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Friday, March 29, 2013

Comments

Repost from last thread:

Bill - The article hit the nail on the head. Monty is a good friend and close ally of Commish Bud, and the team was not willing to bust slot in those first few rounds.

I don't agree with what they did to appease Bud, but they did do it. They would bust slot with those later round picks to try and find a sleeper pick, but more often than not that approach doesn't work.

One scenario I see the Phils making the playoffs:

- The offense is better than expected due to a breakout year from Brown, a resurgence and full seasons from Utley & Howard, and an upgrade from 3B offensively due to M. Young.

- Bullpen is a noted improvement over last year as Adams/Papelbon are the anvil and hammer the Phils drop on opponents in the 8th & 9th only blowing 1-2 games all year when the Phils have the lead entering the 8th inning and these guys on the mound. Rest of the bullpen is better than expected due to solid year from Aumont/Bastardo, a surprise contribution from Valdes, and adequate numbers from other contributors including Horst, Durbin & De Fratus among others.

These two factors are enough to overcome what is a porous defense and a mediocre starting staff to win 88 games and take the 2nd WC spot.

Seidmen: Great post. A healthy Adams is a human buzzsaw and I never really got to see him pitch in SD or this Spring. Will be one of most welcome sights this season.

What seals a potential playoff spot is the bullpen. Let's get the season started.

Good to see Corey post this. There was an argument about this a month or so ago. Adams absolutely could have made the difference between playoffs/no playoffs last season. The impact of this addition can't be measured by WAR.

So apparently the trendy thing to do is to pick the Mets ahead of the Phillies in 2013 as witnessed by this piece of work that linked on the main page of mlb.com: http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/43429048/

Adams is great but there is a certain irony to the fact that a team which doled out $11M per year for a relief pitcher before the 2012 season then has to dole out another $6M per year to get another relief pitcher who can actually be used in all those close, late-game situations that don't happen to fit within the arbitrary criteria which determine when that $11M reliever can be used.

Rating how teams stack up compared with one another in their division only in 4 categories?

What a stupid methodology especially with 2 WCs this season.

It almost seems trendy this season to crap on the Phils and 'how old they are' after the Keri article came out vs. last season when I thought the national media was too high on them regarding their injury issues (predicted 90 wins last year and a struggle to reach that).

Collected on every Phils' season under/over bet since '08 and I still like the over on 83.5 that I took at -130 even with the crippled Halladay we saw in the later part of camp.

I loved the Adams signing and the only fear I had was that he would not be healthy. As it is, I believe we got him at a significant discount. When bums like League and Broxton are getting $20M+, Adams is a total steal.

Anyone who thinks the Mets will be good this year has to be either be:

1. The most optimistic Mets' fan around because the beat writers/media who cover the team think they will stuck this year

2. Huffing paint

3. National guy who doesn't follow the NL East much.

I think the Nationals are cooler than the Phillies

Nik: A better question than "Why are all these people picking the Mets to finish ahead of us" is: why do you seem to take personal offense when someone picks the Mets to finish ahead of us? It's some guy's prediction (made, apparently, before Santana went down for the year). It's not grounds for taking personal offense.

By good for the Mets, I mean .500 and winning 80-81 wins.

That 2:31 post, in case anyone can't tell, was not me.

lorecore- I hadn't seen much of Adams either (aside of playoffs with the Rangers and against the Phillies) and it's pretty fascinating watching him pitch. First of all, his ability to stay out of the middle of the plate is really impressive. If he's missing, he's missing out of the strike zone- even with his slider, he's got good command of his stuff. His slider is freaking nasty too with a lot of late, sharp action on it. Guys haven't made any hard contact on him- when they do, it's a sky-high pop-up or fly ball.

The other thing that strikes me is how he flies off the mound in his delivery. It's pretty jarring when you watch it. Looks like he's trying to blow his arm out on every pitch and he's nowhere near position to field by the time he lands. It almost looks like he could cut off some grounders to second base with where he lands.

That 2:31 post, in case anyone can't tell, was not me.

Actually, that prediction article looks to be the same one that was posted yesterday -- as it has the same claptrap about Cholly's "predilection" for Nixberry. So it's not "another guy" picking the Mets over the Phillies. It's the same guy.

bay_area_phan I really don't get offended. I find it amusing. I'm also eager to go through a season as a significant underdog as proving the pundits wrong will make a good season all the better.

Actually, that prediction article looks to be the same one that was posted yesterday -- as it has the same claptrap about Cholly's "predilection" for Nixberry. So it's not "another guy" picking the Mets over the Phillies. It's the same guy.

Who is taking personal offense to the prediction? Pointing out something is stupid is just that: pointing out that it is stupid. And anyone saying the Mets are going to finish ahead of the Phils based on what they have on paper right now is an idiot.

The Mets will finish with,a better record than Philadelphia, I strongly believe.

Oh goodness, don't tell me this imposter fiasco is returning.

fake bap has NATitude.

Ugh. I would honestly not mind having to sign up for a Typepad account to post on here if it meant that it would prevent this imposter douche from posting throughout the season.

On a positive prediction note, the Big Hurt has us winning the NL East and going to the WS.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130328&content_id=43434754&c_id=

I like Frank Thomas even more now.

Also, who knew that ex-Phillie Marlon Anderson landed a Studio Analyst job with MLB?

I like the Adams signing and have no concerns with the bullpen as a whole,im also convinced the phils will score enough runs to win games,my concern is the starting pitching after Hamels and Lee..Doc now a huge question mark and Kendrick followed by Lannan not to comforting..upgrade needed reuben or luck

Screw off, Nikolas.

I'm shocked to see all these writers overlooking Toronto. Am I the only one that thinks that team is poised to coast to 95-100 wins?

That lineup is stacked from top to bottom, with power and speed, and they have two legit front-line guys- Dickey/JJ- along with two solid 3-4 guys in Morrow/Buehrle (Morrow could even make a leap to a #1-2 type guy this year). The only weakness is their bullpen.

The 2:38 double-post, and the 2:41and 2:51 posts: not me.

Ok, you all get the idea, so I'm not going to keep saying it every time there's a fake post. I trust that most people can figure out which posts are really mine and which are not.

Uhhhh maybe not many since last year he wasn't the same pitcher as he had been in the past. Drops in K/9, K%, a small drop in velo. A rise in BB/9, BB%, ERA....

You can't just say he literally would have been the difference. You kind of have to show how. A relief pitcher isn't the difference in that many games in the standing.

You're the only one, they are this years Marlins/Red Sox.

Iceman - Ditto. Though I think it will be closer to 90 wins because as you stated they do have a pretty pedestrian bullpen.

Phils should finish between 90-95 wins this year. IF Howard and Utley show up like they can this year, and if Halladay's evolution goes well it could be even more. The BP should be top 3 in the NL this year.

Yeah, I sort of like men anyways.

Crap prediction for the BP by The-Ax.

Buster Posey 9yr/$167M

Here's a hint for anyone who might mistake me with imposter BAP: If I really thought the Mets would finish with a better record than the Phillies, or that the Blue Jays were this year's Marlins, I wouldn't just say it; I would tell you why I thought it. And I would probably throw in some silly analogy that Iceman and TTI would spend the next 2 hours picking apart.

Yes I would expand on my posts because I have THAT much time on my hands and can't get laid. Did you know my hand IS in fact my girlfriend btw?

How long did the last imposter thing last? That's how long until I come back.

Adams has blown 10 leads in the 8th inning or later (in 121 hold opportunities) since 2008- only once last year did he do it. The Phils blew 12 8th inning leads last year alone.

Yeah, a premium setup guy would've made a big freaking difference.

lorecore - What rank would Posey's contract be as far as highest paid position players go? Aside from A-Roid and Howard's contracts I don't remember any others off the top of my head.

The-Ax: There's lots of contracts bigger than Posey's. For example, Joe Mauer's was for less years and more money (8-184)

Albert Pujols earns more, he would rank 4th now I believe

Who would spend their time impersonating someone on Beerleaguer?

I mean, spending time reading and posting is bad enough. But to take it to that next level seems ridiculous.

I know. Pathetic. Seidman needs to fix this.

If I knew how, I would. I'm merely a writer here, not the webmaster.

2013 Phillies related prop bets, via Bovada.lv, all over/unders:

Jimmy Rollins .265 AVG, 29.5 SB
Chase Utley .270 AVG
Michael Young .289 AVG
Ben Revere 40.5 SB
Ryan Howard 105.5 RBI, 30.5 HR
Roy Halladay 13.5 Wins, 3.50 ERA, 175.5 K
Cliff Lee 14 Wins, 3.10 ERA, 210 K
Cole Hamels 15 Wins, 3.05 ERA, 210 K
Jonathan Papelbon 37.5 Saves

Im leaning towards taking a 2nd mortgage out on Revere OVER 40.5 SB

Lol. Trolls will be trolls I suppose.

Lol, yeah just trolled Seidman right there.

I also had a post from yesterday that re-posted today.

Since I think we should be able to blame someone for the impostors I say we blame Jack and all his Braves fan friends, and BAP and his Gnats fan friends. It seems to be the best way to go.

The 3:04 post: mine.

The posts identifying which posts are not mine: mine.

The others: not mine.

Also, I like men so much that I completely advocate my life to this site as if it's my religion, because? I just like men THAT much.

Oh goodness, don't tell me this imposter fiasco is returning.

Posted by: NEPP | Friday, March 29, 2013 at 02:42 PM

Oh goodness?!? Really? At least try to sound like one of my posts.

I like the over on the 105.5 RBI for Howard. I'd take the under on wins for Doc. I also like the over .270 for Chase.

I sleep with men for a living, preferably baseball players but i'm into role playing as a baseball player myself sometimes if I get pounded hard enough, I scream "THAT BALLS OUTTA HERE, SEE YA!" at the top of my lungs.

Whoa Nepp. You took it too far.

Revere
Rollins
Utley
Howard
M. Young
Brown
Mayberry
Kratz

Tonight's lineup for the stupid On-Deck Series game but that is basically what the Opening Day will be except likely Nix in there intead.

Gelb writes about how the Phillies are anti-advanced stats.

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20130328_Phillies_continue_to_rely_more_on_scouting_than_sabermetrics.html

They don't even understand basic concepts like OBP and SLG. Ironic, because on-base skills and power brought them so much success.

Random prediction: Mayberry starts opening day over Nix even against a RHP.

I could see Charlie going with the better overall player rather than the better match-up, particularly on Opening Day.

J.R. King- the best part of that article is how they scouted Delmon Young...using 7 year-old scouting reports.

The Phillies' anti-intellectualism drives me insane.

In no other part of my life am I willing to tolerate ignorance or lack of intellectual curiosity. I try to surround myself with smart people. I try to vote for smart politicians. My wife is pretty brilliant.

And yet I can't change my allegiance to a baseball club who is roughly the equivalent of a talk show host who mocks those with Harvard degrees.

MG: I wouldn't be shocked to see Rollins and Revere bounced back and forth depending on the matchup.

who cares J.R. Kang?

I agree with the basic premise that there is a lot about a player's mentla makeup/constitution that is difficult to evaluate and translate into a quantitative metric.

The rest of the article though is pretty damning though and makes the Phils come off as kind of as pollyannish rubes at best and at worst as foolish Luddites ignoring the changes around them.

This is the article I was waiting for a Philly sports media guy to write for 2 years. Good job Gelb.

I would love to see an article on how the Phils handle injuires. I bet they take as just as an a$$ backwards approach there and are behind what other teams are doing & implementing both at the MLB and minor league levels.

Amaro's strong fascination with using RBIs though as a key metric to evaluate players has to be the single most puzzling/stupid thing he does as a GM.

It's largely a useless stat when evaluating an individual player just as saves are to a reliever. Two largely useless stats that get way too much attention still.

Did I miss the kudos for RAJ doing something of which the B/L braintrust approves, that is, in signing Adams? I'll say it: nice job RAJ.

thanks, J.R King. hard to believe a brand worth $893M tolerates such backwardness in its ranks. i love that the radar gun at cbp is manned by the computer department's #2 guy. a trained monkey could do that job.

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