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Wednesday, January 16, 2013

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Competition for Lannan. Like Cruz, it's not a bad MiLB signing, but then I don't think there is such a thing as a bad MiLB signing.

As little as I thought of the Rodrigo Lopez signing, he's has more upside than Cook.

Cook was probably lucky to even catch on as a minor league signing. There was basically no interest in him that was reported besides the Rockies.

Really is just to fill a starter spot at Lehigh since the Phils have 1-2 openings there right now.

I have no problem with the Cook signing. We might need another starter. RoLo & Cruz? So what? Will our GM ever bring in another player who is not a pitcher?

MG - The Phils are still in on Hairston (based on the various rumors, anyway) and are probably waiting for him to give up on getting a 2-year deal.

"TTI - You don't think Amaro would sign Hairston to a 1-yr/~$3M deal if he had the financial flexibility after spending the entire offseason lamenting the lack of an RH OF power bat?"


MG, I'll answer for myself, not TTI:

No, I don't think he would. Not at THAT price.

It has been demonstrated numerous times on this board that the Phillies already have an almost identical player to Hairston on their roster - who plays better defense and costs far less.

Hairston adds value only in that he adds depth, not because he's a clear upgrade.

So, in that context do you think RAJ would spend $3MM just to add depth?


(I've already given my opinion.)

DPat: probably not. Signing Cook obviously signals that Amaro is never-ever going to sign another offensive player for the rest of his tenure with the team. /s

"As little as I thought of the Rodrigo Lopez signing, he's has more upside than Cook."

Granted, debating the upsides of Rodriguez Lopez versus Aaron Cook is like debating whether dog sh*t tastes better than cow sh*t. But Cook has more upside. In his prime, he was a much better pitcher than Rolo.

MG: I don't want Amaro to sign Hairston for ~3 million dollars. Not because "lack of revenue is a problem," but because- Mayberry is a better player than Hairston and is cheaper and we already have him.

Also- you always talk about guys out there and then give arbitrary numbers as to where they will sign which is fine but ignores the fact that, these things do not happen in a vacuum and the Phillies can play hardball with everyone. That isn't the way it works with free agents.

For example, you said they won't sign good relief options out there for around one million dollars and then specifically mentioned Lyon and Lindstrom.

Lindstrom last year made 3.6 million dollars and pitched to a 159 ERA+ -A career high- which broke the previous year's career high ERA+ of 152 he put up in Coors Field. That to you means he will take a 2.6 million dollar pay cut to pitch.

Lyon is coming off a season where he had a 134 ERA+ which was a nice bounceback off an injury shortened 2011. He made 5.5 million. You think he is gonna take a 4.5 million dollar pay cut.

And if you believe in fungible relievers then why would you spend 2-4 million on one of those guys (even at a year) when you have a bunch of young guys that could probably do an equal job (good or bad) for a much cheaper price.

There is something I have said to DPat a few times and I will say to you as well. Perhaps, just perhaps, Amaro is comfortable at this point with what they have to start the season and will look to add at mid-season if need be.

The Iron Pigs rotation is going to be boss.

Not surprisingly MG is turning his nose up at another MiL signing, which is something he was begging RAJ to do just days ago.

Unless he's getting Lohse on a MiL deal, he'll have a problem with every signing.

TTI - Hairston I can see not wanting him because of his RH bat. Seems like they will go with Brown as the everyday starter in RF initially and with some kind of platoon in LF with a combo of Nix and Ruf/Mayberry.

As for arbitrary figures, Hairston's agent just stated this week he is seeking 2 yr/$8M. Mets countered with 1 yr/$2M. That is publicly-reported information from credible sources that is easily verifiable.

Yeah I do think Lyon or Lindstrom would take a deal a guaranteed MLB deal that is the neighborhood of $1-$1.5M at this point. Lindstrom might make a bit more than that with incentive upside but Lyon is going to be lucky to get a guaranteed deal at this point with more and better options on the table yet.

You ask as if they things happen in a complete vacuum and that there aren't plenty of data sources that you can access & formulate relatively reasonable scenarios and probabilities.

Iceman - Pound sand. Cruz was a solid signing. Cook is filler and not very good filler at that.

BAP - Who would you rather see as a long-man out of the pen? I would go with Lopez. He still has the ability to get by in limited duration.

Cook's been horrendous the last 3 years. Probably tuck Cook at Lehigh to take Elarton's spot. Lopez will also likely start the year in the rotation there along with Cloyd, Pettibone, and Hyatt (maybe Cochran too if they resigned him).

I understand why Amaro signed Lopez & Cook. They are depth options and he needed to fill 1-2 spots at Lehigh.

I wasn't talking about Hairston MG. It is as if once you can't say something about revenue your mental program breaks. Also on your Hairston example I hope you are not so dense you can't see the fault in the argument you have put forward.

"You ask as if they things happen in a complete vacuum and that there aren't plenty of data sources that you can access & formulate relatively reasonable scenarios and probabilities."

__________________________________

Seriously dude- edit your writing. This is second grade gibberish. Also, I know what stuff is out there and I look at it a lot. You never look at people's performances and past contracts. Never do you ever think about that. You just say "We could get X for Y."

"Perhaps, just perhaps, Amaro is comfortable at this point with what they have to start the season and will look to add at mid-season if need be."

TTI~ He may be. But then he should come out and say he's "scared". He should just flat-out say he's not bringing in any other Of'ders and leave it at that, instead of flip-flopping.

I'm all for looking at mid-season, if they're in it. And that's a huge "if". He was wrong in not upgrading the offense last offeason, and IMO, he's about not upgrading the OF this off-season. It may come back to haunt him.

The MG vs. Iceman/TTI battle is beginning to escalate.

MG: I don't want either one of these stiffs pitching out of the pen but, if I had to pick one of them to be the long man, I'd rather have Rolo. Cook is poorly suited for the bullpen because relievers -- even long men -- sometimes need to miss bats.

I don't see either of these guys as bullpen candidates. I see them as starting pitching depth. If all the stars aligned right & both guys somehow returned to their prime form, Cook would be the much better pitcher. That's why I said he has more upside.

TTI~ He may be. But then he should come out and say he's "scared". He should just flat-out say he's not bringing in any other Of'ders and leave it at that, instead of flip-flopping.

I'm all for looking at mid-season, if they're in it. And that's a huge "if". He was wrong in not upgrading the offense last offeason, and IMO, he's about not upgrading the OF this off-season. It may come back to haunt him

____________

No he shouldn't just come out and say that. That would be giving up some negotiating leverage.

And please stop with the offense question from last year. The offense was fine last year, our pitching faltered big time last year- up and down the staff. That was the issue.

"The offense was fine last year."

Being 8th in a 16-team league is fine? Are we aspiring to be average?

BAP, not surprisingly completely misses the point. I have stated my opinion on the offense over and over from last year and no where have I ever said average is something to aspire to be. The offense wasn't the reason we tanked last year, it was the bullpen.

But have fun playing gotcha BAP. The very thing you criticize clout for.

TTI - It's mid-January and rosters are pretty much sent at this point.

Veteran MLB relievers like Lindstrom and Lyon are looking to get guaranteed deals at this point. If you go back and look the past 2 offseasons, veteran MLB relievers who are middle relievers who sign at this time get $1-$1.5M as a base with some incentive upside.

We'll see in another 3 weeks or so I am right on Lindstrom and Lyon getting $1M-$1.5M as a base or that they get significantly more. Decent chance Lyon might not even get a MLB guaranteed MLB deal at this point.

As for Nix, yeah I know he is LH and that Hairston is a guy who needs to be platooned vs RHP. I do like Mayberry as a 4th/5th OF type. I also think Ruf will hit LHP well enough to stick at the MLB level in some fashion.

Reason I was against signing Hairston earlier this offseason was his insistence on a multi-year deal at significantly larger dollars ( $8-$10M on a 2-yr deal). If he is only able to command a 1-yr deal at $2-3M, he becomes a lot more attractive.

I also like the possibility of having Hairston start at 2B occasionally vs LHP when Utley needs to sit which should be done on a fairly regular basis this year. I don't think Utley can handle the wear & tear of trying to play 145-150 G. He has also been pretty awful vs LHP the past 2 years.


Scott Hairston hasn't played 2B for more than an batter here or there (most likely 5-infielder situations) since 2004. I think you're confusing him with his brother Jerry.

Colonel Tom - I was. Strike what I said about Hairston.

TTI's right then because I don't think he is worth the upgrade over Mayberry/Ruf to hit LHP.

TTI: That wasn't a "gotcha." It was an expression of incredulity. And I'm struggling to see what "point" I missed. You said "The offense was fine last year." That was the very point I responded to.

As Jack & Fatalotti have pointed out on several occasions, the reason we tanked last year is because the other team out-scored us too many times. One of the reasons for that was because we had an average offense. If we had a better offense, the bullpen wouldn't have been in position to blow as many games as it did. In other words, there were multiple reasons why we tanked last year & those reasons were all interrelated. To pick out one specific aspect of the team, and declare that you have isolated that area as the cause of our losing ways, is just dumb.

TTI~ What negotiating leverage does he have? If he has any at all he's ceratinly not using it to bring anyone in. Does ot really do any good to stockpile arms with Monor League deals? If everyone is healthy, I don't pitching will be that big of a problem with the 'pen being stronger this year.

And what you (and others) fail to realize is that the lack of offense last year before Utley and Howard came back put undo pressure on the pitching staff and they folded for the most part. Lee got hurt in a game where he pitched 10 innings of SO ball. So don't tell me the offense was fine. It wasn't.

This year, with what is there, where is the proven hitter behinnd Howard? I'll tell you, there isn't one. Potentially? Yes. But proven? No. That's where you, others and I disagree.

Sweet! It is 2008, correct?

Oh, nevermind then.

MG - You might have accidentally stumbled onto an idea, though. The Dodgers have an overload of utility players, at least four of whom don't have minor-league options (Jerry Hairston, Nick Punto, Juan Uribe, and Skip Schumaker). One of those first three guys, who can all play SS, should shake loose by the end of spring training. Hairston (or perhaps Punto) could be useful on the Phils' bench, letting Galvis play every day in AAA.

"He was wrong in not upgrading the offense last offeason..."

DPat, you're reinventing history again.

He DID try to upgrade the offense - and bench - last season. It just didn't work.

You were the one on this board screaming for Cuddyer, who wound up witha 99 OPS+ last season and some time on the DL so he only played in 101 games.. Even if the pitching had held out THAT would not have been a difference maker.

As it turns out, the pitching was so bad last season any offensive upgrade wouldn't have worked out anyway. Yes, that's hindsight, but it still all comes full circle - back to the pitching. Even with Utley and Howard in the lineup for the full year I'm not sure this team would have made the playoffs because the crap to Pap was so bad.

Last year the hitting ranked 8th in the NL, the pitching ranked 7th. Both were "fine" while neither was good.

"Being 8th in a 16-team league is fine? Are we aspiring to be average?"

bap, I don't think any team ought to have that aspiration, but scoring alone doesn't make the difference - and YOU know it!

The Reds scored less runs than the Phillies last season and won 97 games.

Go figure.

"And what you (and others) fail to realize is that the lack of offense last year before Utley and Howard came back put undo pressure on the pitching staff and they folded for the most part. Lee got hurt in a game where he pitched 10 innings of SO ball. So don't tell me the offense was fine. It wasn't."


I fail to see the correlation between Lee straining his oblique, which he has had problems with in the past and the fact that the Phillies' offense was mediocre last year. Are you saying that the offensive woes caused Lee's oblique strain?

"and YOU know it!"

This is funny. I can just imagine awh raising his fist to the sky, in triumphant bravado, while stomping his foot on the ground.

"Does ot really do any good to stockpile arms with Monor League deals?"


Wow.

DPat, go over to b-r.com and take a look at how many pitchers the Phillies have used in seasons past.

AAMOF, go take a look at how many pitchers the average team uses in a single season.


That might be the most vacuously ignorant, rhetorical question I've ever seen posted here.

Just WOW!

"scoring alone doesn't make the difference - and YOU know it!"

Indeed. Just as you & TTI both know that scoring more runs helps mitigate the damage done by a poor bullpen & an underperforming starting rotation. The difference between our lines of reasoning, however, is that I have never claimed that "The bullpen/pitching was fine last year. The offense was the reason for our problems." My view is that all of the above were problems.

BAP: The problem is you have a problem associating that "fine" is not necessarily an endearing adjective to describe the offense. Perhaps it is the lawyer in you.

Again- our pitching staff gave up 151 more runs last year than the previous season. We scored 27 less. Yes there were multiple factors that contributed to us being basically a .500 team but not all those reasons are equal.

TTI: I do indeed interpret the word "fine" to be an expression of praise or, at the very least, satisfaction. And I assure you that nothing I learned in law school informs my interpretation. The dictionary does, however, inform my interpretation.

You've already got Frandsen to sub in for Utley occasionally. Second base is his natural position anyway. Hairston at second? Don't really see it on this team. Frandsen is a much cheaper alternative. Between Frandsen at second and Mayberry in the outfield, this team does not need Hairston.

The Cook and Lopez signings are meaningless. Neither should see any time in the majors this season. But what about Webb? Is he throwing for teams yet? Because if healthy, he's a guy worth having.

And finally, people keep saying that Ruf is going to participate in a platoon. I think Charlie is going to have to see him fail against rightys before playing him in a platoon. As it should be.

BAP: Don't ignore my other point.

our pitching staff gave up 151 more runs last year than the previous season. We scored 27 less. Yes there were multiple factors that contributed to us being basically a .500 team but not all those reasons are equal.

BAP: Also, I like to use other adjective: good, great, superb, superior, the best, etc.

Can you tell me which ones you prefer so I don't have to read you getting incredulous at what really had nothing to do with my point?

"And what you (and others) fail to realize is that the lack of offense last year before Utley and Howard came back put undo pressure on the pitching staff and they folded for the most part."


DPat, this is simply not true.

Howard's first game back was July 6th.

Through July 5th they scored 362 runs in 84 games - 4.31 RPG.

"...the reason we tanked last year is because the other team out-scored us too many times."


bap, I had to post that quote from you above, because I have to do this...

I just have to...

HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHA

rolo: Yeah I thought that was so incredibly silly a point I hoped it was an imposter making it.

We lost because the other team outscored us more often.


No sh!t sherlock!

I think I need to take a vacation from this blog until Opening Day.

"Iceman - Pound sand. Cruz was a solid signing. Cook is filler and not very good filler at that."

You need to stop taking what I say so seriously MG. It's the Internet! And I will not go pound Internet sand!

It is true though that you have these very specific demands of what Amaro should or shouldn't do and move the goalposts frequently. You said almost verbatim that any and all pitching additions to the MiL roster are welcomed. There have been three signings since you said that and you've ripped two of them.

What standards are we supposed to have for MiL signings? They are MiL signings for a reason. They're lottery tickets. If one of them hits, it's a raging success. The more of them the better.

Truth: And I completely agree with your other point. But the reason some of us are focused on the offense is because that's the area of weakness (or "averageness," if you will) where RAJ didn't exactly do a lot to improve. An impact bat would have helped significantly.

That said, all the impact bats are gone and I do not share DPat and MG's view that adding another bench bat like Hairston would be of any value whatsoever. Hairston wouldn't make us better. He'd make us worse because he would take the spot of someone who is better (Ruf, Mayberry) or, at the very least, more useful (Nix).

"The Cook and Lopez signings are meaningless. Neither should see any time in the majors this season."


Smitty, I disagree with this. I'll give you adds that at least one of them will see MLB time this season.

Rolo~ You can come at me with stats all you want. Wiggy & Nix are not the types of players you want to replace your #3 and #4 hitters with.

DPat, please explain your erroneous statement in this context:

You posted:

"And what you (and others) fail to realize is that the lack of offense last year before Utley and Howard came back put undo pressure on the pitching staff and they folded for the most part."

The offense before Howard came back: 4.31 RPG.

the offense after Howard came back: 4.13 RPG.

Seems to me that you are just flat out wrong, and are not man enough to admit it and declare BL Bankruptcy.

Chip Kelly. Ha!

And Vincente Padilla get $3.25MM in Japan....

To add another point to the Soriano contract from yesterday, with a quick musing and some back-of-the-envelope calculations:

Assuming a 7.5% rate of return, and ignoring the 2015 portion of the vesting option, since I'm quite certain he won't meet the criteria to vest (he's never finished 60 games in his career once, let alone in back to back seasons, so there's virtually a nil probability he does it in these next two years, especially at 33/34 years old):

The present value of his contract is $21.4 M.

Had he taken the $13.5 M QO from the Yankees, he would have had to earn ~$8.55 M next year to match the PV of his current deal with the Nationals, if we keep the same assumptions (RoR and assuming he wouldn't have vested into the 2015 payday from the Nats).

To me, it doesn't feel like such a strong win. I mean, if he has another strong season (which I'm assuming he assumes he will), he could have been in line for another qualifying offer, or maybe they alter the CBA, and he could have gotten a 2 year deal next year at $10 M per, either of which would have been worth more in PV dollars than his current deal.

I don't know, just another way to look at it from his perspective. Not so sure he still didn't make a mistake by turning down the QO.

I'm not sure an extra bat would mean more than Halladay, Howard and Utley having bounce-back years.

I get the whining about the offense, and I'd have rather had more offense, too. But the key is to target upgrades that will have the most direct impact on the team. Would BJ Upton have mitigated another washout year from one or two of the aforementioned trio? I highly doubt it. And I don't want to hear people talk about how Hamilton is an option they wanted. No one wanted him in October, and no one would have wanted to pay him what he eventually got from Anaheim.

I think the FO knows that no matter what they did through FA as far as adding a bat, it wouldn't matter if Halladay craps out again. And one bat is not enough to completely resurrect an average offense with players on the brink of decline. So they targeted a few areas that were right there in front of them to improve- 8th inning (huge problem), 3B (huge problem- not a really better option than Young out there), and OF defense (pretty big problem). They are taking some risks that some unproven commodities will pan out (Brown, Ruf) or will bounce back (Young).

It's a reasonable approach, because there isn't a single bat on the market that changes the simple fact that if the trio of Halladay/Utley/Howard doesn't give them signficantly more production than they did last year, one big bat wouldn't save them. It might have hedged a little bit, but it wouldn't have saved them.

I understand disagreeing with the approach, but I don't understand BAP's righteous indignation regarding the approach. Then again, he's been fueled by panicking about the offense since 2009.

BAP and TTI are both right, I think.

BAP points out that incremental improvements on the worse part of the team (the offense) are easier to find.

What TTI is getting at (I think, correct me if I'm wrong) is that the reason the team flopped last year, compared to expectation, was because of the pitching. Most people expected a middle-of-the-pack offense and a pitching staff that was head-and-shoulders above the rest of the NL. We got exactly the offense we thought we were getting, but a terribly disappointing/underachieving pitching staff. In that sense, the pitching was the problem.

Oh, FYI, guys, I confirmed via Twitter last night that TBag is back doing play-by-play next season (not that I was really expecting otherwise...). Unless I missed some sort of announcement on it, I was holding out hope, but now am crestfallen. Oh well...

Willard Preacher - Worst news this offseason.

Didn't see any news on TMac's twitter feed or a PR release that they signed him to a new deal/extension.

https://twitter.com/TMacPhils

MG, that is the worst news this offseason.

Another year of TBag....ugh.

This discussion continues to be mind-bogglingly dumb. You win games by outscoring the other team. You can do that by winning 1-0, or by 9-8, or, the best option, by 9-0.

All facets of the team last year could have used improvement. No one area was to blame. As someone else pointed out, run prevention was 7th, run scoring was 8th. Not surprisingly, we finished with the 8th best record in the league. Shocking!

Just make the team better, anywhere. That's all that matters. The Reds scored less runs than the Phils and won more games--oh my! Milwaukee allowed 50 more runs than we did and won more games. Who cares? The point is there's multiple ways to skin the cat, but you gotta skin the damn cat.

And, as others have pointed out, faulting the pitching staff for not being as good as they were in 2011 is absurd. The 2011 run prevention was one of the best in baseball history. By definition, historic seasons don't happen every year. It was always going to be worse.

If you're expecting the output of the 2011 pitching staff to be the ticket the Phils ride back to playoff glory, you're out of your mind.

MG, really bummed me out. I hit the bottle shortly thereafter. Our exchange:

Tom McCarthy ‏@TMacPhils

Allentown (NJ) Hot Stove Dinner, Jan 29, Me, Ruben Amaro, Ron Darling, Jeff Manto, Greg Amsinger. $50. Auc. Items. 609-259-7292 xt. 1484.
----------------------------------
Some Dude Some Dude ‏@MrGreenGenius

@TMacPhils does this mean you’ll be back as PBP guy in 2013???
-----------------------------------
Tom McCarthy Tom McCarthy ‏@TMacPhils

@MrGreenGenius Ya man. Can't wait.

"I understand disagreeing with the approach, but I don't understand BAP's righteous indignation regarding the approach."

My "righteous indignation" is not aimed at the Phillies' approach. It is aimed at the posters who write condescending posts toward anyone who disagrees with their view: (1) that the offense is hunky-dory; and (2) that there was but a single cause for the Phillies' 2012 struggles.

How do people feel about Rollins playing in another WBC and playing most if not every inning at short? Do we worry about not so young James putting extra miles on before the season?
Personally, I'm not worried. I just thought I'd throw a fresh log into the fretting fire.

Agree that posters are getting antsy.
There number of impact players still available is dwindling, many I dislike for the Phillies anyway.

Phillies need better pitching and hitting, like every team. They should be looking to make any marginal improvements they can. Very few will work out. One of Lopez/Cook might be useful in AAA, other is likely cut. I loved the Pinerio signing last year and he was cut early. Cruz might be 'good' for short stretch if needed.

I do want another middle INF to push Galvis to AAA, the Dodgers guys make sense. I've always liked Hairston (jerry). He regularly has good seasons, plays all over the field, and has decent speed.

I'd rather the Phillies wait until midseason to see what they have in Ruf & Brown. Save their budget for options during the season. A.Soriano is probably only a phone call away.

Since the major league minimum is about $0.5M I have no problem with Phillies grabbing a RP or INF for $1M since they become easily cut.

Jack- if you think the discussion is stupid, don't join it. It's very clear you think you are above most of the discourse here.

BAP- seriously? You asked a smart-ass rhetorical question to TTI and are offended when he uses the same tone with you?

It seems to me that TTI had a viewpoint that you disagreed with and you condescended to him. But please, continue to act like the victim.

Iceman: I used the phrase "righteous indignation" only because those were your words. Rest assured, I'm neither indignant nor offended about anything TTI said in this debate or any other.

I am, however, a bit exasperated by the argument: "Our offense was average last year, as expected. Our pitching and bullpen were worse than expected. Ergo, anyone who says we need to improve the offense is stupid." This line of argument has been advanced on Beerleaguer almost since the day the off-season began.

Something may be wrong with Halladay and/or Hamels. You don't sign 2 bottom feeder starters in Lopez and Cook unless you're very worried about the health of your rotation.

All I see from this stockpiling of LV arms is "The Coming of the Big Trade" involving some young SP arms.

Godfather - they always sign veteran arms to back up the staff and eat innings in AAA. Last year we had Dave Bush, Scott Elarton, etc. I wouldn't read anything into it.

On the larger point in many of the posts above:

We eed to improve any way we can - the issue is that we have more obvious places to upgrade the offense and defense than we do on the pitching staff.

We have one of our weakest/most questionable starting outfields in recent memory. We're likely to be below-average defensively, with Revere's heroic efforts pulling them out of historically bad territory. We're also likely be below-average offensively, and we're banking on Ruf and Brown to break out this year or we're in really bad shape with the bats as well. That's a lot of red ink for the rest of the squad to make up in other areas.

And Vincente Padilla get $3.25MM in Japan....

I would love to hear the Japanese announcers talking about the glory days of the "Padilla Flotilla"

need, not eed. Eek.

I know the consensus on BL is that a healthy HUH (Halladay, Howard, Utley) is the difference between winning and not so winning. It's been repeated so often that I don't think people even examine it anymore.

It is wrong. It really doesn't matter what happen to Howard and Utley this season. Any contribution is good. But not necessary. The key is Halladay.

If Halladay does not resemble the Halladay of old, it won't matter what Howard and Utley do. We can be pretty sure that Utley will be a positive if able to take the field. We can be pretty sure that Howard will hit for power and do little else if healthy. But that will not make up for a Halladay like last season or a Halladay replaced by Cloyd, Cook or Lopez. Maybe the team gets an unexpected performance out of Pettibone. But it's not likely this season.

Halladay is the key. He was last season and he will be again this season.

" It is aimed at the posters who write condescending posts toward anyone who disagrees with their view: (1) that the offense is hunky-dory; and (2) that there was but a single cause for the Phillies' 2012 struggles."


Strawman Alert.


bap, please name one poster, besides DPat, who has posted anything remotely close to this.

One.

And then this?:

""Our offense was average last year, as expected. Our pitching and bullpen were worse than expected. Ergo, anyone who says we need to improve the offense is stupid." "


Wow. Who posted THAT?

"It's the pitching, stupid!"

Rolo~ I'm not talking about aveg runs per games. That can be skewed if runs are scored in bunches. I get it about the pitching. I talking about someone proven to protect the #4 spot.

As far as runs scored, you can outscore a team in a 4-game series and still lose 3 of 4. Your point about averaging 4 runs a game is well-taken. We could win a lot of games if we repeat that this year, if the pitching holds. Question is, with our OF, can we average that?

BAP~ I never said Hairston would make us better (at least I don't think so). He may not even be a better option than Brown or Mayberry, but at this point I don't know that for the right money, he would be a bad addition. He's better than nothing.


I never said Hairston would make us better (at least I don't think so). He may not even be a better option than Brown or Mayberry, but at this point I don't know that for the right money, he would be a bad addition. He's better than nothing.

Posted by: DPatrone | Wednesday, January 16, 2013 at 02:44 PM

Wait, what? You want to make a move for the sake of making a move?

"We eed to improve any way we can - the issue is that we have more obvious places to upgrade the offense and defense than we do on the pitching staff."


Colonel, I generally agree with that statement, but would add this:

As far as offensive upgrades are concerned, let's look at things as they stand - today - position by position:

C: IMHO no way this position can be upgraded even if Ruiz regresses

1B: Is there an upgrade available from Howard? IMHO, no.

2B: See answer to 1B

3B: Young is the best they can do unless they can trade for a someone

SS: Barring trade, no upgrade available

LF: What can Ruf do? Until that question is answered it's impossible to know. Suppose he does do waht ZIPS projects: .255/.321/.420, 17 HR, 73 RBI? Is there an upgrade avialble from those numbers? Unless he repeated 2012 Hairston probably would not be.

CF: Bourn would be an upgrade from Revere. Think they'll spend the money?

RF: Same problem as LF. What will Brown do?
ZIPS: .265/.332/.461, 18 HR, 60 RBI. Bill James: .274/.347/.445, 17 HR, 80 RBI. So, is there and upgrade available?

(I have not considered Nixberry as I believe they belong on the bench.)

And that's the uncertainty that the team faces, particularly with regard to the corner OF, which are really the only places where they could upgrade through trades.

BAP: Yeah, I mean, if all you were trying to do is compare the 2012 team to 2011, then, sure, you can say the difference is the pitching.

If you're concerned with where the 2013 team can improve and be better, which is what I thought this was about, then the answer is: wherever possible.

Fatti, what's your point?

Saying the pitching needed to improve the MOST in order for them to contend is NOT saying other areas shouldn't be upgraded. (If you had any memory at all you would remember that I was an advocate of signing Swisher.) But go ahead and do a "DPAT". Reinvent history if you must.

I was just quoting you, awh, nothing more. I didn't make any point. You inferred a point.

Although, how could BAP have possibly gotten the impression that you thought the offense was fine as is, and the pitching the was the primary, and therefore, only important part of the team to upgrade, when you post things like this:

"OK, for all of you who have, for the entire offseason, been whining about signing another bat:

It's the pitching, stupid!"

Posted by: awh, Founder, JRoll in the 6-Hole Club | Thursday, January 03, 2013 at 03:29 PM

Yo, new thread.

rolo - At this point, there's not much to be had on the FA market. There was earlier in the off-season, of course, and Bourn would still represent a upgrade in LF (though perhaps not worth the cost).

Going with Ruf, Revere, and Brown (with a dash of JMJ/Nix) might be the best plan to see what we have long-term, but if the competitive window is now, that's far from an optimal win-now lineup. RAJ is trying both to win now and build for the future, and my fear is that often that strategy ends up accomplishing neither.

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