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Friday, March 01, 2013

Comments

If you're gonna put Rollins & Revere at the top of the lineup, it makes a ton more sense to have Revere lead off.

Charlie is going for that Pierre-Castillo look circa 2003.

NEPP: Picking up from the last thread, I think you have to start Martin in Triple A. This is his age 24 season. Give him a couple months and if he struggles, tell him to drop the curve and changeup and put him in the bullpen.

If Ruf really can't cut it in the field, would a Mayberry/Nix platoon be that bad? I mean it's not ideal, but Mayberry's numbers against lefties are MLB starter caliber, and Nix has some pop when healthy. Mix Delmon Young in there if he gets healthy and it isn't the end of the world.

The more I think about it, the crazier it seemed to think that Ruf was just going to make a seamless transition to the OF and become a legitimate ML starter. Guess it was just wishful thinking from optimistic fans. Also puts even more pressure on Brown to be legit.

***NEPP: Picking up from the last thread, I think you have to start Martin in Triple A. This is his age 24 season. Give him a couple months and if he struggles, tell him to drop the curve and changeup and put him in the bullpen.***

We are pretty much 100% in agreement on Martin.

I think the hopes tied to Ruf have helped ease the pressure on Brown and he seems to be flourishing.

It might be that its Spring Training and that winter is nearly over (the streams are running and the maple taps are in) but I'm very bullish on Dom Brown this year. I dont think he's gonna be a star in 2013 but I think he turns in a solid Age 25 season for us.

Anybody else want some red koolaid?

ZiPS projection for Brown is .335 / .461. I'll take the over.

Disclaimer: Koolaid does not apply to his defense.

I'd take a .796 OPS from Brown this year.

Regardless of the numbers and hard hits Brown has had so far, he definitely looks MLB hitterish. Of course, Eric Bruntlett once looked hitterish and Chan Ho Park once looked starting-pitcherish in spring training.

Bruntlett took David Price deep in the World Series! So take that!

I have never really had a problem with Brown's approach at the plate. Now that his grip is adjusted he hopefully won't roll over as many pitches.

Interesting group of pitchers this afternoon.

Wait, when was it, again, that Bruntlett looked hitterish? That one ST where he posted a 1.000 OPS? Because I don't think anybody really thought that was going to be perpetuated...

ZiPS has him at .796? That's pretty optimistic. Last year, that would've been put him third (200+ PAs) behind Ruiz and Frandsen (!!!) on the team last year. I agree that his OBA could be around .335 if he doesn't get messed up again this year. But the .461 implies a breakout year - that would put him up with the top 30 NL power hitters.

I don't think Brown will slug over .461. I do, however, think he can pretty easily post an OBP over .335.

I would be ok projecting something along the lines of .265/.350/.440, if you told me Brown was going to play all season and have a reasonably productive year.

"If you're gonna put Rollins & Revere at the top of the lineup, it makes a ton more sense to have Revere lead off."

Exactly, and I think these are unfortunately the only two choices in Manuel's mind.

"would a Mayberry/Nix platoon be that bad"

Did you watch this team last year?

Of the 4 projections listed on his FG page, ZiPS is the most bullish on his SLG. Bill James has him for a higher OBP though.

Averaging the 4 projections gives .338 / .445.

With Rollins and Revere hitting #1 and #2, I predict a lot of low leverage (nobody on, 2 out) plate appearances by our best hitter.

I think it's probably too early to say that Revere is definitely going to penciled in at the top of the lineup (or at least as #2 if he can't take the leadoff from Jimmy). He's hitting there a lot in early ST, but as we've all noted, pitchers aren't working on strategy this soon, but instead on location, arm slot, and (eventually) movement.

I'd think part of the reason Charlie's hitting him so high is so he can see more of him, because he's probably seen all of 5-10 Revere ABs in person prior to this Spring.

***Bruntlett took David Price deep in the World Series! So take that!***

David Price could end up as a first ballot HOF and that would still be my lasting impression of him.

Mayberry's numbers against lefties have been posted numerous times here, he can fill that role if he gets starts against lefties exclusively. I'm not ready to write Nix off after last year, he was injured basically all year.

in 2012, 70.2% of all batters faced were by right handed pitchers. A Nix/Mayberry platoon would be reliant on Nix playing most of the time.

He is a career .253/.297/.447 vs RHP, and as a 33 year old hasn't reached 400 PA in a season since 2004.

I like Nix and Mayberry as 4th/5th OF - but starting them in a platoon has no upside.

I'm not sure what my lasting impression of David Price would be. But I do know what my lasting impression of Bruntlett is and will forever be...

...cue Beerleaguer Rainout Game Thread image

I believe it was Clout who said that Bruntlett's 2008 ST hitting prowess would not only continue throughout the rest of his career, but lead to a significant hit that would enable the hometown good guys to become the first ever WFC.

I kid, I kid.

And yes, being a WFC is different from being a World Series Champion. It's a generation thing, I guess.

The major issue I've had with Brown (outside of his defense) is his swing. I know I'm not alone on this, especially here. So if that gets fixed, and it looks like it might, look out. Because the athletic ability is obviously there.

Does anyone know where the Phillies ranked on ESPN's future rankings?

Kevin Stocker: I believe I saw someone post them at 24th.

24th.

I love those preseason rankings.

Every single one of them predicted the giants to win the WS last year, and two of the last 3 WS.

I think the only reason the Mayberry Nix platoon didn't work last year was because Nix was barely on the field.

BP just introduced a stat that will probably be of interest to BL: the Bullpen (Mis)Management Tool.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19753

I love those preseason rankings.

Every single one of them predicted the giants to win the WS last year, and two of the last 3 WS.

Posted by: rolo | Friday, March 01, 2013 at 11:44 AM

What's your point?

if you don't know the future, then you are dumber than rolo.

The only reason, in my mind, to bat Revere 2nd is that he's a better bunter thanj Jimmy. And being as fast as he is, has a better chance to beat the paly as well.

***BP just introduced a stat that will probably be of interest to BL: the Bullpen (Mis)Management Tool.***

Is it just a picture of Charlie Manuel?

Nuts. I saw Miss Management and I thought it would be a photo of a hot chick in a business suit.

More than David Price, my most positive memory of the Gnome was the unassisted triple play against the Mets to end a game.

Per KLaw, Mike Trout reported to Angels camp looking like a hippo.

Seriously, what's up with that?

And I, too, agree that it makes more sense to bat Revere ahead of Rollins. Rollins has a better chance of knocking in Revere than vice versa and, since Revere is known as a base stealing threat, it gives Rollins a better chance of seeing a first pitch fastball. Which he will swing at. Because he always swings at the first pitch unless it hits the mascot.

How can your fondest memory of the Gnome not be his scoring the walk off run in game 3 of the WS or the game winning run in game 5B of the WS?

NEPP, when I watched the Angels "Big 3" presser a couple weeks ago, I thought the same thing.

Trout needs to bulk up and get more RBI, instead of all that wussy scoring runs stuff, if he ever wants to be the Most Valuable Player.

The Bruntbeard triple play thwarted what would've been another Lidge blown save that year. No thanks to himself; I believe the Beard booted an easy one to set up the circumstances.

But yes, scoring the winning run on the Chooch dribbler in the WS would be my fondest memory of his.

That was an awesome play all around...the Chooch dribbler/Bruntlett scoring run.

Appears that Trout tops the short list of players that DIDN'T show up in the best shape of their lives.

I seem to recall him actually being partially responsible for both of the runners that set up his "redemption" save.

In all honesty, Lidge probably should have asked the scorers to give Eric the official save, making him the best closer in history (1 save in 0 save opportunities).

JRoll swung first pitch each time Revere was on base ahead of him yesterday.

Not that it means anything in pre-season, but taking a pitch now and then might be a good idea.

This team, and really any team, is at its best when it's running up pitch counts against the other team's starter. Middle relief throughout baseball is godawful and the Phillies are notoriously slow starters in games. So, taking pitches, especially early in games, would seem to be sound strategy.

Strategy? What's that?

Quite honestly, I have no fond memory of Eric Bruntlett. He scored the winning run in the WS because Pat Burrell doubled & Pedro Feliz got a hit. Anyone could have scored that run. And he made the walk-off unassisted triple play because his own two misplays put two men on base. Other than that, he was a strong rival to Mini-Mart & Kim Batiste as the worst Phillie of the last 25 years.

Considering Jimmy's split when he hits the 1st pitch, I dont blame him for swinging.

Phillbuster: My memory was the same as yours. I distinctly remembered that he made back-to-back errors to put those men on base. But the box score shows the 9th inning sequence as a 3-base error by Howard, followed by an E4, followed by a single to 2nd base. So, what probably happened was that the single to 2nd base was actually some kind of misplay that didn't get charged as an error.

The save should have been given to Daniel Murphy (I believe he was the runner on first). He was stealing second, and since the batter was right handed, it was the Beard's job to cover 2nd base. If the Beard weren't covering, he doesn't get to that ball (or at least, has no shot of turning a triple lay), and it's likely 1st and 3rd with no outs, and a run across the board.

Rollins hitting the first pitch in his career: .333/.335/.516/.851, 27 HRs in 987 PAs

Actually, the other vivid memory I have about the Bruntlett triple-play is that my MLB.tv died right after Bruntlett's 2nd misplay, and I had to do a full reboot of my computer. When I logged back onto my computer, I was still in a rage and was fully expecting to see that the Phillies had lost. Instead, I went immediately to Gameday and saw the immortal words "In play Out. Unassisted triple play."

I think the clear implication is that Rollins should not be allowed anywhere near hitting second in the lineup. That should be Utley's permanent place if Revere is leadoff. Chances of that happening are near zero, however.

Did anyone notice Revere drive that ball to the outfield and split the gap yesterday? If he can do that just a little more often than in the past, it would be a real bonus.

never liked that stat... strips away all misses/fouls that led to 0-1 counts, which supress a hitter's ability moving forward.

Thinking about the lineup more, the best option that Charlies would go for might be Revere #1 and Rollins #6.

Does anyone think that's a possibility?

Wouldn't everyone's average and slugging on balls they hit be higher than their overall numbers? Since it takes away strikeouts?

Not to mention that a hitter is selective at 0-0, and so the fact that he swung indicates he thought the pitch was a good pitch to hit.

That doesn't mean swinging at more first pitches will improve his hitting. If anything, it might lead pitchers to throw fewer strikes at 0-0, leading to fewer hits.

BAP: An error by any other name, should smell as... Foul.

lorecore: Rollins hits just .241/.275/.375 after an 0-1 count in his career.

So yes, if you were actually looking at the merits of swinging at the first pitch, you'd have to account for the fact that he might foul/miss, in which case he'd be looking at a much worse chance of success in the AB.

***never liked that stat... strips away all misses/fouls that led to 0-1 counts, which supress a hitter's ability moving forward.***

I was just about to make that point. A better comparison might be that his BABIP overall is .287...his BABIP on the 1st pitch is .333 (as shown by the split above...though BABIP doesnt account for HRs as they're not "in play" so to speak so it'd probably ahve to be adjusted for that.

re: last thread about Adams 'being worth X wins'.

If a 'Win' in WAR is equal to a player's performance being worth 10 runs above replacement, than its not hard to figure that a player used in exclusively high leverage situations like a late inning reliever would have a lesser threshold for runs above replacement to equal a win.

So if Adamas is a ~2 WAR player, that means he's performed at a level to supress 20 more runs than replacement. If 80% of his IP are all high leverage, wouldn't 20 saved runs be good enough for more than just 2 'Wins'?

I'm having firewall issues with B-R.com so I cant pull Jimmy's splits right now.

lorecore: Yes, and that's one of the primary reasons why WAR does not equal actual wins. The distribution of your runs over/under replacement according to leverage will skew actual wins in one direction or the other.

Mark Prior signs minor league deal with the Reds. Yep, that Mark Prior -- the one who last pitched in the majors when he sported a 7.21 ERA in 2006. How can he be only 32?

Is this game broadcast on tv?

Brett: Usually only home games in ST. They are at Moneybags Park today.

YES Network is broadcasting the game, available on MLB.tv.

Rollins saw 7 pitches and worked a walk.

Take that, haters!

New thread.

My problem with the people criticizing Rollins for swinging at the first pitch is that the perception doesn't fit the reality. I can't find the stat right now, but I've seen that Rollins actually swings at the first pitch less than most lead-off guys, and swings at a fewer % of pitches overall than league average. He also swings at only 25% of pitches outside of the strike zone for his career (average is usually ~30%), so the idea that he's putting himself in a hole every time he swings and misses/fouls on the first pitch more often than not simply isn't true. He's swinging at strikes most of the time.

The complaints of him popping up or flying out all the time when he does put balls in play on the first pitch are even more prevalent. That's another myth. He hits for better average and power when he's putting the ball in play on the first pitch that his overall numbers.

I think we all agree that Rollins should be hitting lower in the order at this point in his career (he certainly shouldn't be hitting 2nd), but I think there's this mythical idea of an 'average' MLB lead-off hitter taking a ton more pitches than Rollins (and taking more first pitches) that, over his career, hasn't really been true.

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