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Monday, March 25, 2013

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Lerud is who I want. I don't care about offensive. Just give me a back up who can catch a ball and throw it. Am really looking forward to when the minor rosters come out also.

I find myself wondering if the Phils aren't talking catching with other clubs. Quintero vs. Lerud to back up Kratz for a month can't look all that appetizing to the FO.

This is for Rolo:

Dubee on Aumont:

March 2010

Dubee criticizes Aumont early in camp questioning his mound composure and Aumont is sent down early with the first roster thin downs.

March 2012:

March 18 - Pitching coach Rich Dubee was critical of prospect Phillippe Aumont after a nightmarish inning. Aumont allowed two hits, walked two, threw a wild pitch and three Blue Jays stole three bases. "He's erratic," Dubee said. "Slow delivery to the plate. He's inconsistent. He has a great arm. He has great stuff. But we have a lot of work to do there."

March 2013:

Dubee hasn't said anything critical or negative of Aumont. Hasn't really said anything praising Aumont either.

These are Aumont's numbers with the Phils this spring:

6 1/3 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 K

He's thrown 34 strikes in 49 pitches (~69%).

These are Stutes' numbers:

10 IP, 10 H, 9 R, 9 ER, 8 BB, 8 K

He's thrown just 50 strikes in 79 pitches (~63%). Given up at least 1 ER in 5 of his 10 appearances.

Yeah they are ridiculously SSS but how can anyone rightly think both Stutes/Aumont have performed on a similar level this spring?

The only way that Aumont doesn't make this roster on Opening Day is if Dubee has a key role in that decision. Cholly has spoken positively of him. Sandberg has too.

I love that two handpicked quotes over the course of 3 years is support that Dubee has an irrational dislike of Aumont.

Sweeney would be an upgrade over Inciarte but it's too bad they didn't just keep Schierholtz instead. He's the better player.

Redburb - Yeah I cherry picked but try to go and find a positive quote that Dubee gave on Aumont.

Dubee is generally not a coach the is vocally critical of his players though unless that player was named KK. That is why it is just a bit unusual.

I don't see how a quote from 2010, when he was expected to start in A ball, has any bearing on him now.

RedBurb - It isn't the most pressing thing but why go out of your weigh as a pitching coach to publicly criticize a highly-touted prospect who was arguably the center piece of the Lee trade.

That isn't something teams do.

March 18 - Pitching coach Rich Dubee was critical of prospect Phillippe Aumont after a nightmarish inning. Aumont allowed two hits, walked two, threw a wild pitch and three Blue Jays stole three bases. "He's erratic," Dubee said. "Slow delivery to the plate. He's inconsistent. He has a great arm. He has great stuff. But we have a lot of work to do there."

----------------------------------------------
What exactly did he say that was inaccurate?

Lerud and Quintero are pretty awful, but I don't find myself especially distraught that one of them will be making 7 or 8 starts at the beginning of the year. I mean, sure it sucks. But it's only a few games, and the idea that there's some guy on the waiver wire who would be a meaningful upgrade strikes me as pretty quixotic.

I shouldn't have used the word 'irrational.' It just struck me a bit strange that a piching coach who normally isn't critical of his players in public/media (not Joe Kerrigan) was so with Aumont when he first arrived here & last spring.

There is definitely truth to what Dubee said last spring but organizations typically don't want their pitching coach talking negatively about one of their highly-touted prospects.

Diamondbacks just released Rod Barajas.

In case anybody thinks I was serious, the previous post was a joke.

What did he actually say in 2010? All you say is that Dubee criticized him and he was sent down with the first cuts. Now being a guy not expected to have a chance with the MLB team, being sent down means absolutely nothing in this situation. Criticizing his composure was warranted as I remember that being a pretty big knock on Aumont throughout his career. Things would go bad, and then would get worse. Saying it was something he needed to improve on is spot on. Doesn't show a dislike at all.

I still think that Aumont makes the team however. Stutes has to show he's healthy and the best chance for that is in LV.

I think this was also the reason DeFratus was sent down.

the hook: "Lerud is who I want. I don't care about offensive. Just give me a back up who can catch a ball and throw it."

Then you want Quintero - he's the no-hit defensive catcher, not Lerud.

Carrera is already pretty much everything Ender could ever hope to be... a crappy player with speed.

No brainer to take Carrera over Inciarte if those are your only two options.

Didn't someone say Lerud was better at handling the staff?

"Ezequiel Carrera or Ender Inciarte?"

That's like choosing between lethal injection and hanging.

I bet we could all find two cherry picked quotes for any coach negative about a player and declare it as an "irrational dislike." Ridiculous assertion by MG and even more ridiculous evidence.

For the bullpen we just need to scout other teams 40 man rosters. MG assured me the other night that no other team carries dead weight like the Phillies on their 40 man. So someone should be out there.

With Betancourt gone, Mini-Mart & Ruf banished to AAA, and Inciarte pretty clearly not ready for the majors, I don't think there's any remaining mystery who's going to get that last roster spot. It's Pete Orr, who seems to have almost as many major league lives as Mini-Mart.

But Orr was poised for a break-out year as recently as 2011.

No to Humberto. Seen him in spring t and just sloppy and lazy on D. Lerud can play a little d and pitchers like throwing to him.

Cyclic: He's poised for one again. He has a .667 spring slugging pct. Those spring training predictors can't really be wrong twice in a row, can they?

TTI - No team is carrying 5 relievers as crappy as the Phils on the 40-man roster. Not even the Mets.

The point is the Phils have a bunch of mediocre middle relief options and little dept yet again this year. Just a little better this year with De Fratus down in T-AAA instead and a bit more depth with Stutes healthy.

If anyone cared, I ran a quick look at 2012 data of Infield Hit % and OPS, and my hypothesis was wrong. There is no correlation between the two - both good and poor hitters end up with the same percent of infield hits.

I did see a pretty good correlation between SB and IFH% though, so to not much of a surprise, it suggests that players good at stealing get more infield hits than players who aren't.

In that case, Jimmy Rollins does seem to be an outlier. Over the last 5 years, I found the players who had the most steals per infield hit - or basically - who possesses the most ability to steal without the ability to beat out inf hits:

Player Name sb per ifh
Brian Roberts 3.30
Jimmy Rollins 3.16
Coco Crisp 3.06
Willy Taveras 2.94
Chone Figgins 2.66
B.J. Upton 2.60
Rajai Davis 2.60
Shin-Soo Choo 2.58
Carlos Gomez 2.46
Nyjer Morgan 2.39

Data is from 2008-2012, min of 25 inf hits (5 inf hit a year). So it certainly looks like Jimmy has something going on out of the box that affects him more than on the bases.

I'd just keep Jermaine Mitchell. No point in signing a guy that you'll just have to waive in two weeks when Delmon Young is ready. Inciarte's nowhere close to ready, and his skill set is redundant in the organization.

MG- You really need to stop with this stupid line of reasoning.

Again- look at all the teams in major league baseball. You are claiming that a majority of them are 9 or 10 deep at pitcher as far as "not crappy." There is no way even you believe something that idiotic.

Pete Orr -- 2013 MLB All Star

I read it on Beerleaguer (because I wrote it)

I'd like them to swing a deal for Tabata play him LF & bat him second

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130324&content_id=43261574&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

Is there an relationship between ISO and IF hit percentage? Does it make sense for there to be one? I'm not super sure how ISO is calculated but I know that it measures power so wouldn't it stand to reason that someone with good power doesn't have many IF hits?

Why would Tabata's 86 OPS+ (last year) be better than our internal options right now?

DBacks released Rod Barajas today so, there's that option . . .

*** I'm not super sure how ISO is calculated***

Its batting average once you take out singles.

Its Extra Bases divided by ABs.

Or, more simply:

SLG - BA

Yeah, that would be a more succinct definition.

I like Tabata as a young player with upside. The problem is his long-term contract - he's due $1M this year, then $3M, $4M, and $4.5M the next three seasons (plus buyouts on three team options after that). That's a big gamble on a corner OF who hit like a shortstop in his third MLB season and ended up back in AAA.

MG, thank you for proving my point.

All of Dubee's displeasure seems tied to Aumont's overall performance.

Unless, or course, you think 6.1 IP is enough of a sample size to prove Aumont has turned the corner. Oh wait... there is the problem of the BB/9 in those 6.1 IP isn't there.

MG, you labeled Dubee "irrational". I think there's enough evidence to support the point that his frustration with Aumont is not "irrational". Besides, you have no idea whether Aumont is coachable and/or resistant to Dubee's attempts to coax better results out of him.

Now, that is not to say I prefer the Stutes we've seen so far to Aumont.

Chris Young (the pitcher) opted out of his deal with the Nats...he might be worth a look.

Thanks.

gobay: No there is not. Infield Hit % doesn't correlate with anything other than speed related statistics from what I can see.

An important note - Infield Hits don't include Bunt Hits as they are tracked separately. I guess you call these 'Unintentional' Infield Hits. And from all signs that I can see, all skill levels of hitters are subject to the same chance of getting an infield hit, until you factor in their running ability.

Was reading ESPN the magazine before I got my MRI tonight, and there was a lengthy article on Joey Votto. It is absolutely worth a read, as it details the intricacies of his hitting approach and his style.

The most fantastic stat in the article?

Joey Votto's OBP in ABs that had 2 strikes: .394

Crazy.

Joey Votto is just sick. I think he gets overlooked a bit because he's not a 40 HR guy.

I agree NEPP.

But then you realize he has a .429 OBP and a 163 OPS+ over the last 4 seasons.

Wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he has a couple more 170+ OPS+ seasons in him.

Jose Tabata vs. LHP (294 PA): .347 OBP; .384 SLG
Mayberry Jr vs. LHP (344 PA): .328 OBP; .547 SLG

Not a horrible idea, pb, but chances are Tabata (97 OPS+) isn't a big upgrade over Mayberry (103 OPS+).

Votto is a great talent. He reminds me of stories I've heard about Ted Williams in how he obsessed with hitting technique and theory.

This Dubee/Aumont conspiracy MG is pulling out of thin air is a signal that the regular season needs to start ASAP.

The only positive to take from today's game was that Lannan has proven that he is still lower on the starter depth charts than Doc or Cliffie.
Memo to CM: forget the extra utility IF , take a lot of long relievers, we're gonna need them.

Its not a conspiracy. The FO (Looper and Proefrock in particular) both gave some praise on Aumont this spring as did Cholly/Sandberg.

Given their performances this spring, Aumont is the clear choice over Stutes unless their are extenuating circumstances we don't know about (likely not health from Aumont's usage or velocity) or Amaro for some reason has some objection.

If the Phils do go with Stutes for some reason on Opening Day, then yeah I imagine that Dubee's input played a key role in that decision. Frankly, I am surprised there is even much of a choice regarding the two yet at this role in camp.

Why do people have to be so thick on this point?

Hell, Aumont pitched a lot better than most of the middle relievers in camp including a few guys who will make the Opening Day roster including Durbin & Horst. You could even argue Valdes although I thought he had a pretty good camp & has good stuff when I have seen him.

Not that I suddenly become an Aumont fan by any stretch. I still think his career with the Phils is going to resemble Gomes which isn't a positive for the Phils.

MG -- I hear you. Aumont's 12 - 6 curve is terrifying; I'm not sure if he really ever knows where it's going. That and the fact he's the only guy in the pen who has consistent "plus" velocity (people, don't have a meltdown if I'm wrong on this point) makes any batter he faces ostensibly very, very reluctant to "dig in" and wait for a pitch.

Regardless, with a couple of clean innings this spring, it proves he can dial it back a touch and still be really effective. If Aumont does not make the club, something's fishy...

MG, you're lamenting about an "irrational dislike" which has no basis in fact.

If anyone is being thick on that point - it's you.

I haven't seen anyone here object to your desire to see Aumont make the team in leiu of Stutes. Ain't no one else bein' thick!


Iceman is exactly right:

"This Dubee/Aumont conspiracy MG is pulling out of thin air..."

Or, are you pulling it out of somewhere else?

Not crazy about Lannan's rather nonchalant attitude about getting his butt kicked today.

Congrats to awh on discovering that Jimmy Rollins isn't slow. Serves me right for thinking one might speak with emphasis for effect, and still be understood.

For the record, there are other dimensions of his game in which Rollins displays less speed than he is typically credited for (or fails to use his speed at all - see below).

After awh's outburst of infancy, I asked myself: what gives me the impression that JR isn't as fast as is thought? Maybe I'm mistaken.

In addition to the infield hit oddity and lack of triples:

1. When a force at second is in order and he hits a ground ball that's fielded, he fails to beat the relay throw as many times as a fast runner should. That's the sense I have from watching him play over many years, but moreso in the last 2.5 years. Is that trustworthy? It'd be interesting to see how often Rollins GIDP as opposed to simply hitting into a fielder's choice when he hits a fielded ground ball when a force is in order, compared to the lowest GIDP guys in the league. I would bet it's significantly higher, though a relatively small sample.

2. In high-leverage steal situations (JR on first, last three innings of a game, score tied or Phils down a run), my sense is he doesn't run nearly as often as his gaudy steal% would dictate he do. That is: when his speed is most valuable, it isn't used.

Disabuse me of these impressions, and I'll gladly stand corrected (if anyone can stand this).

awh - I said 'irrational' was a poor choice of words but the only reason there is a 'decision' yet regarding the last bullpen spot is either Dubee or Amaro has some kind of reservation about Aumont making the Opening Day roster.

I would wager the decision has been made but there is no need to go public with it just yet.

NEPP- I would definitely looks at Chris Young (the pitcher) too. Why not? If were talking about bringing Cook up as soon as someone gets hurt, wouldn't you feel better with Chris Young (the pitcher)? I would.

I actually like Stutes somewhat more than most here. In no way would I ever consider keeping him over Aumont but, ideally, I'd prefer him to Valdes, whose age & career track record suggest little possibility of repeating last year's success. Problem with Stutes is that he probably needs some time to build back his arm strength. But I expect he'll be back on the roster before the All Star break, probably at the expense of either Valdes or Durbin.

I think I finally understand the source of Bittel's confusion - he's clearly referring to the 6-2, 200lb Jimmy D Rollins of the Burlington minor league team, who in his only season stole nary a base. Problem solved.

bittel, no one can disabuse you of your opinions in this matter, because you have moving the goalposts and setting up impossible targets.

Do you really expect someone to find out how often Jimmy Rollins hits into fielder's choices, and how that compares to the league? Or if his SB frequency in late game situations doesn't match up with that of his peers?

ALL the evidence supports the notion that Rollins is an ELITE baserunner. If you feel that he's lacking in certain situations, then dig into the numbers yourself, and show us that he's lacking in these situations in which you purport.

Otherwise, kindly drop it.

BAP, neither Stutes or Valdes have much of a track record, but in their limited track records over the last 2 years, Valdes has clearly been the far better pitcher.

He has a 140 ERA+ over the last 2 seasons. That includes a 12 IP performance in 2012, but even with Stutes, we're dealing with ridiculously small samples, since he only pitched 5.2 innings last year.

I don't know that either is a great choice, but I don't know why you'd feel particularly inclined to grab Stutes over Valdes, and I don't see how "track record" can really be used to support Stutes over Valdes.

Why do people have to be so thick on this point?

Posted by: MG

______________________________________________

Talk about the pot calling the kettle.....

Bittle, you are all over the place right now. But I'll bite. In what B-Ref calls "late and close" games Rollins stole 10 bases and was caught zero times in 2012 in 110 PAs. That's a third of his steals in far less than a third of his PAs. There's no way to spin that.
It might feel like he doesn't steal much in those situations because we as fans want him to steal and make it every time he's on late in a game but that is impossible and not worth the risk.

BTW, is there an official number/quantification for the speed that Rollins is typically credited for? I mean, nobody has ever said he was Vince Coleman or Rickey Henderson so I'm not sure what bittel is even arguing against at this point.

All I know is that throughout his career and including last year, he's been one of the very best baserunners in the Majors when it comes to both SBs and taking the extra base.

"After awh's outburst of infancy..."


Like I posted yesterday, some people here seem to have lost their sense of humor.

On a side note, Jimmy is the best SS in franchise history by a fairly significant margin and we will all miss him when he is no longer a Phillie. Much like Schmidt's retirement, Jimmy leaving or retiring is going to leave a massive hole in our infield for years.

You could also say the same about Chase Utley.

Also, I'd rather a SB guy steal 30-40 bases a year and get caught 5-6 times than steal 60-70 bases a year and get caught 15-20 times.

Basically, I'd rather have Rollins out there than Jose Reyes. The marginal gain of taking that extra base via stealing is easily wiped out by the far greater chance of getting caught.

"awh - I said 'irrational' was a poor choice of words but the only reason there is a 'decision' yet regarding the last bullpen spot is either Dubee or Amaro has some kind of reservation about Aumont making the Opening Day roster."


MG. that's more like it.

Maybe, just maybe, they think he still walks too many guys. Maybe, just maybe, he's not very coachable or doesn't listen.

As a comparison (without any evidence other than the naked eye) I recall how many times Dubee has gotten in KK's face on the mound during conferences. It seems to me that Dubee just gets frustrated with guys who he feels have potential but have trouble - or worse, are resistant to - harnessing that potential.

Diekman also has been the subject of Dubee's evil eye during mound conferences. How frustrating must it be for Dubee to see guys like Aumont and Diekman, who throw in the mid-to-high ninetees, display an inability to get the ball over the plate when they have to.

Lastly, MG, has it ever occured to you that different people are motivated by different things? Has it occured to you that perhaps this is the way they're motivating Aumont - that they feel just handing him the job will not serve his or their purpose?

"...then dig into the numbers yourself..."


This.

NEPP, both Rollins and Utley are the best players at their positions in franchise history. They will be missed. Utley, during his peak, was playing at a HOF level.

Yo, new thread!

That is completely accurate. And the margin for both of them is pretty large.

Rollins is a significantly better SS than Bowa ever was in pretty much every facet of the game (and I'd imagine he'd make a better manager/coach too).

Utley is lightyears ahead of every other 2B in franchise history too. Nap Lajoie would have been top on the list had he spent more of his career here...He only spend the first 5 seasons as a Phillie and then jumped ship across town to the A's before heading to Cleveland (the team he's most associated with).

After that's is a fairly large dropoff to Trillo and Samuel.

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