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Tuesday, March 26, 2013

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"Last season, Halladay had a 1.95 ERA in April. Then he turned 35 in mid-May, struggled, couldn't hold leads, eventually went on the DL for seven weeks and finished with his highest ERA (4.49) and walk rate (2.1 per nine innings) since 2004."


Corey, are you suggesting that because Halladay turned 35 in mid-May, his body magically changed and he began a rapid descent? Please clarify.

Yes. That is what I'm suggesting. You got it. Spot-on. Once you turn 35 your arm falls off. It's black magic.

All I did was state the facts.

BTW, great post/thread Corey.


From the last thread:

That is completely accurate. And the margin for both of them is pretty large.

Rollins is a significantly better SS than Bowa ever was in pretty much every facet of the game (and I'd imagine he'd make a better manager/coach too).

Utley is lightyears ahead of every other 2B in franchise history too. Nap Lajoie would have been top on the list had he spent more of his career here...He only spend the first 5 seasons as a Phillie and then jumped ship across town to the A's before heading to Cleveland (the team he's most associated with).

After that's is a fairly large dropoff to Trillo and Samuel.

Corey, as I pointed out yesterday, if you dig deeper into Halladay's numbers over his first 5 starts when he posted that 1.95 ERA, it's clear that he was already showing signs of what was to come, but was just getting very fortunate with batted ball luck.

I don't feel like researching the numbers again, but his K/9 was very low (like 6/9), his BB/9 was high for him, his BAbip was .226, his LD% was 11%, which is incredibly low for ALL pitchers.

Frankly, Halladay sucked all last season, but he, and lady luck, masked it in the first month of the season.

In all seriousness, no that is not what I'm suggesting. Halladay struggled last season, whether you separate April from the rest of the season or just look at his 2012 on the whole.

I used those two points to show exactly when he turned 35. Because with aces, history does show that 35 tends to be the cutoff point for greatness.

***Yes. That is what I'm suggesting. You got it. Spot-on. Once you turn 35 your arm falls off. It's black magic.***

And here I thought you were being funny.

~sad~

Your article is a great summary of what happens to most pitchers once they turn 35. Unless Halladay is an inner-circle HOFer like Greg Maddux, odds are that he's pretty much finished as an elite SP.

The Phils could benefit from Hudson aging appropriately for once as well. His GB% heavy arsenal has been basically unaffected from age 23 to 36, as well as basically his entire game. Pretty incredible that he can do the same thing for so long and still remain effective.

Last year he finally started to show some signs of wearing down, so hopefully it holds true.

"Hudson is two years older than Halladay but has actually thrown five fewer innings.
"

Corey, perhaps that's because Hudson has spent a significant time on the DL, no? In '08 and '09 combined he only tossed 188 innings. A normal year (200 IP) during both seasons and he'd have more IP that Halladay.

"All I did was state the facts."

Except that yu left a significant fact out of your post: Halladay's injury last season.

By not mentioning the injury, you seem to be implying that his performance was affected only by his turning 35. Surely you're smart enough to realize that?

the series of fangraphs projections/rankings has SP up. According to fWAR, here are their top 5 individual pitchers for 2013:

Cliff Lee - 5.9
Yu Darvish - 5.9
Verlander - 5.8
Strasburg - 5.7
King Felix - 5.5

Galvis in LF today.

Galvis in LF today.

lore, thanks. I'll go take a look.

From last thread: Votto's problem is that he is a White guy who poses at the plate when he hits home runs. It isn't appropriate to do that. Ain't nobody got time for that.

notto: glad you reposted - such an important statement.

"By not mentioning the injury, you seem to be implying that his performance was affected only by his turning 35. Surely you're smart enough to realize that?"

1) I literally wrote in the sentence you copied in the first comment "Eventually went on the DL for seven weeks."

2) I'm glad that even with all of the information in that post, and the explanation that I pointed out the April-rest of season comparison simply to show WHEN he turned 35, that this is what we're quibbling about.

I'm trying to not overreact to a random ST game, but Galvis in LF seems to be the stupidest 'experiment' possible.

However, I reserve the right to overreact if he gets one inning in the OF that isn't forced due to an extra inning game or some other fluke occurance.

awh -- All of these pitchers had different routes to 35 and after turning that age. The point is that half of the top 30 pitchers from 32-34 were no longer in that group at 35. And yes, obviously, injuries, pitches, wear-and-tear play a role in that. That is what happens with age. I think 99.999999999% of baseball fans understand that without it being explicitly stated.

lore, what I found interesting about those fangraphs projections is that they only have KK penciled in for 122 IP. I know they base those projections on past performance (the last two seasons he's averaged 137 IP), but their projections seem devoid of any context and make no adjustments for guys getting moved into the rotation full time. I also thought Lannan's projected IP (135) were low as well. He hasn't tossed less than 180 innings in a season since 2007.

I'd love to know their methodology.

lorecore, the other interesting point is that what many here consider to be a vaunted and unbeatable Nationals' rotation is only projected to produce 1 more fWAR than the Phillies'.

Based on what I've read about the Nats' rotation, especially from some on this board who think they can all repeat the career years they had last season, I'm surprised the projected gap is only one fWAR.

Though in fairness, the IP projections for a lot of the Nats' starters is probably too low.

awh, I don't think anyone here has ever called the Nats rotation unbeatable.

Also, again I ask, why do you keep calling them "career years"? If you mean, that those pitchers had their best years to date, fine, but I think you mean something more.

Gio Gonzalez and Zimmerman are going to be 27 this year. Strasburg isn't even 24 yet. These guys are just entering their prime years. Why should we expect them to NOT replicate their success from last year? It's not like any of them had MONSTER seasons. Gio had a 137 ERA+. Zimmerman was at 134. Great seasons, to be sure, but we're not talking about 2010-2011 Halladay type seasons. These are not the type of years from which I'd just automatically expect some sort of precipitous or even significant decline.

And as far as Strasburg, he threw ~175 innings last year at 125 ERA+, which isn't even close to what most project his ceiling to be. There's well founded talk that he might be the best pitcher in baseball over the next handful of years, and this isn't based on projection, as evidenced by his career 2.94 ERA, 2.47 FIP, 2.56 xFIP and 2.61 SIERA.

Yes, it's only 251 IP, and anything could happen, but if I were a betting man, I'd expect the Nationals rotation, devoid of serious injuries, to be better than last year if for no other reason than I expect Strasburg to be a complete stud.

Hmm...its almost as if they have a better offense than us too.

Maybe that's it. Also, maybe its that a bunch of mid-20s pitchers have a greater chance of repeating success than guys in the early to mid 30s like Lee and Halladay.

I wonder how much time Halladay gets to reinvent himself as a junkballer, given that it's likely to be an up and down process. Probably depends on how the rest of the rotation holds up, how far out of first they might be with that diminished staff, their mediocre defense, and whatever they get from Utley and Howard. And if someone on the farm starts out on a tear. I imagine if Halladay sits around 4.50 era and pitches into the 6th inning most games, he keeps his job. If he struggles to perform to that level, I don't envy Manuel and Amaro for the conversation they will have to have with him about moving to the pen, going on the DL, or getting released.

Also interesting about the projections is they expect Lee to equal or best Hamels every single one of the stats they project.

As for their methodology, it really is puzzling. They're calling for a dramatic reduction in NL IP-as-a-Starter, with only a few teams outperforming (and not by much) their numbers from 2012.

In 2012, NL starting staffs averaged 954 IP, but the Phillies had 1033. In 2011 it was 971 and 1064. Their articles suggest that the NL average in 2013 will be 918 IP, which (unless they're assuming that "other guys" will be tossing 150 innings as starters) will be the lowest it's been since at least the twentieth century. In order to get the same number of Starter-IP (SIP?) as 2012, "no-name guys" would have to toss 540 innings.

Their projection still indicates Phillies starters will outperform the NL average, but they also indicate that we'll drop over 100 IP from last year - a year when Halladay only tossed 156, and Lee spent a while on the DL as well (although still managed 211). That's a... Pretty bold prediction, if they're already factoring in the 6th and 7th starters.

Cliff Lee turns 35 on August 30th. They're screwed for any run in September.

With Johan on the DL also, I'm not super-upset at the prospect of facing them in the 2nd week of the season.

Admittedly, April for them looks to be a roller-coaster anyway, with the Marlins for 5, Twins for 3, Rockies for 4, as well as the Phillies for 6, and 3 each for Nats, Dodgers and Padres.

Blog authors are responding to trolls now? Oh boy, should be a great season. How many blog entries on Halladay can we really have when nothing has changed?

Fatti, I call it "career years" because, by definition, "their best years to date" are in fact career years.

No, I do not expect a precipitous falloff, but neither do I expect any of them, except Strasburg, to approach what Halladay and Lee have done in their best years.

My suspicion is that their rotation will be a mixed bag, with some of them performing slightly better than last season, and some worse. Overall, even with Strasburg back for a full season, I expect the overall rotation performance to drop off a bit.

Also, they better hope that no serious injuries occur. Young isn't there anymore providing depth, and as the fangraphs authors note, rotation depth is a serious concern.

I've noted before on these pages that the singular best move the Nats made during the offseason was signing Soriano. Before they did that I thought the Phils had an outside shot (very outside, though) at catching the Nats. Not anymore.

I just don't think their rotation wil be as good as it was last season.

awh: You okay man? You're jumping over Corey's jock about something incredibly small. Take a breather.

I just don't think their rotation wil be as good as it was last season.

Posted by: awh | Tuesday, March 26, 2013 at 10:19 AM

That's fine. I have no problem with that opinion. And given their lack of depth, it's certainly a possibility (though, I think they'll acquire depth at some point during the season).

I just take issue with the fact that you seem to paint it as being unreasonable when people do project the Nats rotation to be as good or better than last year. It's likely that they are, especially if Strasburg puts up a 225 IP, ~160 ERA+ season, which would more than offset any non-precipitous decline in performance by Zimmerman and Gonzalez.

I don't envy Manuel and Amaro for the conversation they will have to have with (Doc) about moving to the pen, going on the DL, or getting released.

Posted by: PhillyRhetoric | Tuesday, March 26, 2013 at 10:00 AM

Short of Doc going all Nuke LaLoosh and beaning the Phanatic every game, there's no way he gets released.

"I don't know why you'd feel particularly inclined to grab Stutes over Valdes, and I don't see how "track record" can really be used to support Stutes over Valdes."

Don't mean to change the topic but wanted to address this from the last thread. I agree that Valdes should make the team and Stutes should go to AAA. I don't really see how anyone could disagree with that, given what each did last year & in spring training.

But, by mid-season, I think it's more likely that Stutes will be on the roster & Valdes will be in AAA. It's kind of hard for me to believe that, at age 34, Valdes suddenly went from being a middling strikeout pitcher to an elite one. I suspect that his 2012 numbers, including his strikeout numbers, are unrepeatable. But if he can come anywhere close to repeating them, he is clearly better than Stutes.


Let's kill the Italics now, yah?

Can we just stop using italics and bold in messages? Do they really add anything to your comment that can't be replicated by CAPS LOCKS?

bap: Exactly. Ask anyone on Earth whether they'd take Valdes over Stutes in March 2012.

Now all of a sudden in March 2013, Valdes is supposed to be the unanimous choice over Stutes?

As bap states, i am on board with Valdes being ahead of Stutes at the time being - but the chances of those two flipping on the depth chart is extremely easy to see happen.

Yes they do

Used properly, italicization and emboldening greatly increase the functional use of the language - especially when talking about baseball and its numerous acronyms.

After all. IS THIS THE END OF HALLADAY'S ERA? Or is it just the end of Halladay's ERA?

If Galvis can play the outfield you can trade Mayberry and bring up Ruf between spot starts at first dh ph and a handful of starts in left he could get 200 abs this could really help this team.As for Halladay I do not think there is anyway to know till he pitches in season really hoping for the best.

I wish we could just use blockquotes instead...the formatting is far easier to read in the long run

Thoughts

phillibuster: no, they dont. You italized the work "In" to start the sentence "In 2012, the NL averaged X IP". You just love to italize words, period.

I agree lorecore, Phillibuster is an Italicizer of the most grotesque degree.

i owe MG big time for taking the wrap as a poor typer/speller. Without him I would be destroyed daily.

I do love to italicize words, but the reason I did so for "in" is because the previous sentence had also ended with 2012.

Context is terribly important with regards to grammar and formatting.

If Galvis can play the outfield you can trade Mayberry and bring up Ruf between spot starts at first dh ph and a handful of starts in left he could get 200 abs this could really help this team.As for Halladay I do not think there is anyway to know till he pitches in season really hoping for the best.

Posted by: cloyd | Tuesday, March 26, 2013 at 10:38 AM


I have seen this numerous times here and on other websites. Why is there a feeling that Mayberry is worth anything in a trade? Or I should say what is Mayberry worth that is more valuable than what he currently is right now?

Well the idea...

Roy Halladay

is to use such html coding sparingly.

Sorry for my all-italics post. Admittedly, it was my first time trying to use such a tag, and I swear I had a close tag at the end...unless I somehow still didn't do it right. To harken back to a thread a few weeks ago, please don't send me down to GoodPhight or any other minor league blog.

I must say, NEPP's idea of blockquotes does seem much easier and just as effective.

blockquotes and/or italics...its honestly not a big deal for a good number of us to fix it when someone leaves a code open anyway.

Not really a big deal to me.

The Phils appear to be trying to putting a 'square hole into a round peg' with Galvis. I just hope that Cholly doesn't actually decide to start Galvis in the OF this year or use his as a 'defensive replacement.'

Also, unless I'm very much mistaken, I've yet to leave an open italics tag on any of my posts. In fact, I've closed those of others, because it's an incredibly simple thing to do, and you can even "over-close" ones left open without any visible effect on the forum.

If the possibility of dangling italics tags bothers you terribly, simply start all of your posts with "" and you'll always close any open tags from before. It won't even appear visibly on your post.

Awesome, so they don't allow the CODE tag...

***I just hope that Cholly doesn't actually decide to start Galvis in the OF this year or use his as a 'defensive replacement.'
***

In UC's mind, all utility IFs can play the OF...which is why we've gotten to see Mini Mart, Valdez, Bruntlett and now Galvis in the OF.

It boggles the mind.

to close italics...start the post off with

< / i > without any of the spaces.

Close yer tags properly, capiche?

NEPP: How are we to know the upper bound of a player's universal versatility statistic (ViAP, or Versatility in Any Position) if we don't plug him in at every position?

I feel better about Galvis in the OF than I did with Mini Mart, but that's not saying much.

Look, if you want to use italics, use them. It's no big deal. It just happens often enough that they get left open, and I don't think they actually enhance a post that much anyhow. Just doesn't seem worth the trouble.

This whole page could be in italics, and I'd still visit and comment. It doesn't really bother me.

Corey is feisty today

Moving a utility infielder to the outfield is fun and all but I'd love to see it the other way around. How about tossing Dom Brown at SS for a game or, better yet, Delmon Young?

How cool would that be to see?

If it doesn't bother you, why are you actively against their use?

I'm not trying to be snarky here - this is an honest question.

Jose Arredondo out of options with the Reds and is apparently not going to make their ridiculously good pen.

If the Phillies consider Stutes is in the run for a job, then its a no brainer to see what it would take to add him.

Its a well-noted fact that a poster's ability to use html coding degrades significantly once they hit Age 35. The incidence of open ended tags goes up nearly 300% after one's 35th birthday.

The body does to begin to physically start breaking down at 30-35.

Philli, because whenever a tag is left open, it always become a big to-do, and THAT annoys me.

If everyone closed their tags properly, or if people never used them, that'd be great. But some posters inevitable screw it up.

NEPP: To be fair- Bruntlett did have some starting experience in the outfield when he came here.

"...please don't send me down to GoodPhight or any other minor league blog."


Boy, I playfully bust someone's chops about this being BL - the big leagues - and people here jump all over me.

A day later nokwurst does the same thing and not a post from the BL police. Daouble standard? :)

(Whine over.)

This team is amazing. The obsession with Rule 5 picks, the necessity to play every utility infielder in the outfield, the apparently unironic emphasis on "production."

Sometimes I think they do things just to provoke comments on BL. Signing Delmon Young, for instance. Or playing Freddy Galvis in LF/RF with a straight face.

TTI - Bruntlett did and if I remember correctly Jimy Williams was one of the guys who suggested him as a defensive replacement for Burrell in '08 after Taguchi struggled early that season a couple of times late in games.

I was going to write something similar to Jack's 11:07 post, but I'll just agree with his.

Versatility!

awh, your post wasn't playful. You excoriated bittel multiple times, and told him to go to another blog where his kind would be welcomed.

If it was a big joke, you are pretty awful at conveying humor on a blog. It came off pretty damn serious.

And weird. It came off very weird, too.

Fatalotti: I agree that people complaining about it is disruptive, but rather than call for something not to be used, I would think education would be the better solution.

Like why we don't refrain from using some of the advanced SABR stats just because not everybody understands them - we just point those who don't in the direction of a description (or provide it ourselves).

awh: I guess because I called myself out on it, then it's ok? I dunno.

NEPP: that's more funny than you know...I turned 35 two weeks ago.

Also, awh, I'm pretty sure nokwurst was playing on the meme you created with that post yesterday.

awh: stfu - you've mentioned you were joking about 5 times now. You are simply regretful of what you posted, rightfully so. You ended your 3 paragraph "joke" by saying "go make a fool out of yourself somewhere else". yuk yuk yuk.

Signing D. Young in and of itself was fine. It was a low-ris flyer. It was just the comments by Amaro about him being the possible starter in RF that were kind of odd.

Galvis playing the OF doesn't make sense especially since he hasn't played there a single inning in his professional career.

Probably stems in part from Cholly's view (utility INF can play the corner OF for some reason) and the simple fact that the Phils don't have a 5th OF right now they like very much.

"In UC's mind, all utility IFs can play the OF...which is why we've gotten to see Mini Mart, Valdez, Bruntlett and now Galvis in the OF.

It boggles the mind."

I don't find it particularly mind-boggling to believe that a utility infielder should be able to play the OF without much difficulty. I find it mind-boggling that any manager would ever WANT his utility infielder to play the OF in an actual game. Unless you've got one of the rare utility infielders who is a half-way decent hitter, pretty much every team in baseball would be better off going with the 6th or 7th best outfielder in their system than with their best utility infielder.

It is less about what Mayberry is worth to other teamsand kinda more about the fact you could probably replace his offensive production in about half as many abs.There is a pretty lenghthy list of players who played in both the infield and the outfield,if you can follow the ball off the bat your halfway there already John Kruk played right field and he wasnt in great shape probably the slowest player at that time I thought he did a pretty good job

BAP: Look, if you have to put Galvis in LF to get his bat in the lineup, that's what you have to do. With that kind of offensive production, you make room in the field for him.

I would love to hear Sandberg off the record on what he thinks about Galvis playing in the OF.

Ezequiel Carrera and Julio Borbon are in the same mold of Ender Inciarte - plus speed in all 3 OF positions with little bat - only they actually have some limited MLB expereince. Both are out of options and available for cheap/nothing most likely.

Borbon is a former 1st rounder whose probably has more upside, but Carrera looks to utilize his speed on offense much better.

Neither are good fits, but when compared to Inciarte, its a no brainer.

Perhaps part of the reason they're putting the UIs in the outfield is to see if we can afford to carry a pure bench bat (Ruf, DYoung) this year, or if we have to devote that space to someone who can actually play the field.

Philli, if you want to set up some workshops, I'd gladly attend.

Ramon Hernandez about to be released. Washed up Hernandez > Lerud/Quintero I believe.

Fatalotti: Hah! Considering my HTML knowledge largely consists of utilizing my Google-Fu, I would think that the following link would be more useful:

http://www.w3schools.com/html/html_formatting.asp

Philli, but be honest, I've considered learning HTML, but personally, I've yet to see the benefit. I don't need the knowledge for work (yet). But when I do, I'll show off my impressive Google-Jitsu.

italics for FAT

It is also pretty damn difficult for me to imagine even an emergency scenario in which I'd want Freddy Galvis in LF. I mean, if he's in the game at all, why the hell would you play him at the least important defensive position on the field, while leaving weaker defensive players to play 2nd and 3rd base? If you want to play around with emergency contingency plans, it ought to be Utley and/or M. Young who are being tried in LF.

So for all the angst on this site spent over the last couple months on has-beens (or never-weres) Aaron Cook, Rodrigo Lopez and Yuniesky Betancourt... all were released.

I'd say this could be a lesson going into next spring training, but I'm sure we'll generate just as much angst for the next weak spring training filler player who's not going to make the team anyway.

Did I close the loop?

BOLD FOR FAT

Short answer it allows you to do other things you otherwise would not be able to do.

Was Cook released?

Good to hear.

Well that just screwed the heck out of Fangraph's projections... Now who'll they get to take Halladay's missing 20 innings?

KAS, considering the psychological trauma that Mini-Mart cast upon as all when he was continually not released, fat chance that we'll ever trust the Phillies to release other crappy players when they ought to.

Not sure of the cause, but UC defintely appears to have some issue/fascination w/ a super-sub that can play IN & OF. Another exhibit is his selection of Infante for the ASG the other year.

Maybe he lost the very first game he managed b/c of no such player in a needed situation? Gotta be some traumatic cause for his issue.

So basically our 6th starter (and possibly 5th starter if Doc isn't healthy) is Tyler Cloyd?


That's not scary at all.

seriously though, who cares about aaron cook and yuniesky betancourt? The phillies are an 85 win team +6 with a full year of Utley, Howard, and a healthy Halladay, -6 with any combination of injuries to that group.

corey: is Ender making the team a foregone conclusion? You don't have any OF battles in the header.

Amaro did a great job this offseason signing a veteran starter to a minor league deal. Signed RoLo (horrible signing and I bet doesn't even get picked up by a AAA team) and Cook.

Getting another starter right now is far and away the team's biggest need.

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