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Tuesday, January 22, 2013



It got swallowed up in the last thread but Amaro supposedly wants a RH bat with power.

The ironic thing is that the last 3 years, Young has 20 HRs in 488 ABs vs LHP. Nothing that special for a corner OF. Young has below average power for a corner OF vs RHP (31 HRs in 1138 ABs).

Mayberry has a 17 HRs in 283 ABs vs LHP and a SLG that is over 80 pts higher.

So if the Phils would decide to start Young in LF vs LHP over Mayberry, they would be playing an option who is clearly a downgrade from a power and defensive/speed perspective. The only thing he gives the Phils over Mayberry is a slightly higher AVG and OBP.

I would support for a trade for a guy like Soriano who provide some clear benefits to the Phils playing in LF.

I don't know what Young brings and he is actually a downgrade over what the Phils presently have now in Nix/Mayberry/Ruf.

The real issue for the Phils is a LH bat to play the OF because Laynce Nix kind of sucks.

At this point in time of the year I am just excited to see any new Phillies news. But this is not anything to get excited about. If they sign Young I would assume that means Ruf will be in AAA, and even though that may seem like the smarted way to go I really hope Ruf would take over LF for the years to come. I have no stats or other proof that he would succeed but I just hoped he would.
But you can't win games on hope alone so I understand why Amaro would try something else.

No. Just no.

"He bounced back to have a very solid season with the Tigers in 2012"

A solid .296 OBP

Only upside to this is that he's still Young (no pun intended - 27), and inexpensive.

Spring invite or a minor league deal. Giving Young a guaranteed MLB deal at even $1.5-$2M is a waste and the Phils would be better off using that money on another pitcher.

MG, exactly. The problem with guaranteed money of any sort is that Young will be given every chance to succeed to avoid eating the money. Young hitting .190 with a .250 OBP? He won't be released until mid July.

Heathers back??

I always come back and read for all my Phillies news but don't post much anymore due to school/work/family.

I'm sure everyone is very thankful about that....ha!

Not interested. He might make Ruf look like a GG winner in left by comparison.

Keep coming back to this: you don't add a guy just to add someone. I don't think he's enough of an improvement over what they've got.

I don't much care for Soriano, and I think he will drive me nuts if we get him (you swung at that???), but at least he represents an upgrade over what they have, offensively. Delmon Young? No thanks.

Let the Mets sign the knuckleheads.

Worst defensive outfield ever

" don't add a guy just to add someone."

My concern at this point is depth. If any one of Nix/Mayberry/Ruf/Brown gets injured, you've got Ender Inciarte and/or Michael Martinez as your bench OF. I would really like to see them bring in someone, anyone.

I wonder what Young's price tag looks like.

maybe if the contract included a mandatory workout regimen or something, this guy has ballooned while his numbers have shrank. Highly doubt thats unrelated.

epi: sarcastic?

sign Bourn to a one year contract.. Make him or Revere play corner.. Win games on the base paths and defense.. Start Mayberry or Ruf in the other corner..

"rolo - Lannan is going to have an ERA between 3.50-4.00? No way. If he gives them an ERA near 4, I would be satisfied."

MG, I based that conclusion on the fact that Lannan's career ERA is 3.80 against everybody but the Phillies. Also, as you are aware, there has been a league-wide decline in offense the last several seasons. Add to that the verifiable fact that Lannan's ERA has been UNDER 4.00 in 3 of the 6 years he's pitched in MLB. Therefore, I'd say there's a 50/50 shot that he could come in under 4.00.

The guy wants to stay in MLB, so I'm taking the under.

Just curious, but on what basis are you ass-u-ming the worst from Lannan, that he'll have an ERA over 4.00?

I vote for an OF of Delmon Young - LF, Andruw Jones - CF, and Milton Bradley - RF.

Delmon Young hasn't proved himself talented enough for teams to overlook the off-field negatives. I'd bring anyone in on a MiLB deal, less than excited about Delmon with guaranteed money unless the team really feels like he has turned the corner both on and off the field. Don't know why they would think that though.

A thousand times no.

***Heathers back??***

What's your damage?

general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. did not deny the Phillies' interest in Young, telling Salisbury, "We've kicked around a lot of stuff. He's among them."

Note that Rube was smart enough not to say "kick the tires" because the obvious question would be "What, the ones around his waist?"

Ugh. This would be as exciting as trading for Endy Chavez or signing So Taguchi.

Let Ruff and Brown play themselves out of a job.By the time they do that (if they do) there will be plenty of options available.

NEPP: "I love my dead, gay son."

"My God, suicide...why?"

~holds up mineral water~

"Does this answer your question?"

I have strong doubts about this guy, too, but...his brother Dmitri did some punk stuff earlier in his career and ended up as a relatively good citizen with the Nats. Maybe Dmitri talks some sense into him

Delmon Young? Is the guy really rehabilitated?

I think MG's analysis at the top is on the money: He really isn't any better than what they have.

Unless it's a minor league deal for depth purposes I would say "no".

Please, no, on Young. If you're not going to get a dead solid upgrade, play with the pieces you have and keep your powder dry for when you can.

MG: In four seasons where Lannan was a full time starter (25+ starts) he pitched to a sub 4 ERA 3 times. It is not off the wall that awh would think he might put up an ERA between 3.50-4.00.

On Delmon Young- I'm not really sure what to think. On one hand I don't think signing a guy who is entering his age 27 year is necessarily a bad thing. He also does have some pop in his bat. What gives me pause is that he is recovering from ankle surgery and he has yet to be consistent from one year to the next.

For this story though I think this may just be a base of Amaro saying they are looking at options. And really, that is his job as GM. I find it funny that people accuse him of not waiting out for other guys but that looking at all options in the outfield is terrible.

For those who haven't tired of reading on Stan Musial's death, a pretty good obit:

For the sabr-oriented, look for Dick Groat's endorsement of lineup protection.

What's the point of this?

I want to go back to the last thread where MG is lamenting Erik Bedard's MiL deal and says he'd rather have him than Lannan. That's a bet I'll make right now: that Lannan out-pitches Bedard by any reasonable statistical measure next year.

It's not exactly like picking between steaks at Ruth's Chris, but Bedard is finished. Lannan is under age 30 and has been consistently and reliably mediocre from day 1 of his career. When you have three #1 starters, it's OK to have a guy like this at the back of the rotation.

To go back to the last thread which ended up being short lived, Aumont and Gillies playing in the WBC is a good thing in my opinion.

Gillies should be getting a decent amount of playing time for a weak Canada OF. It will be insightful to see if he perform against a higher levle of competition. What he shows could play a big part in where he starts the year, either in Reading or Allentown.

Aumont will be making a case for his spot in the bullpen. He has proven to have the stuff to get MLB hitters out, and the WBC will get to showcase it some more. It wouldn't be that far fetched to think if he implodes for Team Canada, that he ends up back in AAA to start.

Bedard has generally underachieved and been unhealthy his whole career. Last year, he was given a great opportunity and was simply bad. I'm not much on 'makeup' and 'intangibles' but, to teh extent they exist, Bedard skipped his ration. I'm with Iceman - give me consistently mediocre and healthy over consistently worse than he should be and on the DL for half the season.

Hasn't the ball club had already filled its quota of guys named "Young" who can't field & have forgotten how to hit?

TTI: "What gives me pause is that he is recovering from ankle surgery and he has yet to be consistent from one year to the next."

That's what gives you pause? Not the last two seasons of a combined .267/.299/.402 line? Not the fact that he's horrible defensively and on the basepaths? Not the fact that he attacked an umpire and yelled anti-semitic slurs at random strangers?

"I find it funny that people accuse him of not waiting out for other guys but that looking at all options in the outfield is terrible."

TTI, true. Some posters here have such an abject distaste for anything that the Phillies FO does, that Amaro is "damned if he does, and damned if he doesn't".

Absolutly not I would rather them go after soriano or carlos lee to play the outfield, but they need to go with ruf in lf and brown in rf. I know this doesn't sound like much but Buster Olney has heard from scouts that darin ruf could well be the next matt holliday and dom brown was 3rd best prospect for a reeason in 2011. Again if one of the two pan out we will be just fine this year and if not you go after hitting not pitching at the dealine rueb!

"Let Ruff and Brown play themselves out of a job.By the time they do that (if they do) there will be plenty of options available."

jr, this.

Highly doubt any real mlb scout thinks Ruf could be the next Holliday. If so, they are saying that Ruf will be hitting .326/.387/.586 this season, in his 26 age season.

Iceman - "I want to go back to the last thread where MG is lamenting Erik Bedard's MiL deal and says he'd rather have him than Lannan."

Never remotely said that. I said I wish they had Bedard instead of 2 stiffs in Cook/Lopez as their potential 6th starter.

In order to have probably had a realistic chance to sign Bedard though, they probably would have told him he had a legit chance to compete for the 5th starter spot in camp.

I said at worst Bedard pitched really well in camp, won the 5th starter spot on Opening Day , and Lannan started the season as a long man which this team is going to need with a version of Halladay that probably doesn't go quite as deep in games, KK, and Bedard/Lannan.

As for the minor league signings I like this offseason that Amaro made - I would include Fields and J. Cruz.

Quintero is 'ok' as a veteran journeyman catcher who actually still is a good defensive player and fills in while Chooch is suspended.

I wouldn't mind Young at all either on a minor league deal since the Phils have very little organizational depth right now at OF as epicurean made a great point of earlier in this thread.

If you want a full list of the transactions the Phils have made this offseason so far, this is the best site:

Jack: Implied in my statement about being consistent from one year to the next is the fact that he has posted less than stellar lines. Prior to those last two seasons he was putting up slash lines that, while not stellar, were not necessarily terrible across the board. I mean his age 24 season he went .298/.333/.493. The year prior he was .284/.308/.425.

I am not all that concerned about his defense because he will be playing left field. I'm not saying boot left field but as far as important defensive positions- that is fairly low.

And the fact that he attacked an umpire I chalk up to being a dumb 20 year old kid. The arrest this past year is someone being stupid and getting drunk. He served his time for the action.

Also, want to be clear- I'm not necessarily advocating signing him.

Let's sign Wily Mo Pena and Lastings Milledge while we're at it.

In fact, since Inciarte was claimed by the Dbacks in the Rule 5 draft in Dec, I am not sure who would be the OF called up if the Phils had an injury.

There are minor league journeyman like Rich Thompson and Derrick Mitchell at Lehigh and of course Mini-Mart.

Given the Phils lack of organizatioinal positional player depth, I still bet Mini-Mart sees at least a few weeks on the roster this season.

He's harder to bury than Jason in the old crappy Friday the 13th movies.

Highly doubt any real mlb scout thinks Ruf could be the next Holliday. If so, they are saying that Ruf will be hitting .326/.387/.586 this season, in his 26 age season.

Yeah, they expect him to tire in September, dropping him from .350/.425/.650, due to all that running in the OF all year long.

"In fact, since Inciarte was claimed by the Dbacks...

MG, I think you mean he was claimed FROM the Dbacks, no?

rolo - I did. If they need to call up a CF, it probably will be Enciarte. Not sure who it would be if it is a corner OF.

lore: yes, except for the part about being afraid of injury.

At least Amaro is finally starting to understand that we need more hitting.

I see the DPat Broken Record Parade is still active.

FWIW, if Cook or Lopez have to start a significant number of games, we're f$%#ed anyway IMO.

Young on a minor league deal? Meh. No risk there, I guess you probably do that. Not sure that gets it done, though. Not a fan of the guy, can you tell?

Sil, a MiL might get it done as far as Young is concerned, especially if he feels he's going to have a decent shot at making the roster in Philly.

As a contrast, if you were Young would you sign in Arizona, where they have a surplus of MLB OF?

Incarte is a Rule 5, you can't put him in the minors. He's either MLB or back to Arizona, or the Phillies would need to work out another deal. I think its common for teams to keep a Rule 5 for ~$100k or something like that.

So people really want to blow a decent first round draft pick, to a division rival, no less, for one year of Michael Bourn at an inflated value that will put you over the luxury tax? For a skill set you don't really need? No thank you.

say: let ruf play right
then we put delmon in left
revere wears jetpack

Todd Zolecki @ToddZolecki

Delmon Young has agreed to a one-year, $750,000 contract with the Phillies.

Worst. Corner OF defense. EVAR

wow... delmon young is actually happening?

Is the Young signing confirmed?

Ben Revere was said to be crying in the corner when he was told he'd be covering LF and RF in addition to CF.

Revere will probably set a record for putouts recorded by a CF this year.

Lets see what kind of shape he is in when he comes to camp.

Phillies @Phillies

#Phillies sign OF Delmon Young to 1-year, $750K contract that includes performance bonuses.

Nice waste of $750K, r00b. Friggin' idiot.

We're gonna look pretty silly when Delmon Young finally lives up to his potential as a #1 pick overall and wins an MVP this year.

Well, going into the off-season, Rube said he wanted young players...the only problem was that none of us realized he meant players named Young.


A major league contract?

I'm guessing from the $750K guaranteed that yes, it is a Major League deal.

There are said to be incentives in the deal as well for if he plays well.

Remember when the Phils had multi-dimensional OFs? Victorino and Werth, before that Abreu. Heck even Pat Burrell gave you Power and Patience if nothing else. Now we have mostly half to one dimensional OFs. Let's see:
Revere can field and steal bases;
Brown can take pitches;
Young can kind of hit for power;
AAAAberry can field OK and hit LHP for power;
Laynce Nix can hit some as a LH platoon corner OF (FWIW, his lifetime pinchhitting is awful).
Darin Ruf, well, he can go Iron Pig it up. No sense rolling the dice when you can play Delmon Young in his stead.

Well, look at it this way:

He's guaranteed 750K. The Phillies have Eaton way more money than that to get rid of guys they don't think are good enough or fit into the clubhouse.

Unless he's a complete fool, my guess is that Young behaves himself because he knows if the Phillies blow him out the door because of behavior issues it's highly unlikely he gets picked up by any other MLB team.

Now, can he produce?

If you're saying the deal is fine because it's only 750K, you're missing the entire point. No one cares about how much they're paying Delmon Young--obviously he's not good enough to take up any significant portion of the budget.

It's that they're going to play him over Dom Brown or Darin Ruf, two guys who are likely to give you at least the same production as Young, and about whom you kind of what to know if they're going to be part of your team going forward, since you control them for a few more years.

I recognize the need to play someone like Hunter Pence over Dom Brown--Pence is a demonstrably better player, and they were trying to win a WS. But why are you honestly trying to give playing time to someone so mediocre, when you have other mediocre guys who deserve the playing time more?

A whole bunch of mediocre players does not give you "depth." You can only play 9 players at a time.

Anything hit to the left side is going all the way to the wall.

/s (kinda)

Brown will almost certainly be in RF so it'll be Ruf that gets the shaft in this signing.

Which, is kinda rough I know, for Ruf. So, Rough Day For Ruf is a potential headline in addition to Phillies get YOUNGer

Isn't it still possible that Ruf and Mayberry outperform Young in ST?

Surely they wouldn't ignore that.

This is where a stat like WAR is actually useful.

Delmon Young is a very, very mediocre hitter. But sure, even mediocre hitters have a little bit of value, right? Well, not when they're terrible defensively and as a baserunner, too. Delmon Young's career has basically defined replacement level. His total WAR over his career is 0.8.

The idea that "we needed a right-handed hitter" is a false construct. We needed better baseball players. What Delmon Young gives you as a "right-handed hitter" he takes away in other parts of the game. Since he can't DH in the National League, he has to play the field, and when he has to do that, he's a replacement-level player. He does nothing to make this team better.

This is Rube's attempt to play Gillick and find the next Werth or Victorino.

Good luck with that, Rube.

D Young isn't the kind of vet I see Charlie giving playing time to just cos. He seems to lack a lot of veteran qualities -- he's the anti-Ibanez. If Ruf hits, he'll play.

At least Amaro is finally starting to understand that we need more hitting.

Posted by: DPatrone | Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 02:19 PM

I see the DPat Broken Record Parade is still active.

Posted by: rolo | Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 02:20 PM

Rolo~ That wasn't me. But the post from earlier this morning was. Like I said Young and inexpensive. Gives creedence to my assertion as to not wanting to go over the cap. Again~ Just like the Lannan signing, they couldn't find anyone better? To sign this guy is leaving us all scratching our heads. What is our GM thinking?


will Young be in the best shape of his life when he reports to ST?

Jack, I would actually agree.

But I look at it another way - I look at this as a depth signing, and a way to mitigate what I call the "Ruf Risk".

To wit, if Ruf shows in ST that he cannot produce, you have more options.

If Ruf shows that he CAN produce, then having Young gives you even more personnel options.

Against RHP Young hits .275/.307/.401

Against RHP, Nix hits .253/.297/.447

In effect, Young gives them the ability to move Nix in a trade in ST or in the season, because Young is a more versatile bat off the bench (He can serviceably hit both RHP and LHP). Or, Young himself can be moved if they feel he's superfluous.

But I think the way to look at it is that the Phillies just bought a $750K insurance policy in case Darin ruf turns out to be a flop.

Young hasn't been great in recent years, but he is a serviceable bat - .307./341/.483 against LHP in his career.

I would bet that Ruf will start the year in AAA as the result of this signing, Sophist.

He'll have to hit well there to get a callup...and Young will have to be horrid.

I can possibly, maybe, Soriano in LF over Ruf? But Young? Rube's got to be kidding, right?

Seriously, is this a prelude for another move? Thoughts?

Really nothing whatsoever to dislike about this deal. Guy OPSed .826 in 2010 in over 600 PA, and he's entering his prime years. There's just no way on Earth that that lottery ticket isn't worth 1/750k. He might be a total douchenozzle but probably no more than anyone else in the business. Honestly this is a pretty laudable deal by Rube (and that will still be true if Young washes out hard).

nepp: agreed.

At $750k, I expect the team to have a quick hook if Delmon under performs or acts out in any way. It's a fairly insignificant financial commitment, end of the bench type money for a vet...(wish I worked in a field where $750k was insignificant money.)

NEPP, see my post above. I look at Young as an insurance policy in case Ruf flames out. I agree with Sophist: If Ruf hits he'll be the one getting the playing time.

Jack, to answer your point about the money directly, I was merely stating that if this doesn't work out they'll eat the money because it's not too much to swallow.

I agree with your overall point though, but disagree that this signing is going to impact Ruf - if Ruf hits.

Outfielder Delmon Young has agreed to a one-year, $750,000 contract with the Phillies, Senior Vice President & General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. announced today. The contract includes performance bonuses.

Young, 27, batted .267 with 27 doubles, 18 home runs and 74 RBI in 151 games for the Detroit Tigers last year. Against left-handed pitchers, he hit .308 (56-182) with a .500 slugging percentage and, defensively, made 29 starts in left field. In 13 postseason games, Young batted .313 with three home runs and a team-best nine RBI and was named MVP of the American League Championship Series.

NEPP - I don't really have a problem with Ruf starting the year in AAA. 33 MLB AB and no AAA AB yet. He'll be the first guy up if they need corner OF help, and there isn't much harm in seeing what he can do at AAA. If he continues to mash in AAA and Young is posting .260/.300/.400, I think Ruf will see his chance just as he would if he were getting part-time AB with the Phils.

This isn't like Brown where he's done all he can at the minor league level and needs major league AB to prove himself. Ruf has a lot to prove. And Young isn't this steady veteran hard-working presence. He's the kind of guy that isn't going to keep getting chances.

rolo: I disagree with most of what you said there.

First off, using spring training performance as a measure for who makes the team is a really bad idea, no matter what. You're looking at 75 PAs against who knows what quality of pitching, with guys who are just getting their swings back. I fundamentally disagree with the entire premise of "guy who plays better in spring training should win the job" from the start. It's just wrong.

Second, I find it rather unlikely that Ruf starts with the presumption of the job, and he loses it to Young only if he fails. More likely, Young starts with the presumption of the job, and Ruf only wins it if he is wildly successful.

Third, if you think they're going to cut a left-handed hitter in Nix in favor of Delmon Young for the purpose of hitting against righty pitchers, you are out of your mind.

Finally, it's a massive stretch of the word to call Young "versatile." Yes, he can hit LHP pretty decently. But he's not particularly good against righties, he can't play the field, and he can't run. So he really only does one thing. He offers you nothing of value except for a pinch-hitter against a lefty, which is almost never going to actually play out, because a manager would almost always pull the lefty for the righty once Delmon is announced (and almost all closers, who don't get subbed out, are righties).

So, yeah. I'm not buying it.

Look at it this way team:

If Ruf proves he can hit MLB pitching, then Young becomes redundant and can be moved for a PTBNL, cash considerations or some dude.

If Ruf can't hit MLB pitching, then they at least have a guy who has proven he can be a league average hitter.

Sophist: I have no particular affinity for Darin Ruf, either.

But I know what Delmon Young is going to do. He's going to be a mediocre hitter who doesn't walk and who plays terrible defense. It's not like you're replacing the "volatility" of Darin Ruf with a solid, league-average player. That would make sense.

You're replaceing a question mark with a known replacement-level player. If Ruf stinks, guess what? He's Delmon Young. So why not go with Ruf?

Jack, I never said Ruf's proof woould be based solely on ST.


rolo: That post implies you think Ruf will be given the job for a couple months to start? Because how else would we know if he can hit MLB pitching except to give him the job for an extended period of time?

Everyone else is operating under the assumption that Ruf will start at AAA, and will only be promoted through some combo of being awesome / Young being terrible.

Not a big Delmon Young fan, but this is a pretty good low downside/big upside move for Amaro. Worst case scenario would be Manuel running Young out there every game to put up mediocre numbers, which I don't think Charlie will do, but even if he did, Ruben can just cut Young to stop any such nonsense. Upside is you get a contributing bat. Ceiling would be an Alex Gordon like late-blooming former top prospect.

Jack - I don't feel particularly strong about this signing. I'd prefer they had done something else. Young has hit .298/.333/.493 before, and he's 27 so he's likely still capable of doing something like that. I don't see $750K as too much to gamble to see if he can do it again because no one has any idea what Ruf will do. If both Ruf and Young hit, no great harm done. Ruf will start in 2014. If Ruf stinks, it doesn't matter. If Young stinks, I think he'll be quickly replaced and not be this drain on PA (I wouldn't say the same if he were a guy like M Young of Ibanez).

Jack, be careful. I implied nothing and merely stated that everything was contingent on Ruf proving he can hit MLB pitching.

There are many scenarios where that can happen (or not), I just didn't think it was necessary to list every single one of them in order to hedge my bets so you or someone else wouldn't nitpick what I wrote.

It would have led to an unnecessarily long and boring post.

If they put Young in RF and Ruf in LF, Revere would set the MLB record for most chances by an outfielder.

Here's another cool stat:

Young's career walk rate: 5%

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