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Tuesday, February 19, 2013


Kratz and quintero will be adequate until Chooch gets back. Upside is that Chooch will be rested and may not need as many days off. Just need a solid defensive catcher

Jack: To answer your question from the last thread: yeah, Mayberry's considerably better than a hypothetical replacement player. His WAR, as you said, was 0.4 last year. For a stat where a 3.0 rating is celebrated as a good year, I'd say a 0.4 difference is pretty significant.

Besides, Mayberry achieved that 0.4 WAR with more than half of his starts coming at 1st base & the corner OF positions. If he played a full season at CF, his WAR would go up just by virtue of playing a full season at CF. I mean . . . I realize this point is sort of circular but that's because WAR itself is sort of circular: if you move a replacement player to a new position which he can play even semi-competently, then he's no longer a replacement player.

Kratz isn't your man if solid defense is the goal. His arm is pretty awesome, but thats about the only thing he does well.

Some embarassing past balls last year.

BAP: Ok, but also consider that if Mayberry became the full-time starting CF, someone else would have to step in to fill his previous role. That person would be either Delmon Young, or maybe someone like one of the non-roster invitees like Jermaine Mitchell or Joe Mather.

Those guys are replacement-level players or below who are now getting playing time who weren't before when Revere was healthy.

bap: Mayberry has the potential to be better than the hypothetical replacement player, but he sure wasn't in 2012.

And you are wrong about his WAR/switch to CF. Mayerry is a stop-gap CF, so a full season of CF would expose his defensive shortcomings and be negatively reflected as such.

Remember, the difference between starter and replacement level isn't measuring the difference between a starter and his likely backup if he got hurt.

It's measuring the difference between the starter and the 26th man who would be called up to replace him on the roster.

Jack, you're obfuscating and trying to change the subject (are you a lawyer like bap?).

The conversation was about Revere's replacement, Mayberry, not someone else's.

Hey look at that. Someone moving the goalposts in an argument.

Jack: "It's measuring the difference between the starter and the 26th man who would be called up to replace him on the roster."

In real life, Yes. In fake fangraphs WAR world, no its not, its all compared to the hypothetical replacement level player, which has nothing to do with the actual player being called up.

Jack: Point taken -- although I'm not ready to concede that Jermaine Mitchell is a replacement level player. In fact, I can totally see myself vociferously arguing for his call-up at some point this year.

I think what I was doing was actually re-setting the goalposts to where they were supposed to be. BAP was complaining that WAR didn't properly measure something that I don't think it ever purported to measure.

Replacement-level refers to the estimated level of player whom any team could call up from the minors or grab off waivers for the minimum salary. It doesn't refer to the person who would likely take that player's ABs and innings who is already on the major-leage roster. If that's your complaint, then that's fine, but that's not what WAR is claiming to measure.

WAR is measured against a baseline of a player who should be paid about $0 on the open market.

If a guy who produces at a level worth a $15 salary gets injured, and you replace him with a guy who plays at a level worth a $10 salary, then of course the guy only produced $5 worth of wins relative to his ACTUAL replacement. But he produced $15 worth of VALUE, because you have to pay his replacement $10.

"Jack, you're obfuscating and trying to change the subject (are you a lawyer like bap?)."

He neither obfuscated nor changed the point. He made the point that, if Mayberry replaced Revere, someone would have to replace Mayberry -- and that person would come from AAA. And, by the way, can we dispense with the gratuitously nasty (and grossly misinformed) remarks about lawyers? I mean, I like lawyer jokes as much as anyone. But the wholesale defamation of an entire profession does nothing to advance your argument & makes you look like a first-class jackass. There are MANY lawyers and law students on this site who don't appreciate it.

Hates curveballs more - Kratz or Cerrano?

I'm impressed with the amount of times that the word "obfuscate" has been used on BL in the past week.

Too many damn lawyers here (no offense to lawyers). ;)

Lawyers complaining about wholesale defamation on a sports site. First World Problems for sure. =)

Too. Many. Emoticons.


Look, any other WAR issues aside, people need to remember it's a counting stat. You can't really use it for bench players unless you normalize it with WAR/game or WAR/PA or something.

fumphis: That's why I made sure to note that Mayberry accumulated almost 500 PAs over 149 games last season, and played 1000 innings in the field. He was a bench player that played basically the load of a full-time starter.

johnnys, LOL!

bap, I have numerous attorneys in my family, some immediate, and bust their chops all the time.

They take it in the spirit in which it's meant.

Deal with it.

Yo, new thread!

Kratz had better pick It up they are not satisfied with his hitting. Joseph should be the back up to Kratz while Chooch Is sitting. What would be great If they had a new front office with a clue.

TJ belongs at LV. He needs to play every day and learn how to hit.

Where's the love for this guy? He was possibly the best player on this team the 2nd half of the season and was clutch. I think he was on fire to start and that probably will not be the guy we see for an entire year but to say that pitchers figured him out late is not fair either. He had a mild slump for the last few weeks of the season, it happens to everyone. The phils dont need Kratz to hit 280. All they need from him is good defense (which he provided), work well with the pitchers, and bring some pop with the bat (which he seems to have plenty of) If he hits over 260 its a bonus. Hopefully once Chooch comes back everyone settles into their roles nicely.

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