, Howard, and a closer. I'd trade the relief guys when their value peaks, dump Howard, extend Utley, and pick between Lee and Doc (trade the other).

Rollins has 2 years left. Would probably wait til next deadline to move him, depending on how they're playing. This is Ruiz walk year and he's 34. Perfect trade candidate if they're not playing well.

Hope they're not building around a guy with 31 IP in AA. He fits the current strategy perfectly, though. Can fill in for Doc/Lee next to Hamels when the time comes hopefully.

The Indians bat Reynolds and Santana 6th-7th? WTF is francona doing?

bap: cue the "i was just joking" excuse he's played a number of times.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/04/29/the-toledo-mud-hens-are-going-to-wear-chewbacca-jerseys-ok/

They will be playing the Charlotte Knights (per MLB.com), and I sincerely hope they try to one-up the Hens with bats painted like light sabers.

It's the only classy thing to do, clearly.

Naah, bap, I'm just having fun annoying Fatti on a rainy day.

Staff ace? Hello?! How come I never get mentioned as a guy with any trade value. Look and behold at my changeup which keeps LH hitters at bay.

I wouldn't build around Biddle any more than the Phils built around Kyle Drabek. Doesn't matter cos he's not going anywhere. Phils should focus on finding young position players to play alongside Utley, Hamels, and some of the young dudes they currently have (Galvis, Brown, Revere). They have enough veteran talent on the roster to get some top 100 guys if they continue to play .475 baseball.

"IMO it's more likely that if Howard DH's one day then Frandsen plays first."


Mike, why would they DH Howard? He sucks and has no value because he no longer has elite power. I have been told so on BL.

They should just release him.

Sophist: isn't Lee's '16 year a club option?

Sophist, he's their number 1 prospect, and they're not exactly swimming in major prospects right now. They're building around him (and, of course the guys under contract whom they don't want to, or can't, move) pretty much by default.

Kendrick is pitching great, only $4.5M left on the deal, and another arb year after this year. Could be Amaro's best signing.

Every team needs pitching, and he's so cheap I wouldn't move him. Wait a year on Kendrick unless you think they have no shot next year and his trade value will only drop. They'd be struggling to field 5 starters if they moved him and Doc or Lee.

Building around a player who only takes the field once every 4-5 days is never a good idea. The Phillies need to start from scratch, drafting/trading for, & then developing, position players.

Only a moron would DH Young in order to get Galvis' bat in the lineup.

Honestly, "building around" a player doesn't really make sense. They need young position players, like Sophist said. have to find them, and if you have one in the system, you obviously don't move him.

Fata - What do you mean by "they are building around him?" Maybe I just don't understand what you mean.

Shane - Yes. $27.5M or a $12.5M buyout.

Gtown - I agree to some extent, but I do like the idea of having two reliable near-ace SP (not three) and then filling the rotation with a cheaper veteran type (Blanton-like or Kendrick) and flyers and AAA young dudes. And Hamels is under contract for a long time.

Biddle has all of 31 IP in AAA. They're developing him, and clearly have no reason - like Drabek - to move him. Not sure what it would mean to 'build around' such a player. He'll find his way into a low-stress role in the rotation soon enough (think Worley, Kendrick, Pettibone, even Hamels).

Only a moron would DH Young in order to get Galvis' bat in the lineup.

Posted by: clout | Monday, April 29, 2013 at 02:22 PM

I think the idea was to get Galvis' GLOVE onto the field.

Speaking of positional prospects - Maikel Franco is doing well so far in Clearwater.

.296/.349/.561 with 5 homers in 106 PAs. And he's only 20 years old.

GTown, the problem is they have traded away many of the position players that might have helped them, and there doesn't seem to be anyone close to being ready, unless you want to count Asche, Castro, Hernandez or Joseph. Tehn, there is Ruf, but he's not exactly young.

Indians offense are more feast/famine then the Phillies this year.

Both teams have scored 3 or less runs 14 times this year, while the Phillies have scored 8 more 4 times to the Indians 5, including a 13 and 19 run outburst.

If only a moron would put Galvis's bat at 3rd, what would you call someone who put him out in LF?

So, according to lorecore, the playoffs rest upon the Phillies ability to beat the Indians tomorrow.

This reminds me of 2007 and 2008 when prominent members of the Moronocracy through 90% of the season declared that there was no possible way the Phillies could win the division, they would only make the playoffs if they were the Wild Card.

Those who said the opposite was jeered, shouted down and mocked.

"I think the idea was to get Galvis' GLOVE onto the field."

Getting Galvis's glove onto the field is not necessarily a bad idea. The part Cholly doesn't seem to grasp, though, is that it's a good idea only if you get his glove onto the field at a position where it has a high likelihood of making an impact. Like 2nd base, shortstop, or -- at least in the Phillies' specific situation -- 3rd base.

Fatalotti: Right, because any NL manager facing a DH game would think that adding a glove at 3B is far better than adding a good bat.

Wow. Just wow.

jbird: Moron squared.

Clout, didn't say I necessarily agreed with it. Just pointing out, that getting his glove into the game was probably the motive, not his bat.

clout: "Only a moron would DH Young in order to get Galvis' bat in the lineup."

What choice of Mayberry/Frandsen/Kratz/Carerra vs a RH Starter gives you enough offense to play instead of Freddy Galvis' glove?

Also, if Revere is still out for this 2 game swing, then Nix and Mayberry are starting, along with Brown, and since we can't assume that DYoung will be DH'ing these games (per the link from GBrettfan), then you have to insert either Galvis or Frandsen's bat into the lineup.

So, if your lineup will include Galvis/Frandsen AND Young either way, then yeah, you probably should DH Young, and let Galvis play the field in his stead, since Frandsen can't hit RHP, anyhow.

awh - That's why you'd trade off all these older vets, who are playing decently and play premium positions, to get back some young minor leaguers. They're not stuck with the farm they have.

If Revere is starting, then you'd keep Young at 3B, and DH Nix, in my opinion.

"Fatti-World:

What a terrible sounding place. Unless you've had about 8 beers.

Posted by: Five-4-One | Monday, April 29, 2013 at 01:26 PM "

541, here you go:

http://images1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20060828001938/wikiality/images/a/ac/Fat_people.jpg


http://ls1tech.com/forums/attachments/racers-lounge/344923d1331868132-ls1tech-party-fatty2.jpg


Galvis' glove is great. The advantage of Galvis' glove over any of our regular starters' glove over the course of a single game is marginal-at-best.

Our bench is mediocre. The advantage of one of our bench bats over Galvis' bat over the course of a single game is marginal-at-best.

Sounds like the advantage, for a single game, either way is marginal-at-best. That being the case, our offense has slumped more than our defense (albeit that's been bad at times too), so I'd take the extra offensive output than defensive.

That said, if it's a righty versus Frandsen, then... Maybe Kratz becomes the DH?

lorecore: Admittedly a dreadful selection, but I'd go Mayberry with Nix at DH. Mayberry is an upgrade on defense over Nix that more than compensates for the yawning gap between Galvis bat and most everyone else.

Although you're sycophants of Jack, please don't tell me that you and Fatalotti also think 3B is the most important defensive position on the field.

clout, what if Revere isn't starting, and Nix and Mayberry are already in the OF?

clout: Yes, losing to the Indians, in combination to losing 14 other games this month fits my predictive query that this team will not make the playoffs. I would say I'm glad you disagree, but as always, you haven't said anything one way or the other.

Freddy Galvis currently has the 8th highest ops on the team.

Ehhh... Suddenly the class quotient of the room dropped a few points.

BAP: Galvis glove has its best value at SS, somewhat less value at 2B and way less value at 3B and LF.

If your plan is to build around Dom Brown, just what is it you're building?

Franco is a good prospect. I wouldn't be surprised to see him as the Phils' #2 prospect after this season, and appearing at the end of top 100 lists.

Scroll down to where it says "Starter or Substitute" and click where it says "as Sub".

That will give you the list of every team in the NL and how they are ranked.

Does 3rd base have to be the most important position on the field in order for an upgrade from a well below average defensive player, to a well above average defensive player, to be significant?

While that question answers itself, I will say this: I'm unconvinced that Freddy Galvis is a well above average defensive 3rd baseman. He has barely played the position & his arm strength is the only area of his defense that is less-than-stellar. As I said long ago, the best defensive alignment would be Rollins at 3rd and Galvis at SS, as there's no question Rollins has the arm for 3rd. But the time to try that alignment was in spring training. Since they didn't, I wouldn't expect them to try it now.

lorecore: I'm sorry, I guess I wasn't clear enough for you.

I think your assertion that the Phillies chances for making the playoffs hinges on beating the Indians tomorrow night is arguably the most moronic statement ever made by one of the least knowledgable posters on the board.

awh: Sure, but that's boosted by our ridiculous PH efficacy. I'm not saying that'll drop, but it's not the same thing as saying that our substitutes are anything to write home about as far as being rounded players, just that they're great at being substitutes.

Sure, that's important, but it doesn't mean the gloves of our subs - especially in a single game - are worth the offensive downgrade. Nor that the bats of our subs are worth the defensive downgrade.

If your plan is to build around Dom Brown, just what is it you're building?

False hope?


Phillibuster: I'm on board w/ your 2.40PM post.

jbird: I can top that. Yuniesky Betancourt has the 4th best OPS on the Brewers.

lorecore - One question I'd have is how many of those 15 loss teams would have made a 1-game playoff in the counterfactual world where this 2nd WC had existed for the last 25 years (or whatever).

Clout bringing out the guns today, energizing this board. Love it.

"If your plan is to build around Dom Brown, just what is it you're building?"


clout, I'll take a stab at it: a mediocre baseball team.


Let's face it: Howard and Utley have been the centerpieces of this lineup since 2006. We also need to face this truth: The Phillies got lucky with Howard. He was a 5th Round pick.

What are the chances they get THAT lucky again?

clout: Glad to have your stamp of approval. Good luck to Mayberry vs the RHP tomorrow.. I'
m sure he'll make you proud.

fatalotti: "clout, what if Revere isn't starting, and Nix and Mayberry are already in the OF?"

Well, now we're going from desperate to in extremis.

Gun to head, I guess I'd pick Kratz.

BAP: "As I said long ago, the best defensive alignment would be Rollins at 3rd and Galvis at SS, as there's no question Rollins has the arm for 3rd."

I totally agree with this.

lorecore: Thanks. I'll settle for less disgusting at bat than Galvis.

clout, you act like I'm pulling Revere not starting out of thin air. He didn't start this whole weekend, and I wouldn't be surprised if he can't start the next 2 games.

And I don't think Kratz bat is as much of an upgrade over Gavlis' glove in the field.

Jack: "Franco is a good prospect. I wouldn't be surprised to see him as the Phils' #2 prospect after this season, and appearing at the end of top 100 lists."

I totally agree with this.

Also, if you incorporate all of MLB instead of just the NL, you'll see that Cleveland and Seattle both post higher than the Phillies.

Fewer PAs, yes. But take out Nix and Howard (presumably both starting, in this situation) and suddenly our subs look...

.275/.300/.525

Admittedly, still the best OPS in the NL, but that's a pretty low bar.

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