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Adams impresses; Howard continues torrid spring

Mike Adams made his first appearance as a Phillie in Thursday's 10-5 win over the Braves, giving up a hit and picking up a swinging strikeout in an inning of work in relief of Cole Hamels.

Adams appears to be healthy and that is a tremendous sign for the Phillies, who desperately needed a qualified eighth-inning man. Most relievers are fungible. A Chad Durbin, for example, isn't a meaningful upgrade over a Justin De Fratus.

Mike Adams does not fit into that box. He is a difference-making bullpen piece that could have literally made the difference last season between 81-81 and 85-77 or so. I'm not talking WAR, because WAR isn't the ideal metric for pitchers in general or relievers in specific. I'm talking about the difference between Adams pitching an eighth inning and Chad Qualls doing it. When Qualls releases the ball he hopes to avoid hard contact. When Adams releases the ball the hitter hopes it doesn't cut into the skinny part of his bat.

Adams made 243 appearances from 2009-12. He had a 1.84 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. In 109 of those 243 appearances he allowed no baserunners. In 92 of them he went at least one inning and allowed no baserunners.

Know how many times a Phillies reliever went at least one inning last season without allowing a baserunner? 93, in 428 total appearances. So one out of every five times a Phillies reliever entered a game last season, he pitched a perfect inning. Adams has done that in 38% percent of his appearances the last four years.

Howard stays hot

Two more hits for Ryan Howard -- a double and a homer -- raised his spring line to .533/.556/.933. He's 8-for-15 with three doubles, a homer and two walks.

The most impressive part of Howard's Thursday was that the first-inning double came against a lefty in Paul Maholm, and the fifth-inning homer was off Craig Kimbrel. Howard is 4-for-6 so far against southpaws.

Howard has played every game so far this spring. Just because he was injured last season doesn't make him an injury concern. The Achilles looks fully healed, and while it's just the spring, it's encouraging to see Howard and Chase Utley each hitting .500 or better through a handful of games, with Domonic Brown showing real signs of improvement as well.

The Phillies play the Yankees tomorrow at 1:05 p.m. in Tampa. The game will be on MLB Network, but not live.

All eyes on Mike Adams Thursday

The prized possession of the Phillies' offseason, Mike Adams, will make his spring debut Thursday against the Braves, according to CSNPhilly.com. It is the first of approximately eight spring training appearances Adams will make.

Surgery to correct Adams' thoracic outlet syndrome appears to have done the trick. Erik Kratz referred to Adams as "too ready right now," and Adams added that "to be able to pitch with my true stuff is exciting."

If Adams is back in one piece, it will be exciting for Phillies fans as well. The Phils had the second-worst eighth-inning ERA in baseball last season and blew 13 leads in that frame alone. To address it, they brought in the game's best setup man since 2009. Over the last four seasons Adams had a 1.84 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, .190 opponents' batting average and 9.3 strikeouts per nine. And that includes last year, a down year when Adams was unhealthy and "felt like [he] was throwing a shot put."

We'll get a first look at Adams' truly devastating cutter today at 1:05 p.m. on The Comcast Network. Cole Hamels gets his second start.

The lineup is a possible Opening Day preview, minus the DH:

1) Ben Revere, CF
2) Jimmy Rollins, SS
3) Chase Utley, 2B
4) Ryan Howard, 1B
5) Michael Young, 3B
6) Domonic Brown, RF
7) Darin Ruf, LF
8) Laynce Nix, DH
9) Erik Kratz, C

Defense an issue early in camp; Brown still raking

A throwing error by Freddy Galvis and a miscue by John Mayberry in right field cost the Phillies three unearned runs through four innings Wednesday in Fort Myers.

The Phillies have committed eight errors so far this spring to lead all NL teams. Only the Blue Jays have committed more, but they've played one more game.

Opposing baserunners are also 7-for-7 stealing off Phillies catchers, making them the most run-on team so far. Erik Kratz has allowed five of those SBs.

Errors don't tell the whole story of a defense, but it's worth mentioning that these miscues don't even take into account Michael Young's shaky play at the hot corner.

Only two teams have allowed more unearned runs than the Phillies' five this spring. It's a bit disturbing, given the defensive concerns most already had for this team and Charlie Manuel's insistence that the Phillies must improve their D to compete this season.

Last year the Phils gave up 62 unearned runs, which was about middle of the pack. It was, though, more than double the number of unearned runs they allowed in 2011, when they had a major-league low 28.

Going around the diamond, the Phillies don't have to worry much about their defense at second base, shortstop or centerfield, though Ben Revere does have a weak arm. There are well-documented defensive issues in the infield and outfield corners, with third base being the biggest worry.

But catcher is also an area to watch in April. Kratz threw out 15 of 33 would-be base-stealers last season, but he also committed three passed balls, just two fewer than Carlos Ruiz in 513 fewer innings behind the plate.

Another XBH for Brown

In three plate appearances out of the three-hole through five innings against the Twins, Brown was 1-for-2 with an RBI double, a walk and three runs.

He barely missed his second homer to dead center in as many days when he doubled in Revere against Jared Burton in the sixth inning.

Through five spring games, Brown is fourth in the majors in slugging percentage, with 11 total bases in nine at-bats. Five of his six hits since last Friday have been doubles or homers.

Dom Brown is off to a pretty good start

Brown hit a solo homer in Tuesday's 4-3 win over the Yankees that Jimmy Rollins called "the longest ball I've ever seen hit [at Brighthouse Field]." In four spring games, Brown is 3-for-7 with two homers. Going back to the intrasquad game last Friday, he's 5-for-9 with two homers and two doubles.

It could be nothing, or it could be the start to something substantive in Brown's make-or-break year. He credited a tip first-year assistant hitting coach Wally Joyner gave him early in camp to speed his swing up. Jim Salisbury describes the adjustment Joyner and Brown made.

This is shaping up to be Brown's first full spring. He played six exhibition games in each of the last two seasons before going down with different right hand injuries.

In 2010 he hit .417 with a pair of doubles and homers in 11 spring games. It was the last time he started his season off right, and it was the best season of his pro career. He hit .327 with a .980 OPS for Reading and Lehigh Valley and earned his first call-up to the bigs.

It's four spring games. But Brown's fast start and Joyner's impact on a fellow lefty are positive developments early in camp. The one thing we all seem to subconsciously count out when looking at the future of these Phillies is Brown realizing his potential at 25. If it happens and the Phillies go into the 2013 season with six healthy, capable bats in the lineup (and seven when Carlos Ruiz returns), a recovered Mike Adams and Hamels-Lee-Halladay, you'll regret not taking the over at 84½.

Hideous spring debuts for Papelbon & Stutes

Jonathan Papelbon allowed six runs and two homers in 2/3 of an inning, and Michael Stutes didn’t fare much better the next inning as the Phillies lost to the Tigers, 10-1, Monday in Clearwater.

The results don’t matter, but neither reliever looked sharp in their first game action of 2013. Papelbon’s first six pitches were a first-pitch single, a first-pitch two-run homer and a four-pitch walk. After striking out Danny Worth, Austin Jackson and Torii Hunter singled and Miguel Cabrera hit a three-run homer that broke a window somewhere in Cuba. After striking out Victor Martinez, Papelbon issued another four-pitch walk and was yanked.

While Papelbon’s struggles were more severe, Stutes’ were more worrisome. The 26-year-old is coming off shoulder surgery and he looked downright awful on Monday.

Stutes’ day went like this: four-pitch walk, flyout to warning track, flyout to warning track, four-pitch walk, two-run triple, flyout to warning track.

He spoke to Gregg Murphy on TCN an inning later and recognized how poorly he pitched. Barring several injuries, Stutes figures to start the season in Triple-A.

The Phillies scored their first run in the fourth inning, when Yuniesky Betancourt singled and Chase Utley and Michael Young walked to load the bases with no outs. Ryan Howard hit a sac fly, but Carlos Ruiz grounded into a double play to end the threat.

The Phillies had just five singles on the day -- two from Howard, and one apiece by Yuniesky Betancourt, Josh Fields and Freddy Galvis. Darin Ruf looked overmatched on a seventh-inning strikeout and is 0-for-8 through three games.

Cliff Lee on the hill; Utley batting second vs. DET

Cliff Lee makes his first spring training start this afternoon in Clearwater against the Tigers, who the Phillies tied 5-5 on Sunday. If the first two games were any sign, Lee will get two innings like Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels.

Phillies vs. Tigers -- TCN, 1:05 p.m.

Hamels and Halladay combined to allow one run and two baserunners in four impressive innings over the weekend. Now it's Lee's turn to shake off the winter rust and finally turn the page on an incredibly unlucky 2012 season.

Lee received 3.2 runs of support per game last season, the fourth-fewest in all of baseball to Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez and Jeff Samardzija. He won six games despite registering the second-best K/BB ratio of his career and leading the majors in pretty much every category pertaining to control: walk percentage (3.3%), first-pitch strikes (71.6%, only pitcher over 70%), balls thrown (915 in 3,099 pitches, or 29.5%).

That balls thrown stat is insane. Lee threw 915 and Ross Detwiler was next on the list at 917. But Lee threw 558 more pitches than Detwiler. Among pitchers who threw 3,000 pitches last season, only Lee and Jordan Zimmermann threw fewer than 1,000 balls. (And Zimmermann was at 996, so he barely qualifies.)

Lee has a fun (translation: not fun) defensive alignment behind him. Have a look at the lineup:

1) Yuniesky Betancourt, SS
2) Chase Utley, 2B
3) Michael Young, 3B
4) Ryan Howard, 1B
5) Darin Ruf, LF
6) Carlos Ruiz, DH
7) John Mayberry, RF
8) Erik Kratz, C
9) Michael Martinez, CF

Ben Revere needs days off and these games obviously don't matter, but what more the Phillies can possibly learn about Martinez is beyond anyone's comprehension.

The interesting part of this lineup (vs. LHP Drew Smyly) is Utley batting second. I explain it in further detail here, but suffice it say Utley belongs in the two-hole. He has great career numbers with no outs and a man on first, second or third, and with one out and nobody on. Those are the types of situations he'd face batting second, a spot that best suits a high-OBP run producer like Utley.

It also splits up he and Ryan Howard and creates situations where your best hitter is batting directly behind either Jimmy Rollins or Revere. Though if Michael Young bats third, there will also be at least a half-dozen first-inning GIDPs with no outs and runners on first and third.

A top-four of Revere-Utley-Rollins-Howard would make a lot of sense. Rollins led off an inning 271 times last season. Utley, predominantly batting third, averages 92 such situations per season. That's a 3-to-1 difference that would have Jimmy leading off less and batting with men on more. Also gives you a ton of speed at the top.

Howard, Halladay impress in 5-5 tie with Tigers

Roy Halladay allowed just one hit over two innings -- a solo homer to Victor Martinez in the Phillies' 5-5 tie Sunday with the Tigers in Lakeland. A rival scout told CSN's Jim Salisbury that Halladay looked "very good," and new Tigers outfielder Torii Hunter went a step further in his praise. 

In Doc's first start of the calendar year, he threw five pitches in a 1-2-3 top of the first. Austin Jackson flew out on the first pitch, Hunter struck out swinging at three straight, then Miguel Cabrera grounded out in an untelevised game.

Ryan Howard greeted Justin Verlander with a double in the second and Freddy Galvis doubled to drive in a run later in the inning.

Halladay struck Prince Fielder out on three pitches to start his second and final inning of work, making it eight pitches, eight strikes, four outs. He then threw his first two balls to fall behind the returning Martinez and gave up the homer to center.

Howard later doubled again. Domonic Brown homered off reliever Al Alburquerque. If you count the intrasquad game Friday, Brown had a 4-for-6 weekend with a homer and two doubles.

Some interesting tidbits from Salisbury and the box score of a game only those in Florida saw...

● Torii Hunter told Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly that the Phillies were the first team to contact him this winter, and that he considered signing here.

Hunter would have been a good fit in right field. He might have actually changed the Phils' plans in center if they believed he could for two years play the position where he won nine straight (deserved) Gold Gloves from 2001-09. 

● Prospects Tommy Joseph and Tyson Gillies played. Gillies started in center field, batted second and went 1-for-3 with a strikeout and a double off Octavio Dotel. Joseph was 0-for-2 replacing Carlos Ruiz, who hit third.

● Out of the 'pen, Antonio Bastardo pitched a scoreless inning, J.C. Ramirez was hit around, and Rodrigo Lopez tossed three scoreless frames late in the game.

Schwimer shipped to Blue Jays

The Phillies have traded 27-year-old reliever Michael Schwimer, originally scheduled to pitch Saturday, to Toronto for minor league first baseman Art Charles, according to CSNPhilly.com's Jim Salisbury.

Schwimer, a 6-foot-8 righthander, had only an outside shot of making the team out of spring training. The Phillies' bullpen is believed to have just three openings after accounting for Jonathan Papelbon, Mike Adams, Antonio Bastarto and Chad Durbin. One spot will almost certainly go to a lefty. The other openings will likely go to two of Mike Stutes, Phillippe Aumont, Justin De Fratus and B.J. Rosenberg.

Appearing in 35 games for the Phils last year, Schwimer compiled a 4.46 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, 36 strikeouts and 16 walks in 34.1 innings. He first appeared with the big club in 2011 after being drafted in the 14th round of the draft in 2008.

Art Charles, a 22-year-old first baseman, was drafted three times -- in 2008, 2009 and 2010 -- before signing with the Blue Jays after they selected him in the 20th round in '10.

Charles split time last year at Rookie ball and Low A levels of the minors. He posted a .236/.381/.528 line in 64 games between two clubs, also smacking 15 doubles, four triples, 13 RBIs and knocking in 34 runs. He struck out 74 times and walked 46 times in 265 plate appearances.

Utley, Howard in lineup for exhibition opener

The day for baseball is finally here. It's been 143 days since the Phillies last took the field against another team, but the long wait is over as the Grapefruit League schedule begins today.

Phillies vs. Astros -- 1 p.m., TCN

Chase Utley will play his first official spring training game since 2010 today against the Astros. Ryan Howard is also in the lineup behind starter Cole Hamels.

Here's a look at the Phillies' lineup:

1) Ben Revere -- CF
2) Michael Young -- 3B
3) Chase Utley -- 2B
4) Ryan Howard -- 1B
5) Darin Ruf -- LF
6) Domonic Brown -- RF
7) Laynce Nix -- DH
8) Yuniesky Betancourt -- SS
9) Erik Kratz -- C

Revere will get plenty of chances to lead off this spring with Jimmy Rollins playing in the World Baseball Classic.

The Phils will face Astros right-hander Lucas Harrell. A calm, good-natured fellow, that Harrell. 

Halladay hopes spring training success translates

Beginning with their Grapefruit League opener Saturday afternoon against the Astros, Roy Halladay wants the Phillies to focus on winning this spring, believing it could spark a much-needed strong start.

In 2012, the Phillies finished with their worst spring training record in three years at 14-16, and it was a sign of things to come as the club also put forth their first losing April since 2007 and missed the postseason for the first time since 2006.

Much more concerning than the team's record, of course, were the injuries to Chase Utley and Ryan Howard to begin the season — but both players, neither participating in Grapefruit League play, likely could have helped improve the Phils' 14-16 spring mark, and, undoubtedly, their dreadful 37-50 first half.

"I know we're going to have regular players go out for two or three innings and starters (pitchers) going three innings, but I want to win games," Halladay told CSNPhilly.com's Jim Salisbury on Thursday. "I want to win games down here and I think that will translate into the season."

One of the game's fiercest competitors, Halladay's we-gotta-win attitude should surprise no one, but it does raise the question: Are spring training and regular season records correlated?

In the three years Halladay has been with the Phillies, at least, they have been. Take a look:

2012: 14-16 Grapefruit League, 11-12 April, 81-81 overall
2011: 21-14, 18-8, 102-60
2010: 15-12, 12-10, 97-65

In 2011, the Phillies finished with their best April record since they began 17-5 in 1993, and it jumpstarted them to the Majors' best mark and a franchise-best 102 wins. In 2010, a good spring led to a good first month, and again the club finished with the best record in baseball.

Go back further than that, and no, the Phillies' Grapefruit League and regular season success don't correspond. (The Phils finished the spring 12-18 and 13-19 in 2008 and 2009, respectively.) But Halladay had one additional point to make about why, in 2013, it's so important:

"I think the only tendency in the past is we've had such good players and such good teams that we can kind of turn it on later in the season and make up any ground we've lost," he said. "But I think the older you get, the tougher the division gets — it's more imperative to start holding that competitiveness and finding ways to win games."

See if you notice a difference this spring.

All signs point to Hamels starting season opener

Add Roy Halladay to the list of people who thinks Cole Hamels should start on Opening Day. Doc on Thursday said that the time is now for Hamels to head the Phillies' rotation.

Most pitchers of Halladay's stature would give a generic answer when asked a question like "Who should start Opening Day?" But Halladay is one of those guys who just gets it, and has such a small, unassuming ego for an athlete who has accomplished so much.

Halladay has made 10 consecutive Opening Day starts, tying him for the 11th-longest streak of all-time. In those starts Halladay is 5-3 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. Interestingly, he's allowed 10 homers in those 10 starts.

Hamels, of course, has never started on Opening Day. He was all set to do it in 2009 following a brilliant postseason run, but elbow tightness delayed his first start.

The Phillies' first game is an Monday night ESPN game April 1 in Atlanta. Current Braves are hitting .224 with a .655 OPS against Hamels, but if you subtract Brian McCann, who is doubtful to play because of offseason surgery, they're hitting .204/.263/.302.

The combination of Jason Heyward, the Upton brothers, Dan Uggla and Freddie Freeman is 24-for-116 (.207) against Hamels with three homers, 10 walks and 38 strikeouts.

Report: Phillies & Astros discussed Dom Brown deal

The Phillies and Astros had talks this winter about a trade involving Domonic Brown, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

Heyman's tweet says that the Phillies weren't inclined to trade an outfielder, which makes sense, as does giving Brown at least one more chance before selling low.

Curious what the Phillies even wanted from the Astros. Maybe a few of their former prospects? Jonathan Singleton is Houston's No. 1 prospect, per MLB.com, and righthander Jarrod Cosart is ranked fourth. Those two headlined the July 2011 deal for Hunter Pence.

This is the second time this winter we've heard of a proposal for Brown. Several months ago it was reported that the Phillies were considering dealing Brown to the Cubs for Alfonso Soriano. 

With Delmon Young likely out in April, Brown will get significant playing time in an outfield corner. There figures to be a right field platoon of Brown (vs. RHP) and John Mayberry (vs. LHP), and one in left field of Darin Ruf (vs. LHP) and Laynce Nix (vs. RHP).

Letting Brown and Ruf play against same-handed pitching at some point would be wise, but that probably won't happen early unless they impress in spring training.

Phillies reveal spring training rotation plans

The Phillies on Wednesday revealed their pitching plans for their first five spring training games, which will be started, in order, by Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Kyle Kendrick and John Lannan.

Hamels gets the nod for the Grapefruit League opener Saturday at 1 p.m. against the Houston Astros. B.J. Rosenberg, Zach Miner, Jeremy Horst, Michael Schwimer and Justin De Fratus are penciled in to follow Hamels, per Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com.

The next day against the Tigers, Lee will start before giving way to Rodrigo Lopez, Antonio Bastardo, J.C. Ramirez, Jake Diekman and Joe Savery.

Of the relievers scheduled to pitch this weekend, only Horst and De Fratus are likely to make the Opening Day 25-man roster. Diekman has an outside shot to claim one of the final two bullpen spots.

Jonathan Papelbon and Phillippe Aumont are scheduled to make their first appearances Monday against Detroit, and Chad Durbin is slated to pitch Tuesday vs. the Yankees.

Before the spring training schedule gets underway, the Phils will play a five-inning intrasquad game on Friday that will feature prospects Jon Pettibone, Adam Morgan and Ethan Martin.

And ... oh yeah ... Chase Utley on Friday and Saturday will play in his first spring training games since Shutter Island and Hot Tub Time Machine were in theaters.

Just two Phillies crack Baseball America's Top 100

Two Phillies are on the list, but for the first time since 1995, no prospect within the organization made it into the top 80.

Jesse Biddle came in at No. 89 and Roman Quinn rounded out the list at No. 100, and that's all for the Phillies on Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects List of 2013.

Former Phillies farmhand Travis d'Arnaud ranks No. 23, while Jonathan Singleton placed No. 27.

Biddle's No. 89 ranking was the lowest for the Phillies' top prospect since Scott Rolen was the Phils' top man at No. 91 in 1995. He turned out to be pretty decent.

It's the first time Biddle, selected 27th overall by the Phillies out of Germantown Friends High School in 2010, made the game's most coveted list of potential stars. The 21-year-old lefthander had a strong 2012 campaign in Clearwater, where he finished with a 3.22 ERA, 151 strikeouts and 54 walks in 142.2 innings.

Quinn, a 19-year-old shortstop out of Florida, made the list after finished just his first professional season in 2012, when he batted .281/.370/.408 with nine doubles, 11 triples and 30 stolen bases in 66 games for Williamsport. The switch-hitter was taken by the Phillies in the second round in 2011.

The appearance of only two men, and so low on the list, is a clear sign of how depleted the team's farm system has become compared to just two seasons ago, when four players cracked the top 70.

In case you were wondering, here's a list of Phillies who made the Top 100 list in the past five years:

2013
89. Jesse Biddle
100. Roman Quinn

2012
69. Trevor May

2011
4. Domonic Brown
39. Jonathan Singleton
56. Brody Colvin
70. Jarred Cosart 

2010
15. Domonic Brown
93. Phillippe Aumont 

2009
48. Domonic Brown
52. Carlos Carrasco
66. Lou Marson
69. Jason Donald

Please ignore all Stanton rumors until further notice

The Beerleaguer commentariat is intelligent, so it probably doesn't have to be told to ignore rumors of the Phillies making a run at Giancarlo Stanton, but just in case...

I had never heard of Chris May until 1:30, and as a general rule I don't believe any trade rumors from people I hadn't heard of until five minutes 20 minutes ago. From the looks of it, this isn't May reporting it, it's him simply regurgitating something he heard on WIP. May is an anchor for CBS, and WIP is a CBS radio station.

Either way, WIP doesn't exactly have the best track record with MLB player movement.

There are a whole host of reasons this makes no sense. The Phillies have so very little to trade for Stanton. The Marlins are in the Phillies' division. If Stanton is actually on the block, all 29 salivating teams will be informed so they can trip over themselves to build a trade package.

In other news, the Eagles are in talks to acquire J.J. Watt from the Texans for Darryl Tapp and a seventh-round pick.

Phillies must emphasize patience from backup catchers

The Phillies will obviously miss Carlos Ruiz’s production in the season’s first 25 games and aren’t expecting Erik Kratz and Humberto Quintero to produce as he did last season. That said, what kind of production should they be expecting from two journeyman backstops in April?

Ruiz had a remarkable year in 2012, hitting .325 with a .935 OPS and .368 with a 1.043 OPS with runners in scoring position.

After a hot start, Kratz ended the year with a .248/.306/.504 line.

Quintero hit .232 with a .598 OPS for the Royals.

The 2013 Phillies won’t need Kratz and Quintero in April as much as the 2012 Phillies needed Ruiz in April because Ryan Howard and Chase Utley will be playing games in the season’s first month this time. And the Phillies have been successful in recent years even when their catchers didn’t hit. In three of five seasons from 2007-11, Phillies catchers had an OPS of .725 or lower.

Quintero has never been a good hitter. He’s hit between .226 and .240 with an OBP between .257 and .281 in each of the last six seasons. He has no platoon split. Behind the plate, Quintero’s caught stealing percentage of 33% is slightly above league-average. He figures to play two of every five or six games in April.

Kratz, you know all about. He came up after 11 seasons in the minors, had a historic first 120 plate appearances that put him in a sentence with Ted Williams, but then tailed off as pitchers adjusted. They stopped throwing him fastballs and Kratz continuously swung and missed at breaking balls low and away. You get the feeling that once he took Craig Kimbrel deep on an inside fastball in Atlanta, the league took notice.

Anywho, back to the topic at hand. All the Phillies need out of their catchers in April is solid defense and something like .245/.310/.400. That would actually be a pleasant surprise.

Kratz can’t be expected to replicate his power stroke from 2012 and Quintero has never had above-average pop. The hardest part of that wishful slash line is probably the .310 OBP, since Quintero has 41 walks in 10 seasons and close to 1,300 plate appearances.

With the catcher likely batting eighth in April there should be a greater emphasis on this duo being patient to turn the lineup over.

What the Phillies can’t afford is no patience and a ton of double plays out of their catchers early on. Kratz hit into just two in 32 opportunities last season. Quintero, though, has 41 GIDPs in 234 career opportunities.

GIDPs could be a common occurrence for this Phillies team, which already gives enough outs away by not having too many high-OBP guys. Michael Young and Delmon Young combined for 46 double plays last season and Howard put the ball on the ground at the second-highest rate of his career.

Revere doesn't have a bad eye, he just doesn't miss

Ben Revere admitted this week in Clearwater that plate discipline is an area of his game that needs improvement. Though Charlie Manuel conceded that he hasn’t seen his new centerfielder enough, the manager would like Revere to walk more, too.

Let’s face it, 57 walks in 1,064 career plate appearances in the majors is far too little. It’s a walk in five out of every 100 trips to the batter’s box.

But at 24 and in a new lineup in a new league, Revere could certainly turn that trend around.

See, it’s not that Revere swings at too many pitches. Not at all, actually. He swung at 41 percent of the pitches he saw last season. Only 21 major-leaguers swung at fewer. (Delmon Young led all of baseball by swinging at 59 percent of pitches.)

The problem Revere ran into last year when it came to working walks is that when he did swing, he made contact at a higher rate than just about any player alive. On pitches he swung at in 2012, Revere made contact 92 percent of the time. Only Marco Scutaro and new Nationals centerfielder Denard Span had higher rates.

And Revere barely fouls anything off. Just 22 percent of the total strikes he saw were foul balls. Only one player, Martin Prado, had a lower percentage.

Revere actually ran more 2-0 counts (65) than Brandon Phillips, A.J. Pierzynski and Carlos Ruiz. But only 10 of those 2-0 counts ended up in walks, because Revere swung at that 2-0 pitch 23 times and put the ball in play 15 times.

Revere also worked a 3-1 count 40 times. That’s more than Adrian Beltre, Ichiro, Matt Kemp, Brett Lawrie and Torii Hunter. But again, Revere swung on that count 21 times, and 15 of those times he put the ball in play.

If you’re swinging at that 2-0 or 3-1 pitch half of the time, and making contact on that pitch 60 percent of the time, not too many hitter’s counts are going to turn into walks. And if you’re in the midst of a .294 season, you’re probably not going to change your approach too much in July or August.

It’s not as if Revere is getting up there and swinging at the first pitch every time. He did that just 37 times last year, hitting .357 on the first pitch with six sacrifices. To put that into context, Jimmy Rollins swung at the first pitch 62 times last year and was far less successful, hitting .217. Shane Victorino, another free-swinger, offered at the first pitch exactly 62 times, also.

It’s not that Revere swings too much. It’s that he doesn’t swing and miss enough to work deep counts, nor does he foul off enough pitches to prolong an at-bat. When he swings, he makes contact. From a discipline standpoint, Revere is way more Juan Pierre than Jimmy Rollins.

We get hung up a lot on OBP, and for good reason. But with players like Revere, it's best to let them play their game. As long as he's hitting .290, let him be. If he were hitting .265 it would be a different story. Any team would have taken Pierre in his prime, when he hit .300 with a .347 OBP. Give Revere two or three more hits last year and that's where his line would have been.

It’s not that Revere's eyes are poor. It’s that his wrists are too quick. And that's not as bad a thing as everyone wants to make it.

Charlie, your record will only get you so far

Charlie Manuel said he won't talk about his contract anymore after Saturday, but he got a lot off of his chest about it, his job and his performance as Phillies skipper. And he believes he doesn't have to explain himself, not even to President Obama.

Manuel has more wins that any manager in franchise history. He's one of two to win a World Series title. He guided the team to five straight NL East titles when they had just one in the 21 years before he arrived.

"My record is just as good as anybody’s in baseball," Manuel told reporters, including CSNPhilly.com's Jim Salisbury, on Saturday in Clearwater. "I don’t want to sound like I’m an ‘I/me’ guy because I’m not. But really, I mean just look at it. What’s wrong with it? Do you know what I mean?"

Yes, Charlie, we know what you mean. You undeniably have been the best manager in Phillies history, and arguably own the best track record in the game right now (though Bruce Bochy might have something to say about that).

But your team also owned baseball's best record in 2010 and 2011, and there are no titles or pennants to show for it. Your record has earned you a bad season (2012) and a chance to finish out your contract. But don't expect it to take you any further than that if there isn't another serious title run this year.

It's unfortunate for Manuel -- who, somehow, has never won a Manager of the Year award -- that his heir apparent Ryne Sandberg was promoted to coach third base. And Sandberg isn't going to wait around and be patient -- he bolted from the Cubs when he didn't land that job in 2010.

"You can look at it any way you want to. But it is what it is," Manuel said. "What I meant was, you shouldn’t have to explain it, us or the team. I shouldn’t have to explain it to anybody, the team or President Obama or anybody. Seriously. That’s kind of how I look at it. I’m not worried about my contract. I’ve been in baseball 51 years and right now I definitely plan on staying in baseball and I plan on managing.”

Will Manuel be managing the Phillies post 2012? Sure, it's definitely a possibility. The team, though, won't make that judgment based on his past record -- and they shouldn't. Unless, say, his resume includes multiple World Series titles.

Chase Utley feels great; blames the BABIP gods

Chase Utley concluded the Phillies' week of press conferences Friday in Clearwater when he discussed his knees, his offseason regimen and his bad luck last season.

"I felt like I swung the bat a lot better last year than the year before," Utley said. "I squared up a lot more balls and they say they work out for you. I feel like I didn't get the benefit of the doubt last year, but that's baseball. That's how it works. But again, it's a new year and I'm extremely excited."

Utley had a career-low .261 batting average on balls in play, down from his career BABIP of .306. That was despite having his highest line drive rate (21.4%) since 2008.

Power, a great eye, speed and defense still made Utley a very productive player in 2012 even if the hits didn't fall in as they should have. Utley had a .566 batting average on line drives. League average tends to hover around .730. For him, that was a difference of nine hits. Those nine extra hits would have increased his batting average by 30 points, from .256 to .286. Quite a difference.

Some other interesting quotes from Utley:

"No doubt," he said when asked if he'll play the first home spring training game.

On contract year

"Obviously I'm aware of that, but I don't think it really changes anything that I've done. I've approached every season the same way. The last two years didn't go well as getting on the field, initially. So yeah, obviously you know about it, but it's not going to change anything."

On how many more years he'd like to play

"Not necessarily a number. I enjoy this game, I feel like I have a lot to still do in this game. So who knows, but I'd like to play more than this year. That's for sure."

On team getting older/window closing/sense of pride

"Clearly we want to get back to that level. There's not many of those same guys on this team. There's a handful of guys on that '08 team. So it's a new group of guys, new faces and a new year. So yeah, we want to get back to that level, no doubt. I feel like we have the talent to do it. We're all a year older, but age is just a number. It's how you treat your body, how you take care of it.

"We have some new faces and some younger guys with a lot of energy. Ben Revere for example is pretty exciting to watch. I just watched him track down fly balls in centerfield during batting practice and he's pretty impressive. He's a tremendous athlete, so it's going to be fun to watch him play on a daily basis. Having Michael Young at third base, he's a professional, he's a true gamer. I was really happy we were able to get him. Obviously not only a great player, but a good guy."

On re-examining his style of play after what he's been through the past few years

"A little bit. As you get older, your ideal thing is to learn a little bit and to try to get something out of the game. But again, you try to have the same mindset every day. You hear it all the time but baseball is a game of repetition. Every day is pretty much the same day once the season starts, no matter who you're playing, who you're facing. You have a game, no matter what. You try not to look too far ahead."

Ryan Howard in rare form Thursday in Clearwater

Taking a break for a few hours from all the analysis and projections, Ryan Howard was highly entertaining Thursday in his press conference in Clearwater. One of the true genuine, good guys on the team, Howard was funny but not in the "fake" way Donovan McNabb used to be.

Some money quotes from Howard, courtesy of CSNPhilly.com:

As he sat down

“Let’s have a happy attitude about asking questions.” Howard asked for cheer from a group of reporters that he deemed as dreary as the rainy morning weather.

Howard, when asked by Jim Salisbury how he conditioned this offseason

"I bought the Salisbury hitting tape (pause, smile) ... to work on my hitting."

On the Phillies' age

“I don’t buy into the old thing. It’s all about how young you feel inside and how well you take care of yourself. Everybody in this clubhouse goes out and works their butt out. Everybody goes out in the offseason, they train and we do what we need to do to come back. If people want to call us old, that’s fine, but I think going out there this year we’re going to show people that we’re not old."

The next line was great, if only because it was off-the-cuff but poetically worded.

“I understand the window talk. Yeah, there is a window of opportunity, but if you focus on the window closing, then you never let that cool breeze come in. For us, the window closes when the window closes, but right now the window is still open, so we have to go out and take advantage of this nice breeze while we can.”

On his pitiful .173/.226/.378 line vs. lefties last season

“A lot of it was kind of mental. I told myself this winter, I'm not even going to stress it or worry about it. I know it's in there. I just have to let the inner me come out at the plate and be relaxed. I have to trust myself, trust my ability, and let it fly.

“It's a combination of listening to the noise and trying to please people. People say, 'Oh, he can't hit lefties.' I have to show them I can hit lefties. Obviously, to get to the big leagues you have to hit lefties and righties. It's putting all that stuff aside and just trusting my abilities. I know I can hit lefties. It's just a matter of being relaxed.”

On the importance of playing in spring training

“You don’t realize how important a spring training is until you don’t have one. When I came back, [the Achilles] was always right there in the back of my mind. There was a little bit of hesitation putting weight on it. I didn’t have the full strength to be able to push off and follow-up on my swing. Now I don't even think about it.”

Finally, on Domonic Brown's development

“D-Brown has definitely matured. I think he gets it. He understands what it takes, what he needs to do in order to make this team ... I think he welcomes the opportunity to compete. To me, he’s taken a turn mentally to where he knows what he needs to do.”

Whether or not you put a lot of stock into Howard's words, Thursday's presser showed a lighter side and hopefully reminded us all that this is still fun, and that unless or until all the "What ifs" turn out negatively, there's still room for optimism. It's February, it was sunnier in Philly today than it was in Clearwater, and we're finally getting to hear the players respond to the winter-long criticism.

Chase Utley talks tomorrow.

Revere was better route after all

Missing out on B.J. Upton and Angel Pagan, Ruben Amaro Jr. opted to acquire Ben Revere instead of pursuing Michael Bourn to fill a need in centerfield, and it'll be the better move for the club now and in the long run.

Just four days before the Indians' first full-team workout, Michael Bourn reached a four-year, $48 million deal to man the Cleveland outfield. The two-time All-Star also received a vesting option for a fifth season that will become guaranteed if he reaches 550 plate appearances in the fourth year of the contract. If healthy, such an option should be easily attainable for Bourn, who's eclipsed that threshold in four straight campaigns.

The Phillies had their chance to get their former prospect back. It's obvious now it wouldn't have taken the supposed nine-figure megacontract Bourn was seeking — and yet, Amaro still went the better route in bringing in Revere instead.

Sure, Bourn's the better player at the moment and could even remain so in the future — depending on how his legs hold up as he reaches his mid-30s near the end of his deal. But he'll be costing the Indians $12 million per season on average while Revere's 2013 salary won't even reach $1 million. He won't come close to what Bourn makes until his arbitration years are up, and that won't happen until after 2017.

Is Bourn worth that much more this season, to limit the Phillies' flexibility when they clearly still have a glaring offensive hole they'll need to address as the trade deadline approaches (assuming they're in the race)? No, not at all.

Just glancing at the numbers from last year, Bourn batted .274/.348/.391, stole 42 bases (and led the league being caught 13 times), recorded 45 extra-base hits and struck out 155 times in 155 games. Revere, in 124 games, produced a slash line of .294/.333/.342, stole 40 bases (caught nine times), recorded just 19 extra-base hits and struck out 54 times.

Revere has no power and rarely splits the gaps — that's obvious, and it's been well-documented. He doesn't take enough walks (one every 19 PA's compared to Bourn's one every 10). His arm isn't as strong. Yet he's still developing — and ahead of where Bourn was as a 25-year-old — and will come at a much more reasonable price. The Phillies could probably use the extra $11 million more wisely.

Oh, it shouldn't be forgotten, either, that Revere's price also included parting ways Vance Worley and Trevor May. What he did not cost was a first-round pick, which the Phillies would have been forced to surrender if they had signed Bourn.

Halladay wants to stay with Phillies past '13

The guaranteed portion of Roy Halladay's three-year contract with the Phillies expires after 2013, when an option triggers if he gets to 415 combined innings between 2012 and 2013. Since that would require him to pitch 258.2 innings this season, it's a near impossibility. But Halladay wants to stay with the Phillies regardless.

“If I had my druthers I would be here until I’m done,” Halladay said after Wednesday's first workout, according to CSNPhilly.com. “As good as [the Phillies have] been to me, I think they realize I’d be as good to them as I could be. Going forward, I really don’t see myself playing anywhere else. And I don’t want to play anywhere else.”

The phrase hometown discount comes to mind. Halladay will be 36 in May, but barring a disastrous 2013 season he'll be in line to find an AAV of at least $13-15 million. It's just how the game works these days. Dan Haren had a 4.33 ERA last season, has hip and back issues and much less of a track record than Doc, and he got close to $15 million from the Nationals.

Halladay said Wednesday that he feels as good right now as he's felt in any spring training in his storied 15-year career. The shoulder tightness is no more, and the comfort level seems to be back. All the focus last spring on his velocity? Halladay isn't as concerned as everyone else.

“Velocity is not as important to me as feeling good,” he said. “When you feel comfortable you have an easier time putting the ball where you want it. I felt like there were a lot of times last year when I was struggling physically and mechanically to get the ball to the parts of the plate where I wanted it. The velocity I think is always an added bonus. I don’t know where it is or where it will be, but if I feel the way I do right now,where if I physically can get the ball where I want to get it to and not have to try to do anything different, then I’m a lot better off.”

Cruz leaves Phillies

Juan Cruz is gone. He became dissatisfied with his role when the Phillies signed Chad Durbin and sought a better opportunity elsewhere, according to a Jim Salisbury report. He never officially signed a contract, but instead a letter of agreement which allowed him to flee without penalty. 

It's not much of a loss. Assuming Jeremy Horst makes the team, the Phils have about seven or eight young relievers battling for two bullpen spots. Cruz has a 4.05 ERA in 12 seasons, with more strikeouts than innings but far too many walks (4.8 per nine).

Stutes is back

Michael Stutes feels stronger than ever in his shoulder and back after a shoulder procedure ended his 2012 season after just six games. He is one of those relievers competing for a spot, but his strong 2011 (3.63 ERA, 8.4 K/9 in 62 innings) doesn't give him any sort of inside track.

Real-life baseball! Several Phillies take the field

Every Phillie except Juan Cruz (miscommunication on report date) has checked in to camp in Clearwater, according to CSN's Jim Salisbury. And after a 4 1/2-month offseason that felt more like 4 1/2 years, actual baseball activities are underway.

The first official workout for pitchers and catchers is Wednesday, and the first full squad practice is Saturday. That said, plenty of Phillies have already begun fielding and throwing. Jimmy Rollins took grounders on Tuesday morning, Darin Ruf chased down fly balls and talked to the media, and, according to this Matt Gelb tweet, Chase Utley was more active in 10 minutes Tuesday than he was all spring last year.

Ryan Howard also made an appearance, reportedly looking slimmer than he was during the tail end of the 2012 season.

Some other scattered notes:

• Pitching coach Rich Dubee told CSNPhilly.com of his plan to split up lefties Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee again this season. Salisbury opines that it could mean Hamels' first Opening Day start, followed by Kyle Kendrick and Lee. That would allow Roy Halladay to pitch in the home opener.

• For the 995th time since October, Ruben Amaro spoke optimistically about the healthy of Utley and Halladay.

• Former Phillie Ryan Madson was forced to shut it down just one day into spring training with the Angels because of a sore elbow. Madson could very well begin the season on the DL. Just awful news for a very talented reliever. Madson missed all of last season after having Tommy John surgery.

Phillies' once-elite defense trending down

From 2007-10 the Phillies were third in all of baseball with 130 defensive runs saved. The last two seasons, they ranked 28th with minus-67, ahead of only the Mets (-102) and Marlins (-120).

It’s a downward trend that can also be found by looking at fielding percentage, which only tells a piece of the defensive story. The Phils led MLB with a .987 fielding percentage from 2007-11, then fell to 15th last season when Ty Wigginton and Mike Fontenot kicked more grounders than they gloved.

The Phillies’ defense is a concern heading into 2013, especially in the infield and outfield corners. Ryan Howard looked awful at first base last season after returning from Achilles surgery, failing to make scoop after scoop. It was worrisome because, although he was never above average defensively, Howard did usually make all the picks. Perhaps a year later and healthier he'll revert to form.

Michael Young will be playing third base on an everyday basis, and he wasn’t a good defender at the hot corner even when it was the only position he had to worry about. In 2009 and 2010, the last two years he regularly played third, Young cost the Rangers a combined 13 runs. Focusing solely on third base should
help him a bit in Philly, but he is widely regarded as a statue-like presence on the left side of the infield.

Third base defense is crucial to a team like the Phillies, who are built on pitching and have a bevy of groundball pitchers. Pedro Feliz was as steady as it gets in 2008 and 2009. When healthy, Placido Polanco followed suit the next three years. Now the Phils will have more offense at the hot corner – Phillies’ third basemen have hit .263/.323/.370 since ’07 -- but less defense.

In the outfield corners, Domonic Brown has a very strong arm but poor instincts and below-average route-running skills. Some of the same questions surfaced before Brown even made it to the majors, so this is a long-term worry with him.

Darin Ruf didn’t begin learning left field until last year. He figures to be a Pat Burrell-like defender.

Delmon Young may be worse defensively than either of them, and he is gearing up to play right field. Based on this organization’s penchant for playing veterans, Young will likely see a bulk of the playing time.

When the Phillies build a lead after six innings, Freddy Galvis or Kevin Frandsen will likely come on to replace Michael Young. John Mayberry will replace either the leftfielder or rightfielder. But in tie games? Or games the Phillies trail by a run or two? This defense could be leaky, and that is a huge concern heading into a crucial year.

Who gets the ball first?

Roy Halladay has made 10 consecutive Opening Day starts, but Cole Hamels was the clear ace in 2012. Who will Charlie Manuel call on first on April 1 in Atlanta?

Back on March 31, 2003, the Phillies trotted out Kevin Millwood for his first Opening Day start in red pinstripes. That same day, the Blue Jays sent out Roy Halladay, and the right-handed ace of aces has taken the ball on every Opening Day since, including the last three seasons with the Phillies.

But last year, Cole Hamels made clear the case he's the Phillies new ace. Forget that Halladay had his worst year since at least 2004 — Hamels was the one of the only consistent commodities on an up-and-down squad last season and put together his third straight year of at least 30 starts, 200 innings pitched, an ERA 3.06 or less and a WHIP of 1.17 or better.

Since 2010, the left-hander has recorded a 2.97 ERA with 621 strikeouts and a 1.10 WHIP over 640 innings.

Halladay's numbers have been nearly identical: 2.91 ERA, 571 K's, 1.09 WHIP and 640.2 innings — though he did it over six fewer games. But they've been going in the wrong direction.

And then there's the $144 million the Phils threw Hamels' way, christening him as the ace of the future, which may have arrived earlier than expected with Halladay's injury-shortened season.

No Phillie has made more than three consecutive Opening Day starts since Steve Carlton, who made 10 straight from 1977-86. Oddly enough, the Phils fell in eight of those 10 contests. With Halladay, they've won three in a row.

Yet, even if Halladay emerges from spring training completely healthy, Hamels has proven he's the one who's now leading the way and should, for the first time in his career, get the ball on Opening Day.

Clearwater storylines: Health, new guys, Ruf

We're finally here, folks -- pitchers and catchers report by Tuesday and we're just two weeks away from the Phillies' first exhibition game. In advance of the Phils' trip to Clearwater, let's take a look at the top storylines heading into spring training.

1) How healthy are the stars?

Chase Utley hasn't played a spring training game since 2010, but he's poised to play this time around. Utley has taken a different approach to his offseason conditioning, working out regularly through the winter to keep his knees in shape. The thought is that the downtime he had the last two winters was worse for his chronic knee condition.

Roy Halladay has thrown a lot in recent months and all signs point to a healthy return for the soon-to-be 36-year-old. Halladay was healthy for just a small portion of 2012, and was significantly worse when he returned from his seven-week DL stint than he was before it.

Ryan Howard has apparently gotten himself into better shape than he was in last season, but nobody has yet seen him to confirm it.

If one of these three guys misses significant time in 2013, another third-place finish can be expected.

2) Revere, Adams and the Youngs

Ben Revere will have a chance to lead off all spring with Jimmy Rollins away for the World Baseball Classic. Revere really needs to seize that leadoff job, because the rest of the lineup shakes out better when Rollins can be put into a run-producing role. Given the context of this team, Charlie Manuel might finally be willing move Rollins in the order.

Michael and Delmon Young are each coming off of horrible seasons. While Delmon has proven he is little more than a platoon player, Michael Young is a candidate to bounce back. No, he isn't the player who hit .311 from 2003-11, but he could absolutely be the guy who hit .284 with a .774 OPS in 2010. That would be huge; Phillies' third basemen have hit .263/.323/.370 since 2007.

Mike Adams, meanwhile, will make the biggest impact if he is healthy. Adams said in his introductory press conference that he will be ready for Opening Day following corrective surgery for his thoracic outlet syndrome. If he is, the Phillies will have fixed their eighth-inning woes (29th in ERA in that inning in 2012) with the best setup man in baseball since 2009.

3) Will Ruf earn a job?

The Phils head to Clearwater with five outfielders vying for two spots. Darin Ruf and Domonic Brown are the most intriguing candidates. Brown can finally earn everyday duty heading into his fourth season by hitting well in the spring. And Ruf is out to prove that his 41-homer season was no fluke. If Ruf can be even adequate in the field, there's reason to believe he could be a Pat Burrell-like offensive contributor, maybe minus a dozen walks.

4) Don't overvalue spring stats

While numbers will be important for players like Ruf and Brown, spring training stats are meaningless for pretty much everyone else. It would be nice for guys to perform in Clearwater, but keep in mind that spring training stats are rarely indicative of how a player performs from April-October.

Last spring, for example, Placido Polanco hit .429 and Shane Victorino hit .311 with a .849 OPS. Polanco went on to have the worst year of his career, and Victorino failed to come within 70 points of that OPS in any month during the season.

Pitching-wise, Halladay had a 5.73 ERA in six starts, then had a 1.95 ERA in five April starts. Vance Worley had just two walks in 20 innings, then struggled with control and had 18 in his first 48 frames of the 2012 season.

The spring is for working on adjustments and getting good swings. When the games don't count, process matters way more than results.

Sizing up the National League East, Part II

Yesterday, we broke down the outlooks of the Braves and Marlins in 2013. Today, it'll be the reigning champion Nationals and Mets put under the microscope.

Part 2 of 2 on the Phillies' division rivals:

Washington Nationals: The Nats didn't make any huge splashes like the Braves this offseason, but the moves they did make were effective. Denard Span, who should lead off Opening Day, was brought in via trade and Rafael Soriano will take over the ninth inning. Though Michael Morse was shipped to Seattle, Adam LaRoche, more importantly, was resigned to anchor first base for the next two seasons.

But for this D.C. club, it all starts with the rotation, which will challenge the Phillies' fivesome as the best in the NL East. Stephen Strasburg is primed for his first full big-league season and shouldn't be shut down on the cusp of the postseason again. Gio Gonzalez, though his NL-best 21 wins were back by great run support (6.68 per game), still posted career bests in ERA (2.89), WHIP (1.1) and K/BB (2.72:1). Jordan Zimmermann has improved for two straight seasons. Newly acquired three-time All-Star Dan Haren, still just 32, could be a stud if healthy. Ross Detwiler is as solid a fifth man a team could want.

The bats aren't slacking either — the lineup will be productive from top to bottom. A lot depends, though, on LaRoche and Ian Desmond replicating their breakout performances of 2012, when each bashed a career high in homers: LaRoche (33) passed 30 for the first time since 2006, and Desmond (25) had hit just 22 in his first two-plus years combined. If those two don't regress, Ryan Zimmerman stays healthy and Bryce Harper gets even better, they'll be just as dangerous in 2013 as they were a season ago.

New York Mets: R.A. Dickey — the Mets' best story of 2012 — is now gone and prospect Travis D'Arnaud, the main piece the club got from Toronto in return, isn't likely to step in to a big role just yet. The biggest offseason move was extending David Wright eight years. Other than that, the Mets didn't do much. This team was bad last season and the forecast doesn't look much brighter in 2013.

The Mets' lineup isn't all that improved from a year ago, when they averaged just over four runs per game and had the 12th-most productive offense in the league. We all know Wright will produce, and Daniel Murphy (.302 average, .344 OBP since 2011) can get on base, but after that it's a bunch of question marks. A key could be Ike Davis, who hit 32 homers but batted just .227 last season.

New York's one "big" free agency signing was Shaun Marcum, who finished 7-4 with a 3.70 ERA in Milwaukee in 2012. He'll fill out the middle of a rotation topped by Johan Santana, who's back from shoulder surgery, and Jon Niese and rounded out with Matt Harvey and Dillon Gee. Frank Francisco (5.53 ERA, 23 saves in 2012) is back as closer. And familiar face Pedro Feliciano should make his fair share of appearances when the lefty-heavy Phillies roll into town.

Check out our expanded posts on the Nationals and Mets on CSNPhilly.com.

Sizing up the National League East

How do the Phillies stack up against their divisional foes? This week at CSNPhilly.com, we've been breaking down the NL East, which has experienced a lot of movement this offseason.

Here's the Part 1 of 2 on the outlook:

Atlanta Braves: The Bravos have seen the most changeover from last year, losing guys like Chipper Jones (retirement), Michael Bourn (free agency), Martin Prado (trade) and Tommy Hanson (trade). They notably brought on board the Upton brothers B.J. (free agency) and Justin (trade) and added Jordan Walden (trade) to their already stacked bullpen.

Yet, for all of the movement on the roster, Atlanta seems to have gone par for the course. The departure of Chipper, who batted .287/.377/.455 last season and Bourn, who stole 42 bases and slapped 45 extra-base hits, can't be overstated. Prado, another get-on-base guy, hit .301 with 10 homers and 70 RBIs. Sure, the Uptons will provide power (45 homers in 2012), but it will come at a cost (290 K's).

The rotation is good, not great, and dependent largely upon whether or not Kris Medlen and Mike Minor can come close to replicating their 2012 second halves. But where the Braves have everyone beat is their bullpen. Lefties Jonny Venters and Eric O'Flaherty and righties Walden and Craig Kimbrel last season fanned 279 batters in 217.2 frames (11.6 K/9). If they get ahead, forget about it.

Miami Marlins: Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle are gone; Juan Pierre, Placido Polanco and Henderson Alvarez are in. Sound good to you? It should if you're the Phillies, or any other NL East club.

The Fish's sole redeeming asset is Giancarlo Stanton, who parked 37 homers and topped the league with a .608 slugging percentage last year. The problem is: Why would any opponent pitch to the budding 23-year-old superstar? His 46 walks in 123 games are almost sure to go up, and if he's impatient, his 143 strikeouts could, too.

On the mound, Phillie-killer and $11.5-million man Ricky Nolasco will trot out as the ace. In 2012 he went 12-13 with a 4.48 ERA — his best posting since 2008. Alvarez, Wade LeBlanc, Nate Eovaldi and Jacob Turner round out the rotation. Steve Cishek (15 saves, 2.69 ERA) will close when the rare opportunity arises. Expect the Phillies to improve upon their 10-8 mark against Miami this season.

Check out our expanded posts on the Braves and Marlins on CSNPhilly.com.

Phillies' farm gets little love in Law's rankings

Former special assistant to Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi and current minor-league analyst for ESPN.com, Keith Law, released his prospect rankings this week and the Phillies are quite low on the list.

The Phillies rank 27th organizationally, and the only NL team lower on the list is the Brewers.

Why? Well, because most of the Phillies' exciting minor-leaguers are years away from the majors.

They'd be higher on the list if they didn't trade for Roy Halladay or Hunter Pence. Travis D'Arnaud -- who was traded by the Phillies to the Blue Jays for Halladay, then from Toronto to the Mets for R.A. Dickey -- ranks 14th on Law's Top 100.

Jonathan Singleton and Jarred Cosart, traded to Houston for Pence, rank 32nd and 86th, respectively. Law is very high on Singleton, calling him one of the only true offensive first basemen in the minors. He has questions about Cosart's control, but notes that if the Astros want to make him a closer, he'd be among the best closer prospects in the game.

None of the players traded for Roy Oswalt or Cliff Lee (in mid-2009) made Law's Top 100.

All 30 teams were represented in the Top 100, but the Phillies' top prospect was ranked lower than the top prospect of every other team. Right-hander Adam Morgan, who took a huge step forward in 2012, was 91st. Lefty Jesse Biddle was 95th.

Law projects Morgan to be a No. 3 or No. 4 starter, and sees Biddle as a pitcher with more upside but more command issues. Of Morgan, Law says:

In his first full year in pro ball, however, Morgan starting pitching more off his fastball and everything he threw ticked upward, adding a grade of velocity while seeing both his curveball and the changeup become more effective. He's also shown he can win games with any of those three pitches (fastball, curveball, changeup) as his go-to pitch in pitchers' counts, with impressive feel and command of all three offerings.

The Astros were ranked in that 27-30 range as recently as 2011, but they've surged to fourth on Law's list, thanks in large part to the Phillies.

The Cardinals are first. The top NL East team is the Mets (No. 14), followed by the Marlins (16), Braves (20) and Nationals (21).

Dom Brown an unknown at age 25 ... so what?

If Domonic Brown is to have an everyday job for the 2013 Phillies, he'll have to earn it in spring training. With 147 games under his belt, Brown hasn't yet consistently impressed, but don't write him off just yet. Several other successful big-leaguers had very similar starts to their careers.

Brown has hit .236/.315/.388 in 492 plate appearances for the Phillies, with 12 homers, 24 doubles and five steals in seven attempts. It's essentially a full-season's worth of plate appearances spread out across three partial stints.

Those obviously aren't good numbers for a corner outfielder, especially one who has also been a liability running routes. Brown's patience at the plate has been a redeeming quality; he has a 10.4% walk rate, while the league average the last two seasons has been 8%.

It wouldn't be unprecedented for Brown, at age 25, to approach the expectations many had for him. Here are some players who can attest to that, having struggled like Brown during their age 22-24 seasons:

Miguel Montero: The Diamondbacks' catcher has been an elite offensive performer at his position the last four seasons, but his first three partial years were nothing special. He hit .239/.309/.411 from ages 22-24. Staggeringly similar numbers to Brown's .236/.315/.388 line.

Miguel Tejada: Tejada won an MVP at age 28. Four years prior, when he was Brown's age, Tejada was a .226/.286/.373 hitter in just over 500 plate appearances. Like Brown, Tejada was a top-10 prospect, league-wide, by Baseball America.

Aaron Rowand: The former Phillies centerfielder did very little in his first two seasons, hitting .268/.325/.405 in 479 plate appearances. A bit more contact than Brown, but not much more discipline or power.

Eric Hosmer: Hosmer showed flashes of potential superstardom in 2011, when he hit .293 with 19 homers and a .799 OPS for the Royals. Last season, though, he dipped to .232/.304/.359 with 14 homers -- numbers Brown would have projected out to over a full 2012 season.

Cliff Floyd: From ages 25-32, Floyd was the definition of steady, batting .289 with a .885 OPS and averages of 23 homers, 32 doubles and 14 steals. But from ages 22-24? Floyd hit .222/.326/.393. Again, almost an exact match for Brown's slash-line to this point.

Aubrey Huff: He hit .257 with a .683 OPS in his first two years. Then Huff figured things out and hit .291 with an .846 OPS and 25 homers per year the next seven seasons.

Aside from Hosmer, all of these players have in common poor starts to what turned into successful careers. None of them truly are direct matches to Brown's skill set, but many have pieces of his game. Hosmer and Huff have the lefthanded power swing. Hosmer and Tejada have the prospect pedigree. Montero has the uncharacteristic swing. Floyd had the tools.

If Brown can turn into any of them offensively, the Phillies will be thrilled after three stints and no lasting impressions.

The key is to not get wrapped up in the moment. Plenty of players figured things out after their 25th birthday.

Is Aumont the best of the bunch?

Cliff Lee was traded three times within the span of a year and brought in 11 different players for the Indians, Phillies and Mariners, but not a single one has yet panned out into a solid major leaguer.

The Phillies on Tuesday designated J.C. Ramirez for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster for Chad Durbin. Ramirez on Friday cleared waivers and will report to Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

Ramirez doesn't appear to have a big-league future, meaning the 2009 trade of Lee to the M's will likely leave the Phillies with just Phillippe Aumont and Tyson Gillies to show for it — clearly not a lot for a former Cy Young winner.

Think the Phils got robbed? Take a look at what the other teams brought in for one of the best left-handed starting pitchers in the game:

Cleveland: The Indians picked up four prospects from the Phillies in July 2009 for a year and a half of Lee, but three seasons later the group has collectively shown little promise.

Carlos Carrasco has a 9-11 record and 4.93 ERA in 33 career starts, but he missed all of last year following Tommy John surgery. Jason Donald and Lou Marson have both served as backups their entire tenures. Donald, a 27-year-old utility man, batted .202/.246/.282 in 2012, while Marson is a career .220/.309/.301 hitter. Jason Knapp, a former second-round pick, is out of baseball.

Seattle: The Mariners thought they hit the jackpot when they brought in first baseman Justin Smoak from Texas as one of four prospects acquired for just half a year of Lee. But Smoak, starting 132 games in 2012, batted just .217/.290/.364 with 19 homers, 51 RBIs and 111 K’s. He’s a career .223 hitter.

The other guys? Blake Beavan posted an 11-11 record with a 4.43 ERA last year but struck out just 67 batters in 152.1 innings. Josh Leuke was traded to Tampa Bay prior to 2012 and owns a career 7.25 ERA. Matt Lawson has spent the entirety of his last three seasons in Double-A.

While it’s still too early to completely give up on Smoak, or even Beavan, the results thus far have not been encouraging. Which brings us back to Aumont.

The 6-foot-7 right-handed fireballer made 18 appearances for the Phils in 2012, posting two saves and a 3.68 ERA. In 14.2 innings, he struck out 14 batters but also struggled with control, walking nine.

Gillies, the other man left from the Cliff Lee deal, has had many a problem with injuries and suspensions but had a promising showing — batting .304/.369/.453 in 68 games — at Reading last year. But he’s 24 and still a work in progress, clearly not ready for the majors just yet.

Aumont, 24 in 2013, has proven since his move back to the ’pen in 2011 that he could be a valuable asset. He fanned 137 batters in 98 innings (12.6 K/9) between Reading and Lehigh Valley the last two years while walking 59 men. He also successfully closed out 22 games.

CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury said on Phillies Hot Stove earlier this week he believes Aumont will make the bullpen out of spring training despite the newly acquired arms of Mike Adams and Chad Durbin. If Aumont does, he’ll get his first crack at a full season in the bigs.

So is Aumont the gem of the 11-player group? As of this point, yes, and that's not saying much since he's a reliever with 18 games of major-league experience. If the Phillies got less than Lee's worth, all it means is that they're one of three teams to have done so.