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Saturday, February 23, 2013

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He's Darin ruf before his age 25 explosion.

I've never heard of Charles and cannot find him on any prospect list.

He was a 20th round draft pick and has never played higher than low A ball, posting a career slash line of .239/.358/.482. He's 22 and about 2 levels below where he should be.

He looks like organizational filler.

Schwimer will be a dominant reliever for the next decade.

And in another big, but unnoticed move:

Phillies released INF Andres Blanco.

The Blanco move presumably clears the way for Yuni in Lehigh Valley.

Huh? He's very different than Ruf. Ruf hit for a high average with a fairly low strikeout rate in the minors. This guy is much more of a 3-outcomes player.

One last thought: Phils sign Delmon Young. Phils trade Schwimer.

Coincidence?

ramsey: lorecore is being sarcastic.

Clout, you might be onto something... Next we'll see if Mike Lieberthal is removed from the Wall of Fame.

This guy had trade on him sice that injury he said she said episode.

Another dazzling r00b trade. It's only a matter of time before he manages to deal a real live Major Leaguer for a bona fide rotting corpse ... not that the Phillies' crack three monkeys style medical staff can tell the difference. But w/ Rosenberg pitching so well who needs to see Schwimer, anyway?

GTown: Rosenberg's next.

Phils are winless.
Schwimmer is dumped.
Season = Over!

Schwimer had some chance of being a useful reliever. This looks like he was dumped plain and simple.

No one is gonna miss this guy.

Schwimmer had no chance of sticking with the big club. Dumped a AAAA reliever for a young kid with pop. Schwim wore out his welcome.

I've no problem with this move. He wasn't gonna pitch fir the big-league club. This one falls under the "so what, who cares category, as does the release of Blanco.

I'm glad Swimmer is gone.

I always hated trading away something for nothing which is exactly what this deal is.

Stutes better be healthy because the RHP reliever organizational depth chart is very slim again beyond him. Next year on it is Rosenberg.

Went to the game today was nice to finally see a game again. Utley and Hamels looked in good form and Revere is damn fast. I'm guessing he'll get the whole spring to see what he can do as a leadoff man. If Ruf earns a spot the defense on that side of the field seems scary with him and Michael Young.

Curious, are the Phillies so overburdened with serviceable relief pitchers? Not sure a team should ever give up a 27 year old who throws heat for a never was and never will be prospect.

"Curious, are the Phillies so overburdened with serviceable relief pitchers?"

No. As evidenced by the simple fact that the Phils currently have Diekman, Rosenberg, Robles, and Savery are on the 40-man roster and represent 4 out of the 12 relievers on it.

Those 4 guys stink and have no business pitching any kind of meaningful number of innings for a playoff contender.

Art Charles has one interesting statistical "season". His 2012 season with the Blue Jays rookie team, he had a BB% of 26.8, a K% of 26.8 and an ISO of .341.

To echoes ramsey's statement from earlier, that has 3-outcomes player written all over it.

"I always hated trading away something for nothing"

I wouldn't be surprised if I said that exact same thing when they dealt Valdez for Horst. Obviously didn't think Valdez was anything much, but being a good defender at SS was still something, while Horst looked like a nothing.

Valdez move was to free up a couple bucks, Schwimer move is a roster math. Hopefully they return similar unexpected value.

Seems very much that they dumped Schwimer because of his mouth. The kid may or may not have had a legitimate beef, but in Rube's world, nobody questions the boss.

We don't know if Rube had a talk with the kid. If he tried to work out their disagreements. But I would hope he did. Because this looks like no more than a straight dump. They'd have been better off getting their soda machine stocked for three years ala Billy Beane.

MG- I don't even think what you are saying about Revere is 'negative.' Has nothing to do with that. It's misinformed. Revere has 1100 MLB innings and over 300 MiL games in centerfield. You are literally the only person on the planet that does not think that's enough data to make a definitive judgment on his defensive acumen at that position.

Are you trying to say that you'll think he'll get hurt too much to be a full time starter? That his legs will wear down? Those are the only two things you could be trying to say that make sense. Because Revere has played the position extensively in his major and minor league career and has proven that he is, at the very least, well above average at the position.

random question: A leadoff triple scores on average 49.8% of the time with 0 out, 46.6% of the time with 1 out, and 20.8% of the time with 2 outs.

Since those numbers add up to at least 100% - then is a leadoff triple worth a full run even though its not a guaranteed run?

How is it still a "leadoff" triple with 1 or 2 outs?

I'm pasting this with the typo (41-year-old) included:

The Pirates have agreed to terms with RHP Jose Contreras on a minor league contract with an invite to spring training. He is expected to report tomorrow (Sunday).

Contreras is recovering from elbow surgery and will be rehabbing during major league spring training

The 41-year-old Cuban native has posted a 78-67 record in 292 career games (175 starts) in the Major Leagues with the Yankees (2003-04), White Sox (2004-09), Rockies (2009) and Phillies (2010-12).

Fatalotti: Which outcome do you think is most likely?

lorecore: Would you say Horst was considered about the same quality prospect as Charles is?

Fatal: i meant, a batter hits a leadoff triple, and then the subsequent batters drive him in at those %.

i should clarify: A runner on 3rd with 0 outs. Doesn't matter if he how he got there.

Well at least no one will misspell schwimer anymore. At least on this blog, hopefully.

Oy vey. Phillies owners are antisemites because they aren't owned or operated by semites as the Eagles, Sixers and Flyers are.

clout: back in 2012, yes I probably would have. I thought Horst was a org filler reliever.

clout, the outcome where he never sniffs a ML roster.

I'll bet a dollar to a deutshe mark that Ruben can happily ride the Horst trade on BL until his contract expires in 2015.

lorecore, if I read you right, the equation would be
.498 +
(.466 * (1 - .498)) +
(.208 * 1 - (.498 + (.466 * (1 - .498))))
or approximately 78% if my mental math is right.

lorecore: Horst was actually viewed by some scouting services as a prospect. Sickels identified him as a potential sleeper as far back as 2009. BA never had him in their top 30 Reds prospects, but that's because his fastball didn't break 90.

He was a mediocre prospect, for sure, but he was considered a prospect. Charles isn't, at least not anywhere I can find.

Seriously everyone, have fun with this:

http://mlb.mlb.com/search/media.jsp?mlbtax_key=classic

Fatalotti: I concur.

Did Mantle have any knees left when he hit this homerun?

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=25585737&c_id=mlb

Most miraculous part of this David Cone perfect game? That Knoblauch was able to make a clean throw to 1B to record the 23rd out.

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=25539469&c_id=mlb

edmundo: care to explain the logic? I don't follow.

clout: sounds about right - I was pretty ignorant about Horst when he was acquired.

lorecore, the probability that the leadoff triple scores at all can't be greater than 1.

You can't just add the probabilities together. Assuming they are all independent events, you have to add the probability of the run scoring with 0 outs (.498) to the probability of the run scoring with 1 out (.466), but you have to multiply that .466 factor by the probability that you didn't score with 0 outs (1-.498). And so on.

You can arrive at the same answer by subtracting all the probabilities from 1, multiplying them altogether (to get 21.2%), then subtracting that from 1 to get 78.8%. This is ostensibly asking what the probability is that he doesn't score, and, obviously the probability that he doesn't score plus the probability that he does score have to add up to one.

Iceman: Using your own criteria, here are Revere's rank among CFs who have played at least 1000 innings since 2010 (among 40 players):

UZR/150: 9.2 (t-10th, 75th percentile)
RZR: .937 (t-8th, 80th percentile)
DRS (Defensive Run Saved): -4 (t-25, 38th percentile)
FSR (Fan Scouting Report for what it is worth): -3.0 (21, 48th percentile)
Fielding Pct: .980 (40th, 0 percentile)

Like I said, the numbers on Revere are mixed in CF sine 2010 and it is hard to draw conclusions since he has logged only 1100 IP with most of those coming in '11.

lore, with no outs, the runner scores .498 times. So there are .502 left for one out at bats, of which .466 scores. Subtracting (.466 * . 502) from .502 gives you approximately .270 of the the occurrences left. Only .208 of those score, approx. 5% of the original total.

lorecore - How is Schwimer a roster move? He isn't even on the 40-man roster currently.

This was a straight up dump because of Schwimer's odd behavior last year regarding his injury status, his threatening to file an injunction against the team including again this offseason, and running his mouth on his Twitter account about moves the Phils were going to make before they were official.

For an a supposedly intelligent guy, Schwimer acted like a fool if they thought that his employer was going to look fondly upon him after running his mouth, threatening them with legal action, and then leak things before they were 100% official.

Not like Schwimer has shown all that much at the MLB level and even if the Phils do get hit with there share of injuries again in the pen he likely would have only seen 20-25 IP max.

That's still 20-25 IP that a guy like Rosenberg or Savery (two clearly below average relievers) would see. That's all.

Plus the Phils didn't get anything in return here that might help them down the road either.

Horst had at least already cracked the MLB roster & was a LH reliever for a system that had almost no LH relief depth at AA and above to start the year last year.

MG, that 20 - 25 ip can sometimes be the difference between making the playoffs.

This is, even with foresight, one of th eworst trades I've seen the Phillies (or any org) make.

POS.

RAJ should be ashamed of himself.

I usually don't question his competence, but this makes me question his mental capacity.

Insane. Dopey. Goofy. Deranged. Born of anger not rational thought.

rolo - Yup. This is going to be a team I bet that scrap, fights, and claws its way into the playoffs (if they make it) by the narrowest of margins this year.

Why I hope Galvis makes the team over a bum like Betancourt. Galvis is a poor hitter but he can help this team as a late innings defensive placement & a guy who should start at 2B/SS vs LHP to spell Utley and JRoll.

Betancourt brings nothing to the table at this point. He's horrendous defensively anywhere in the INF, a below-average base-runner, and a hacking machine who offensive numbers have dipped the past 2 seasons (and 3 of the last 4) to well below-average.

If Betancourt gets added to the 40-man roster and makes the roster over Galvis, then yeah I think Amaro will have made a real bone-headed decision.

I hope today's game is not the forward to the saga of 2013 Phillies baseball.
But poor defense , mediocre offense, and middle relief pitching problems are all themes we saw last year, and have expressed concern over this off season.
That aside, it sure was good to see some baseball again.

One Grapefruit league game and already the sky is falling? Gotta love BL!

Must win tomorrow?

Did anyone have Schwimer as an option to make the Opening Day roster?

Must wins start April 1.

Dragon, IDGAS about the game.

The trade, OTOH, was seemingly made without any regard to getting a fair return for Schwimer.

Now, this is not to say that Schwimer is any great shakes, a AAAA pitcher IMHO, but they should have gotten a AAAA talent back.

This guy Art Charles will be lucky if he ever sniffs AAA, much less MLB.

MG- the numbers are not mixed no matter what 'fan scouting reports' say. The numbers you gave are not mixed.

Real scouting reports say the same things I'm saying and the same thing the stats say. We'll see who's right at year's end. Just please don't continue saying "there isn't enough data available."

Scwimer move makes no sense other than as a 'message.' Guy has the arm to pitch at the big league level and the guy coming back looks like he has zero potential to help the big club. Phils can employ and do business with whomever they want to but, they insult your intelligence when they claim this was a baseball move.

Fatal/edmundo: thanks, couldnt wrap my head around last nite

Actually Iceman, I think the numbers MG posted are cause for a bit of concern. You would hope, given his offensive limitations, that he'd rank top 3 at least in a couple of the categories, but the fact that his highest ranking is 8th, makes it fair to wonder how "elite" is CF defense will be.

He's clearly above average in CF based on those numbers, but since most of his value is tied up in his defense, the question is will we have a top 3, elite defensive CF who is very valuable despite his bat, or simply a good defensive CF who isn't all that valuable since he might not add much more at the plate.

I think it's a fair question given those numbers.

Aren't at least a few of the stats MG cited counting stats? How is Revere going to have better numbers than a full-time CF, unless MG normalized the number of innings to make them comparable?

TPOT, good point, but I think DRS is the only tru counting stat, and it's negative, so it's not like it's going in the right direction. :)

Stutes better be healthy because the RHP reliever organizational depth chart is very slim again beyond him. Next year on it is Rosenberg.
Posted by: MG | Saturday, February 23, 2013 at 07:19 PM

This isn't exactly true. RH reliever depth: Rosenberg, Stutes, Justin Friend, Kyle Simon, JC Ramirez, Julio Rodriguez and possibly Zach Miner. There are also guys like Ethan Martin (hopefully not a reliever) and Ken Giles (should start the year in AA). I don't think the depth is as bad as you portray it.

Also just a thought, if Schwim was traded due to the grievance, wouldn't he have been traded sooner? Perhaps during the offseason?

Fat: DRS is the only semi-legit stat MG cited that casts doubt on Revere as an above-average defensive CF (I think we can safely disregard fielding pct and fan ratings), but A) his number of innings logged is far below the threshold for drawing meaningful comparisons for that stat (3+ full seasons) and B) it is a stat totally dependent on the number of chances a player has, yet MG was comparing him to other players with 2600+ more innings than Revere.

Even the UZR/150 and RZR stats are generally unreliable (even for defensive stats) with under 3000 innnings, so I don't think the available stats on Revere are of much use at all, actually. His is a clear wait-and-see case...

TPOT, yep, which was exactly MG's point (if I'm reading him correctly), that we just don't know exactly what kind of defender Revere will be as a full time CF. My guess is he'll be an above average defender, but to automatically label him as elite: I don't know that I'm ready to say that yet.

"RH reliever depth: Rosenberg, Stutes, Justin Friend, Kyle Simon, JC Ramirez, Julio Rodriguez and possibly Zach Miner."

Stutes and Simon are the only names in this list that are legit MLB arms. Simon is likely only going to start the year at AA.

Rosenberg throws hard and that is about it. Friend is a non-prospect/organizational filler. Ditto JC Ramirez at this point. Miner too.

Martin is a starter and will remain so at Reading to begin the year. I haven't seen what the Phils are planning to do with J. Rodriquez but he had a really disappointing year last year struggling badly with his command most of the year.

Fat - Thank you. That is exactly what I was saying. You need a larger sample size to see what kind of CF Revere would be like.

If Revere does start 140-145 G in CF this year, the Phils should have a much better idea of his range in CF and how his arm plays there.

Issue with Revere is whether he is good/very good (70-80th percentile among CF) or elite (90th percentile or better).

It is just really tough to tease out an answer to that question given his 1100 IP in CF and the current limitations of defensive metrics.

Right MG, and if he's simply a good defender in CF, he's not quite that valuable unless his bat improves dramatically.

The kid definitely has amazing speed. It'll be fun to watch him fly in CF this year.

Fata/MG: this will be my last post on this. We simply disagree. He has logged over 2500 innings at the major and minor league levels in CF. There are dozens of scouting reports to go along with defensive stats that are notoriously unreliable to begin with, but most of which are pointing to Revere being a great CF, bordering on excellent.

If you disagree, then we'll just see how it plays out. Perhaps I'm wrong here.

Can this game today be seen on TV?

I don't think I've been more nervous about watching a player in spring training than I am with Halladay today.

A cautionary tale on relying too much on minor league scouting reports and early career reputation: Yuniesky Betancourt was once considered a top-flight defender and a top defensive prospect.

Hasn't quite worked out that way. We definitely need to wait and see until he's handed a full-time CF job. No one is wrong here. We just don't know enough.

"RH reliever depth: Rosenberg, Stutes, Justin Friend, Kyle Simon, JC Ramirez, Julio Rodriguez and possibly Zach Miner. There are also guys like Ethan Martin (hopefully not a reliever) and Ken Giles (should start the year in AA). I don't think the depth is as bad as you portray it."

And, here I was worried about the bullpen depth. Silly me.

Schwimer was a somewhat decent middle reliever the last couple months last year.

Kinda an odd trade all things considered.

I guess having "some guys" in your organization counts as depth.

Some Guy would likely be a better option than Rosenberg or Ramirez...both are terrible.

If only we had David Herndon

Of course losing Schwimer is a moot point if Aumont and DeFratus live up to their potential.

"Of course losing Schwimer is a moot point if Aumont and DeFratus live up to their potential."

Aumont walked 6.9 batters per 9 innings and had a 1.534 WHIP at AAA last year. If the Phillies are counting on him to live up to his potential, and to do so in 2013, they're living in la-la land.

For that matter, even DeFratus has struggled to throw strikes at the major league level to this point.

Losing Schwimer doesnt particularly concern me...trading him for a complete non-prospect 1B who spent 3 years in Rookie Ball does. It simply points to Rube being an idiot.

Seriously, 3 seasons of Rookie Ball and he's entering his Age 22 season?

"Losing Schwimer doesnt particularly concern me...trading him for a complete non-prospect 1B who spent 3 years in Rookie Ball does."

The trade was about club-house chemistry. Delmon Young was apparently threatening to sue the Phillies for creating a hostile work environment for anti-semites.

A member of the tribe traded?

I'm thinking some kind of conspiracy is the only possible explanation.

http://network.yardbarker.com/mlb/article_external/jeffrey_lorias_letter_to_marlins_fans_proves_he_doesnt_get_it/12981010

Jeffrey Loria took a full-page ad to explain his moves in the off-season. The gist of it was basically "Fvck off" to Marlins fans.

The linked deadspin article is also crazy...the city of Miami will end up paying $1.2 Billion in total payments on an initial loan of $91 million. Did they just hit up a payday loan place for that interest rate? There are loansharks that give better APRs than that.

bap, I would not be surprised if DeFratus tuens out to be better than Aumont.


This Schwimer trades pisses me off. It reeks of stupidity - abject stupidity.

Maybe they don't like Schwimer, his personality, whatever. That's fine, and organizations are entitled to make moves if they think someone isn't a good fit in their organization for that reason.

But... that is no excuse for making a sh8tty trade. It was a crap trade, andthey got someone who's as likely to make an impact at teh MLB level as am I.

List of Phils prospects who have a better chance to make MLB impact than Art Charles:

VIRTUALLY ALL OF THEM.

I lost a lot of respect for RAJ and the FO because of this. That is no way to improve your team of it's chances in the future.

5-year olds have temper tantrums.

MLB GM's should not.

I imagine that Art Charles will start the year in Lakewood.

Trade Art Charles to another MLB franchise for a couple bags of balls that can be used at the 'Zen for batting practice.

That's the best hope this trade has of contribution at the MLB level.

Lloyd Christmas >>>>> RAJ

Why isn't the game on TCN. Anyone else with this problem?

The game's only on the radio today, said the reporters. 1210 AM if you are in the area.

LA said Halladay's pitches look crisp, although he's only faced a few batters.

And Ryan Howard just hit a double off the wall.

Let this thread stand as an example for the next time someone rolls out the tired "front office apologist' line on rolo. He's been driven to the edge by the dumping of Michael Schwimer.

Iceman, stupid IS.

Period.

Iceman, let me expand on that.

Stupid IS, whether it's trading Cliff Lee to Seattle or Michael Schwimer to Totonto.

Galvis RBI double

"I don't think there's anything wrong with Roy Halladay right now; it's just a question of how he feels tomorrow." Larry Anderson

Too bad we can't see it, but I'm sure there will be video after the game, right?

Well, VMart thinks Halladay is OK!

Ah, that looks more like the Roy Halladay I remember from last year.

Season over.

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