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Friday, March 08, 2013

Comments

Dom Brown is en fuego.

NEPP and Iceman:

I think the gamble was unnecessary. You were already getting his best years through arbitration. Why was there such urgency to buy out his first free agent year (and possibly second)?

He's more likely to be on the decline by the time that first FA year comes along. If he were 2 or 3 years younger, I'd think it were a really good deal. Right now, I think it's an unnecessary gamble.

If he were 2-3 years younger, he wouldnt take such a deal.

It locks him up through his Age 32 season...hardly a risk there. I'd agree if that was Age 34 or Age 35. If anything, they're likely to get a huge bargain in those age 31 & 32 years instead of having to go get some FA 1B and pay through the teeth.

There's also a club option for 2018 so it could be 6 years of team control.

NEPP: On the other hand, if he gets injured again, there is no huge savings and that age 32 season may be a huge overpay.

I'm just not sure how much was gained by this deal. But he's just another slugging 1B. These tend to be the positions that are easiest to replace.

I disagree that Galvis is likely to start the year in AAA. Charlie was just quoted today in an article that they could get him ABs and not stunt his development.

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20130308_Inside_the_Phillies__Phillies_infielder_Freddy_Galvis_praised_for_his_defense.html

He could be a corner OF too if they didn't have a gaping hole at 1B.

Corey: Why would Frandsen's spring mean Galvis goes to AAA?

Guessing bench consists of: Quintero, Mayberry Jr., Inciarte, Frandsen, Galvis

This assumes Nix starts Opening Day since he'll platoon with Mayberry until Young returns. I have Inciarte instead of Ruf for the glove. The only question is whether someone like Betancourt beats out Galvis.

Oh, it's been a good week...

Except for PAPOCALYPSE!!!

Projected Opening Day position players, assuming 12 pitchers:

C: Kratz, Quintero
1B: Howard
2B: Utley
3B: Young
SS: Rollins
Util: Frandsen

OF: Brown
OF: Mayberry
OF: Nix
OF: Revere
OF: Ruf/Inciarte

At that point it comes down to Galvis, Betancourt, or the other side of Ruf/Inciarte.

Up until today the speculation from Clearwater had been that he would start in Triple-A to get regular PAs. Charlie's comments, especially the ones he made Friday, indicate otherwise.

Galvis obviously much more deserved of a roster spot than Betancourt.

NEPP: I generally agree with you that it's a good and fair deal.

But it's probably worth noting that when you're considering his "age 28" season this year, he turns 29 on July 18. So he's just about the oldest you could possibly be while being considered in your "age 28" season (I believe most people use a July 1 cutoff).

I know it's not too big a deal, and you have to draw a somewhat arbitrary line somewhere, but when talking about his age, it's good to keep in mind that he's older than you think. He turns 33 in the middle of that "age 32" season they just locked up. He's not young.

Corey: No way they keep 6 OFs. If Ruf doesn't make the team, he goes down to AAA.

I doubt Betancourt makes it over Galvis, but that's really the only chance Galvis doesn't make the roster. I never got the sense Galvis was in competition with Frandsen.

It all depends on whether they want Galvis to get everyday PA. If that's the case, he goes to AAA with Betancourt staying on the 25 man.

KAS: Craig could be a 0 WAR player for the next three years and I bet his arb numbers would still be about $5M/$7M/$9M. So unless Craig can't get on the field at all, this deal is barely any risk to them since they'd have to pony up over $20M just by tendering him over the years. If he is a average 2WAR player, then they're already basically saving money in terms of what he'd get in arb.

Jack and NEPP: I'm not saying it's a bad deal. I don't think it is. There's a solid chance they'll have a bargain for at least one year of the deal. I just wasn't sure it was a move they had to make right now.

In the end, maybe the cost certainty was worth the few extra million it may cost over the next 4 years.

That's some terrible analysis. Rollins and more so, Utley, will need rest on occasion and Young is no whiz at 3B, where Galvis could probably play. Defense was a weakness last year and would be this year if Galvis isn't on the roster and you think he's headed for Allentown? Almost zero chance of that happening. Even with the way Chollie manages his veterans and the late innings finding 350 AB's for Galvis shouldn't be a chore.

lorecore: Considering arbitration is designed to keep salaries low, his WAR is irrelevant over the next 4 years. He could be a 6 WAR player but they wouldn't have to pay him like one (sure, he could go to arbitration, but there are still limits).

That's my point about there being no urgency to the deal.

Either Galvis or Betancourt will make the team. Otherwise, there's no one on the bench who can play SS.

Utility IF PA by season for Philadelphia:
2012: 1120 (Wiggy, Galvis, Frandsen, Mini Mart, Luna, Fontenot & Orr)
2011: 638 (Valdez, Mini Mart, Orr)
2010: 726 (Valdez, Dobbs, Juan Castro, Ransom, Bocock)


So yes, Galvis would have a great shot at 300-400 PA if he stays on the 25 man...especially given that he can play 2B and SS for sure and can probably handle 3B.

Wilson Valdez is terrible. And in two years with the Phillies he managed 363 and 300 plate appearances.

KAS: I didn't mean to state WAR as a factor in arb - i meant to express his performance.

Basically, there is nothing Craig could do on the field that wouldn't reward him with a solid $5M next year in arb as long as he racked up the service time.

No hyperbole, if he went 0-600 next year, he would go to arb with 37 HR and 150 RBI and 3 years of service time, which is just about enough to get you around $5M.

If Ruf goes to AAA, is it totally inconceivable that the Phillies could keep 3 backup infielders & only 1 backup outfielder?

I'm not suggesting that's a good idea but I could actually see the Phillies convincing themselves that it's the way to go. I could also see them doing something completely inexplicable like keeping both Galvis & Yuni & optioning Frandsen to AAA.

It's a gamble for the Cardinals. With just one full season to judge Craig, they are betting he'll continue this production for the next five years.

His minor league record was quite fine; I don't think it's much of a gamble to expect him to keep mashing. He got stalled in getting to the majors, probably because the Cards used to have a pretty good 1B, what was his name? While Craig has "versatility", I have a pretty dim memory of him not being much in the field at other positions.

Aumont pitching for team Canada right now.

Not looking sharp either.

BAP, that's why they need to keep a player who can play BOTH OF and IF, someone versatile.


Hrm, who on the roster fulfills those criteria?

How in the world does a team which starts Mike Costanzo, and whose most accomplished player is Nick Punto, beat Mexico & Canada?

lorecore: You think he'd get $5M in arbitration next year no matter what? In his first year of arbitration?

Austin Jackson had his first year of arbitration this year and is making $3.5M. So Allen Craig is worth $5M, but Jackson just $3.5?

Matt Wieters avoid arbitration and got $5.5M. You think Allen Craig gets what Matt Wieters got?

Even Jason Heyward only got $3.5M this year.

I think you seriously over-estimate what Craig could get in his first arbitration year.

Fat: I was actually looking to see if Frandsen or Betancourt had ever played the OF. Betancourt has not -- at least not in the majors. I think Frandsen has but it was a long time ago.

It's also setting up nicely for Mini-Mart.

bay_area_phan: As someone else slyly intimated... the only way that happens is if you keep Mini Mart, who can also play OF. I can't see a scenario in which the Phils carry just one backup OF.

And they signed Frandsen to a major league contract and he's on the 40-man roster. Not sure why they'd keep Betancourt and dump Frandsen, especially with the spring he's having. Doesn't make any sense.

"Not sure why they'd keep Betancourt and dump Frandsen, especially with the spring he's having. Doesn't make any sense."

Exactly. Which is precisely why it will probably happen.

Somebody call JW! R.J. Swindle is pitching Team Canada into the mercy rule right now!

Why do people want Galvis to get a ton of ABs? He sucks offensively. The ideal scenario is that he starts at 2b and SS primarily vs LHP and is a late-innings defensive replacement as necessary.

If Galvis gets at least 50% or more of his ABs vs LHP, there is a chance he isn't a complete zero offensively.

Just up to Cholly to use him in a manner where Galvis is optimally positioned to help the club this year.

Sorry if this has been mentioned, but Team Canada is the all-Beerleaguer team: Gillies and Orr in the starting lineup with Mathieson, Aumont, and Swindle coming in out of the bullpen.

Also, achieving a walk-off mercy rule has to feel awesome.

Because people want (and hope that) Galvis to keep developing and not be a utility IF who gets 200 AB a year the rest of his career.

The Phillies wouldn't need a "no hit" backup SS if they'd have taken my advice and signed Chone Figgins.

Of course, they would've had a "no hit" everyday third baseman because I was completely wrong. But that's beside the point!

Very Interesting on Allen Craig. I make season beer bets with cardinals fan friend i have. One of this years is fastest to 25 Hr's & Fastest to 100 RBI's: Howard or Craig.

Good points on Craig by NEPP and lorecore that sum up my feelings on the subject pretty well.

I can't find confirmation on this, but I think it was MG who said that 1 WAR on the open market this offseason was ~6 million? They are basically paying Craig like a 1 WAR player through 2017. I get the age and injury risks, but those are fine risks to take at 6 million AAV. He's also (dare I say) versatile, meaning they could move him around the diamond and give themselves flexibility on who they acquire via FA or trade.

When someone says 'low risk, high reward,' this is the type of deal that fits that description exactly. At worst they're paying an injury-prone player like a 1 WAR guy, and he will rake for them 400 PAs per year. Best case scenario is he shakes the injury stuff and produces like a top-10 1B for five seasons, and is a guy that can be shifted to the OF to gain value- and he'll be paid less than 1/4 of Pujols's AAV.

Iceman: Except Craig isn't on the open market for the next four years. Why should he be paid like he is?

Guess my comment got eaten by the spam filters...


I'm not sure why we are giving up on Galvis' bat. He had a pretty solid year at AA-AAA at age 21 before being rushed to the majors due to injury.

Have we really decided his bat will never get better? A .700 OPS with his glove would be plenty valuable. And I don't think that's his offensive ceiling.

OK, so $3M instead of $5M, i overestimated. Point remains, the guy was going to cost the Cards $$ over the next few years as is, might as well add a few bucks in case he keeps mashing and grab an extra year.

KAS: agreed. Even if you think Galvis has a 5% chance of hitting enough to maintain his glove's value, the Phils can't afford not to pursue that 5% chance as best they can. Its not like he's really going to make much of an impact on 2013 as the backup IF anyway.

lorecore: I guess my point is they didn't have to sign him to anything in order to ensure they had him at $3M next year or $7M the year after that, etc. If he continued to perform adequately, the Cardinals would have him at that rate no matter what.

Instead, they pay him a little extra over the next four years in the hope that he'll be a bargain in the 5th year and maybe a 6th year.

If he were younger or healthier, I'd say it was a great deal. Instead, I think it was a bit of an unnecessary risk. Not a huge risk... just unnecessary.

To be clear on Craig: I don't think it's a bad deal for the Cardinals... I just don't think it's example of getting great value for a guy who is still under team control.

That's all.

Nepp - that is all fine and great for the future but they should be focused on this year. I really want Galvis on the roster over a stiff like Betancourt but really don't care if Galvis gets that many ABs this year.

KAS- well, they didn't have to. Sometimes it's important to have cost certainty, and if they have Craig in their plans for the foreseeable future, buying out his arbitration years allows them to be more flexible with moves going forward.

There's no telling what Craig will do in the next few years, but if he continues to mash (and strings together a few a seasons of 600+ PAs), he will be much more expensive through arbitration. They are betting that Craig will do it, and if he does, he would far exceed $31 million guaranteed in value. They could barely have gotten one year of Pujols for $31 million. I think they made out like bandits with that trade-off.

They also bought his 33- and 34-YO years of free agency essentially with a one-year, $11 million contract with a team option to make it 2/24. Again, if he keeps up his production, that will be at the very least market value- and more than likely below market value both in years and dollars. This is a very team-friendly contract. $31 million over 5 years is not a big gamble on a guy that is OPSing .900 when he's healthy.

"I could also see them doing something completely inexplicable like keeping both Galvis & Yuni & optioning Frandsen to AAA."

Why would anyone see this as a possibility? Not only is Frandsen absolutely raking, but they signed him to a MLB deal. He's making the team. End of story.

Frandsen would have to clear waivers to be sent to AAA.

Galvis didn't have a bad 2011 overall, but his .678 in over 100 AAA ABs don't exactly inspire copious quantities of confidence either...

Er, OPS, that is. I imagine a .678 BA wouldn't be objectionable.

At first, I thought I agreed with KAS in this Craig debate, but looking at the numbers of what he'll actually be paid, I think the Cardinals did make out really well here.

2013: $1.75 M (pre-arb, so this is about a $1 M overpay)
2014: $2.75 M (no way he doesn't get more than this in arbitration, unless he falls off a cliff; savings of probably $2 M)
2015: $5.5 M (probably gets more than this in arbitration, if not a lot more; probably savings of $3-4 M)
2016: $9 M (he would probably have gotten over $10 M in this, his last year of arbitration, so another savings of $2-3 M)
2017: %11 M (First FA year, so this would most likely certainly be big savings, maybe i the neighborhood of $7M, possibly more)
2018: $13 M/$1 M option (If they still want him, and think he's worth $13 (or more), this is a good price, if not they pay $1 M.

In my mind, the only thing they're gambling on is him staying good, and teams have to at some point gamble on their players being good. If he stays good, they save in the neighborhood of $15, if he doesn't, they're "strapped" with a player makes an AAV of $6 M.

I really like it.

I really like Allen Craig (what's not to like?), but I think I side with KAS on this one. Without the contract, the Cardinals would still have Craig for 4 more years -- and 4 years just seems like an eternity in baseball. I understand that they got a decent discount in the final 2 of those 4 years, and a potentially big discount in Years 5 and 6. But, if he gets injured or flames out in his early 30s (hardly unheard of), they're stuck with him for 6 years. If he were 23, or even 25, I'd say "Great deal." At 28, I'd say the potential upside is too far off and speculative to justify the risk.

The $6MM AAV isn't a big deal, but for teams that can't max out payroll the way that larger-market teams can, that 11MM and 13MM can be a real painful monetary drain.

As a team, the Cards have hovered around the 100-110MM mark for the past 2 years, but they sat in the mid-to-high 90s from 2007-2010, and rested below 90 in 2006. Even adjusting a bit for inflation (let's say their salary expands to 120 by 2018), Craig's cost is still around 10% of their entire salary expenditure for that year.

I don't know much about the Cards' farm system, but they'd better have some pretty solid pitching prospects who'll still be nice and cost-controlled by then if they're not going to feel the pinch.

I would take Craig as a LF in a second. He can play left and first. And mark mc really changed his swing in the last few years. Pure rotational hitter now.

I read a comment from the Cards' GM where he talked about how this gives them an idea of where they are in negotiations with Wainwright.

That is what cost certainty does. They know that they're paying Craig ~6 million AAV for the next five years, and can potentially slot him in at 1st or corner OF (if they keep Matt Adams). This might create a domino effect and allow them the room to sign Wainwright by structuring his contract to fit with what they just did with Craig, and what they will potentially do with Adams.

When you take into account that they were staring down the barrel of a 10-year, $260 million contract with Pujols to do what Craig will do for a fraction of that cost, while potentially allowing room to lock down a #1 starter for the rest of his career as a result- for a measly $6 million per year? They should be building a statue for Mozeliak in St. Louis for pulling that off.

Between passing on Pujols and this deal, Mozeliak has shown what a mid-market GM should always do.

I can picture them choosing MM as the 25th man(and 5th OF). Then all of BL will be clamoring for D. Young's return.

RAJ is trying to destroy BL. The one thing we can all rally around is that we have all sworn that MiniMart is the worst player ever.

So what does he do? Bring in players like DYoung and Yuni to test our unity. Don't give in to temptation my fellow leaguers, I know its hard, but stay strong and remain true.

¡Muerte a mercado en miniatura!

If the WBC is any indication, Rollins is ready to go. Swing looks great and he's made some nice plays in the field.

The rest of the team, aside of David Wright, looks like garbage, paying homage to the Phils by getting baffled by a bunch of junkballing slop.

If Freddy Galvis is getting 250-300 at bats with the Phillies this year, they are not a playoff team.

Of course, I don't think they are regardless of he's starting SS or down in the minors.

I just see too many other teams being better than the Phils in the NL (Nationals, Braves, Reds, Cardinals, Giants, Dodgers, and possible Diamondbacks).

GMC- And that's the nature of the underdog role.
We are an 81 win team trying to get closer to the 102 wins we knew and loved so well.

Carson: I just don't see how you (or really anyone) can definitively think that list of teams is all better than the Phillies. I'll grant the Nationals because on paper they are even stronger than they were last year. (Yes awh- even with their pitchers probably regressing some this year).

The Braves have question marks throughout that rotation and I think the national media has been seduced by the fact that they added the Upton brothers. On top of that- the rumor the other day was they were possibly looking to move Venters for a left-handed bench bat. That would be horrendous.

I would venture the Dodgers are probably better this year although that has the make-up of being one of those pre-season favorite things that implodes.

I think the Phillies are equal to the Reds, Cardinals, and Giants, and are better than the Diamondbacks- who basically replaced Upton with Cody Ross.

At worst I think the Phillies are the 4th best team on paper in the NL which gets them a playoff slot.

Gmc turn in your fan card. Fraud

As I showed earlier even when we were averaging 100 wins our utility infielder easily got 300 PA so I doubt that will have any effect on our playoff chances. We have 4 ifs all in their 30s...they will all need rest days.

Phillies equal to the Reds? No way. Reds won 97 games last year. We have no one on our offense who's even in the same stratosphere as Joey Votto offensively, and that's even if we don't think he gains all his power back right away after his knee injury. If he does get his power back, we don't have anyone in the same galaxy as Votto offensively.

Overall, their offense is stronger than ours with Votto, Bruce, Choo, Ludwick, Phillips and the likely development of Frazier.

Their rotation is probably weaker than ours, but they the chance to be equals if the Chapman experiment works out. If it doesn't, they still have a strong rotation with Cueto, Latos and Bailey. One thing that was under reported about the Reds rotation last year was that their 5 starters made 161 starts. There is great value in that kind of durability.

Defensively, I think they're probably better than us, although it remains to be seen how well Choo plays CF.

Lastly, even without Chapman in it, their bullpen is deeper and better than ours. If Chapman goes back to the bullpen, they'll have the best 'pen in the majors.

Reds are superior to the Phillies, probably by about 6-8 games.

To further my point about Votto, when he came back from injury last year, his power was drained, as he only had a .421 SLG.

So what did he do to compensate? Nothing but post a .505 OBP. The guy is the game's best pure hitter, and if his power returns, he's probably the game's best hitter. Yes, even better than Cabrera or Braun, in my opinion.

Any thoughts about a Beerleaguer Fantasy Baseball league on Yahoo?

I noticed an reverse-fantasy baseball option where the object is to pick the players who put up the most negative stats (strikeouts for position players, walks and HR allowed by pitchers, etc). The balance would be to pick players who are god awful, but not so bad that they sit for long periods of time or get released. MiniMart would be a first round draft pick.

SO Mark Reynolds would obviously be the number one overall pick, then.

Yeah, I think the Reds are the number 2, and not really significantly less good than the Nats. The remaining "good" teams in the league are all fairly evenly matched, I think. The issue with the Phillies is the precarity -- key players (Halladay, Utley, Howard, Brown, M. Young) are question marks--more vulnerable to substandard performance due to decline, injury, not in fact being good (Brown)--to a degree that other teams' better players are not (for instance, the Braves' outfield). Of the good teams, the Phillies have the best chance, I think, of not succeeding (succeeding=89+ wins & playoffs).

Bullpen looks great, rotation is solid, and offense has potential (scored less runs than the Phillies last year).

Although - Choo in CF with ludwick and bruce at the corners has a chance to be among the worst defensive OF in a long time. That has disaster written all over it to me, will be interesting to see how it works out.

I really enjoyed these Ben Revere highlight plays.

http://zozone.mlblogs.com/2013/03/09/reveres-highlight-reel/

Am I completely crazy to think that the Padres might be a sleeper pick to sneak into the playoffs? I know they play in a tough division & their starting rotation looks fairly awful. But Petco Park has a way of turning mediocre pitchers into good ones and they have a pretty decent young lineup.

Ok, if anyone wants to play, here's the link. Please sign up using your Beerleaguer user ID as your team name.

http://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/b1/register/tos?league_id=121234&password=lidge2009

League Name: The Beerleaguer Mini Mart
Password: lidge2009
Live Draft: Sat Mar 16 7:00pm eastern time

25 Man Roster; all active (no bench)

============================
Scoring Criteria
============================
Position Players:
- Games Played
- Games Started
- Plate Appearances
- Caught Stealing
- Strikeouts
- Ground Into Double Play
- Errors

Pitching:
- Games Started
- Relief Appearances
- Innings Pitched
- Singles Allowed
- Earned Runs
- Walks
- Wild Pitches
- Balks
- Losses
- Relief Losses
- Blown Saves

The variance of the Dodgers is actually pretty fascinating. I can see them winning 105 games or only winning 85 games. Kemp's health, Ethier's ability to be even slightly respectable against LHP, Crawford's continued decline or resurgence, Hanley returning to being a top 5 player, Greinke living up to his billing as being maybe the best #2 in baseball, Gonzalez rediscovering his power stroke, Josh Beckett having a good year.

If everything breaks right for the Dodgers, they're a powerhouse. If not, they'll have a hard time winning their division. Can't wait to see that story unfold.

Fatalotti: I did say the Phillies are at worst the 4th best team and the Reds are actually the third team I would put above them- on paper. However, I don't think the Phillies are on the same level as them.

Yes the Reds won 97 games last year. The year before they won 79. My guess is they are in the middle of that some where. The phillies won 102 two years ago and 81 last year. Again- probably in the middle of that somewhere in where they are.

I do think Choo is an upgrade offensively over Stubbs but like lorecore pointed out- that defense could be ugly. I think the move from Chapman to Broxton at closer is gonna hurt and weakens their bullpen up and down.

"Reds are superior to the Phillies, probably by about 6-8 games."


Not so sure Fatti. One, the 97 wins you cited from last year don't matter because the team is different. Same with the 81 wins for the Phillies. Two, even if you want to assign some 2013 valisity to their 2012 win total, you need to acknowledge that the Reds outperformed their Pythagorean W/L by 6 games.

Do I think the Phils are better? Probably not, but I don't think the 2013 gap will be 6 - 8 games.

Reds also didn't have Joey Votto for two months. Surely, their offense would have scored more runs with him in the lineup which would have pushed their Pyth W/L up a few wins. 6-8 might be a stretch, but they are a handful of games better than our team, in my opinion.

I agree with what Klaus says about the 'precarity' of the Phils' position. If a few of their top guys get hurt, it's a .500 team. And it's more likely that one of their top guys gets hurt because of the injury history.

But it's the flip side of that 'precarity' that I think is the reason can play with the Reds. I don't think they're 6-8 games worse than them if their guys stay on the field. No way. I do think the Reds are the 2nd/3rd best team in the league- they'd have probably gone on to the World Series if they hadn't collapsed against the Giants last year- but the Phils can hang with them. I think Cincy is a ~93-95 win team.

I agree everything else TTI said, though. I think the Phils are, at the very least, in the mix for 4th-best. There's kind of a jumble of teams around 4th/5th that should make for an interesting September. The Phils should be part of that, and if their guys are in there producing that late in the season, they'll be fine.

Also agree with Fata on the Dodgers. They're the wild card in this whole Wild Card discussion (I'll be here all night). Wouldn't be surprised by anything they did this year.

The Reds also have a bit of precarity themselves, outside of the whole 'Choo playing CF' thing. I understand that a starting pitcher is more valuable than a closer- even a top-3 closer- but moving Chapman to the rotation is a risk I'm not sure I would take, with the win-now squad they've got. Everyone said Feliz would be fine for the Rangers last year, but he had mixed results and then blew out his arm, causing them to reach for Oswalt (who sucked), and it cost them the division.

I think there's something to be said for not messing with a good thing. Chapman could be an ace, and if he is, the Reds could sniff 100 wins with the rest of that rotation. But he could also bomb out, leaving them with a hole in the rotation and a precarious bullpen situation (I'll never trust Broxton as long as I live).

I'd have looked at possibly enhancing Chapman's value in the bullpen- perhaps making him a 2-inning specialist in the biggest games, the way the Yankees did for years, which increased Rivera's value- before trying to move him to the rotation. I understand this opinion will be met with staunch disagreement. I just don't think it's a risk they needed to take.

Going to watch the giant Phils killer Astros play the Phils tomorrow. A sure Phils win.

Something on else the Phillies vs the Reds. They split the season series last year 3-3. The Phillies losses were all 1 run games that they blew late. So a better Reds team last year struggled with an ailing Phillies team. All things healthy and equal the Phillies are just about equal.

Also, I tend to believe Arroyo regresses this year and who knows if Bailey is for real or not.

Fatti, sure votto was out, but he only missed about 35 games from his average.

He was missed, but you'd need to show me how many RPG they scored with him in the lineup vs. him being absent. I'm not so sure there's that big a difference, and I'll be they still outperformed their Pythag.

"...I'll bet..."

Who else finds it painful to listen to T-Mac's little soliloquy that he delivers to open a telecast?
Too full of mixed metaphors, disjointed thoughts, overdone optimism.

March, and the guy already has me annoyed.

TTI, it's interesting, in that the Reds rotation seems very similar to the Phis rotation.

Two very good pitchers at the top (Hamels/Lee - Cueto/Latos), a third pitcher who's a question mark (Bailey - Halladay), and two guys at the back end who could struggles to be league average.

Cueto is a stud, and Latos is awfully good as well, but I'll call it "even" in a matchup with Hamels/Lee.

Bailey had his best year ever, but will he regress? Frankly, a very bad (for him) Roy Halladay in 2012 (4.49 ERA, 156 IP) was BETTER than Bailey's yearly average (4.47 ERA, 118 IP) from '09 - '11. I'd lay money that Halladay rebounds and outpeforms Bailey, who a risk to regress.

The #4 and #5 on both teams will probably be either slightly better than league average to slightly worse. Call it a wash.

IMHO, I'd give the slight advantage to the Phils rotation because of Halladay's superiority to Bailey.

Chapman is the wild card. He could struggle in the rotation, or be very good. In the bullpen he gives the Reds a decided advantage there. If he's not in the bullpen and Broxton is the closer, as mentioned above, if Broxton struggles it could ahve a negative cascading effect on their bullpen.

Now if Papelbon were healthy...

Howard K.

Clearly the day off threw him off.

rolo, the Reds scored 3.92 RPG during the games that Votto was active (beginning of the seasons to July 15 and September 5 to end of the season), and 4.6 with him out (July 16 - September 4).

But, Votto had no power after he returned from his injury, and didn't hit a HR after June 24. Regardless what they did with him out of the lineup and when he came back, it's pretty hard to argue that they wouldn't have been better during those periods were healthy and in the lineup.

Nice easy inning for Lannan.

Also on the Reds, they've removed the drain of a bat from their lineup that was Rolen last year, and replaced it Todd Frazier, in whom they have big hopes for the future, so that should be a plus for them this year.

Bonehead, the proper BL way to reference McCarthy is "Tbag".

Just sayin' ...

Fatti, you missed my point. I'm not "arguing" that. I'm asking, given that if he WAS healthy and in the lineup, how many more runs they would have scored in those 35 games?

Is Papelbon supposed to pitch today?

Awful defense by Brown.

Fatalotti: Granted Frazier could light it up for the Reds. He could stink it up. He could be no better or worse than Rolen. All possibilities.

Interesting to see Galvis start at 3B. I expect he will see a lot more time there the rest of camp to see if he should be the late innings defensive replacement for M Young.

rolo, thank you for the opportunity to procrastinate from doing work at home on a weekend...

The Reds were 33-16 while Votto was on the DL last year from July until Labor Day. They scored 226 runs in those 49 games (4.61 RPG). In the other 113 games, they scored 3.92 RPG. For the season, they scored 4.13 RPG.

Frazier was one of the players who bailed them out during that time, hitting .300 and posting a .847 OPS with 8 HRs while Votto was out.

But the main guy that carried them was Ludwick. He played in 44 of the 49 games and put up a line of .340/.404/.647/1.051 with 12 HRs and 36 RBI.

Before Votto went on the DL, Ludwick was hitting .236/.308/.486/.794 with 13 HR in 65 games. He then went on to hit only 1 HR after Votto came back from the DL. Basically, the Reds got bailed out by Ludwick's contract push which eventually earned him his 3-year deal potentially worth $20 million.

Anyway, they weathered the storm, and then some. I don't think their Pythag would have been changed too much with Votto's presence for those games.

MG- last I heard Papelbon was supposed to pitch. Haven't heard anywhere that he got scratched. PAPCON watch in full effect this afternoon.

Interesting to see the money line has moved up on the Phils a bit the last week or so on o/u on season win totals. 84.5 is now at -130 and it was at -125.

I took the 83.5 at -130 and glad I took the under on Yanks last week at 88.5 at -115 after Granderson got hurt. After Texiera got hurt, they are down to 86.5 or 86 now.

MG- did you take the over or the under?

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EST. 2005

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