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Monday, January 07, 2013

Comments

gonna go over on Dom's OPS and Howard's home runs. under on Revere's BA and Young's OBA.

Ruf's the real wild card, I don't think he deserves 225 PA but I bet Charlie runs him out there as the starter for April and then they go from there on how he does.

over on Phillies wins too.

Iceman: I don't have time to continue this debate, and everyone is sick of it anyhow. So we will have to agree to disagree about Boras's greatness as an agent.

Let me drop you a piece of friendly advice, though, before I get on with my working day. The advice is: your arguments, which are generally pretty cogent, would be a lot more persuasive if you didn't punctuate every post with gratuitous personal attacks like, "BAP is ignoring these facts because they are inconvenient to his argument." I mean, if I really do omit key facts, feel free to point that out. But, in this case, I didn't ignore the facts at all; I merely disagreed with Jack's (and your) interpretation of those facts. Hence, when you claim that I'm being intellectually dishonest, you're not only undermining your argument, but also acting like a douchebag.

you guys sure fight a lot

Those are some extremely rose-colored over-unders. If Vegas were setting the odds, I'd say those numbers would be considerably lower across the board (save for Halladay's ERA, which would be set higher).

I'll take the over on everything because we're that good.

All of the pitching ones are directly in line with those pitchers' three-year track records. Can't really find which ones would be considered rose-colored, unless you expect Howard and Utley to miss significant time and the Phillies to suck, in which case you'd clearly be taking the under.

Phillies: 87 wins - OVER
Phillies All-Stars: 2 - even
More MLB signings by Ruben Amaro: 2 - meh
Chase Utley: 135 games played - OVER
Chase Utley: 18 home runs - OVER
Ryan Howard: 33 home runs - OVER
Ryan Howard: 115 RBI - OVER
Ryan Howard: .820 OPS - OVER
Carlos Ruiz: .288 batting average - UNDER
Michael Young: .340 on-base percentage - UNDER
Jimmy Rollins: 20 home runs - OVER
Domonic Brown: .750 OPS - OVER
Domonic Brown: 15 homers - OVER
Darin Ruf: 10 homers - OVER
Darin Ruf: 225 plate appearances - OVER
Ben Revere: 35 steals - UNDER
Ben Revere: .298 batting average - UNDER
Ben Revere: 1 home run - even
Roy Halladay: 3.00 ERA - OVER
Roy Halladay: 200 innings - OVER
Cliff Lee: 6.00 K/BB ratio - OVER
Cliff Lee: 220 innings - OVER
Cole Hamels: 18 wins - UNDER
Cole Hamels: 2.85 ERA - OVER
Cole Hamels: 215 strikeouts - UNDER
Kyle Kendrick: 10 wins - OVER
Mike Adams: 50 appearances - UNDER
Jonathan Papelbon: 40 saves - OVER

must remember to bookmark this thread

Phillies: 87 wins (OVER)
Phillies All-Stars: 2 (PUSH)
More MLB signings by Ruben Amaro: 2 (OVER)
Chase Utley: 135 games played (OVER)
Chase Utley: 18 home runs (OVER)
Ryan Howard: 33 home runs (OVER)
Ryan Howard: 115 RBI (OVER)
Ryan Howard: .820 OPS (UNDER)
Carlos Ruiz: .288 batting average (OVER)
Michael Young: .340 on-base percentage (UNDER)
Jimmy Rollins: 20 home runs (UNDER)
Domonic Brown: .750 OPS (OVER)
Domonic Brown: 15 homers (UNDER)
Darin Ruf: 10 homers (OVER)
Darin Ruf: 225 plate appearances (OVER)
Ben Revere: 35 steals (OVER)
Ben Revere: .298 batting average (OVER)
Ben Revere: 1 home run (UNDER)
Roy Halladay: 3.00 ERA (OVER)
Roy Halladay: 200 innings (OVER)
Cliff Lee: 6.00 K/BB ratio (OVER)
Cliff Lee: 220 innings (UNDER)
Cole Hamels: 18 wins (UNDER)
Cole Hamels: 2.85 ERA (UNDER)
Cole Hamels: 215 strikeouts (UNDER)
Kyle Kendrick: 10 wins (OVER)
Mike Adams: 50 appearances (OVER)
Jonathan Papelbon: 40 saves (UNDER)

[blockquote]I'll take the over on everything because we're that good.

Posted by: NEPP | Monday, January 07, 2013 at 12:34 PM[/blockquote]


Seriously kid? I havent even been here in like 3 days and you still obsess?

Ugh, hate html errors like that.

I'd be happy with all of those.

Corey: I'll give you Kendrick (10 wins) & Lee (6.00 K/BB ratio), and MAYBE even Halladay's 3.00 ERA, based on overall track record.

But a 2.85 ERA, 215 strikeouts, and 18 wins from Cole? He has never won 18 games and has bettered the first two figures exactly once in his entire career -- and that was by exactly 1 strikeout and .06 points of ERA. Same with Papelbon, who has exceeded 40 saves only once in his career, and that was when he played for a 95-win team. An over-under shouldn't be set at the extreme high end of recent career norms. By definition, it should be set right in the middle.

bap: I spot checked a few of the over/under numbers against Bill James projections. I wonder if that's where they were developed.

Oooh, this is fun.

Phillies: 87 wins = Under
Phillies All-Stars: 2 = Under
More MLB signings by Ruben Amaro: 2 = Over
Chase Utley: 135 games played = Under
Chase Utley: 18 home runs = Under
Ryan Howard: 33 home runs = Over
Ryan Howard: 115 RBI = Over
Ryan Howard: .820 OPS = Over
Carlos Ruiz: .288 batting average = Over
Michael Young: .340 on-base percentage = Under
Jimmy Rollins: 20 home runs = Over
Domonic Brown: .750 OPS = Under
Domonic Brown: 15 homers = Under
Darin Ruf: 10 homers = Over
Darin Ruf: 225 plate appearances = Over
Ben Revere: 35 steals = Over
Ben Revere: .298 batting average = Over
Ben Revere: 1 home run = Push
Roy Halladay: 3.00 ERA = Over
Roy Halladay: 200 innings = Under
Cliff Lee: 6.00 K/BB ratio = Over
Cliff Lee: 220 innings = Under
Cole Hamels: 18 wins = Over
Cole Hamels: 2.85 ERA = Over
Cole Hamels: 215 strikeouts = Over
Kyle Kendrick: 10 wins = Under
Mike Adams: 50 appearances = Over
Jonathan Papelbon: 40 saves = Under

I'm pessimistic on Utley, Halladay, Brown, and the team's win total. Optimistic for Hamels, Ruf, and Revere. Wild predictions are exactly that - but it was fun anyway.

bap: So not exactly Bill James...

His projection for Cole is:

14 wins, 3.23 ERA, 211 Ks

Also optimistic for Howard to have a nice bounce-back year, crazy as that might make me.

Way too early on a few of these until you get some early reports out of spring training. Also have to see the money lines which is what really makes/breaks a prop bet.

I would definitely take the 'under' Papelbon. If they even have a prop bet for him this year, I bet it is 38/38.5 which is really a much tougher bet.

I also love the under on JRoll under 20 HRs too.

Howard/Utley prop bets I would stay from.

87 wins - over
All-Stars: 2 - over
More MLB signings by Ruben Amaro: 2 - under
Chase Utley: 135 games played - push
Chase Utley: 18 home runs - over
Ryan Howard: 33 home runs - over
Ryan Howard: 115 RBI - over
Ryan Howard: .820 OPS - over
Carlos Ruiz: .288 batting average - under
Michael Young: .340 on-base percentage - under
Jimmy Rollins: 20 home runs - under
Domonic Brown: .750 OPS - over
Domonic Brown: 15 homers - over
Darin Ruf: 10 homers - over
Darin Ruf: 225 pa's - over
Ben Revere: 35 steals - over
Ben Revere: .298 batting average - over
Ben Revere: 1 home run - push (inside park)
Roy Halladay: 3.00 ERA - over
Roy Halladay: 200 innings - under
Cliff Lee: 6.00 K/BB ratio - over
Cliff Lee: 220 innings - over
Cole Hamels: 18 wins - under
Cole Hamels: 2.85 ERA - under
Cole Hamels: 215 strikeouts - over
Kyle Kendrick: 10 wins - under
Mike Adams: 50 appearances - under
Jonathan Papelbon: 40 saves - under

Alright, I'll have at it:

Phillies: 87 wins = Under
Phillies All-Stars: 2 = Push
More MLB signings by Ruben Amaro: 2 = (Don't understand the question; MLB signings during the season or before it starts? Is a trade a "signing?")

Chase Utley: 135 games played = Under
Chase Utley: 18 home runs = Under
Ryan Howard: 33 home runs = Under
Ryan Howard: 115 RBI = Under
Ryan Howard: .820 OPS = Under
Carlos Ruiz: .288 batting average = Under
Michael Young: .340 on-base percentage = Under
Jimmy Rollins: 20 home runs = Under
Domonic Brown: .750 OPS = Under
Domonic Brown: 15 homers = Under
Darin Ruf: 10 homers = Over
Darin Ruf: 225 plate appearances = Over
Ben Revere: 35 steals = Over
Ben Revere: .298 batting average = Over
Ben Revere: 1 home run = Push
Roy Halladay: 3.00 ERA = Over
Roy Halladay: 200 innings = Under
Cliff Lee: 6.00 K/BB ratio = Over
Cliff Lee: 220 innings = Under
Cole Hamels: 18 wins = Under
Cole Hamels: 2.85 ERA = Under
Cole Hamels: 215 strikeouts = Under
Kyle Kendrick: 10 wins = Over
Mike Adams: 50 appearances = Over
Jonathan Papelbon: 40 saves = Under

Also optimistic for Howard to have a nice bounce-back year, crazy as that might make me.

Posted by: Sil Campusano

Do we need any more evidence to prove that "Sil" is short for "Silly"? :)

Only ones that I would say I am pretty confident in are:

Rollins HR: 20 = UNDER
Cliff Lee: 220 innings = UNDER
Cole Hamels: 18 wins = UNDER
Mike Adams: 50 appearances = OVER
Darin Ruf: 10 HRs = OVER
Ryan Howard: 33 HRs = OVER

I'm probably the least confident in the Howard pick (not surprisingly).

MG: I'm pretty sure Corey just made these up--these aren't from Vegas or anything.

At least I assume so, considering most of them are skewed pretty optimistic.

Phillies: 87 wins - - - - - - - - - - - OVER
Phillies All-Stars: 2 - - - - - - - - - EVEN
More MLB signings by Ruben Amaro: 2 - - - UNDER
Chase Utley: 135 games played - - - - - OVER
Chase Utley: 18 home runs - - - - - - - OVER
Ryan Howard: 33 home runs - - - - - - - OVER
Ryan Howard: 115 RBI - - - - - - - - - - OVER
Ryan Howard: .820 OPS - - - - - - - - - - UNDER
Carlos Ruiz: .288 batting average - - - - UNDER
Michael Young: .340 on-base percentage - UNDER
Jimmy Rollins: 20 home runs - - - - - - - UNDER
Domonic Brown: .750 OPS - - - - - - - - - UNDER
Domonic Brown: 15 homers - - - - - - - - UNDER
Darin Ruf: 10 homers - - - - - - - - - - OVER
Darin Ruf: 225 plate appearances - - - - OVER
Ben Revere: 35 steals - - - - - - - - - OVER
Ben Revere: .298 batting average - - - - UNDER
Ben Revere: 1 home run - - - - - - - - - EVEN
Roy Halladay: 3.00 ERA - - - - - - - - - OVER
Roy Halladay: 200 innings - - - - - - - - UNDER
Cliff Lee: 6.00 K/BB ratio - - - - - - - OVER
Cliff Lee: 220 innings - - - - - - - - - UNDER
Cole Hamels: 18 wins - - - - - - - - - - OVER
Cole Hamels: 2.85 ERA - - - - - - - - - OVER
Cole Hamels: 215 strikeouts - - - - - - - UNDER
Kyle Kendrick: 10 wins - - - - - - - - - OVER
Mike Adams: 50 appearances - - - - - - - OVER
Jonathan Papelbon: 40 saves - - - - - - - UNDER

Phillies: 87 Wins - Push
Phillies All-Stars: 2 - Push
MLB Signings By Ruben Amaro: 2 - Under
Charlie Uses Papelbon In Tied Road Game: 1 - Under
Utley: 135 G - Under
Utley: 18 HR - Over
Howard: 33 HR - Over
Howard: 115 RBI - Over
Howard: .820 OPS - Over
Howard Contract Mentioned In Derogatory Manner On BL: ∞ - Over
Ruiz: .288 BA - Under
Young: .340 OBP - Over
Rollins: 20 HR - Under
Rollins Benched For Slacking: 1 - Push
Brown: .750 OPS - Under
Brown: 15 HR - Under
Brown Spans Of ≥10 Consecutive G Injured/Unable To Play: 2 - Push
Ruf: 10 HR - Over
Ruf: 225 PA - Over
Revere: 35 SB - Over
Revere: .298 BA - Under
Revere: 1 HR - Under
Halladay: 3.00 ERA - Over
Halladay: 200 IP - Under
Halladay Appears Ready To Stroke Out On Pitching Mound: 5 G - Over
Lee: 6.00 K/BB - Over
Lee: 220 IP - Under
Hamels: 18 Wins - Under
Hamels: 2.85 ERA - Over
Hamels: 215 K - Under
Kendrick: 10 Wins - Under
Dubee Visibly Wants To Kill Kendrick: 15X - Over
Adams: 50 Appearances - Over
Papelbon: 40 Saves - Over

Matt Gelb reports this from Ruben Amaro Jr. regarding our OF:

"We're likely going with what we've got," Ruben Amaro Jr. said.

Some announcer prop bets:

Wheels:
Gushes over Revere's speed: 500
References a "Snowman inning": 4

Sarge
Says something insightful: 3

TMac
Goes bombastic over something trivial: 2916 (162x9x2)

So is position roster coming into focus?

1B: Howard, 2B: Utley, SS: Rollins, 3B: Young, C: Ruiz/Kratz, OF: Revere/Brown/Ruf/Nix/Mayberry Jr., IF: Frandsen/Galvis

I guess I'd prefer Galvis start in AAA. The Phils could probably pick up a cheap veteran to fill the role Galvis would fill (mostly backup SS). Frandsen can play SS, as can Young, but I'm not sure either is preferred. Of course, if Rollins got injured long-term, Phils could just bring up Galvis.

Howard had 14 HRs in 71 games last year playing at about 50%. The two years before that: 33 and 31. So the 33 number is probably right on as a betting line. I'm going to go OVER and say 36.

Jack - They are and prop bets won't be out until late Jan/early Feb

There not bad and something different to talk about.

Casino oddsmakers set the marker with the goal of achieving equal betting on both sides. Sometimes the placement of the marker can be skewed by the anticipated bias of the betting patrons. Classic example: at Tahoe & Reno casinos, the point spread on 49ers games tends to be more in the 49ers' favor than it probably should be. The reason: the bettors at those casinos are disproportionately comprised of 49er fans, who tend to be irrationally optimistic in their betting patterns.

Considering that Corey is setting these over-unders for a Beerleaguer audience, I would say the same principle applies.

Edmundo: I would also add--

T-Mac predicts a ball might be leaving the yard and it's caught by an infielder: 12.5

To those who have asked ... yes these are Beerleaguer-created, as the intro states.

Going back to BAP: Papelbon saved 38 games on an 81-win team last season. Reasonable that 38-40 is his range with this team, since the Phillies are designed to play low-scoring, close games. His save totals with the Red Sox aren't directly relevant.

I can see your beef with the Hamels projections, but by a quick count of the first 24 comments of this thread, Hamels has 8 'over' votes and 13 'unders.' Last two years he's averaged 16 wins and a 2.92 ERA, almost directly in line with the numbers. Strikeouts are a bit high. In retrospect they should be back around 203-208.

Do we need any more evidence to prove that "Sil" is short for "Silly"? :)
Silly Silvestre, that's me.

GTown: Brilliant!

GTown Dave - You almost always give me a good laugh. Well done.

Wonder if Dubee can get through an entire spring training without giving KK either some type of criticism or back-handed compliment.

what would the over/under be set at for sarge talking about a pitchers "slidepiece"?

Speaking of TMac - What is the status of his contract?

He signed a 5-year deal in Nov. 2007 and there hasn't been any word on an extension or new deal.

TMac tweets alot yet there is no indication on his contract status except several generic tweets since the season ended that he is excited about spring training/games resuming Feb. 23.

Yeah, no doubt these are skewed toward the optimistic side, but I'd expect nothing less on Beerleaguer. There will be plenty of negativity in the comments to balance it out!

MG: you follow TMac?

Kyle Kendrick has won at least 10 games in 4 of his 6 seasons with the Phillies and won at least 10 games in every season in which he's started at least 20 games.

So all you folks on the "under"... I'd just say, "Bring it!"

Announcer: "Rich, can you talk about how Kyle's improved over the years?"

Dubee: "Well, he's still here, somehow, so ..."

lorecore - No. Just looked at this account and did a quick scan.

for the record i guess:

Phillies: 87 wins [OVER]

Phillies All-Stars: 2 [OVER]

More MLB signings by Ruben Amaro: 2 [UNDER]

Chase Utley: 135 games played [UNDER]

Chase Utley: 18 home runs [OVER]

Ryan Howard: 33 home runs [OVER]

Ryan Howard: 115 RBI [OVER]

Ryan Howard: .820 OPS [OVER]

Carlos Ruiz: .288 batting average [UNDER]

Michael Young: .340 on-base percentage [ UNDER]

Jimmy Rollins: 20 home runs [OVER]

Domonic Brown: .750 OPS [OVER]

Domonic Brown: 15 homers [OVER]

Darin Ruf: 10 homers [OVER]

Darin Ruf: 225 plate appearances [OVER]

Ben Revere: 35 steals [OVER]

Ben Revere: .298 batting average [UNDER]

Ben Revere: 1 home run [OVER]

Roy Halladay: 3.00 ERA [OVER]

Roy Halladay: 200 innings [OVER]

Cliff Lee: 6.00 K/BB ratio [OVER]

Cliff Lee: 220 innings [UNDER]

Cole Hamels: 18 wins [UNDER]

Cole Hamels: 2.85 ERA [UNDER]

Cole Hamels: 215 strikeouts [UNDER]

Kyle Kendrick: 10 wins [OVER]

Mike Adams: 50 appearances [OVER]

Jonathan Papelbon: 40 saves [UNDER]

TMac is busy broadcasting NFL football games. I happened to hear a bit on the radio over the weekend - must say he is better at that (although that really isn't saying much).

Chooch's AVG seems like a pretty obscure entry.

One prop bet I will take a close look when it comes out:

Revere for SB crown in NL

Depends on where Bourn ends up but here is a list from last sesaon:

1. Cabrera - 44 SBs
2. Bourn - 42 SBs
3. Reyes - 40 SBs
4. Victorino - 39 SBs
5. Pierre - 37 SBs
t-5th Gomez - 37 SBs
7. Altuve - 32 SBs
8. Gordon - 32 SBs
9. Ton of guys tied 30 including JRoll, Braun, Bonifacio, Stubbs, Campana, Aoki

Reyes and Victorino are in the AL. Gordon is almost certainly going to see his PT reduced this year and likely his chances. Pierre will likely have plenty of shots again but I don't seeing him being as successful.

Only significant base stealer in the AL to come over besides Revere is BJ Upton with 31 SBs.

Really only leaves Cabrera and Gomez as Revere's significant competition in the NL and I think the Phils will run a bit more this year with Sandberg on the bench instead of 'Mimbo' Pete Mackanin (who hasn't gotten another MLB job this offseason either).

Phillies: 87 wins- Over

Phillies All-Stars: 2- Over

More MLB signings by Ruben Amaro: 2- Under

Chase Utley: 135 games played- Under

Chase Utley: 18 home runs- Under

Ryan Howard: 33 home runs- Over

Ryan Howard: 115 RBI- Over

Ryan Howard: .820 OPS- Over

Carlos Ruiz: .288 batting average- Over

Michael Young: .340 on-base percentage- Under

Jimmy Rollins: 20 home runs- Under

Domonic Brown: .750 OPS- Under

Domonic Brown: 15 homers- Push

Darin Ruf: 10 homers- Over

Darin Ruf: 225 plate appearances- Over

Ben Revere: 35 steals- Way Over

Ben Revere: .298 batting average- Over

Ben Revere: 1 home run- Under

Roy Halladay: 3.00 ERA- Over

Roy Halladay: 200 innings- Over

Cliff Lee: 6.00 K/BB ratio- Over

Cliff Lee: 220 innings- Over

Cole Hamels: 18 wins- Under

Cole Hamels: 2.85 ERA- Under (Hunch)

Cole Hamels: 215 strikeouts- Under

Kyle Kendrick: 10 wins- Over

Mike Adams: 50 appearances- Over

Jonathan Papelbon: 40 saves- Over

I think someone should make a 'Beerleaguer' O/U- like, 'Number of times Howard's value will be argued: 10.5.' I volunteer to keep track.

If the Revere home run bet were actually being offered, it would definitely be at .5. You're basically betting on whether he's going to hit 1 home run this season or not.

In fact, none of the other coaches the Phils fired (Perlozzo, Gross, Mackanin) have gotten MLB jobs this offseason.

Hard to not think that other teams didn't think much of the Phils' coaching staff last year and that the overhaul this offseason was necessary.

The first problem I have with these
Over/Unders is that they don't have the requisite "1/2" after them. I hate "evens".

That said, I'll offer this meaningless response:

Phillies: 87 wins - OVER
Phillies All-Stars: 2 - OVER
More MLB signings by Ruben Amaro: 2 - UNDER
Chase Utley: 135 games played - OVER
Chase Utley: 18 home runs - OVER
Ryan Howard: 33 home runs - OVER
Ryan Howard: 115 RBI - OVER
Ryan Howard: .820 OPS - OVER
Carlos Ruiz: .288 batting average UNDER
Michael Young: .340 on-base percentage - UNDER
Jimmy Rollins: 20 home runs - UNDER
Domonic Brown: .750 OPS - UNDER
Domonic Brown: 15 homers - OVER
Darin Ruf: 10 homers - OVER
Darin Ruf: 225 plate appearances - OVER
Ben Revere: 35 steals - OVER
Ben Revere: .298 batting average - OVER
Ben Revere: 1 home run - UNDER
Roy Halladay: 3.00 ERA - OVER
Roy Halladay: 200 innings - UNDER
Cliff Lee: 6.00 K/BB ratio - OVER
Cliff Lee: 220 innings - OVER
Cole Hamels: 18 wins - UNDER
Cole Hamels: 2.85 ERA - OVER
Cole Hamels: 215 strikeouts - OVER
Kyle Kendrick: 10 wins - PUSH
Mike Adams: 50 appearances - OVER
Jonathan Papelbon: 40 saves - OVER

Mackanin was interviewed for the Red Sox managerial position just a year ago. That kinda trumps your theory that other teams didn't think much of the staff.

Corey- minor quibble but over/under lines usually have a .5 at the end of them. Obviously certain ones don't. But anyway- to play along:


Phillies: 87 wins---OVER

Phillies All-Stars: 2----OVER

More MLB signings by Ruben Amaro: 2----UNDER

Chase Utley: 135 games played----UNDER

Chase Utley: 18 home runs----OVER

Ryan Howard: 33 home runs-----OVER

Ryan Howard: 115 RBI----OVER

Ryan Howard: .820 OPS---OVER

Carlos Ruiz: .288 batting average----UNDER

Michael Young: .340 on-base percentage----OVER

Jimmy Rollins: 20 home runs--- UNDER

Domonic Brown: .750 OPS---OVER

Domonic Brown: 15 homers----OVER

Darin Ruf: 10 homers----OVER

Darin Ruf: 225 plate appearances----UNDER

Ben Revere: 35 steals-----OVER

Ben Revere: .298 batting average----UNDER

Ben Revere: 1 home run-----UNDER

Roy Halladay: 3.00 ERA----OVER

Roy Halladay: 200 innings----OVER

Cliff Lee: 6.00 K/BB ratio----OVER

Cliff Lee: 220 innings-----OVER

Cole Hamels: 18 wins---UNDER

Cole Hamels: 2.85 ERA----UNDER

Cole Hamels: 215 strikeouts---OVER

Kyle Kendrick: 10 wins---UNDER

Mike Adams: 50 appearances----OVER

Jonathan Papelbon: 40 saves----UNDER

MG: I think Revere will be the favorite for the NL crown. Everth Cabrera looks to be the starter, but he's hardly a lock to keep himself in the lineup long enough.

I would agree that Bourn will factor in heavily depending on what happens with him.

KAS, I'm not suprised the Phillies are "likely done" at this point.

Unless they can get a veteran BP arm or OF at a favorable price and years, they probably won't do much.

I suspect the guys still out there have contract requests that teh Phils don't feel are worth it.

Plus, if you're the Phillies FO, in order to plan for the future don't you have to find out what you have in the young guys in the bullpen, as well as Ruf and Brown?

Phillies: 87 wins--OVER
Phillies All-Stars: 2--PUSH
More MLB signings by Ruben Amaro: 2--UNDER
Chase Utley: 135 games played--UNDER
Chase Utley: 18 home runs--OVER
Ryan Howard: 33 home runs--OVER
Ryan Howard: 115 RBI--UNDER
Ryan Howard: .820 OPS--OVER
Carlos Ruiz: .288 batting average--UNDER
Michael Young: .340 on-base percentage--UNDER
Jimmy Rollins: 20 home runs--UNDER
Domonic Brown: .750 OPS--OVER
Domonic Brown: 15 homers--OVER
Darin Ruf: 10 homers--OVER
Darin Ruf: 225 plate appearances--OVER
Ben Revere: 35 steals--OVER
Ben Revere: .298 batting average--OVER
Ben Revere: 1 home run--UNDER
Roy Halladay: 3.00 ERA-OVER
Roy Halladay: 200 innings--UNDER
Cliff Lee: 6.00 K/BB ratio--OVER
Cliff Lee: 220 innings--OVER
Cole Hamels: 18 wins--UNDER
Cole Hamels: 2.85 ERA--UNDER
Cole Hamels: 215 strikeouts--UNDER
Kyle Kendrick: 10 wins--OVER
Mike Adams: 50 appearances--UNDER
Jonathan Papelbon: 40 saves--OVER

What kind of first half would it take for Ruf to be an All Star?

Over/unders on Beerleaguer:

Phlipper using the term "hand-wringing:" 175

clout using the word "moron," or some variation thereof: 8,501

Me saying, "This feels like a loss:" 161.5

Jack bashing Howard after a strikeout: 200

MG saying, "Cholly has no feel for when to pull a pitcher:" 778

TTI scolding MG for saying, "Cholly has no feel for when to pull a pitcher:" 778

Number of Leadership changes for Presidency of the Moronocracy (as appointed by clout): 87

Number of "Have some sack and drink some Jack" posts from Kool Earl: 10

Number of times that cut_fastball will predict a World Series title and a 100-loss season within the same 24-hour period: 35

Number of times that Fatalotti and Jack will argue with others about WAR, and clout will break out his Ben Zobrist argument: 12

Total Beerleaguer posts bashing the Phillies' tv crew: 14,387.5

awh: I'm definitely not surprised they're done in the OF, unless they had plans on starting Ruf at AAA or dumping Nix.

I would not be surprised if some of the $7M left under the luxury tax threshold is spent on a bullpen arm and the rest is left for the trade deadline.

This season is even more unknown than last year, as last year we knew Howard was a huge question mark. Regardless, here's my $0.02:

Phillies: 87 wins Push (I predicted 78 last year. Pretty close. I hope they storm to 98 and humiliate the Nats!!!!)
Phillies All-Stars: 2 Under
More MLB signings by Ruben Amaro: 2 Under (no money authorized)
Chase Utley: 135 games played Under (if he's smart)
Chase Utley: 18 home runs (Under; i'm rooting for the over, but...)
Ryan Howard: 33 home runs Push
Ryan Howard: 115 RBI Push (who knows how his off-season conditioning goes???)
Ryan Howard: .820 OPS Over (not by much)
Carlos Ruiz: .288 batting average Under (sigh...)
Michael Young: .340 on-base percentage Under (again I hate to say; I hope I'm wrong)
Jimmy Rollins: 20 home runs Under
Domonic Brown: .750 OPS Under (he's traded)
Domonic Brown: 15 homers Under (see above
Darin Ruf: 10 homers Over (I really want to believe he's the real deal!)
Darin Ruf: 225 plate appearances Over
Ben Revere: 35 steals Over (He BETTER!!)
Ben Revere: .298 batting average Push
Ben Revere: 1 home run Under (are you kidding?)
Roy Halladay: 3.00 ERA Under (God willing!!)
Roy Halladay: 200 innings Over (see above)
Cliff Lee: 6.00 K/BB ratio (over by a whisker; this is Cliff's last dominant season)
Cliff Lee: 220 innings Over
Cole Hamels: 18 wins Over (Staff ace; 20-game winner)
Cole Hamels: 2.85 ERA Under (see above)
Cole Hamels: 215 strikeouts Over
Kyle Kendrick: 10 wins Over (17 wins; 3.08 ERA, breakout season. Hell, if Moyer can win 16 with slop, KK should coast to 16 if he knows 1 bad start won't get him banished to the 'pen)
Mike Adams: 50 appearances Under (I'm wrong big-time on this one, God willing)
Jonathan Papelbon: 40 saves Over (again, by a whisker. God, I hope he stays healthy)

This was kind of fun. I really want this team to do well. The whole damn city needs another championship!!!

Cyclic: I think Ruf has already been added to the 2013 NL All-Star team... the only question is whether he'll be top overall vote-getter or merely a starter.

(In all seriousness, if Ruf has 20 HR at the break, he'll be on the All-Star team. But his chances of having even 10 HR at the break are likely slim. Rookie power is rare.)

"What kind of first half would it take for Ruf to be an All Star?"


Cyclic, for starters, he'd have to win the job in LF outright - no platoon.

If he does that, because of lack of name recognition and a silly voting process, he'd probably have to put up these types of numbers or better:

.285/.345/.500, 15 HR, 60 RBI


In the minors, Ruf hit one HR every 20.6 PA, including his year in Clearwater befor his 2012 power surge. In 2012 at Reading, he hit a HR once every 15.2 PA.

If he gets 300 PA by the AS break, using hi MiL averages he could get to 20 HR. If he continues at a 15.2 pace, he'll have 19 HR by the AS break.

In either case he probably doesn't get voted in, and would have to be selected as a backup.

Nice dream, eh?

Over/unders on Beerleaguer:

Phlipper using the term "hand-wringing:" 175 OVER

clout using the word "moron," or some variation thereof: 8,501 OVER

Me saying, "This feels like a loss:" 161.5 OVER

Jack bashing Howard after a strikeout: 200 OVER

MG saying, "Cholly has no feel for when to pull a pitcher:" 778 PUSH

TTI scolding MG for saying, "Cholly has no feel for when to pull a pitcher:" 778 OVER

Number of Leadership changes for Presidency of the Moronocracy (as appointed by clout): 87 UNDER

Number of "Have some sack and drink some Jack" posts from Kool Earl: 10 UNDER

Number of times that cut_fastball will predict a World Series title and a 100-loss season within the same 24-hour period: 35 WAY OVER

Number of times that Fatalotti and Jack will argue with others about WAR, and clout will break out his Ben Zobrist argument: 12 UNDER

Total Beerleaguer posts bashing the Phillies' tv crew: 14,387.5 OVER

"Number of "Have some sack and drink some Jack" posts from Kool Earl: 10"


bap, I believe the correct phrase is:

"Drink some Jack and grow a sack."

Total Beerleaguer posts bashing the Phillies' tv crew: 14,387.5

OVER, WAY OVER, as it should be.

Never found myself bashing the TV crew. I really don't rely on them too much.

How about, number of times King of the Bop gets steamed?

Is that still a thing?

Wow, the first post proposing Ruf as an All-Star has arrived.

I'm surprised it took until January 7th.

I'll take the under on BAP saying "this game feels like a loss" at 161.5.

There will be a game when all our best position players are hurt or getting the day off, Kendrick is starting, and the bullpen is shot.

For that one game, BAP will declare that it feels like a win.

If Ruf has 20 HR's by the break, does he enter the conversation in a possible stanton trade? The fish could move him back to 1B.

    Over/unders on Beerleaguer:

    ..Number of "Have some sack and drink some Jack" posts from Kool Earl: 10

    Number of times that cut_fastball will predict a World Series title and a 100-loss season within the same 24-hour period: 35....Posted by: bay_area_phan | Monday, January 07, 2013 at 02:41 PM

Two minor quibbles here. I believe that Kool Earl states:

Show some sack and drink some Jack.

Which is wrong? gross? both? On several levels.

Number of times that cut_fastball will predict a World Series title and a 100-loss season within the same 24-hour period: 35

Actually, the number here approaches infinity, as my mind never stops praying for the huge, uber-dominant miracle season, ('id") and my ego (the organized, realistic part); my the super-ego (the critical and moralizing role part [courtesy, Wiki]) work overtime keeping things in order.

Heck, I'm completely exhausted after the first game. Not unlike many, many, many Phillies phans.

Cliff Lee's 10 IP start vs SFG was the first time a team has lost a game where their starter completed 10IP since June 16, 1995 when the A's lost 3-1 after Todd Stottlemyre struck out 15 in 10IP.

Coincidently, that very same day, the Mets lost after Bobby Jones gave up 2 runs in his 10IP.

If you narrow the search down to 10IP and 0 runs allowed, it goes back to 1994 when Bret Saberhagen's Mets lost after his 10 scoreless.

"...unless they had plans on starting Ruf at AAA or dumping Nix."


I'm starting to believe they planned neither.

I'm starting to think the FO thinks really "have something" in Ruf. He mashed at Reading, mashed in Philly, and mashed in Venezuela. They probably saw enough to confirm for themselves, so they told him to shut it down early and go home and get some rest. Does anything else make sense?

I think they view Nix as a backup and a limited platoon partner, and have no intention of giving him 400 PA in LFa against RHP.

Also, as I posted a couple of threads ago, I think they might be planning a Brownberry platoon in RF, because if Brown improves about 10% against RHP, you're looking at a line of .270/.360/.425.

If you compare that to Swisher's lifetime line of .250/.342/.478 vs. RHP, it's close enough that they probably declined to spend the money.

And as I posted previously, Swisher is a .270/.402/.441 hitter against LHP. Mayberry mashes LHP to the tune of .284/.328/.547.

So, while you'd probably prefer Swish's line against LHP because of the vastly superior OBP, Mayberry is a pretty good, inexpensive alternative to that, with more pop in his bat.

Against RHP - the vast majority of the AB - a 10% improvement from Brown (which may be possible based on his MiL numbers) would yield a higher OBP than Swish's numbers.


While rebounds from H/H/U are critical to this team competing this coming season, what happens with Darin Ruf may very well be the next most important development in ST. IF he can continue to mash and wins the job, it fills a huge hole, and will go a long way toward solving other holes on the roster.

It also gives them another competent backup at 1B to spell Howie, one that may very well be able to hit RHP if Howie can't go that day.

Over/Under
How many times will BeerLeauger say that the bullpen has "Baked the Poodle" - 45

re: NL SB champ

I just noticed Everth Cabrera stole 19 bases in September alone, holy crap. Thats roughly a 120 pace.

Charlie would like nothing more than to have Ruf and Brown lock down the corner OF spots. That would put an incredible amount of pressure on Revere to man CF between two below-average defenders.

"That would put an incredible amount of pressure on Revere to man CF between two below-average defenders."

KAS, that's why I think RFD gets some starts in RF, with Nix getting a few in LF.

They're both better defenders, and would take some of the pressure of Revere, and maybe keeoing him from blowing a gasket.

"...to have Ruf and Brown lock down the corner OF spots."

Can't say this would break my heart either. Having either of them really step up would be a huge boost for the team.

Doubtful about either of them doing so, but it's still early enough to dream.

Not sure if the FO feels they really have something in Ruf, but I think awh has hit it on the head about how they are thinking of the OF generally and why they declined to chase after Swisher.

I can't resist taking a stab at this:

Phillies: 87 wins :: UNDER

Phillies All-Stars: 2 :: OVER

More MLB signings by Ruben Amaro: 2 :: UNDER (I'm assuming that this means prior to spring training)

Chase Utley: 135 games played :: OVER

Chase Utley: 18 home runs :: OVER

Ryan Howard: 33 home runs :: UNDER

Ryan Howard: 115 RBI :: OVER

Ryan Howard: .820 OPS :: UNDER

Carlos Ruiz: .288 batting average :: UNDER

Michael Young: .340 on-base percentage :: OVER

Jimmy Rollins: 20 home runs :: UNDER

Domonic Brown: .750 OPS :: OVER

Domonic Brown: 15 homers :: UNDER

Darin Ruf: 10 homers :: OVER

Darin Ruf: 225 plate appearances :: OVER

Ben Revere: 35 steals :: OVER

Ben Revere: .298 batting average :: UNDER

Ben Revere: 1 home run :: UNDER

Roy Halladay: 3.00 ERA :: OVER

Roy Halladay: 200 innings :: OVER

Cliff Lee: 6.00 K/BB ratio :: OVER

Cliff Lee: 220 innings :: OVER

Cole Hamels: 18 wins :: UNDER

Cole Hamels: 2.85 ERA :: OVER

Cole Hamels: 215 strikeouts :: OVER

Kyle Kendrick: 10 wins :: OVER

Mike Adams: 50 appearances :: UNDER

Jonathan Papelbon: 40 saves :: UNDER

d'Arby Myers signed by Oakland. A longshot to be anything of value, but he had his moments. Put together a good stretch to finish at .305/.333/.437 and 12 steals in 200 PA as a 23yr old.

Assuming RAJ's comments about the offseason being a wrap are honest, can we start giving out grades yet? I'd say C+. No truly bad moves, but no coups and honestly not much in the way of overall improvement to the roster. Still not at all sold on Worley -> Revere either. The farm system does seem to be inching closer to respectability which, to the extent that you fault Rube for bad development/drafting in the past, should be credited to him in equal measure. I still think Swisher would have been a quality pickup; his price ended up being very reasonable.


Are you looking for a quality website to discover and discuss phillies prospects? Then look no further than the #1 site on phillies prospects: Phuturephillies.com We even have a poll to rank our top prospects. Vote today!

http://phuturephillies.com/2013/01/06/reader-top-30-1-4/

Bring back James!

Then we'll talk.

Amaro's comments are regarding just the OF, not the entire roster. There may be moves to come.

MattWinks, I have news for you:


The site has gone by the wayside and I don't visit it anymore,

In fact, I don't think many here do either, because it's (almost) never discussed, except in the context that NEPP just provided. Sorry, but you guys have work to do. A lot.

I agree with awh - the nice thing about using a straight double-platoon OF is that it results in only one poor defensive outfielder in each alignment:

vs. LHP: Ruf/Revere/Mayberry
vs. RHP: Nix/Revere/Brown

It does leave the bench only RH hitters when facing a RH starter, though (Ruf, Mayberry, Frandsen, Galvis, Kratz/Quintero).

Col. Tom - Galvis switch hits, but point taken.

Sil - thanks for the correction. Though in truth, Freddy stands at each side of the plate with a bat. "Hits" might be stretching it.

If Amaro is to believe, I give the off-season a B-minus.

I'm not about to move the goalposts. I thought they needed an offensive upgrade at two OF positions- I wanted Pagan and Torii Hunter. They ended up with Revere and nobody, giving up an asset from the major league team to do it.

I like Revere a lot, think he adds good things to this team and has upside that not many here want to recognize. But he isn't a big asset on offense, and his acquisition in my mind necessitated a move at the corner OF to assure the offense wouldn't be a complete liability. That didn't happen.

Really like the Young move, and I think he will bounce back from last year and help the team offensively. I also think the Lannan signing is a good value signing that will give the team a solid #5 for a much cheaper price than a lot of mediocre pitchers cost this offseason.

Bottom line, I don't like relying on one or two of Mayberry, Brown, Ruf and Nix to be good or very good offensively. It's incredibly risky. I understand that they believe they can get some value from both positions, but counting on two lottery tickets to hit when there are a lot of question marks on offense already, borders on irresponsibility as an executive.

However, I like that they did not hand out big contracts in this mediocre FA class and tie themselves down simply because they have the money. I like every player that was brought in (especially Adams and Revere). And I like that if they are in the hunt come July, the money and pieces are there to make a move to improve the team.

I'm looking forward to seeing the product on the field.

I'm higher (foolishly) than most on both Ruf and Brown, but I completely agree with this...

~

"However, I like that they did not hand out big contracts in this mediocre FA class and tie themselves down simply because they have the money. I like every player that was brought in (especially Adams and Revere). And I like that if they are in the hunt come July, the money and pieces are there to make a move to improve the team.

I'm looking forward to seeing the product on the field.

Posted by: Iceman | Monday, January 07, 2013 at 05:08 PM"

"...but counting on two lottery tickets to hit when there are a lot of question marks on offense already, borders on irresponsibility as an executive."


Iceman, I get your point - to a point.

Here's why: As I wrote above and before, a Mayberry/Brown platoon gets you nearly what Swisher gives you (and if you're the FO you love it because it's a fraction of the cost). That has to be, IMHO, what they were looking at.

So, how much of that platoon is really a lottery ticket?

At this point we know what we're going to get from Mayberry vs. LHP.
I think Brown's .243/.324/.412 vs. RHP can be improved upon, and I think you do also.
At this point we also know what Nix has to contribute.

Disagree?

So, if those three are limited in their roles, I wouldn't necessarily characterize them as lottery tickets.


With Ruf, however, you have an excellent point. He's a lottery ticket. If he fizzles they may only squeek into the playoffs. If he's the real thing...

We'll know soon enough whether he can hack it in The Show.

Brown will likely play everyday in RF. I do think he will be a bit better but .750 OPS is really a floor for him. If his offensive production isn't better than that this year, I don't think he has a future as a full-time player at the MLB level.

Never going to win a job because of his defensive ability and he needs to hit for at least a moderate average this year (.260 or better) because he likely isn't going to be a 20+ HR guy annually either.

If you forced me into a bet, I would take the UNDER on his .750 OPS especially if he has to face his share of LHP pitching this year but that isn't a bet I would make either way if I had a choice.

MG, agree with most everything you say about Brown,which is why I think they may platoon him with RFD.

Look at it this way:

RFD has an .875 OPS vs. LHP. Does it make any sense to keep that on the bench when they're trying to get back to the playoffs? Do you think Brown has a chance to match that? Does it make sense to sit Mayberry superior defense when a LHP is on the mound? What for, to let Brown "develop"?

That's why I think they're looking real hard at a platoon in RF.

Other over/under:

- Phils win 14 games in April (play 27 so basically a winning record)

- Utley first official day off is Mon., May 6th

- Phils OF HRs: 40 (Last year they had 52)

- Phils HRs: 150 (Last year they had 158)

Can't we go back to the offseason 2011-12 level of RFD optimism?

I mean, what if he can put together a full season of 2nd half 2011?

Something like .305/.371/.619/.990

Sounds reasonable, right?

Least amount of OF HRs any team got out of there OF last year was the Giants (37).

There were 4 teams (Tigers, Royals, Red Sox, Giants). Twins were 25th with 48.

I expect the Phils will be in the bottom 5 in MLB this year and likely bottom 3 with Brown/Revere in the lineup everyday.

MG: I had mentioned Michael Saunders previously as a similar comp to Dom Brown. Each struggled initially upon making it to the majors. This past year, Saunders put up this line:

247/306/432, 738 OPS, 19 HR, 57 RBI, 21 SB

Would you be okay with that season from Brown or would it mean he has no future as a full-time player?

4 teams with 40 or less HRs.

Re: Brown vs. Saunders

Probably shouldn't have included SBs... Brown doesn't have 20 steal potential, maybe 10-15 at most.

awh- if they platoon Mayberry with Brown, I retract what I said. I just think they plan to play Brown full-time.

I'm split on the issue. Platooning those two would optimize production at that position and would probably give more than adequate offensive production. At the same time, I acknowledge that Brown has not been given a prolonged 'fair shot' at showing what he can do, so if they make him full-time, I understand that decision.

What I don't understand is, if that is the plan, using a Mayberry/Nix platoon for LF, which is a scenario that would have Nix getting 60-70% of the ABs. It's nauseating to think about. Perhaps they do have bigger plans for Ruf. I'd rather be surprised by that, than see Nix getting any fair share of playing time in the OF.

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