What is a (mostly) healthy Utley worth in free agency?

Chase Utley is entering the final season of a seven-year, $85 million contract he signed prior to 2007. Fangraphs’ WAR-to-salary tool has its flaws, but it says Utley was worth $160 million over the last six years, so it’s safe to say he vastly outperformed the team-friendly deal.

Let’s say Utley plays 130 games this season and hits around .280/.360/.470. How should the Phillies proceed? Letting him walk seems unfathomable, but this organization is in love with Freddy Galvis. Hopefully the temptation to play Galvis every day doesn’t cause the Phillies to undervalue Utley, as Galvis would be the eventual successor to Jimmy Rollins anyway.

What kind of contract do the Phillies offer Utley? He already took a hometown discount and it allowed the Phillies to put together the best run in franchise history. He can’t be expected to take a whole lot less to stay in Philly if he’s getting better offers, especially from AL teams.

That is the worry. Let’s say a mostly-healthy, 35-year-old Utley is worth $12 million per year on the open market. A reasonable offer from the Phillies would be two years, $24 million with a club or vesting option for the third year. But what would stop a team like the Athletics or Red Sox from offering Utley that same AAV over three years with the intention of DH-ing him a lot to save his knees and eventually moving him to first base? That future best fits Utley and can only be possible in the American League. If the AL team is offering more money, it becomes a very difficult decision for Utley and the Phillies.

Personally, I view Utley the way I view Tim Duncan. Tim Duncan is a Spur. Chase Utley is a Phillie. The personality of the Phillies has been created by Utley the way the personality of the Spurs was created by Duncan. When Duncan’s contract expired last season, he laughed off questions and essentially said “I’m not going anywhere ... we’ll figure something out.”

But anything can happen, especially if the Phillies miss the playoffs and a contender comes calling.

Put yourself in Ruben Amaro’s shoes for a minute. What is the most you’d be willing to offer Utley, in dollars and years, if he plays 130 games and hits .280/.360/.470?

Comments

[Sophist]

I'd rather not think about this.

Hopefully, he comes out healthy and productive (.820+ OPS). Amaro makes a good risk/reward move and extends him mid-season.

[lorecore]

If the Phillies think they would be suitors for Utley in FA, then they should be talking extension right now.

I dont know if the Phillies should/shouldn't be suitors for Utley in FA, but they can save some $$ and years if they are interested.

[Fatalotti]

Well, there's a chance the DH comes to the NL by 2014 (remember how quickly adding the 2nd WC and league restructuring happened), so maybe Utley sticks around here as a DH.

[fumphis]

MG's really essential tic is how he sprinkles in extraneous relative clauses using "guy." He memorably once took this habit to its apotheosis as follows:

"Ditto [Revere]'s % BB. It might improve a bit but he is never going to be a guy that is even a guy who is league average in BBs.

Posted by: MG | Thursday, February 14, 2013 at 07:23 PM

[Jack]

Same deal as was given Rollins. 3 years, $30-33 million.

[bay_area_phan]

I sure don't see Utley hitting .280 but, if he does, I would expect his OBP to be more like .380 or .390 than .360.

As for the question presented: it is unanswerable on March 20. It completely depends on how the Phillies do this year.

[The Truth Injection]

BAP: one thing on MG day to add. Immediately after writing a post you must fire up three more posts that deal with th same topic. One of those should begin with, "counterpoint."

Also, TTI day is funny. And being an English teacher I've given writing assignments similar to that where students have to build a convincing argument about something that was clearly wrong.

[lorecore]

Tim Duncan is making $20M/yr

[lorecore]

tti: curious, are you sitting in front of your class right now while you type on beerleaguer?

[Fatalotti]

Also, TTI day is funny. And being an English teacher I've given writing assignments similar to that where students have to build a convincing argument about something that was clearly wrong.

Posted by: The Truth Injection | Wednesday, March 20, 2013 at 12:28 PM

That's a really great assignment. Love polemics.

Also, hey Sophist. We've missed you.

[rolo]

"Hamels isn't the better pitcher BECAUSE his team's W-L was better than Lannan."

lorecore, who ever claimed that?

[HandNik]

Anyone else worried about his BA in Spring Training? I know it's mostly meaningless, but if he can't hit for average and has lost power, why keep him?

[Eric_Lindros]

A lot of Utley's value is tied to him being a second baseman. Part of that is because he's an excellent defender, but another part of it is that as a DH/1B he's not particularly above average. A 35-year old DH/1B with an 830 OPS is above average, not not massively so. A 2B with an 830 OPS and very good defense is an absolute star.

[ColonelTom]

Utley's knees will be pretty much uninsurable, which will cut into his FA value. I'm seeing Carlos Beltran (another guy with suspect knees) as a comp - Beltran's current deal with the Cards is 2 years, $26M. Utley probably gets a third-year vesting option like J-Roll's with that AAV.

As BAP says, though, whether that deal makes sense for the Phils depends on how the team does this year.

[Fatalotti]

Speaking of knees and insurance, I know it's not the Phillies, but who in their right mind actually insured Andrew Bynum's contract this past year?

And how much were the premiums???

[lorecore]

rolo: The Phillies were 11-10 in Joe Blanton's starts last year. They were 12-18 in Lee's.

I have a strong suspicion that there is nothing I could possibly say/show you that will keep you from posting about how a team's W-L when a pitcher started is a stat worth knowing, so for the sake of others I'll give up.

[Jack]

"A 35-year old DH/1B with an 830 OPS is above average, not not massively so."

We will also already be paying $25 million for one of those.

[rolo]

Fatti, this is NOT a Sixers blog.

[J.R. King]

If Utley can stay healthy, I think we can assume he will maintain his consistently high OBP. But I'm curious what his power will look like.

2005-2009: .535 SLG
2010: .445
2011: .425
2012: .419

[Five-4-One]

Fat, I think the league insures the top 2 salaries of every team in the NBA. That being said, I would think that these policies are underwritten at a group level rather than an individual one.

[Fatalotti]

rolo, sorry to offend you. I fully and completely retract my comment regarding Andrew Bynum's contract being insured despite persistent knee problems, as it in no way relates to a Phillies player with knee problems in whom the Phillies might be considering offering a contract extension.

[Phillibuster]

Hand: I don't think people are seriously considering it, no. In part this is because it's ST, but let's also not forget that he's only playing in half the games (often missing one right after starting another) and not staying in for the full 9 innings in any of them.

Also, he's supplementing his .227 BA with a .358(!) OBP, indicating he's probably not lost his pitch selectivity/recognition. Since he hasn't been an over-.300 BA player since 2007, that's far more important to me (high SLG too, but I don't think we can draw as many conclusions from that as from his propensity for BBs).

[bay_area_phan]

Kid in Truth Injection's English Class:

"Professor Injection, I have a question about the scene where Dimmesdale climbs the scaffold to join Hester and Pearl, and sees the meteor trace the letter 'A' in the sky --"

Truth Injection: "Hang on a second, kid. MG just wrote a ridiculous post on Beerleaguer that I need to respond to."

[Fatalotti]

JR, it's better to look at ISO, instead of slugging, to look for trends in power.

Utley's BA has been in decline for the past few years (inn combination with his STEEP decline in BAbip), which has been the main contribution in his SLG decline.

This is not to say that his ISO has remained constant, and has been in decline, just to point out that ISO is the better metric to look at.

[Phillibuster]

J.R. King: Are you looking at ST stats, or regular season ones? Looking at Utley's player page, I see his 2011 and 2012 SLGs as .425 and .429, respectively.

The drop-off in 2010 is definitely a concern that his loss of power wasn't all due to his knees, but I also think they may have started bothering him before such time as he felt it necessary to miss half a season for them.

I would expect something in the .450-.485 range, I think - with the caveat that he stays healthy and this conditioning program continues to work as well as it seemingly has.

[Fatalotti]

541: I didn't know that about the NBA insurance policy. I steer clear of trying to understand anything the NBA CBA, as it may just be the most confusing document in Western literature.

[ColonelTom]

541 - I believe MLB teams have individual insurance policies on players' contracts. Team Scotti Insurance brokered the insurance on A-Rod's contract, for example:

http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/8708864/alex-rodriguez-contract-new-york-yankees-insured-most-114m-source-says

[LeeJPC]

"...as Galvis would be the eventual successor to Jimmy Rollins anyway."

I think Roman Quinn might have a little something to say about who succeeds JRoll at short

[Phillibuster]

BAP: I won't lie. I, too, work in education, and am 'stealthily' reading/writing posts from my desk.

My responses generally move closer to the "Did you try looking it up yet?" variety.

[Jack]

I think .450 is near the high end for Utley's slugging at this point, given his physical decline and the declining power in baseball generally.

A line of .275/.375/.450 over 135 games with typical defense and baserunning would make Utley one of the top 5 second baseman in baseball, again.

[NEPP]

The two top 2B on the market next year will be Robinson Cano and Chase Utley. After that, there's a massive dropoff.

Thus, his value on the open market will be inflated quite a bit.

[Fatalotti]

TTI has kids in his class diagram MG's posts to teach what bad grammar and incorrect syntax look like.

The kids in his class have never scored higher on the English/grammar sections of their aptitude tests.

[Lake Fred]

BAP, you gave me a good laugh!

[rolo]

If Utley plays 130 games in 2013 he'll do nicely in FA - performance ass-u-med.

In 2012, after he came back, Utley played in 83 of 86 games. If he's 'healthy' all season he'll probably play in more than 130 games. For one, he's the best position player on the team when he's healthy, and two, I harken back to Charlie's comment that if you tell Utley he has the day off he looks at you like you just killed his mother.

If he does play in 130+ games and put up Seidman's projected slash line, some team will give him at least a 2 year deal with possible option year(s).

AAV? Some here have cited JRoll's figure, but is Utley worth the same or more because he's the better player?

Additionally, what is Utley worth to the PHILLIES? By that I mean not just as a player but as a symbol of the team, sort of like Jeter's status with the Yankees.

The last 3 years Utley has put up a .263/.367/.433 slash line. Maybe .270/.375/.440 doable for him, and what would he command if he did hit that mark in 130+ games?

[ColonelTom]

Yep. Let's not forget that J-Roll is signed through 2015 if he stays healthy and the 2015 option vests.

[rolo]

"rolo, sorry to offend you."

Fatti, make sure it doesn't happen again.

[Fatalotti]

"rolo, sorry to offend you."

Fatti, make sure it doesn't happen again.

Posted by: rolo | Wednesday, March 20, 2013 at 12:53 PM

I do, but seem to repeatedly offend you anyhow.

How can I curtail this seemingly vicious assault on your moral sensibilities?

[Lake Fred]

I read where Chien-Ming Wang will throw for scouts today at the Yankees' minor league complex. We already have a Yuni on the team, shouldn't we also have a Wang, too?

Sorry, I couldn't resist. I'm sure that Professor Injection will give me a failing grade.

[rolo]

lake Fred, LOL!

[Cyclic]

Zolecki:

"Roy Halladay threw a bullpen session today in Clearwater.

The Phillies said it went well.

“Roy threw very well,” Rich Dubee said through a team spokesman. “He lost almost 10 pounds, so he’s just got to gain some weight back and get his strength.”

Halladay is scheduled to pitch in a Minor League spring training game Saturday in Clearwater. He would get one more start before he is scheduled to pitch April 3 against the Braves in Atlanta."

He's.... not dead?

[Fatalotti]

Cyclic, no he is.

Rich Dubee still thinks there's nothing to be worried about.

[NEPP]

Okay...so the velocity dip that was noticed 3-4 starts ago will now be blamed on the strength loss until probably late April.

Then they'll probably go with "dead arm" for a few weeks.

[MG]

The Scarlet Letter is one of the most insufferable novels to read because high school teachers try to pound into your head all of the BS symbolism that literary critics/professors have seemingly found over the years.

Probably not the most unpleasant novel that jr. high/high school students to read and analyze but it will be up there. Only books I loathed more were 'Ethan Frome' and 'Great Expectations' (one of Dickens' longest and crappiest novels).

As for Utley, why even worry about it until the end of the season. Too much possible variability to even speculate a rational guess. Those numbers (.830 OPS/130 games) seem pretty wildly optimistic though although I could see Utley get close to 130 games.

[Dylan Black]

Utley is worth more to the Phils than he will be to other clubs, much like Rollins was last year. How much he gets will depend entirely on his health and the numbers he puts up. I'm looking for a bounce back season where he'll average close to .500 SLG and be a big player in the Phils 2013 run.

[Muuurgh]

There should be a day where our writers pledge not to post the now-notorious thread-in-the-middle-of-a-game. My vote would be for the date of Doc's first start this year.

[rolo]

NEPP, it's a conspiracy. Halladay was injected by team doctors with the flu virus specifically to create a distraction to his poor outing against teh Tigers.

You're right. First it will be "dead arm", and then it will be "the flu weakened his core and blew up all the offseason conditioning he did".

By then they'll have thought of something else.

[MG]

Has Dubee turned into Baghdad Bob this spring?

[rolo]

Muuurgh, I second that.

[Iceman]

Minor league game, eh?

Is there a place laying odds on Halladay making his first start where I could bet my life savings against it?

[MG]

Dubee quote (in the spirit of Baghdad Bob):

"Diminshed velocity? Shoulder concerns? These are the rumors of the National League East infidels who are trying to spread false progranda regarding the glorious Halladay and the leader of their starting rotation, Doc Halladay.

Halladay has no health concerns and will be ready to break the bats and the wills of all the hitters that opppose him."

[Jack]

Even money Doc starts the year on the DL.

[Lynsk]

best was when the Yankees had both Wang and Johnson in their starting rotation.

[RedBurb]

So Dubee is the official MG whipping boy for 2013. This should be a fun year.

[Phillibuster]

I didn't realize we limited ourselves to a single one, RedBurb.

[J.R. King]

For Fatalotti:

Chase Utley's ISO

2005-2009: .234
2010: .169
2011: .166
2012: .173

[Lake Fred]

When BLers wield the whip, no Philly management type is free from criticism. I'd think that Cholly and Rube get whipped on BL more often than Dubee. Third base and hitting coaches also get whipped badly here, too.

[lorecore]

Jonah Keri is apparently trying his SABR skills in Vegas. After going 3-1 l last year, he offers 3 more bets in 2013:

UNDER 91.5 LAD
UNDER 89.5 NYY
UNDER 83.5 PHI

[lorecore]

86.5 NYY

[Corey Seidman]

Muuurgh -- There have been like 3 posts in the middle of the game. And, again, the only reason it's happened is because it's spring training.

Won't happen during the season unless something crazy happens, like a player tearing his Achilles running to first base or Michael Young making 10 plays without an error.

[lorecore]

I'm in favor of a new thread for every DOM HR

[Jack]

lorecore: If you read the article, I'm pretty sure Keri said he only actually bet the Dodgers. The Yanks and Phils bets he said he was tempted by, but there was enough upside to the Phils that it wasn't worth it.

[bay_area_phan]

If I were the gambling type, I'd be emptying the savings account to bet the under on "Yankees 86.5."

[Jack]

I propose a new thread in the middle of a game every time Charlie pinch hits Mini-Mart instead of a real, live hitter.

[Wes Chamberlain]

Official 2013 Beerleauger Whipping Boy(s):

In alphabetical order

Amaro, Ruben Jr. (He's smug, he didn't improve the offense, didn't get an adequate6th starter)

Catcher, Backup (general suckitude)

Dubee, Rich (lack of transparancy with injuries; condescending attitude toward writers)

Howard, Ryan (Ks too much; poor defense; contract is too big)

Lannan, John (the 5th starter pitches like a 5th starter, how dare he!)

Manuel, Charlie (he is an idiot; poor in game decisions; no idea how to use a bullpen)

Rollins, Jimmy (pops up too much; doesn't hustle out ground balls)

Young, Delmon (the 2nd worst human in the history of the world (Hitler, A just barely beat him out for the worst))

Young, Michael (defense sucks; not enough power to make up for sucky defense)

Honorable Mention:

The TV announcers (no reason needed)

Beerleaguer Writers Whose Initials are NOT JW (how dare you new writers not be Jason Weitzel)

[lorecore]

Jack: ah good point, I just browsed to see the 3 highlighted picks, didnt realize he only endorsed one.

[NEPP]

***There have been like 3 posts in the middle of the game. And, again, the only reason it's happened is because it's spring training.
***

Corey, remember when you were a kid and another kid (or older sibling perhaps?) would say something just to get a rise out of you?

Same scenario here...best advice is to just ignore the criticism as you can't please everyone...nor should you try too hard to do so.

Cheers!

[Iceman]

Keri took a lot of unnecessary flak for his 'blow up the Phillies' story (nothing really groundbreaking of controversial in the article) from Phans, but I think he's wrong on how down he is on the team as currently constituted. He made only three bets and Philly winning 83 or less is one of them?

He must be pretty sure they're going to completely bottom out. Looking at the rest of the O/Us, there are some situations that are lot less volatile than the Phillies' situation is.

[bay_area_phan]

"Young, Delmon (the 2nd worst human in the history of the world (Hitler, A just barely beat him out for the worst))"

Hitler did not get my vote. I voted for Delmon Young.

[Iceman]

Oh, never mind. I misread it the same as lorecore apparently.

[NEPP]

Hitler did not get my vote. I voted for Delmon Young.

Posted by: bay_area_phan | Wednesday, March 20, 2013 at 01:56 PM

Well, both are anti-semites but at least one of them built the Autobahn.

[bay_area_phan]

Hitler's only negative war was World War II. Delmon Young has done it 3 times.

[lorecore]

ha nice.

[MG]

I took the over on the 83.5 at -130 but Halladay's health status does make that bet dicey.

All things considered, I will still take the over but would have bet a bit less given that Halladay has all kinds of question marks.

[MG]

WP additions:

- Chad Durbin
- Laynce Nix
- JMJ

[Jack]

Iceman: I misread it the first time as well. The article needed some better editing, but I guess that's not on Keri.

[Jack]

I wouldn't touch that bet either, myself.

[rolo]

Iceman, don't you mean that there are some other situations that are a lot "more" volatile than the Phillies? Please clarify.

[rolo]

In case anyone missed it, Stark had a piece up on Halladay:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/spring2013/story/_/id/9070952/roy-halladay-philadelphia-phillies-hopes-make-next-start-saturday

[rolo]

Wow, Juan Pierre is ranked as a better player for 2013 than Domonic Brown:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9043879/ranking-top-500-major-league-baseball-players-2013-nos-401-500

Brown's at #497
Pierre - #494

Other Phillies:

Delmon Young - 476
John Lannan - 462

No other Phillies in the 401 - 500 range.

[bay_area_phan]

Joe Blanton -- 428

[Mike G]

Okay...so the velocity dip that was noticed 3-4 starts ago will now be blamed on the strength loss until probably late April.

Posted by: NEPP

How many starts has Halladay made this spring?

[Iceman]

Rolo- I meant that the situation regarding the Phillies is extremely volatile in regards to their win total. They could feasibly win 90+ or less than 80 depending on if injuries break their way. You could make either argument based on what they have on paper. Virtually all of their best players are also injury concerns and they have no firewall behind those players.

Some other teams (most others, actually) have a much narrower variance based on what they currently have on their rosters. The Phillies' situation is probably one of the most uncertain in the league. So why would Keri bet on it?

The answer is he didn't, apparently. Personally, I consider myself pretty optimistic, but even I wouldn't do what MG did and bet on this team one way or the other. We saw what could happen last year when virtually everything goes wrong, and the stuff swirling around Halladay is already very fishy. And if Halladay is done, so is the team.

[rolo]

Ice, thanks, I wasn't sure what you meant.

[rolo]

BTW, speaking of BL Whipping Boys, be thankful that Jeffrey Luria owns the Marlins and not the Phillies.

Did anyone else see where the Marlins are threatening to sue season ticket holders? They may have a case, legally, but talk about abject and utter tone-deafness when it come to fans. Sheesh.

[Jack]

The team could certainly still win 84 games without Halladay. I doubt it could win the division or make the playoffs, but they could get to 84.

But a whole lot else would have to go right.

[NEPP]

rolo...a link on that lawsuit? (super interested)

[clout]

The notion of replacing a healthy Utley with Freddy Galvis is interesting in the same way the head-on collision of two speeding locomotives is interesting.

Utley's OPS+ over the past 6 years has been 130. How large would the gap be compared to 6 years of Freddy Galvis? 35 points? 40? 50 or more?

[lorecore]

nepp: http://mlb.si.com/2013/03/20/miami-marlins-lawsuit-ticket-holders/

fav part of the article? the picture of the obstructing advertisement includes Ty Wigginton getting picked off 3rd.

[The Truth Injection]

You guys are funny. But I post on lunch or free periods.

I hope you weren't being ironic about liking that assignment Fata. It's actually one of the students favorite assignments. Usually I have them accompany the writing with a presentation in class for their point of view. Also, when I say something bad it is not allowed to be something like, "hitler was right..."

[Cyclic]

Or something like "Delmon Young was a good pickup..."

[Iceman]

TTI- don't lie. I know I have responded to some ridiculous MG posts at work while telling colleagues to 'wait a minute while I finish up this memo.'

[Jack]

Or something like "Chad Qualls should pitch the 8th inning because..."

[lorecore]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/FLO/FLO201209280.shtml

With 2 outs and Wigginton on second, Michael Martinez hits a ball up the middle. Wigginton tries to score from second, but doesn't realize the 2B actually stopped the ball from going into the OF and picks Wigginton off 3rd.

The Phillies lost this game despite Cliff Lee going 8ip 1er by 1 run due to the bullpen blowing the bottom of the ninth. This loss officially eliminated the Phillies from the playoffs.

[rolo]

NEPP, here's another:

http://extramustard.si.com/2013/03/19/miami-marlins-continue-mission-to-alienate-every-last-fan-of-team/?sct=uk_t2_a8

[Fatalotti]

TTI, no irony. You've read me enough on here. Sometimes I debate just for the sake of debate. I love those types of assignments. They make you think outside your preconceptions and force you to create rational arguments, and not just regurgitate stuff you've heard.

[rolo]

...link, that is.

[DPatrone]

LakeFred~ Great post! Hysterical. A Yuni & a Wang. Too bad we could get an Ah or Choo. The menu would have to change @ CBB. Just havng fun - don't mean to take any ethnic shots.

My 2 cents on Utley. Maybe he'd like to finish his career here, just like Jimmy. I know there's not a lot of loyalty left, but I don't think it's totally dead. After all Lee came back & didn't really want to leave.

Vic & Werth never wanted to leave either but you can't keep everybody.

[Iceman]

Speaking of MG, I see Zach Duke is apparently in line to be Washington's long man/6th starter. Didn't know that. If they get an injury or two in their rotation, the Braves could blow past them.

Btw, it flew under the radar last year, but Atlanta's deal to get Maholm was a great deal that is going to pay real dividends this year. It gave them rotation depth to add a pitcher to the deal for Upton, and he'll probably end up being the 2nd/3rd best pitcher in their rotation this year depending on how Hudson looks (he's been lousy this spring).

Personally, I think Atlanta has the lowest 'floor' of any of the NL East contenders. They have some depth to weather a couple of injuries seamlessly, and if stuff breaks the right way for them (Hudson not regressing, Uggla bouncing back, Simmons/Teheran breaking out), they could push 95-100 wins. I don't think they'll lose less than 90. If the Nats lose a starter or two, I think they could drop below that total.

[Iceman]

*dont think they'll win less than 90

[rolo]

"Sometimes I debate just for the sake of debate."

As if that's not obvious.....