Does Halladay's legend equal a trip to Cooperstown?

TAMPA — We have seen a lot of it happen before our very eyes, like the perfect game in Miami or the no-hitter in his postseason debut.

Then there are the seasons of 200-plus innings, the complete games and the wins

There are also the tales about the early-morning workout sessions and the obsessive routine that Roy Halladay puts himself through in order to get onto the mound for an average of 230 innings over the past 15 years.

As Jeff Passan of Yahoo! wrote on Friday, the legend of Roy Halladay is, uh, legendary.

Roy Halladay is Bill Brasky, except for one difference.

“The stories about him,” Phillies catcher Erik Kratz said, “are true.”

So it begs the question: with a 199-100 record, a 3.31 ERA, a pair of Cy Young awards and a couple of trips to the postseason, is Roy Halladay a Hall-of-Famer? If his career were to end right now, would you cast your Hall-of-Fame vote for him?

The overwhelming consensus of voters asked in an informal poll claimed that they would cast a vote for Halladay even if he were to call it quits tomorrow. At worst, Halladay might cause a voter or two to mull over his worthiness for being a first ballot Hall of Famer, but the reality is that he was one of the most dominant pitchers of his era. 

Then again, before the steroid era put every statistic into question, there were a few pitchers like Halladay who weren’t in the Hall of Fame for one reason or another. In fact, after 15 seasons Halladay’s stat line is comparable to that of former Yankees’ ace Ron Guidry, a pitcher who is no longer on the Hall-of-Fame ballot.

In 14 years Guidry went 170-69 with a 3.29 ERA. Like Halladay, Guidry won 20 games three times, including the otherworldly 25-3 with a 1.74 ERA and took home the Cy Young Award in 1978. Also like Halladay, Guidry averaged 235 innings per season and roughly 6.7 strikeouts per nine innings. In 1983 at age 32, Guidry pitched a remarkable 21 and, more notably, Guidry got to the World Series three times, won twice and went 3-1 with 1.69 ERA in four starts.

Now here’s the kicker… Guidry was taken off the Hall-of-Fame ballot in 2002 after nine years where he never achieved more than 8.8 percent of the vote (75 percent is needed for enshrinement). 

No, this isn’t an argument for Guidry to be reconsidered for the Hall of Fame and we know that comparing statistics across different eras is usually foolhardy. Hell, it’s even tough to compare stats amongst players on the same team or across leagues in the same year. The great players don’t play the game to achieve stats and sometimes the natural course of the game can skew the numbers is all sorts of directions. However, it’s worth noting that like Halladay, Guidry was viewed as the best pitcher on earth for a number of seasons.

Look at this quote from Guidry’s old teammate Willie Randolph:

“I’ve always said Ron Guidry, pound for pound, was the fiercest competitor I ever played with. Nobody wanted to give him a chance when he first came up. Too skinny, too small, they all thought. They couldn’t see what he had in his heart. He had a big one and a lot of determination.”

Then there’s this one from his teammate Reggie Jackson in an Sports Illustrated story from the 1978 season:

“He and [Jim] Palmer are the two best athletes among pitchers I've ever seen. The few times I've seen him swing the bat make me think he could be an every-day player, the way Bob Gibson could have been.”

And of course this gem from longtime rival manager Whitey Herzog: 

“He’s not God, but he’s close.”

Now look at what they say about Halladay …

“This guy is The Immortal, we're all just humans, and we're lucky enough to play baseball with him,” Cole Hamels told Passan.

And yet Guidry never even got a sniff of Hall of Fame consideration from the voters.

Again, this isn’t a case for Ron Guidry (or anyone else) or against Roy Halladay — far from it. Nor is it an expose on the knee-jerk tendencies of the Hall-of-Fame vote. Maybe the point is that it will be fun to watch Halladay pitch for a few more seasons as he puts the finishing touches on his Hall-of-Fame resume.

Read more: Even in the twilight of his career, the Phillies' Roy Halladay remains a legend among peers (Yahoo!)

Comments

[NEPP]

Halladay would make the Hall of Fame if he blew out his arm and never pitchec again.

He just wouldn't be a 1st ballot guy.

[MG]

No.

[chuckt808]

One of the reasons Guidry didn't even get close to the HoF is that in NY, the cult of personality is often more important than the stat line.

[Fatalotti]

Through his age 35 seasons, Guidry had a 120 ERA+, 1 CY award, and 2218 IP.

Through his age 35 season, Halladay has a 134 ERA+, 2687 innings and 2 CY awards in different leagues.

I think Doc is a HoF right now, but it'd take him a few ballots to get on. If he has another 2 strong seasons, he'll be a lock, in my opinion.

[MG]

He needs at least 3 more very good/good years to wrack up some counting stats.

If you look at his similarity scores on B-ref.com through 35, he compares to Mussina, Hudson, B. Welch, Gooden, Petitte, K. Brown, Saberhagen, Hubbell, and Guidry.

That's a list of 'very good starters' but there is a reason that most of those guys aren't in the HOF nor should be.

[Fatalotti]

MG, theoretically counting stats shouldn't carry the same weight they once did. It's just going to be near impossible for starters to get to 300 wins or 3,000 strikeouts anymore with the way the game is being managed, with bullpens specialization and the such.

In terms of rate stats, and dominance over his league, Halladay probably matches up quite well with plenty of pitchers in the Hall.

[Sil Campusano]

Let's get him a win or two in the WS and remove all possible opposition. Ok? Ok.

[NEPP]

Pedro's counting stats are pretty borderline too...definitely not a Hall of Famer.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

J-Roll works a full count walk on 7 pitches.

Revere follows with a base hit.

[NEPP]

Good to see Jimmy and Ben are paying attention to BL's advice.

[MG]

I was talking about Halladay last night and my old boss brought up a very valid point - if Halladay didn't get hurt last year and was the Halladay of '10-'11 the Phils likely would have made the playoffs or at least forced a WC playoff with the Cards.

Hard to disagree otherwise. Halladay really struggled in May & when he was out in June/July, the wheels kind of fell of the pitching staff for those 6 weeks.

Losing Contreras a bigger issue than people will let on but a healthy Halladay would have gone a long way to lose the bleeding in June & prevent the heavy usage of the bullpen.

Halladay really has been the lynchpin of this team the past few years and without him last year things on the staff & team started to fall apart.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Kuroda gets both Utley and Howard to hit double play ground balls to the right side. Yankees boot the first one, convert the second one, but Phils get 2 runs. Then Young strikes out looking on a high slider that I can't believe was called a strike.

[MG]

Watched Halladay and P. Martinez pitch in their primes and Martinez in his prime in '99-'00 was a hell of a lot better than Halladay.

Slightly better velocity (he was able to dial it up to 94-95 when necessary) and his offspeed stuff was better than anything Halladay has.

[lorecore]

I kind of hate that we have almost our complete opening day lineup on the field in spring training. Just seems lame.

[Cyclic]

Sick strikeout by Halladay right there

[NEPP]

***Watched Halladay and P. Martinez pitch in their primes and Martinez in his prime in '99-'00 was a hell of a lot better than Halladay. ***

Of course he was...but then P. Martinez in his prime was pretty much better than any pitcher in history. The point was that neither has the traditional "counting stats" you need. Pedro had 3000 K but only 220 Wins. He's a sure-fire HOF too though.

Given Doc's dominance of a solid 5-6 year period and overall dominance during his career, he'd get in the Hall.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Doc strikes out Nunez on 4 pitches. Stuff looked good. Got him on that cutter moving away from the RH hitter. Nunez flailed helplessly.

[clout]

"The more I think about it, the crazier it seemed to think that Ruf was just going to make a seamless transition to the OF and become a legitimate ML starter."

Imagine that. (But don't tell BAP.)

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Doc's an easy Hall of Famer. Extended dominance pitching in the toughest division in baseball for much of his career.

[Iceman]

Comparing a pitcher to Pedro in his prime as some sort of baseline? That's hilarious.

[NEPP]

If Bert freaking Blyleven is a Hall of Famer, then Doc Halladay is a Hall of Famer.

[MG]

The only advantage prime Halladay would have over Martinez is durability which was always an issue for Pedro when he started to get into the 7th inning or so.

Watching Pedro pitch a fair amount in the late 90s/early 00s (thank you for a roommate whose Mom worked at Gillette and could get us tickets) is still the single most impressive I have seen watching baseball as a fan.

[NEPP]

***Watching Pedro pitch a fair amount in the late 90s/early 00s (thank you for a roommate whose Mom worked at Gillette and could get us tickets) is still the single most impressive I have seen watching baseball as a fan. ***

Best pitcher I've ever seen pitch.

[MG]

NEPP - If you really get down to it, Pedro was dominant from 1997-03 although he wasn't quite the same in '02 and '03 after his velocity dropped after the '01 season.

[lorecore]

KAS: im assuming MYoung booted another ball?

[Allen Thornberg]

"The more I think about it, the crazier it seemed to think that Ruf was just going to make a seamless transition to the OF and become a legitimate ML starter."

Imagine that. (But don't tell BAP.)

Posted by: clout | Friday, March 01, 2013 at 01:18 PM

So, Ruf-to-the-big-leagues is a failed project (referred to in past tense, yet) after a week of Spring Training? clout's smug endorsement of this silly statement (with its nasty little taunt thrown at BAP) is fully as moronic as the much less outrageous statements he continually calls other people out for. How can anyone take a troll like this seriously? (and why I am even bothering to comment on his trolling? Dumb me).

[MG]

Don't have the game on but is Halladay having his trouble hitting spots? Getting loose in the 1st/2nd innings seems like it has been a real issue with him for a few years now.

[Cyclic]

According to the Yankees broadcast gun, Halladay has hit 92 a couple times.

[MG]

Even for a spring training game, this might be one of the crappiest lineups I have seen the Yanks field in a long, long time.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

lorecore: Nope, infield hit. Backed up on a high chopper to third, made strong throw, but runner beat it.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Doc strikes out two and allows 3 baserunners on a couple infield hits (one might be an error on J-Roll) and a walk.

[Reverend]

If M Young was taller he could have made that play!

[NEPP]

Just to put it out there again as its just a ridiculous season:

29 GS, 23-4, 213.1 IP, 313 SO, 37 BB, 160 H, 13.2 SO/9, 1.56 BB/9, 0.920 WHIP, 8.46 SO/BB, 12.1 fWAR

That was Pedro's 1999 season. Just insane.

[lorecore]

KAS: gotcha... so the opposing team's catcher hit a high chopper that our third baseman can't convert into out.

[Joe D]

Love this part of the Doc piece:

With that movement, nothing is ending anytime soon, even if Halladay is going to fall short of the 259-plus innings he needs to trigger a vesting option and end up a free agent. And yet because it can vanish – because a 23-year-old with a whole life ahead can find himself at the depths of his career – the 35-year-old version of Halladay treats it as if it soon will.

What's so awesome about this is that you know when they were drawing up his deal and got the option for 2014 Doc was totally cool with having to hit 259 innings. Because he is a beast. Such a legend.

He and Pedro are hands down my favorite pitchers of my lifetime. Pedro was so damn electric. Doc on the otherhand was pure business...you know how he will get most hitters out and it won't be too fancy.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

24 pitches is a long first inning for Doc. Some bad luck in that either of the ground balls hit to slightly different spots are easy outs. He had some small control issues with his slider, but he had good velocity for his 2nd spring start.

[NEPP]

***According to the Yankees broadcast gun, Halladay has hit 92 a couple times.

Posted by: Cyclic | Friday, March 01, 2013 at 01:25 PM
***

This time last year he was throwing 86-87 mph.

So...good to see.

[Edmundo]

Ron Guidry is the ace of my Birthday team. He was pretty awesome in his day but is just Inner Circle Hall of Very Good.

[Mini Mart]

"Comparing a pitcher to Pedro in his prime as some sort of baseline? That's hilarious."

What's so funny about that? I'm routinely compared to Hank Aaron in his prime.

[Fatalotti]

Pedro's 7 year stretch from 97-03 is probably pretty easily the most dominant 5-7 year stretch by any starting pitcher, ever.

As MG noted, the only thing that keeps it from being completely otherworldly is that he didn't rack up impressive IP totals from 2001-2003.

But as far as how good he was on a pitch-by-pitch basis, I doubt there's anyone that could even sniff these numbers in what was a very harrowing division:

199 GS, 118-36, 2.20 ERA, 11.3 K/9, 2 BB/9, 1408 IP, 0.940 WHIP, 0.6 HR/9, 5.59 K/BB and....213 ERA+

Two. Hundred. Thirteen.

[Cyclic]

Ruf looked reeeeally bad in that AB.

[NEPP]

***As MG noted, the only thing that keeps it from being completely otherworldly is that he didn't rack up impressive IP totals from 2001-2003.***

The IP is pretty much the only part you could use to argue that Koufax's similar stretch was better. Koufax basicallyl matched the rate numbers but did it while throwing 300 innings a year.

[ramsey]

In 1999, Pedro struck out 37.5% of the batters he faced, and walked 4.4% of them.

So basically Pedro turned ML hitters into...Anthony Hewitt.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

lorecore: I wouldn't try to read too much into it if you didn't see it.

[lorecore]

Koufax was better i think. b-ref is down for me.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Ruf flailed wildly at a slider from Kuroda. Not a good AB for him.

[NEPP]

***So basically Pedro turned ML hitters into...Anthony Hewitt.***

While pitching in the AL East at the height of the steroid era playing against the very best teams in baseball every 5th night.

[Sil Campusano]

I'll always remember a conversation I had in 2009 at a Phils-Pirates game with a Blue Jays fan sitting in the CBP stands in front of me. The guy was on a trip visiting different ballparks. This was when the talks of trading for Doc were very active. As we all know, they ended up getting Lee, and the rest is history.

His exact quote: "Give up everybody. Because he's that good."

Save for last year during his injury, the guy was right about Doc.

[Fatalotti]

Joe D, Doc only has to pitch 259 innings this year to vest because he only threw 156 last year. The vesting option was to throw a combined 415 IP between 2012 and 2013. If he had thrown over 215 innings last year, he'd only have to hit 200 this year to vest.

[Jive Talking]

"So basically Pedro turned ML hitters into...Mini Mart"

FIXT!

[TNA]

How hilarious would it be if players went into the HOF with the jersey they last wore before they retired?

HOF 2015: Pedro Martinez, Philadelphia Phillies!

[Joe D]

Those Pedro #s are just downright filthy.

[Mini Mart]

Hey, I resemble that remark!

[NEPP]

***b-ref is down for me. ***

Its not just me? Thought it was a firewall issue.

The IP part is where I push it to Koufax but its also important to remember that Koufax pitched in a super friendly pitchers park at the height of the 2nd deadball era.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

lorecore: If it makes you feel better, Youk just had difficulty handling a high chopper down the third base line.

[MG]

NEPP - Craziest thing about Pedro's '99 season too is that he hurt himself in the ASG striking out the side in the the 1st inning and getting 2 more in the 2nd. If I remember correctly, he even hit 96 or 97 on the gun.

Pedro got bombed in his first start all the ASG in Florida (3 2/3, 12 H, 9 R, 7 ER) and missed a couple of starts.

Take out that bad start from his '99 season and his ERA would have 1.79, I would argue it was the best season a MLB pitcher has had since the end of WW2 even though Pedro's '00 season was really ridiculous too.

[Joe D]

Ah, I see Fata. Thanks for clearing that up. I thought it might have been tied to last year but really wasn't sure because I could see Halladay saying he could go for 260 easy because well he's Doc.

[Phillibuster]

Nice hit & run there.

[Fatalotti]

Koufax might have matched in rate stats, but he was pitching in LA in a less offensively "boosted" era.

For reference, I remember Koufax's best ERA+ over a 7 year stretch being something like 160 (bbref is down right now, so I can't check).

Pedro's was, again, 213.

[Allen Thornberg]

RFD just had a base hit (what kind, I don't know, since damned Gameday takes so long to refresh). I'm worried now, in that I see signs of the Mayberry Mirage (which took in me and others) starting to appear; watch RFD tear it up in ST to such an extent that Cholly pencils him in as a starter; then watch him hit .216 throughout April and May.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Lerud did a nice job hitting behind the SS who was attempting to cover 2nd base on the Mayberry attempted steal.

It's a small example of how aggressive base-running can lead to good things.

[Allen Thornberg]

Woops, Mayberry reached on error (thanks for confusing me, Gameday). That should dissolve the mirage somewhat.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Rollins got his bat out quick on a fastball up in the zone and he drilled it to RF for an RBI double.

[MG]

Last Pedro point:

It was before Stubhub and the ticket scalping really moved online but Pedro starts in Fenway were like gold. Tickets went for 2x-3x face and that was for even the crappiest seats in the upper bleachers in RF or down the RF line in the corner (some of the worst seats in MLB).

Only time in baseball I can ever remember regular season games being it was such an event to get tickets to a game in May/June.

[Phillibuster]

Revere swinging for the outfield there!

[ramsey]

Looking at park and era-adjusted numbers like ERA- and FIP-, there's no real comparison. Pedro blows away Koufax.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Robertson gets Revere swinging. He's going to be a very good reliever for them. I like his stuff.

[Phillibuster]

Not a terrible route by Brown to snag that. Probably not where Doc intended the pitch to be, though...

[MG]

Halladay is more of a craftsman but Pedro was an artist.

Pedro also had a hell of a lot more of a nasty streak too. Hitters who talked crap on Pedro or try to pull antics either got a dustoff pitch or got drilled.

Gerald Williams did that in a game at Tampa Bay talking crap & Pedro just drilled him.

Here is a crappy video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3VQ1KjcY6TM

[Cyclic]

Another filthy K.

(yeah I know it's against an A-ball guy)

[Joe D]

This guy's name is Adonis? That's awesome.

[Phillibuster]

Doc hunting for spots. Finding them about 40% of the time, looks like.

[The Truth Injection]

I understand using Pedro as a baseline for greatness. I only compare mob movies to The Godfather.

[Joe D]

Pedro said something recently like he meant to throw at or hit 90% of the people that he did it too. The guy was just awesome. In every way.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Good outing for Doc. 3 Ks in two innings, 1 BB and two infield hits.

[Jack]

KAS: Robertson already is a very good reliever for them. Borderline dominant the last two seasons, and has pitched 60+ innings the last three.

Up to last season, he'd been very successful despite a walk rate over 4 per 9 innings. Then, last year, he dropped it to 2.8. If he keeps up that control, he'll be a guy who gets a contract to be a closer in a few years.

[Phillibuster]

Lotta first-pitch swings on Joba.

[Phillibuster]

TTI: Not "Johnny Dangerously?"

[Cyclic]

Another deep count, great at bat, and walk from Dom Brown.

[MG]

Philibuster- Does that mean his stuff looked good today? Was he using anything offspeed besides his curveball?

[Jack]

If Dom hits enough to get an average to .260-.270 and play every day, he's going to be a positive contributor, because he has a great eye and walks a ton. On this team, that will surely stand out.

[Phillibuster]

Tried the slider a bit, it looked like, mixed results, mostly, although he got enough of the calls to make it count.

[Fatalotti]

TTI: Not "Johnny Dangerously?"

Posted by: Phillibuster | Friday, March 01, 2013 at 01:56 PM

This online commenter once compared Roy Halladay to Pedro Martinez to determine his Hall eligibility.

Just once.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Jack: Didn't mean to suggest he hasn't been a good reliever. Just saying I like his stuff a lot.

[Cyclic]

Nice job by Ruf to work a walk.

He crushed one to LF, foul by 20 or so feet.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

MG: Joba's stuff has been solid. He's worked his fastball up to 94. Not sure I've seen many curevballs.

Some control problems, however, as he walked both Brown and Ruf. He's given up hits to Young and now Mayberry Jr. for 2 RBI.

[Cyclic]

JMJ-mirage!

[Fatalotti]

Jack, why I'd love Brown to end up in the 2-hole.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

There was a curve ball dropped in for a strike by Joba.

[Phillibuster]

Fatalotti: Are you trying to imply that Michael Keaton's performance in Johnny Dangerously doesn't comprise the absolute pinnacle of organized crime acting?

[ramsey]

My preferred (but not Charlie-friendly) lineup has Brown hitting 2nd when Chooch isn't playing.

[MG]

Still like Goodfellas a lot more than the Godfather since I found it more realistic and a lot more personally relatable.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Doc seems to be overthrowing the slider. Misses well outside against RHB today.

[Phillibuster]

That last double he was hitting the spot Kratz(?) called for, but the bat intersected with the ball before it could.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Doc's day is done after 2.1. Gave up three hits (2 IF singles) and a walk. Struck out three. His command wasn't as sharp, but he still showed good movement and velocity. Good to see velocity tick up the 2nd time out.

[Phillibuster]

Yankees scouting report on Phillies:
.500 Ballclub
Healthy infield & rotation
Competition in outfield

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Nice to see Cesar Jimenez out of the bullpen in this game. Just one thing...

Who is Cesar Jimenez!?!??!? (And yes, I looked him up on BR.com already.)

[MG]

Phils are definitely 'undervalued' this spring nationally from what I have seen if they are healthy vs last year where they were easily 'overvalued.'

Just a question of how healthy and good they look coming out of spring training.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Philibuster: Lerud is actually behind the plate for the Phillies.

[Jack]

I'm gonna make a prediction.

Cesar Jimenez will not make the team.