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Saturday, March 30, 2013


Phillies spring training record 2008 12-18

***repost, last thread*** As many times as I've posted about the "scary" Braves, Will S. does make a good point when he states they will miss Prado, Chipper and Bourn. If Will did not add this I will -- if your rotation is anchored by Tim Hudson, well, it's no longer scary.

Factor in McCann coming off injury and the loss of Venters and I just bet the Phils and Braves are neck and neck all season. On a personal note I think BJ Upton is a self-centered whacko, and bro Justin is just not going to live up to his "potential” (why did AZ deal him, anyway??)", but take those observations with a grain of salt. And one more thing -- who is Kris Medlen anyway, and will he go 9-0 with a 0.97 ERA to start 2013?

As far as the Nationals go, all I can say is “who cares”? They are who they are. Harper is an arrogant creep with a big mouth – his “…that’s a clown question, bro…” - response to that sportswriter last year was totally classless and clueless. He better let his bat do the talking – a tall order for a 20-year-old that Fata’s already designed a shrine/ separate wing in Cooperstown for.

Harper’s brought a ton of pressure onto himself and his 20-year-old psyche. I hope his courage and patience are as big as his ego, because baseball is not an easy game, and does not suffer fools gladly. Finally, if the steroid-less Gonzales crashes back to earth, who ever rode a single ace pitcher to a WS title (besides the ’08 Phillies)?

On a more immediate note, Kendrick really cannot afford to pitch up in the zone like that shown today. If he continues with many more performances like this, he’s jettisoned the Phil’s season.

The analysis on this blog has gotten worse with each year. Rollins is leading off but your post suggests Revere is cemented in. Pay attention to what's been said. Think it's time for me to move on to another blog. A year too late. This is all about 5 clowns posting stats who don't have a grip on the game and don't read what's going on.

Todd- it sounds like you'd get along with the Phils' front office. Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

As expected the pitching will have to be the calling card for this team. Halladay is obviously a huge concern. If he is no longer an ace, the Phillies will need help from an unexpected place.

Nix is not a good OF. I still have some hope that Mayberry in platoon will be okay. Why Brown with a plus arm (and lefty thrower) is going to be in LF instead of RF makes no sense to me.

M. Young on defense will be an adventure but pale in comparison to D. Young in RF. I do hope Phillies drop Inciarte for someone else. Until Nix is on the bench I see a need for a Lefty Pinch Hitter. Not sure who that is.

Kendrick has looked crummy pretty much all spring compared to last spring. He hasn't been BB a lot of guys but his sinker has been up (it was again today) and he has had trouble with his cutter location.

KK is still essentially just a 3-pitch guy (sinker, cutter, changeup) and it wasn't good to see him struggle with his go-to pitch (sinker) much of this spring.

I know taking anything from 17 IP in spring is fraught with risk/bordering on a fool's errand but I do think KK is going to get out to a slow start in April.

I'm fine with Harper. The question posed to him WAS a clown question. He handled Hamels' a###### move in the absolute best way possible. Harper's a ball player's ball player. He may be a jerk or may not be, but he plays the game the absolute way I want it played.

Pre Season = Over.

Look forward to real baseball.

I think the Phils limiting factor this year is starting pitching depth.
Not real strong with KK @ #4, Lannan @ #5, but then it's no mans land for replacements when the injuries, dead arm periods, etc. happen.
At some point this year we are going to need a Worley-like saviour from AAA , and I don't like our odds.

Kendrick's cutter worked a few times today for strikes (can't recall on who) but the classic "old Kyle" reared his ugly head again today. Maybe Doc gives him a classic "beat-down", reminding him:

Eh', contract year Kendrick, no? BTW, I don't yet have a ring. I find the fact that you do extremely annoying!

and KK "smarten's up". One can only hope.

Ryan Sweeney cut.

Go get him and stop this Inciarte charade.

Edmundo, I couldn't agree more about Harper. He's quickly become one of my favorite non-Phillies players.

This spring definitely felt longer than most, Monday can't come soon enough.

The platoon would suggest Nix gets the start, but RFD has had very unusual success vs Hudson. He's the only RHP among Mayberry's most common opposing pitcher(17 PA), and he's 4-13, with 4 BB and 2 HR off of him.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him starting Opening Day.

And with one (re)post, cut_fastball gave me the biggest LOL I've had all day. Kudos.

TTI: So in addition to our bet that over whether the Phils will be closer to 4th than to 1st, we have a bet over whether they finish in the top half of the league in runs or the bottom half. Deal.

lorecore: In the post-game interview, Cholly said they will go over the matchups in deciding monday's lineup.

Any meaning to Delmon's 15 day DL being backdated to March 22nd? That would make him eligble for the home opener. He's suppossed to start playing OF in Clearwater on tuesday.

It's probably back dated to the furthest point permitted. Basically whrn he's ready we can bring him back and not worry about his DL time.

Capuano's supposed to be on the block. Would like him if a good deal can be made. Capuano's a legit 3 and would help this rotation immensely.

I don't like Enciarte making the roster, but it seems the Phils have decided part of the way they're restocking their farm is via Rule 5. At least this year, they're getting a real prospect, someone who, if everything breaks right in his development, could be an average major league centerfielder. Not Minimart, whose upside was a 0 WAR player, or Hrndon, whose upside was long man in the bullpen.

Now hopefully someone takes Rube and UC aside and tells them Inciarte can be DL'd for 3 months so they can get, you know, an actual MLB player on the Roster for that time.

Can we get a prediction post today? This is Beerleaguer, right?

Jack: a gentleman's bet it is good sir

Heather: Lannan has better career numbers than Capuano and Kendrick is basically equal at worst. Capuano is not a legitimate number three on this team and may not be better than what we already have. I wouldn't be jumping to trade assets for him- unless he comes at a ridiculously low price. Capuano to me is a perennial underachiever

TTI- I'm with to on Lannan, but the idea behind getting Capuano would be putting him in the bullpen and a long man (or lefty specialist) until an injury occurs. At that point, Capuano would be a huge upgrade over the likes of Cloyd. He will probably even be a upgrade over Horst in the bullpen.

Id offer to pay $4 million of his $5 million salary and throw a filler prospect at them. He shouldn't cost much more than that and he would help the team.

With you*

Logic is generally on a holiday around here but MG's post bears special mention.

Because KK had a good spring last season and a bad spring this season MG thinks he'll get off to a slow start this year.

If you know the answer to this question: "What kind of start did KK get off to after his great spring last year?" then you can see how ridiculous his post is.

Jack's bet is basically a bet on the health of Utley and Howard. If those two are healthy, there is zero chance that the Phillies will be in the bottom half of the league in runs scored.

Leaving aside cut's other not atypical inanities, Hamels in 08 (ERA+ 141) was unquestionably an ace.

Harper plays the game right; no arguments there, however he's certainly not one of my favorite non-Phillies.

My issue isn't with him. My issue is (as it usually is) with the media gushing over the kid. I don't believe it's appropriate to compare anyone to a Hall of Famer until they've demonstrated excellence over such a period of time that they would qualify as a Hall of Famer.

If you want to compare Ichiro, Jeter, Thome or Pujols to Mickey Mantle, that's fine, but can we put a stop to the hyperbole that surrounds the future careers of Harper, Strasburg, Trout, Heyward, Brown, etc and just focus on what they may or may not do this season?

And to address a question put to me a few days ago, no, their age means very little to me. Their age is relevant in determining if they'd be worth signing and at how much of a team's budget should be allocated to one man. Their age is also relevant in that if Harper and Trout remain healthy (and off of HGH), they have more time than the average player to accumulate the counting stats that we associate with Hall of Fame players. However, I'm not going to say that so-and-so is at the same level as the all time greats until they prove it.

Heather: I agree that Inciarte is a better prospect than Mini-Mart (who was not considered a prospect by anyone except aksmith) and Herndon (who was a real prospect but a modest one with a ceiling of middle reliever.)

However, that doesn't mean he's a good prospect. Most scouts project him as no more than a 4th OF, a job he won't be ready for until 2015 at the soonest.

Iceman: I agree Capuano is a better bet than Cloyd should a starter go down, but is that worth a prospect and 4 million dollars?

That I am less sold on.

Klaus -- I clearly stated Hamels was the sole "ace" of that magical '08 team. Those were the days.

How long do we give JW to post a prediction thread before we start one of our own?

Love how all the pundits picked nats to win div and WS. We all know how that is. Saw only one person picked philles to go to WS. Frank Thomas and that's fine by me.

@Jack good point, I thought I missed a prediction thread somehow.

Clout, I agree Inciarte is no blue chipper, and I'm not happy about the decision, but a few of the prospecting sites I read indicated Inciarte could develop into an everyday regular if things break right. 4th outfielder seems more realistic, though.

I defer though, as my knowledge of prospects is limited to the few sites I read.

Overall, regardless, it's a bad decision to make. Just a slightly less bad one in terms of the prospect'sceiling than it has been in past years. (IMHO, of course.)

Of course, in another sense, it's a much worse decision as in the past, the Phillies had such a stable of stars they could've carried me as the 25th man and still made the playoffs. This year, when it appears they could use every advantage they can get...still, the same old $hit.

It's baffling, really.

Clout: Well, health, yes, but effectiveness of course as well.

Utley missed 60 games in 2011, but Howard played 152 games, Shane Victorino was here and had a career year, and Hunter Pence was here half the season and hit great, and the Phils finished 7th in the NL in runs. Is it that crazy to think this team would finish 8th or 9th in runs, with some worse players and some older players? Actually it seems pretty reasonable to me.

But yes, I'm also skeptical that two players who have missed significant time with leg injuries the last few years will suddenly be healthy and the same players they were at age 29. That just seems unlikely.

On a broader note, do any of you ever think there's something odd that the only people predicting the Phillies to be particularly good this year are Phillies fans on a Phillies blog? That doesn't raise any flags to you all?

I suspect a prediction thread will be forthcoming, but since every thread here turns into the same thread, it won't serve much of a purpose. At most, it will provide a temporary break from the endless bickering.

What fun are prediction threads if you don't get to declare a winner? So I'd like to hereby declare GTown_Dave to be the winner of last year's prediction thread:

"Assuming the Big 3 remain healthy:

92-70, 1st in NL East
Eliminated in NLDS

If one or more of the Big 3 gets hurt:

82-80, No Postseason

General Predictions:

* The "new" Offense will be a disaster.

* A Phillies pitcher will not win the NL Cy Young Award.

* At least 3 of these 4 players -- Polanco, Rollins, Ruiz, Vic -- will make at least 1 trip to the DL.

* Howard will be rushed back only to prove ineffective &/or suffer another "setback".

* Utley will return by the All-Star Break, but be ineffective.

* Qualls will audition for the position of pitcher to All-Star Home Run Derby contestants. Unfortunately he'll do so during his 8th Inning appearances for the Phillies.

* Both Nix & Wigginton will prove a complete waste of oxygen, let alone money.

* Papelbon will pitch well enough, but prove to be a non-entity in terms of the team's ultimate success or failure.

* The Liberty Bell Home Run feature at Citizens Bank Park will rust in place from desuetude."

GTown_Dave April 4, 2012 at 11:54 a.m.

Well, last year everyone predicted the Phils would win the NLEast and the only ones who were sounding serious alarm were a few of the more pessimistic bloggers on here.

National pundits tend to engage in a method of groupthink where they invariably pick the teams that did better last year, and/or the teams who signed shiny new toys.

The national groupthink tends to undervalue teams that are counting on players coming back from injury, and/or rebounding from bad years.

That being said, none of that means the Phils are going to be good this year. I just think *if* the Phils the Phils ARE good, it's going to be for reasons that are very underrated by the national pundit groupthink.

Right before a season starts, I always like to think about how it could be worse than it really is. For example, Bud Norris could be our opening day starter.

@Scott Wow, an ESPN prediction of Tigers/Nats World Series. That sure took some guts and serious analysis.

It does seem like a brainless prediction, but Stark isn't one to mail in a column. That said, even our fearless BL leader predicted a return to the WS last year for the Phils, so it is good to remember that the baseball is a humbling game, and the Gods are always there to remind us of that.

Scott, I agree with you, but it's also interesting he bases it on the general consenus of scouts...and that doesn't work out that way too much as we know.

Last year, I think you had to be a blind optimist to have us making the playoffs and going deep. This year, despite the legit comcerns over Halladay's health, i don't see it that way. At all.

The things that bother me, outside of Halladay, are Chooch's suspension and our defense. I think the age thing is overrated. I think Revere and Brown,Revere especially, are going to make this lineup much better than people think. We have a dimension at the top we've never had, the fastest guy in MLB. With experienced hitters around him, (better than the Twins lineup) it's going to be more difficult to navigate this lineup when he is on base.

I hope i'm wrong about Chooch and how this affects the team. I think it's under reported and something to keep an eye on. April's schedule is fairly easy, so despite him not being around, we need a strong start.

Enough rambling, I will save the rest for the prediction thread.

Go Phils, this has been the longest winter basaeball wise in recent memory.

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