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Tuesday, March 05, 2013


3-4-5 of the future right there!

"I'm not worried about him."

So, we'll see Pap in July maybe then?

Ender over Ruf sounds crazy at first, but then you realize you knew it all along.

Can we give Howard a day off, please.

Can we give Howard a day off, please.

Posted by: R.Billingsly | Tuesday, March 05, 2013 at 09:21 AM

I like giving guys days off as much as anyone, but it's March, he's playing in 12 straight games, it's baseball, he plays first base, and he's only playing half a game every time he's out there.

He'll be fine.

Of course, Inciarte can actually play the OF. Not saying I agree with it by any means, but Ruf really isn't a LF at this point. And may never be.

Fat - Still just 18 months removed from his Achillies and less than a year from major surgery when he clear up the surgical infection.

It's just completely senseless to start Howard everyday in spring in the field.

I'm sure Howard wants to be out there everday but he should be sitting some games especially where they have to go on the road.

Thankfully decisions on when Utley plays have been usurped by the either the training staff/FO. I'm sure Cholly would play him almost every day in spring training if he could too.

Guys, at this point, Howard is either healed or he's never going to get better.

Playing him in half-games every day is not a major deal.

Its a completely different situation than Utley who has a chronic degenerative condition.

Also, its early Spring Training when guys are routinely held back from playing due to even the most minor of injuries/concerns. The fact that Howard is playing every day should be looked at as a huge positive in that it means he's fully healthy.

I think its idiotic to run any player who has a guaranteed job out to every single ST game to start the season. Has nothing to do with previous injuries or not.

idiotic might be too strong a word. Its more pointless than idiotic.

Agree with NEPP about Howard. He isn't even playing a full 9 and it's encouraging to know he can pound on that achilles one day and then wake up the next morning and be right back on it. Remember Howard said that it was in the back of his mind when he came back last season. It would be in the back of anyone's mind that it could just snap as soon as you come out of the box. The mental hurdle is always the toughest one. Having him out there everyday this spring is helping him get past the mental aspect of a nasty injury. And he's raking.

I'd be more concerned if he was playing more than 5 innings each game. He doesn't play a strenuous position. This is a non-issue.

The outrage over Howard playing everyday is just so phony. He is playing like 4 or 5 innings and they are trying to test the ankle and get his timing back up. You want to talk nothing happening stories- it is this one.

Also- Charlie said early that Utley would not play road games. He wasn't usurped by the FO or training staff. Just a silly criticism of Charlie

I'm the first on here to criticize the FO or Charlie when they do something that is clearly going against the grain of statistical analysis, but in this situation, we just don't have perfect, or even good, information.

The Phillies have a medical staff. You may think they suck at their job, but they obviously are keeping tabs on Howard's health, and if they felt it unwise to play him everyday, he wouldn't be playing every day.

Until we have the information at our disposal that they do, I think it's ridiculous to criticize them for playing a PROFESSIONAL athlete in a baseball game for 4-5 innings when said player plays one of the easiest positions to play on the diamond.

"Thankfully decisions on when Utley plays have been usurped by the either the training staff/FO."

Right. I'm sure the training staff/FO has absolutely no input on how to prepare their $125 million first baseman for the season coming off an achilles injury and a broken toe.

lorecore- Exactly. Torre didn't play his older regulars all the much the first 2 weeks of camp when he was the Yanks' manager.

Simply knew it served no point & this wasn't baseball of 30-40 years ago where some veterans needed the first 2 weeks of camp to get back into shape.

Cholly will play Utley and Howard as much as he can in April with almost no rest. He's said numerous times that he doesn't believe that veterans need rest early in the year. It's incredibly short-sighted especially with an aging roster. Just a poor managerial trait.

Counterpoint - What point is served by having Howard play everyday this spring?

MG: Getting him prepared to play baseball for the 2013 Phillies?

"Simply knew it served no point & this wasn't baseball of 30-40 years ago where some veterans needed the first 2 weeks of camp to get back into shape."

Maybe there lies your answer.

Nothing to worry about.

Jonathan Papelbon has a cold

I don't think Howard is an injury-risk and that the reason that he has been playing everyday is because the medical staff/trainer don't have any medical concerns.

It's up to the discretion of the manager. Just don't understand what they get with him playing everyday especially when you have 2 guys in camp (Ruf, Mayberry) who the staff should get a longer look at 1B to see how they are defensively.

Mayberry really struggled there last spring & wasn't that good there last season early in the year. If Ruf looks solid there, maybe he should start early in the year to spell Howard.

Anyone see Hunter Pence singing/dancing in his car? Shortly after these videos he misjudged a turn and ended up impaling himself into a wall. Well he either did that or rolled over a first pitch fastball on the outer half.

Maybe Howard (who basically wasnt healthy for 1.5 years straight) DOES need that time to get back his timing/shape levels.

Just maybe.

I think Howard still looks a little heavy and not as svelt as many dubbed him to be. Won't do him any harm to be out in the Florida sun for 4 innings a day. And does anyone think that if he wasn't comfortable playing everyday or was experiencing some pain he'd, you know, say something. Unless of course he is out to break some spring training records.

I think he gets a $12 million bonus if he leads the Grapefruit League in "production."

Amaro wrote that clause in himself.

What point is served by playing Howard every day in the spring? Haha.

MG was apparently wake and baking this morning or he drank some spiked coffee when he got to work.

Between that and implying the front office and training staff have no say in Howard playing he is off to a fast start in the dumbest posts of the day contest. The bar has been set people.

I'm not saying Howard should sit around and do nothing. Obviously, he should work out, take some BP, some ground balls, etc, but playing him every game seems counterproductive to me. Especially since it's only Spring Training. It's not like they really need to get a look at him to decide whether he'll be on the 25-man roster.

Who else has played every game? [honest question]

Howard - needs to get his timing back and his "legs under 'im" . Timing doesn't magically fall out of the sky. He is playing half days. let he man do his job.

Pap - OK I am totally suspicious about this "illness". I bet it is Flu of the Elbow or something. NEPP, July may be an early estimate. Welcome to Mike Adams being our new closer.

Crap, my first post of the day & it disappears after I hit "post." And it was a good post too. Even TTI would have liked it, as I was making fun of MG for titling his post "Counterpoint" -- only to say the exact same thing he had just said in his post of 2 minutes earlier.

Aside from giving someone else a chance to "get reps" at 1st base, what's the argument for not having Howard start every game? Especially if he's going to be taking grounders and BP anyway, putting exactly the same kind of stress on his body?

We know Ruf can play 1st at an average level. It's probably the only position (aside from DH) he can, as of yet. Mayberry is also a known quantity at first.

Especially considering he usually only plays 5 innings, tops, I think that gives the AAA guys plenty of opportunity to get reps at first while also helping our starter (who hasn't played the position in about 5.5 months) get back into his rhythm.

It's not that big of a deal. It's just kind of senseless given that he has played 11 consecutive days & they have a ton of spring training games yet.

The only off-days now between the start of the season are March 11, 20, 31 with 24 games remaining yet including the 2 'on-deck series'

Adams wouldn't be the closer. You think they'd roll with Aumont? His stuff is so filthy. I get the control issues.

MG, you bring up a more important point...the on-deck series. Can we please get rid of this? I remember when I had my season ticket plan becoming irate when they would lump this in with it. It's stupid. CBP is entering its ninth season. The only reason to ever have it was to let people be the first in the park in 2004. Now it's pointless and just pisses people off.

We had the same argument on here numerous times about Cholly's roster manager including last year when I was repeatedly labeled 'an idiot' for Cholly playing Chooch at what was a historical pace early in the year.

Turns out Chooch was playing with a slightly injury that he severely aggravated and wound up missing a decent portion of time. Shocking.

Joe: Actually, I think they might experiment with Antonio, unless Aumont proves he can consistently find the strike zone without a Garmin GPS unit.

If I remember right, they experimented with Bastardo at closer a couple of years ago when Madson was hurt, and it didn't do too poorly. Admittedly, he was a much better pitcher at that point in his career, but his peripherals haven't varied that wildly in the interim.

Joe D - Or the ridiculous length of spring training in general. It is just a chance for the owners to milk a few more bucks from spring training.

'On Deck' series is only slightly less foolish than the the Eagles 'Flight Night.'

Gave away my 'On Deck' series away to a coworkers' college friend.

MG: I would think there's a major difference between resting a guy during the season (at which point he's likely to simply be resting, since he's already "in form") and resting a guy about 2 weeks into ST when he hasn't seen games in nearly half a year.

Especially when you factor in the difference in body stress between playing catcher (being in the crouch, being involved in literally every pitch, being the position most likely to get hit by a pitch/runner/foul) and playing first base.

I was actually on the "Bastardo for Closer" bandwagon before they brought Papelbon in and then Antonio came out and took a hot dump on the mound for the first half of the season. I really liked him as a cost-controlled and live-armed closer.

If Papelbon really does miss time they have 3 guys who can conceivably step in and do the job.

The on-deck series is just so incredibly stupid, MG. Do they still allow you to trade that game in and pay the difference for a regular season game? That's what I did in the past.

You all are laughing at 4-5 innings a day for 12 days straight, but if a pitcher throws a baseball ~10 more times a few appearances in a row, its an outrage.

Theres nothing Howard can't do playing 3-4 times a week in ST that he can playing every day except rack up the extra mileage.

Most players say its impossible to simulate "game speed".


Hmm... Yep. 8 saves in 9 opportunities, and 17 holds in 2011.

If he pitches in the ~1.00 WHIP range again, I think he'd be a good backup closer. Aumont hasn't posted anything below a 1.29 since 2008.

Phillibuster: MG is the resident politican of Beerleaguer. He has his talking points and he sticks by them- no matter how wrong headed or ridiculous.

TTI: I think we're all likely guilty of that more often than we'd like to admit. I'm sure I am, at least.

Baseball, being so enormously full of statistics-of-various-use and having a relatively large sample size as compared to other sports, is particularly easy to (intentionally or unintentionally) shoehorn facts into a conclusion rather than the other way around.

Aside from giving someone else a chance to "get reps" at 1st base, what's the argument for not having Howard start every game?

Giving his injuries a day off. He's still recovering and the extra stress day-in and day-out must come with some complications. Game speed is completely different than BP and infield practice.

Again, has anyone -- healthy or not -- played in every game? If not, why? Probably because guys need a break early in the year. But not your slugging $125M 1B coming off a terrible injury? Makes little sense to me.

Lorecore: The amount of stress most pitchers put on their arms by throwing 10 pitches (without significant rest between them, as opposed to most other positions) is significantly higher than the amount put on a first-baseman going into a stretch 3 more times per inning for 3.1 innings.

Additionally, going 10+ more pitches (presumably for a starter, since for a reliever that might literally be a 50-75% increase in workload) likely means he's either doing poorly, or he's at least starting an extra inning, which means you have to factor in another cool-down/warm-up period, with maybe another 10 extra pitches thrown between the innings.

Throwing a baseball is an inherently unnatural act from a physiological standpoint...thus, it makes sense that relievers need off-days to avoid ineffectiveness and possible injury.

Billingsly: What injuries? As has been pointed out, Howard had an injury that was surgically repaired over a year ago. The only reason he took so long to come back was because of the infection that developed because of the sutures. The only problem he developed late in the season was a completely unrelated broken toe, which is - presumably - mended by now.

Considering Howard is the one who has come off the longest break in action (since he stopped September), and was the only one who was apparently unable to build himself up to full strength in 2012, it would make sense that he's getting the greatest opportunity to ease himself back into "game-speed" readiness.

Do you think that if he were taking a significant amount of grounders and BP while the team was playing, that would somehow equate to less wear and tear than playing 4-5 innings of a game?

I wonder if they are going to keep the Ender Kid. They kept Martinez i think they should with him as well. Dont know much about him but maybe another Pierre type player. For a second i thought maybe they shouldnt run Howard out there all the time. Then i thought im sure they are keeping tabs on him. Its been how many months now?

The best part about this Howard debate is that if he wasn't playing every game right now or close to it and stumbled out of the gate in April these same people would be screaming at the top of their lungs, "Why didn't he play more in spring training I don't get it!!!!!!"

These are questions that seem to be unanswerable because of a lack of perfect, or even good, information.

It's fairly easy for us to debate the merits of a sac bunt in any particular situation. It's a lot harder to debate whether Howard's ankle should be given a day off or not.

While I'm generally skeptical of "oh, they know what they're doing" deference to the team, in the case of injuries, it seems impossible to do anything else. That's not saying I'm sure they're making the right decision. It's just that we simply can't know enough of the relevant information to make any judgment at all.

Again we get stuck between ridiculous extremes on here.

I am not arguing that Howard should sit 2-3/times a week in spring training. It just doesn't make much sense for him to play everyday right now if they don't have an off-day in the schedule this week and to play 16 consecutive days until their next off day on March 11th.

No reason Howard can't sit a game this week especially if it is a road one.

I really like what I have seen in Ender. This kid actually looks like he has baseball skills. That's far different than Martinez.

RBill, how do you know that he's still recovering? Isn't it quite possible that he's as healthy as he's going to be, and playing does not confer upon him any unnecessary risk of aggravating his prior injury?

rbill - i looked at st stats, thy dont have PA - but they do have AB. Howard is 2nd in the league with 29 (rookie Adam Eaton at 30). The top 20 are all players with less than three years of mlb exp, if any except Howard. Tons of phillies atop the list (revere mayberry ruf brown fransden myoung), despite them in the middle of pack in games played.

No I wouldn't question about Howard sitting one/day a week if he stumbles out of the gate in April.

As for his early season struggles in April, that really hasn't happened the last few years.

April 2011: .290/.351/.560 with 6 HRs (27 G)
April 2010: .274/.310/.484 with 4 HRs (22 G)
April 2009: .288/.367/.525 with 4 HRs (20 G)

He didn't have a great April 2010 but it wasn't that bad either.

Do you think that if he were taking a significant amount of grounders and BP while the team was playing, that would somehow equate to less wear and tear than playing 4-5 innings of a game?

Short answer: Yes.

Somewhat longer answer: I'd rather he get continuous, low-stress reps in the cage and on the field every once in a while, than spurts of higher level activity during 4-5 innings of a worthless game. He needs to play at game speed, for sure -- I'm not arguing that point. But he also needs to get his bearings in the field and at the plate. Playing every game gives him less reps at a higher speed (and more wear and tear on his lower extremities because he's running the bases and making quick movements in the field.) It's not like he's a young kid where you're trying to "see what you have."

And for the third time: Has ANYONE on the team played every game? That is an honest question. If no one has, there must be a reason. What is that reason? Why is Howard the only one?

MG, I wasn't saying that Howard has been a slow starter in April. Just saying that if he wasn't playing as often in the spring and he did have a poor April people would be lining up to say that it was because of a lack of playing time this spring.

Dom seems to have played in every game--did he sit one?

fatalotti: "Recovering" is a poor word choice. What I meant was that he's still getting back to playing at MLB-speed. And by his own admission, wasn't 100% last year. Therefore, he does need to play in games. But, being the only guy to play every game seems odd, doesn't it?

Howard is the only one playing every game because Ruben wants to recoup some of that money he lost while he was out injured.

Jack's point, and one that I made earlier, is spot on.

We simply don't know enough about Howard's medical situation to make any type of informed decision regarding how much/little he should be playing right now.

It seems intuitive to suggest that a larger guy who had major surgery to his Achilles 18 months ago should be treated with kid gloves. But we don't remotely know if that's the correct perception.

Remember, if science has taught us anything, it's that our intuitions are oftentimes way off base.

lorecore: Thanks for the info. That confirms my suspicions. It's bizarre that he's played so much. I really don't understand it. I'm absolutely willing to hear arguments as to why (from the FO or anyone, really) and gladly change my stance. At this point, nothing too compelling has been offered.

Interestingly the Phillies in the top of the list (Revere, Mayberry, Ruf, Brown, Fransden and Young) are all guys the Phillies need to get a good look at. Howard's amount of playing time is just odd.

I just think and hope that if Howard felt uncomfortable with the amount of playing time he has been getting he would say something and the Phillies brass would listen. I mean the guy is due a lot of money. I would think his word means something.

RBill, why do you assume that the Phillies don't want to get a look at Howard?

He had an abysmal season last year. Perhaps they want an idea of what they have in him, just like with Revere and Young.

The Phillies roll out one of thier best possible lineups in almost every ST game they can.

Its not wrong or right, its just lame.

Imagine if the lamest guy you know in real life was setting the lineup for the Phils this spring training. What we've seen so far is what that guy would probably do.

Why does he play every game?

RH5 is ALL IN for Week 1

lorecore, lol.

Fatalotti: I completely agree with your 11:26. My injury comments are all based on assumptions.

My point, however, (and I'm not being argumentative -- I'm honestly trying to engage in a civil discussion) is that Howard is 2nd in the league in ABs and no one else on the roster has played as much as he has. I don't think he needs to sit every other game or anything like that, but a day here or there where he can just get reps in the cage and on the practice field seems like a better use of his time at this point.

RBill, how is work in the batting cage and taking ground balls a better use of his time then facing live pitching and taking actual ground balls?

Why do you assume that the Phillies don't want to get a look at Howard?

Because I think Howard's your starting 1B whether he has a good spring or not. To me, the #1 objective should be getting him reps, making sure he gets his bat speed back, his legs under him and his glove ready. Not getting two ABs and few balls at 1B. But, I'm not a MLB manager/coach. Just an observation/opinion.

Didn't someone (I forget who) say they are placing an emphasis on winning ST games? I swear I heard that somewhere. And no I'm not talking about the 1993 Whatever It Takes Dude DVD. I really believe they said this and running out the lineups they have would indicate they are pretty serious about it.

The one 'odd' thing about this team though is how many of the regulars notably hit much better in their careers during the 2nd half:

Pre-ASB: .866 OPS
Post-ASB: .962 OPS

Pre-ASB: .731 OPS
Post-ASB: .793 OPS

Pre-ASB: .756 OPS
Post-ASB: .812 OPS

Pre-ASB: .912 OPS
Post-ASB: .840 OPS

Pre-ASB: .769 OPS
Post-ASB: .772 OPS

Pre-ASB: .806 OPS
Post-ASB: .841 OPS

Only player during the run who had been notably worse after the ASB is Utley and it is almost solely due to his failoff in power production as the season wears on.

One of those quirky things that will get lost in history largely but was part of the reason why this team always seemed to surge in the 2nd half.

Billingsly: Because of how ST works, I'm sure he's getting those low-stress reps before, after, or even during games - or on days they don't have games (11th, 20th, 31st). Additionally, I'm sure he was taking those sorts of reps before the games began, since he was one of those who reported early.

I would think he will, eventually, get a day or two off this Spring, but I also think that his doctors would rather he get some extra miles on his Achilles now, so they can see how it reacts and make plans for later accordingly.

RBill, to see how his injury reacts to extend playing time.

Also, it might seem crazy to us, but if Manuel sees that Howard looks dreadful against LHP this spring, perhaps he's more inclined to give him off days during the regular season against LH starters. Howard's importance to this team's offense, coupled with the fact that he was atrocious last year gives the Phillies plenty of reasons to see as much of him during ST as they possibly can.

Joe: That was Doc, who said he felt the team needs to be hungry and competitive. "Even in ST, we need to want to win games," or something like that.

Fatalotti: Reps, my man, reps. Again, he should play games, of course. I'm not disputing that. But this is a guy who didn't do any baseball activity for an extended stretch. To me, seeing 50-100 ground balls and seeing 100s of pitches in the cage one day a week in lieu of seeing 20 pitches and 2 ground balls might help him get the muscle-memory aspect of the game back and help him get his footwork back (at the plate and in the field). Things like that.

Nothing compares to game speed, I get that. I'm talking about one day over a 10 day stretch. Everyone else gets that...why not him?

Nothing compares to game speed, I get that. I'm talking about one day over a 10 day stretch. Everyone else gets that...why not him?

Posted by: R.Billingsly | Tuesday, March 05, 2013 at 11:39 AM

Because he has a moat?

Fata, Manuel sit Howard against LHP...that's high comedy. It should be on the table but we know it's not.

Philli, thanks...I knew I wasn't completely crazy.

Phillibuster and Fatalotti: Your point about wanting to see how his injury reacts during in-game speed is valid. I don't necessarily buy it, but at least it's valid and makes sense. I'll never claim to know what's best for Howard -- or any player for that matter -- but the fact that he's played so much this early on was troubling to me. If he was playing every game the last week of March, then I wouldn't really be questioning it. The timing is weird.

Thanks for the discussion, all. (No sarcasm intended at any point throughout this, or any, post)

No one remembers what Howard looked like after his call-up last year? He was barely in playing shape. He gimped through the last few months of the season and it was painful to watch. He was using those games to work himself into shape. His numbers reflected that.

He really hasn't had an opportunity to actually work towards regular-season shape for over a year and a half. Why wouldn't you play him at every opportunity to make sure he's not simply going through the motions in April because he's not ready? That's all this is.

And don't use the surgery as an excuse. If that's still something they are concerned about, he's never recovering anyway. It's time for him to push it a bit.

Because he has a moat?


Billingsly: Why do you assume he's not also getting plenty of "practice" ("We talkin' 'bout practice?") in? I'm sure ST features significantly more pre-game fielding/BP drills, in part because we've got so many more pitchers/catchers available to facilitate it. We already know that our guys took BP on the "real" pitchers before games began.

I would bet that he's taking at least 1+ hour(s) of fielding/BP in addition to games every day. That gets him both the steady, muscle-memory-geared training as well as the "game speed" results thereof.

Does anyone think Cholly will really sit Howard vs LHP unless Howard is one of those deep funks he gets into?

I still don't think Revere is going to be in the leadoff spot either.

Maybe Cholly does change his tune this season but I tend to doubt it.

Maybe Cholly does change his tune this season but I tend to doubt it.

Posted by: MG | Tuesday, March 05, 2013 at 11:47 AM

I doubt it, too. But it as least a possibility. And since Howard isn't coming off a strong season, and he looks god-awful against LHP in ST, I think it would raise the odds that Manuel would consider it.

Philibuster: I mean "extra" reps, not just reps. I'm really talking about a "day off" where he just practices, no games, to put less wear and tear on his body this early in ST. As ST goes on, he should obviously play more. My stance the entire time is that I find it strange that he's the only guy that is playing every game, and one of two guys (Utley being the other) that should be treated with kid gloves in the early-going.

Fatalotti: Uh, Howard's hitting better against LHP than RHP this Spring. 5-for-11 with 2 doubles and a homer vs. lefties, as opposed to 5-for-16 with a double and 2 homers vs. righties.

Philibuster, I wasn't arguing that he wasn't hitting LHP well.

I was arguing that the team might be interesting in letting him play everyday so that he can face as many LHP as possible to see how he looks against them.

***The best part about this Howard debate is that if he wasn't playing every game right now or close to it and stumbled out of the gate in April these same people would be screaming at the top of their lungs, "Why didn't he play more in spring training I don't get it!!!!!!"***

No, the best part is that now once he finally does take a day off, a good number of posters will be freaking out saying he's clearly injured and why hasn't the team made an announcement?!?!

Fatalotti: "And since Howard isn't coming off a strong season, and he looks god-awful against LHP in ST, I think it would raise the odds that Manuel would consider it."

I won't say that your intent was to say he wasn't hitting lefties well, but it's definitely what you said...

Billingsly: I can understand that to be your stance, but I don't understand why he should be treated with kid gloves any more than [generic 33-year-old first-baseman]. His debilitating injury is either healed, or it's never going to heal, and if it's the latter than the sooner we know it the sooner we can see about acquiring/training a replacement.

"I won't say that your intent was to say he wasn't hitting lefties well, but it's definitely what you said..."

Phillibuster is a bit new to this Beerleaguer thing and, while a promising young poster, he's clearly still on a learning curve. Any veteran poster would know that you NEVER say, "That's what you said, but I take your word for it that that's not what you meant." A veteran poster would say, "That's what you said, so don't try to tell me that you meant something different."

Aw shucks. I knew I should have consulted the BL handbook before making that post...

I promise I'll do better next time!

Put me in the "Not worried in the least" camp when it comes to Howard playing every day. I believe it's a GREAT sign that he's showing himself completely healthy and given his struggles the last couple of years, I think it's helpful that he's getting as many ABs as he is to be ready for April.

Howard has NEVER been a guy who's shown he wears down. On the contrary, he's gotten better as the season has gone along.

Phillibuster: You'll get it in due time. It's still spring training.

BAP: Should I be worried about being optioned down to

"BAP: Should I be worried about being optioned down to"

You wouldn't get sent all the way to That's A-ball.

Hunter Pence looks like Evan Turner in that video Joe D posted.

I hesitate to ask what Rookie League is.

If only because I feel I'd be better off not knowing.

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