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Sunday, March 10, 2013


Who's going to mention Hamels' 'doesn't count' rocking at the hands of the Dominican Republic first?

Would love to see Hamels put together a 20 win, Cy Young year.

NEPP: Yeah I don't think he will be a high on base guy either. Just a guy who has a little better power than you would think and plays some slick defense. A lot of teams have a guy just like that in their starting lineup. The key is what is around them.

With Ruf getting hurt- although he seems okay- and not showing great ability defensively I think we are starting to see a chance (albeit small) that Inciarte makes the roster to start.

***Just a guy who has a little better power than you would think and plays some slick defense. A lot of teams have a guy just like that in their starting lineup. The key is what is around them.***

Exactly, he'll be an 8-hole hitter but one that doesnt kill you.

Comment by NEPP: "Exactly, he'll be an 8-hole hitter but one that doesnt kill you."

Good assessment although he is still developing.

Mike G, I agree with you that Ruf hasn't proven he's ready to play the OF yet at the ML level. He still has to prove that.

But here's the thing. If you are going to remove Ruf because you have fear that either his bat won't play at this level or his glove won't play at this level, you then don't turn around and replace him with a player in Delmon Young who has already proven that neither his bat nor his glove play at this level.

So, you either just give the keys to Ruf and hope that he turns into a ML player or play a strict platoon there with Mayberry and Nix (both of whom can field a corner position, and at least hit for power against opposite handed pitching).

Putting Delmon Young there is just a ensuring yourself of poor production out of a corner position, both defensively AND offensively.

Fata, when did I say anything about putting DYoung out there. I even started by saying I was in no way endorsing DYoung. I agreed when NEPP said he expected the starting outfield to be Brown, Revere, and Mayberry/Nix.

Mike G, the trouble with a starting OF of Brown, Revere, and Nixberry (aside from the fact that it leaves Ruf, who's already 26, to sit another year in AAA) is the fact that it won't last. If Ruf doesn't make the roster, then Delmon Young will be one of the Phillies' starting corner outfielders as soon as he comes off the DL; Rube and Cholly's obsession with "name brand" players practically guarantees it. If Ruf doesn't make the roster and hold his own in April (or if Brown pulls a Ben Francisco in April), we will be forced to watch Delmon Young in the five-hole for months, teaming with Ryno for back-to-back strikeouts.

One more thing--I think we're going to be lamenting Rube's failure to land Willingham in the Revere trade for a long time to come. Had I been GM, I'd have seriously offered the Twinkies both Brown and Ruf (Morneau is approaching FA, after all) along with Worley and/or May for a package of Willingham and Revere. That would have given us both a LF and a CF, and Nixberry could have held down RF quite nicely for the 2013 season.

Willingham is going to be 34 this year, AT.

Why in the world would you sacrifice the prime years of Brown's career (along with Ruf) for a 34 year old corner OF who plays awful defense?

Sure, he can hit, but at 34, there's no guarantee that continues for much longer.

After attending the game today my first question is:
What could we get for Mayberry?
If Nix hits anything near like he did today,it will be hard to keep him on the bench.Too bad one of the reserve infielders don't play OF. They all looked good today.Frandsen and Galvis should stick. It depends on what they want to do with Freddy.
MYoung can hit but don't expect him to catch much not hit right at him.
Another 1 hitter so all pitchers looked good.Hernandez saved 1 hit with a great defensive play.Kratz finally came up with a timely hit.
Inciarte appeared to be overmatched but he does have good wheels.
Peacock looked good for the Astros.

So glad we have Cole.

jr, who is your backup CF if you trade Mayberry?

Good news for team USA, Matheison is still in the game.

Nix hits a HR in a ST game, and we forget that he has a career .526 OPS against LHP, and only has a .744 OPS against RHP.

He's a bench player.

@Mike G



Good idea!

Love seeing Larry bowa and the passion he still has for the game.

Larry Bowa's a pompous ass.

Elaborate on Larry's ass please

Maybe trade Mayberry for a backup cf,Rube loves his rule five guys.Just 2 possibilities. For those who don't read carefully,I'll let you try again.
If Nix hits anything near like he did today,it will be hard to keep him on the bench. IF,if,if,if....
Until they play games on paper.....

Galvis put up this line vs RHP last year:

.208/.231/.331 (.562 OPS) with 1 HR in 137 PAs

Unless you have one of the best offensive teams in the NL, that bat kills your offense especially if you put him in the 8th hole because Galvis is a hacker who almost never BBs.

Also hits into a bunch of GDPs too (6 last year in just 200 PAs) because of the amount of GBs he hits & his lack of speed.

I am interested to see him play more at 3B this spring to see if he should be a late innings defensive replacment. Frandsen does nothing for me there late in a game as a defensive replacement because of weak arm & lack of quick reflexes.

Kind of surprised to see that Martin and Joseph will begin the year at Lehigh.

MG, nobody said he was there yet...we just said he has a future.

He was never supposed to play at the MLB level last year.

D. Young can help the team if he is a PT role-player who plays in LF and starts vs LHP. These are his numbers vs LHP the last 3 years:

.307/.347/.500 (.847 OPS) with 20 HRs in 488 ABs

That's very good production even at a corner OF spot and more than enough to offset his defensive liabilities.

Just horribly miscast as a full starter in RF and the Phils have two guys (Mayberry & Ruf) who already fill that roll potentially.

If Brown locks down the RF spot (I hope the Phils have the common sense to just start him there and leave him there everyday at the beginning of the year), they can get by with a combo of Nix, Mayberry, and D. Young in LF.

Whose the starter at C in Lehigh? Martin or Valle?

NEPP - Galvis is never going to be a guy who BBs alot but if he can get his overall numbers up vs RHP say above .600 this year to get his overall OPS to ~.650 or slightly above, he might have potential as an everyday player.

Chris - I thought it would be Valle and that a guy like Lerud would be the backup to start the year.

Pretty surprised that Joseph was mentioned as a strong possibility there.

Torre is actually a pretty lousy in-game manager. Diehard Yanks' fans knew that and I bet Dodgers' fans do too.

Torre really benefited from managing in the AL and his skill in dealing with the NY sports media which made portrayed as a baseball with great managing acumen because the Yanks won all of those WS titles.

Still think Cholly is a slightly worse manager at making pitching decisions but even I wouldn't argue that Cholly got the better of him in the '08 and '09 NLCS series overall.

Watching Grady Little manage vs. Torre is kind of how I feel like when Cholly manages against Fredi.

Generally fans on both teams hopes there guy doesn't screw up more with Little/Torre greatly benefiting from having managed in the AL at the time.

Most nights they could go to sleep until the 6th inning.

AT: "the fact that it leaves Ruf, who's already 26, to sit another year in AAA"

Ruf is 26, but he has never been in AAA yet.

MG: it took you a bunch of words and posts but eventually you got to what NEPP and I were saying. Galvis has clear flaws but there is upside there and he could be an everyday contributor should he reach that. No more no less.

Did I read that correctly? AT would have offered Brown, Ruf, Worley and May for Willingham and Revere? If you were a GM, you would be promptly fired.

I think d young will help squad . Like it or not he will be rf if healthy.

The funny part of that trade proposal is that 100% of BL is against it, but 50% think its because DOM is involved and the other 50% would say Ruf.

RedBurb, my thoughts exactly.

I'll add to it: Not only would you be promptly fired, you would never get another job as an MLB GM - at least not from a sane ownership group.

Although I'm not surprised. AT has shown his hatred of Brown for a few years now. He has wanted to get him out of the organization at all costs.

If Galvis is a starter at SS for a few years, I would bet it is much more likely because this team has fallen a peg or two than Galvis showing notable offensive improvement.

Who's going to mention Hamels' 'doesn't count' rocking at the hands of the Dominican Republic first?

EF- What I hope that means is that Cole will have a great year and save his one bad outing for the All Star game which, despite Mr. Selig's propaganda efforts, doesn't count.

Bubba: It soitinly does matter. Cole blowing the ASG means Ruf gets to DH 4 games instead of 3 in the WS.

MG: if you keep Galvis in the bigs, then yes. If you give him a chance to work on his approach in the minors, he has a chance. He shows signs of ability to barrel up and hit into the gaps, but he is completely lost vs MLB pitching when it comes to finding good pitches to hit.

AAA is filled with junkballers that could really benefit him from identifying pitches better, it was a no-brainer for me until they went out and signed Betancourt. Now there isn't really a 'right' move.

Conway- A risk I'm willing to take!

Very glad to see Galvis apparently healthy and playing well.

Personally, it has felt really good to hear and see ongoing (mostly) positive things about the team thus far. Last year it seemed like a constant storm day after day of injuries and problems.

When is official clout day?

Clout Day is March 20th, right?

That is correct.

Good. I still have a little time to decorate my house and mail my Clout Day cards.

I am so sick of these damned madeup holidays that Hallmark keeps pushing on us.

Here's a timely writeup on Galvis:

Charlie Manuel on Freddy Galvis:
Dave Murphy, CSN: ——Charlie Manual is convinced of two things: 1) He can get Galvis 250 at-bats over the course of the season; 2) 250 at-bats at the major league level would be more beneficial to Galvis than 450 at-bats in the minors. “I think the way he plays the game, if he hit .260, .270, he’s going to be a big-time player, man,” Manuel said, then referring to an example from his Cleveland days. “I saw Omar Vizquel when he hit like .190, and that’s part of the reason why we got him in a trade, and he did nothing but improve. Freddy can definitely do that.”
Vizquel, the 11-time Gold Glove shortstop, hit just .256/.315/.314 in his first seven seasons in the majors. But from the ages of 29 to 39 he hit .285/.355/.382. “I think last year, he was new, and they were not afraid in situations to throw him fastballs,” Manuel said. “I think now that they know him a little bit they will probably work him him a little different. But he can definitely handle it. He can make adjustments.

Pretty much my feelings on the matter. Galvis is already a better hitter than Vizquel was when he broke into the Majors.

Vizquel had a .592 OPS (60 OPS+) in his first 1198 career PA (Age 22-24 seasons). He didnt really break out as a hitter till Age 25 where he posted a 95 OPS+. That alone is why I'm so bullish on Galvis and why I'm not really concerned about him developing at the MLB level. Vizquel did it and so did any number of glove first middle-infielders.

For those interested and knowledgeable enough in the subject to critique the validity of such a list, FanGraphs has released their top 100:

Phillies have but one on the list (Biddle at 89). Thoughts?

I believe March 20th is also "National Proposal Day." What a terrible terrible idea.

Nix is slated to play a lot as part of the platoon. And since Nix, D. Young and Brown are all elevated injury risks, we're going to need all of them, including Ruf and perhaps Inciarte. I don't mind seeing Ruf get more defensive seasoning in the minors. It's one thing to butcher plays every once in a while in spring training. It's another to be out there in the regular season when opposing MLB hitters are going to be gunning towards LF. It also makes an impact on Phillies pitchers who might shy away from pitching on the LF side of the plate when he's in on defense.

Right now, if I'm a Phillies pitcher, I feel pretty good about the INF defense overall and would feel better about pitching to contact in the strike zone with a defense of Mayberry/Nix, Revere/Inciarte and Brown in the outfield.

Willingham can mash, but he certainly cannot field.

***Phillies have but one on the list (Biddle at 89). Thoughts?

Posted by: Fatalotti | Monday, March 11, 2013 at 09:46 AM


He's at # 88 actually...and that list seems pretty much in line with most of the others. BP is also down on Biddle and Adam Morgan (he's not on their Top 100 either).

I like Biddle...I like him a lot. I think he ends up as another Randy Wolf in the next year or two for us. I could even see him slotting into the 5th spot of the rotation as soon as 2014.

I wouldn't have given up a big package just for Willingham; I'm saying I would have put together that package for Willingham and Revere together. Throwing in Brown might have made the Twins more willing to completely empty their 2012 starting outfield by giving up Willingham along with Revere. And, had I given up Ruf and Brown, I'd have held back either Worley or May and tried to get the Twins to settle for another, lesser pitching prospect. That would have settled the Phillies LF and CF problems for 2013 and 2014, and solved the RH power bat problem that still haunts us (we wouldn't now be looking at Delmon Young as a starter come May). Willingham also had the enormous advantage (over someone like Pence) of being under a fixed contract--no arbitration money to worry about.

How do you know that such a deal wasn't offered? Perhaps the Twins simply did not want to trade their entire OF in one offseason.

May has struggled early in camp (6 BBs, 2 Ks) and Worley has been hit in both of his starts.

More I look at Worley's numbers and the more I think he has a major uptick in his numbers (not in a good way).

He's had very good numbers so far with RISP and men on base that are below his overall career numbers. Also has had very good numbers vs opposing pitchers.

Also starts to get hit hard from the 5th inning on/3rd time through the order.

Without having such an easy hitter to face in the 9th spot, his IP/GS are even going to decrease a bit more and I anticipate his K/9 falling a bit.

I would bet that Revere has a better season than Worley in 2013.

But then I also think that Revere will be a guy that regularly bats .300 with great defense even if he has zero power.

Something tells me that rolo just got to work on a long post about Worley's pre-injury and post-injury numbers.

I'd imagine he could just cut/paste from his previous efforts.

Maybe the idea that the Twins would want Darin Ruf to replace Justin Morneau in their lineup going forward isn't exactly realistic.

I mean, who doesnt want Darin Ruf? Its not like other teams have bat-only, DH-type guys in their upper minors just laying around. Those type of hitters/players are pretty rare.

I'll say it again... Galvis had a .716 combined OPS at age 21 in AA and AAA in 2011.

Why are we pretending like his bat will never play as a regular at the ML level?

Using Vizquel as an example, he had a .642 combined OPS at age 21 in AA and AAA in 1988.

In Vizquel's first three seasons, he averaged 400 plate appearances and a .572 OPS (60 OPS+). According to Fangraphs, he had a WAR of 0.3, 1.6 and 2.2 those three seasons.

In 1992, Vizquel had his first solid offensive season with a .692 OPS (95 OPS+) and he had a Fangraphs WAR of 3.9.

If Galvis' glove is as good as advertised, he'll be a valuable player if he can get an OPS between .675 and .700. Anything above that makes him very valuable.

Vizquel, it should be noted, had a good batting eye from Day 1. He couldn't hit early in his career, but he had generally drawn a lot of walks in the minors. So the building blocks were there.

I'm reasonably confident that Galvis can learn to hit well enough to be a starting shortstop somewhere. Whether he can learn to hit well enough to actually be a halfway decent starting shortstop is another issue. I could see him turning into Jack Wilson -- (but without the two .790 OPS seasons).

bay_area_phan: In Wilson's age 25-31 seasons, he averaged just over 2 WAR per season and two of his seasons had his WAR depressed by a negative fielding WAR which certainly appear to be outliers.

Wilson's OPS over those 7 seasons was .706 (84 OPS+).

KAS: That's why I added the caveat: without the two .790 OPS seasons. If you take those out, that OPS goes down considerably. Wilson basically had 2 really good seasons. In every other season, he was a terrific defensive shortstop but an utterly wretched hitter. That made him good enough to start for a lousy Pirates team, but I certainly would not have wanted him starting on my team. Which was exactly my point about where Galvis is likely to end up.

KAS: I would think that any of Galvis' numbers within a year-or-so of his testing positive for steroids are likely suspect. Especially when his ISO jumped by over .050 points (close to 2/3 of what his previous ISO had been) in 2011.

Also, the over-.700 part of his 2011 OPS was posted in AA. AAA was a potentially non-SSS (121 ABs), but he only posted a .678 there. His K% has moved around a little, but was largely static the last 3 years.

While I tend to think that projections for first/second-year guys aren't great indicators overall... In his projections, only ZiPS thinks he'll post an OPS above .675 (.676), and nobody else thinks he'll knock much about .650 - if he even gets there.

bay_area_phan: Well, Wilson was still in A-ball at age 21. It's hard to say how the two would compare in the minors. At age 21, Galvis had a .716 OPS in AA and AAA. Wilson had an OPS of .779 in A and AA at age 22.

Wilson certainly had a better ability to get on base at each level than Galvis has shown so far.

If Galvis turns into Jack Wilson, I would be more than thrilled.

I always thought he was a bit overlooked and underrated simply because he played in Pittsburgh on some below average/awful teams.

If the Phils are going to avoid bottoming out and going through a painful rebuilding, they need guys like Galvis to turn into a decent everyday player at SS who is adequate enough offensively (~.680 OPS).

I just don't think he is capable of doing that but I hope I am wrong. He is a fun player to watch defensively & would be a nice heir apparent to JRoll in another year or two at SS.

Philibuster: Galvis tested positive in 2012, not 2011. And the minor leagues have more stringent testing than the majors. Seems a little unreasonable to assume his numbers were artificially boosted by PEDs.

Lots of players see boosts in their ISO by getting older. Galvis is still very young professionally speaking.

I think an OPS between .650 and .675 is pretty fair for Galvis this year.

I am really glad though that the Phils are apparently set on taking Galvis as their utility infielder and not given any real serious consideration to Betancourt regardless of what he does this spring.

That's a nice change especially since Galvis is a better fit for this team right now even though he isn't a 'veteran' who is an 'established MLB player.'

NEPP: "I would bet that Revere has a better season than Worley in 2013."

bap: "Something tells me that rolo just got to work on a long post about Worley's pre-injury and post-injury numbers."

Neither, I just wouldn't take that bet, because Worely hasn't pitched enough this Spring to know anything.

Obviously I'm bullish on Galvis. I'm concerned he doesn't walk enough, but I believe his glove will more than make up for his offensive woes.

This isn't the mid-90s to early-2000s anymore. There's aren't going to be a bunch of big hitting, great glove SS as we've seen. We've been pretty blessed by J-Roll.

I hope as Galvis gets older and gains experience that he can become a .700 OPS guy.

KAS: To be clear, I wasn't really using Jack Wilson as any sort of statistically precise "comp." I just picked him because, for all but 2 seasons of his career, he was a weak offensive player with a great glove that enabled him to maintain a starting job on a bad team. That is kind of what I see as Freddy Galvis's most likely outcome. But maybe he'll improve his hitting more than I anticipate, and he'll turn into Omar Vizquel. Stranger things have happened.


Supposedly he didn't pitch that well in the 2 WBC games he appeared in. Curious to see how he responds now that he is back in the Phils' camp & if he can immediately put it behind him.

MG: Did someone in the organization make a specific comment that led you to believe Betancourt isn't being considered for the roster? I would assume that he IS being considered.

bay_area_phan: Yep, I get your point. I was curious to see if there were any parallels, but they were hard to find. In terms of actual production (WAR, for example), I'd think the Phils would be very happy if they got from Galvis what teams got from Wilson.

KAS: That's why I said within a year-or-so. I have no doubt the minors test harder, but I'm equally sure that some guys slip through without being any worse for wear. Remember, when Galvis was suspended that was already after he'd exhausted his appeals process - something that can take upwards of a month+, which means he'd been originally nailed closer to the start of the season.

An ISO boost is certainly feasible, but that was a pretty dramatic one considering where he'd been prior. If it wasn't a serum-based increase, I would expect it to drop again this year (though not all the way back into the .05x range). Considering that outside of the AA portion of his 2011 and last year (when he did test positive) his ISO has bounced around between .049 to .078, I don't think his super-.125 is sustainable.

I think nearer to .650 is believable (with an OBP about .025 points higher than his BA), but that makes him a poor hitter, and outside of the .675-.700 range you had set for him being a valuable player.

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