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Thursday, February 07, 2013

Comments

Mike, when speaking of a pitcher's ERA, shouldn't you use the term "career best" instead of "career high"?

Just askin'.

Kenny Giles/Powers

If Gio's career high ERA is 2.89, we're in world of hurt this year.

Fatti, yeah, if it's that we're facing teh second coming of Koufax.

Yes, I should report them as career bests and have changed it as such. Thanks.

"A lot depends, though, on LaRoche and Ian Desmond replicating their breakout performances of 2012,..."


A "breakout performance" for LaRoche? At the age of 32?

Methinks that's a bit of a mischaracterization.

Does Chooch's suspension preclude him from attending Spring Training?

norbert, no.

I beleive he's also allowed to travel with the team, though I'm not sure.

Has anyone mentioned the whole high vs best thing yet?

Seriously though, I agree the Mets didnt do anything and they will likely be terrible this year.

The Nats are the class of the East right now.

Rolo: Thanks. So the minimum amount of games he will miss is 25, barring injury of course. I though that if he wasn't able to attend Spring Training that number would go up with the probable need for a rehab assignment type schedule of games.

It will be interesting to see how good both the Nats and Braves are this season.

Both outperformed their Pythagorean W-L in 2012, the Braves doing it by 4 games and the Nats doing it by 2.

That said, the composition of both teams has changed (as has the Phils).

IMHO, the biggest move by any team in the NL East was the addition of Soriano to the Nats' bullpen. Until that happened I thought a healthy Phils team had a puncher's chance of winning the division, but I don't anymore.

I think they'll fight it out with the Braves for 2nd place and a potential playoff spot.

The deciding factor will probably be the head-to-head games.

Also isn't it Pedro Feliciano?

BTW, as to the discussion on the last thread about marrying one's cousin, if your cousin looks like Priyanka Chopra's cousin I'm all in:

http://www.radiosargam.com/films/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Priyanka-Chopra-Hot-Cousin-Meera-Chopra6.jpg

Reverend, I hear Jose Feliciano swings a mean guitar.

norbertods, within 5 games of his return, I believe he's also allowed to go on a rehab assignment with the Phillies affiliate. So, that means he should be able to join the team the day he's eligible to return, fresh off 5 games with the AAA club.

Chooch's 25-game suspension and the 'silver lining'

- Cholly will probably play Chooch a lot when he comes back but he would have in April anyways.

Cholly had made it well known that he doesn't believe in resting veterans in April. One of the things I think is kind of stupid and will be really foolish this year with a couple of guys on this roster including Utley & Howard.

- Chooch doesn't hit well in April. I don't think it is a statistical fluke. It is his 2nd worst month of the year in his career after June.

He has been a hitter that almost like clockwork has produced at a higher level after the ASB. I think he will again this year too.

- Phils will miss Chooch's ability to block pitches behind the plate but Kratz has a much stronger arm & Quintero isn't a defensive slouch either. They'll miss Chooch's 'game-calling' but I feel that is a really overrated of a catcher's game especially when you have a bunch of veteran starters in the rotation.

What hurts the Phils is that they don't have a catcher who bats LH and they could sit Kratz against some RH pitchers who have decent offspeed stuff. Kratz is a dead fastball hitter who struggles with offspeed stuff.

Didn't they say that Utley has to do baseball activities everyday to keep his knees in shape. So wouldn't sitting him hurt him?

Reverend:

I think "baseball activities" means being active, taking BP, shagging balls, running, stretching, things like that. Not necessarily playing everyday to where his body wears down.

Basically, don't just sit around and let his body "heal." He has to be active, but playing everyday (especially at the level and intensity at which he plays) would be detrimental.

That is my interpretation, anyway.

Reverend - As long as Utley maintained an active daily level and did the stretching/workout routine, he is supposedly fine.

The issue (if you buy what Utley and Amaro said last year) was that Utley largely shut it down for 6 weeks the prior offseason & had real problems getting geared up again after Christmas.

The Chooch "silver lining" discussion is interesting. I guess the issue is going to be whether are his bad Aprils a result of not having enough PAs to "warm up" or is it simply because it's April. If it's the latter, fine. But, the former would just mean that he'll need a month's worth of PAs in order to heat up when he does return.

Also, as others have mentioned, I fully expect Cholly (if he is still the manager) to trot him out there a ton once he returns. Moreso than he normally would, for sure.

Lastly, I really hope Chooch doesn't rely on that Adderall to perform. It would really be a shame.

Don't forget BL Tom v has Steve stras on his list. And it isn't a good one to be one either.

7-$175 million. King Felix indeed.

Keith Law breaks down the Phillies farm system. Here is his top 10:

1. Adam Morgan, LHP (92 overall)
2. Jesse Biddle, LHP (95)
3. Roman Quinn, SS
4. Maikel Franco, 3B
5. Tommy Joseph, C
6. Ethan Martin, RHP
7. Jonathan Pettibone, RHP
8. Cody Asche, 3B
9. Kenny Giles, RHP
10. Larry Greene, 1B

And here is Keith Law's full write-up. It's a little more optimistic than I though it would be long-term and even suggests a few breaks would make this a top 20 farm system.

Farm system overview

Years of trades, surrendered draft picks and refusal to go give signing bonuses that exceed MLB's recommendations have taken their toll on a system that doesn't look like it'll spit out an average every-day position player until at least 2015 barring a big step forward from someone like Cody Asche. There are arms and there are a lot of potentially high-upside position players in the lowest levels, but they've hit a dry spell at the worst possible time for the major league club.

2013 impact

Asche could end up earning some big league time at third base if Michael Young gets hurt or the team realizes he's not very good. Darin Ruf could do a little damage as a bench/platoon guy against left-handed bats, although I don't think he's a regular. Of their top prospects, Adam Morgan is the one who might help the big club in 2013. He may be in the rotation by July if there's an injury. If you really want to speculate, Kenny Giles finished 2012 in high Class A, but he's legitimately throwing 99-100 with at least an average slider, and his delivery is under control enough now that he's throwing strikes. He's the kind of reliever who could tear through three levels and end up in the majors soon.

Sleeper

Shortstop Roman Quinn is an 80-grade runner (on the 20-80 scouting scale) who looked great at short even though he was a center fielder in high school, a rare outfield-to-infield conversion that looks like it will result in more than just a fringy defender. He has a sound approach and will drive the ball the other way, although it's going to be more doubles/triples power than homers. Third baseman Maikel Franco showed huge improvement in the second half, with a much better two-strike approach and better overall commitment to his game, hitting .346/.395/.530 after an awful first half. I like a number of guys here as candidates for big jumps in 2013, even right-hander Shane Watson, a 2012 supplemental first-rounder who just missed the team's top 10 and who could push the system into the top 20 overall.

For comparison's sake, here was Keith Law's Top 10 for Philly last year at this time:

1. Trevor May, RHP (76 overall)
2. Jesse Biddle, LHP
3. Jonathan Pettibone, RHP
4. Sebastian Valle, C
5. Freddy Galvis, SS
6. Brody Colvin, RHP
7. Larry Green, OF
8. Julio Rodriguez, RHP
9. Maikel Franco, 3B
10. Perci Garner, RHP

Because clout says I never like any contract, I felt it worth pointing out that I LOVE the contract for Felix Hernandez. Is there risk involved in locking a pitcher up for 7 years? Sure, but the guy has been as durable as they come, starting over 30 games in every season except his rookie year.

He's about to start his age 27 season, so the Mariners locked him from 27-33, or basically, the prime of his career, at a rate that FA studs aces were getting on the market 2 years ago.

It also shows the fanbase that this team isn't going to be the Pirates and sell off their big stars when they become FA eligible.

From an analytic perspective, if we assume $5.5 M per WAR, then Felix would have to accrue ~32 WAR over the life of the contract, or roughly 4.5 per year. Given that he's accrued 35.7 fWAR (28.9 bWAR) over the last 7 years, and he's about to hit his prime, I think there's a very good chance he ends up living up to the contract, and possibly exceeding it in value.

All in all, I think it's a great contract.

Also, it confirms a trend that's been taking place, and that I'm big fan of: that of teams locking up their stars through their FA years before they actually hit FA. Reds did it with Votto, Rays did it with Longo, Brewers did it with Braun, Dodgers with Kemp, Nationals with Zimmerman.

I think it's great for the game to limit the number of prime FA, and reward players earlier in their career. It's also financially smart to pay top dollar for a player when they are still producing top value, not when they are likely to start declining.

Fatalotti: The trend of locking up your own players is one that I think doesn't get discussed here enough when it comes to finances.

A lot of people think "whoa, so much revenue in the game now, the Phillies will sign a huge TV contract and be able to contend because they can spend so much money in free agency." (I'm over-simplying of course). But this misses the point. There's so much revenue in baseball that *every* team has money to spend (or, would, if they didn't have Jeffrey Loria for an owner). What that means is that teams have the money to lock up their star players. The effect of that is a lack of star players on the free agent market. The next effect is that using free agency becomes a really hard way to make your team competitive--you're overypaying, of course, but now just for mediocre talent, not top talent. So, increasingly, the pressure becomes developing your own stars to sign to big extensions. That's going to be the only way to compete.

When everyone has money, having money to spend is less important than having the players to spend it on. The Phils may have a ton of money in a few years, but if they don't have homegrown stars to spend it on, who exactly do you think they can spend it on? Kemp, Longo, Braun, Felix, etc. aren't hitting free agency. If the Phils don't have an influx of young talent in their system now, and they don't appear to, it's tough to see how they can compete in this environment over the next few years.

Legit question: Didn't the Phils "lock up" their big star, Ryan Howard, well before he could hit the market? Only time will tell how good that move was....

2.) This is a tough off-season because the Phillies made moves a lot of people were against (not the wrong moves, but just unpopular) and people are wondering where our team stands."

Had to chime in on this one. Depends on what you call wrong or right. If you think the team is better based on what they've done, or perspectively COULD have done, then fine. But IF they could have done better but didn't, that's another story. The perceived reality is (mine included) is that the Nats and Braves improved more than the Phils did, thus, widening the gap between them, at least on paper anyway.

Right now, where our team stands is right where they finished last year. it's not totally about what they spend. Forget for a monet what they spent, (not much). If you factor Hamels deal in, they're up there with LA. It's about whom they brought in. I'm ok with Adams, M. Young, & Revere. Not so much with Lannan, and even less with D. Young.

Yes, some move were unpopular, but it's very possible that based on whom was available, that some were wrong as well.

You make very good points, but everything rests on our big 3, and whether or not Howard and Utley stay healthy and produce. I wish there was some sort of fall back if those things don't happen. I think that's where Rube erred in judgement.

From what I read, the Mariners replaced 2 years remaining with this new contract. So it's really a 5/135 starting 2 years from now. Similar to Howard actually, other than King Felix is younger and is actually in the argument for best pitcher in baseball.

SLO, I would say that the difference is, the Phils locked up Ryan Howard for his age 32-36 seasons when he was 30 years old. In the instances I quoted above, you're seeing teams lock up their start players early, but through their prime years (generally in the 26-31 range), whereas the Phillies locked up a player for his decline years, and they did it 2 years before he hit the market.

That's the difference, at least to me.

Edmundo, yeah, that's right. But still, they locked him up for his 29-33 seasons, and if he's a stud over the next 2 years, it's hard to believe he would have signed that deal (5/135) when he hit the market.

DPat, so you think the Braves have improved?

If so, please provide a position-by-position review giving your opinion as to how?

Thanks in advance.

Jack, good points, by the way. I generally agree that using FA as a means to contend is going to become increasingly harder.

rolo: What if the Braves got worse, but the Phils got worse by a greater amount?

Fata, agreed. Seattle got King Felix for those 5 years at less than he could have gotten if he stayed healthy and effective. I can see the reasons that each side would do it. Obviously a huge amount more risk for the Mariners, but that's the way it is.

I love when Jack tries to play semantics with words that are clearly visible to anyone with a quarter of a working brain

Rolo~ Don't time to go position by position. They're OF and 'pen is better. Mc Cann being hurt, Jones retiring & Prado being traded doesn't help them. They have a tremendous lineup when Mc Cann is there, and if they can get into the 7th with the lead, they won't blow many.

The same statement about the'pen can be applied to the Phils, but I have some reservations about the lineup after Howard. I'd feel better about it if Revere leads off and Jimmy is moved down, but if Cholly hits Revere 8th, big mistake IMO. Gotta go.

I think the Nationals did a great job this offseason. Adding good quality at reasonable cost to an already solid young team. Having Strasburg and Harper was just amazing luck and they are smart spending money and other prospects to improve. They appear to be the class of the NL. However, like the recent Phillies teams, who knows in the playoffs.

Mets seem to have gone into rebuild mode which makes sense but seems odd with Santanna and Wright on the club.

Not thrilled with Phillies offseason but at least they did not make major resource commitments other than to Hamels. The team will have to win on pitching but the defense seems even weaker as the 'core' ages while Youngs added.

Good post at 3:46 Jack. So by using that thought process, the Phillies did the right thing by not signing a free agent who received a qualifying offer this offseason. Now they can use that first round pick to develop talent.

"rolo: What if the Braves got worse, but the Phils got worse by a greater amount?"


Jack, do you think that the Philes got worse?

DPat, no mention of rotations?

Shawn Kelley DFA's by the M's.

Worht a look?

rolo: Well, I'm not sure what I am comparing the Phillies to. If I'm comparing them to the team that had playoff designs at the beginning of last season and were playing Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence and had Joe Blanton in the rotation? Then yes, I think the team right now is worse.

Are they worse than the team that ended the season? No, they may be a little better. Revere and Michael Young help, though neither really are dramatic upgrades. Otherwise the team is the same. Utley and Howard were playing, Doc was pitching, etc. Sure, Doc may be healthier. But Chooch is missing 25 games, and someone else will be hurt to start the year, so that will wash out. Also, you're adding another year to a bunch of guys in their 30s. Jimmy Rollins, for instance, is probably more likely than not to fall short of his 4.9 WAR season last year (his best since 2008).

More importantly, they have to make up 13 games on the Braves. In my mind, the Braves probably are about the same--if they got worse, it was only very slightly. If the Phils got better, it was only very slightly. I'd be hard pressed to project, right now, the Phils finishing ahead of the Braves. It would be in the 80th-100th percentile of outcomes, I would think. It's possible, but I would have to project not likely to happen.

"More importantly, they have to make up 13 games on the Braves."


Jack, if the teams entering 2013 were identical to the 2012 teams that would be an accurate statement.

Because the teams have changed so much I'm not sure how much they have to make up.

rolo: Then what was the point of asking if the teams got better or worse, and me laying my answer out to that?

Last year, the Braves were 13 games better than the Phillies. My point was the Braves maybe got a little worse, the Phillies maybe got a little better. But enough to make up a difference of 13 games? Not without some luck.

Jack, let me address your overall point:

IF... the 2013 Phillies are healthy - Utley, Howard and Halladay all play full seasons - they will be much improved over the 2012 club.

Young at 3B should be an overall upgrade from what they ran out there for the full 2012 season (if just on stability grounds), even acknowledging Frandsen's strong (but error prone) finish. 3B gave the Phils a .272/.315/.357 line last season, and I'll take Mike Young and the over on that number, but he'll have to have a good season with the glove in order to give them a huge lift, and that will be a stretch.

Utley for a full season will be a huge upgrade from Galvis, despite Freddy's wizardry with the glove.

Revere will be a defensive upgrade from Vic and RFD, but unless a minor miracle happens will be an offensive downgrade from the .268/.332/.412 line they got in CF last season.

Rolo~ I didn't mention the rotations because the Phils have the best top 3. No question. Can the offense support them? And can our #'s 4 & 5 pitch well enough to keep us in games?

And yes, the Braves rotation as a whole may not be as good as ours, but they should have no trouble scoring. Now, I'm not saying the Braves are or ever were 13 games better than us, as last year's standings showed. But that's a lot of games to make up. It can be done, and has been done.

Can we do it? Maybe. However, a lot of things have to right (or wrong the other way) for that to happen. I just wish offensively that OF would be closer to theirs. On paper it's not. Of course lotsa things can happen, which will bring change. But I wish we were in a better situation going in. We just don't have guys to plug in if something happens. Not to beat a dead horse, but we needed help. The GM & everybody else knew it. Other than Revere replacing Vic, not much was done.

When is 13 not really 13? If the Phil's "win" 6 ½ more games in 2013, they will "win" 87 ½ games. Likewise, if the Braves "lose" 6 ½ more games in 2013, they "win" 87 ½ games.

Isn't "baseball arithmetic" odd? Convention dictates the Phils were 13 back of the Braves in 2012, but are they separated by 13, or by 6 ½? Weird.

"if Michael Young gets hurt or the team realizes he's not very good."

If anyone wants to give me odds on separate bets that Young will be among the top three Phillies in hits, RBI, batting average, AB and games played, place your bets with me.

"What if the Braves got worse, but the Phils got worse by a greater amount?"

Other than the team plane going down in a fiery wreck, please outline how or why you think this is probable (or even possible).

Will: It is because Jack is a Braves apologist. You have been here enough to know that.

Jack thinks the Braves are better than the Phillies?

Must be 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, or 2012.

Jack: "If I'm comparing them to the team that had playoff designs at the beginning of last season and were playing Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence and had Joe Blanton in the rotation? Then yes, I think the team right now is worse."

That team didn't have Utley or Howard and, if I'm not mistaken, had a worse record than the team the Phils finished the season with.

Jack: "Revere and Michael Young help, though neither really are dramatic upgrades."

Agree on Young. On Vic/Revere? Last season Vic's bWAR was 2.4. Revere's was 6.0.

Law seems to throw a "sleeper" in his top 10 instead of actually ranking the 10 best prospects. Perci Garner last year and now Giles. Both are big arms that 'throw' more than they pitch. Garner finally had his first healthy year, but showed little ability to use his fastball/curve combo as an effective starter.

Giles is your cookie cutter fireballer. Sits in the mid 90s and hits 100mph without much effort, but has poor control and no offspeed pitches. Phils should keep him in Clearwater a whole year and force as much work on his secondary stuff as possible if he has any future in the bigs.

I'm not sure if anyone has mentioned this in the past 5 months but the 2013 season largely lies on the health of Howard, Utley and Doc. All the rest is interesting but the Phillies go as those three players go.

And round and round we go.

Corner OF? They only got a .246/.315/.411 line from their RF in 2012, even with Pence, and frankly, can we expect Delmon Young to top that .726 OPS? Well, he's capable of it, having done it in 4 of his 7 seasons, but he's no lock. And then there's his defense.... Personally, I would prefer they give Brown a shot if RF and use Young elsewhere, but that precludes giving Ruf a shot, which I think they ought to do given his age. That is, he's at the age where they need to find out if he's the real deal - fish or cut bait. And can Ruf possibly be a worse defender than DYoung? Nixberry I view strictly as platoon/bench/roleplayers and not everyday guys.

Giles has about as much control as Aumont...and less pure stuff unfortunately.

Cont'd:

All that stated, whoever is in LF is going to have a hard time topping the .290/.340/.420 line they got out there.

Overall, the 2012 OF put up a .268/.329/.415 line with 52 HR and 216 RBI in 2082 PA. It will be interesting to see whether the 2013 OF can top that.

I don't expect the same production from the cathing position.

they two biggest keys will be Howard and Halladay and how they rebound. If they do, this team is not 13 games worse than the Braves, and could top them if they beat them head-to-head.

but there are still a lot of "IFs"...

OK, the above two posts were originally part of the 7:43 response to Jack, but they got lost in cyberspace.

It seems since the comcast folks took over this kind of garbage happens more all the time.

clout: You're looking something up wrong on Revere.

That kind of thing happened all the time even before Comcast...especially during game threads back in the day.

2012 bWAR:

Revere: 2.4
Vic: 1.1

lore, I looked and they had identical 2.4 bWAR - for whatever it's good for.

Well - I thought I'd check in to BLer to see if anything's changed.

Imagine my surprise to read the thread and find Jack fawning over the Braves and trashing the Phils.

Shocking!

FWIW, fangraphs had Revere at 3.4 fWAR in 2012 and vic at 3.3 fWAR.

Has anyone mentioned that the team's chances this year probably depend on the health of Howard, Doc, and Utley?

Not to pile on a harmless error in looking stuff up - we all do it - but can't help but to call out clout for being so out of touch with WAR that he'd think 6.0 was a believable number for a 89 OPS+ OFer.

I was thinking "Damn, his UZR must have been more ridiculous than I remembered.

rolo: Kelley's a fastball/slider guy, neither pitch is great, but he's got good command and can get guys out with them. Has a bit of a longball problem considering he pitches half the time at Safeco (1.3 HR/9).

He's your basic off-the-shelf, fungible RH middle reliever.

lorecore: You're right. Not sure where that came from. The correct numbers are 2.4 bWAR for Revere and 1.1 for Vic.

If those numbers hold, I'd say that's a clear upgrade.

Am I reading b-r.com wrong?

To me it looks like Vic had a 1.3 bWAR in Philly and a 1.1 bWAR in LA.

I'll make one comment about the Felix Hernandez extension:

I'd wager the Phillies save at least $20MM by locking Hamels up during the season as opposed to letting him test the market.

rolo: agreed. The Grienke deal also suggests the Phils saved a good amount of $$.

Hi everyone. I visit this site everyday but rarely post anything. I just wanted to see if anyone is interested in splitting a 14 game Sunday plan with me. I have had them since 2003, last year of the vet.

My seats are great. Section 103 Row 4, Seats 5 and 6. We can split it - 7 games each. The total cost is $949.00 so the cost is $474.50 each. My invoice is due Feb 14th. Anyone interested please email me at michael.battista@yahoo.com

Thank you

Good seats. I'm anti Sunday plan tho, I've been melted into a Vet seat on a summer afternoon one too many times.

rolo: I guess my problem with your analysis just comes down to the fact that you assume all positives and no negatives.

Of course if Utley, Howard, and Halladay are all healthy and productive and if Michael Young plays well and if no one else plays badly or gets hurt, the Phils will be much improved.

The difference between me and you is that I say the chances of that happening are small and adjust accordingly. For instance, I bet the chances are greater than 50% that one of Hamels, Halladay, or Lee will miss time on the DL this season. What do you think? I also think its very unlikely that Ruiz and Rollins produce as much as they did last season. What do you think?

So yes, some upgrades will happen. But I think some things will go wrong too. And if you're an 81 win team, you need more to go right than wrong to become a playoff team. Hopefully that happens, but I don't see it right now.

rolo: I apologize. I just saw your two posts where you do acknowledge that there are some areas where the Phils may not be improved and might go backwards.

I mean, look, generally of course I agree that there's a lot of "ifs" and sure, if the "ifs" break right, this is a playoff team. But 20-25 teams can say that right now. Last year a team like the Orioles had everything break right and made the playoffs. That Orioles team isn't any better than the Phillies.

But I just can't sit here and project everything to go right, if I'm being objective. As a fan, I want it to. But I also know that, if I'm being honest, do I really think one of the oldest teams in baseball is suddenly going to have a magical year in terms of health and breakout performances and career years? No. I don't. Maybe Revere and Brown and Ruf all play great, and maybe Bastardo and Aumont go lights out in the pen, and maybe they rejuvenate the old guys. But no, I can't bet on that.

Am I wrong in saying that Felix has two years left on his current deal? Doesn't look like a discount for the early extension if so...

Phils picked up SS Matt Tolbert in a milb deal. He has no bat, much like yunesky, but he at least can field the position. Obviously the completely useless betancourt gets a st invite but the guy with at least a shred of possible value does not.

Jack, if everything goes "right" for the Phillies, they are actually good enough to win the division.

Yes, they are.

Now, mind you, "everything" means exactly that:

Rollins getting OB at a .330 clip and SLG .425+.
Young rebounding to an OPS of about .775.
Utley playing as well as he did last season but for 140 games.
Howard playing 140+ games and rebounding to an OPS around .875.
Chooch OPS'ing about .790 (his '09-'11 avg).

The OF providing some semblance of production. Personally, I think they're only chance of this happening is if Ruf is 'for real' and puts up the kind of numbers the optimists think are possible. (Oh, they'll also need Brown to win the RF job and DYoung to ride the pine - but that's just my opinion.)

But most importantly: pitching. The rotation needs a big rebound from Halladay, they need Hamels and Lee to have seasons like they did in 2012, KK needs to prove he belongs and Lannan needs to prove he can pitch 180 innings like he's done against everyone else but the Phils (3.80 ERA).

As for the bullpen, Pap needs to be Pap, Adams needs to be healthy, Bastardo needs to rebound to a form somewhere in between his '11 and '12 seasons, Durbin needs to be relegated to 7th man, and some of the Young power arms need to emerge as legitimate shutdown guys in the 7th inning.

Now, if "everything" above does happen they'll challenge the Nats for the division.

However, you are correct in that it's unlikely. That's why I think we're looking at a challenge to the Braves for a WC spot, and they can possibly make it if they beat them head-to-head.

"Am I wrong in saying that Felix has two years left on his current deal? Doesn't look like a discount for the early extension if so..."


Sophist, correct, he's under contract through 2014.

But, if he stays healthy he would have been an FA at the same age as Hamels, going into his age 29 season.

What do you think he gets 2 years from now if there's a bidding war?

lorecore - Yeah. I imagine Betancourt is probably the guy who has the front-runner spot right now coming into for the utility infield roster spot.

Amaro hasn't said much about Galvis but I wouldn't be surprised if Amaro has him slated to start the season at SS in Lehigh.

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies/190070881.html

Alot of spring training games on TV although only 2 on national TV (ESPN).

Sophist, I don't think there's any way that the Mariners could have gotten Felix at 5/135 2 years from now. They didn't get a super discount, but they guaranteed that they'll have him during that 5 year period at a current market rate. In 2 years, the rate could be higher, and he could've been looking for a 7 year deal that STARTS at age 29, as opposed to the one that starts at age 27 that the Mariners currently inked.

Fatti, if Herenandez had two more seasons under his belt, and turned FA at teh same age as Hamels, I could see 6 - 7 yrs at 160 - 180.

The Mariners probably saved 30 - 50 million by doing it now.

rolo, if we make a couple assumptions, and compares the two likely outcomes, I think you're pretty spot on with the 30 number.

If we assume a 7% annual rate of return, and we structure the two deals accordingly:

Actual deal he's under: $25 M per year for the next 7 years, the present value of that deal is roughly $144 M.

If we assume he hit the market in 2 years, and we give him a bump from the $25 M AAV he's signed for now to a mere $27 M AAV(I think it would be closer to $30, to be honest), for 7 years, the present value of that deal would be $174 M.

So, I think you're right. I think they saved about $30 M. Now, this doesn't assume what they do with him in those final 2 years after this current deal is up. If he's slowed down by then, and they lock him up for $20 M a year during those two years, then the savings drop to only ~$7 M.

No matter how you slice it, they saved some present dollars by inking this deal.

By the way, in the 2nd deal, I was taking into account that the Mariners would have been paying Hernandez $19.5 this year and $20 the following year, before he hit FA.

Fatti, agree.

The onl caveat I'd toss out there is if he has two more seasons like '09 - '10, or something close to it.

If that were the case and he became an FA, I think you're right that his AAV would approach 30MM, probably something like 6/180 or, if he insisted on 7 years, maybe 7/200.

If he hit FA in 2 years, he probably would have gotten the richest contract for a pitcher ever.

***To me it looks like Vic had a 1.3 bWAR in Philly and a 1.1 bWAR in LA.***

No, you're right...I messed up.

Now if Felix goes and tears his rotator cuff this summer, they look pretty stupid. If not, its a solid trade. Both sides gave up something in this one.

If he hit FA in 2 years, he probably would have gotten the richest contract for a pitcher ever.

Posted by: rolo | Friday, February 08, 2013 at 09:30 AM

As it stands, he'll have to settle for getting the richest contract ever given to a pitcher today. :)

Given the massive inflation we've seen in contracts just this year with the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the new TV deals...I'd imagine in 2 years, this deal would look pretty good.

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