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Tuesday, February 19, 2013

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The package would be Tommy joseph, jesse biddle, darin ruf, cesar hernandez, carlos tocci, cody asche, and phillippe aumount would that get it done?!?

"The Phillies have so very little to trade for Stanton."

Incorrect. Amaro is finalizing a deal for Stanton in exchange for 'productive players' that 'produce production.'

Honestly though, until we can rule out that Amaro has Loria at gunpoint, I'm keeping my hopes high on this.

rolo: My last word on this.

The problem is, "chop-busting" is conveyed by intonation and doesn't translate over the Internet. So, it comes across as, "Here goes our lawyer poster twisting the truth, just like he does in his job."

I mean, how would you like it if someone accused you of making a living by twisting the truth? It's kind of a dickish thing to say.

"Please ignore WIP until further notice"

Fixed it for you.

Roman Quinn comes at #100, on the BA Top 100.

BAP, it's really the beauty of the actuarial profession. So few people, including the actuaries sometimes, know what we do, we never:

1) Get asked for helps from friends and family members, and

2) Get made fun of.

It's the reason I got into the profession.

I also work with plenty of lawyers, and I find them to be a great group of folks. Lawyer on, my friend.

Biddle has made every major outlet's top 100. Quinn, Morgan, Joseph, and Martin have all made an appearance, but never on the same list.

If Rube were able to get Stanton, he'd be the greatest GM in team history.

There is basically zero chance of it ever happening though...unless Rube found the "Force Trades" button in his MLB13 Franchise mode.

Brief discussion on DC SportsTalk 980 yesterday was if the Nats lineup is the best all time. Not the best Nats lineup, but the best lineup from any team...ever.

bbeard: "brief" because its a no-brainer, HELLYEA!

I just found that rumor on CBS sports page, too. Surprised they would even write it. Can't imagine it's real, but can you imagine if it was?

FUnny, I was just thinking to myself "'27 Yankees or 2013 Nats"...what are the odds?

Oh boy, crazy talk hour. This Stanton rumor nonsense is crazier than signing Lee.

What's the going rate for a 23 year old RF who just posted a 158 OPS+ season at Age 22 and who is under team control through 2016?

Thanks Corey. Now I will have to paddle through all the $hit that will be thrown around. And some BL posters who have not a single clue of how this works. They Will be posting all the little ideas and Harry the K packages. I said Harry the K. Because LF is still too close with crap...... Haha

What cost controlled MLB talent would the Phils have to give up in addition to the prospects, as prospects alone probably don't get it done?

So let's make a list of who the Phillies have that are 1) reasonably young, and 2) have some MLB experience, and 3) are cost-controlled for at least a couple more years:

(*Note: This is simply a list of such players, not an editorial as to whether they're viewed as talented enough to be trade fodder for Giancarlo Stanton.)


Dom Brown
Darin Ruf
Ben Revere
Kyle Kendrick
Bastardo
Mayberry (though he's not young)
Stutes
Galvis
Horst
DeFratus
Schwimer
Diekman
Savery
Cloyd
Aumont
Rosenberg

Someone on the list above would probably have to be included, probably at least 2 of the first 5 guys on the list, so it's hard to make that trade without hurting the 2013 team in another area.

For instance, suppose they requested Kendrick and Bastardo? That's hurts the rotation and the 'pen. If it's "only" Brown and Ruf then you do it in a second, but I suspect they don't have neough ttalent to get Stanton anyway.

not that it matters, but I'm pretty sure that any deal for Stanton would require a team to take on Nolasco's contract.

I am amazed he's still there.

Ben Revere, Dom Brown plus 2 or 3 prospects would likely be enough.

Revere, Brown, Morgan and Biddle...

Yeah, we'd also have to take on Nolasco (which really isnt a brutal deal as its only for 1 season)

Mandy Housenick ‏@inthephilshouse
#PHILLIES FILES: Rollins tells The Morning Call, "This is probably the most complete team I've ever had." http://fb.me/2wg1HiPd3

NEPP, that would mean RFD in CF for another season.

Still, I would probably do that trade.


Lineup?:

Rollins
Utley
Stanton
Howard
Chooch
MYoung
Ruf LF (if he's "real")
Mayberry

"Brief discussion on DC SportsTalk 980 yesterday was if the Nats lineup is the best all time. Not the best Nats lineup, but the best lineup from any team...ever."

That's probably the second most outlandish baseball-related comment I've ever heard. The only one I can think of that topped it was when I was a kid and a local sports radio talk show host said, "There are those who say that Johnnie Lemaster is the finest shortstop in the history of baseball."

rolo: "For instance, suppose they requested Kendrick and Bastardo? That's hurts the rotation and the 'pen."

Right. Because if there's one untouchable in the system, who you wouldn't give up for Stanton, it's Kyle Kendrick. Of course.

Jack: I hope that wasn't sarcasm.

NEPP and lore, the fish would also probably want Kendrick in return, because he's cost controlled for 2 more seasons.

I'm not joking. Reason?:

Nolasco 2010 - 2012: 554 IP, 87 ERA+

Kendrick 2010 - 2012: 454 IP, 98 ERA+


Some interesting comparisons:

Phils Hughes 2010 - 2012: 442 IP, 95 ERA+ (yes, BL, KK has, by that measure, actually been a better pitcher the last 3 years than Phil Hughes).

Tommy Hanson 2010 - 2012: 507 IP, 103 ERA+

Ubaldo Jiminez 2010 - 2012: 586 IP, 102 ERA+

Ricky Romero 2010 - 2012: 616 IP, 105 ERA+

James MacDonald 2010 - 2012: 413 IP, 90 ERA+

Rick Porcello 2010 - 2012: 521 IP, 88 ERA+

Jason Vargas 2010 - 2012: 611 IP, 96 ERA+

Gavin Floyd 2010 - 2012: 549 IP, 102 ERA+

Jeff Samardzija 2010 - 2012: 282 IP, 102 ERA+

Paul Maholm 2010 - 2012: 536 IP, 94 ERA+

Oh, Jack, please show me where I stated I would be unwilling to give up Kendrick or Bastardo, or anyone for that matter, for Stanton.

The only way I can see a Stanton trade -->

Cliff Lee to TX, Brown or Ruf, Biddle or Morgan, Quinn or Franco to MIA, Jurickson Profar to MIA, Low Level Lottery Ticket from TX** to Phils, Stanton and Nolasco to PHL.

Or LLLTfT goes directly to MIA and Quinn/Franco stay here.

Let the mocking begin ...

rolo: if you were the marlins GM, how many players would you have to ask for first, before getting to Kyle Kendrick?

Halladay and Kendrick plus cash and a prospect for Stanton and Nolasco & a PTBNL.

lorecore, a LOT, but I'd ask for Kendrick as a throw in to eat Nolasco's innings.

can we try to be these people, please?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19297

Yes, because a team trying to obviously cut costs and rebuild with only young, cheap players clearly wants to trade for a 28-year old #4 starter set to make $4.5 million this season and somewhere around $6 million next season.

Kendrick is not without positives--he makes sense for a team like the Phillies. But the idea that he has some sort of trade value to a team like the Marlins is ludicrous. They're not trying to win, and they can find a dirt-cheap pitcher who is younger to fill the same spot.

I understand you're supposed to take emotion out of these things, and Meyer's trade would be a win for the Phils. But moving Halladay to a 60-win team in one of the few seasons he has left in the league would actually upset me. They owe him more than that.

Of course his trade value is nil until he throws a regular season pitch.

The word on the street is that for the Phillies to pull off a trade for Stanton they would also have to include 25,000 fans. This way they can have someone show up to the games.

"I mean, how would you like it if someone accused you of making a living by twisting the truth?"

Yes, the reputation is so very undeserved.

I figured pairing him with Kyle would ease the pain.

I imagine they could get Stanton if they gave Loria a shopping cart, the keys to the Philadelphia Museum of Art, and a 30-minute head start.

Considering there's about $1 billion of art just in the Manet room, I dont know that that's a fair trade.

Maybe offer him 2-3 good paintings and that's it.

That's why he only gets the one cart.

But fine, if you really want to make sure he can't get away with too much, you could give him a hand truck and the keys to the Rodin.

Brilliant, Reverend!

In Meyer's scenario, who takes over in the rotation for Doc & KK? Would Giancarlo make up for the wins we're hoping to get from having them on the mound?

(And I agree with Iceman about not wanting that for Halladay.)

b_a_p, my comrade, you appear to lack a necessary asset for the profession - thick skin. Preferably shark-like skin.

Re: Paintings:
Loria gets his choice of 1 painting each from the Phila Museum of Art, the Barnes and the Brandywine**, a sculpture of his choice from the Rodin, Dom Brown and Cecily Tyson. If need be, we can throw in a halberd and a gauntlet from the armor collection to sweeten the pot.

** The N. C. Wyeth "Treasure Island" is exempted.

Edmundo: I can think of a number of commentators/sportscasters that Phillies fans (as a general set) would be willing to include in any deal for Stanton.

May as well throw William Penn's hat in the cart.

Whoops, not Cecily Tynan.

Well that's different, then.

The Gross Clinic (Eakins) is worth around $70 million...that alone should be enough for Stanton.

Philibuster, c'mon now. :) I didn't offer up TMac or Wheels or Sarge. Or Eskin. I offered Cecily Tyson, we're talking real value. That pink dress that she wore on Valentine's Day ...

It is always funny when BAP gets indignant about things. Just remember, he told us years ago it doesn't matter what you say on here because you shouldn't be held accountable for it.

What's the WAR value of all that art?

Depends on if the Dali exhibit is back in town, Conway.

Edmundo: Mea culpa, I misread and thought you said Tynan, the ABC "meteorologist."

That said, just imagine if they got Merrill Reese to be the color guy for TMac.

Philib, a big DOH on my part.

Oh, you did mean her?

Well, I must admit, I'd probably be more loathe to trade Glenn Schwartz's bowtie...

Sources are saying this could happen. Centered around Brown, Revere, Biddle and Morgan with other pieces. I'm not sure it will happen but if so, its about time.

Todd Zolecki ‏@ToddZolecki
Jimmy Rollins discusses the Phillies' age, their chances to win and why leading off is not terribly important to him: http://bit.ly/VGnefX

But I was told that Jimmy is forcing UC to bat him leadoff...


Well, if DPatrone's sources are saying it...it MUST be true, eh?

Here's a link to an article about how well organizations have drafted and developed young pitching talent.

The Phillies have traded a fair amount of it away to get other players, but nonetheless, it's worth a read:

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/yankees-shouldn-t-brag-about-recent-track-record-of-homegrown-arms-090939543.html

I assume that was a fake DPatrone post. It was too perfect to be true.

Jack, I thought the same.

Its funny how it mirrored my completely baseless musings of earlier today on the bare minimum it would take to even start a conversation with Miami.

stubhub: Phillies tickets will have a minimum list price of $3. There will also be a $1.50 MLB fee on all MLB tickets sold.

Is Ben Revere's nickname "Tootsie Pop"?

This from the Zolecki article linked by GBrett:

"The little man out in center field, Tootsie Pop, Ben Revere, he’s going to bring that energy."

NEPP, if the Phillies actually did trade for Stanton DPat would have a stroke.

TTI: In an attempt to elevate the level of Beerleaguer discourse above the ignominious levels to which it too often declines, I have opted to delete what I was about to say in response to your 4:12 post.

How about rumors about me hitting cleanup?

Actually, Mini Mart, I read that you might not even make the team.

"Among those likely to be reserves on the team's 25-man roster, there's not really a candidate to back up center fielder Ben Revere. Michael Martinez is unlikely to make the team"


from Mandy Housenick of The Morning Call
http://www.mcall.com/sports/baseball/phillies/mc-phillies-spring-training-rotation-0218-2-20130218,0,3656548.story

Of course, if Mini-Mart did make the team as Revere's CF, it would obliterate BAP's argument that backups are actually much better than replacement level would have you believe.

Jack: Not really. It would just show that the Phillies are clueless.

BAP: They've had Mini-Mart on the 25-man roster for the last two years.

You need more evidence?

Jack: I'm more than convinced when it comes to the Phillies' stupidity. But I don't think you can point to the single worst player in baseball as proof about the quality of your typical major league backup.

GBrett: I don't really follow the logic of that article. Isn't Mayberry a perfectly viable backup centerfielder?

Mayberry is obviously not a backup CF...its not like they gave him 52 starts there last year or something.

"BAP: They've had Mini-Mart on the 25-man roster for the last two years.

You need more evidence?"


Thanks for the reminder, Jack.

the other day in an interview on DNL chollie called his new cf toy, "rivera." jimmy probably gave him a nick that chollie can remember. he can just call him "tootsie."

What are the odds that if Ruf & Dom both bust RAJ gets Alfonso Soriano to play LF?

UGH. It makes me sick just thinking this is a possibility.

Lynsk: If Dom & Ruf BOTH bust, it is far more likely that the Phillies will be trading their veteran players for prospects than trading their prospects for veteran players.

BAP, that's a good point about Mayberry.

Man. Re-watching the 9/20/12 really helps to improve your mood. Especially the 1st.

To any/all entertaining the idea that your Philadelphia Phillies have anywhere near the amount of available talent necessary to acquire Giancarlo Stanton:

DAB THE SWEAT OFF YOUR SYPHILITIC FOREHEAD AND GO BACK TO DRINKING MERCURY

I dont care as long i still hit lead off says J-Roll..

Obviously you would want a guy like Stanton but the cost is probably way too high for this team. It would really strip what little we have farm wise with our pitching.

We dont have enough on the Farm, we'd obviously have to give up MLB players too and that's the non-starter part of the deal...at least if its a trade they make trying to compete in 2013. If its a deal aimed towards 2014 or 2015 then it might work but by then he'd be well into his Arb years anyway and nearly a FA.

Babe Ruth was bought for good old fashioned cash, $100,000. to an owner who wanted to finance a Broadway play. Substitute some of cigar-guy's billion to an owner who wants to buy art, adjust for inflation, and give MM a one-way ticket to deliver the money.

Stanton's on track to be the next Mickey Mantle, so what do you give up?

Everything you need to give up for him.

We get Stanton yet?

http://www.thegoodphight.com/2013/2/19/4001918/2013-phillies-player-preview-jimmy-rollins

Very good write-up on Rollins. The Good Phight became barely readable during last season, but they've become a bit better over the off-season.

TTI: Our farm is barren enough at the top levels that you might as well trade what little you still have for a 23-year old stud.

Put it this way: who do you think provides more value over the next four seasons? Brown, Biddle, Adam Morgan and Tommy Joseph combined, or Stanton plus whatever other guys you use in the spots those guys would have been in?

I will take Stanton and whoever is left. It's not like your trading all your prospect depth for a year of Hunter Pence. This is four years of a guy who projects to be one of the best players in baseball. Sure, you're taking some risk. But the Phils are probably gonna stink in a couple years, and none of those guys you'd trade for Stanton are likely to change that. But Stanton might change things.

That's all hypothetical of course. There is no way in hell they're actually going to come close to getting him. The Fish aren't dealing him now, and the Phil's would get outbid in five seconds if he was on the block.

But it won't be because the Phils aren't willing to give up some mediocre prospects to get him. That's laughable, especially coming from people on here who defended trading away a bunch of prospects to get Hunter Pence.

Jack: I don't dispute that Stanton COULD be a difference maker, but your whole rationale is a little too Pollyannaish for me.

I think your conclusion is a little spotty too. You are operating from the belief that the Phillies will stink in a few years (something you have been saying for like 2 years now), but there is a huge risk in going all in on him.

Stanton could come in and absolutely rake and be worth every thing you gave up. He could come in and get hurt and flame out. He could wilt under the pressure of playing in a big market. Those are three conclusions that could happen and in two of them you basically screwed your future and guaranteed being non-contenders.

Look if it were me as the GM- of course I would be trying to get him. But you would be doing so realizing that you are basically starting over rebuilding the farm system which is something you did just this past season. At some point all that reset button pushing catches up with a team.

The art trades mentioned earlier for Stanton were interesting. Maybe a combo of art and players would get it done.

How about the Rocky statue, some artifacts from the Mummers Museum(which would tie in nicely in the Miami stadium and uniforms), MiniMart and D. Young.

I know we would miss the Mummers artifacts, but you gotta give something to get something.

TTI: Your points are valid, to a certain extent. But your logical flaw is in equating all three of those scenarios. You're saying there are three possible scenarios, two of them are bad, and therefore it's not worth it to do it. That ignores that those scenarios aren't created equally, either in terms of likelihood or in terms of risk/reward. To me, scenario 1 is more likely to happen than either 2 or 3 (though both are possibilities, obviously), and the reward to 1 happening is bigger than the downside to 2 or 3 (mostly, yes, because I think the Phils are not in a particularly good spot the next couple years whether they have Jesse Biddle and Dom Brown or not). To me, while your points are valid, the calculus still seems fairly obvious. I admit the inputs are subjective. If you have legit worries about Stanton as a player, that's your subjective view, and it may change the calculus for you.

But where were your concerns about the farm system when we dumped three top prospects for Hunter Pence? You weren't worried about the future when we acquired a lesser player with less years of control? Yes, at some point all the reset button pushing *does* catch up. What makes me somewhat question the sincerity of your belief here is that you don't think it already has.

Anyway, this is all moot because it has no chance of happening. Which, one suspects, is why you're saying it would be a bad thing anyway.

Jack: I wasn't a huge fan of the Pence trade for similar reasons. Obviously though Stanton has way more upside than Pence did.

Also, I think there are far more than 3 outcomes of a Stanton trade.

Additionally, I don't think reset button pushing has caught up to us yet. It is close though.

TTI, interesting point about the reset button.

I'm not sure it's as close as you think. Do there appear to be any Chase Utleys or Jimmy Rollins in the minors right now?

No, but let's recall a little history:

I distinctly remember the articles on Rollins as he was making his way up the system, and while I will concede he was highly touted, no one was talking about him being a future MVP. And as touted as Utley was, no one was talking about him becoming the second best player in baseball, which is what he was for about 4 - 5 years. For that matter, no one was drooling over Albert Pujols on draft day either as he was passed over by EVERY TEAM IN MLB twelve times - he was picked in the 13th round.

My point is that prospects flame out, andvance slowly, and sometimes make quantum breakouts and get on the radar - sometimes those breakouts stick, sometimes not. Who on this board was talking about Darin Ruf in February last year? No one - not one poster. Who here mentioned Roman Quinn as a possible future SS?

That's not to knock anyone's scouting skills, but even the professional scouts and player development people get it wrong more often than not.

My point simply is that the perception of the Phils prospects could change in one season - grant you, for the good or the bad - so I think it might be a little premature to be talking about reset buttons.

With all the money coming off the books next season, maybe they let Utley walk and make a play for Cano? If one of Ruf or Brown can earn a regular job this Spring that could change things a bit as well.

So let's see. It's going to be fun to watch no matter what happens.

kind of embarassing that BL has went a full day with this joke of a headline. I feel like i'm on bleacher report.

I know it isn't going to happen, but I think if you can get Stanton, you go for it. Getting a guy like him would probably change the FO's whole rebuilding/tooling model.

lorecore: Make a suggestion then. I hate posts like yours.

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