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Sunday, March 03, 2013


I think anyone who can take Aaron Loup deep has a place in the Big Leagues.

After looking at the two videos of Howard and Brown's HR, to my naked eye, at least, Howard looks like his bat is still a little quicker than Brown's.

Mebbe I'm wrong, but it looked that way at first viewing.

Pecota has their standing projections out:

They have the Phillies at 80-82, 8 games behind the Nationals tied for third with the Mets.

Anyone want to bet me that the Phillies clear that win total by 6.5 wins?

"Anyone want to bet me that the Phillies clear that win total by 6.5 wins?"

You're going to take what is essentially the betting line & give an additional 6.5 games? I don't bet against my own team but, if I did, I'd be emptying my bank account to take you up on that bet.

BAP: Point is I think it is a bogus line. I would say the line for wins on the Phillies is probably 86.5 like I pointed out.

So according to Pecota the Nationals will win the division with 88 wins? Really?

Ruf is going to have start mashing soon or he'll really have a hard time making the cut. Also nice to see Michael Young and Galvis going deep in the second game. And Mayberry has been really hot after Charlie had his little talk with him.

If I recall correctly, those Pecota win projections tend to be systemically low for the good teams and systemically high for the bad ones. They tend to clump all teams very closely around the mean.

Anybody else read the blurb by Ryan Lawrence on how the Rule 5 kid showed up early the first day of camp and Chollie didn't know who he was? I like to bash him as much as the next guy when it comes to his lack of in-game acumen, but can anybody defend that? Unbelievable.

Pblunts, I don't really think it needs defending. I don't think Charlie really knows half the minor league players that are invited to ST either. I don't think its a big deal.


BAP- that is not the betting line. Last time I looked, the betting line was O/U 84.5 wins.

80.5 is ridiculously low, especially when you consider that with all the crap that happened (bad luck and otherwise) last year, the team still won 81 games. Utley and Howard showing up healthy and the fact that they have a competent 8th inning guy already puts them ahead of the curve. 80.5 wins is laughable. Being tied with the Mets is even more insulting.

I tend to agree with TTI that 86 wins is more realistic for a O/U. If I was a gambling degenerate like some, I'd put some money down on the over 84.5.

Wow, team projections behind a paywall?

I wouldn't even consider paying to see something so frivolous.

Also, whenever someone sees a projections for the Phillies that they think is low, they retort with, "don't they know Howard, Halladay, Utley were hurt, and that we had a billion leads blwon in the 8th inning..."

I'm pretty sure they know these things. They just view the prospects of the team differently. Big deal.

"I wouldn't even consider paying to see something so frivolous."

On this we agree. It's not as if Pecota (or any other service for that matter) has accurately forcast every season since they started.

@nlk I hear you, but I think it's weird because he's a rule 5 guy and has to make the roster or he's gone and the manager has no idea who he is (or obviously what his game is about).

Anyway, it's great to see Howard and Brown mashing. Love it!

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