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Saturday, January 12, 2013

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Rolo!! Nice filler signing.

awh (last thread): when I get more time (and I have a lot recently- 3 weeks into recovering from lower back surgery), I'd be interested to go through who Kendrick matched up against in his starts. Off the top of my head, it seemed more often than not that he was on the bad end of some rough matchups for the offense.

As for Lannan, he epitomizes mediocrity- but his mediocrity is insanely reliable. He more than likely isn't going to blow up and give you a really bad season, or get hurt and force you to find a replacement. He'll pitch to career norms, and if he does, the team will probably hover around .500 in his starts. Remember that Lannan was a #1 or #2 for Washington and faced some great starting pitching in his starts, so that WP on those Nats teams is pretty decent.

Like I said- if the team wins 60% of games started by the Big 3 (which, for what they are being paid, should be around what they're able to produce), they only need the other two to keep team in games and win half of their starts. I think that is a reasonable goal.

Iceman, good post. Yeah, KK probably had his share of bad matchups.

Lannan?

Here's the Nats' record in his starts and his run support, and th enumber of his starts the Nats scored 3 runs or less:


Year, Record, Run Sprt, Starts 3 runs or less

2007: _3-3 / 4.42 / 2
2008: 9-22 / 3.71 / 19
2009: 13-20 / 3.63 / 19
2010: 14-11 / 4.55 / 8
2011: 17-16 / 2.59 / 20
2012: _4-2 / 4.85 / 2

Correction above: in 2011m the Nats' scored 3.59 RPG in Lannan's starts.

Fata~ I find everything about this team interesting. I just want RAJ to put the best team on the field that he can. But I don't go to a lot of other sites because the news is always right here and this is the best.

I did receive a call this morning. I hearing he is trying to upgrade the RF position. If he's not able to do that. He can get Soraino or Wells whenever he wants.
If he's really trying to upgrade, I'm ok with it. If he does, look for Brown to platoon in left. Look for Nix to go.
Amaro conducted an interview yesterday and this is what I was told. Didn't hear it myself. I believe that if something isn't done, we're not making the playoffs, and I wouldn't be in the mood to hear any excuses.

Ice~ Bradley just got charged with abuse for attacking his wife. He's 34. I don't know if he can still play. If he gets his act together, and can play a Minor League deal MIGHT be ok.

Let me ask you: Why Rodrigo Lopez? I know it's just org filler, but @ 37 seems to be a waste of money.

Scott Elarton's replacement. That's about all there is to see here.

Bap, I might get a start or two. Maybe a longman role.

Hey, I'm in the best shape of my life.

Ice~ Hope your recovery goes well. I've surgery many times for my CP. It's not fun. Good luck!

I'm still surprised we haven't signed an outfielder..

Start RoLo at CBP instead of Lannan.

I am surprised cholly hasn't made a push for manny yet. Rather have him then wells or any other slop that's out there.

So, the Phils signed a 37 year old pitcher they released over 3 years ago? Wow, how great is that?

And here you thought the late 90s were awesome when it came to signings like this.

Can someone with an excellent knowledge of our projected Iron Pigs rotation (Cloyd, Pettibone,etc.) please try and explain thus signing? I get the whole org filler thing, but unless this is followed by a move to trade Kendrick as part of a trade to upgrade a corner OF spot, I really, really don't understand this move. Seems like there are 10+ guys with better upside you could sign to a similar deal than him. Right now, it's bizzarre.

I agree that upgrading the corner OF would be great. I would hate to give up on Brown though. I think he is due to be at least an average RF. I think his stock is down and trading him would be selling low.

I'd rather Phillies give Brown the full time shot, either in LF or RF. I figure he'd be better in RF since he has a cannon arm than other possible choices. I do not see much sense in Brown as a 4th OF.

I'm fine with 'upgrading' from Ruf, since I'd prefer they start Ruf in AAA. If Ruf mashes the ball again the Phillies will have some options. If Phillies could trade Ruf as a key piece in an OF upgrade that would be great. It would not surprise me if Ruf did become a starter but I'd prefer to keep Brown over Ruf.

I wan ruf and brown to both play. That bone should be 100 now in his hand. Let em play and if you need to make a move then you do it. Have more cash so no prospects will need to be given.

***Seems like there are 10+ guys with better upside you could sign to a similar deal than him. Right now, it's bizzarre.***

Familiarity and his willingness to sign a deal probably.

@NEPP Willingness on January 12 I suppose. 30 days to pitchers and catchers, a lot can change. I hope.

"Can someone with an excellent knowledge of our projected Iron Pigs rotation (Cloyd, Pettibone,etc.) please try and explain thus signing?"

Nothing to do with AAA rotation, its just a milb deal. Every MLB team does this, 1st place or last, rich or poor.

Maybe the 50% hispananic baseball loving population of Allentown has something to do with the signing. Maybe Amaro has some Mexican baseball roots. Either way Rolo at LV is Elarton + last January's signing of Joel Piñeiro in a neat package.

lorecore: "I think Morgan blew through the pitching dominant Florida state league as a matured college player. His arsenal is not overpowering and sounds like he gets all of his success on locating his average secondary stuff better than what young hitters are accustomed to. I predict that will catch up to him."

Excellent scouting report on the overrated Adam Morgan.

If Rodrigo Lopez is on the Phillies 25-man roster on Opening Day, season=over.

Rodrigo Lopez won't just be on the roster, he'll be starting on Opening Day.

***Excellent scouting report on the overrated Adam Morgan.***

Yes, but it was seasons and jumps from guys like Adam Morgan that have our system not in the bottom 5 right now.

Its almost as if our system really sucks.

Where will Jose Pujols play this season? Who has seen this kid play?

Jose Pujols will likely play in the GCL. With a high signing bonus I figure Phillies bring him stateside.

Supposedly Morgan's 'stuff' is now above average. He gained 3+mph on his fastball. He has a plus slider, and average change and curveball with above average command. Assuming the fastball velocity increase is for real, the rest puts him as a solid #3 starter type.

Amaro's underwhelming minor league deals continue this offseason. Still hasn't signed a guy who I think could even be an adequate fill-in for a limited stretch let alone a positive surprise for the club.

Give him a 'C' so far this offseason on the moves he made and 'F' on his minor league signings.

Lopez was a poor pitcher back in '09 and he isn't even a solid AAA player anymore.

The Phils could use a solid swingman right now and while it isn't 'season=over' if Lopez makes the Opening Day roster it does signal that organizational depth in the bullpen is a huge issue already.

Really hope Horst comes into camp & can largely pick up where he left over last year because besides Savery (and this bum) they don't have another guy in the pen capable of going to 2 IP if necessary.

Meyer - Piniero definitely had more upside last year than Lopez does this year.

Lopez really belongs pitching in the Mexican League this season and not in the US at AAA.

Watch the Nats sign Vasquez to a similar deal with the only difference is that Vasquez is probably still capable of making a MLB rotation and can pitching capably as a back-end rotation starter.

If Rodrigo is still a Scott Boras client, he could be the guacamole dip appetizer before the sit down steak dinner.

MG great point on Vasquez. Take a shot on Lowe for the pen/swingman. Could he really cost that much?

The way scouts are talking up Vasquez, he's in line for a MLB deal. He's got enough suitors already it seems.

Amaro learned how to tweak a roster by sitting at the foot of The Master.

I'm hoping Amaro and Boras are tweaking each other's nose again. "Happy now, Scott (tweak-tweak-tweak), I signed your guy Rod-ri-go (tweak-tweak-tweak)... Thanks Ruben (tweak-tweak-tweak), want to stay for din-ner (tweak-tweak-tweak)."

But then who's the entree? Bourn? Jurrjens?

Whoever said Meyer is an underrated poster was overrating him.

lorecore- Yeah if he is throwing that well and I would imagine it still is a relatively low base (say $3M with a lot of incentive upside).

Even in this crazy market, I would be stunned if some team gives him a $6 or $7M base for a guy who has pitched in MLB since '11 (even though he pitched well that year) and his age.

"If Rodrigo is still a Scott Boras client, he could be the guacamole dip appetizer before the sit down steak dinner."

Nah. He would be the disgusting 'bar nuts' that dive bars put out that are stale & well past their expiration date.

MG- what's with the whining? Pierre was signed on January 27th last year. The rest of the signings (save Podsednik) that were hailed by BL completely fizzled out and contributed nothing to the MLB roster. And the one trade he made for depth (Horst) was ripped by you and others here and he turned out to be a valuable pick-up.

Basically, you're overreacting again.

Might as well sign off until March. 2013 hinges on the return to health and reasonable productivity of Howard, Halladay, Utley.

Even if Dom and Ruf are wash outs, there is a known floor to the production of Mayberry and Nix, with decent defense. The Phils, in season, could acquire a Diaz or a Soriano, and we're right back to the Howard/Halladay/Utley watch.

(By the way, I'm bullish on Utley, bearish on Halladay, don't have a feel for Howard.
Bearish on both Dom and Ruf, but would still like to see them be given a shot.)

"If Rodrigo Lopez is on the Phillies 25-man roster on Opening Day, season=over."


O' ye of little faith.

Rolo had a good winter season with the Tomateros on Mexico. as did a teamate Marlon Byrd

Iceman - What minor league signings last year were 'hailed by Beerleaguer?'

I liked a few of the minor league moves Amaro made last year including Willis, Piniero, and Pierre. The only one I really didn't like was Bush who I thought was taking a rotation spot at Lehigh & was finished as MLB-caliber pitcher. Even Elarton was more of a 'roll of the dice' based upon how he look from a stuff perspective.

You will in most cases find me hard pressed to hate a minor league signing/spring camp invite because I generally like having more organizational depth at a position.

As for the Horst trade, yeah I disliked it because Amaro said all offseason last year that he needed to upgrade the bench spots in the infield and then proceeded to do the exact opposite including trading Valdez.

Turned out Amaro was 100% right on trading Valdez who was a complete bust and potentially got back a useful piece in Horst. It might be one of Amaro's better minor moves as GM here (e.g., Mayberry for Golson trade immediately comes to mind too) where he took a useless asset and turned in into something that helped the MLB club.

Amaro was also 100% dead wrong on how he approached the infield depth situation too. By late April/early May, the Phils were basically looking for guys off the street or the waiver wire to pick up to fill a MLB roster spot. Why they signed Fontenot when the Giants released him. That was a clear failure of execution on Amaro's part especially given the 2011 season and the past injury histories of Utley and Polanco.

Iceman - The point is simply this: Amaro signed more minor league FAs last year and more veteran types who might have helped this club out. This year they have signed less veteran FA and I don't think there is a single one who can even fill in adequately.

It's not the end of the world but it would have been nice for Amaro to do a better job on that front. Something that he generally done well with as a GM here.

Not done well. Typos.

I'd love it if we took a run at Vasquez. I'd like him as a 5th starter a hell of a lot more than Lannan (who would make a great swing guy/6th starter).

I dont get Rube's stand pat philosophy at this point.

Vasquez was a very solid starter in 2011.

However, on Vasquez, I do somewhat question those velocity reports that have him touching 95 mph. He hasn't touched 95 mph at the MLB level since 2008.

Though maybe a full year off helped his arm out.

I seem to remember Valdez saying he hated pitching at CBP. Said he would never play for the Phillies, or something like that.

I'd like Rube signing him more than Rolo or Lannan at this point, if he's really healthy, but that ship has sailed.

MG, I think that we're all in favor of signong as many guys to minor league deals as possible that might be able to help out if needed.

But, again, you are posting as though Amaro is operating in a vaccum and can just sign guys at will.

You have no idea what kind of deal those guys want.

for isnstance, here's a list of second basemen still available:

Second basemen
Yuniesky Betancourt (31)
Ronny Cedeno (30)
Willie Harris (35)
Orlando Hudson (35)
Kelly Johnson (31)
Adam Kennedy (37)
Ryan Raburn (32)
Freddy Sanchez (34)
Ryan Theriot (33)

Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/04/2013-mlb-free-agents.html#0a03cLjrmzCWwtfj.99


So, if you're Theriot (DPat's mancrush from last season) and you're still out there, are you going to take a minor league deal or hold out for a MLB contract?

MG- Sanches, Willis, Pinero to name a few. BAP was all about the Sanches move. The latter two did zip and the former came up for a bit and got bombed. Pierre was signed late to a mixed reaction from BL and produced quite a bit for this team.

I just think it's really, really early to start lamenting signings that could still happen. There are still plenty of guys out there and even as spring progresses people will shake loose that would be worth taking a look at. Happens every year.

I think the problem is that this year, to be quite honest, there are so many people already on the roster competing for spots it would almost be counterproductive to bring in a fringe OF and have him take up ABs in the spring. Pitching, sure, you can never sign enough pitching. As far as position players go, there are already too many cooks in the kitchen.

Iceman - BAP one's poster and the reaction to Sanches was 'blah.' Go back and look at the comments.

As for an OF, I would agree because most of the FA OFs who would sign on a minor league deal would just take up spring training ABs I would rather see go to other players.

I am talking more about the pitching side and other positional players.

everyone seemed to love the Dtrain signing last year.

lore, everyone loved it because there was no risk.

I, and most others, have no problem signing anybody so long as it's a no/low risk contract.

Take a look at the list I posted above. You might be able to get guys like Harris and O-Dog in MiL deals, but some of the younger guys are probably looking for MLB contracts.

I'm not taking the postition that they'll get them, though, but they may hold on to that hope as long as they can and only sign a deal right before ST starts.

With a month to go before Spring Training, I'm guessing what we see is what we get for the Phils roster going in.
I would look for them to be yearlong bargain hunters as players free up in ST and teams feel the heed to unload during the season.
A little this and little that, but no major long term, big buck commitments.

not saying the dtrain was a bad move, just speaking to MG's claim that no moves were hailed by BL.

Since its not my money, I would sign almost any player in the league to a milb deal that woudl accept it. The almost being Michael Martinez.

I'm not saying that the roster is perfect. In fact, what team's roster is "perfect"? Every team has holes. If the Phils go into the season as-is, I'm not going to be too upset. It's no secret what the key to success is for this team:

If their aging stars stay healthy and they get adequate production from the young guys, they'll contend. If they don't, they won't.

I think it really is that simple.

Players basically have ~2 weeks to catch on with a MLB league.

At this point, the odds are really against a guy like Theriot isn't get a guaranteed deal.

If he gets a deal similar to Lopez got which gives him a guaranteed MLB salary ($1M or $1.2M) if he makes the Opening Day roster, he should definitely take it especially if it is a club that has some question marks at 2B organizationally.

But, it's good to have Rolo back. Why? I have no idea. Seeing this signing made me smile for some unknown reason. Probably because of all the fun we had on BL during his first go-round.

"The almost being Michael Martinez."


Word!

RBill, I was pitching in AAA in 2009, pitching to a ERA over 4, when I got called up to be a fill in starter at the beginning of July. I started 5 games in July surrounding the All-Star break, and went 3 -1 (the team's record was 4 - 1 in my starts) pitching to a 3.62 ERA.

They had signed Pedro Martinez in the middle of July, and they traded for Cliff Lee at the deadline.

That basically pushed me to the bullpen, a role in which I do not do well (I overthrow and walk too many guys). After 2 bad appearances they released me, and also because Pedro got called up making me redundant.

The Phillies won their division by 6 games in 2009, and my starts and WP were responsible for half that comfortable margin.

rolo - I heard Amaro signed you. I hope you enjoy taking the bus a lot as an Iron Pig this year before you get released.

One guy that may be worth RAJ looking into is former Orioles LHP Zach Phillips.

I don't know much about him except he had very short auditions at the MLB level and reportedly has a decent arm. Also, he's only 26, so maybe there are a few more decent years in his arm.

Anyone know wnything about him? Attitude problems?

Nevermind, apparently the Fish signed Phillips about a month ago.

And Michael Bourn is still unsigned.

If there's a scenario where Bourn's price drops to 10 mill for ONE year to try FA next yr, do you sign him for CF while Revere goes to LF and Ruf/Brown in RF? I don't really care if Nix or Mayberry are on this team next yr. Flip a coin-- righty or lefty-- then take that one. Since you need Utley and Howard to supply power to contend at all, why not combine that hope with the reality of team speed? The only downside I see is Ruf not panning out with his bat and, less so, his arm.

oogie, leieve it or not, RFD provides premium power off of the bench against LHP (1 HR/17.2 PA vs. league avg 1/35.6)). He can play ALL THREE OF positions adequately, and he can play 1B.

As limited as he is against RHP, there are not many players at the MLB level that fit that profile.

If the Phillies released him he'd have a choice as to where his next job is, and would have one by the end of the next day.

I see your point on Mayberry's power, but he runs terrible routes to balls. I think he's below average there. On a different subject, has anyone here opined that there's a good possibility that owners are colluding, regardless of draft compensation or "slot money"? Protecting 1st round picks is fine, but isn't the real motive behind the "lack of interest" in Lohse, Bourn, et al a great excuse to lower contract prices-- especially when teams are close to the luxury tax?

"If the Phillies released [Mayberry] he'd have a choice as to where his next job is, and would have one by the end of the next day."

Tell that to Scot Hairston.

lorecore - Mayberry will be 29, is a much better defensive player, can play CF, and will make less than $1M this year.

Mayberry would be picked up in a heartbeat of the waiver wire if he was DFA.

I would like nothing better than to find out if thats true or not, lets DFA him.

lorecore - Who takes his spot on the roster then?

I liked Rolo when we had him before. I wish him well. His age, though does not make the Phillies a younger team. We need to get younger to better compete. The George Allen method of team building does not work in baseball. 162 games a season do not suit old geezers. We need young bucks to go the distance. Sorry, Rolo.

Mayberry is a more valuable commodity that Hairstson. He wouldn't be out of a job for long if he was DFA'ed.

I don't want him to be a starter mainly because his route running was infuriating to me last season but as a bench player he would have a spot on basically any roster.

I dislike the rolo signing.

Mainly because when we signed him last time it led to people changing their names in silly arguments about how effective a pitcher he was. I think there were some people legitimately saying we didn't need to sign Pedro because rolo was pitching well.

MG, I now you're been as critical of RFD in the past as anyone on the board, but your post above does indicate that you haven't lost your sanity.

He has his limitations, but there are very few teams in MLB that wouldn't welcome someone with his skillset onto their bench.

"I know you've been as critical..."

"...but as a bench player he would have a spot on basically any roster."


And TTI provides the board with more sanity.

Mayberry has Pence syndrome in that he's reasonably productive but has fallen short of unreasonable expectations. DFAing him (while keeping Minimart?!) would be the height of idiocy. Probably one of the better 4th/5th OFs out there.

TTI, rolo was signed not only as minor league filler, but also as someone who could take the ball for a turn or two in an emergency callup, and not have them start the service clock on younger pitchers.

What I worry about is that RFD will get a lot of starts in OF again this yr. I don't have any faith in Domonic. I've always thought he was/is a AAAA talent. If Ruf pans out, great. I think Bourn should be an option when the free agent dust settles. Then you could have RFD and/ or Brown as the other OF..

"What I worry about is that RFD will get a lot of starts in OF again this yr."


oogie, define "a lot". If he started every game against a LHSP I would have no problem with that - he mashes lefites. IIRC, about 30% of MLB starters are LH, so if he got 30% of the starts {45-50 games) that's OK.

I never want to see him start against a RHP.

Mayberry is not an all-star but he is a perfectly acceptable 4th outfielder/platoon player. Don't understand the Mayberry hate.

Well, rolo, 449 at bats in 149 games last yr. i don't have the exact figures but it looks like he started about about 100 games. I don't want to see Cholly start him against RHP when he's "swingin the bat good" Mayberry is a streak hitter that fools the mgr. into using him while he's in hot AND cold streaks. I'd say 50 games is a much better number, rolo

Mayberry will suck off the bench and then we'll have to hear the argument that he needs more consistent PA to shine.

awh: I know why he was signed. I was being glib mostly in my dislike of the signing.

If Scott Hairston wanted a 1 year, $1 million deal, he'd be under contract right now too. He's unsigned because he wants a bit more than that, not because he sucks.

Teams don't want Bourn on a one-year deal because they value their unprotected picks. The pillow deal -- or whatever Boras has been calling it -- is not as good as it was.

However, if we were to sign Bourn for a year and then offer him a contract, we'd get a pick from somebody for the 2014 draft...so there's that.

All that assumes that Bourn isnt hit by a bus during the 2013 season.

If Bourn were to take a 1 year deal I am sure he would want it in his contract that the team that signs him could NOT offer him a qualifying offer at the end of the season. Otherwise he would be back in the same boat as this year.

reverend - i dont know if thats something that can be added in to a contract, is it? that would just lower his 2013 contract even moreso anyway wouldn't?

Remember when the Phillies offered Raul Ibanez a qualifying offer (when it was just arbritration and not a set amount) and he just declined because he told the Phillies he would on a gentleman's handshake.

Is that situation still a possiblity or does this new method somehow eliminate those type of scenarios?

Sophist, nice to see you back.

Seidman has an article up over at csnphilly detailing how close the Phils and Braves are in talent.

NEPP: I could see a team with a late pick who has already locked up some other comp picks being open to a Bourn pillow deal and a 2014 pick (Yankees?). But, I don't think it would be a good deal for the Phillies, who don't have any other comp picks coming their way this year.

Optimistic look at Roman Quinn:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/roman-quinn-a-better-billy-hamilton/

Calls his speed triple digit potential and believes his adaption to switch hitting is already better than Hamilton's, with a better chance to stick at SS as well.

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