Dom Brown an unknown at age 25 ... so what?

If Domonic Brown is to have an everyday job for the 2013 Phillies, he'll have to earn it in spring training. With 147 games under his belt, Brown hasn't yet consistently impressed, but don't write him off just yet. Several other successful big-leaguers had very similar starts to their careers.

Brown has hit .236/.315/.388 in 492 plate appearances for the Phillies, with 12 homers, 24 doubles and five steals in seven attempts. It's essentially a full-season's worth of plate appearances spread out across three partial stints.

Those obviously aren't good numbers for a corner outfielder, especially one who has also been a liability running routes. Brown's patience at the plate has been a redeeming quality; he has a 10.4% walk rate, while the league average the last two seasons has been 8%.

It wouldn't be unprecedented for Brown, at age 25, to approach the expectations many had for him. Here are some players who can attest to that, having struggled like Brown during their age 22-24 seasons:

Miguel Montero: The Diamondbacks' catcher has been an elite offensive performer at his position the last four seasons, but his first three partial years were nothing special. He hit .239/.309/.411 from ages 22-24. Staggeringly similar numbers to Brown's .236/.315/.388 line.

Miguel Tejada: Tejada won an MVP at age 28. Four years prior, when he was Brown's age, Tejada was a .226/.286/.373 hitter in just over 500 plate appearances. Like Brown, Tejada was a top-10 prospect, league-wide, by Baseball America.

Aaron Rowand: The former Phillies centerfielder did very little in his first two seasons, hitting .268/.325/.405 in 479 plate appearances. A bit more contact than Brown, but not much more discipline or power.

Eric Hosmer: Hosmer showed flashes of potential superstardom in 2011, when he hit .293 with 19 homers and a .799 OPS for the Royals. Last season, though, he dipped to .232/.304/.359 with 14 homers -- numbers Brown would have projected out to over a full 2012 season.

Cliff Floyd: From ages 25-32, Floyd was the definition of steady, batting .289 with a .885 OPS and averages of 23 homers, 32 doubles and 14 steals. But from ages 22-24? Floyd hit .222/.326/.393. Again, almost an exact match for Brown's slash-line to this point.

Aubrey Huff: He hit .257 with a .683 OPS in his first two years. Then Huff figured things out and hit .291 with an .846 OPS and 25 homers per year the next seven seasons.

Aside from Hosmer, all of these players have in common poor starts to what turned into successful careers. None of them truly are direct matches to Brown's skill set, but many have pieces of his game. Hosmer and Huff have the lefthanded power swing. Hosmer and Tejada have the prospect pedigree. Montero has the uncharacteristic swing. Floyd had the tools.

If Brown can turn into any of them offensively, the Phillies will be thrilled after three stints and no lasting impressions.

The key is to not get wrapped up in the moment. Plenty of players figured things out after their 25th birthday.

Comments

[Todd]

I have no idea what scouts have seen in this guy and hope we can trade him while he still may be worth a few cents. He doesn't look comfortable or natural in the field or the batter's box. Just a lot of hype. Everyone in this organization and on this board gives this guy free pass after free pass every year. Oh, he's young, oh he's not polished... what about that he looks like a total goofball on the field and in the box? Trade him as soon as possible, if anyone will give us anything for him.

[Numberwang]

dude is a ZERO. he will never post a WAR above 2

trade him NOW Rube

[Mike]

Dom hasn't even had a full season because Ruben and the rest of the FO don't know what the f*ck they should do with him. Give him a full season before you send him off to another team. Bouncing him between AAA and the MLB hasn't helped him.

[RK]

The Phils have shown little patience with young players and CM likes retreads he can count on.

[Zudok]

Dom Brown will hit 25 HRs for the Phillies in 2013. His time has arrived and he's due some good fortune.

[aksmith]

They absolutely have to give Brown a chance to succeed or fail at the major league level this season. He should be healed from his hamate fracture now. And hopefully the knee injury of last season is healed. If he can stay healthy, they need to park him in right field and keep him there.

I'd say the chances of him getting a real shot are very slim, however, after watching this organization operate recently.

Oh, and please take Tejada off the comp list, unless Domonic will be using some strange new injections to suddenly tap into his power. That guy is exhibit number one in the juice parade. And I'm not making any moral judgments on juicing. Don't want to open up that subject again. But please.

[RedBurb]

Well this could be a nice topic to discuss. Of course for some reason, Brown is a lightning rod of criticism when it comes to certain fans. I guess they expect every prospect to turn into Mike Trout right off the bat.

As disappointed as I have been in Brown's development, writing him off at this point is the definition of stupidity. Also trading him would be trading him at a point when his value is low, also a stupid thing to even consider.

I do believe that with regular reps, assuming he can stay healthy (which is a big assumption at this point), he can be a contributor on this team.

[Michael Martinez, Professional Baseball Player]

Hey, as long as we're preaching patience...

[Will Schweitzer]

The time to trade Dom has long since passed. It would be foolish to move him now, with his value at the lowest point it has ever been in his professional career.

At this point, they stand to gain far more by keeping him.

[MG]

Brown actually being 100% healthy would be a nice start. He's had some bad luck/ill health for the past 2 years.

[rolo]

While the 2013 performance of Halladay, Howard, and Utley will have more to do with the success of the 2013 Phillies, they probably need, at the very least, average performance as a whole from whomever occupies the corner OF spots - platoon or no platoon.

Brown certainly has the athleticism, but does he have the health and confidence?

[ColonelTom]

I agree with Will - no point in moving Brown for peanuts now. Play him and let's see what he's got.

[rolo]

Discussing what we expect Brown to do, ties right into this article over at espn.com (linked at mlbtr) that discusses advanced metrics, and how the Cardinals use them.

Mozeliak:

"It is a diverse group, and that group is looking at how to best combine advanced metrics as well as traditional scouting."

"Now we're able to combine these advanced stats with the ability now to really create a model that gives us sort of recommendations on contracts, salary and length," he said. "When you start thinking about things like the aging curve -- that is something I think 20, 30 years ago when players were signing contracts, they were signing contracts for what they accomplished -- now people are signing contracts for what you expect them to do."

[Jack]

I've long been a Dom Brown fan and supporter. Still, I understood that the Pence move in 2011 (and then starting 2012) was one the team felt they had to do--they were contending for a WS title and the chance to upgrade the RF spot. I argued at the time they should've benched Raul and played Dom in left, but still, I understood the move (though they obviously overpaid for Pence).

What I don't understand is why they wouldn't give him every opportunity now. First off, the only path to a WS title for this team includes some very pleasant surprises, so why not take a chance on your most talented prospect of the last few years being one of those? At the least, it's a good hedging strategy against the increasingly likely odds that the team isn't really a contender. Second, there's just no one better to play. Delmon Young? Stop it. If you're replacing Dom with Hunter Pence, it may or may not be the right decision based on where your team is, but at least you can clearly say that Pence is the better player. But it *never* makes sense to bench Dom for Delmon freaking Young.

And the most apt comparison might be someone not named on this list--Alex Gordon. A hyped prospect who mostly fizzled through age 26, before turning in All-Star quality performances at ages 27 and 28. He is similar to Dom in that, even when struggling, he always showed good plate discipline, flashing walk rates around 11% most seasons.

[Jack]

rolo: Amaro laughs at that theory. "I don't care about what a guy is expected to do--I care about how many RBIs he had three years ago."

[Wangernumbed]

haha.. numberwang

[Jack]

rolo: More on Mozeliak.

"There are several versions of WAR out there, and while he looks at all of them, he does have a favorite.

"I use our own internal system, because that's what I'm most familiar with and also in the past five, six years I feel like we've made very good decisions based on it," Mozeliak said. "My confidence in it is very strong."

The Cardinals developed their own formula for WAR? What nerds. Don't they know that's just for people who don't actually watch games? Man, what losers. They'll clearly never have any success.

[jr]

MG..agree with you.Not sure Brown has been 100% healthy.Should give him at least 1/2 year to play himself out of a job.
Unless there is an emergency (Galvis for Utes} Phils just don'rt give youngsters much of a chance.

[clout]

Anyone projecting 25 HRs from Dom Brown knows nothing of Brown's skill set.

Maybe, at the absolute peak of his career, he could hit 25. But he projects as a high-OB, high-AVG guy with good speed and 15-20 HR power.

He's had injury issues and defense issues and fastball-on-the-hands issues. But none of those is insurmountable and the tools are clearly there.

I still think he ends up an everyday player at some point. Whether he holds the job depends on how much he can improve his defense and whether he's a .270 hitter or a .300 hitter. If, at age 28, he shows himself to be poor on defense with modest power and a BA of .270, then he will spend his career as a 4th outfielder.

[rolo]

Oops, here's the link to the Mozeliak interview:

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/32471/how-the-cardinals-use-sabermetrics

[Jack]

Based on the skills he showed in the minors, Brown always projected to be, in a good scenario, most like Nick Markakis or Shin Soo-Choo.

Markakis (career): .295/.365/.455
Choo (career): .289/.381/.465

The kind of hitter who was good, but not great, across the board. Good average, good plate discipline, average power, and decent speed.

[Fan from Fifty]

I am underwhelmed by Corey Seidman's lede. To select six (SIX!) fielders out of the hundreds who have come up to the majors in recent memory is an extraordinarily Small Sample Size.

It would take some effort (which I'm unwilling to expend), but I suspect that given some quasi-objective measure of "underwhelming performance" in the first extended appearance (based on years or at-bats or whatever) of all young (under 25) players, the vast majority would continue their mediocrity (or even decline) past their 25th year, should they even have the luck to continue their careers.

Cherry picking!

[Jack]

I do think that players with that sort of skillset are generally underrated. The ability to be average to above-average across the board is often more valuable than simply being great at one thing.

It's the difference between, say, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. Utley has no skill as good as Ryan Howard's power, but is the more valuable player because he does so many things well.

[rolo]

Jack, as Mozeliak clearly says in teh interview, advanced metrics are not the be-all and end-all in baseball.

However, it lloks as though the Cards understand their utility and embrace what said metrics CAN bring to the table as opposed to the Phillies (and RAJ's) seeming dismissal of them as something to be given no more than cursory attention.

[MG]

Brown deserves a full year this year to prove himself. Defensively I think he is always going to be a liability due to the path he takes to hit balls & his initial reactions. He's had 4 years now as a corner OF to really improve on that. It was still an issue last year.

Brown is either going to hit for enough power and up his overall stats vs LHP this year to prove he should be a everyday starter at the MLB level or not.

[MG]

I would love to see Brown run a bit this year too and end up with at least 13-15 SBs. I understood why he didn't last year with his right leg problems.

No reason he shouldn't be able to do that if he gets 400-450 ABs this year.

[Will Schweitzer]

clout: I guess all of those scouting reports that talked about his raw power and compared his swing to Darryl Strawberry were just a figment of everyone's imagination. Now, suddenly he's a high average guy...without the high average.

Then again, why listen to the scouts when we have random internet know-it-all to tell us what's what.

[Jack]

rolo: "Jack, as Mozeliak clearly says in teh interview, advanced metrics are not the be-all and end-all in baseball."

But of course (and no one would argue otherwise). It only makes my point even stronger--if a team that embraces balance between using metrics and other aspects of their evaluation and business process does something like come up with their own version of WAR, isn't that an even bigger indictment of Amaro and the Phillies? They're not just behind the most advanced teams--they're far behind even the teams that came late to using this stuff and only use it in part of what they do.

I mean, the Cardinals are just about as successful an organization as you can get--two WS titles in the last seven years, they've made the playoffs more often than not the last decade and a half, and they have the top farm system in baseball. They would seem to have a pretty credited model for doing business over there.

[Joe D]

The most disappointing thing for me in watching Brown (other than the Phillies dreadful handling of him) has been the absence of power at the big league level. But I think the fact that he has a good eye and has shown some good patience bodes well for him eventually taping back into that power. This has to be the year. He has to play. No more jerking him around. This team needs to fall into a cost-controlled producing player and a possible centerpiece for the next few years as the core just gets older and older.

[Cyclic]

Did clout say that Brown has already reached the peak of his career?

[Mini Mart]

Heh, an unknown at age 25? Are you kidding me, amigo??? I'm an unknown at age 37, uhhh, I mean 29! And I'm infinitely more versatile than that stiff!!!

[NEPP]

***clout: I guess all of those scouting reports that talked about his raw power and compared his swing to Darryl Strawberry were just a figment of everyone's imagination. Now, suddenly he's a high average guy...without the high average***

To be fair (and damn you for making me defend clout here), the Strawberry comps had more to do with his appearance and build as a skinny tall LHB than actual upside...as a good number of scouts pointed out even when they were making those comps.

His upside has always been 15-20 HRs with a good average.

[clout]

Will: "I guess all of those scouting reports that talked about his raw power and compared his swing to Darryl Strawberry were just a figment of everyone's imagination. Now, suddenly he's a high average guy...without the high average.

Then again, why listen to the scouts when we have random internet know-it-all to tell us what's what."

Your ignorance of baseball remains breathtaking. I've never read a single scouting report that projected Brown as a big time HR hitter.

His ceiling was pretty much as Jack described: Good average, good plate discipline, average power, and decent speed. Brown has a career minor league BA of .296, so, yes, he does have high average potential.

Strawberry hit 39 HRs, pre-steroids. Brown couldn't come remotely close to that at any level.

Do your homework man and someday you'll have a shred of credibility.

[rolo]

Jack, we don't disagree. You're just being a little more vociferous in your indictment of the Phillies FO than am I.

What the Phillies have done as an organization the last decade has been admirable, and they've benn successful, despite the bad taste the injury-riddled 2012 season.

And they've have a fairly highly rated farm system in recent years - at least until the Lee/Halladay/Pence trades. For instance, how highly rated would their system be if they still had Singleton, D'Arnaud, Cosart, and Santana in the fold?

So, they have been successful, but you are correct in identifying that as other teams move ahead with what are perhaps more advanced and comprehensive methods of evaluating players, they could be left behind.

[Jbird]

This would be an excellent season for Brown to suddenly rediscover his ability to play baseball. I'm hopeful.

[Willard Preacher]

I'm not yet ready to give up on the guy as his previous "yo yo" experience is largely the byproduct of injuries and subsequent recovery time.

That said, if he's "injury prone" we'll obviously have an issue. Here's hoping his susceptibility to injury pans out the same way Cole Hamels' did, back when he was an injury liability waiting to happen.

[GTown_Dave]

"Dom Brown" & "Full Year" are incompatible ideas. He'll never stay healthy that long.

[Dragon]

Put me down with the "Give Brown this year to prove himself" group. If he pans out, he will be a young, cheap fix for the Phillies outfield mess.

[rolo]

Ahhhh, it never fails.

Just when some people on BL may be feeling down in the dumps, GTown shows up with his usual ray of sunshine to brighten their day.

[Jack]

rolo: "For instance, how highly rated would their system be if they still had Singleton, D'Arnaud, Cosart, and Santana in the fold?"

Sure, but one could also ask whether a smarter front office would have ever traded Singleton, Cosart and Santana for Hunter Pence at that time.

[J. Weitzel]

I'll add another obvious one: Chase Utley. Age 25, was seen as someone who couldn't field the position or hit lefties and righties. He was basically buried until he turned 26. Similar number of chances as Dom thru age 25.

[aksmith]

I wonder what the Phillies will get for Ben Revere after Gillies makes him obsolete?

2014 outfield: Ruf, Gillies, Brown.

Is it just me, or can anyone read the first sentence of a post and know it's Clout without looking at the bottom of the post?

[The Hook]

I'm still in on brown. Hope he gets "it" and becomes the player we hope he can be.

[docjoe]

Either they should play Dom everyday to see if he can play either in the majors/AAA or unload him. Has never had a chance to play a full season since A or AA days. The braves gave Heyward a chance and he struggles at times. Phils hold young guys back not to accumulate major league time stunting there growth plus we had a win now team in the past. Now might be the time to play Dom.

[Jack]

JW: Good point. Through age 25, Utley had a .257/.313/.436 line in 439 PAs, good for a 91 OPS+

Through age 24, Brown has a 90 OPS+ in 492 PAs. And, as you note, they also had the same positional and defense questions.

Sure, there's probably just as many, or more, examples of guys who simply never panned out (Brandon Wood, Andy LaRoche, etc.). But it is worth remembering all the guys who did pan out, before we just write off Dom.

[sneed]

"It's the difference between, say, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. Utley has no skill as good as Ryan Howard's power, but is the more valuable player because he does so many things well."

Actually, Utley does (did) everything elite. Brown does everything above average. You can have a lot of Brown's and be good, but you'll need a Chase Utley or two (ahem, Jimmy Rollins) in their prime to be great.

[NEPP]

In his peak years, Utley was probably the #2 player in baseball behind Pujols...so he did quite a few things well.

[Will Schweitzer]

Phuture Phillies
http://phuturephillies.com/profiles/graduated-prospects/of-brown-domonic/

Tools Breakdown
Hit For Average: 55/60
Hit For Power: 55/65
Fielding: 45/55
Throwing Arm: 60/65
Speed: 55/60

Summary: Brown is a well rounded prospect, with the potential for 4 plus tools at his peak, with potential to hit 30-35 HR per season in his prime. He struggled at times in his MLB debut, but it was a small sample of ABs, and he wasn’t getting regular playing time. The only tool that currently rates as below average is his fielding, as he often struggles on routes to fly balls. His arm is above average, and will be a weapon as he gains experience.

Upside: With the emergence of his power, Brown has the capability to hit 30 HR, and even that might be conservative. He doesn’t have massive problems with strikeouts, and should make enough contact to hit .275-.295, maybe even hitting .300+ in a given season. What he will lose in batting average he should make up for in walks, as he has a good idea and feel for the strike zone. Without a platoon split, Brown should play every day, and could hit anywhere from 3rd to 5th in the lineup during his prime.

-----------------------------------------

Now, I'm not saying that he is or isn't a 25+ HR threat (I'd be pleased if he could become an everyday corner OF, so my expectations are quite low), but for clout to assert that no one in their right mind could ever have seen power potential based on his skill set is flat out wrong.

In fact, every scouting report that I found had something to say about his raw power.

[GTown_Dave]

Dom Brown isn't the next Chase Utley. He isn't even the next Jeff Stone. Might as well let him prove he can't do anything, though. It's not like he'll be the sole reason -- or even the main reason -- the Phillies won't make the Postseason.

[Mike G]

Dave, if you truely believe everything you write, you should find a new team to root for. I know I would.

[lorecore]

todd: "[DOM] doesn't look comfortable or natural in the field or the batter's box."

DOM has given his critics plenty holes in his game to attack, but "not looking comfortable in the batter's box" isn't one of them.

Even while struggling, Brown gets good looks at the ball. As someone mentioned earlier, he has a weakness for hard stuff up and in - just like about 90% of the LHB in the league - but there isn't many other pitches he can't handle. He rarely chases bad pitches and stays back well on offspeed pitches that are in the zone.

His "look" in the box is why i'm still optimistic on his future.

[GTown_Dave]

Mike G: On the contrary. Philadelphia is ideal for my temperament. It's the unrelenting optimists who are entirely out of place rooting for this franchise.

[cut_fastball]

Mike G: On the contrary. Philadelphia is ideal for my temperament. It's the unrelenting optimists who are entirely out of place rooting for this franchise.

Posted by: GTown_Dave | Monday, February 04, 2013 at 07:36 PM

Boy oh boy... only 2 World Championships in what, at least 130 years of existence?... GTown has a realistic, long-term view. God bless the optimists that populate this site, for they are darn good in the face of so much contrary history? evidence?

Why I still root for these guys – and live and die with each loss – baffles the bejeezus out of me.

[Willard Preacher]

It beats the hell out of rooting for the Yankees!

[pblunts]

GTown, I hope you are trying to be clever or show your knowledge of semi-obscure, once-hyped Phillies outfielders in your failed attempt to compare Brown to a guy like Jeff Stone. Because even for you, seemingly the king of negativity rooting for a team whose fans patented the mindset, that's just a stupid comp.

Dude, we're all fans here (I think, haven't some accused you of being a troll?) so lighten up, take a deep breath and take a view from the other side of the glass, the one that's half full. I know it's hard sometimes being a Phillies fan, but chillax man. Where can I send you a "Life is Good" t-shirt?

[Brett]

Is a one-year deal for Bourn the odds-on favorite at this point? How would he fit onto this team and how likely does it seem we'll actually make an offer?

I'm of the opinion that he would be worth it at one year. He turns your outfield into an elite defense (accentuating the team's true strength--pitching), and pushes Jimmy to the bottom-half of the lineup.

Also, concerns of losing a draft pick are, in all likelihood, negated by his ability to net another 1st round draft pick when he walks after 2013.

[Will Schweitzer]

No one here is a "troll". We're all fans. Some of us, however, have regressed to the lame name calling of middle school children as a form of counter argument from time to time (myself included).

When I see the word "troll", I picture the type of person who types LOLZ Epic Fail from their cell phone on recess.

[rolo]

GTown probably sits in a darkened room with the radio on listening to Phillies games. Coming into the light is a thought that has never occured to him

[The Truth Injection]

pblunts: clever and knowledge are not adjectives ever used to describe GTown Dave.

I think it is humorous that people are writing the eulogy on Brown's career after 492 plate appearances. For one, he has never been given a shot where they said "This is your job- sink or swim." He came up in 2010 to help cover for some injuries. In 2011 he got yanked out of the spot for Hunter Pence, and last year they started him in Triple A.

He needs to be told in spring training. this is your chance, make it count. And then you stick with him. Find out what you have so you know what type of asset he is going forward. That right there is one reason it is imperative you get healthy seasons from some of the other regulars. You can give yourself some leeway with Brown as an everyday starter.

[clout]

Will: I stand corrected. If Phuture Phillies says Brown is a future 35 HR hitter, then it must be so. Their scouting reports are considered the gold standard throughout MLB.

[Who am I?]

.227/.319/.389

In 456 PA I put up the above numbers in my second MLB season.

Who am I?

[Bubba]

Rollins led the Phils with 68 RBI last year.

I knew this on some level, but looking on the Phils site and seeing that as the team leading number, brings out the inner Harry Doyle.
Thats all we got, 68 bleeping RBIs .

[Bubba]

Who am I

Mike Schmidt??

[Dragon]

Some folks see the glass as half full, some see the glass as half empty and some are convinced that the Phillies have been secretly stealing water from their glass and must be punished.

[The Truth Rejector]

Anybody going to mention Tejada's steroid use? The rumors about Rowand as well? Anyway, maybe Galvis can help Brown "train".

[rolo]

Murph looks at the hils' 2013 rotation:

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20130205_David_Murphy__Early_look_at_Phillies__starting_rotation.html

[R.Billingsly]

Bubba pointing out that Rollins lead the team with 68 RBI last year had me thinking, so I looked at a few numbers really quickly.

2012:
Rollins: 699 PA, 68 RBI (.097 RBI/PA)

Howard: 292, 56 RBI (.192 RBI/PA)
Utley: 301 PA, 45 RBI (.150 RBI/PA)

I know RBIs mean nothing (or so I'm told), but it sure would be nice to have those two for 145+ games driving in runs.

[rolo]

RBill, don't worry, GTown will bw along straightaway to tell you how useless it is to drive in runs.

[MG]

The two biggest issues to me with Brown are his health (he's had his share of leg muscle ailments at times) and his ability to make the necessary adjustments to hit LHP at the MLB level because you have pitchers who are good enough control on there fastball to pit in on the inner part of the plate if they want.

He's also going to be an underwhelming defender. Even AVG wise, I don't ever expect him to be a .300 hitter at the MLB level but a corner OF who hits .280 who takes his share of BBs, can hit 15-20 HRs, and steal 15-20 SBs has real value as long as he is cost-controlled.

I be happy if Brown turned into a solid everyday player at this point.

[MG]

If there are 2 guys on this team who have legit 'confidence' concerns though, it is Brown and Aumont.

It would be great if both guys could get out to solid starts early in the year because I do genuinely think that will make a notable difference in how their '13 seasons unfold.

[Fatalotti]

MG, why would Aumont have confidence issues? He pitched pretty well last year in limited innings. Seems his confidence should be sky high this year, especially if he's opening camp with the big league squad.

[Andy]

Tejada's numbers came out of a bottle.

[lorecore]

Yeah, i'm not sure Aumont's wildness is a confidence problem.

[lorecore]

Pirates getting Jonathan Sanchez on MiLB deal. Thats the kind of guys that you want to take fliers on, not Rodrigo Lopez.

[Mick O]

I wonder if Brandon Webb could teach BJ Rosenberg (or anyone else) his sinker.

[lorecore]

Like how Scott Mathieson was going to learn a splitter from Bruce Sutter.

[Jack]

I don't get why Chase Utley doesn't just teach Freddy Galvis how to hit.

[Mick O]

Pretty hilarious in retrospect, lorecore.

Teachin' ain't easy.

[Fatalotti]

Why doesn't anybody teach Michael Martinez to do something....anything, really?

[lorecore]

re: RBIs

Even in a pretty pathetic 2012 campaign, Howard still is such a great run producer, its uncanny. He used a +.200 ISO and a 1.044 OPS with RISP to rack up an impressive RBI total in his limited time.

Howard w/RISP: 1.4 K/BB ratio in 93 PA
Howard bases empty: 8.0 K/BB ratio in 142 PA

So before we even can consider the defensive shift, Howard already found a way to excel in high leverage situations last year

[rolo]

lorecore, I agreeon Sanchez, but he may actually make the Pirates opening day roster.

He, IMHO, has little chance of doing that in Philly, and probably knows it.

But, if you want to take the position that RAJ and the FO, at will, can sign anyone they want at their price, then please engage in that fantasy.

[rolo]

lore, never mind 2012, Ryan Howard's career splits:

Overall: .271/.364/.551, 4701 PA

RISP: .284/.415/.562, 1506 PA

Men On: .284/.394/.584, 2426 PA

Empty: .259/.331/.519, 2275 PA

That's a pretty significant improvement with men on base or RISP. (AAMOF, his OPS is the same in both situations.)

[MG]

falatotti - It was something that Dubee mentioned last spring and that was mentioned while Aumont was at Reading as a starter.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

It's not a big deal to me overall, and rolo's point above is important, but I do agree with MG on the Rodrigo Lopez signing. There is no reason to bring him in, even on a minor league deal. He's just a complete waste of a roster spot in AAA or anywhere. His signing showed a complete lack of creativity on RAJ's part.

Again, not a big deal, but part of a larger, concerning picture I see with RAJ.

[rolo]

Mick O, I suspect being able to teach someone something new athletically also depends on his own physiology.

Mathieson may not have the right kind of hands to throw a splitter. Maybe it requires long fingers or something of that nature? Fot the same reason, some guys never learn to (or are incapable) throw a curve ball. Or, they can't find a grip for a changeup that works for them.

That's why it's so amazing to watch a guy like Hamels, Lee or Halladay, who have command of multiple pitches and will throw any given pitch in any situation.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Keith Law's Top 100 prospects is out and there are FIVE Phillies on the list. Unfortunately, only 2 actually are in our system any more.

The highest on the list is way up at 92. And it's not who you think it is. Jesse Biddle is at 95.

Keith Law's favorite Phillie prospect?

Finesse lefty Adam Morgan.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

From Keith Law:

#95 Jesse Biddle
Biddle is the projection guy to complement fellow lefty Adam Morgan's higher probability in the Phillies' system, which has some depth but doesn't have a lot of guys close to the majors who will make an impact.

Biddle's stuff will be good enough that he should be a back-end starter even if his command never quite gets to average, but has the potential to be a No. 2 if it develops into a real strength. He takes a very long stride to the plate but still manages to finish well over his front side, so that solid-average velocity plays up because he's releasing the ball so much closer to the plate. His changeup has come a long way since his days at Philadelphia's Germantown Friends HS; it has good fade to his arm side and he's more confident in the pitch, doubling up on it to right-handers now that it's a weapon for him.

His delivery is good enough that refining his command is a matter of repetitions and of improving his mental approach to pitching as he matures, and until that happens he's got an adequate floor as a fourth or fifth starter candidate.

[rolo]

KAS, thanks.

BTW, how clairvoiyant are all of these evaluation services?

Has anyone ever measured their accuracy - that is, how accurate their evaluation and "prediction" is of a prospect's ceiling?

[jbird]

That's the lowest ranking I've seen on Biddle. Lots of list haven't come out yet obviously, but he should come in the 3rd quartile in most lists. Klaw hates the Phillies!!!

[Ryne Sanberg For Manager]

A's just swung deal w/ 'Stros and landed Lowrie. They gave up a catcher, etc. That deal may have been a prelude to trade with Rube and have Jed play third - NICE!!

[Sophist]

Has anyone ever measured their accuracy - that is, how accurate their evaluation and "prediction" is of a prospect's ceiling?

http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects

[Fatalotti]

It makes sense that the Astros would trade Lowrie. With the $2.4 M he was set to make this year, he was becoming far too expensive for the Astros.

[Shane]

On Pitching mechanics: Arm slot and pronation have a lot to do with influencing your grip when trying to throw a specific pitch. The same grip in different arm slots produce different results. Therefore, there are specific grips per arm slot that are optimal for a certain pitch, assuming pronation is the same.
When throwing a pitch, you are trying to throw the ball at a certain velocity-to-rotation ratio to achieve the maximum movement. Ratios above and below that produce less movement and sometimes no movement at all. Hence the expressions of "Hanging Curveball", "Hanging Slider", and "He's overthrowing the pitch."

[NEPP]

So...the Astros officially have zero MLB players now?

[NEPP]

On Biddle...as I've said before, he screams Randy Wolf 2.0 to me. If it happens, I'll be ecstatic as Wolfie was a solid starter for us.

[MG]

If Lowrie is healthy, this trade is a steal for the A's.

Problem is that Lawrie is NEVER healthy. Never played even 100 G in a season. Ridiculous how often he is injured.

Why I hated the idea of signing Chavez and having him likely spend a notable chunk of the season on the DL.

[jbird]

Chris Carter is a bit of a lotto ticket for the 'stros as well. BIG upside but a good possibility he doesn't reach it.

[lorecore]

Bud Norris making $3M is tops on
houston, which is below the current MLB average.

[NEPP]

Lowrie's other problem: He cannot hit RHP.

[NEPP]

Carter and Peacock for Lowrie is a big win for the Astros.