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Wednesday, February 20, 2013


Answers the question on who will be the Opening Day starter (Hamels).

Antonio Bastardo will also make bullpen

Iceman: "As soon as I saw rolo ask BAP to explain why he didn't like the equivalency calculator, his using Ruf as an example was about as predictable as the sun coming up tomorrow morning."

I didn't pick Ruf as an example. Rolo was the one who plugged his numbers into the equivalency table. I just responded to his post.

Rolo: There may well be minor league equivalency calculators that take age into account. But the one you linked to did not. It just asks you to plug in the guy's league & his numbers, but not his age. There's no way it could take something into account if it doesn't even know about it.

Fun with major league equivalency calculations (based on the player's last full minor league season):

Mike Trout: .238/.327/.334
Ryan Howard: .214/.268/.398
Bryce Harper: .229/.302/.316

Buster Posey: .287/.356/.368 (based on combined 2009/2010 stats at AAA)

Albert Pujols: .223/.261/.298

*If player played in more than 1 league, I used the league where he had the most ABs, and used only his numbers from that league.

"Of the relievers scheduled to pitch this weekend, only Horst and De Fratus are likely to make the Opening Day 25-man roster."

Corey, what about Bastardo?

Well, for al of you folks who think the window is closing, Cole Hamels begs to differ:

As to the thread topic, Halladay, Lee and Hamels are all deserving of the honor of starting on opening day.

Charlie should just draw straws.

And... Utley is going to play in ST... phinalee!

Anyone hear any good racist jokes lately? I'm writing a best man speech.



Why did I think that the Phils released J. C. Ramirez?

He was put on waivers but no other team claimed him.

fake dpat > fake seidman

I originally thought they should have one of the top 3 starters pitch the home opener (4th game of season) for ceremonial purposes - but then I realized the first 3 are vs ATL.

Can't afford to not set up the aces vs the Braves if you can, even if it is April.

I thought I saw a graphic on CSN where Kendrick has better numbers than Halladay in Atlanta.

I'll take my chances with the inferior Roy Halladay.

BAP: Well, the Ryan Howard numbers look pretty accurate at least.

fake dpat >>> fake seidman

Kendrick is a braves killer but I gotta believe they will send the 3 aces against them. BUT that means Kendrick will get the Home Opener!!!! I find that pretty funny. But I also think Kendrick is poised to have a career year.
Kendrick goes 3.5 era, 15-6 this season in 28 starts. 1.3 whip in 2013

Kendrick pitching the homeowner isn't nearly as odd as the opponent. The home opener is against the Kansas City Royals? What genius thought that up?

The rivalry still burns since the Phils beat the Royals in the 80 World Series. The fanbases have been asking for this for 30+years.

As a pretty consistent Opening Day attendee, I like the twist of an obscure opponent.

Royals on Opening Day? Reason #78 why Interleague play has worn out its welcome. I would much rather see another NL team including Dodgers, Giants, Cards, etc.

After April 2, there are only two off days in April. That seems fewer than other years.
We won't be skipping Lannan's turn very often, if at all.

GBrett, thanks for the link!

IMO, this gives us a little insight as to who has the inside track for a bullpen job.

From the article:

'Nine players (Phillippe Aumont, Pettibone, Joe Savery, Justin De Fratus, Freddy Galvis, Cesar Hernandez, Dom Brown, John Mayberry Jr. and Revere) agreed to 2013 major league contracts."

"We won't be skipping Lannan's turn very often, if at all."

So? Why would you want to wear out HLH early in the season? Lannan is here to keep them in games and eat 180 - 200 innings. If he pitches to his history he'll do exactly that.

I guess I'm the only one that truly wanted Braves-killer KK against the RH bats in that lineup, saving Doc for the home opener.

Moffss, if Kyle kendrick goes 15 - 6 with a 3.50 ERA - and the team is relatively healthy - they'll beat the Braves and press the Nationals for the division title right up until the end of the season.

Iceman, makes sense to me.

KK lifetime vs. Braves: 7 - 1 with a 2.86 ERA.

Yeah, BB. The last Royals game I attended was game 6. I've said it before, in the old days interleague play would have been great. I rarely got to see great AL players like Yaz and Kaline etc. Your only chance was on the Saturday game of the week on NBC or in the WS. It would have been cool to get to see them in person. Now we get to see everyone in the major leagues and even some minor leaguers. And with the whole DH dilemma and the scheduling situation, interleague play isn't just unnecessary, it's actually unfair.

Heyward and Freeman (LH) are arguably the Braves best bats.

I don't much care who starts the home opener, but a pitcher's career record against a particular team is one of the more meaningless stats that people throw around. Besides the small sample sizes, there's the fact that teams change composition from year to year. Since last season alone, the Braves have turned over 1/3 of their lineup.

lorecore: that's two bats. Other than Juan Francisco, the rest of their lineup is RH.

I don't buy that there isn't a mental component to succeeding against a certain team. We've seen pitchers dominate the Phils over the years no matter who is in the lineup. Kendrick has succeeded through a lot of Atlanta roster turnover. And he's got a 2.45 career ERA at Turner Field. He pitches well in Atlanta for whatever reasons.

I mean, it isn't a huge deal. Pitching Doc is never a bad thing. But throwing Kendrick instead and holding Doc til the home opener would have been some rare outside the box thinking from the coaches that would actually be a smart move given what his numbers are. It would put Kendrick in a better position to succeed.

rolo: "Lannan is here to keep them in games and eat 180 - 200 innings. If he pitches to his history he'll do exactly that."

True. And, given his overall track record, I would agree that he has a better than 50-50 chance of doing exactly that. I do, however, think you are significantly underestimating the possibility that he could be awful. For one thing, all finesse, back-end starters possess the inherent risk of turning suddenly awful. For another, Lannan didn't even pitch in the majors last year and he pitched poorly in the minors. I don't know if they have a major league equivalency calculator for pitchers but, if they do, I'm pretty sure a 4.30 ERA and a 1.439 WHIP in a pitcher's league would translate to some pretty ugly major league numbers.

bap, I agree with your post, but still require an explanation as to why the phenomenon occurs.

Maybe it's because Turner Field is a pitcher's park?

KK's lifetime ERA at Turner is 2.45 in 44 IP. Yep, not a huge sample size, but it's second to the Zen in number of innings he's pitched in any ballpark.

New thread.

In contrast, the Royals have Hosmer, Moustakas, Gordon and Getz all from the left side, and have a LF in Lough they can put in the lineup to stack five lefties against Kendrick at home.

With McCann out, the Braves have very little options to use more than three LHB against Kendrick, with starters in Upton, Upton, Uggla, Simmons and Laird that are basically everyday guys. So you're putting Kendrick in a stadium where he's had success in his career, against a lineup comprised of 5 RHB + the pitcher.

Starting Kendrick is the right move here, even before you factor in Halladay starting the home opener. It puts him in the best position to succeed.

I'm glad the Phillies are fielding another dynamic starting rotation, as that always seems to be able to get them over offensive slumps the last few years. I hope they can put it all together after the off-year of 2012, and am glad I'll be able to catch a bunch of the games here in Denver. I love my new DISH Game Finder app, and with the push of a few buttons I can have my DVR find any and all games available to watch on TV. I work a hectic schedule at DISH, so being able to save time finding games is a huge bonus. I can also set reminders for upcoming games, get up-to-the-minute box scores from the rest of the league, and schedule recordings for upcoming games! I love the Rockies too, but I'll always be a Phillies fan at heart!

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