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Wednesday, February 20, 2013

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Maybe this is the year all the football players and track stars we drafted will learn how to play baseball!

Jason Donald was ranked that high?

It will be zero once we acquire Stanton :)

Well, assuming all thirty teams drafted and developed equally well, each team ough to have approximately 3.33 players on the top 100 list.

The Phillies essentially fall one short of that.

It's also an improvement, as they only had one on the list last year, May, who was part of the trade for Revere, who's also young and cost controlled for a few more years.

As I posted at the end of the last thread, it will be interesting to see how the prospects shake out this season.

No one, on this board or anywhere else, and probably not even in the Phillies organization, predicted the coming of breakout year Darin Ruf had in 2012. Now, Ruf may turn out to be a flash in the pan, but the point is that someone in the Phillies organization to a big step last season.

Here's BA's list of the Phillies' top 10 (published 12/17/12):


1. Jesse Biddle, lhp

2. Roman Quinn, ss

3. Tommy Joseph, c

4. Jon Pettibone, rhp

5. Adam Morgan, lhp

6. Ethan Martin, rhp

7. Cody Asche, 3b

8. Maikel Franco, 3b

9. Darin Ruf, 1b/of

10. Carlos Tocci, of

Were Ruf, Quinn ans Asche on this list last season? How much did the entire list turn over from the year before, and how many who were on the list the year before are now expected to make the big club (Aumont?)?

Also, look at the BA list of 2009 Phillies: How many potential superstars there?

Lastly, the fact that the Phillies have traded away a lot of players who are on this list for other teams or have, at the very least, made other big league clubs indicates to me that the Phillies must be doing something right when it comes to drafting and player development (though the focus on "toolsy" HS players has hurt them more recently).

Someone will surprise this season and crack the top 100.

Hey, let's have a BL prediction thread, where we each predict the breakout prospect for 2013.

I have my guy picked already...

Haven't been in any conversation here at all for a while. I did not post here yesterday & still don't appreciate someone impersonating me. If I have something to say I WILL BE THE ONE TO SAY IT! Not some jerk wanting to be me.

As far as Stanton, I'll believe when I see it. The rumor is probably just a story to deflect the truth about the poor job RAJ did on getting bats for the OF.

I would like to see Brody Colvin really harness his potential. He has top of the rotation stuff but has only shown flashes of it over the past 2 seasons. And he was listed on BA's top 100 list as recently as 2011.

"The rumor is probably just a story to deflect the truth about the poor job RAJ did on getting bats for the OF."

Blah, Blah Blah.

Dom, you've been on that schtick for 3 years running since Werth left. Give it a rest, unless you think they should have matched the Nats' offer to Werth?

bbeard: i think you are the first person to complain i don't post enough random topics.

re: top 100 list

This year they include grades, and only 6 times does the max grade apply to the top 100:

PIT Gerrit Cole's Fastball
MIN Miguel Sano's Power
MIN Byron Buxton's Speed
CIN Billy Hamilton's Speed
DET Bruce Rondon's Fastball
PHI Roman Quinn's Speed

I'm torn on this one. That seemed like the real DPatrone because he said something again about the outfield offense which has been his cause célèbre. However, he never once mentioned his anonymous source.

It's a toss up!

Rolo: I agree with you that some prospect(s) could bust out this season and change the dynamic of what we have in the minors. I was saying I think the reset pushing is close to hurting us because either this off-season or the next this team will need an influx of players and at this moment it doesn't appear like it might be there. That is why I have been for letting Ruf and Brown have the corner outfield spots this year and seeing what you have.

I predict a breakout year for prospect Mayberry.

Unless you are a top 5 prospect (well with the exception of Dom Brown) then you are can't miss at that point. Anyone from 5-100 are one in the same. They have had success at many levels but are hoping to stick in the bigs. There you go.

Joe D: Delmon Young.

Yes fattie Delmon is also an outlier.

there are many outliers, and your 5-100 comment is just as wrong.

Clearly 5-100 is an exaggeration but you can mull over numbers upon numbers and try to predict success for this guys but baseball has the highest flame out rate in all of professional sports.

Clearly 5-100 is an exaggeration but you can mull over numbers upon numbers and try to predict success for this guys but baseball has the highest flame out rate in all of professional sports.

Posted by: Joe D | Wednesday, February 20, 2013 at 11:05 AM

So going by your logic your original statement should've read "Anyone from 1-100 are one in the same."

Phils sign Joe Savery to mlb deal.

Thought'd he'd be a goner by now. Rest of names makes sense. Cesar Hernandez a lesser know name to make cut.

Someone posted a link to an article a couple weeks ago about the percentage of prospects that actually have an impact at the MLB level in terms of providing WAR.

IIRC only about 40% of pithers who are ranked in the top ten make the grade, and about 60% of the position players.

So 6 out of 10 pitchers turn out to have insignificant impact or are busts, and 4 out of 10 position players do the same.

IIRC.

"...baseball has the highest flame out rate in all of professional sports."


Perhaps that's because hitting a baseball is the hardest thing to do in any sport on the planet.

Having played I know, rolo. It's not an easy game by any stretch which is why you see so many guys going the PED route.

So those 40 and 60% numbers equate to things being essentially a toss-up when trying to see if a prospect is going to perform at the MLB level.

Technically, I believe they demonstrated on ESPN's Sports Science that the hardest thing to do in the Team Sports world is to stop a professional-level penalty kick in soccer/football, because you literally have to come to a decision before the player strikes the ball.

However, that situation definitely comes up less frequently than the ubiquitous "hit ball with stick."

1 through 100 are a tossup, except when they are accurate.

Oh hey someone's got jokes! YAY!

Redburb, that's it.

Thanks. I got the numbers slightly wrong for position players (bad memory, I guess), but it's interesting that almost 60% of the top 10 pitchers become busts.

I posted a comment about Rollins in the leadoff spot 2 times and it has evaporated into the internet thin air. Is the Rollins topic taboo here now and being intercepted by Manuel and his minions.

"Hey, let's have a BL prediction thread, where we each predict the breakout prospect for 2013."

I'm in.

My pick to be in next year's top 100: Maikel Franco.

My pick to emerge from obscurity, put up big numbers, inject himself into the prospect discussion, and prompt multiple Beerleaguer arguments about whether his numbers are legit or whether he's too old for his league: Cameron Rupp.

bap, my pick to emerge from obscurity: Colton Murray.

"[...] put up big numbers, inject himself [...]"

Mm hmm. If Rupp breaks out, some injections will definitely be involved.

I agree with BAP on Franco.

I think Zach Collier is a player that has a chance to have a "breakout" season and suddenly appear in people's considerations. He's still only going to be 22 and will likely be in AA, and he can play any OF position, he's shown solid enough plate discipline. You have to take a leap of faith that some power develops, of course, but if you didn't have to take a leap of faith somewhere he'd already be a legit prospect. I could see a breakout season showing some power in a hitter's park in Reading.

Of course, if he does break out, he will likely be traded for Jeff Franceour at the trade deadline. But hey, who's counting?

Jack: Zach Collier was one of the guys I thought about picking. Others I thought about picking: Kelly Duggan, Dylan Cozens, Andrew Pullin, and Mitch Walding.

rolo: Colton Murray is not a bad pick. He definitely meets the "obscurity" criterion. He also seems able to miss bats. And, since he has 3 years of major college experience, he's the kind of guy who could move quickly up the minor league food chain if he can put up some decent numbers early in the year.

BAP: good picks, Franco kind of broke out last year already tho.

In prospect ranking terms: Gabriel Lino - he's a toolsy, age appropriate catcher. The slightest performance out of him will shoot him up scout's lists.

In breakout performance terms: Chris Serritella - college 1B drafted last year. Could put up great numbers that will catch the BAP's off the world.

TTI~ Earlier today that was me. My views on this year's team are well-known. I'm as much of a die-hard, passionate phan as any. But I see the team for what I think it is, which is a non-playoff team.

Until something drastic happens, (and I don't envision, or am privy to anything happening) there really isn't much more for me to comment on. So I haven't been commenting & I'll leave it at that.

We should elminate 2012 draftees, they'd end up being everyone's picks.

Scratch Serritella, and I'll jump back on a buried bandwagon of the past: Guantlett Eldemire - drowned in injuries for so long until last year, jumped out of the gate in the first few weeks, and then just was horrible.

Shots of DPatrone, she in the zone.

lore - Best name in the system by far too.

re: header

pretty ironic that the last time a Phillie wasn't in the top 80 was a year that they had their best prospect of that whole time period(Rolen).

How far do you have to go back before finding a better product of the Phillies farm system than Scott Rolen anyway? Ryne Sandberg?

Rolen career bWAR: 66.6
Ryno career bWAR: 64.9

Ranking prospect is a crap shoot. Sure there are guys like Trout and Harper,but for every one of those there are 10 who may or may not make it. Others who come from no where.
No surprise if you've read previous posting: Maikel Franco will make Ashce a faint memory in the next year or 2.
.

jr, how dare you say that.

So Franco will rise from the Asches?

Joe - You said Top 5 are can't miss. That's incredibly ignorant considering the amount of Top 5 prospects have missed.


On another note, Keith Law said that the Phils are a system that can relaly make a leap if a few of the higher ceiling guys in the lower levels make big jumps this year.

RedBurb, you are stuck on the top 5 angle of my initial comment. The main point I'm trying to make is that it's just so unpredictable. I know many of you get your jollies on here by trying to find the next hidden gem so go ahead and have your fun. It's just not something that appeals to me given the amount of failures that have graces these lists.

So why even comment on prospects if they don't appeal to you?

They appeal to me in the sense that I hope many of the Phillies ones pan out but to try to guess and make lists seems like a fruitless endeavor.

One only need look at the 2009 prospect list to see how inexact this "science" is. The Phils have 4 guys who have amounted to a platoon OF, a marginal 5th starter, a backup catcher and a utility IF.

I'm hoping that "platoon OF" becomes a legitimate starter, but I'm not sure there's a whole lot of hope for the other three (I suppose Carrasco could get better).

It's funny... back in 2009, who on Beerleaguer would have rather traded away Kyle Kendrick and kept Carlos Carrasco?

That's a 100% improvement over last season.

"It's funny... back in 2009, who on Beerleaguer would have rather traded away Kyle Kendrick and kept Carlos Carrasco?"

That's a great point- though with the animosity towards Kendrick here, I bet there are still a few people that would have rather kept Carrasco.

What is depressing, though, is that BA has a strong tools bias and the Phillies organization does too. This suggests BA's scouts don't think much of the Phils ability to identify good tools prospects.

RedBurb: "Jason Donald was ranked that high?"

He was ranked way, way higher on Beerleaguer.

clout: i call BS. BA ranked him #69, and I'm sure most posters reacted as such.

I guess Jose Fernandez

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=fernan009jos

has enough pedigree that he thought he could get away with beaning Giancarlo Stanton.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/5434/giancarlo-stanton


That, or Jeffrey Loria told him to do it in retaliation for Stanton's "I'm pissed!" tweet. :)

lorecore: Go back and look. You were using a different screen name then. But you (as almost always) are wrong.

I looked and checked. you are wrong, no one ever suggested Donald be ranked higher than 69.

lorecore, what was yourold screen name?

There were plenty of folks on Beerleaguer back then who thought VERY highly of Jason Donald. To the point that he should have been our starting 3B years ago.

lorecore: I'm not talking about a number. I'm talking about how he was seen as a prospect on BL, which to my knowledge has no numbered ranking system, idiot: Everyday player, good-hitting shortstop at the MLB level. There was almost universal agreement.

KAS: "There were plenty of folks on Beerleaguer back then who thought VERY highly of Jason Donald."

Of course, and anyone who was posting here then knows that. lorecore is just being a dick, per usual.

"Everyday player, good-hitting shortstop at the MLB level"

What does being ranked the 69th best prospect in baseball entail? A bad hitter?

Clout - that is pretty much what I thought too but it didn't surprise me. The only really toolsey prospect who has amounted to anything was Singleton with lots of duds the past several drafts.

Hopefully a guy like Greene or Franco really show something thus year.

My argument is: one of top prospect outlets ranked a phillies prospect as the 69th best in the league.

Why would a beerleaguer poster who thinks Donald will be a starting 3B for their team in the future be so foolish for thinking such, if BA did too?

Or is clout that much smarter than BA as well, where he can mock both them and "beerleaguer" universally?

lorecore: "What does being ranked the 69th best prospect in baseball entail? A bad hitter?"

More often than not, yes. Just how many position prospects ranked #69 end up becoming everyday players or significant contributors as pitchers?

Not many. I'm surprised you don't know that.

Actually, I'm not surprised.

Not sure Singleton was considered "toolsy" in the Phillies draft history sense.

lorecore, what was your old screen name?

According to the article in the link RedBurb posted, a #69 prospect only has a 26% chance of making an impact. That basically one out of four.

rolo: used to be awh

clout: There are 8 starters on 30 MLB teams. You're going to tell me that being ranked #69 (or higher) doesn't imply that BA thinks a player is expected to be an everyday starter?

this convo has been a waste, since my first words "clout: I call BS" still apply.

Naaah, lorecore, I used to be awh (an all-caps "AWH" before that), as the long-timers here well know. But, since they brought THE RoLo back for a second helping, I took on the moniker as I did before.


What was yours?

lorecore: "There are 8 starters on 30 MLB teams. You're going to tell me that being ranked #69 (or higher) doesn't imply that BA thinks a player is expected to be an everyday starter?"

It implies nothing of the sort. Given the failure rate of prospects, there's no one remotely connected to BA who's stupid enough to think the 69th ranked prospect in a given year will end up being a starting position player or a significant pitcher.

This convo is indeed a waste of time because, as usual, you don't know what you're talking about.

Way too many people caught up in small pedantic points.

The issue is that the Phils don't have any high-ceiling positional prospects who will start the year at AA or above.

Looking back at some Feb 2009 threads, I only found GM Carson raving about Donald and Marson. Not much else. clout's position has stayed consistent.

Speaking of consistency, here's a comment from MG that proves he's been saying the same thing about Howard getting booed in April for at least five years running:

Ibanez may be a great guy who is very well-spoken and articulate but if he struggles out of the gate in April my bet is that he gets booed regardless. Add Howard to that list too if he struggles at the plate with a ton of Ks in April.
Posted by: MG | Thursday, February 26, 2009 at 03:57 PM


I'm so ticked. I missed the top 100 by *that* much amigos!

Iceman - And Howard hasn't gotten out to a slow start in April since then and I haven't said that every year.

MG- I'm just messing with you.

The ironic thing is that April/May/June 2009 was Ibanez's best time with the Phils, and he got booed the following two Aprils (from what I remember) for sucking out of the gate.

So let me get this straight...awh is now posting as rolo and locore. But rolo and locore do not know about one another.

Somebody prescribe that man some meds!!!

Wes, no. lorecore was just trying to be cute. I temporarily adopt the "rolo" moniker whenever THE RoLo is in the organization. He's just being a douche because he's too embarrassed to tell you his previous handle. Probably used either "Sir Alden", "mvptommyd", "phlipper" or some other moniker either in the PPP or Sir Alden Trio.

Trust me, if he's traded or released, I'll go back to being plain ol' "awh".

The

Wes, I also have added

"Founder, JRoll in the 6-Hole Club"

from time to time.

awh/rolo/Founder, JRoll in the 6-Hole Club--

I know locore is not you. I was just joking. But you are verging on multiple personality disorder, you might still want to consider some meds (again, just joking).

Looking through one thread from Feb. 2009, no one appears to be particularly high on Donald. People were fighting over what position he would eventually end up at--some saying his arm wouldn't work at 3rd, others saying he didn't have the glove for SS or 2nd. One random poster expressed optmism at his power potential, and MG quickly shot him down. Multiple people saw him as a future utility guy (which is what he is, by the way--he's basically a new Eric Bruntlett).

MG did make the prediction that Donald could out-hit Bruntlett, but I fail to see how that qualifies as "thinking highly" of the guy.

So, as usual, Clout is full of it.

Posting on here under one name already makes me feel like I don't have much of a life. If I ever decide to post under multiple names then I'm going to need counseling.

I will cop to this much: back in 2008, when Donald was going hog-wild at AA, and Pedro Feliz was stinking it up something fierce as our starting 3rd baseman, I do remember thinking that the Phillies should move Donald to 3rd, on the theory that his bat was surely better than Feliz's.

I'm pretty sick of the posters here who had opinions in 2009.

Clout hates opinions. Clout likes mirrors.

Wes, I'll make it easy for you...

2009 Spring Training

If I recall correctly, I really wanted Cairo to make the team over Bruntlett because I felt Bruntlett was essentially useless except he could play a lot of positions (versatility).

Turned out Cairo was the better option & Bruntlett had a horrendous year at the plate and the field after a poor spring training.

Interesting exchange from Dec. 2007 on Jason Donald:

[unnamed regular poster] wrote: "If he can again put up good numbers at AA this year, I could see him replacing Bruntlett before season's end. I could also seem him as a viable third base option by 2009."

clout wrote: "[unnamed regular poster]: Donald was 22 in single-A last year. That's old. He also struck out 109 times in 490 ABs between low and high A. Not good. I'll be quite shocked if he turns into anything more than a utility guy."

Donald was one of those guys who did a couple of things okay in the minors but there was nothing that really stood out.

Didn't hit HRs, didn't have the range to be a good SS or the hands/reactions to play 3B, and was a decent AVG guy but not a .300+ hitter in the minors.

Last year he really struggled offensively but the first two years he was adequate:

.273/.328/.386 (.713 OPS or 100 OPS+) with 5 HRs in 436 PAs.

Problem hasn't been his bat at the MLB level but his defensive shortcomings in the INF. He's been below average/poor even at 2B.

MG - But Bruntlett turned an unassisted triple play in 09! That alone made him worth being on the team.

I know my own writing style when I see it.

Fair enough...

Re: what being ranked #69 means

I looked at 2000-2004 BA rankings, position players ranked #69 +/- 5. The list is available from http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html

31 position players meet these criteria. I count 14 regulars among them: Cesar Izturis, Mike Lamb, Carlos Guillen, Marcus Giles, Brandon Inge, Carl Crawford, Juan Rivera, Jayson Werth, Lyle Overbay, John Buck, Jose Lopez, Alberto Callaspo, Adam LaRoche, and Jason Bay. A handful of others had a few years with semi-regular roles (including Gabe Gross, Wily Mo Pena, Felix Pie, Eric Munson). I've never heard of a whole bunch of them.

My point: Jason Donald is pretty close to the median outcome for a #69 prospect.

Interesting study I just ran across: http://www.clinchem.org/content/50/2/456.full

So is it possible that Galvis didn't, in fact, use PEDs - he just has a Brazilian sweetie and a bad lawyer?

Normally I'd dismiss the possibility as bunk, but considering how little his "alleged" (in quotes to indicate that I'm not claiming he didn't use) PED use availed him...

Heyman says Brown's name came up in trade talks with the Astros this winter.

Who the hell do they have in the org that would be worth a chip like Brown? Was Amaro trying to right a wrong and get some guys back from the Pence trade?

Iceman - Probably just got mentioned in the W. Lopez trade talks and the Astros were just checking on him.

No big deal.

Phils will get to face Donald again this year too.

He came over in the Choo trade and is the slated utility infielder for the Reds.

We still don't know that the acquisition of Pence was a "wrong;" we'll have to wait and see if Singleton, Santana, and Cosart really turn into the Hall of Famers you seem to think they are.

I'd guess that Brown was in play for Wilton Lopez; the Dominator's stock has slipped so low that I can easily see Amaro offering him straight-up for Lopez and then switching to Cloyd/Valle when the Astros asked for two pieces. Brown-for-Lopez, incidentally, is a trade I would have done had Wilton been healthy--would have kept us from having to sign Adams, and thus allowed us to make up for the loss of Brown by signing someone like Swisher for RF.

Jack: Yep, February was the only month Donald was discussed. As I recall you also thought he'd be an everyday player. Guess you forgot about that part.

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