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Thursday, March 21, 2013

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Ten pounds?!

Its probably mostly water weight so its not that bad really. He'll probably gain most of it back in just a few days.

NEPP, I was thnking the same thing, that it was mostly fluid weight.

Any real setback in not caused by the weight loss per se, but more by the loss of muscle conditioning.

April 7 is the sixth game of the season. Does Hamels pitch on regular rest on April 6 or do they give Tyler Cloyd or Aaron Cook [shudders] the start?

I'd be shocked if Halladay makes a start during the first turn through the rotation.

J.R. King: Technically, I don't think either is a necessary route. Since there's a day off between the season opener against the Braves and the 2nd game of the series, Hamels could pitch the 6th on regular rest, and we wouldn't need a 5th starter until April 10th (day before another off-day), which is a home game against the Mets.

Halladay should open the season in Reading, accompanied by a bobblehead giveaway. That's a promotion even MG can get behind.

What, no "realistic projective vomiting action?"

... *Projectile. Geez.

Alternatively, we could have one of our much-beloved "bullpen" games!

Rolo: Bah. We all know that Chris is at least 180 inches shorter than Roy Halladay.

The extra effort involved with expelling 10 pounds the 5-6 feet between his stomach and his mouth just indicate what crazy core strength he built up over the Winter.

Reds move Aroldis back to the bullpen.

I actually agree with the decision, but the fact that it wasn't made months ago is incompetence at its finest.

I also missed the piece on Manuel talking at length about what the lineup will be like.

Basically it's the worst-case scenario: he said he's going to switch back and forth between Revere/Rollins in the 1-2 slots depending on the match-up. He didn't completely rule out moving Utley to the 2-hole (where he should be all the time) sometimes against tough LHP, but it didn't sound like he's too intent on doing it.

Some other interesting things: he said Howard is the only guy who could hit 4th because "he's the only guy that can drive in 130 runs per year."

He also said that he doesn't want to put 4-5 lefties in a row (despite the fact that Revere hits LHP well, much better than Rollins does) which says to me that Brown isn't hitting 5th, ever. But then he also said that putting Ruiz 8th when he comes back would really make the lineup 'deep'? Is he really thinking about putting one of the best hitters in the lineup- who is RH!- in the 8-hole?

I really hope he was just rambling because a reporter stuck a mic in his face, as what he said didn't give me much hope that he's going to know what to do when it comes to the lineup.

10lbs is meaningless to me without context. What is league average lbs lost? This is ONE illness, the sample size means this 10 lbs could be just a random fluctuation. Get back to me when he can repeat that over a statistically significant period. Until then, this is a non story.

Sadly that picture is a lot better than Halladay looked the last time out. Still have no idea why the Phils even started him.

If missing 1-2 starts during the regular season helps, I am all for it but this team does really need to get out of the gate strong to have any legimitate shot at contending for a playoff spot.

Can't see this team being able to overcome a sub .500 April this year.

MG Can't see this team being able to overcome a sub .500 April this year.
The real question is: Can Cholly?

Mick O, I'm digging through FanGraphs archives right now to see what studies they've done on 10 lb weight losses in Spring Training, and whether they have predictive value for future weight loss in the regular season.

So far....bupkis.

Why even bother to listen to what CM says. No kidding I would trade Manuel but that can't be done in baseball and we wouldn't get anything back for him anyway.

With the off day after opening night, they technically do not need to start Halladay until that Sunday, April 7th. That would also move Hamels out of the dreaded daylight start to the Saturday 7:05 game.

jr - They won't fire him if they are sub .500 in April nor should they. If they are sub .500 at Memorial Day or in early June, then Cholly's lame duck status starts to become a huge issue.

No worries boys. When I get back pencil me in at 5 spot. And brownie 6th chooch 7th my boy berry 8th

Cole's day-night splits since 2010:

2010:

Day: 3.34 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, .248 BAA
Night: 2.87 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, .229 BAA

2011:

Day: 2.56 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, .213 BAA
Night: 2.88 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, .215 BAA

2012:

Day: 3.14 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, .237 BAA
Night: 2.98 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, .237 BAA

In short, it's not an issue anymore. The difference between Cole Hamels today & Cole Hamels circa 2007-2009 is like night and day (sorry, couldn't help myself).

"Alternatively, we could have one of our much-beloved "bullpen" games!"
Yes, I hate them too but at least it gives Wheels a reason to use his most douchey pet phrase....Johnny Wholestaff. Which now that I think about it sounds like a porn name. Maybe he could star with Taylor Teagarden.

Caveat to the above post: in the summer, it doesn't actually get dark until an hour to 90 minutes into a night game. So I guess if you really wanted to break down whether Cole is a worse pitcher in daylight, you'd also have to look at his splits in, say, the first 3 innings of night games, and you'd have to count those stats toward his day games. But that would raise all sorts of potentially confounding issues, so never mind.

I do wonder what the league-wide day-night splits look like for pitchers. One would suspect that most pitchers probably do slightly better at night since, after all, it's harder to see under the lights than it is in sunlight.

BAP- the last three years, pitchers' day ERA has been exactly .03 higher than their night ERA every year.

I'll be curious to see if MG has finally budged on this Day Hamels issue, because less than 12 months ago when I contested that it was an issue, he felt about as strongly about it as he does about Revere's overrated defense.

BAP: There is that, and also the cooler air leads to fewer fly balls going out of the park...

But on the other hand, if the game is going quickly, you might have anywhere from 2-4 innings where there's a transition from light to shadow between the mound and the plate, which is allegedly the absolute toughest situation to pick up the ball out of the pitcher's hand.

Even going slowly, you probably get 1-2 innings that way - and they tend to occur in the 2nd-3rd time through the lineup, which is when teams would normally start hitting a guy more.

"the last three years, pitchers' day ERA has been exactly .03 higher than their night ERA every year."

So, it either makes a very, very small difference or possibly no difference at all (if that .03 is within the margin of error). Of course, the transition from day to night makes it impossible to truly flesh out the issue. It's possible the difference could be greater than is reflected by the .03 number.

BAP, I think the bigger issue that people would be referring to with the day/night split in performance would be that certain pitchers have pointed out that they feel stronger and more able to pitch well with a later start.

Perhaps, they find it more arduous to put in the necessary preparation before a 1pm game vs a 7pm game. Also, given that the traditional saying is that pitchers are creatures of habit, if you are used to pitching at night all the time, and then are thrust into a day game, you may not pitch as well.

It's also possible that certain pitchers just end up tossing day games more often than others because of when they come in the schedule. And as they pitch more day games, their ERAs tend to normalize more towards equilibrium with their night starts.

In 2012, Cole had 13 day starts (-0.16 ERA differential)
2011: 9 (+0.32 Diff)
2010: 14 (-0.47 Diff)
2009: 9 (-1.49{!} Diff)

In 2012, Cliff had 12 (+0.62 ERA differential)
2011: 7 (-1.28{!} Diff)
2010: 5 (-0.78 Diff)
2009: 13 (+0.07 Diff)

In 2012, Halladay had 7 (-0.60 ERA differential)
2011: 15 (+0.48 Diff)
2010: 9 (-0.71 Diff)
2009: 12 (-0.12 Diff)

For the above, positive means lower ERA, negative means higher ERA.

Fat: So, to cut to the chase, it was all of Cole's late nights out with Heidi that led to his poor day game splits early in his career. Now that he has matured, and doesn't go out as much, he has become a much better daytime pitcher.

BAP, exactly. Plus, without Burrell on the team anymore, the Phillies just don't party as much as they used to.

Fat: Out of curiosity, I looked up Burrell's splits. For the first 7 years of his career (2000 to 2006), his day-time OPS was far worse than his night-time OPS. In 2007, he got married. That year, his day-time OPS was 1.024. In 2008, his day-time OPS was 1.006. In 2010 and 2011, his day OPS was, again, way better than his night OPS.

Hmm . . . maybe there's something to this theory, after all.

BAP, it's not his fault. The league shouldn't have asked him to play friggin' baseball when he'd still be sleeping.

I think Pat had it written into his contract that he got Sunday afternoon games off.

Phlilbuster's chart indicates that what you should expect to find is true:

Over time, there's no meaningful difference at all.

From MLBTR: "Roy Oswalt's agent, Bob Garber, told Tim Dierkes of MLBTradeRumors.com that his client has been working out on the Mississippi State campus and is "waiting for the right offer from a contender."

Just sayin'

What's the tornado outlook this year?

***"Roy Oswalt's agent, Bob Garber, told Tim Dierkes of MLBTradeRumors.com that his client has been working out on the Mississippi State campus and is "waiting for the right offer from a contender."
***

He could pay them to pitch and I'd have zero interest.

I like that NEPP is still keeping up the outrage since "Tractorgate". At least you're consistent. Can't fault you there.

Oswalt's final year with the Phillies actually bore an uncanny resemblance to what we've been going through with Halladay over the last year: the occasional good outing, where he looks like his old self, interspersed between a lot of unsightly performances which leave you wondering if he's injured or just not very good anymore.

In the same article, Oswalt says he'd be open to a bullpen job.

To avoid fungibility, presumably.

RedBurb: What leads you to infer that NEPP's comment was based on "Tractorgate?" Perhaps NEPP was looking at Oswalt's 5.80 ERA and 1.525 WHIP from 2012.

BAP said it before I could.

Also, can we stop appending "gate" to the end of every scandal and faux-scandal?

Seriously, people of the world, that joke is incredibly tired.

NEPP was at the forefront of the Oswalt criticism when Oswalt got hurt on the tractor back in 2011. Just a reference to that. Nothing more, nothing less.


And I will not stop applying gate at the end of every scandal and faux scandal!

Fata, I accuse you of trying to start a faux-scandal-gate.

"Fattigate":

The emerging Beer*Leaguer scandal surrounding the admission of a certain poster, who consistently and rudely interjects himself into others' conversations, when he posted:


"Sometimes I debate just for the sake of debate."

And I will not stop applying gate at the end of every scandal and faux scandal!

Posted by: RedBurb | Thursday, March 21, 2013 at 01:32 PM

/sighs

Seriously, people of the world, that joke is incredibly tired.

Posted by: Fatalotti | Thursday, March 21, 2013 at 01:29 PM


Just like the Phillies starting lineup! I'll be here all week!

Edmundo, I plead guilty.

/shows self out

***Perhaps NEPP was looking at Oswalt's 5.80 ERA and 1.525 WHIP from 2012.***

Its a combination of his behavior during Tractorgate, his crap performance last year and his clubhouse issues in Texas last year where he was a distraction.

I dont think he's got anything left in the tank at this point.

"Sometimes I debate just for the sake of debate."

Posted by: rolo | Thursday, March 21, 2013 at 01:33 PM

I'm certainly not the only one here. Polemics is the lifeblood of the internet.

I dont think he's got anything left in the tank at this point.

The tractor or his career?

/follows RedBurb out

Let's put it this way:

I think signing a 35-year old pitcher who had a 5.80 ERA last year, and who refuses to participate in spring training, is an utterly horrendous idea. If someone else thinks that the idea is utterly horrendous because of "Tractorgate," then that person has arrived at the correct conclusion. I am not going to quibble over how he got there.

bap, based on Oswalt's overall career, IMHO he's worth a look.

Signing him is something else entirely.

rolo: The Phillies should definitely take a look -- at his 2012 stats, that is.

It may have been only 59 IP, but I'll take a look at a guy who had the following peripherals last year:

K/9: 9.00
BB/9: 1.68
GB%: 44.9%

What killed him?

BAbip: .378
HR/FB%: 18.6% (led to a 1.68 HR/9)

He did give up the highest LD% of his career, but not by a significant amount. And most projections put him at about a 3.60 ERA.

I wouldn't be upset if the price is reasonable.

BAP, if the Phillies take a look at his 2012 numbers, you're right, there's no chance in hell they'll sign him.

Now, if a FO that gives two sh!ts about advanced analytics, or really, basic analytics, took a look at Oswalt's numbers, they might see a pitcher who had some seriously crappy luck last year in his ~59 IP.

Zolecki:

"And why pitch Halladay in a Minor League game rather than face the Orioles in a game in Sarasota?

“He’s missed some time, but more important than that is I didn’t want to put him back on a bus,” Dubee said. “It’s contained germs. Contained germs. That’s what on a bus. It’s like flying. Why do people get sick on flights? Because there are germs on there. I don’t want to put him in a confined area.”

Dubee said he liked what he saw in Halladay’s bullpen session yesterday. He has said Halladay’s problems this spring are mechanical, and not health related."

~~


Move along, folks. Nothing to see here...

Oswalt is better than Cook/Lopez but then again there are probably some veteran journeyman at AAA that could make the same claim.

I think Oswalt is better than Cook and Lopez at this point. But that's not saying too much.

Yeah, I've heard that those buses are veritable germ HAVENS!!

Fatalotti: I think the point Manuel was making is he doesn't want Roy near other guys in a confined space for the better part of an hour. That's a great way to give other players the bug he had (in much the same way, it appears, that Papelbon gave it to Halladay).

Oswalt could be like a utility guy. Spot starter. Relief pitcher, long or short. Late inning outfield defensive replacement.

Also, they didn't give his jersey #44 to anyone. Just sayin'.

If Oswalt came back, would the starting rotation still be called the "Four Aces" or would it be called the "Three Aces with a four kicker?"

Actually, Oswalt's value is debatable. clout might think he's a two kicker. Professor Injection might bump up his value to be a five kicker. BAP may write. "Is Pedro Martinez still available?'

Fred, you've been in rare form this week.

Perhaps a "conversation" or two that you've overheard might be worth posting?

Haney Ramirez will be out 2 months.

I wonder if the Phils could get a bidding war going for Yuni between the Dodgers and Cards?

Uh oh. I wonder how our old fried phargo is doing? We haven't heard from her in a while and it looks like the flooding this year will be as bad as ever:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_FARGO_FLOOD_OUTLOOK?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2013-03-21-11-37-53

"friend" Phargo...

BAP has an interesting approach to analyzing players. A player with a proven track record of success in the big leagues who has a bad season at age 35 cannot possibly bounce back and thus is worthless.

A player who is a career minor leaguer, on the other hand, and has a good year in Triple A at age 30+ is a can't-miss slam-dunk and should be put into the lineup or rotation post haste.

I support the theory that below average starters can be very good relievers in one inning appearances. Call it either the Ryan Madson Theory or the Brett Myers theory.

In the smallest of sample sizes (48 PA), Oswalt as a reliever in 2012 had a 3.65 ERA, 0.892 WHIP, and 14.6 K/9. That's stellar, even if he gave up way too many walks (20 BB/9).

The Phils bullpen seems pretty set, but I'd take a flier if I ran a contender in need of bullpen help (Detroit?).

If Halladay goes down at some point during the season and our record is looking good, wonder if Oswalt will be getting a call. If he's willing to work as a reliever, may not be so bad because at least then we can push him to the pen, unlike, say, Lohse. I guess you'd just have to ask yourself at that point whether or not he'd be a better option than bringing Cloyd up (or, *gulp*, letting Cook get the starts??).

I'm not sure why, considering the cap space they still have, you wouldn't just sign lohse to a one year deal and go with a 6 man rotation, and just keep halladay around 150IP. Screw the pick.

Oh, and clearly the sign and trade needs to be put in place in MLB. This whole Lohse situation is ridiculous. Guy went 16-3 and a 134 ERA + and can't get a deal. DUMB

In the smallest of sample sizes (48 PA), Oswalt as a reliever in 2012 had a 3.65 ERA, 0.892 WHIP, and 14.6 K/9. That's stellar, even if he gave up way too many walks (20 BB/9).

Posted by: J.R. King | Thursday, March 21, 2013 at 03:27 PM

-------------

How do you get a 0.892 WHIP with 20 BB/9? Shouldn't it, at minimum, be at least 20/9 = 2.222?

How do you get a 0.892 WHIP with 20 BB/9? Shouldn't it, at minimum, be at least 20/9 = 2.222?

Posted by: alplq | Thursday, March 21, 2013 at 04:00 PM

Lots of successful pick-offs.

That 20 is his strikeout/walk ratio, not his BB/9 ratio. He had 1 walk in 12.1 innings as a reliever.

mm: Lohse had a chance to be very well-paid this year, but he and his agent decided they'd rather test free agency. Lo and behold, even with Boras representing you, FA doesn't always work out.

I feel very little compassion for Lohse "not being able to find a team to take him on," since he not only turned down $13+MM for this year, but also went into FA knowing exactly what the compensatory situation looked like.

"Guy went 16-3 and a 134 ERA + and can't get a deal. DUMB"


mm, you're doing the same thing that bap is doing with Oswalt.

And as far as the current CBA FA rules are concerned, I think they're working quite well. The "qualifying offer" comp kept a lot of teams from tying up their players with draft pick compensation, and every single big name FA - except Lohse, who is a Boras client - has found a job. Is it a coincidence that the last man standing is a Boras client?

I would say that the current FA rules are working just fine.

(mm, has it occured to you that the reason Lohse may not have signed yet is his asking price is too high?)

"A player with a proven track record of success in the big leagues who has a bad season at age 35 cannot possibly bounce back and thus is worthless."

Make that: a 35 year old player coming off a lousy year, which followed on the heels of a lousy second half, and who refuses to participate in spring training like everyone else. Yeah, I'm pretty doubtful that said player will be good this year.

mm, there a new thread up over at mlb trade rumors about Lohse. He's an excerpt:

"•One week after Spring Training began, Lohse was asking for a three-year, $45MM contract, Yahoo’s Jeff Passan reports (on Twitter). That asking price has continued to drop."

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

rolo: "has it occured to you that the reason Lohse may not have signed yet is his asking price is too high?"

Bingo!

Hudson, Maholm, Medlen the first three games. Something tells me Game 2 is going to suck whether or not Halladay is pitching.

b_a_p is correct 20.00 was Oswalt's (excellent) SO/BB ratio, not a terrible BB/9. I misread his baseball reference page.

Ice: It's ok! Maholm has only lasted 19.1 innings through 5 starts. We'll have him chased in the 3rd!

Boras was asking that for Lohse 1-week into camp? Boras is doing a real disservice to his client in this case. Lohse should have just gone on a 1-year deal at $12M and tried again next offseason.

"
Bingo!

Posted by: clout"

Yep, clout. The Moronocracy, some who are actually members of the print and online media, have been aghast at the awful situation of poor Kyle Lohse.

Unfortunately, Boras attempt to turn one admittedly great year in the last 4 into a big-money, long term contract has met some resistance.

While our friend mm is incredulous that a guy like Lohse, a guy who "went 16-3 and a 134 ERA + and can't get a deal", is still hanging out there, I think MLB GMs are acting very prudently with regard to poor Kyle.

What mm failed to notice is that Lohse had injury issues in 2 of the three years previous to 2012, and went 24 - 26 with a 4.52 ERA (85 ERA+) from 2009 to 2011.

Not the kind of 34 year old pitcher to whom it would be prudent to offer a long term contract. Not based on that one year, anyway.

Adam Morgan is getting the start on Saturday in Halladay's spot. I really think he might be the guy they will bring up in in the second half of the season if they need another starter.

If I was a player and saw what happened with Madson, Lohse, and Bourn, I'm not so sure I would sign with Boras. Madson never got his big, multi-year contract, Bourn signed well below asking price near the beginning of ST, and Lohse remains unsigned deep into ST. Also, I don't know how many of these guys are married. I know Madson is. Wives do not like that kind of uncertainty. Evidently Lohse is also married. I'll bet his wife is real thrilled with Scott Boras right now. Not.

limoguy, Boras got Lohse a 4/41 contract previously, he just overreached this time.

Lohse has made $56MM in his career, so I think his wife is probably quite happy with Boras.

Interestingly, fangraphs says that Lohse only gave the Cards 33.7 million of value for that 41 miilion contract, almost half of it in one year.

Lohse is an injury risk, wants more money and years than teams think he's worth, and that's why he's still hanging about.

Limoguy: Thing is, most of Boras' clients sign with him before they're drafted, and only in a few cases do you see guys switching over to him (Werth, for instance) near their walk years. Doing so essentially signals that he won't be sticking with his current team, because hometown discounts go out the door with Boras, and that's not necessarily a message most players want to send unless they're playing for perennial cheapskates (Marlins, say).

I'm willing to bet his reputation for getting great signing bonuses for draftees, and his history of extracting top-dollar in FA, will be more than enough to ensure that particular talent stream won't dry up anytime soon.

Boras gets his client what they want a vast majority of the time. He's already cashed in with Lohse once. Take a look at how much he's made in his career. 56.4 million for a guy with 118 wins and a career ERA+ of 97.

Something tells me Kyle will be just fine, and Boras will still be receiving a Christmas card from the Lohse family this year.

If Lohse isn't signed because he's still holding out for an overreach of a contract, that's definitley a good reason he remains unsigned. But if he's willing to take a 1-2 year deal for around 12-14mm and the only reason he's not signed is because no one wants to surrender a pick, to me, that seemed silly. I'm not saying, at 34, Kyle Lohse is a 60 million dollar pitcher, but he had a pretty great year last year.

"The Moronocracy, some who are actually members of the print and online media, have been aghast at the awful situation of poor Kyle Lohse."

"Aghast" would not exactly be the right word to describe how I feel about an unemployed player who has made like $60M already in his career. But if a perfectly good major league pitcher is unemployed on March 21, his agent has failed him. A big part of the agent's job is to: (1) reel in the unreasonable expectations that many clients surely have; and (2) recognize when it's time to back off your demands because no one is meeting them.

I really don't think Lohse is worth a 2-year deal at 14/year. Throughout his career, even recent career, he hasn't been that good a pitcher. He had a great 2012, it's true, but his BABIP was .262.

In 2011, he posted an ERA with a BABIP only .007 points higher.

Additionally, his age, injury issues, and the fact that he depends on a fastball/sinker over 50% of the time doesn't inspire lots of confidence that we're looking at a 3.00 ERA guy in any given year.

"I'm not saying, at 34, Kyle Lohse is a 60 million dollar pitcher, but he had a pretty great year last year."

mm, but that's ONE year. Collectively, the three years before that he was decidedly below average.

If you were running a team you wouldn't give him the long-term deal he was seeking either.

buster, good post.

According to fangraphs, Lohse provided an average of $8.4 MM of value per season during his last 4 year deal. However, last season he provided 16.2MM of the 33.7MM in total value. In '09 and '10 he only provided 3.6 and 2.7 of value, respectively.

Point: He's more of a risk to get dinged up, miss starts, and provide a clunker of a season than he is to provide a 16MM season.

MLB GM's know this, and that's why he's not signed yet, and why he probably won't get the AAV and years he wanted.

Every other player who had draft pick compensation attached has been signed.

I'll be honest, if we could expect him to post his 2011 ERA (3.39), then I think a 2-year deal in the 12-14 range would be a competitive offer... Except he has the draft compensation attached, so you would probably have to cycle that down a bit unless the team already took the first-round hit or was protected.

However, that respectable ERA was also courtesy of unsustainable BABIP, and his 5.30 K/9, while nothing to sneeze as at, certainly isn't good enough to garner elite AAV or an extended-length contract on the strength of one awesome year and one solid year.

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