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Thursday, March 14, 2013

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*** So far this spring the Phillies' fielders have been charged with 25 errors in 18 Grapefruit League games. ***

Funny, that's actually lower than I thought it would be. If they actually called errors like they should, it'd probably be closer to 40-50.

To start, Cliff Lee was solid in his 2 2/3 innings, allowing just a pair of earned runs and throwing 71 pitches.

Huh? I didn't see the game but there has to be many mitigating circumstances to call that line "solid".

Edmundo, if you read teh rotoworld link to the right, Andy Pettitt "labored" in teh game despite holding the Phils to 1 run in 3 IP.

Point: Lee had a bunch of errors committed behind him and that can skew numbers. As long as he looked OK (decent velocity, location, rhythm, etc.) then I wouldn't be too worried.

Hopefully the defense improves because if it does not, we're going to look very similar to those Marlins clubs of the past few years that had good talent on paper but really crappy fundamentals that seriously hurt them on the field.

Rube has shown a disturbing inability to find good defensive players. Great defense was a huge part of the 08 championship and our overall 5 year run as NL East champs. We do not seem to have that this year...yet.

Was anyone else a little surprised/shocked by Carlo Gomez getting 3 years/$24 million? I know that he had a good year last year but wow.

NEPP, that's Adam Eaton money!

LOL...very true.

It makes the value of a good CF like Revere all that more evident. He's an absolute steal costwise due to his pre-arb status.

I try to be rational when it comes to prospects and small sample sizes, but I have to ask: if the assortment of Catchers are all playing horribly in all aspects, why not give Joseph a spin for April while Chooch is out?
Sounded like he got glowing peer reviews in his brief ST action. Other than the blanket "he's too young and not ready yet" statement, why not? If he stinks, you send him back to the minors after 25 games. If he's good...well that's a good thing.

nok, the simple answer as to why "not"?:

Service time clock.

"So far this spring the Phillies' fielders have been charged with 25 errors in 18 Grapefruit League games.

Only Toronto with 26 errors in 18 games has committed more errors than the Phillies and their .963 team fielding percentage is the worst in the majors through the spring games."

thanks for the context.

Rolo: true, but if they send him back down after 25 days, that shouldn't accrue enough to count as a service year, right?
The only way he stays up is if he's ripping the cover off the ball, Howard'06-style.

rolo/nokwurst: I don't think service time comes into the equation here. Its just a case of the blanket statement 'hes too young and not ready' applies very well.

The Phillies are going to need every single win they can get this year - they are in no position to throw a 21yr old catcher with a whopping .735 OPS in his 3 milb seasons into the bigs just to see what happens.

Totally agreed they will need every win this year, especially at start of the season. Which is why I hate to see them go w/ the current stable of catchers for April.

I'm not even looking for offense from any of them, just solid defense. Between the errors and the inability to throw out runners, what are they currently giving you? Nothin'

It's unlikely that Tommy Joseph will outperform Erik Kratz over the first 25 games of the season. This is not to say that Joseph doesn't project to be a better player than Kratz, but going with Kratz is the safer bet at this point.

Quintero is considered a good defensive catcher, so if 0 offense and good defense is Ok in your book, then look no further.

I personally think the margin between Kratz and Quintero is very thin and their playing time during April could become interchangable, and predicted such a few days/week ago.

nokwurst: I'm with you on Joseph up to a point. His defense alone warrants consideration. But I'm a believer in Kratz' bat.

And an additional month of service time is no reason to punt on the starting catcher position for 25 games. If Joseph is anywhere near super 2 status, they can just skip a September call-up (when he'd just ride the bench as a third catcher anyway).

***Service time clock.***

Is Joseph on the 40 man yet? That could also be a reason for why not as it would burn an option.

I was having the same discussion with a friend this weekend at our fantasy draft when Chooch went in the last round. He said "It's going to be a long 25 games either way- why not give him [Joseph] a cup of coffee with what the alternatives are?"

I'm not down on Kratz to the point where I think he's going to be a Galvis-like drain on the offense while Chooch is out. But I think that neither he nor Quintero are anything close to ideal choices and I'd be open to being swayed towards a wild card like Joseph if there was even a 1 in 1,000 chance of it possibly happening.

Just checked...Joseph is not on the 40 man yet so that is a major reason not to use him for 25 games. You burn an entire year of team control by adding him and then sending him down at the end of April.

Nepp: thanks for checking on the 40-man standing, it crossed my mind by I didn't get around to looking at it. Yep that definitely explains it. Oh well.

NEPP: Team control is determined by number of days on the active roster.

The only thing you burn is an option years, but it doesn't sound like the Phils intend to yo-yo him back and forth to the minors.

***The only thing you burn is an option years, but it doesn't sound like the Phils intend to yo-yo him back and forth to the minors.***

That's what I meant...sorry I worded it very poorly.

Joseph can easily be added to the 40 man roster. The only downside is someone else has to be placed on waivers.

In the end, the simplest explanation is probably the most likely: The Phils like Kratz and Quintero better for 2013.

I seriously doubt the Phillies want 4 catchers on the 40 man (Kratz, Ruiz, and Valle are already there).

Curious, why is Cook starting for the mlb team and KK with the minor league game?

NEPP: Quintero is not on the 40 man either. I think there's a rule that he can be added temporarily due to Chooch's suspension.

They could easily do that with Joseph if they liked him better than Quintero for this year. But the decision to send him to minor league camp tells us they do not.

I didn't see the game, and I realize there were a slew of errors, but it's kind of difficult for me to conceive how a pitcher can be "solid," while allowing 6 hits, 2 walks, 2 earned runs, and throwing 71 pitches in 2.2 innings.

BAP: it was better than Doc's outing, so therefore, "solid."
Kind of like how "Light Ice Cream" is less fatty than regular.

JW keeps giving us the finger.

I think more of the shocker rather then the finger.

Iore: Though Kendrick needs the reps, they need to see Cook more than they need to see Kendrick (I mean... I guess--I think we all know what he's capable of). Here's to hoping Cook gets knocked around today.

Ruf's HR was a beauty. Now come on, put it together and earn LF.

Was anyone else a little surprised/shocked by Carlo Gomez getting 3 years/$24 million? I know that he had a good year last year but wow.

Posted by: NEPP | Thursday, March 14, 2013 at 08:55 AM

It's a large deal, but the Brewers must be convinced that he finally started living up to his potential in the 2nd half last year. His post-ASB line (252 ABs) was 278/321/488 for an 809 OPS with 46 Runs, 14 HRs, and 26 SBs (only 3CS). Combine that with very good D in CF, and you have an elite-level performer, if he can keep that up.

Anyone else troubled that they're putting a real CF in there today? They haven't said anything about Michael Martinez being injured; but they wouldn't tell us anyway.

Wow. The Doc situation is hitting this place hard. It's dead in the middle of spring training and traffic is like Christmas Day. Am I the only one wondering if Ruf finally dialed because he was DH? Could his fielding stress him out as much as it does us?

Get his bat going, get his confidence going, get his LF going...

Onto the regular season and 30-35 HRs.

If only...

Andy, Martinez was sent down to minor league camp several days ago.

Andy: Pete Orr is still here and actually came into the game to play CF last night. For those inclined to read something into every last bit of minutia, this might be a sign that Pete Orr could make the roster as a utility infielder & 5th outfielder.

Kind of a big deal... Salisbury reports:

Roy Halladay threw his scheduled between-starts bullpen session Thursday morning at Bright House Field.

“It went well,” pitching coach Rich Dubee said. “It went fine.”

Halladay threw 39 pitches. He and Dubee spoke about mechanics during the session, but that’s not unusual.

bay_area_phan: That Pete Orr got any time in CF tells you an awful lot about Inciarte and Ruf. The Phils are actively auditioning a player to get the last bench spot that could play OF in a pinch.

It also says a lot about how little they think of Mini Mart. And that's some of the best news we could get.

Well, if Rich Dubee says it went fine, all my concerns are alleviated.

“It went well,” pitching coach Rich Dubee said. “It went fine.”

I'm sorry, I'm not feeling any more confident. Coming from Dubee, this quote could mean anything from "WOW, Doc hit 96 on the gun today" to "At least his left arm is still attached".

I don't care much about Dubee's reaction. I care that Doc had his regular bullpen session.

Dubee added, "And F you for asking that intrusive question."

You know how you can tell when Dubee is lying? His mouth moves. Thanks. I'll be here all week.

Another freaking error!

I don't understand Dubee's attitude towards being transparent regarding a pitcher's injury. Baseball is not a contact sport, I can understand in other sports the reason behind not being completely truthful about an athlete's injury, but not in baseball. It's not as if a hitter knows that, for example, a pitchers shoulder hurts, therefore when swinging the bat, he's gonna aim for the hurt shoulder. Just makes no sense. He comes off as arrogant and disdainful.

If it was a personal issue, and not injury related, then I can understand. Doc seems to be a private person, and has every right to exercise that privacy. However, if it was an injury, in my humble opinion, they should've come clean. Nothing to be gained by lying about it.

1. Michael Martinez SS
2. Michael Martinez 3B
3. Michael Martinez 2B
4. Michael Martinez 1B
5. Michael Martinez RF
6. Michael Martinez DH
7. Michael Martinez LF
8. Michael Martinez C
9. Michael Martinez CF

FIXT dudes!

Inciarte showing off his defensive skills throws out a runner at home.

Nice throw by Enciarte to that the runner at the plate.

He's the best overall defensive OF the Phils have because he actually has a plus arm in CF.

MG: you know nothing about Edner Inciarte's defensive abilities.

lorecore - He has pretty good range and shown at least an average arm this spring.

It is more a case simply that the Phils don't have anybody who is complete defensive OF.

I don't know how his range compares against Revere's but every scouting report has him as having a terrible/below average arm.

So, Aaron Cook looks like he'll be our No. 2 starter this year.

MG: you know nothing about Edner Inciarte's defensive abilities.

But his twin, Ender, on the other hand.

I think I'll duck ... now.

Missed that. Back to work.

MG thinks Inciarte is better than Revere defensively...that's rich.

I imagine "Overall I think Revere is overrated defensively" will be joining the MG rotation this year joining Chooch's overuse, Manuel's bullpen management and Reading's promotions.

Another game another error.

I know its only spring but be nice to see Utley start hitting.

Iceman - Yeah I bet he is because I bet there isn't is a big difference between Inciarte's and Revere's range in CF and Inciarte has a big advantage with his arm over Revere.

We had this conversation earlier this year and there isn't enough of a sample to see how Revere will perform in CF over a full season.

Figures I spell his last name correctly for probably the first time ever, and then mispell his first name.

Anyway, to say Ender is our best defensive CF is a blatant wild guess unless you happen to be one of the rare people who scout the dbacks rookie and single A clubs, who also post on beerleager regularly.

And for as much as some people want to rip on Revere's poor arm strength, please go to youtube and watch the plays he makes. I'll take a few base advances in exchange for robbing multiple XBHs.

It is a blatant guess but Inciarte's speed on the basepaths and range have really has surprised me this spring.

All of the scouting stuff I read on Inciarte said he was a very good defensive OF but there was a huge question about how his offensive numbers will translate from High A in CA.

That's the reason why he was a Rule V pick. Revere is a proven MLB bat who hits for a high average and steals his share of bases.

MG: But to be fair... there is NO sample on Inciarte. The only reason we think he's good defensively is that scouts said he was good defensively and we have a handful of innings in spring training.

Revere has more than 1000 ML innings in CF.

Yankees used 2 pitchers to get the first five outs of the game. The first allowed 6 runs, the second allowed 8. The third guy into the game has already allowed 1.

It's 15-1 Blue Jays with 2 outs in the 2nd.

Ender Inciarte was moved to corner OF last year in leiu of Keon Broxton (a former "toolsy" Phils draftee).

KAS: Best part about that box score: they've scored 15 runs on only 8 hits, and without the benefit of a homerun. My first thought: how is that even possible? Answer: the Yankees pitchers have walked 9 batters in the first 2 innings.

bay_area_phan: The good news for the Yankees is that I don't recognize any of their pitchers so far.

KAS - That's fair but 1000 MLB IP is basically 110 games.

I will say I am making a total guess but Inciarte has really surprised me this spring defensively.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=inciar001end

The reason he wasn't protected his because his numbers in 2010 and 2011 in A ball were pretty underwhelmingly. Even the numbers last year he put up were inflated a bit by playing at Visalia in the best hitting league in the minor.

I realize it's spring training, but why the hell does Clint Hurdle thinks it's such a swell idea to bunt every time a runner gets on base?

MG: I guess I'd say that 110 ML games are 110 more games than Inciarte has had above the A-ball level.

We're told Inciarte is a defensive whiz. We know that Revere can do it on the ML level.

BAP, it was his pitcher both times. It's called practice.

bay_area_phan: There's a school of thought that Clint Hurdle is an idiot.

But at least he's giving us some good infield practice!

Blue Jays finally hit a HR. Lead off man in the 3rd. 6 outs, 16 runs vs. the Yankees.

Mike: Oh, right. I didn't realize that one team was playing with the DH & one team was using its pitcher to hit.

Papelbon in! Set your panic meters to "Very concerned."

MG- right. We've have this discussion before. You were wrong then and are wrong again now.

Tabata strikes out swinging.
McCutchan grounds out weakly to the pitcher.
Hawpe strikes out swinging.

He looked great.

Set your panic meters to, "But what was his velocity!?!?!?"

That last fastball looked like a good one. He threw it right by him.

Pap seems to have found his fastball. PAPCON system is shut down until further notice.

Pap is back. Clean low-pitch count 1-2-3 inning. Pitches had a lot of movement. Didn't seem to throw a lot of fastballs and got a couple favorable calls, but he dominated. Not sure if it was planned, but he was sent in to face McCutchen and got him on a slow roller back to the mound.

Btw, I don't know about you guys, but watching Cook and Rolo battle for that sixth spot today was like watching Smoltz and Morris in game 7 of the world series. It's not everyday you get to watch two experts at their craft go out there and just completely stymie the Pittsburgh spring training lineup.

urge to panic...fading

I post the numbers yet again on Revere in CF:

134 G, 1132 1/3 IP

Revere's numbers vs league average

Fielding Pct: .980 (.990)
RF/9: 2.76 (2.61)
RF/9: 2.57 (2.59)
DRS: -4 (t-25th out of 40 CF who have played at least 1000 ING in CF since 2010)
UZR/150: 9.2 (11th out of 40 CF who have played at least 1000 ING in CF since 2010)
RZR: .937 (9th out of 40 CF who have played at least 1000 ING in CF since 2010)

There isn't a single criteria he ranks in the top 20th percentile

I got this $hit boys. Stop worrying.

Jesus. That wind must be 40-50 MPH to knock that ball down.

Papelbon was splitter-heavy again today and they had good movement and were down in the zone.

Only threw I think 3 fastballs. Curious to see what the scout guns had him at.

Excuses you'll hear over the next few days to demean Paps outing:

1. Wind was at his back.
2. Pitching against the Pirates.
3. The batters were all blind.
4. There's no way to tell his velocity and it's greatly diminished I tell ya.

When you add in revere's center field time in the minors he has played more innings than Inciarte in center (rough calculations on my iPhone). So in MG land his innings aren't enough to determine anything but Inciarte's are enough to tell us he is better.

Craziness

Jesus christ I will make a disclaimer every time I post.

As for Revere, I do want to see how we will hold up playing CF everyday over the course of a season and if that affects him at all defensively.

As for Revere's defensive numbers in CF, they speak for themselves. There isn't a single criterion in which is he an elite defender in CF. Not a one.

Did anyone say that Revere was elite in CF?

MG- are you really b*tching that Revere isn't in the 'top 20' percentile in UZR/150 and RZR, and that he's only in the 75th percentile? You're legitimately nuts. You've dug your heels in on this one and will never give in no matter what happens.

The fact that you continue to argue that Revere doesn't have enough data to show if he's an above-average CF while at the same time arguing that Inciarte is better despite A) having less time at the position, and B) having only seen him a handful of times in spring training, is probably one of the most ridiculous arguments I've ever seen you make. Even more ridiculous than the Blanton/Lannan crap yesterday.

MG: "
UZR/150: 9.2 (11th out of 40 CF who have played at least 1000 ING in CF since 2010)
RZR: .937 (9th out of 40 CF who have played at least 1000 ING in CF since 2010)"

So in summary, Ben Revere is basically top 10 in Zone Ratings for all CF over the past 3 years, and you have doubts that he is better than Ender Inciarte as a fielder?

dom 0-3, wtf.

Well, that was the first vintage Aumont pitch I've seen this spring. Full count and he threw a fast ball that veered into the back of the hitter. Juuuuust a bit inside.

It's this kind of stuff that makes me think DeFratus is a surer bet for the bullpen than Aumont.

Oh man. Aumont just drilled someone in the back with a fastball (not on purpose). If I'm a batter I'd hate standing in the box against him. His control is not that great today.

RedBurb- no one has said this, of course. MG is making up a bogus standard to ensure that Revere doesn't measure up.

Revere certainly could turn into an elite CF getting reps there everyday. He's already clearly above average. Hes 24. He runs like the wind. The potential for growth is there, and I've always felt like he could get to that point.

But no one has claimed that he's currently top-5 at the position or anything like that.

Iceman - Your simply being a horse's ass here. DRS shows he is a below average CF and even UZR/150 and RZR show he isn't an elite defender in CF.

I don't think he is a below-average CF but the number don't show either that he has been as good as several CFs the last few years including Bourn, Ellsbury, Bourjos, C. Young, C. Gomez, and Span (who has better stats in every category). Maybe even Gentry or T. Gwynn Jr although they haven't played a ton of innings there.

That's means that out of 30 MLB teams, there have been 7 guys who have been better and maybe a few guys who are his equals (F. Gutierrez and Torres) which puts Revere likely somewhere in the 8-12 spot defensively in CF right now among starting CF. That's good but not great.

MG- just stop. You are arguing against something that nobody is saying.

FWIW: In 2011, Revere primarily played CF and had a UZR/150 of 15.1 in 776.1 innings.

That ranked him 4th out of 25 players with at least 700 innings in CF.

Of course, the caveat is that defensive metrics are unstable in smaller samples.

I actually remember quite a few people (both national, and on here) claiming that Revere was possibly the best CF in baseball, defensively.

Iceman - We are argued about how good Revere was in CF and we went back and forth about how good we has with you arguing that he was among the best in MLB. Just hasn't been the case and I will drop it.


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