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Saturday, March 16, 2013

Comments

Dragon: "Also, who gives a fiddler's damn about the last bullpen spot. If Cook flops early-on then there are plenty of other options."

What makes you think this team can just give up a few games early on and not be affected?

"What makes you think this team can just give up a few games early on and not be affected?"

Agreed. Those 2 or 3 extra losses could easily be the difference between 3rd and 4th place.

Can't Team USA just keep him somehow? Tired of the popups and pop flys. Charlie had better not slot him to lead off all season with a guy like Revere here.

Yeah, I hope Team USA keeps one of our best players too. He makes outs!

There isn't one minor league starter this team wants to take a look at instead of throwing out a string of relievers?

Yeah Todd, you're right. What the hell would the Phillies want with a player who had 4.9 fWAR last year, a 101 wRC+ and was considered the second best baserunner in the majors, behind only Mike Trout?

I mean Christ dude, he hits some pop-ups...big deal. They're pretty much the same as strikeouts. Whatever. He had the 24th highest fWAR last year, and 15th in the NL.

He had the 2nd highest fWAR among shortstops in all of baseball. The guy is coming off 2 straight years where he's accumulated 8.8 fWAR, and you want to GET RID OF HIM?

Get lost.

Best part of BL is when someone like Todd comes on here and gives a stupid opinion, within 10-15 minutes he's dismantled by someone and told to scram.

I've had my fair share of disagreements with people here, but pretty much every regular here gives arguments grounded in fact. Most other sites, it's impossible to wade through people like Todd.

Usually when someone posts something that ridiculous it's an emotional response during a game thread. While that too is idiotic it is somewhat understandable. But on a Saturday morning in March to slag him is pretty (T)odd. I know he can be frustrating at times, but this team without Jimmy Rollins would suffer tremendously.

Fatti, it's called "recency bias".

Todd is influenced by a player's last at bat, as opposed to looking at his entire body of work.

This same recency bias pervades peoples' evaluation of sports teams.

For instance, all of the pundits, and many posters here, are heavily influenced by the performance of the 2012 Phillies when evaluating and projecting the record of the 2013 Phillies.

Sure, they acknowledge that HHU were out for half the season, and playing hurt even when they were on the field. Worley got hurt. Lee missed time. Sure, Wiggy and Galvis and minimart got a lot of playing time, and Pence and Vic were traded, and they acknowledge all that. But they still overemphasize the bad as opposed to the upside.

If HHU stay healthy, and if the starting pitching holds up, this team could make the playoffs.

They could also have injuries and players could miss time which would mean another .500 season.

But, even with the issues they do have, on paper, at least, they should be better than a .500 team.

How much better remains to be seen.

I have no problem whatsoever if Jimmy Rollins' high pop-up rate annoys the hell out of you. It bugs me all the time when he swings at a bad pitch and weakly pops it up to 2nd base.

But to focus on that flaw in his game, while ignoring the fact that he still has tremendous power for a SS, he's still a league average hitter (which is a big deal coming from the SS position) and he's still an excellent baserunner and good defender who adds great value to your team.

That's just foolish and ignorant to the nth degree.

"If HHU stay healthy, and if the starting pitching holds up, this team could make the playoffs."

Or, as I strongly suspect, we could find out that a healthy HHU look suspiciously similar to the 2012 versions of HHU, only one year older &, hence, a little bit worse.

DOM-inant!

Once clout Day hits, I will begin, in earnest, my "Jermaine Mitchell should make the team" campaign.

Apparently Dom just hit a bomb!

Jermaine Mitchell making a case for himself. I think I'd rather have him than Enciarte to be honest.

J Mitch was a player I said keep an eye on. He's done well. Shame we couldn't get rid of nix. He's def stealing a spot on roster.

"Or, as I strongly suspect, we could find out that a healthy HHU look suspiciously similar to the 2012 versions of HHU, only one year older &, hence, a little bit worse."

Yes, it's totally possible that a healthy Utley and Howard will miss 170 games between them, and Ryan Howard will be a little bit worse than a -1.2 WAR because he's one year older.

Mike Adams is straight dealing this spring.

Does J. Mitchell have an out clause? If not, there is no reason for Phillies to promote him to the Majors right away. He could play everyday at AA or rotate in at AAA (with Ruf, Gillies, Castro) to see if he should be the first callup depending on injuries. If the Phillies really like Inciarte, they could start with him in the majors then see if Dbacks want him back once D.Young returns. Could trade another reliever for Inciarte I suppose, but I just do not see him as anything more than an backup OF.

Fatalotti: can you now dismantle BAP for saying this?

Or, as I strongly suspect, we could find out that a healthy HHU look suspiciously similar to the 2012 versions of HHU, only one year older &, hence, a little bit worse.

Or, as I strongly suspect, we could find out that a healthy HHU look suspiciously similar to the 2012 versions of HHU, only one year older &, hence, a little bit worse.

Posted by: bay_area_phan | Saturday, March 16, 2013 at 12:44 PM

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Really, does this post suprise anybody?

In honor of BAP's love for old Triple A guys, I hereby deliver the scouting report on Jermaine Mitchell.

Mitchell was a toolsy 2006 5th rounder out of UNC-Greensboro and he was literally a man playing among boys in his first two seaasons, destroying the pitching in short-season low A and then A ball.

The next step was High A in the hitter friendly California League, still old for his league, but the gap was smaller. A funny thing happened. He discovered he couldn't these these more advanced pitchers. But he worked at it - for two and a half years - and finally hit well enough to graduate to Double A ball at age 25. He hit .223. But this time it took him only half a season to master the league and he graduated to a full season of Triple A at age 27 last year. His slash line: .252/.345/.386.

He enters his age 28 season still possessing the good speed and defense he's always had. His projectible power remains a flickering hope, but decent OB skills and a LH bat give him a bit of value at the plate.

His ceiling is probably 4th or 5th outfielder and he's got enough skills that he can help a bench even if he hits .250 with little power, which is probably what you'd get.

Looking back on this offseason and it is really too bad Ichiro didn't end up taking that 2 yr/$14M deal. The Phils had already made the Revere and M. Young trades and signed Lannan and Adams the day after Ichiro turned down the Phils offer.

I do wonder if the Phils would have been able to sign Adams if Ichiro had accepted their deal but Ichiro in RF and Brown in LF would have been nice on Opening Day. Could have built the lineup around speed and average with very good OF defense to boot.

Can Mitchell play CF?

Yes, I hate to be the one to break the news, but it is, indeed, possible that Ryan Howard is now a .718 OPS hitter & Roy Halladay is, indeed, an 89+ ERA pitcher.

MG: Yes he can and might even be better than average at the MLB level.

In BAPWorld, Howard's a .718 hitter, Ruf's a .986 hitter, Erik Kratz is a 30 HR hitter and Jermaine Mitchell is an All Star.

And BAP doubles down...

So far the following are things that BAP 'strongly suspects:'

-Howard is a .718 OPS hitter
-Halladay is now a below average starting pitcher
-Lannan, at age 28, will completely lose it and have an ERA around 5, getting booted from the rotation before the ASB
-Durbin will blow 'at least a dozen' games for the team
-Darin Ruf would put up a .850 OPS with 25HR if given full playing time

He's in midseason form. Looking forward to more of these 'strong suspicions' as we get closer to opening day.

clout: I never said that Kratz could be an All Star. I said that it was sheer insanity that he was stuck in AAA while Brian Schneider was starting. And, to be sure, I was absolutely adamant about this issue -- so adamant that I posted on the subject some 8 zillion times. But being adamant that a guy should be called up to be a BACKUP is a far cry from predicting that he will be an All Star.

Same goes with Jermaine Mitchell. If Ruf gets sent down (as seems likely), then that last spot on the roster is down to Inciarte, Orr, Bentancourt, or Mitchell. Orr and Betancourt are terrible (and aren't outfielders) & Inciarte has never played above A ball. Hence, I think it makes sense to give Mitchell a longer look than he has gotten & it may well make sense to give him that last roster spot. In other words, my views about Jermaine Mitchell are pretty much the same as the ones expressed in your 2:45 post.

Iceman: I got a strong suspicion BAP is chugging green been for St. Patrick's Day. Just started a day early.

TTI: You're right. This is clearly a 97-win team with no weaknesses. How could anyone think otherwise?

TTI: You're right. This is clearly a 97-win team with no weaknesses. How could anyone think otherwise?

Posted by: bay_area_phan | Saturday, March 16, 2013 at 03:45 PM

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Wow, talk about putting words in other peoples mouth.

bap, you're baking the poodle viv a vis your posts.

viv a bap !!

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