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Thursday, February 14, 2013


Money being no object, Upton or Bourn would have been better, obviously. But in the real world Revere will out perform his current contract. I just wish his acquisition had freed up room for Nick Swisher instead of Delmon Young.

Bourn is massively overrated...and is being paid as such...enjoy him, Cleveland.

Also, from the last thread:

From Age 36 on, Johnson went 143-78 with a 137 ERA+.

He also won 3 CY and finished 2nd one other time.

Give me Revere than a diva with an ego.

I have little doubt that Revere will be the better player from 2013-2017 than Bourn. As mentioned in the header, Revere is already better than Bourn was at the same age.

I think Revere will tear it up here.. He will catch everything in his range which is huge.. and he will be a monster on the basepaths.. Hit it on the ground - get on base - steal - Repeat.

Mentioning the fact that we traded Worley and May in passing doesn't seem to adequately account for that part of the cost.

Surely, Revere will outperform what he's being paid. He's pre-arbitration. Unless you are a replacement level player, all pre-arb players outperform what they are making.

But the analysis HAS to include that we gave up another player who was also pre-arb and was also going to outperform his contract, along with a pitching prospect who not too long ago, was the #1 pitcher in our system.

I'm not up for doing this review, but throwing them out there in passing at the end of the thread does a disservice to your analysis.

Bourn was a 6.0 WAR player last year. Sure, much of that was derived from his defense, but he may be the best defensive CF in baseball, and that's worth something.

I hope Revere continues moving forward. I'm not optimistic that we'll see much improvement in his slugging, but his minor league numbers suggest he could grow his OBP.

The big problem is that without more power, pitchers won't be afraid to challenge him and that could make it tough to find walks.

OPS+ through Age 24:

Michael Bourn: 79
Ben Revere: 79

Big thing Revere should learn from Bourn:

Bourn Pitches/PA: 4.0
Revere Pitches/PA : 3.5

A half a pitch per PA really adds up when your value is to be a table setter type of hitter, getting well over 600 PA a season.

NEPP: Revere did it in 1000 PA, Bourn did it less than 200 PA. Once Bourn got the chance to play, he put up a 57 OPS+. Revere's proven he can play already without having to suffer through a 57 OPS+ season.

I'd love to see Revere get his SB5 above 80% this season. He'll have value on this team (with its likely deficit of power) if he's maintaining anything above 70%, but I'd really like to see him in the 80-85% to really get surplus value.

I'll be excited to see Revere develop. It'll be nice to see a guy out there entering his prime rather than proceeding out of it (not a knock on current guys whom I'm still a huge fan of - just a statement of reality).

Losing Worley will be a bit of a hit, but I don't think he's going to get much better than we've already seen. You look at his stuff - there's nothing there that overwhelms. Trevor May? Who knows. Prospects are a crapshoot.

To be fair, Revere did have a 87.1% SB rate, so he can absolutely do it.

To me it boils down to the young pitching that is coming through the system. Assuming someone from the group of Jesse Biddle, Adam Morgan, Jon Pettibone and Ethan Martin steps up and can equal Vance Worley, this was a no brainer. I like the chances that one of those guys can become a legit 3/4 starter so I am happy we have a starting CF locked up for 4 years at a very reasonable rate.

Ryan Howard just said that his left leg feels "phenomenal" and that his Achilles is "not even a second thought in my mind".

Neither Revere nor Bourn would make a big difference. This question misses the point entirely. The Phils were a .500 team last year finishing 17 games behind the Nationals. They needed a couple impact moves and it didn't happen. Salary room could have been cleared by trading Halladay or Lee. Instead, RAJ sat on his hands. You can always rationalize this or that minor move at the cost of losing sight of the big picture. It will be interesting to see if Cholly bats Revere leadoff where his speed and ability to get on base can be a plus. Or will he knuckle under again to the demands of a fast declining Jimmy Rollins?

Rollins OPS+ (OPS)
2010: 85 (.694)
2011: 101 (.736)
2012: 98 (.743)

Define "fast declining"

If UC bats Revere leadoff and his OBP doesn't get above .320, no one can complain about Rollins hitting leadoff ever again.

I like Revere just as much as the next guy, but there's no way he should be hitting leadoff yet. Until he can prove that he can get on base more than he has in the past, his value is terrible out of the leadoff position. He has no power and hasn't shown to have gap power yet. He can develop those but sticking him in the leadoff position right now will not help him to become that type of player.

Phils traded from "strength" to fill a weakness. The Phils minor league system has more pitching prospects than position players and a couple of major league ready back end starters similar to Worley.

Besides, it's rarely a bad idea to trade a prospect for a ML player.

Rollins wRC+ by year:

2004: 105
2005: 97
2006: 103
2007: 119
2008: 104
2009: 85
2010: 88
2011: 103
2012: 101

Strip out those obviously injury-plagued seasons, and Jimmy Rollins has been remarkably consistent offensively.

I see a fast decline there...

Take a look at FA. Starting CF's were going for +$10M a year, and 4th starters were going for $5-7M. If you can throw in a flaky pitching prospect like May to even the deal, then it's a no brainer to me.

Curious to see how good of a bunter Revere is and if it is something he can do consistently for base hits.

Anyone know if Infield Hits include Bunt hits?

Revere had 9 bunt hits and 32 infield hits last year, both were top 5 in the league.

MG: I agree... that will be something to see. Bunting as a strategic play makes me pull my hair out... but bunting for base hits is something more players like Revere should do more often.

As the team looks on paper and before the first pitch is thrown in anger, the Phils will be in a lot of low scoring games this year. It also seems like they'll be doing a couple of defensive substitutions when they have a lead late in the game. I'm hoping to be pleasantly surprised by Michael Young's defense, but doubt that I will be. My question is who will be playing third when the game is on the line? I envision a few games slipping away if it's him.

The league's Bunt for Hit Average was .243, and the league had a .297 BABIP.

Revere had a .325 BABIP and a .344 Bunt for Hit Average.

Just like SB/CS have a threshold, i'm sure bunting for a hit does as well. My hypothetical would be that as long as Bunt for Hit Avg > BABIP, than the player is doing the right thing - and the amount that Bunt for Hit AVG exceeds BABIP would suggest how often a player should be bunting.

Curious to see what type of hitter Revere is too.

Some of the scouting reports stuff I have seen is that he struggles with stuff in the inner part of the plate especially up in the zone. His poor numbers against cutters confirm that.

Doesn't run many deep counts at all either. Hardly has that many ABs that are past 3 pitches.

Very curious to see how NL teams who really haven't seen him before approach him especially on the first pitch this year early.

Do they try to get ahead in the count with a first-pitch, 4-seam fastball or do they give him something offspeed hoping that he swings & chases it for a strike/foul/soft grounder to the right-side?

All this worry about 3B defense makes me chuckle.

Just go look at the 3B defense of last year's playoff teams.

When Michael Young wins the triple crown, maybe I'll give him a pass on his defense.

I was glad to see that Revere doesn't really have strong splits either vs LH/RH.

I didn't look up their record vs LHP starters last year but I bet it was well under .500.

JRoll really doesn't hit LHP that well anymore with real struggles 3 of the past 4 years. Utley has struggled the past 2 years and really seems to struggle on the inner half of the plate vs LHP at this point in his career. Howard really struggles vs LHP. Brown has shown he hit MLB LHP worth a lick and any opposing LHP pitcher should challenge him with a 4-seam fastball almost every time on the first pitch on the inner part of the plate.

Phils will have a few guys in the lineup who do hit LHP. Even with M. Young's crummy numbers last year, he still hit LHP well and has hit very well against it the past few years. D. Young does hit LHP well and so does Mayberry. Both guys though are known fastball hitters who struggle offspeed stuff. D. Young is basically a hacker who will chase most stuff.

Given that, I figure the Phils are once again going to struggle vs LHP starters especially those who rely more upon offspeed stuff & have at least 2 solid offspeed pitches. Made good money on that last year and will look to do the same again this year.

lorecore: Right... because Cabrera was the only bad defender at 3B in the playoffs last year.

Ben will do just fine. Hell maybe he will thrive in this city and team. Like right where team is. Sure they have the question marks, but with everyone counting them out. They seem like they have a little chip on them and don't count them out. I know I won't.

Nobody's going to be chuckling if he loses games for the Phils because of his defense.

***When Michael Young wins the triple crown, maybe I'll give him a pass on his defense.

Posted by: lorecore | Thursday, February 14, 2013 at 12:32 PM


I dont see him having major issues in the Derby or Preakness but that long track at Belmont might be his achilles heel.

limoguy: Well, let's spend every waking hour worried about a position that will see 2 to 3 chances a game. That's productive.

I do want to see Brown start everyday early but I understand why Cholly will have strong thoughts on benching him.

Brown's numbers vs LHP (Small sample size alert)

.208/.284/.302 (.586 OPS) with just 1 HR and 7 XBHs in 96 ABs

Numbers last year when he was an everyday regular the final 2 months weren't much of an improvement:

.196/.288/.333 (.621 OPS) with just 1 HR and 5 XBHs in 51 ABs

Those are crummy numbers for a middle infielder let alone a corner OF.

Given the numbers that Mayberry (.881 OPS) and Young (.847 OPS) put up against LHP the last 3 years and what I think Ruf is capable of doing against LHP, Cholly does have a pretty strong case to make to sit Brown vs LHP if this offense is scuffling. You talking about at least a 200-250 pt swing in OPS will a hell of alot more power especially if Mayberry starts.

The biggest reason I don't think Brown is going to be prove he can be an everyday regular at a corner OF spot is his ability to hit LHP well enough. He needs to be at a minimum this year north of .700 OPS

MG - How did Brown hit lefties in the minors? I think that would have more bearing than the 96 in the bigs.

KAS: Freese, Panda and Chipper had 124 and over OPS+, Zimmerman and Rolen have great gloves.

Out of all the ways to downplay 3B, you choose that crop of players as your examples?

KAS, thsi "chances" crap again. Jimmy Rollins has 3.9 chances per nine innings last year.

I guess his defense is unimportant, too, huh?

Defense is important, no matter the position, because, as a team, you hope to convert all chances to outs. If you're not doing that, even at a less important position like 3B, it's a big deal.

"just" 2-3 chances a game...give me a break.

Point taken, KAS, but there's also no need to exaggerate/use sarcasm in making it. Nobody's spending 'every waking hour' worrying about it.

And certainly, if Michael Young hits well this year, that will definitely mitigate his porous defense, and hopefully he hits well enough where his overall value is not just positive, but above average.

But that doesn't change the fact that he is going to be losing value because of his glove. He'll have to make that up with his bat.

Agree with jbird in the first comment in this post. It's ok to take on a Revere if it leads to another bigger/better piece to accompany him. That didn't happen. So as it stands the same question marks remain in the outfield. I just hope (really hope) that Brown or Ruf can overachieve.

I'm not crazy about Young at all. I wasn't since the day he was brought here. As far as the chances discussion, I find it ridiculous. All it takes is one error to blow an inning and a game open. This team was built on strong defense during their crowning years. He damn well better hit much better this year.

I was referring to Michael in my above post but it counts for both of them anyway.

Does anyone think about what RA Jr. might have done this offseason if he let the Dodgers take Lee last year?

I know everyone is intrigued by Ruf but, I read the D. Young acquisition to mean that Ruf is almost definitely going to play at AAA, barring a trade of Mayberry.

redburb - He did. I would be curious to see his minor league splits the last 2 years though.

Hugh/lore, I'm fine with Ruf going to AAA if his staying up here would have meant starting once a weak, and being used sparingly off the bench.

I'd rather him play every day in AAA or nearly every day up here.

"Losing Worley will be a bit of a hit, but I don't think he's going to get much better than we've already seen."

Sil, Worley's MLB ERA - when healthy - was in the 3.00 - 3.10 range.

That's #2 starter territory.

He doesn't need to get much better than than we've already seen.

There is a significant dropoff from a healthy Worley to Lannan.

Yeah Ruf definitely looks like the odd man out right now. How was Ruf's D at first in the minors? I assume it has to be better than Mayberry's who could be used to spell Howard. But really Mayberry's big leg up is his ability to play all 3 OF spots. I think Mayberry is nothing more than a September callup because that's when he decides he wants to play anyway.

Agreed on Worley, rolo. But I think the front office soured on him and felt like he got fat and happy after a really impressive rookie campaign. Granted their handling of his injury last year wasn't the best at all but his location issues aren't going to help him, especially in the AL. There's a lot of question marks surrounding him. I'm fine with him being dealt. I get the risk that is involved with Lannan but Ruben needed to move Worley to get an OF piece because he backed himself into a financial corner and out of the running for any FA OFs.

Mayberry is out of options, so he's either here or cut - not a callup option.

True, lorecore. Brain lapse. I mostly said that as a joke though since he didn't kick into gear again last year until the 2nd half.

***How was Ruf's D at first in the minors?***

I believe he won the college equivalent of the gold glove twice.

rolo - Worley isn't that good and I didn't mind seeing the Phils trade him when they did.

I do think he has hit his ceiling as a starter too.

Just hope Revere is as good as defensively as advertised in CF and can continue to show a little development offensively.

Mets apparently balked at Bourn wanting the 5th year vesting option. Alderson saying he offered 4/48. I think it would have been a really nice pickup for the Mets. I don't think it would have made them competitive but they could have cashed him in at the deadline for something.

Worley may have had an ERA right around 3.00 when healthy but he was pitching above what his peripherals suggested he was capable of doing.

Worley was a smoke and mirrors act and once he lost that movement on his fastball on the outer half he was cooked. I don't want to discredit what he did here, especially in 2011 but they couldn't hope he'd return to that form. They have enough pitching depth in the farm system to make up for the cost-controlled lost of him.


Joe D - But it didn't really make that much competitive sense though this year and probably next year.

The whole issue with signing Bourn is that a team really didn't want to be stuck paying him large dollar at 33-35.

Mets have to hope that some of their starting pitching prospects pan out and that Wilpon is credible when he says the payroll might increase again relatively soon. $100M is far from a paltry payroll but a far cry from the $140M that Minaya had to work with.

No of course it made no competitive sense for the Mets. I just thought if they brought him on and he performed well they would have been wise to look to move him for more young talent to continue their overhaul. Not saying that is why they were so aggressively pursuing him.

To elaborate on Worley, see MG's earlier post RE: ceiling. For me (channeling my inner Sarge), I'd take Revere and his upside over Worley (with May being the unknown - "prospects are a crapshoot" says Capt. Obvious). It'll work out even better if Pettibone/Martin et al continue their development into the big leagues.

That's what I think Ruben was banking on. They have some arms on the rise and he is hoping that 1 of them can fill the Worley void as Doc and Lee prepare to ride off into the sunset.

Lee has 3 more years (possibly 4) before that sunset comes a calling.

Don't get any ideas, Clifton.

In 2011, Shane Victorino only had 2.28 chances/game in CF.

This is conclusive evidence that defense in CF is irrelevant.

Honestly, at 2.28 chances per game, why do we even have a CF? Why not play another infielder? I mean, both the SS and 2B get around 5 chances a game so if we moved the CF up to the infield and split those chances by 3, the new "CF" would get 3.3 chances per game instead of 2.28.

Defensive Win!!!

I'm less concerned about the # of chances that M Young will get defensively than I am about the inevitable defensive caddy that Cholly is likely to utilize. If it's Frandsen, it's not exactly a significant upgrade. If it's Galvis, you're then using up a bench spot just to have a daily defensive option, who likely doesn't have much value otherwise. How many of those "2-3 chances per game" come in the last inning or two?

boy,I'msirprised at the lack of respect Worley is getting from some of you here.

So let's review what he actually did while in Philly:

In 2011, when he was healthy, he pitched 131 innings with a 3.01 ERA - the 11th LOWEST ERA of any NL pitcher with 125+ IP.

In 2012, before he developed the bone chip problem in his elbow and went on the DL, he pitched 44 innings in 7 games (6.29 IP/game) with an ERA of 3.07.

Despite pitching poorly in 2012 coming of the DL with the bone chips in his elbow, he still has a 3.56 ERA as a starter.

That is something only 30 NL pitchers accomplished in 2011, and only 22 accomplished in 2012 (minimum 125 IP).

By any objective measure, his overall perfomance put him in the top 25% of all starting pitchers in the NL, and higher when he was healthy. With a healthy Worley in the rotation the Phillies sent out three #1's and a #2. No wonder why they had an historic performance as a staff in 2012?

I'm glad you guys all think the prospects are a lock to replace someone who pitched like a #2 starter.


rolo, I said I didn't want to discredit what he did here. I am just doubtful he will return to that form. I think that's a fair opinion.

"His poor numbers against cutters confirm that."

MG, who are the players that perform well against cutters?

rolo, a couple things:

1) No one thinks the prospects are a "lock" to replace what Worley accomplished when healthy. For someone who complains about "straw men" so often....

2) Not many here are convinced that Worley, even if healthy, could have repeated those numbers, since his peripherals, while not painting the portrait of a poor pitcher, didn't pain the picture of a #2 starter.

3) Even if his results while on the mound were #2 quality, where he still failed to measure out as a #2 starter was his inability to consistently go deep into games.

Pretty much what fata said. But what's ironic about Worley not being here now and his inability to get deep into games is that this 2013 team is looking like it will have a much better bullpen which would make getting deep into games less of a concern.

Joe D, it's fair, but keep in mind Hamels had the same surgery to remove bone chips.

Why do you think that Worley is incapable of bouncing back as did Hamels?

2 cents comment but always a good sign that Adams is on the mound and throwing regularly. Phils are going to need a lot of breaks in the health dept this spring in order to get out to a strong start & make a viable playoff push.

rolo, Hamels had better stuff and a better frame/mechanics.

Worley doesn't have half the pedigree as Hamels. Comparing them is doing injustice to Worley because he isn't in the same class.

Nobody is saying that Worley isn't a solid pitching, they're just saying he isn't likely to be an 3.00 ERA guy going forward.

Worley is closer to JA Happ (in that he overperformed expectations in his early time here). I think that is part of the reason you see some discrediting his ability. No knock on Worley.

Worley was a smoke and mirrors act and once he lost that movement on his fastball on the outer half he was cooked. I don't want to discredit what he did here, especially in 2011 but they couldn't hope he'd return to that form.

Joe D, you think that Worley is "cooked" because of his 2012 performance? The guy was pitching with a bone spur in his elbow - that's why he couldn't hit spots later in the season. They're out and he should be good to go. Hamels had the same procedure before 2012 and was outstanding last year.

Re: the trade analysis at the top of the thread, I agree with Fatti. You can't go on and on about how Revere's being cost-controlled makes the trade a good deal without noting that both Worley and May have plenty of years of team control as well. I think the deal's probably about even, as I think Revere's defense is worth a ton and don't have much faith in May. If May pans out, it's a landslide for the Twins.

CT, I don't think he's "cooked". I shouldn't have used that word but I don't think he will be near his 2011 form.

Again on the Hamels comparison. I don't think the two are comparable. Just look at their deliveries. Worley is virtually all arm. Hamels' mechanics are among the best in the league.

lorecore: What does their OPS+ have to do with their glove? Zimmerman had a negative UZR/150 last year. Rolen had his worst UZR/150 of his career last year in only 719 innings.

Your point about OPS+ proves my point. Find a 3B who can hit because the glove isn't that important.

Joe D, of course hamels has better stuff, but that's irrelevant to the question.

As to the "frame and mechanics", if his mechanics were so much better than Worley's how did he devlop bone chips too?

Glad RAJr kept lee. Need the three horses to compete.

Has there been any talk regarding batting Revere 9th? Seems like a viable option especially when Cole and Cliff are starting. Any thoughts?

"Nobody is saying that Worley isn't a solid pitching, they're just saying he isn't likely to be an 3.00 ERA guy going forward."

NEPP, I agree with that, because he's now in the AL.

Had he been traded to an NL team, and you had wanted to do a BL Bet, I would have taken the "under" if we pegged the O/U at 3.50 ERA.

As to the "frame and mechanics", if his mechanics were so much better than Worley's how did he devlop bone chips too?

Posted by: rolo | Thursday, February 14, 2013 at 03:08 PM

Because no matter how good your mechanics, pitching a baseball is still a very unnatural act.

Cole had a few more miles on his arm when he came down with the chips. Conditioning wasn't up to snuff for him in 2011 I guess. He has thrown a lot more innings than Worley and again Worley's mechanics don't lend to prolonged success IMO.

Charlie Manuel will not bat a non-pitcher 9th. Hell, it took him 5 years to not bat the catcher 8th.

"Because no matter how good your mechanics, pitching a baseball is still a very unnatural act."

So then WTF do Worley's "frame and mechanics" have to do with his ability to bounce back?

It's a bullsh8t argument, unless the person making it is an expert in biomechanics, or someone like Rick Petersen.

Mechanics and conditioning are everything in pitching. Fata is right that throwing overhand is incredibly unnatural.

KAS: if Michael Young can hit like the other 3B i mentioned, we won't be complaining(as much) about his defense.

Being 36 with a career 104 OPS+ means you better not suck at defense. All reports suggest he does.

rolo, didn't mean to enrage you over this topic. You have your opinion and I have mine. We'll see how Worley performs.

"Mechanics and conditioning are everything in pitching. Fata is right that throwing overhand is incredibly unnatural."

Yes, we agree. But you still haven't given a rational argument as to why Worley is less capable of bouncing back than any other pticher who had similar surgery.

Are you an expert in biomechanics?

Dude I said his mechanics. That's my reasoning. He is almost all arm and cuts his finish short.

Yeah I'm an expert just like you are a psychic and can tell that Worley will bounce back.


Without being an expert in biomechanics, I'll predict that Worley does not have a season ERA+ higher than 127 in at least 130 IP again in his career.

None of us are experts in baseball, either, rolo.

We should probably just shut down the blog.

Who knows if Worley will bounce back fully healthy from his elbow issue, but even if he does, I'm reticent to believe that he's a 3.00-3.10 ERA pitcher, even in the NL, or a 130 ERA+, or however you want to quantify it.

I think he's got a chance to be a good 3/4, but I don't foresee him being a legitimate #2 starter in the future.

I'm back dudes. I got a personal trainer in the off season and with his personalized exercise regimen, I bulked up with some serious muscle mass! None of that PEDs garbage either, amigos! I'll have you know I raised some serious eyebrows when I showed up at camp weighing in at a studly 142 pounds! I figure all that extra strength should translate to at least 4 jacks this year! You heard it here first!

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