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Monday, February 18, 2013

Comments

It's possible for a player with Revere's skill set to walk more. Certainly, not swinging and missing is a good thing, and he'll never walk like Thome, but he can certainly walk more. A .295 BA with a .325 OBP isn't that good. A .295 BA with a .350 OBP is great.

"Delmon Young led all of baseball by swinging at 59 percent of pitches."

LOL

Did he and Randall Simon go to hitting school together or something?

But yes, contact is good - perhaps someone can get Revere not to offer at some of those 2-0 or 3-1 pitches that happen to be out of the strike zone.

Seidman: If your conclusion is that Revere makes such good contact, then wouldn't you urge Revere to work deeper counts, since fanning for strike 3 would be so rare?

Dear Baseball / sabremetric gods: am I wrong in fantasizing that if I were a GM, the primary trait that I would recruit in each and every position player would be plate discipline aka walks? To me it seems that you can only walk if you can also credibly potentially hit and that teams that walk win (hello man crush pat the bat 2007-2008). Am I wrong?

What's worse about Young is that he swung at 44.9% of pitches OUTSIDE of the strike zone.

Watching him play is going to test the very mettle of all of our baseball fandom.

For a point of reference, the free swinging Hunter Pence, who annoyed the hell out of all of us, chasing everything in the world, has, in his worst season, only swung at 34.5% of pitches.

I don't want Delmon Young to ever see the field.

And if you're one of the biggest groundball machines the league has ever seen, wouldn't the benefit of "driving" a meatball 2-0/3-1 pitch be pretty miniscule to swinging at a pitchers pitch 3-2?

If you're going to be try to tun out grounders on over 60% of your PA, you might as well try to walk before settling on slapping a two strike on the ground - the same way you'd be slapping a 2-0 pitch most likely.

Interesting point, lorecore. The issue with that is that would require him to simply not swing. Because when he does swing, he never misses and barely fouls any pitches off.

I wish there was a way to find out how many times last year the first swing of his plate appearance was also his last.

Exactly, lore. If there's no one on base (man on 3rd with less than 2 outs, for example), he should NEVER swing at a 2-1/2-0/3-0/3-1 pitch.

"For a point of reference, the free swinging Hunter Pence, who annoyed the hell out of all of us, chasing everything in the world, has, in his worst season, only swung at 34.5% of pitches."

Way to p*ss in my cornflakes this Monday morning, Fata.

random stat: Howard has the best career HR/FB% (28.6%) since the stat has been tracked(unclear when that exactly was).

Iceman, I didn't quite write that accurately. I meant to write that he's only swung at 34.5% of pitches outside the strike zone.

I'm not sure if that makes your cornflakes taste any less urine-y, but, well, there it is.

He had a .325 BABIP last season. Not sure what league average is.

Now I'm never going to hate on a guy for being aggressive in 2-0 and 3-1 counts but if you are nothing more than a singles hitter then that doesn't really get me too excited. The payoff of a Ben Revere swinging 2-0 and Ryan Howard doing the same are far differente.

The key for Revere will be finding the right balance in hacking in those counts and taking. If Utley and Howard are on their game this year Revere will need to be on base thus he will have to try to take more in those prototypical hitters counts. I really hope he can get more XBH and get his SLG up but if he couldn't do it in the much larger Target field last year then I have my doubts. Again, he's still young so we will see. I need to see him slice some more gaps.

fatal: thats a little over the top. I mean, as much as Revere is an extreme type of player, he is plenty capable of striking out or hitting the ball in the air. But basically - yea, thats a pretty safe way to characterize him.

I'm just now seeing lore's post which essentially is the same thing I'm trying to say.

Joe D, Revere was 42nd in baseball last year, among qualified hitters, in terms of BABip.

Rough league average BAbip was .307, so his .325 isn't all that impressive.

Yeah, I had the exact same thought as lorecore & Fatalotti as I was reading those numbers: if the guy is so good at making contact, then a 2-strike count should be no big deal. So perhaps he would be well advised to start laying off some of those 2-0 and 3-1 pitches.

Thanks fata, I was just wondering if he was far exceeding the average BABIP like our boy Pence did in 2011.

bap, I see your point but some guys also like to swing early (and are better at making contact then) because they don't trust themselves to produce later in the count. Revere might be one of those guys.

Of course, here's the counter-point to the idea that he should take those 3-1 and 2-0 pitches:

Ben Revere career average:

On 2-0 count: .423 (11 for 26, all singles)
On 3-1 count: .385 (10 for 26, with .636 OBP)

On 2-strike counts: .215 (with 100 Ks in 400 ABs)

All the usual SSS qualifiers apply, but it is fairly clear that even a high contact slap hitter like Ben Revere still fares much better in favorable counts.

The average MLer struck out in 39.8% of PA last year when he had 2 strikes.

Revere has only struck out in ~25% of his 2-strike counts.

Since the benefit of swinging for him isn't much greater than taking a walk, and assuming his contact rates would stay relatively static if he allowed himself to see more deep counts, he should be swinging far less when he's in a hitter's count, unless he has an opportunity to drive someone in with a groudball/single.

Anyone get their hands on a Ben Revere spray chart? The one at fox sports is pretty glitchy for me.

I am assuming that most of his hits are grounders to the opposite field(3B-SS-LF) and line drives to shallow RF. Will be interesting to see opposing team's defensive alignments to contain him if he starts producing.

You have to wonder if Revere gets challenged by pitchers more than most on 2-0/3-0/3-1 counts because they know he won't hit one out...

Sil, I definitely think that's the case. A walk and a single are one in the same so.

bap: good point. regardless of Revere's one sided approach, he's still mortal - 2 strikes sucks.

Following some rather asinine conversations on Beerleaguer over the past couple weeks, a topic like this one really shows how this site shines.

A really great conversation on Ben Revere and his tendencies and deficiencies. Good stuff!!

Fat: I think I agree with your 11:24 post, but I'm a little less sure after seeing Revere's numbers on 2-strike counts. They're small sample sizes, but I suspect that you'd probably see similar numbers even if the SS were larger.

I think we sometimes understate the potential downside of taking a 2-0 or 3-1 pitch. When a hitter swings and misses on a 2-0 pitch, I always find myself thinking, "What's the harm in taking a pitch there?" But there is a harm. The harm is that it puts you into a 2-strike count (if it's a 3-1 pitch), or closer to a 2-strike count (if it's a 2-0 pitch). And, while Revere strikes out much less than most players, he's still a much worse hitter on 2 strike counts -- not only because he strikes out on 25% of them but also because, even when he does put the ball in play on those counts, he hits only .295.

Let's remember, too, that if Revere is swinging on a 3-1 or 2-0 pitch, it's probably because it's a strike -- which means that, if he took more of those pitches, the vast majority would be called strikes. Bottom line: I have no doubt that, if Revere took more 3-1 and 2-0 pitches, his walk rate would go up. But his number of PAs on 2-strike counts would also go up, which would drive his BA down. It's quite possible that the two would about cancel each other out or possibly even result in a net negative (especially when you consider that the marginal benefit of a hit exceeds the marginal benefit of a walk).

kas: be patient, i'm sure rolo will scold us to specify that a healthy HHU will improve Revere's whatever he can think of.

BAP, good points. I just wonder if his increase in walking would more than offset his drop in BA due to seeing more 2-0 counts.

"seeing more 2-strike counts"

Good post, fascinating stuff. Changes my opinion on his walk rate a bit, that's for sure--I mean, how could you really fix this without radically screwing up the guy's game?

You have to wonder if Revere gets challenged by pitchers more than most on 2-0/3-0/3-1 counts because they know he won't hit one out...

Posted by: Sil Campusano | Monday, February 18, 2013 at 11:34 AM

When I read questions like this, it's makes me realize just how great baseball is. For all the stats we have, we still don't have enough! I would love access to Plate Discipline stat splits.

Fat: Yeah, I don't know. It feels like it would, but his 2-strike numbers cause me to wonder. And it's not the type of thing you can calculate, because you'd have to make lots of assumptions about what percentage of those pitches that he's swinging at would have turned into balls and strikes. Then again, you're an actuary. This type of calculation is right in your wheelhouse.

timr, that's the beauty of baseball. It's about adjusting and improving. And it can be done.

Scutaro is basically the same type of hitter as Revere, but if you look at his career, the years in which he was swinging and missing ~2.5% of the time, he was also only swinging at pitches outside the strike zone around 15% of the time, which meant he was able to walk a lot more.

If you're not going to have power, you have to get on base a lot, and you either do that by walking and having a good BAbip or by not walking and having an insane BAbip.

Right now, Revere has a good BAbip without the walking. He's going to have to improve in one of the areas if he wasn't to be known as more than a defense-only player.

BAP, I love stuff that right in my wheelhouse.

bap, when you compare Revere's numbers with two strikes to the MLB average he comes out well even when it's OBP:

Revere: .275

MLB: .244


Great discussion, and I think the answer is obvious:

Revere needs to take more pitches and work deeper counts.

Also, in 2012, 2.08% of all MLB PA resulted in a 3-0 count.

Only .93% of Revere's AB have resulted in a 3-0 count.

Is that because he swings more aggressively, or because pitchers are not afraid to throw strikes.

rolo, specifically, he needs to take more non-strikes. His O-swing% is pretty good when compared to the league average, but given his skills (no-power, speed), his O-swing% needs to be elite (in terms of being low) to become a threat at the plate.

It's conversations like this that just further cement this fact.

Baseball is the best sport. Period.

Good thread. Need to know what kind of pitches and where in the zone they are located when Revere has a 2-0/3-1 to really know if he should be more patient.

It very well might be that pitchers are willing to throw him a 4-seam fastball right over the plate since there is basically zero chance he hits it out & a slim chance he drives it to the alley/down the line.

bap and Fatti, I'll let you interpret the data, but if you scrll to the bottom of this page where it says "PITCH DETAILS" it gives you some data on the pitches Revere saw, both in the minors and MLB:


http://minorleaguecentral.com/player?pid=519184&split=3000

Hope it helps.

"when you compare Revere's numbers with two strikes to the MLB average he comes out well even when it's OBP."

That's true, but it's irrelevant. We weren't comparing Revere to other hitters. We were asking whether his OBP would go up if he laid off more 2-0 & 3-1 pitches. It's not clear that it would.

He may be better than other hitters on 2-strike counts, but he still gets substantially worse on those counts. If he starts laying off 2-0 & 3-1 pitches -- the bulk of which are strikes (or he wouldn't be swinging in the first place) -- then he'll be working himself into more 2-strike counts. His walks would no doubt go up -- though probably not as much as we would all like to believe (since most of these pitches he's swinging would not be called balls). And his BA would likely go down as a result of seeing more 2-strike pitches. The more I think about, the more I suspect that this would be a net negative.

BAP, I think it comes down to this:

Without power, and the ability to hit nearly everything he swings at, he needs to have an exceptional eye, and simply swing at an elite level of pitches outside the zone. I'm taking like 15-20%. He could still swing at the same amount of pitches in the zone, but swinging at less pitches outside the zone could only be a net positive, since he's unlikely to get on-base swinging at a pitch outside the zone, either way.

Since he has no power, and hits everything he swings at, the only way he'll have a good-to-great OBP is to either walk more by swinging at less balls (at an elite level), or by having an Ichiro style BAbip.

Right... this comes down to a question:

Would laying off more 2-0 and 3-1 increase his OBP (by earning more walks) or decrease his OBP (by lowering his batting average)?

KAS, if he laid off more balls and swung at the same amount of strikes, I think both would go up.

Doesn't that contact rate make him the perfect 2 hitter? A reliable hit and run guy could reduce the drawbacks of having no power.

Fat: Yeah, I think that's a good summation. Swinging on 2-0 and 3-1 counts is probably a net positive when he swings at pitches that would have been called strikes. But it's a bad thing for any hitter to swing at a would-be ball on a 2-0 or 3-1 pitch. And it's especially bad when Ben Revere does it, since a walk is nearly as good as anything that would happen if he puts the ball in play.

Revere undoubtedly swings at fewer out-of-zone pitches than most hitters but he needs to do it even less to really become a plus leadoff hitter.

Fatalotti: That's possible. Here are the numbers when he makes contact in certain counts:

2-0: .423
2-1: .321
3-1: .385 (18 walks in the 44 PAs)
2-2: .200
3-2: .333 (29 walks in the 117 PAs)

Interestingly, it appears he's had just ten 3-0 counts in his career, and walked in each of them.

Also interesting this walk rate is much higher in a 3-1 count than a 3-2 count.

Revere undoubtedly swings at fewer out-of-zone pitches than most hitters but he needs to do it even less to really become a plus leadoff hitter.

Posted by: bay_area_phan | Monday, February 18, 2013 at 12:33 PM

Exactly. Given that his power is such a minus to his skillset, he needs to do something else really well to mitigate it. The demand for him to have an exceptional eye are really high.

One of the fundamental rules of hitting is to avoid 2-strike counts, if possible.

One of the fundamental rules of hitting is to avoid 2-strike counts, if possible.

Posted by: clout | Monday, February 18, 2013 at 12:37 PM

True. The most fundamental rule is to swing at strikes and take balls.

I like the numbers put forth in the article and the thread, but they seem pretty intuitive based on what I've read abut Revere's game so far. The different avgs on different counts is awesome though.

It looks like his results are plenty good in hitters counts, and he does look like he wants to get into those. I think he should certainly look to capitalize on those counts against pitchers with good control since they likely will avoid walking him in any situation. I also think it would be a good idea to be more willing to take the pitch against pitchers with poor control, like a lot of relievers. They may be interested in throwing a meatball right down the middle, but may not accomplish that every time.

Playoff Projections:

Just got updated on Friday at Baseball Prospectus (based on PECOTA projections and running season stimulation):

Phils are only at a 28.6% chance of making the playoffs and 1.6% chance of making the WS.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Always take these kind of things with a grain of salt but especially since if you really need to take a good look at how healthy some of the key Phils' players look.

The only thing that really surprised me looking at the NL numbers was the Mets' chances. Seems ridiculously high unless they are projecting the Mets' starters to be a lot better & all healthy along with a notable improvement in the bullpen this year.

One thing I noticed looking at Revere's splits, is that he has a significantly higher OBP away from Target Field.

Does that bode well for his move to the Zen?

Jesus Christ stat and number overload in that column.

On Revere: He does not walk much because pitchers challenge him at 2-0. If they lost the zone and go 3-0, he takes and get a walk. If they start firing strikes, he swings. I have no problem with that.

"Interestingly, it appears [Revere's] had just ten 3-0 counts in his career, and walked in each of them."

Incorrect. He has had 35 3-0 counts in his career. 18 of those PAs ended in walks. He went 5 for 17 in the others.

He has had 10 PAs which ENDED on the next pitch after a 3-0 count -- and all 10 were walks. That's as it should be. Out of all the everyday players in baseball, there may not be a single one who has less business swinging on a 3-0 pitch than Ben Revere. About the only time he should ever even consider it would be if there are 2 outs, a RISP, and it's an absolutely fat pitch. And even then, I'm not so sure he should be swinging unless the pitcher, Galvis, or Mini-Mart is on deck.

Very good article and nice conversation-starter. I imagine with spring training heating up, so will the content from the BL writing staff.

Revere has been one of my favorite players to watch during his time in the league. I was lukewarm when they got him because he's a pop-gun hitter, but I'm glad we'll be able to get to watch him for the next ~5 years (hopefully). He's an exciting player.

At the very least, it's nice to get a player on this team that isn't past his prime (M. Young) or in his 'prime' and mostly terrible (D. Young). I really think injecting new blood into the core was needed this year if they want to make a run (yes, I know this can't be measured- just an opinion).

As for the topic at hand, I'll let guys like Fata who are actually in the business of numbers tell me what to think here. If it isn't as simple as combining multiple seasons worth of statistics on BR, I'm swimming in the deep end.

Revere's projections for the year:

Steamer: .270/.315/.366 (.288 wOBA) with 3 HRs in 654 PAs

Bill James: .288/.331/.331 (.294 wOBA) with 0 HRs in 551 PAs

ZiPS: .285/.326/.342 (.300 wOBA) with 1 HR in 639 PAs

Oliver: .284/.330/.335 (.296 wOBA) with 0 HR in 593 PAs

Didn't pay for PECOTA but all 4 projections systems show no improvement for Revere this year.

Take it with a grain of salt but this sounds like good news. http://t.co/6bu7Dcm0

bap: Thanks for the correction, I knew that sounded wrong.

But here's the interesting thing. That means Ben Revere has NEVER swung at a 3-0 pitch and put it in play. Correct?

I actually like having a hitter like Revere in the lineup. If you're in a situation where you absolutely want the ball put in play, this is the kind of hitter you want up. He's not going to strike out and he's gonna make contact.

KAS: Correct. He has never swung at a 3-0 pitch and put it in play. What I can't tell from the B-Ref splits is whether he has ever swung at a 3-0 pitch at all. There wouldn't be much occasion for him to do so, especially since he was playing for an AL team.

Followed the link, above, to the Halladay piece. Saw the Galvis PED quote for the first time. What the hell does this even mean? I didn't do nothing?

"“It was tough, man. Sometimes you don’t do stuff and you pay for it. Like I said before, that’s life and you have to move on. Sometimes when you don’t do nothing and the blame you, that’s bad stuff but they have rules and you have to follow the rules. But that’s in the past right now. Right now I’m focused on 2013.”

Juan Pierre career numbers on 3-0:

117 PAs, 2 ABs, 115 walks, 1 hit, 1 single, 1 RBI. So it seems that, at least in 1 of those 2 ABs, he was swinging away because there was a RISP -- which is really the only conceivable situation in which Pierre/Revere should ever be swinging on 3-0.

1 RBI in 117 PA? he stinks!

1 RBI in 117 PA? he stinks!

Posted by: lorecore | Monday, February 18, 2013 at 02:00 PM

BAP was probably mistakenly looking at Jayson Werth's splits.

Corey - I think your analysis of Revere's approach at the plate is incomplete until you are able to identify the quality of his contact. If Revere is making a lot of weak contact, that suggests he is swinging at too many pitches even if he is putting a lot of balls in play.

Corey - and by good contact, I am not just talking about ground balls, fly balls and line drives. I am talking about the velocity and angle of balls off the bat.

please equate for the position of the moon relative to Earth's orbit during each batted ball as well.

Whether or not Revere makes weak contact isn't determined by him swinging at too many pitches. Partially, maybe. Not completely.

To do that analysis, one would have to go back and watch every single plate appearance he had last season, which would be an overwhelming amount of work for a small payoff. Either way, this isn't an analysis of how hard he makes contact, it's showing why his lack of walks doesn't necessarily mean he has a poor eye.

Revere swung at about 3% less pitches outside the strike zone than the league-average player last season, per Fangraphs. That, along with the other swing stats I have here indicate he doesn't swing a lot the way a Shane Victorino or Hunter Pence did.

Corey, you're correct. His plate discipline is good, relative to the league average hitter. But his power his awful relative tot he league average hitter.

So to offset his awful skill, he needs to be exceptional somewhere else. He needs to have exceptional plate discipline to accrue more walks, and increase his OBP. His OSwing% isn't bad, but it's not terrific, either.

Take it with a grain of salt but this sounds like good news. http://t.co/6bu7Dcm0

Posted by: donc | Monday, February 18, 2013 at 01:41 PM


I'm not sure what the better news is in that tidbit - Halladay looking good, or Utley taking live batting practice.

Single weakest part about that post was that the additional $5-$6M the Phils would have had to spend if they would have signed Adams wouldn't have allowed them to get a difference maker anyways anyways for the rotation or corner OF spot.

The one SP who might have actually come here and been a clear upgrade over Lannan was McCarthy.

Corner OF pickings were even slimmer since it still wouldn't have allowed them to go after Ross or Swisher. Not without having made a couple of other moves either.

Would you argue then, Fatalotti, that Juan Pierre was not an effective hitter?

Pierre hit .300/.347/.374 during his eight-year peak from 2001-09.

If Ben Revere had four more singles last year, his line would have been .301/.340/.350.

The upside on Revere is that he is a young player, especially by Phils standards, and may well be able to learn to refine his approach.
Learn what pitches he should let go , what he should try to foul off, and what to swing at.
It will be interesting to see him play and see what our eyes tell us.

I am actually cautiously optimistic so far. The only single bad news injury-wise in camp so far has been D. Young (silver-lining).

Utley is taking BP and no reports of any setbacks. Ditto Howard.

Adams was on the mound already and didn't report any issues.

Halladay is 'LG' (looking good) although I still want to see what the radar gun says and how his location looks on his fastball variations.

Galvis is back and it sounds like it means that Mini Mart will be vanquished to Lehigh to hopefully not be seen again in '13.

No other reports of guys showing up late/out-of-shape/early nagging injuries. Been a pleasant surprise.

On the Bastardo post linked above... I have a hard time believing Chad Durbin will take high leverage opportunities from Bastardo. If he does, that's mis-management.

(One caveat... if Bastardo is struggling, all bets are off. But I believe he'll pitch very well this year.)

Corey: With 4 more singles, his OBP would have been .336. To get to Juan Pierre's .347, he'd have needed to reach base 10 more times. A difference of 10 hits/walks is pretty significant.

MG: The death knell for Mini Mart seems to be Manuel's quote that Galvis should be on the ML roster. There's no way Mini Mart makes it over Galvis. That doesn't mean Galvis makes it either, just that it will take a series of injuries for Martinez to make the big club.

Bay_area_phan: If Revere had 4 more singles, he'd have 186 (Hits + BB + HBP) in 547 (Hits + BB + HBP + Sac Flies), giving him an OBP of .340.

So 4 more singles, not 10 hits/walks.

Maybe you were adding 4 plate appearances when you were adding those 4 singles. I wasn't, to show that if he had the exact same year but 4 more ground balls found holes, he'd have that Juan Pierre season.

Phils should have hesitation counting on Bastardo to give them a full season where he gives them at 60-65 IP and without a period of at least 4-6 weeks where he really struggles badly with his command.

Something he has yet to do at the minor or MLB level as a reliever in his career. It would be a great time for him to due it too.

Papelbon said the other day he thinks the '13 Phils' bullpen is like the '07 Red Sox pen which was a key staple for the Red Sox and a big reason why they ultimately made the playoffs & won the WS. Oddly, their bullpen really began to solidify after they dumped Romero and made a few other roster moves.

I don't think Papelbon would be able to duplicate his '07 season again due to the slight drop in velocity but the rest of the analogy holds some interesting comparisons.

Okajima was brought in on a 2-yr deal and was a dominant set up guy (Adams)

Other keys in the Red Sox bullpen were Timlin, K. Snyder, J. Lopez, and M. Delcarmen.

Phils have a dominant LHP reliever who is capable of doing what Lopez did (Bastardo).

DeFratus could be the Phils' version of Delcarmen this year and be a solid option in the 6th-7th innings.

Durbin can be possibly be an adequate matchup option like Synder was.

The only thing that is really lacking is that the Phils don't have a veteran like Timlin. Where the Phils need Aumont to step up.

If Revere's defense is as good as advertised and he gives the Phils an average north of .280 with 35+ SBs, he will have a solid season for them.

Not expecting him to suddenly boost his power or walk numbers.

MG, are you counting Stutes out of the BP equation? Horst as well? No shot for Schwimer or Valdes?

Corey:

Pierre was a league average hitter or better in only 4 of his 13 ML seasons. In other 9 seasons, he was a poor to abysmal hitter.

In those 4 seasons, however, he had the following numbers:

2003: 7.4 BB%, 4.7 K%, .320 BAbip, Osw% 18.5%, .305/.361/.373 (100 wRC+)
2004: 6.0 BB%, 4.7 K%, .340 BAbip, Osw% 14.5%, .326/.374/.407 (111 wRC+)
2009: 6.4 BB%, 6.4 K%, .331 BAbip, Osw% 25.5%, .308/.365/.392 (106 wRC+)
2012: 5.2 BB%, 6.2 K%, .327 BAbip, Osw% 31.3%, .307/.351/.371 (99 wRC+)

For as little as Revere strikes, he's never sniffed the levels that Pierre has. Revere's lowest K% is 8.5%, no where near the 4-6% that Pierre had in his 4 best seasons. Also, in two of those season, Pierre had an elite ability to not swing at non-strikes. Seems to have disappeared as he's gotten older (which is pretty normal).

Pierre, just to create 4 seasons that were better than league average, had to be elite at not striking out, had a decent enough walk rate in a couple of those seasons, and had high BAbip.

It's pretty non-controversial that Revere to make up for being so poor power-wise by doing something else REALLY well. That thing is going to have be his plate discipline.

I'd also like to snuff the myth that Pierre was a good offensive player during this peak.

Look at these year-to-year wRC+

2000-2012:
55, 91, 64, 100, 111, 83, 81, 82, 76, 106, 80, 79, 99

Outside of the 4 years where his wRC+ was >= 99, he's been a very poor hitter.

I don't want to Revere to turn into Pierre. I want him to be much better and more consistent than Pierre.

rolo - No and I am really interested to see how Horst's stuff looks this spring from a velocity standpoint and is his slider has the same wicked movement it did last year.

Valdes is a filler guy who gives them some organizational depth. Ideally he stats the year at Lehigh. Ditto Schwimmer & Stutes.

As long as the injury bug doesn't hit their bullpen again this spring, the Phils actually should start the year with a bullpen I like (maybe really like depending how Adams and Horst look this spring):

Papelbon
Adams
Bastardo
Aumont
Durbin
DeFratus
Horst

Great that guys how have no business on a MLB roster including Savery, Rosenberg, and Diekman likely won't even make the first cut this spring.

Fatalotti: If he provides elite defense in CF and elite speed on the base paths, he doesn't have to be a 100-a-year wRC+ guy to be a very valuable player.

But I agree... my hope is he grows into a better hitter than Pierre was.

MG: I agree with that pen as well.

KAS, that's very true. But since we're talking about his offense, and trying to project what he'd have to do to become a good offensive player, that was the point I was addressing.

Thus far in his career, Revere has not bee a valuable or good hitter. He's been a valuable player due to this defense and baserunning, but in the batter's box, he hasn't.

Fatalotti: Well... I'm not sure an 88 wRC+ in just your 2nd ML season at age 24 is all that bad. But I get your point. He's young and we expect him to improve.

Right now the roster is pretty much set with the exception of backup C unless Quintero doesn't win the job.

Bullpen is the one I listed above with Horst as the defacto long man. Positional roster is set too if you believe what Cholly said about Galvis and if D. Young starts the year on the DL.

Funny though how you hear on DSN there is so much roster uncertainty. Exact opposite is true.

Roster is set already barring any obvious injury setbacks.

KAS, maybe an 88 wRC+ isn't bad for Revere, but from an objective standpoint, but among qualified hitters last year, it was 22nd worst wRC+ in baseball.

MG: So is this what you are thinking?

1B: Howard
2B: Utley
SS: Rollins
3B: Young
C: Kratz
RF: Mayberry Jr.
CF: Revere
LF: Brown

Bench: Quintero, Frandsen, Galvis, Ruf, Nix

1: Hamels
2: Halladay
3: Lee
4: Kendrick
5: Lannan

Bullpen: Papelbon, Adams, Bastardo, Durbin, Aumont, De Fratus, Horst

I agree on the roster being more or less set, although I do expect Stutes to compete with De Fratus and Aumont for the last pen spots.

Fatalotti: Yes... for Revere as a 24-year old in his 2nd season. And for a guy who provides elite defense and base-running.

And yes, we expect him to get better. But it doesn't make sense to judge him on that stat alone.

KAS, I never judged him on that stat alone. I said elite defense and baserunning, bad at the plate so far in his career. Pretty accurate summation of his career.

Also, CFs get like, what, 2-3 chances a game. That's irrelevant. :)

KAS - Exactly. The Phils have said though they want a second LHP in the bullpen. Dubee said it the other day. Horst is that 2nd lefty but he's the only guy they have right now as a potential long-man who can go 2 IP.

Other realistic options are Valdes (a guy who has reverse splits vs LHB) and Diekman. Diekman has no shot at making this team unless they are hit with at least 2-3 injuries.

Maybe they take Valdes over a guy like DeFratus if he has a really good spring.

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EST. 2005

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