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Saturday, March 16, 2013

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Wonder if the Phillies could work a trade of Gillies for Inciarte.

Some of the best news of the spring so far is Mike Adams. It was only a few weeks ago there were major worries about whether he'd be ready for the season. He looks more than ready.

And, of course, Dom continues to impress.

Dragon: Considering that Inciarte was left unprotected by the D-Backs, whereas Gillies is still probably one of the Phillies' 25 best prospects, that would be a fairly steep price. But I could actually see it happening because the Phillies must surely be growing tired of Gillies' never-ending run of injuries and off-field adventures.

Any trade that involves Gillies is a win. His removal is a reward in and of itself.

Yeah, can we dump Tyson Gillies as soon as possible?

For a position in which we have pretty much zero organizational depth, we don't really need a guy who put up a .822 OPS in 311 PAs in AA last year.

Yes, he's had his injury issues. Yes, he's had his off field issues.

He also has a career OBP of .395 in 1446 minor league plate appearances.

But by all means, time for him to go.

Yes, despite his mildly impressive performance when he isn't hurt or suspended, it is time for him to go.

Durbin goes 3 scoreless innings? How is that possible? The guy is a useless POS.

Check out the game highlights on mlb.com. Not only did Dom hit a long HR, he also had 2 diving catches in LF.

Franzke and Andersen gave Hamels line from the minor league game during the broadcast, don't remember the exact numbers, but they didn't sound great. Anybody hear how he looked?

Brown didn't hit a "off-speed" pitch off Kuroda for the dinger.

That was an inside fastball, that he turned on and kept fair down the line.

Really a great piece of hitting. That's a pitch last year or the year before that he likely either swings-and-misses or he fouls off weakly.

Can't overestimate how important Brown is to the success of this club. He has to produce and also stay healthy. Two things he's had no luck with so far as a big leaguer.

I would actually like to see them take a chance on a lottery ticket like Mitchell to start the season (before Young comes back) than go with the predictably terrible other options.

He can draw a walk and has plus speed and defense (according to clout's scouting report). That provides at least some value off the bench and would be a better choice than letting Ruf ride the pine. He has one tool (power) that he hasn't flashed more than once during spring training. What's the point in putting him on the bench when he could be getting real reps both offensively and defensively in the minors?

Amaro said something interesting on Delmon Young the other day that nobody picked up on because it goes against the 'Young will get 450-500 ABs' conventional wisdom. He said that he wants to get him a good amount of innings in RF before he sees any major league action and if he can't field the position, then he's not going to play (paraphrasing).

I have a "strong suspicion" that the 'Young is the RF starter' BS that has never been confirmed by Amaro or Manuel is just that, and he won't get more than 100 PAs as a starting RF for the team. Because we all know he probably isn't going to be able to field the position even halfway competently.

That the Phillies even let Durbin pitch 3 innings is somewhat revealing. It seems like they were testing him out to see if he can still handle long relief duty. That would seem to cut against the speculation that they might keep a guy like Rolo or Cook, whose only real attribute is an ability to pitch multiple innings.

Ice, Amaro said in an interview right after DYoung was signed that he wasn't going to be handed the job, that he was going to have to prove himself, but everybody ignored that and fixated on the "ideally he'll be our starting rightfielder" quote.

bay_area_phan: With guys like Durbin (who's done it in the past), Valdes (who's a converted starter) and Horst (who did some long man duty last year)... I can't see why they'd be compelled to keep either Rolo or Cook on the team.

I just don't see it happening.

I thought the same thing on Durbin (the bump to 3 innings of work was really out of nowhere) and I think this is a great idea, if he can still handle the job. He's the type of guy that can fool a lineup one time through with the slop that he throws. He's more suited for two-inning duty after a Lannan 5-inning start, or a KK implosion, than Aaron Cook or rolo.

He only pitched 1+ innings last year three times, but in 2011 he had 16 appearances of 5+ outs (36 innings) with a 3.25 ERA- significantly better than his overall 5.53 ERA. The problem with Durbin is that in a lineup loaded with LHB, this isn't going to necessarily work. But if he is more comfortable with throwing multiple innings than he is coming in in the middle of an inning, then by all means they should give it a shot.

Mike G- exactly right. By the end of the day he was signed, Young was getting all the starts in RF, according to basically every baseball website imaginable. It's simply not what was said, and there's no reason to believe Young is going to get any more special treatment than other guys on the depth chart. If he sucks, he's not going to start. And he's probably going to suck (especially defensively).

Durbin pitching multiple innings (5+ outs):

2011 (16 appearances): 26IP, 3.25 ERA
2010 (12 appearances): 23.2IP, 1.52 ERA
2009 (14 appearances): 31.1IP, 2.30 ERA
2008 (22 appearances): 46.2IP, 1.93 ERA

The Braves only used him once last year for 5+ outs, probably because the long-man role was filled and their bullpen is loaded. I assumed he didn't pitch multiple innings anymore because he had proven he couldn't handle it, but the opposite is true. This would probably be the ideal role to give Durbin (it keeps him in innings 5-7), and I'm glad they're giving it a shot.

Iceman - interesting numbers. Given the rotation and Halladay's iffy status, they are likely going to need 2-3 relievers who can pitch more than IP. Durbin, Horst, and Valdes all can do that and a key reason why I bet all 3 are on the Opening Day roster.

Gillies is a guy I hope the Phils can move this season for a piece they need at the deadline (one of the secondary pieces) or next offseason.

Phils are set in CF for the foreseeable future and anyone that Gillies brings back that contributes at MLB level is a win for the Phils.

MG: If the Phillies can get something of value, it would make sense. I'm just not sure they can.

And although I like Revere, there are still questions about his bat. And for some, there are even questions about his defense ;-)

I'd much rather Gillies have a good year this year in AAA making him a much more valuable trade chip should the time come.

Two years ago, Brown weakly flys out on that pitch. That pitch used to kill him.

Huge.

I just read the rest of the thread...yeah, that pitch.

NEPP: Yep, a high inside fastball was something he couldn't get his hands around on. Was this the Wally Joyner influence? Moved his hands allowing him to set up faster and get the bat through the zone?

Seemed like it, he pulled his hands in and just turned on it. I think the strength gain/weight gain he had over the off-season was a lot of it too. He just muscled it out.

Iceman: "Durbin goes 3 scoreless innings? How is that possible? The guy is a useless POS. "

This post reminds me of when clout would insult posters for calling Polanco 'washed up' after he stroked one of his 15 2B last year...all to end up with a 70 OPS+. How silly of us "BL'ers" for thinking Polanco was finished.

Durbin isn't useless, but if he's put into high leverage situations, he is likely to fail as often as he succeeds. That's not his role and he doesn't have the stuff to fill it.

If Manuel chooses to use him as a "long man" or in 6th and 7th inning situations, he could do just fine for us.

If Manuel chooses to use him as a "long man" or in 6th and 7th inning situations, he could do just fine for us.

Posted by: Kendrick Appreciation Society | Saturday, March 16, 2013 at 08:38 PM

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If Adams is the 8th inning guy, and Papelbon is the closer, what other role besides long man or 6th or 7th inning guy would Durbin fill?

KAS: Agreed about Adams being the best thing in camp. Far and away the biggest improvement this team could make.

Far and away the biggest improvement would be having an above average Right Fielder that makes league minimum. But that obviously is still to be determined.

Mike G: Adams can't pitch the 8th every night. I'm hoping Durbin isn't the choice for the 8th when Adams isn't available.

"Adams can't pitch the 8th every night."

'Wanna bet?' - Charlie Manuel

Bastardo should be the 'other' 8th inning guy with Aumont as a possible high leverage guy.
I'd see Durbin and Valdes as the long-men options for blowouts or extra innings.
That leaves one more spot and I'd like to see Diekman as a LOOGY, though Manuel has never seemed to be able to use that role effectively.

Biggest issue I see is that few of the bullpen guys are not great 'fireman' types due to their poor control: Bastardo, Aumont, Diekman. But Valdes and Durbin are not strikeout guys... so it'd be nice if one of the others gets their control under control.

nik: Disagree. While RF upgrade is sorely needed, it doesn't match the help needed in the 8th:

2012 RF AVG: .262/.327/.434
2012 PHI RF: .246/.315/.411 (23rd in mlb)

2012 8th inn AVG: .243/.313/.381 against
2012 PHI 8th inn .263/.351/.440 against (last in mlb)

lorecore-

You do realize you're comparing one inning every game (8th inning batting against) with nine innings every game (RF batting)?

April is the most important month for long men with the constant threat of rain delays. A long delay early in the game, where the starter can't come back, makes a long man important. Also, starters don't usually go much more than 90 pitches their first few starts. Chances are better for long men making opening day, and if they suck, then you go to the younger guys.

lore- out of curiosity where did you get those 8th inning numbers? Somewhere on B-Ref?

I remember looking for the bullpen's comprehensive 8th-inning numbers recently and not finding them anywhere.

At this point I think DeFratus and Diekman are real long shots to make the team. I think Stutes is a long shot too, but he might be able to beat out Valdez or Horst. Aumont needs a couple of really solid outings to lock up a spot, but if he starts walking people he might just go to AAA too.

Valdes has inside shot now for one of the spots.
Jermaine Mitchell may have an outside shot over next 2 weeks to grab a roster spot. If a trade to keep Incarte is made, then more likely Mitchell takes a roster spot.
Given: Revere & Brown
3 of: Nix (LH), Mayberry (RH), Ruf (RH), Incarte (LH), Mitchell (LH), Orr (RH as IF/OF utility), Young (RH) in May.

2012 RF AVG: .262/.327/.434
2012 PHI RF: .246/.315/.411 (23rd in mlb)
2012 8th inn AVG: .243/.313/.381 against
2012 PHI 8th inn .263/.351/.440 against (last in mlb)

Those are all rate stats, but I think lore is pointing out the rankings for his comparisons. 23rd is bad, but 30th is dreadful. As for them not being of similar sample size:
1. RF= 1/9 of the positions and the 8th inning is approx. 1/9 of the IP.
2. With and OBP against of .351, you're looking at an avg. of 4-5 PA per 8th inning, but closer to 4. (Unless my math is way off)

Bob - Orr is a LH batter.

Justin d and jake the snake to AAA. As well as fields.

popj: "RF= 1/9 of the positions and the 8th inning is approx. 1/9 of the IP."

Exactly, they are the same sample size.

PHI RF: 689 PA
PHI 8th Inn: 724 PA

Iceman: Go to b-ref and click on League Pitching Splits - http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=p&year=2012&lg=MLB

There is a split for every inning in red text, if you click on 8th inning, it will expand the category for every team.

Off Topic: Has anyone else been pleasantly surprised by Michael Young’s third base defence ? He made a few really quick plays yesterday, and exhibited a strong throwing arm. He doubled off Ichiro at first, which was just a really heads up play, in my opinion.

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