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Tuesday, January 22, 2013

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clout, Revere would probably blow a wheel by the ASB as well.

I am beginning to wish they had just signed Bourn, although I did like the Revere trade. Would you rather have Bourn and Worley or a 1st round pick, Revere, and Delmon Young? Maybe you can throw Lannan into that last group too. Strange off-season.

Sophist: I don't care about the 750K. It's the opportunity cost of having to give Delmon Young, a guy with a 90% chance of being really bad, a half-seasons worth of plate appearances and innings in the field. I don't think you can just wave your hands and say "oh, if he's bad, they'll just cut him." How long do you think that will be? One month? Two months? Three? Do you really think the Phillies have a ton of margin for error in competing for a playoff spot this year?

And really, if he's hitting .280/.315/.395, you think they're going to cut him? I don't. Charlie will say he's hitting .280.

But that line also means he's likely to still be a replacement-level player, given his defense and baserunning. Point is, I think there's a small chance that he is actually a positive contributor. And if you give him the job, you're committing to a lot of your season just to find out if that small chance comes up your way. That's a bad bet, no matter whether it's for 750K. It's the opportunity cost that counts, not the dollars.

WE GOT HIM

"WE GOT HIM."

I'm depressed.

Boggling.

Young for 750 or Ross for 3 year 30?

Actually, I miscalculated. Young's career walk rate is 4%, not 5%.

The double platoon is really happening I think. I didn't believe it would, but I feel like this kind of seals it.

Nix and Brown play vs RHP, Mayberry and Young play vs LHP. Ruf to AAA.

The Young signing is strangely reminiscent of last year's Wigginton signing.

Do they have drug tests for MLB GM's? If not, maybe they need to.

The Young signing is strangely reminiscent of last year's Wigginton signing.

An excellent way to describe my trepidation with this signing.

Bad as this signing is, I'd rather Young for cheap and one year than Soriano or Wells in a trade and for multiple seasons. That said, this is pretty awful--primarily because the "experienced" Young is now the de facto starting LF in Charlie's mind, just as Juan Pierre became our primary LF last offseason as soon as he was signed--to Charlie, that is. It won't matter if Ruf sets all-time records in ST, he'll spend the season in AAA unless Young hits below the Mendoza line--and even then I'd be surprised to see Young cut.

BTW, can we now officially bury the "Phillies-value-character-and-clubhouse-qualities higher than other teams" meme? It was always nonsensical, and this signing proves it.

Maybe Rube found a trade partner who wants Ruf.

I keep hearing/reading (here and elshwere) that the signing stinks, but "would you rather have Young at$750K or Ross at 3/30 [or Soriano or whoever else]?"

How about this: I'd rather have nothing than any of those guys, Young included. Because it's "better" than another signing, doesn't mean it is good.

"The Young signing is strangely reminiscent of last year's Wigginton signing."

Which itself was reminiscent of the previous year's Baez signing.

Signing a crappy veteran isn't a good move when you know they're going to be crappy, just because it's cheap. A low-risk, no-reward deal is still a bad deal, even if it didn't cost you much.

Maybe they're paying this guy by the pound?

Young was caught stealing twice last year with no successful attempts. Our SB% is going down this year!!!

And Amaro just announced that Young will play RF.

Alright, now Amaro has said Young will play RF.

So ignore everything I said about Darin Ruf, and instead replace his name with "Dom Brown." Still applies, though.

I didn't mean that Alright in any good way. More of the first thing that popped into my head.


This is ridiculous.

There will be a lot of good press if Delmon ever throws a bat at Santa Claus.

Young signing

Positives

- Gives the Phils some organizational depth at the corner OF positions where they basically have known right now
- Put up great numbers in '10
- Only 28 this year
- Hits for a relatively high average
- Known commodity who is at least league average offensively

Negatives

- Horrendous fielder who is miscast even in LF
- Malcontent and not a guy who has a good rep with management or his teammates
- Questionable work ethic
- Out-of-shape the last 2 years and was noticeably overweight (even obese) last year
- Coming off surgery on his right ankle to remove bone spurs
- Is actually a power downgrade from Mayberry

I am 'weight and see' on this signing especially depending upon what shape Young is when he comes into camp.

I said it earlier in this thread but besides a bit more of a higher AVG, Young doesn't bring anything to the table really that Ruf/Mayberry vs LHP.

My biggest hope is that Young doesn't become the default starter in LF which is what I bet has a strong chance of happening especially if Young has a decent spring.

Relevant

The worst batter's K to BB ratio in MLB history with at least 2000 PA:

Player K/BB
Miguel Olivo 6.74
Craig Paquette 5.17
Andres Thomas 5.10
Shawon Dunston 4.93
Bill Bergen 4.80
Tony Armas 4.62
Mariano Duncan 4.54
Corey Patterson 4.53
Carlos Gomez 4.44
Cory Snyder 4.39
Charley Smith 4.35
Delmon Young 4.32
Kurt Abbott 4.29
Alvaro Espinoza 4.26
Paul Casanova 4.26

Matt Gelb ‏@magelb
Amaro: Hope is Young will be everyday RF. Then says he may start year on DL.

Starting the year on the DL, GREAT!

Another negative:

- Has a reputation as a real hacker who doesn't work counts at all, struggles with offspeed stuff, and chases a lot of stuff out and away

This gets worse and worse every minute. Literally by the minute.

He's going to play RF? So he's basically replacing Pence. I renew my call for drug testing MLB GM's.

Can someone report the context in which these comments by Amaro were made? What's he doing with Brown, then? Surely that was a follow-up question.

I do wonder if the Young signing isn't in part due to Amaro's lack of faith in Brown panning out as an everyday starter too.

Delmon Young: Worse then Paul Casanova.

Jack~ this deal has a chance to be rewarding, but not a very large chance. I think Young COULD pay SOME dividends, but not likely. To bring him in at Ruf's expense.... That's why I asked if this is a prelude to another move.

Delmon Young hasn't played RF since 2007.

Delmon Young was easily the best hitter on the Tigers in the ALCS and WS last year. And not too shabby in the ALDS the year before.

750K is really not a bad deal here. He's playing for his baseball life right now.

How many away interleague series do the Phils have early on? Best semi-realistic case is he plays part time and then has a hot series as a DH and we flip him for a Gab Link quality prospect

Is that fake DPatrone? I can't tell.

If Amaro thinks Young is going to be the everyday RF it tells you:

- He is either genuinely nuts/full of sh`t
- He is playing mental games again with Brown and trying to push his buttons

"I do wonder if the Young signing isn't in part due to Amaro's lack of faith in Brown panning out as an everyday starter too."

YOU THINK?

I just don't understand this, and am withholding my pitchfork, until I hear what Amaro says he plans to do with Brown. If he's going to bench him, for Young, it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. The only thing that would make sense is that he's got Brown lined up in a trade.

Unless this was a prepared statement with no questions asked, surely a reporter asked him what he plans to do with Brown.

Probably already spent the 750K on Big Macs.

Yep looks like Delmon is a Phillie.... Rube has painted himself in a corner...He created this so now he has to go outside the box...This move may not be so bad..

I'm okay with signing Young. For a relatively cheap one-year contract, you get some youth(27), some depth, some insurance, a veteran and a right-handed hitting corner outfielder with some power. If he's arrives out of shape, can't play the field or acts like a world-class a-hole, you cut him or trade him. Baggage and all, not a bad deal.

If this were April 1, I actually would seriously entertain the notion that this was a giant hoax by Amaro and/or beat reporters.

It's that ludicrous.

Jack - It depends. It could be more of a way to motivate him and try to push his buttons. Some players might respond well to that.

Have to wait and see in spring training. I am going to be really interested to see what Cholly has to say about Young. Can't imagine it will be that positive given his questionable work ethic in the past and his lack of discipline at the plate.

Seriously? Everyday right fielder? What in the heck is going on?

No way Young gets released in Spring Trainig for performance. He will have to do something foolish off the field for that to happen which I doubt happens.

There are questions though about when he is going to be ready for spring training given his offseason surgery.

I know some will think I'm overreacting to what may just be a minor move.

But I honestly will be surprised if this team wins 85 games this year. I legitimately feel that way, and I doubt much will happen before the season starts to make me think otherwise.

I really don't think Amaro just signed a guy off the scrap heap for under a million and then definitively declared him the opening day starter at a corner outfield spot for a team with playoff aspirations. That wouldn't make sense.

If Young is taking AB away from Brown I think this move is ridiculously bad.

Jack - I was throwing in the $$ involved as part of the evidence that the Phils don't have so much committed to Young such that they'd have some reason to keep playing him if he stunk.

I don't really have much of a problem with a month of bad play from Young and a good month from Ruf in AAA given the chances Young can repeat 2010 and Ruf is a bust. If the Phils run Young out there even though he continues to stink, the problem wouldn't be signing Young (which is a low $ risk, moderate reward signing). The problem would be that they continued to play him even once it was clear their gamble isn't paying off.

Like I said, I'm not in favor of this move. I just don't think it's as bad as characterized.

Jack - so how many games were the Phils winning before they signed Young? 86? What range of possible win totals did this move just move them from and where to?

I'd think it's more likely that the reaction is to an offseason of strange moves than it is to this signing. Unless you have some major love of Ruf -- or Young really is starting 150 games in RF -- what's the big deal?

Was mezza mezza on this at best as a LF (before I saw cyclic's video).

RF though? Rube. WTF? Anyone?

I am fine with this deal. He is a guy with decent pop that could be hungry for his next deal. While he tries to earn a spot and put up his numbers he can push the younger Ruf and Brown. I don't see many negatives in this. If he acts up he's gone.

John Clark NBC10 @johnclarknbc10

Ruben says Delmon is much more comfortable playing in rightfield. Ruben says he has lost 20 pounds

John Clark NBC10 @johnclarknbc10

Ruben says ideally he'd like to see Delmon be everyday RF. if so, Domonic Brown and Darin Ruf will platoon in leftfield

Considering that Young probably pushing 250-255 during the fall and was basically a gimp during the ALCS/WS, even losing 20 pounds probably isn't going to cut it to play everyday on a bad ankle.

This deal is shaping up to be even worse than the Wigginton deal.

But Jack, honestly, how can you say it's no reward? He's entering his age-27 season two years removed from an .826 OPS. I really don't have any particularly love for the guy, but as a lottery ticket and depth signing it's a totally fine move.

Qualifier: If he somehow becomes the everyday RF and sticks there, while producing like he did in 2012, that's obviously a huge negative. But it's totally on Rube and Charlie if that happens. You don't ding a signing because of later mismanagement of the player, you ding the people doing the mismanaging. They're two separate issues.

Sophist: It's the offseason as a whole. I felt that way before this move. I just figured now was as good a time as any to express it.

Before this move, I could at least harbor some wildly irrational notion that they might improve somewhere. But now that they've done this, I know that the moves are basically done. And it looks like a thoroughly mediocre team, to me. I certainly hope otherwise, but that's just how I see it.

"I know some will think I'm overreacting to what may just be a minor move [...] But I honestly will be surprised if this team wins 85 games this year."

If you didn't feel that way before this signing, but do now, certainly you're rational enough to know you're overreacting.

My dream of a Ruf/Young corner OF with Revere in CF is coming true!

OF chances record, here we come!

Wonder what Halladay & Hamels think of this move.

Yuck. I'm starting to feel a bit "Fire Amaro" ish.

Completely agree with fumphis.

Clout: "Wonder what Halladay & Hamels think of this move."

Roy and Cole are calling up new teammate Aaron Cook and asking for private tutoring lessons in how to induce so many ground balls.

MG~ 4:31 post was me. But if RAJ's hopeful the Young will play RF every day, is he going to try to trade Brown? Something tells me Rube has been having way too much to drink lately, with all the comments he's recently made.

So the plan is Brown/Ruf in LF and Young in RF? Is Clark just assuming that or did Amaro actually say that?

Pics or it didn't happen.

Yeah, not loving the idea of Ruf/Brown and Young all in the OF at the same time.

I will say, though, that this is sorta a White Sox / K Williams like move. Guys gets lauded on here often. And it does sorta help that the interleague games are scattered in the season. I don't know.

More than anything these things make you question what kinds of things Amaro factors when constructing this roster.

How many Jewish players do the Phillies have? Could be a clubhouse issue.

Amaro was raised by a Jewish mother I believe.

Red: Wonder what his mom thinks of this.

Rollins
Young
Utley
Howard
Young
Ruiz
Ruf/Brown
Revere
P

Dave Cameron is spot-on here.

The question is whether that upgrade is worth making if it also tempts Charlie Manuel into making Young more than just a part-time player. Young has been a full-time player for most of his career, and at age 27, he probably prefers to remain a full time player, given that he’s not yet settled into the veteran reserve part of his career. Having Young around may very well give Manuel the false pretense of having a regular outfield option other than Brown, and that’s when this deal could come back to harm the Phillies. If Young plays against right-handed pitchers while Brown sits, then the advantage gained by having an upgraded bat against lefties could easily be canceled out.

But, we shouldn’t presume that the Phillies will misuse Young and anoint him as an everyday player. The salary they gave him suggests that he’s not being envisioned as a regular starter. The public comments about the type of player they were searching for suggest that they were looking to complement Brown’s skills, not replace them. There’s a decent chance that, as a part-time lefty masher, Young might turn out as a decent role player. I’m not going to kill the Phillies for making this move. There is some logic to having him on their roster.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/phillies-sign-delmon-young/

Plate appearances are one of Young's incentives that could raise the value of the deal to $3.5M

Cyclic: You couldn't invent a lineup more likely to eliminate whatever value Howard has left than that one.

Is it me or does it feel like 1996 all over again?

Young has only played LF and DH since 2008. These statements from Amaro make no sense.

The PhuturePhillies comment section must be Watts right now.

My thoughts:
1. Watch out Michael Schwimer.

2. Darin Ruf is getting screwed.

3. Amaro made the team worse this offseason, as his "Youngs" (Delmon and Michael) had a combined -3.6 WAR last year. That's negative!!!

Wait, I have a question about another thing that doesn't make sense.

Why would you have Mayberry be the platoon partner with Brown while Young is the everyday player in the other corner?

Mayberry and Young are virtually identical offensively. But Mayberry is *much* better in every other aspect of the game. Wouldn't it make sense to platoon Young so that you maximize his offense while minimizing his innings in the field?

I'm so confused by all of this.

I think this move GUARANTEES that the Phils wouldn't have had the "worse brother". Hell, we've had them BOTH and I have a feeling they'll have turned out sucky in their own way.

While you may feel Ruf is getting screwed GM, I see it as better that Amaro is banking on Ruf and Brown to produce. Young is no first ballot hall-of-famer but he has a somewhat decent resume at least. I really see this as a move to push Brown and Ruf. Brown especially. It's sink or swim time now for Brown. Be a star or consider your career over.

I hope this doesn't affect the result of the 2013 season one little bit.

Everybody calm down. Young will not start the season in RF. Or on the DL. He'll start it in C block.

Joe D.-- I think what you say may be true. Not for Ruf and Brown, but Mayberry and Brown. Ruf hasn't had any time to sink OR swim. Domonic and Mayberry have... I posted a few days ago that Mayberry, Brown and Ruf should duke it out for 2 spots and Nix is gone. Now those "spots" are down to 1.

He's certainly c-blocking Brown or Ruf.

Dom Brown for Soriano now? anyone? anyone?

Didn't Rube make a speech about the Phils needing to show more plate discipline and a better overall offensive approach?

He just signed a guy who is the antithesis.

Basically the move should read

The Phillies signed Step The F Up Domonic Brown

The really scary thought is that this *is* just a prelude to a Dom trade. In all likelihood, that would mean abject mediocrity in RF next year combined with a has-been who wouldn't bring any upside to the team or help build a new core.

I really don't think Brown is being dealt. This has to be a motivational tactic for a guy who should already be working his ass off.

Sophist - Cameron's explainable is reasonable but it isn't how Cholly generally manages with a strong preference for a set everyday lineup and a clear preference for veterans over unproven younger players.

As for a basher vs LHP, Mayberry has a lot more HRs and overall power than Young the last 3 years vs LHP not to mention he is a huge upgrade defensively and on the basepaths.

Before this trade, the BL poster o/u for Ruf HRs was 35. What is it now?

Clout: 38.

The fact that people are having to argue for Mayberry speaks more to the point that this team doesn't have an answer for the corners. They just don't right now. I'm one of Ruben's biggest detractors but this year has called for full-fledged throwing s*** at the wall. I can't blame him for a signing like Young. It's pretty clear his hands are tied with the self-imposed cap and his previous terrible signings.

If you take Amaro at his face value on the comments he made today and that Young is going to be the projected starter in RF, it's baffling.

Have to wait and see until camp actually opens and where Young plays. I don't think physically Young can hold up playing everyday in RF even if he lost 20 pounds. He was an obese gimp last year who had trouble running down the base line let alone covering RF.

Cameron is correct. If they use Young to complement Brown against lefties in RF, they have certainly improved their roster, no matter how much people will complain about Brown not getting the "full-time" reps he deserves. He can't hit LHP. And in the 'ideal' situation, Young repeats his 2010 (and at his age, that isn't as far-fetched as people may think), and for $3.5 million, that's a good offensive OF and a great value.

I just don't believe for a second that they're going to start him 90-100% of the time, or even 50% of the time, in RF. Won't believe it until I see it. Amaro is playing word games by adding the modifier "ideally."

Here's my problem: when has this coaching staff ever properly used a platoon OF to maximize his skill set? Ever? Look at Mayberry's career ABs against RH/LH. If Young gets on a hot streak, are we really supposed to believe he isn't going to get starts against RHP as Brown sits? There is simply no precedent that leads me to believe that the guys in the dugout will optimize one platoon situation, let alone two.

If you asked me what relatively low-cost moves they could make before Spring Training before this happened, I'd have said A) Trade for Kubel and cut Nix, B) Simply cut Nix and add Bourn, C) Platoon Brown with one of the in-house RHB.

All they did here was add a RHB to the equation and executed option C. I didn't understand the point of it when I thought he'd get a bigger chunk of change, but grabbing a guy that has shown he has some real offensive talent, for 1 yr/$750K, that hit .298/.333/.493/.826 (21 HR) just two years ago, and has all the incentive in the world to play his butt off, is basically a can't-lose move. The only way they can lose is if they manage to bungle his usage internally (which, believe me, I acknowledge is definitely a good possibility).

Joe D: Yeah, I mean, when you realize you're arguing the merits of John Mayberry vs. Delmon Young as an everyday player, you end up coming to the conclusion that this is a mediocre baseball team.

Which is sort of how I got to making my statement about being surprised if the team wins more than 85 games. It's not a function of this move so much as this move really just put it in perspective for me.

If Dom Brown figures out that it's finally time to turn on the jets, he's already too late. Outside forces shouldn't dictate one's behavior. If Amaro thinks he needs an overweight, Anti-Semite to spur Dom to try harder, what we've seen is what we've got. I am in the "Dom Brown is AAAA" camp.

Do MLB players (and more specifically, FRINGE MLB players) really need motivation? I mean, was Brown just going through the motions before now?

The only rational explanation is that Dom has been pulling on a door, clearly labeled "push" and RAJ just felt like he had go a different route.

Brown has been yo-yo'd with more than any recent "prospect" I can recall.

Iceman: And in Delmon Young's best (and only decent) season, the one you point to him having the chance to repeat, he was *still* only worth 1.7 WAR because he is so bad defensively and on the basepaths.

People continue to ignore this point. He's bad at everything except for hitting. Really bad. If he isn't a very good hitter (and he has only one season of being close to that level), he's basically useless. Almost everything he gives you at the plate, he takes away in the field. And in case you haven't noticed, there's no DH in the NL.

Delmon Young will be a nice addition to the lineup at a very cheap price ($750K with performance bonuses). Minimum investment for a young and right-handed talented bat. Smart move by the Phils. The only mistake the Phils can make with their batting order would be to continue putting Rollins in the leadoff role instead of Revere.

And people you can't tell me that John Lannan won't benefit the wealth of knowledge he'll gain by pitching in the same rotation has Halladay, Lee & Hamels. None of our big 3 are considered power pitchers so they must be doing something right. Lannan will be a bulldog at the backend of our rotation.

I honestly thought clout was joking about the $3.5M roster/performance bonuses, but I see that Zolecki confirmed it. If nothing else, at least those bonuses should minimize our exposure to him if/when he sucks. He's essentially working on commission.

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