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Wednesday, February 27, 2013

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Let's see what else Brown can do this season.

Cautiously optimistic but ST and regular season ball are two very different things. Keeping my fingers cross.

Conservative estimate on Brown in 2013:

720 PA, .352 AVG/.472 OBP/1.342 OPS, 57 HR, 43 2B, 12 3B, 147 RBI, 120 R, 52 SB/9 CS

15.2 WAR

From the last thread:


***Coco Crisp stole 3rd base 14 times(only caught once) out his 39 SB last season. Thats a big chunk...anyone know if its the biggest ever?***

I would imagine its not given how often Rickey would steal 3B in his prime. (Unless you mean as a percentage of his total SB that is).

I cant find any way to look up just 3B steals and I dont have the time to go through his box scores right now (though I actually kinda want to out of curiosity).

Does B-R.com play index do that for those with a paid subscription?

Per Google, Rickey stole 3B 34 times in 1982 and that's the record...it was part of his ridiculous 130 SB season.

NEPP, in your conservative estimate, you forgot to note that he'd have an unsustainably high BAbip, HR/FB% and LD%, thus giving us all reason to complain about a 15 WAR season.

I really hope this is the year he reaches his full potential. It pretty much has to be.

Just watched the HR Brown hit yesterday. I love how calm his upper half is. Just a simple load and then he unravels. His hands don't get too wild when he loads up. Much more compact than years past.

It would be wonderful for all parties involved if Dom Brown had a breakout season. .275/.750 would be nice. And that's not his ceiling either. Dude is still developing.

Biggest issue for Brown seems to be staying healthy. If he can avoid the injury bug he has the tools to shine.

yes...if we can add Brown getting significantly better to not-unreasonable expectations for improvement over last year's results from Doc, Howard, and Utley, this team will be JUST fine.

NEPP: I was talking about % of SB being 3rd base. I didn't look THAT hard, but didnt seem to be something I could find.

Ricky's insanely high totals makes his chance at a % pretty unlikely. Crisp was 14 of 39 last year, which is 36%.

found the 3b steals stat on bref. I feel bad for ever doubting our man Jimmy when wondering who was the best in 2012.

40% of his steals(12 of 30) were 3B last year, and he was never caught. That was the highest total(with min. of 15 SB) and the highest number of 3Bsteals without getting caught.

Rajai Davis led the majors with 17 3B steals(37%).


Pitching and defense are the two biggest concerns. If Utley and Howard are in the lineup, they will score enough runs. Brown nailing down a starting spot would just be some icing on the cake.

Issue is whether they get a real improvement in their pitching this year (top 3 in the NL) and if the defense can avoid being horrendous. Pitching is where they have invested the bulk of their dollars and it has to carry them.

Still really want to see Halladay pitch over 4 IP to see how this stuff looks.

Interesting info on stealing 3B, lorecore.

JRoll's ability to pick his spots and steal successfully is really underrated even among Phils' fans it seems. Also makes smart decusiona defensively too an overwhelmingly majority of the time.

***JRoll's ability to pick his spots and steal successfully is really underrated even among Phils' fans it seems.***

A talent that Chase Utley also shares...as did Werth when he was here too. Revere hopefully will do the same thing as well.

This site has sucked without JW. Just not the same feel to it. Turning into PhilliesNation.com with Siedman and all these terrible non-Beerleaguer writers.

IIRC, Jimmy has one of the highest SB% in history for a guy with over 400 SB.

403 SB/83 CS, 82.9%

It's why Jimmy's baserunning prowess won't fall off a cliff as his legs get slower. Smarts on the basepaths can turn even an average runner into an efficient base stealer, i.e. Chase Utley's 2009 season where he stole 23 bases without getting caught once. In fact, Chase has been caught 5 times in the last 5 seasons, while swiping 75 bags, for a ridiculous 93.75% rate.

Jimmy's never been that efficient, but since 2005 (his age 26 season), he's stolen 273 bases against only 41 CS, for a really impressive 87% rate.

For guys with over 400 SB, only Tim Raines, Davey Lopes and Willie Wilson have a higher SB% than Jimmy.

Utley has the highest SB% in history for those that qualify on B-R.com.

A smart baserunner is ten times better than a fast baserunner.

Say what you will about Bobby Abreu, he was a great base runner as well. Even his last years on the Angels, when he was old and fat, he still had a pretty good percentage.

NEPP, a lot of the more efficient baserunners are actually pretty recent. Jayson Werth and Carlos Beltran both rank pretty high on those % lists. Beltran is actually near 90% for his career, and he's approaching 400 SB.

Actually way off on Beltran. He didn't have a great season last year stealing bases, and he's not even close to 400.

Here's some guy's list of the 10 worst moves from the off-season. I won't reveal the ending, except to say that the Phillies have a significant presence on the list.

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2013/2/27/4034016/10-worst-moves-of-the-offseason

Stop bashing the new writers. Beerleaguer has always been about the discussions in the comments anyway.

For a site that claims to be about "Alternative Viewpoints", bringing in different writers to offer such alternative viewpoints has been met with scorn and derision.

Yeah, c'mon, the new guys are doing fine.

Its just spring training after all, let's give the rookies a chance to get some at-bats and see what they've got. JW doesn't need the practice, when the season comes he'll flip the switch.

fatal: according to the website, those viewpoints were ok in 2012. In 2013 howveer, that is no longer the case.

The reason BL has been lackluster is because the off-season has been lackluster. Therefore, the comments section (the bread-and-butter) has been lackluster. It's merely a coincidence that the new writers began at that time. I don't think they are related in anyway. There's nothing really all that interesting to report. How many Thread Headers can one write that basically says: "If they stay healthy..."

bap: Hard to argue with his assessment of the phillies moves.

lorecore: Nice job with your 10:43. I made a comment about changing the banner in early January. Nothing yet, apparently. IT'S DRIVING ME NUTS!

Thank god BAP posted that random SBNation list. I had been on the fence that the MYoung trade was worse than the Marlins fire sale, but now that this expert says it was, I'm totally convinced.

Brisbee is another member of the 'average replacement reliever' cult and that any minor league reliever who throws hard with a decent K/9 & puts up good numbers at AAA has a good shot at being at least an average MLB reliever.

Numbers and the long track record of relievers who don't have a viable offspeed pitch not succeeding clearly says otherwise.

Agree that D. Young was a terrible move if he is given the starting RF job which Amaro did seem to state was the intended goal. If it was just a depth signing, it was fine because organizationally this team has no depth at the corner OF positions.

As for the Young trade, it has become really trendy to completely bash it but the the only realistic alternatives were signing E. Chavez on a 1-yr deal or signing Keppinger to a multi-year deal (he got 3 yr/$12M).

I wouldn't have minded the Keppinger deal and he could have been a super-utility player for the Phils in '14 and '15.

Young either rebounds and hits enough or it was a poor move by the Phils.

b_a_p: The Delmon Young move has been beaten to death, but for some reason, it needs to be beaten more. This move was (nearly) universally panned by BL and everyone else, for that matter. It makes zero sense and the blurb in that article illustrates why. I still, to this day, cannot fathom a reason behind why the Phils made this move. Low cost or not, it makes no sense.

I'm praying that Brown and Ruf come out smoking, so even a nitwit like Charlie will realize that playing D.Young is a mistake. Unfortunately, it would take historic starts from both Brown and Ruf to get that into his head.

I do find it kind of ironic though that all of the Amaro bashers hated him giving out multi-year deals to veterans and overpaying this year bashed him for doing exactly that.

I'm sure if he had signed Keppinger too, people would have bashed for him signing a guy who has been a utility infielder entering his mid-30s to a 3-year deal.

Kind of like the same people who defended Cholly as a manager or said he wasn't a big issue with the club all of a sudden started really bashing him last year & his bullpen moves when the team wasn't winning as much.

MG, at the time I felt it, and I still do.

Rather have paid Youk $12 M for the year, then Young $6 M for the year plus prospects.

The issue in the OF isn't going to be Brown or even Ruf/Mayberry.

The issue is going to be giving Nix a lot of PT and what kind of production he gives the Phils vs RHP.

I don't think Ruf/Mayberry are going to be everyday players and that Nix is going to (at least in April/May) get a lot of PT in LF vs RHP.

I thought Nix could be useful last year as a PT player but the more I saw of him & the more I thought he kind of sucks.

He's got awful career PH number and is overmatched even by RHP pitchers who throw hard. For a guy who is supposed to be a fastball hitter, he doesn't really show it last year.

Fat - Me too although that additional $6M would have prevented the Phils from doing a couple of things this offseason including likely signing Adams or a solid setup FA reliever.

This lineup would have been much better off with a ~.250 hitter who BBs a bunch and has some pop too vs say what I think Young will give them (~.280 with ~10 HRs and a below average BB rate)

Also MG, I'm guessing your criticism of Brisbee is in response to the Broxton item.

It should be pointed out that the Reds don't just have a surplus of good AAA relievers with no ML success. They have a surplus of good relievers with ML success under their belts, in LeCure (109 ERA+ from 10-12), Arredondo (134 ERA+ over the last 2 seasons), Ondrusek (119 ERA+ from 10-12).

I'm not against the Broxton deal totally, but I can see Brisbee's point.

Aside from Ruiz, Nix was the Phillies best hitter when he was given a chance to play. His injury ended that, and his post-injury performance was atrocious.

But I hold out that Nix getting his some starts vs RHP isn't that bad. My loose prediction for this season:

Revere CF - 700 PA
DOM RF - 600 PA
Nix RF/LF - 350 PA
Ruf LF - 250 PA
RFD LF/RF - 200 PA

As for that SBnation article, how does it not mention Ty Wigginton signing for 2 years $5 million by the Cardinals?

Nix to start year: .326/.392/.587
Nix after injury: .191/.263/.294

"As for that SBnation article, how does it not mention Ty Wigginton signing for 2 years $5 million by the Cardinals?"

Excellent point. That, to me, ranks as one of the most truly incomprehensible moves of the off-season. Dare I say . . . it's even more incomprehensible than the Phillies' signing of Delmon Young.

Worst thing about the Broxton deal was the years and not the dollars. He's getting $7M/year.

Broxton is a guy who is a fat blob who has severely criticized by the Dodgers for his lack of conditioning & offseason training.

For a guy who relies so much on his fastball and its velocity to get outs, that's a huge problem. Also the fact that he is going to be 29 and it isn't uncommon that guys in their late 20s/early 30s can really lose velocity fast.

Broxton already has lost a little velocity and is now at 94-95 on his fastball instead of 96-97 in his prime with the Dodgers. He will start to have real issues if that creeps down to say 91-92 and he doesn't have the same velocity difference between his fastball and his slider.

lorecore - That's a really good point but brings up another problem with Nix in that he has had current leg injuries for most of his career.

It is something you would hope that Scott Sheridan and the training staff would help him adjust his offseason training regimen to help him lessen the possibility of injury during the season.

Whatever the Phils did with JRoll 2 years ago has made a real difference.

I know it's a preaseason list, but the Young trade really needs to be looked at midseason, since they're counting on him rebounding from last year's horrible year. They didn't give up TOO much for him, and they're not paying him too much.

I don't think anyone claims that *any* young reliever who throws hard and strikes out guys in the minors will make it as a good reliever in the majors.

I think what people who want to build the bullpen internally think is that it's really hard to predict which of those guys will succeed year-to-year, and it's also really hard to predict what guys already in the majors will succeed year-to-year, and so you're basically throwing a bunch of live arms against a wall and hoping some stick. Given that, your best bet is to throw the "livest" arms and the cheapest live arms.

I also think the Phils bullpen was not nearly as bad as people think last season, and this is one of the reasons I was generally against focusing on it in the offseason--they were trying to fix a problem that was likely to fix itself. Adams is fine, and hopefully he's healthy and better than last season, so I'm not complaining about adding him. But generally, I don't think the team has to worry about the bullpen. I realize that sounds crazy to most people, but it's true.

Jack - I agree to a point but look at the guys who would have been here and been given innings if they hadn't signed Adams/Durbin:

- Stutes
- Valdes
- Rosenberg
- Schwimer (if they hadn't traded him which I doubt they would have unless they signed Durbin)
- Savery
- Diekman
- Robles
- C. Jimenez

At least 3 of these guys would have made the Opening Day roster. That's a recipe for mediocrity and even disaster.

I forgot to add Miner and Friend (two guys who have no business on a MLB roster on a playoff contender).

Phils led league in reliever K/9 last year. While its not everything, it sure is a good sign of potential.

Phils were 5th in NL last year in reliever xFIP.

Phils' bullpen was also 13th in BB/9 and dead last in % GB (in part because of a bunch of their younger arms don't have good enough offspeed stuff to translate into GB outs).

Take Papelbon out of the mix and the team bullpen numbers are pretty damn ugly.

Pete Orr is DH'ing today. Good ol ST.

Adams is just "fine"? C'mon man.

Also- that SB article was dumb. How is the Phillies getting Michael Young worse than what the Marlins did? Also- I don't particularly like the Delmin Young signing but it is relatively low money for a guy hoping he breakouts. That isn't a bad deal.

I'm going to say that Heather referencing Abreu out of the blue is a case of trolling ;-)

Just look at that list of relievers I listed above. Look at their MLB stats as a group last year, their projections for his year, and how these guys are getting pasted the first week of spring training by a bunch of mediocre hitters.

Thought people who said this season was deep in young talented bullpen arms who were MLB ready were delusional last spring and I think the same thing this spring.

If Adams goes down or isn't ready, they are back in the same place they were last year when Contreras went down.

When a bunch of regulars start complaining about Beerleaguer dying post-JW, I'll start listening.

The site thrives on the intelligent comment threads. Good posts are nice, and all, but certainly not the life blood of Beerleaguer.

MG: No doubt losing Adams would hurt since he's penciled in as our 8th inning guy. Without him, we're likely back to hoping Bastardo, Aumont and De Fratus get the job done.

"I know it's a preaseason list, but the Young trade really needs to be looked at midseason, since they're counting on him rebounding from last year's horrible year."

I wouldn't have put him on my top 10 list either. I thought it was an ok one-year stop-gap, but with a caveat. The caveat is: I'm making a leap of faith that, because he used to be a shortstop, his defense is at least somewhat better than advertised. If early spring training returns are any indication, my leap of faith may prove unwarranted.

MG - Although you have a good point, I'm not taking too much stock in relievers first appearance in spring. It's all about repeating delivery and release points. Location and speed have no bearing at this point.

"I don't particularly like the Delmin Young signing but it is relatively low money for a guy hoping he breakouts. That isn't a bad deal."

Yes it is. In order to find out if he's going to break out, you have to actually play him in games. And, since he's going to miss all of spring training, those games have to be real ones. So, if the Philllies' "breakout" theory is wrong (as it almost surely will be), Delmon Young is going to cost us real games.

Just because a guy is cheap does not mean he's a good acquisition. Delmon Young could be free and he would still be a bad acquisition.

Redburb - I wouldn't either especially since it is just the first appearance for these guys. Just that there isn't a bunch of younger talented arms and Amaro took a solid approach to the bullpen this offseason going with a mix of solid arms and younger ones.

I just didn't like the Durbin signing given the alternatives and though trading away Schwimer from a position where the Phils don't have much organizational depth right now wasn't a well-advised move.

***Nix to start year: .326/.392/.587
Nix after injury: .191/.263/.294
***

There's zero chance that either of those splits had anything to do with sample size.

BAP, I believe he was referencing MICHAEL Young, since both Youngs made that SBNation list.

Fat: Nope. He said "I don't particularly like the Delmin Young signing but it is relatively low money for a guy hoping he breakouts."

Phils have 1 maybe 2 younger relievers at AA and above that could turn out be anything more than mediocre middle relievers (Aumont, De Fratus). I am including a bunch of relievers who are likely to start the year at Reading including K. Simon, Knigge, etc.

Same last spring as it was this spring.

MG - If Keith Law is to be believed, Ken Giles is the real deal and adds an arm to that depth that could make an impact as early as this season. I don't know how much I agree with it but it's something to consider.

If Durbin stinks, he'll be cut loose. I also think there may be some arms that shake loose at the end of ST that could be had for nothing to stash at LV.

BAP, my apologies. I thought you were replying to Bed Beard's 11:20 post.

MG: I don't get the pining for Schwimer. He seems to be the definition of fungible to me. I just can't imagine a scenario in which we'll say, "Man, I wish we still had Michael Schwimer."

KAS - If they give those innings to Savery or Rosenberg, then yeah I would have rather had Schwimer.

A big upgrade? Certainly not but on a team that is likely going to be fighting tooth & nail to get to the playoffs incremental things this year are going to really loom large.

That is some questionable logic to me BAP. A bad signing to me is years plus money to a guy. Young at two years is bad to me- at one it is somewhat irritating.

MG: First, I don't see many if any innings going to those two guys. Second, even if they did, I don't see Schwimer delivering better production than they would. It would all be average to below average. I don't believe in Schwimer's stuff at all.

Fat: Actually, my 11:43 post was in response to BB's 11:20 post.

It does get pretty confusing trying to keep track of which posts are in response to which point. In the legal reporters, they use a headnote system, in which they assign a number to each key point in the case. This allows you to actually look up not only which subsequent cases cited People v. Smith, but which specific point they cited it for. I think Beerleaguer needs a similar system, so we can keep meticulous track of what each poster has said in the past. Personally, I think clout already maintains such a system on his home computer, but he refuses to share it as part of the public domain.

BAP: Because Delmon Young is going to miss ST, those ABs are likely to come at the minor-league level during his rehab starts. If he comes back late April and "the replacements" are doing well, while he struggles to paste even extended ST or AA/AAA pitchers, I don't think he's going to get a ton of playing time when he returns to the MLB team.

For that matter, I would think the FO would try to send him back to the DL with the argument that he's obviously not healed yet if he can't even take lower-level minor leaguers to task.

What's the depth chart look like for the BP?

Locks:
Paps, Adams, Bastardo, Durbin

Fighting for a spot:
Aumont, DeFratus, Stutes, Diekman, Horst, Valdes

Depth (AA or AAA):
Rosenberg, Savery, Simon, Knigge, Friend, Ramirez, Lopez, Miner, Cook, Jimenez, Robles

Names to know:
Giles

Also bringing up Pettibone, Morgan or Cloyd (highly doubt Cloyd) could push Kendrick or Lannan to the pen. I get what MG is saying in regard to other options being out there, but I wouldn't fret over it too much because the pen seems deeper than last year. MG is saying there's not a ton of upside in any of these arms and that is true.

Schwimer was really good at pointing up at home run balls as if they were pop-ups... so there's that.

IMO:
Schwimer > Savery
Schwimer ~ Rosenberg

If someone can teach Rosenberg how to effectively throw a freaking breaking pitch, then:
Schwimer < Rosenberg

Also, Sol Rosenberg > BJ Rosenberg

TTI: So, if the Phillies signed an utterly terrible player like, say, Chris Volstad, and let him pitch in real, live regular season games, you would be ok with the move so long as they didn't sign him for more than one year?

Thanks to the Delmon Young injury, our young players have a chance to keep him off the roster. He'll need to get healthy and do some rehab before he could be "ready" to join the big club.

If Dom Brown and/or Darin Ruf and/or John Mayberry Jr. perform well enough to keep Young off the roster that would be great!

If one or more struggle, there's no reason to NOT give the chance to Young.

DeFratus, Aumont, Horst round it out pretty well to me.

This has been stated numerous times. The issue with the Delmon Young signing was *never* the years or the money. Anyone, like TTI, arguing about the years/money is arguing against a completely irrelevant point.

The issue is that they signed a really bad player and are likely to play him a good amount. That's the issue. It could be a 1-year deal for $1, but if you waste 75 starts on a terrible player, it's still a bad deal.

KAS: There's struggling, and there's struggling worse than Delmon Young struggles his whole career.

Philli: Rehab stints are only 10 games. That's not really enough time to test anything. Besides, we already know Delmon Young can hit minor league pitching. At one time, he was the No. 1 prospect in baseball.

In any event, my point would stand even if Delmon Young were NOT injured & were playing in spring training games. Because the problem is: anything can happen over 80 spring training ABs, many of which are against minor league pitching. So if you sign someone to "compete for the job," and that someone already has a major league track record which tells you he can't do the job, then all you're doing is setting yourself up to have a crappy player possibly win the starting job. We lived through this experience only a few years ago when Chan Ho Park was given a chance to win a spot in the starting rotation & then went out and did so. Then, when the real games started, he was flat-out awful -- as anyone who viewed his track record could have predicted.

lorecore: I get what you are saying, but as recently as 2010, he had a 124 OPS+ with 21 HR and 112 RBI and he's only 27 years old.

If our young players struggle, there's no reason to NOT see what Young can do. This team believes it should compete this year for another WS. If we get bad production from a corner OF spot and Young returns healthy, we might as well see what he can do.

Am I optimistic about Young? Not in the least.

Delmon Young being hurt and starting the season on the DL was arguably the best news so far of the spring.

Young could help this team in a limited role (PT player who faced LHP in LF and as a bat off the bench).

Issue is the Phils have 2 guys who already can do that in Mayberry and Ruf with Mayberry being a clearly superior option defensively, on the basepaths, and from a power perspective vs LHP.

I know Mayberry gets plenty of hate but he's a useful tool if used properly. Think Ruf will be too at the MLB level (1B/DH type who ideally plays in the AL and generally only starts vs LHP).

I get that a lot of people don't have faith that the FO or Charlie will pull a terrible veteran in favor of a younger, unproven guy. That the reasoning behind it is "Charlie plays vets, period."

And I think there's some validity to the idea.

However, the number of people assuming that Young is going to play "a good amount" or "a significant amount" is somewhat baffling to me. Ruben signed him literally days after saying "we really need our young guys to step up and fight for positions." In fact, he did so with the knowledge that Young was likely to miss significant quantities of ST on the DL.

If the young guys are terrible, there's zero harm in Young playing. If the young guys do really well, there's zero need to play Young.

Charlie likes his vets, but he also likes playing "the hot bat." Even when it's become apparent said bat has started to cool off.

As for the Phils odds, I would definitely take the over the -130 at 83.5 I have seen instead of 84.5 at -125.

I still want to see another 2 weeks of this team in spring training though to have a better read on how they will look early on before I make my annual Phils' wager.

I agree with MG. Mayberry is just about an ideal 4th OF. He does basically what Delmon Young was signed to do, only better.

The Delmon Young signing was a bad signing for the exact reason that article pointed out.

He has NO redeeming qualities.

Defense: Awful
Baserunning: Awful
Off-field character: Poor to awful
Hitting: Poor to awful

What does he bring to the table?

BAP: The point isn't whether Young used to be able to hit minor leaguers. Heck, in one season he was able to hit major leaguers. The question is whether he can do so now.

If so (and mind you, he'll be doing so at the beginning of his ST while the guys he'll be doing it against will be already through their STs), then he'll be on the 25-man. If that's late April and Domonic is hitting .312/.358/.410, do you really think that Brown will get pulled to start Young just because Young is older? And I mean really think that, not just in an "I think Manuel could do something that stupid" sense.

Because I just don't see that.

Especially if he doesn't hit the MiLB guys he faces in his rehab games (incidentally, it's not just 10 games there's a 20-day rehab period, which with extended ST included likely means closer to 15-17 games).

Don't know if anyone was able to answer the other day.

If Delmon Young is on the DL, do his weight related bonuses still kick in? Because he could potentially cost a few million more if he's injured and keeping his weight down. Nice gig if you can get it.

Didn't like the MYoung move because he's likely to be lousy, but at least I understand the rationale behind it. The DYoung move totally baffles me.

AKSmith: While I don't know if they do or not, the fact that it's his ankle (so no running, no cycling, etc.) would likely make it harder to keep his weight down than if he were healthy and on the active roster.

Also, don't all of his weight-related bonuses max out at 600K? Not really a few million more... But that's more a semantic argument.

Phillibuster - You may be right about the number. It may have been three 250K bonuses, but I'm not sure of that. Yes, the couple of million was incorrect. I think that includes some performance/playing time related bonuses as well.

I think there were 6 weigh-ins in all... Each one worth 100K (maybe 200?).

Ah, here we go.

"According to the Associated Press, Young will be weighed by the Phillies six times this season and each time that he's within the agreed-upon weight, he'll receive $100,000 on top of of the $750,000 for which he signed."

Most of his bonuses were PA related and time on the active roster.

I imagine being on the DL will help him cut down on all of the "good luck cakes," however.

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