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Monday, March 18, 2013

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Should if it turns out that Roy Halladay has an injury
BE when it turns out that Roy Halladay has an injury
OR since it turns out that Roy Halladay has an injury

Sorry to say: I think Roy needs to pitch in a domed stadium where the heat and humidity can be controlled.

Heard Cardinals might be interested in Betancourt. Shelby Miller for Yuniesky straight up seems fair.

No, no, no. Throw in Gilles, and DEMAND Oscar Taveras.

If the Phillies could get anything in a trade for Yuni, that would have to be the crowning achievement for RAJ as a GM right?

Is it really necessary for Rodrigo to get any ABs?

The Cardinals signed Ronny Cedeno to a 1yr deal this offseason, lets do that trade straight up. I would take him over Yuni, he can at least field the position well, making him half less useless as Yuni.

Their only backup C that would be an upgrade for us is Tony Cruz, but is under team control for another 5 years and is their only option after Molina - so highly doubtful they can find anyway to turn Yuni into that.

I've been eagerly awaiting this positional ranking to see where Jimmy would wind up. They predict some regression for him, but still have the Phillies as the 4th best in the NL at the position, and openly admit that he could outperform a couple in front.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2013-positional-power-rankings-shortstop/#more-117511

Really couldn't care less about the Fangraphs positional rankings.

Cook's value doesn't go up if Doc is hurt...the team's chances of winning simply go down. Aaron Cook is not an MLB pitcher.

Really couldn't care less about the Fangraphs positional rankings.

Posted by: Nik | Monday, March 18, 2013 at 09:58 AM

I'll make a note of that. thanks.

You got it, let me know if you need other life advice.

The Yuni situation reminds me of when we thought we could get Schoop for Blanton from the O's.

Would be nice to get major-league talent in return, but if we get a C-prospect for Yuni, that would be a nice haul for a guy nobody wanted on the team in the first place.

Ryan Theriot might retire. A sad, sad day in the life of those BL posters who pined for him as a member of the Phillies.

Apparently Halladay is still sick and had to come to the ballpark to get 'medicine'. Just strange all-around.

Why is medicine in quotes?

"Ryan Theriot might retire."


Red
Burb, DPat is crying in his beer.

***Apparently Halladay is still sick and had to come to the ballpark to get 'medicine'. Just strange all-around.***

That's where his doctor is so he probably needed a script.

Just like I still have to go to a doctor when I'm sick too...instead of lying in my bed.

Though it means he's seriously ill instead of the "just drink some water and take tylenol" sick.


Apparently Halladay is still sick and had to come to the ballpark to get 'medicine'. Just strange all-around.

Posted by: Nik | Monday, March 18, 2013 at 10:09 AM


Why is that strange? With everything that is going on with banned substances, don't you think it's smarter to let the teams medical staff treat his illness as opposed to using OTC medicine?

I mean if he's bending over in pain and probably requires to be within 20 feet of a bathroom, why doesn't the team just get him his freaking medicine themselves. Why would they make him drive himself to the stadium?

Ok, Nik is outing him/herself as someone who is enraged by every little thing. Goodness.

Nik: Not a fan of intelligent thought huh?

I woke up this morning and realized that I'd devoted like an hour of my life last night to an argument over who is the better pitcher between Aaron Cook and Rodrigo Lopez. I'm feeling sort of dirty right now.

BAP, on a site where there was a days long discussion over who's a better 2-hole choice between Pete Orr and Wilson Valdez, in which I'm pretty sure we were both engaged, I don't think you have any reason to feel dirty.

Fatalotti: Against a RHP, Pete Orr, of course.

Meh, I don't get the anger and outrage, but I would've thought one of the perks of making 20 mil would be a doctor would come visit me when I'm sick and hugging the toilet.

Cool to know being rich and famous cant buy you a house call.

Fatalotti: Against a RHP, Pete Orr, of course.

Posted by: bay_area_phan | Monday, March 18, 2013 at 10:37 AM

That was my argument, as well.

But the larger argument, of course, was, against any handed pitching, both are terrible, terrible, awful, disgusting options.

The word on the street is that Halladay, who is a big soccer fan, is sick because people think the off sides rule is stupid.
Don't get mad at me, it's just the word on the street.

"But the larger argument, of course, was, against any handed pitching, both are terrible, terrible, awful, disgusting options."

I believe that was stipulated in the Cook-rolo debate, as well. Today's topic for discussion: if all 7 Phillies relievers were on a bus, and the bus crashed, and you had to re-make the bullpen from scratch, who would be the last reliever to make the team: Zach Miner or Jordan Whatcott?

"...if all 7 Phillies relievers were on a bus, and the bus crashed, and you had to re-make the bullpen from scratch".....Dubee would deny there was a bus and insist the dead relievers just needed to get there arm slot right.

"I woke up this morning and realized that I'd devoted like an hour of my life last night to an argument over who is the better pitcher between Aaron Cook and Rodrigo Lopez. I'm feeling sort of dirty right now."


bap, you should. Next.

Would it be okay to refer to Jordan Whatcott as Jordan WTF?

Then again the Os played Steel Russell (John's son) in the game. This is part of the ST fun.

The best(?) part of yesterday's game was being reminded that the Phillies actually got something in return for Joe Blanton last year when OSullivan pitched.

While I'm also concerned about Doc and his struggles in spring, I'm far more interested in his performance over his last 2-3 starts before the games actually matter. That's far more likely to give an accurate indication of what kind of Halladay we'll have this season.

FWIW, despite the Phils' propensity to obfuscate about injuries, I do believe the "Doc was puking all over the place" story from yesterday.

"I'm far more interested in his performance over his last 2-3 starts before the games actually matter."

My concern is the fear that those next 2-3 starts even happen.

Chris Snyder just got released by the Nats.

Rube should go to his house and not leave until he signs a contract.

i wouldn't go that far... but it would be nice depth.

Rosenthal reports that Chris Snyder has signed with the halo's. minor league deal with camp invite.

I'd rather have Snyder than Quintero but I dont know that its a dire situation if we dont make such a swap.

Halos? Maybe we could trade one of our excess AA/AAA pitchers for him then.

Oh wait.

My concern is the fear that those next 2-3 starts even happen.

Posted by: lorecore | Monday, March 18, 2013 at 11:43 AM

Agreed...but let's wait until it actually gets to that point before officially panicking.

The Angels have been looking for depth at catcher. Probably couldn't have traded Schwimer and the other scrub together for Snyder.

Count me in as someone who has entered the Halladay conspiracy theory world. There's just something not right with the way it has been handled. I tend to think the going to the clubhouse to get medicine is a little staged.

re: Nats catching

Wilson Ramos could be a huge sleeper for the Nats. That lineup would be a ton better if he lived up to some of his prospect potential from not that long ago.

I tend to think the going to the clubhouse to get medicine is a little staged.

Posted by: Bedrosian's Beard | Monday, March 18, 2013 at 12:02 PM

Do you usually have to go see your doctor to get a prescription? I would think that this is completely normal...

I love a conspiracy theory, so I'll throw this into the discussion: has anyone ever heard of a virus that requires prescription medication? Prescriptions are for bacterial infections & other maladies, but not viruses.

I'd rather Roy Halladay visit Biogenesis for some medicine at this point.

***The Angels have been looking for depth at catcher. Probably couldn't have traded Schwimer and the other scrub together for Snyder.***

It was more of a joke about the Cisco trade than an actual proposal.

***Do you usually have to go see your doctor to get a prescription? I would think that this is completely normal...***

Exactly.

Who said it was a virus? Stomach bugs are many times caused by bacteria.

Nik: Not really. If it's bacterial, it would be considerably more serious than if it's just a virus.

Its probably Lupus.

And no doctor would just prescribe him antibiotics unless there was solid evidence that it was bacterial.

The story does seem a little fishy.

I heard Halladay only has 48 hours to live, so he came into the complex to say his goodbyes and run the stairs one last time.

He's got the yips.

Unfortunately, there is no cure.

***And no doctor would just prescribe him antibiotics unless there was solid evidence that it was bacterial.***

To be fair, lots of doctors will give someone antibiotics even if there's no real proof of a bacterial infection...its part of the reason we are seeing drug-resistant strains of infections.

I heard Halladay only has 48 hours to live, so he came into the complex to say his goodbyes and run the stairs one last time.

Posted by: Jack | Monday, March 18, 2013 at 12:19 PM

Well, that does create some serious payroll flexibility for 2013, so there's that.

NEPP, someone disagrees:

Count me in the group of people who find this scenario to be, if anything else, just a bit awkward.

If I'm at home, can't keep anything down and feeling terrible and I need medicine, the doctor who has already seen me calls in a script and I drive the 10 seconds to my local CVS. I don't drive to the doctor's office to pick it up.

When you factor in all of the past misinformation around injuries and now the awkwardness of this latest explanation, it gives the spectator every right to doubt.

"
My concern is the fear that those next 2-3 starts even happen.

Posted by: lorecore | Monday, March 18, 2013 at 11:43 AM"


lore, once again, just for you:

http://images.wikia.com/uncyclopedia/images/9/90/The_Panic_Button.jpg

Fangraphs did their CF projections (Phillies are 24th, ouch) but they projected Revere to provide the 4th most Fielding Value of all CF. Top 5:

Bourjos
Bourn
Span
Revere
Maybin

We win with Cookie and Lopey, don't be dopey.

What actually is the policy if a player dies mid-contract? Wouldn't the money go to his estate or whatever?

The money goes to Scott Boras.

Nice writeup over at Crashburn Alley. If Doc can't go, Cloyd should be the short term solution. If they need someone long term, go with Bettibone.

Seems obvious to me that Rolo and Cook should be 8 and 9 (in whatever order). But we all know the Phils have a history of over-reacting to veterans, particularly if they have opt-out clauses in their contract.

"To be fair, lots of doctors will give someone antibiotics even if there's no real proof of a bacterial infection...its part of the reason we are seeing drug-resistant strains of infections."

You nailed it: Halladay has a drug-resistant (and probably career-ending) bacterial infection. Why else would he have to go to the ballpark to get medicine?

Panic button pushers, maybe, just maybe, because there's a virus going around the clubhouse (Pap is ill too), the team doctors are actually in the training facility examining players and administering treatment - in order to prevent a team-wide breakout.

I checked out the Fangraphs positional rankings. Obviously they don't mean anything, but it's interesting just to check it out.

One thing that strikes me is that the Phils are basically boom or bust by position. So far, they've had players ranked in the top 10 at C, 2B, and SS, and they've had players ranked from 23-30 at 1B, 3B, and CF.

The number rankings don't matter even as projections (these things aren't linear--the difference between any given number might be huge or miniscule), but I thought that was notable, because it struck me as basically true. In Ruiz, Rollins, Utley, the top of the rotation, and Papelbon, the Phillies have elite players at the top of their positions. But everywhere else, they're really weak. They've always had stars of course, but now it seems they're missing the sort of average to above-average starter role players they always had in 2008-2010 in Victorino, Werth, Ruiz, Ibanez (his first year), Madson.

Others may disagree. But completely subjectively, I thought it reflected at least something that could be true. Discuss.

rolo: If there's a virus going around the clubhouse, there is no medication or treatment that can prevent a team-wide breakout. What COULD prevent a team-wide breakout would be to make sure the afflicted parties stay the hell away from the clubhouse.

"but they projected Revere to provide the 4th most Fielding Value of all CF..."


But that would be considered "elite" defensively, no?

No way....NO WAY!

I have been assured by MG that Revere's defense is in no way that good - or at least there isn't enough of a sample size to say so.

D8mn those fansgraphs guys for contradicting MG. D8mn them.

lorecore, that article is right about one thing.

CF is a deep position in baseball this year.

Its African Rabies.

I'm thinking Brain Cloud.

Sil, great image, btw.

"What actually is the policy if a player dies mid-contract? Wouldn't the money go to his estate or whatever?"

I think it's awesome that we've come to the point in a discussion where these questions can be asked.

Beerleaguer is fun.

And if it's not Lupus, it's gotta be Sarcoidosis.

I said staged, not strange. Hey, Roy go to the clubhouse and show everyone you're sick. Oh, tell everyone you were sick last season too!

I see a ton of very optimistic CF projections that make the position look at lot stronger than i think it is:

Ellsbury/Vic
Fowler
Eaton
Granderson
Choo
De Aza
Leonys Martin
DeJesus

Jack, I'm not disagreeing, but those fangraphs projections/rankings are, to an extentt, arbitrary.

For instance, let's see where Brown gets ranked among corner OF. Based on his ST performance, if he can somehow put up an OPS of .800 or more, that could boost things considerabley.

Also, I'll give odds that Ryan Howard - if he's healthy all year - produces better than 24th on the list of 1B.

IMHO there's a lot of recency bias in those numbers, so we'll see.

If by "sick," he means "torn rotator cuff" then maybe they are telling the truth.

I sincerely hope my jest does not approach truth. Sixth starters, seen for more than 2-5 starts per season or so, are certainly a bad sign. Suck vs. suck is still suck, unfortunately - especially if the need arises.

rolo, I can almost guarantee that Howard won't rank in the top 20 1B this year in terms of fWAR, because he hasn't had an fWAR above 1.7 since 2009. UZR/150 and BSR both despise him, and fWAR uses those in its calculation.

Not saying it'll be correct that he's not a 20 1B, but I can all but guarantee that fWAR won't think so.

If I'm interpreting the CBA correctly, the team is still liable for the player's salary if he dies. But the team takes out an insurance policy on the player's life, which reimburses them for $1M, plus 75% of the player's salary beyond $1M, with a cap of $30M. It's on pages 293 and 294 of the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Saw those power rankings. They couldn't go five minutes without slurping Span and called him the best acquisition of the off-season.

I love Fangraphs (I paid for their + section) but they get stuck on some stuff (like Span) that just make them look ridiculous.

Iceman, it seems like it was a pretty darn good deal for the Nats. And they ranked him 18th on the list, so I'm not sure they are "slurping" over him.

Maybe if Halladay has a bug and is throwing up, he could be dehydrated. So since most people can't get an IV at CVS that the team doctors are giving it to him. Since they say rest and plenty of fluids are the best thing when you have a virus, this could make sense.
Or it really is the off sides rule in soccer that has got him down.

"IMHO there's a lot of recency bias in those numbers, so we'll see."

That's the 2nd time you've used the term "recency bias" in the last few days. I get what you're trying to say, and there's some validity to it, but I'm not sure "bias" is really an accurate word to describe it. After all, recent performance DOES tend to be the best predictor of future performance. There's nothing biased about a measurement system which rests on that assumption.

I'm thinking Brain Cloud.

Posted by: Five-4-One | Monday, March 18, 2013 at 12:40 PM

Nice quote. One of my all time favorite movies.

Fatti, in the past we (as a group) have engaged in numerous discussions about fWAR, bWAR and how they are calculated. Also UZR and other defensive metrics.

So, I'm not going to revisit their relative merits and flaws.

What I will state is this: Because of it's reliance on the defensive metrics you cite, you may be correct in that fWAR may indeed "penalize" Howard.

Still, I find it hard to believe that if Howard is healthy all season and hitting for power, he'll be in the bottom 10. If he hit's 35-45 HR and drives in 120 runs he'll be valuable to this team, much moreso than any stat can calculate.

rolo, in 2010 and 2011, Ryan Howard had 64 HR and a ~.230 ISO in both seasons.

He was ranked 16th in fWAR in 2010 and 17th in fWAR in 2011 among qualified 1B.

Maybe he'll sneak into the top 20, but fWAR won't view him favorably unless it think his defense and baserunning aren't among the worst in the league (something I'm not optimistic it will do).

Also, those are positional rankings, not player rankings, meaning it takes into account all players that will get reps at 1B. If you just look at the top players themselves, it actually ranks Howard higher than Garret Jones and equal to Mitch Moreland, so an argument could be made that he's ranked as the 21st best 1B on that list, and he's only a hair behind Morneau.

g'damn what i'd do for 45HR..

Well, not quite the start Lopez was seeking.

Booming double.
Ground out.
Home run that would have left Yellowstone.

That ball Justin Upton just hit will land back at Turner Field just before first pitch on Opening Day

Lopez is throwing batting practice. Four of first five hitters reached base with three extra base hits.

RoLOLOLOLOLOL

FAtti, WAR also rewards guys for time played.

For instance, Michael Bourn had a higher WAR last season than Giancarlo Stanton - probably mostly because he had 202 more PA last season.

So, Howard's projection is based on the fact that they only project him to play 138 games (595 PA actually, but given he's averaged 4.28 PA/game in MLB it calculates to 138 games).

That's why Howard staying healthy is so important.

Well, at least he got to face the K-machine, Dan Uggla, who swung at ball four.

Rolo sucks it up here. Going to be 10-0 before the 2nd.

Don't think either ball was catchable but looked like Revere turned the wrong way on both.
Rolo making Cook look good.Even making Roy's 1 inning look good.

Lopez has settled in now, he's just giving up singles instead of extra base hits.

jr: There hasn't been a catchable ball. Lopez is getting hammered.

Ruf has Francisco dead to rights at home but Quintero drops the ball and Francisco is safe..


5-0 Braves bottom of the first.

Jesus, pull this guy.

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