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Thursday, March 28, 2013

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He threw 96 pitches.

He was 88-90.

He had more swings and misses than last time out.

If he's healthy, and there were more signs today that he is than we've seen recently, he's well behind schedule.

Hopefully he'll show more control his next time out. It's hard to expect any more than 5th starter performance right now from Doc.

Pete Orr continues his fight for the final bench spot replacing Dom Brown in LF.

His LH bat and his versatility make him a legit option for the 25th man. Certainly a better choice than Inciarte, in my mind.

KAS: Are you saying that Orr will post a positive vWAR this year?

Wow, beat writers acting like this was a total disaster! Doc's command was off yes, but there were some encouraging signs. He didn't look like he was laboring. His velocity was where it was early this spring, and most of his pitches had plenty of movement.

Its concerning that he couldn't throw more of the pitches he needed to (change/cutter) in the last ST start of the season, but I can't be terribly concerned that he wasn't locating in a ST game. That can come and go to anyone.

What I do like is that he was missing bats and working around 90mph.

Revere on base. Again.

Like seeing Revere work on his bunts-for-hits.

I suppose one thing we could try is Revere and Rollins going back-to-back bunts?

...Or just that Inciarte will post a negative WAORR?

Philibuster: Nah... I'm not sure how long he's actually on the roster. My guess is he goes when Delmon Young arrives.

I think Orr is fine as a 25th man, but it's a sign of a weak overall bench.

Is anyone aware of 94.1 broadcasting games in-season? Is it an identical broadcast to 1210? I recently gave up cable (my only hangup was the Phils) and, of course, just discovered my apartment's terrible recpetion of 1210.

Mick: Really think we need to start measuring player success in WAMartinez.

Mike G/lorecore- agree with you 100%. There needs to be some context in the analysis. Gelb and others don't seem too concerned with it.

The most optimistic view you can have on Halladay is:

He's behind schedule. The illness or other issues slowed him down in spring. He's at least a few starts away from getting a handle on his command.


The most pessimistic view you can have on Halladay is:

His velocity may be fine, but his command issues are a function of a change in delivery which often hides an injury.

Fun watching Revere score from 2nd on a routine ground ball to second that gets past the 2B.

J-Roll was clearly trying to get Revere over to 3rd, just turns out he got more than that.

He CHASE'd that one.

Nice to see Utley heating up here at the end of camp.

Nice quick, short swing by Utley and it's a 2-run HR.

Utley has my favorite swing in MLB

Did anyone else notice Chase did a little "Jack Parkman shimmy" before that swing?

Brett, 94.1 has been doing every game for the last season or 2 and it sounds much better than on AM.

In fact 94.1's choice to prioritize Phillies games last spring, opposed to Sixers playoff games led to 97.5 taking the Sixers in those playoffs and then the Flyers this season.

KAS -
I disagree. The most pessimistic view you can have is that the Real Roy Halladay has been replaced by an imposter alien who is using his stop as a Phillies pitcher to position himself for a take-over of the world, in which we will all be used as a food source by his true race, which prefers to eat its food alive.

phillycuban: yea...I'm sure 97.5 was glad to swoop in and get the Sixers/Flyers - but if you are 94.1 - you still have Phillies/Eagles, so you'll glady risk losing the other two in a dispute.

Andy: Really? Because you'd think imposteRoy would have some sort of cybernetic arm that could throw 104 and some sort of new "spiral" pitch.

Oh yeah, not even close. Baseball is perfect to listen to without seeing and football is football. Basketball is pretty atrocious and hockey isn't great either and neither sport is universally liked.

Andy: What if Alien Roy Halladay finds a way to infect parasitic spawns of his race through pitching a baseball against hitters? As long as he doesn't throw batting practice to us, the Phillies will eventually win the WS by default right?

That doesn't sound too bad.

Ahhhhh! Mini Mart is on the field! AHHHH!

I know Ruf is de facto the babyface on this team, but every time I see Galvis' face I can't help but think that there's been a mistake.

Aumont just made the roster with that clean inning.


Paginf MG...

Cyclic, almost nothing gives me a bigger feeling of disgust than seeing minmart in a Phillies uni.

Aumont really has to leverage his "effectively wild" status, because he loses the strike zone often enough that it could be a real problem if hitters are sitting on stuff out of the zone.

The wind giveth and the wind taketh.

Kratz should have had a HR there.

If/when Aumont is able to throw a first pitch strike >60% of the time, he could be really good. Once he gets 0-1, those hitters will swing at that filthy, 18" off the plate stuff.

UBIK: While I agree, I think the problem is then he'll get tons of first-pitch swings, because they won't want to get in deep counts.

We see the same thing when Lee takes the mound - opponents no longer wait on the first pitch, they assume it's going to be a strike, and most of the time they're right.

I really wish Aumont would throw inside more. He seems generally reluctant to do that because of his overall command.

At worst, he nails a hitter on the hands/ribs at 95+ MPH. You think guys will be willing to crowd the plate as much?

Adams coming up:

Dudes, forget the nonsense about bear claws and voodoo crap. Don't need none of that when you have a Nikon with telephoto ;)

So here's a thought.

Adams/Papelbon
Venters/Kimbrel

Which would you rather have for the 2013 season (assuming all are healthy)?

So basically Halladay is at best behind schedule and struggled with his overall command & pitching out of the stretch (two issues all of last year).

Ugh. It sounds more and more due to his new delivery (I would love to see his release point from '10-'11 compared to '12 & this spring) he is going to be a guy who has mediocre command at times & is basically going to be more of a junk baller who throws his share of curves and changeups.

I still like my over at 83.5 but this was just kind of depressing knowing now that Halladay is basically going to be this diminished version of his former self for this point forward.

buster, Kimbrel is soooo good that even if Adams is better than Venters ATL would still have the advantage. IMHO.

Venters/Kimbrel - No brainer but Venters like isn't healthy & Kimbrel has struggled this spring with his command a bit.

Adams has a working arm...Venters most likely does not.

So there's that.

awh: Kimbrel is definitely great, and I think he edges out Papelbon about 85% of the time, but I mean disregarding all other things. Say you were building a team from scratch, and you had to use one ticket to buy an 8/9 pair.

Do you use your A/P ticket, or your V/K?

MG, good point about Aumont pitching inside.

Maybe he needs to go a little Nuke Laloosh on some hitters.

Adams continues to be a buzz-saw. When he's not striking guys out, he's inducing a lot of weakly hit pop-ups/grounders.

Kimbrel is obviously preferable to Papelbon, but considering Venters is visiting Dr. Andrews, I'd take Papelbon/Adams.

Venters is scheduled to have his arm examined by Dr. Andrews today.

I see a TJ surgery in his near future. Going to pay for the sins of Fredi in '11 when he used Venters in 85 G and had him warm up in either 96-97 games from the article I saw a year ago. Insane usage in any era of baseball.

buster, if they're all healthy my V/K ticket.

Adams definitely locked up the Spring Training Cy Young award today.

It's pretty close in my mind, given that I think a healthy Adams is noticeably superior to a healthy Venters, but I agree that the Kimbrel>Papelbon scenario makes it swing in V/K favor overall.

Also: Inciarte can fly out weakly just as well as the rest of our team. Looks like he'll be a robust addition to the bench.

@philibuster
venters is on his way to see dr. james andrews today for his elbow... that is never good news -- at the very least venters is going to be on the 15 day DL to start the season and most likely will be gone for longer. he's had a Doc-like spring training as far as getting hit and from what I have read has not been right from the get-go this Spring.

With that said, the braves still have Walden to setup for Kimbrel. Without Venters though, the only lefty they have is O'Flaherty, so it does weaken their pen a good bit

Seattlephan: Yes, I know about Venters' current status. My question was, if all are healthy, which way do you lean? And that's disregarding the rest of their teams - only 8/9 relievers are of consequence in this comparison.

I am so confident in Adams (and Cholly's love of a bonafide veteran setup man) I picked him up off the waiver wire for my fantasy team exclusively for the Holds category.

Mini-Mart making his last-minute push to be on the opening day roster.

Sh!t. Mini Mart with a double. Welp, so long, Galvis.

Mini-mart no!

If healthy, I'm pretty sure everyone is picking Venters/Kimbrel.

Mini Mart double... with that 25th spot up for grabs, he's doing his best to say, "Don't forget about me!"

Hopefully he's been long forgotten!

KAS: Can anyone forget Mini?

Michael V. Martinez.

That's right. Versatility is his middle name.

With that said, the braves still have Walden to setup for Kimbrel.

----------------------------------------------------------

Didn't Walden get hurt earlier this spring? I thought I read on mlbtraderumors that he could start the season on the DL.

Sil: So you're saying he's really VMart?

Wait,is Seidman suggesting that location and movement is Doc's problem rather than velocity?

Ha! Beerleaguer posters spit on your location!

Laynce Nix Sez: "EAT YER VITAMINZ!"

And Pete Orr just sent mini back to LV.

Nix kills another rall--

oh

Laynce Nix still sucks.

Thanks Philly Cuban (and others).

oops, that was Nix. I guess I should have the sound on, but I can't f/n stand TBag. Nevermind.

The "good" news is that Galvis is on the 40-man, while Mini Mart is not. Take that for what it's worth...

(note "good" in quotes, so as to distance myself from any sort of supposition that keeping Freddy Galvis on the MLB bench is actually a good idea)

Can we start a petition to have Susdorf up instead of MM, if it comes to that?

He can't be much worse, and it'll be worth it to hear opposing announcers try to pronounce his name.

Okay... if this is a regular season game, what are the chances Manuel uses Papelbon here anyway just because he's already warmed up?

Better question. Who would you prefer managing your 8th and 9th inning relievers:

Charlie or Fredi?

Buster: maybe the V stands for venereal, not sure.

One might profess that he's hung around the Phils organization like a bad venerea... oh, nevermind.

Realistically? Probably Charlie.

He at least listens when a guy is listed as "unavailable" for a certain day. Admittedly, he has to get listed that way, but...

Sil: If you're implying he infected Ruben with some form of syphilis...

Well, I'm not ruling it out.

***Okay... if this is a regular season game, what are the chances Manuel uses Papelbon here anyway just because he's already warmed up?

***

100000000000% chance.

Papelbon records the 5-run save.

What was particularly impressive about 1-2-3 9th inning was that he did it without the adrenaline rush of a save situation.

Yankees release OF/1B Juan Rivera. He's RH and 34 years old.

Many on Beerleaguer were hot for him a few years ago. In 2009, he went 287/332/478 with 25 HR. That was his high water mark. His 2010 was okay with a 721 OPS and 15 HR then he became a FA.

He was awful with Toronto for a half year (666 OPS) before being dealt to the Dodgers where he put up a 740 OPS. But in 2012, he had just a 661 OPS in part-time play with the Dodgers.

I hope Charlie sees Adams as more than just an "8th inning closer," i.e., only pitches with game tied or lead and only for 3 outs in the 8th.

If you're not going to use Papelbon creatively, the least you could do is use the very good pitcher behind Papelbon creatively. If the middle of the order is up in the 7th inning and its bases loaded, you better bring in Adams instead of Durbin. And yet, somehow I doubt that will happen...

Jack - I guess Cholly. Its like asking you wanted to be punched or kicked in the groin. Both are painful choices.

@MLB
Agree? @jonbernhardt of @SportsonEarth says NL East will finish: @Nationals, @Braves, @Mets, @Phillies, @Marlins - http://atmlb.com/10hr8HD

Behind the Mets? Ouch.

5 of the 7 runs were scored on 2 meatball pitches.

Doc kept them in it and the bats came through. He's not dominant any longer so that's all you can ask of him.

Fish are looking to trade Gorkys Hernandez...

So is Juan Rivera really a better option? Ugh. Better then another year of JMJ. Because if we pick up anyone is has to be with the hope we can demote and keep them when we use Delmon.

Fish are looking to trade Gorkys Hernandez...

...not impressed

Jack/MG: Do you think you would make a better manager than Charlie Manuel?

"Behind the Mets? Ouch."

That flesh-eating-alien-Roy-Halladay scenario is starting to look a hell of a lot more like the 'best case scenario.'

Ben Francisco makes the Yankees Opening Day roster after being released by Cleveland.

Methinks that doesn't bode well for the Yankees.

In light of the news about Venters today, I think we can safely say that while Charlie might not be a bullpen genius, he's got to be better than Fredi. I hope Kimbrel's got a strong elbow...

CS: Juan Rivera is not a better option than JMJ.

The most shocking tidbit in the Juan Rivera news is that he's just 34 years old. Seems like that guy has been around since the Roberto Clemente era...

lorecore - Sandberg for one. Cholly's strengths as a manager with personnnel aren't best applied to this veteran team that has been together for a long time.

Worse Opening Day Outfield?

1. Yankees
2. Mets

Mets will suck balls again this year. I don't understand why people think they will be improved this year unless their bullpen suddenly and unexpectedly overperforms this year.

Thanks for the link, GBrett.

The article lost me with this bit though...

"And with Charlie Manuel's well known predilections for Laynce Nix and John Mayberry, Jr., and the front office's outstanding commitment to Delmon Young as the everyday rightfielder, Brown might find his playing time squeezed no matter how well he's hitting the ball."

I mean, come on. Seriously?

Maybe the Phils can return Mini-Mart to Arizona instead of Inciarte.

The Phils finishing behind the Mets as a real prediction makes me yawn and ignore whoever writes it.

If Rivera is getting released by the Yankees, hopefully that's enough of a red flag for Amaro to stay away.

Bernhardt is a douche. He and Baer jerk each other off on Twitter with their Howard/Manuel/Amaro hate constantly.

Seriously look at the Mets. Santana is out and no timetable to return. Ditto Marcum. Hefner got hurt. Having issues putting together a 5-man rotation right now. Bullpen is missing Francisco and Bydrak.

Wright and Murphy is day-to-day and might miss the Season Opener.

The question isn't whether the Mets finish ahead of the Phils. They won't and won't get close. It's if they even win 75 games this year and any of their promising starters and prospects start to deliever this year.

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