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« Big day for Quintero, Revere; bad day for 'pen | Main | Hamels, Galvis increase league leads in win »

Sunday, March 10, 2013

Comments


Also, hopefully that Mayberry bit is just speculation from a scout and nothing more. Moving Mayberry basically puts all the pressure on Ruf to mash for the remainder of spring and the first few months of April, or the team WILL get a large dose of DYoung in right for a majority of the season. That would be a disaster. Plus, who plays CF in this scenario?

Posted by: Iceman | Sunday, March 10, 2013 at 10:55 AM

I have a horrible suspicion that Mini-Mart would be the backup CF if Mayberry was moved...after all, he's been playing there a lot this spring...

Wow. That lineup is pretty well-constructed. Don't think I would make a change. Bravo, Charlie.

It was really cool to see younger guys come into camp and make a great impression. I know it's a bit of a sport to rip on Asche, but he seems like a good kid that plays the game hard. And Joseph might be a nice consolation prize for the Pence disaster.

What's wrong with Asche?

MG, what's the point? Do we have readings on Paps' velocity? If not, then Baer is right. All we have are ugly results, and a closer who has been sick. If we had readings that his velocity was dangerously low, or something else, I'd agree.

MG- I read that and agree with you.

This article from almost exactly a year ago sound familiar to you?

http://crashburnalley.com/2012/03/14/panic-at-bright-house-field/

Key quotes from Baer:

"Spring stats don’t have any correlation to regular season performance. I found no correlation in a very hastily-done study two years ago and there have yet to be any more rigorous studies showing a stronger connection. [...] There is no reason to panic about Halladay."

Another classic from Baer:

http://crashburnalley.com/2012/04/23/no-reason-to-worry-about-halladay/

When Baer is posting about not panicking about a player, I usually panic.

One last one, that came in late May:

http://crashburnalley.com/2012/05/23/roy-halladay-is-fine/

I am anticipating at least three similar posts on Papelbon if he continues to struggle.

Continues to struggle? Is not yesterday's 1-2-3 inning an indication that his "struggles" are at least on the wane?

Baer is the ultimate wet blanket, who tries to be Bill Simmons. That is not a wise aspiration.

There isn't a single beat-writer who posted anything on Papelbon's velocity. Only that he pitched a 'clean inning.'

I really don't care that Papelbon got hit hard in his first 2 outings nor that he had a 1-2-3 clean inning.

What I want to know is what his fastball velocity was at and what his command looked like with it.

For a guy like Papelbon who is so dependent on his fastball and its velocity at least at 93-94, it matters and if it is only topping out at 90 MPH like it was in his 2nd outing that is a real issue.

Papelbon generally does add a little velocity as the season goes on but he isn't anywhere near topping out at 90 even to start the season.

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=5975&position=P&pitch=FA

Even last year, Papelbon never had the same velocity he did in Boston and when he did air it out to hit 95 MPH or so he lost command on it. He usually did that only when he wanted to go with a high fastball too & hoped he got a hitter to chase it usually with 2 strikes.

If Papelbon was 100% right this spring, he should be routinely at least 92-93 on his fastball.

Yesterday he went heavy on his splitter which made it hard to draw any conclusions about his fastball. I think he only threw 2 the inning he worked.

MG, I agree that his fastball velocity is important. But if we don't the readings (or at least reliable readings), then we don't have them. Until such time as we have reliable readings that says he's topping out at 90, what else can be said other than "don't fret about results."?

Asche can play. I think everyone saw it this Spring. And especially sharp on defense, which was the biggest question mark about him. He showed he could hit in the minors last season. I again heartily suggest the Milb.com package on the internet for the coming season. If you have the major league package, it's only 20 dollars more and you won't have to rely on those here who regurgitate scouting reports from third parties.

As for Joseph, he looked very good and that's a real improvement from what I saw last season. I was really wondering why he was so valued. He looked okay behind the plate last season, but his bat? Not so much. Of course, it was a small sample size.

Baer's point though was that people shouldn't be concerned about Papelbon because of the ridiculously SSS and his previous results in spring. I agree and frankly don't care that much about the results.

His velocity was notably down in both of his first 2 appearances on his fastball (90-91) and I haven't seen/wasn't enough evidence to draw any conclusions on his fastball yesterday.

Just have to watch his next 2-3 outings to see where he is at.

MG- you and I both know that it isn't the results that are a concern. Guys get hammered in spring all the time. The results will come if the velocity/stuff is there. Baer's post basically only talks about this, and everyone knows this to be true. It isn't what people are panicking about.

The problem is his stuff isn't there, and him throwing splitter after splitter yesterday did nothing to really alleviate any concerns about his fastball. Baer says nothing about that, which is the real issue.

Camera angle for the game today is hilarious -- looks like they're shooting from 3rd base

Iceman, maybe most on here aren't panicked about results, but do you think that most fans are watching the radar gun on Papelbon in his first three ST outings?

I highly doubt it. I'm not saying it's not a cause for concern, but until we have reliable readings that show him only topping out at 90 consistently, even after he's over his "flu", then what's the point in getting flummoxed? He's simply a mystery right now. Just have to wait and see.

MG: yeah it was all Gillies. Not Robinson who dirty slid into second, or dropped a bunt hit in a 9-3 game. And it wasn't on the Mexico third baseman who told the pitcher to hit the batter. An it wasn't the pitcher who threw three straight pitches at the guy at the plate. And it wasn't the ump who allowed that to happen. And it wasn't the batter going towards the mound, or Valle pushing him. And there weren't a dozen other guys throwing punches and pushing before the stuff with Gillies. It was all Gillies.

Yes he berated the bus driver and ran away from aceves after he threw him into the ground (again after the two were tangled up). But Gillies is the only one who catches the crazy venom of MG.

Fatalotti: the point is that Papelbon and Papcon are in MG's crosshairs and will be all year now. We will be treated to 4 posts a game about it.

I'm with you. Without velocity readings it is hard to draw any real conclusions from Papelbon's spring. You never want a guy getting hit around like that but this is not the first spring that has happened.

Lance Nix with another spring homer. This team can field a really deep lineup against RHP.

Fata- good point. I tend to think that BL conventional wisdom (spring stats don't matter) is the public's conventional wisdom. Probably not the case for most casual fans.

Still, I feel like Baer could/should have approached the subject from a different angle, like "Possible reason for concern about Papelbon, but not for the reason you think." Instead he comes off (like he does in those Halladay posts that make him look pretty foolish now) like he's simply turning up his nose at people that think there is reason to panic. And this is coming from a guy who constantly turns up his nose at people who panic.

TTI - Sure there were others involved but watch the replay again. Aveces wasn't expecting Gillies to toss him like that and that is why he got angry & immediately started to chase him. Other players saw that and that is when you really started to see the punches being thrown.

I have no idea why you would defend Gillies yesterday or in general.

What's worse: The camera angle or Astros announcers?

Utley got pulled for C. Hernandez. I wonder when/if they will let Utley play a full game in ST.

At this point in ST, I fully agree with only playing partially to save wear & tear. Plenty of time the last 10 days or so of camp for him to get fully geared up.

M. Young with a double and another multi-hit game. He's started slow in camp but has been hitting at a good pace since.

I haven't see enough of him though to tell how he is driving the ball though & how his swing compares to last fall when he finally puts things together.

At least Michael Young can hit...he'd make a great DH.

Ruf got HBP on his elbow. Left the game immediately & TBD.

First bad injury break for the Phils this spring.

kratzy triples , scoring young and michell. ruf out with elbow injury.

That HBP is concerning...I mean, Ruf has been raking up till this point.

What does 'TBD' mean in this case?

Hamels gave up a double to start the game and hasn't given up a hit since.

Good to see him bounce back from the shelling against the DR.

I dont care what people say, I think Galvis could be a starter in the Majors at some point.

Ice, I assumed it meant To Be Determined.

To Be Determined. Imagine they will give him an x-ray immediately and go from there.

Meaning Ruf's condition was To Be Determined.

Looks like Hamels put the DR game behind him.

MG: not really all that interested in defending Gillies. Just saying that you are being way over the top in blaming thy entire brawl on him and calling him a shitbag.

This Astros team should be win 50 games this year but it is really hard to see much more than that with the possibility of being an epic stinker team (45-50 wins) if a few of their man guys get hurt (eg., Norris, Altuve).

TTI - Didn't place the entire brawl on him just that he probably did the single most foolhardy thing during the brawl and yeah I think he is a scumbag.

Best case for the Phils is that he hits a bit this year & can be packaged in a trade deal at the deadline or this upcoming offseason.

Galvis is having himself a day.

NEPP: I'm with you on Galvis

I dont think he'll ever be a high OBP guy but he can swing a bat.

Galvis is going to be one someday. Bet on that. He's still young, and seems like he has been around for years. Always had glove just needed to work on hitting, and seems like he has.

wasn't that the second 1-hit game of the spring?

Just want to point out that "This will be the last time the Phillies face the Astros until 2014 since they are moving to the American League this year and don't fit into the Phils' interleague dance card in 2013." is not 100.00% certain.

It's entirely possible, though not likely, that the Astros and Phils meet in the 2013 World Series.

So with Ruf getting hurt does this mean Young will be the full time RF even though he hasnt played there since 07 while Brown's cannon is wasted in LF?

Corn, don't take this as an endorsement of DYoung 'cause its not, but having seen Ruf this spring, what makes you think he is ready to play either corner outfield position in the majors?

Well if you say it like that, Ruf has had a better spring then D.Young.

My worry is them sticking Young in RF, when the guy is already a bad fielder, in a position he hasn't played since 2007.

If Young has to play, I want him in LF, the most recent position he has played consistently.

I'd imagine our Opening Day outfield will be:

LF: Domonic Brown
CF: Ben Revere
RF: John Mayberry Jr/Laynce Nix

I agree NEPP. I think Ruf needs to go to AAA to learn to play the outfield and see if he hits.

Ruf really did seem to be warming up lately, and he didn't make any egregious errors in his last couple of games. Even if his entire Spring Training was lukewarm, though, I'd give him a spot on the Opening Day roster--after last year in the minors, the majors, and winter ball, he really doesn't need to "prove" he can hit. I hope this injury isn't serious, and that he can return to play. My dearest wish is for him and Brown to get the Opening Day starter spots, and hold them down so well that Young will be released when he comes off the DL.

BTW, according to Gelb, Ruf appears to be fine.

Well Allen, we'll just have to agree to disagree, maybe he doesn't have to prove he can hit, but he sure has to prove he can play the outfield, and I haven't seen that yet.

Mike G, I agree with you that Ruf hasn't proven he's ready to play the OF yet at the ML level. He still has to prove that.

But here's the thing. If you are going to remove Ruf because you have fear that either his bat won't play at this level or his glove won't play at this level, you then don't turn around and replace him with a player in Delmon Young who has already proven that neither his bat nor his glove play at this level.

So, you either just give the keys to Ruf and hope that he turns into a ML player or play a strict platoon there with Mayberry and Nix (both of whom can field a corner position, and at least hit for power against opposite handed pitching).

Putting Delmon Young there is just a ensuring yourself of poor production out of a corner position, both defensively AND offensively.

this is a nice post

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