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Friday, January 18, 2013

Comments

Good.

I would love to see Bastardo put together a full season this year where he pitches well for 6 months. He has the stuff to do.

Scene: Visiting bullpen at CBP. Some mediocrity in a particularly rancid looking gray uniform trimmed in orange and blue gets up to start stretching. A dude in a maroon Phillies hat, you know the hideous ones from the late 70's, starts up with the taunts. "You're League Average". "You're Replacement Level". "Dude You Should Wear #98. All Fungible Relievers Should Wear Their ERA+ on their back like a Scarlet Letter. Now trembling, the hapless two million dollar a year loser starts to long toss. And the dude in the maroon Phillies hat starts to chant, "FUNGIBLE! FUNGIBLE! FUNGIBLE!. He's relentless. FUNGIBLE! FUNGIBLE! FUNGIBLE! Soon others join in and the din is earsplitting. FUNGIBLE!FUNGIBLE! FUNGIBLE! Shattered the spineless worm sits down sobbing. Three weeks later his whole world changes and he's rocked to the core when the inevitable happens. The Phillies, in a last ditch deadline gamble, trade 2 C level prospects and a PTBNL for our protagonist. Curses! His thoughts turn immediately to the ghoul in the maroon hat. He starts to tremble. He starts to quiver and quake. And then like a tiny ray of sunshine, at first dim and then growing ever stronger he receives a revelation. It's my contract year! Rube is sure to give me 3 years/18 million. So that's what fungible means. I guess I should have looked it up. Doesn't sound so bad now. Fade to black....

MG, yes.

Would you pay almost $14 million for Hunter Pence? Crazy salaries for corner outfield this winter ...

JW, NO, NO and... NO!

The Pence number is justified because the Giants have won two championships in the last three years. End of discussion.

Marc Hulet gave his top prospect list of the Braves, and it actually is a pretty weak list. 90% of that is because they have a great crop of graduated prospects all very young in the majors already, but still - nice to see them slow down a bit. Feels like they just constantly have a full cupbaord, hopefully this can be the beginning of lapse of talent for them.

Iceman, my comment about the Giants recent success wasn't meant to support that SF can do no wrong.

I was simply trying to point out how ironic it is that those of us who support a team with this "all-in/window of opportunity" mindset bemoan the signings of another team who has been extremely successful without the same expectations on them. Basically, with the position that RAJ has put our beloved hometown 9 in, it's a bit of the "throwing stones while living in a glass house" vein, except that our glass house isn't nearly as impressive.

Willard, you have to understand that Pence ran over Iceman's puppy dog several years back (and ate it on a liscio roll afterwards, saying "good kill; let's eat). Naturally, poor Iceman can't discuss our ex-right fielder or any move concerning him rationally.

BTW, had we retained Pence and given him the contract the Giants gave him, we'd still have had enough in the tank to get Mike Adams, still could have traded Worley for Revere, and signed a fifth starter without going over the luxury tax. We could then have had the luxury of trying both Brown and Ruf in LF, wouldn't be talking about a last-ditch signing of Scott Hairston, and (if Brown and Ruf both looked good) would have been able to let Pence walk at the end of 2013. We wouldn't have been able to acquire Michael Young, though. So, unless you think that Young + Brown/Ruf/Nixberry is better than Fransden/Galvis + Pence, dumping Pence for a bag of balls and then failing to use the saved money for anything substantial looks pretty damn dumb (except to Iceman, of course).

WP- the front-office built teams from 2009-2011 that were all better than either of the Giants' championship teams the last three years. That's the "position" that "RAJ put us in."

The only irony here is that people here can acknowledge that, and yet fail to acknowledge what the playoffs are and how little they vindicate the moves a GM has or hasn't made.

AT- Joseph is not 'a bag of balls.'

And Sabean just paid $14 million to a guy that had a 0.1 (BR) WAR last year in 160 games. Only someone like you, who has said some of the dumbest things I've ever read on the Internet (no small feat), would think that is a good idea.

Awesome, donc. I don't think, based on the picture you paint, that there are many guys like that who can spell fungible, let alone pronounce it correctly.

The mistake, of course, was trading for Pence in the first place- an unnecessary move that was championed by AT and others who were convinced that a team on a 100-win pace needed another bat. The support for the move was so resounding, by the time it happened, they even talked me into thinking it was a good idea, despite my initial reaction, which was, "What's the point?"

It's the one time in the history of BL I had wished I'd have listened to Jack. It's the type of move that has set the franchise back a few years (that phrase is used a lot, but in this case, it is actually true). Thankfully, we aren't paying him $14 million this year for production that I'd wager we'll come close to getting out of Brown and/or Ruf.

"the front-office built teams from 2009-2011 that were all better than either of the Giants' championship teams the last three years. That's the "position" that "RAJ put us in."

Interesting take, except that over that exact same 3 year span, head-to-head, including those crapshoot playoffs, the Phillies are 11-14 even though they were "better than either of the Giants' championship teams."

Iceman, you have to stick to your guns. Even after Pence played like Matt Kemp during his first year here, I still held that the initial trade was a mistake, which was met with much resistance.

Trading for Pence was just a bad idea.

danomyte: I happen to love mushrooms.

Seriously, if nothing else, BL is good for the vocabulary. I love some of the words that are used fairly regularly on BL that you virtually never hear or see anywhere else. Fungible is my favorite, but other words used here to give the illusion of intelligence are conflate, posit and handwringing. I'm not even sure if the last one is one or two words. I just never see it anywhere else and, who am I kidding, Phlipper just about invented that one himself. Guess it's pretty boring up on the Ben all by your lonesome.

donc, I think I've used obsequious, intransigent and convivial before. Some good words, there.

WP, bad analysis.

You can really only compare the teams in each year separately, because there were large changes in personnel from year to year.

What was the record in each year of the two teams head-to-head?

"donc, I think I've used obsequious, intransigent and convivial before. Some good words, there"

Easy for you to say Fats.

BTW, I went back and checked the archives, couldn't find anything on this transaction, and I don't remeber seeing it mentioned here:

On Dec. 6, 2012 th ePhils claimed pitcher Mauricio Robles from the Mariners:

http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=500909#gameType='R'&sectionType=career&statType=2&season=2012&level='ALL'


Could someone please explain this move to me?

Jejune. Now there's a word for you. Aptly describes many posters here too. I vow to use jejune in every day conversation. People will think I'm smuckin fart.

Phlipper just likes to be contumacious, with his penchant for remonstrating the more obstreperous posters who sedulously excoriate management's adjudicatures.

No fair BAP. We're only using English here. BTW, I do love those contumacious mushrooms. Used to do them a lot back in the late 70's. Pretty sure that's how I came to posses one of those hideous maroon Phillies hats.

rolo, it's precisely those large changes in personnel that are the premise of the discussion, though, no?

year to year:
2010: 4-8 (2-4 each in reg season and playoffs)
2011: 4-3
2012: 3-3

Iceman's assertion was that RAJ built the better of the two teams over that time frame and that the playoffs are a crap shoot. While overall W/L is eight games in the Phillies favor (particularly skewed by the 102 win season in 2011), head-to-head the numbers don't bear that out in either the regular or postseason. Both teams had their shot at the crap shoot 2 of those 3 years. The Giants happened to capitalize on both of theirs.

I certainly don't argue that the playoffs are, indeed, a crap shoot. You have to build a team that can get in, and both teams have been pretty good of doing that recently.

What I am saying is that for us, as fans of a team who believe that we are on the tail end of our current "golden age," isn't it a bit hypocritical of us to criticize the value of contracts being handed out by a team who has actually achieved the goal shared by both teams on a more consistent basis?

er possess.

obstreperous....used that one here once, too. One of my favorite words. Along with ignominious.

WP, br.com swz the Phils were 3 - 3 in 2010 in the reg season vs Giants.

well, i know where roy halladay is right now.
he just bought a restored, white 1967 corvette stingray convertible for $75K at the barrett-jackson classic car auction in scottsdale, arizona. it's live until midnight on the speed channel. tomorrow too.

"...isn't it a bit hypocritical of us to criticize the value of contracts being handed out by a team who has actually achieved the goal shared by both teams on a more consistent basis? "

WP, actually, no. You see, your premise is false.

When analyzing a contract, one has to look at the player's individual performance and the contract only. Everything else is superfluous.

A bad contract is a bad contract, or a good one a good one - regardless of whether the team surrounding and including the player wins or loses.

Salaries dont matter and teams dont have budgets so its silly to even discuss Pence's contract like that.

Here's an interesting comparison:

Jacoby Ellbury has 5 yrs. service time and just got $9MM from the Bosox to avoid arbitration.

Hunter Pence also has 5 yrs. service time and just got $13.8MM from the Giants to avoid arbitration.

Who would you rather have on your team:

Ellsbury at $9MM or Pence at $13.8MM?

Superfluous! Ten cents for awh.

This thread is jejune. I'm outta here like a Joe Savery fastball.

The Date: All Star weekend, 2013.

The Event: Weekend-long party at my house.

The Occasion: To celebrate that the Phillies are paying only $500,000 for their .230 hitting, .700 OPS right fielder, when they might otherwise have been forced to fork out $13.8M for a .275, .790 OPS right fielder.

You are all invited.

Since when did bap think Ruf could play RF?

awh/rolo took the words right out of my...hands.

It's the same concept that I was talking about earlier in the week about Washington. Analyzing individual contracts in the context of how successful the team is as a whole is ridiculous. Each contract should be analyzed based on a player's value vs. what he got paid. That's it. Especially one year contracts.

The only other factor I can see as relevant is when a team has no other options, and the drop-off from FA Player A to Replacement Player B is so dramatic that the team is over a barrel. Ironically, Pence's case is sort of an example of this- SF has little choice but to retain him because they're out of other options. Rollins had the Phils in a similar position last season.

The rub with Pence is that he is overrated to begin with, and could be replaced a lot easier than the Giants apparently think. He hit 24 HRs last year and yet had a 103 OPS+ and a 0.1 WAR. You have to be virtually useless in every other facet of the game to have that many HRs coupled with low values in the other two categories. It's kind of mind-boggling.

Either way, Pence is not worth $14 million (he might not even be worth half that), and I'm not sure what in the hell the Phils' performance in the playoffs since 2009 has to do with it.

Ice~ You agreed with a couple weeks back when I said RF is broken. I believe you said "he botched it".

Whether trading for Pence in the first place was a bad idea (for those who think so), or not, does not make up for the current RF situation.

AT~ We could have still made all moves you outlined and still signed Young. Yeah, we'd would've gone over the cap, but even @ 6 million, the tax would've been around 1 million, which is the amount they'll pay Rodrigo Lopez (waste) if he makes the club). Point is they would've have to pay that much of a tax. They just don't want to pay one at all. And RAJ's still looking for an outfielder. Like I've always say "If it ain't broke, dont break it".

Iceman: I know you're already up to your eyeballs in Beerleaguer bets, but I'm going to propose another one for you.

If Pence's 2013 OPS+ ends up closer to 103 than to his career OPS+ of 117, you win. If it ends up closer to 117 than 103, I win.

"the front-office built teams from 2009-2011 that were all better than either of the Giants' championship teams the last three years. That's the "position" that "RAJ put us in." - Iceman's 2:51 post
--------------------------------------

"Analyzing individual contracts in the context of how successful the team is as a whole is ridiculous."

and

"and I'm not sure what in the hell the Phils' performance in the playoffs since 2009 has to do with it." - Iceman's 4:25 post
-------------------------

Are there 2 different guys posting a "Iceman" today?

2009 was the time frame YOU called out.

Anyway, it's all pointless jibber-jabber to pass an uneventful day anyway, when I especially concede that I agree that Pence at $14M is a lofty price. Personally, I would have never offered him arb to begin with. But they did, and this was their next move. It happened. Was only pointing out that it's ironic for us to criticize how SF chooses to build their team. That doesn't even mean that I'm above partaking in the same ironic criticism.

Anyway, put me down for a cheeseball at BAP's Value Village bash.

DPat- yeah, I did mean that he broke it making the trade in the first place. At the very least we'd know where we are with Brown by now. Instead, we're back at square one with nothing to show for it.

Iceman is right on this point. If the Phillies never traded for Pence, they still would've made the playoffs as the #1 seed and could've had the same result. Also the farm wouldn't be as depleted, unless of course those prospects were used to land another OF last year, say Justin Upton. All in all, that was an extremely short sighted move that was championed by the same folks (AT, DPat, aksmith) who now criticize the FO's every move.

RedBurb: You'll get no disagreement here that the trade for Pence looks terrible in hindsight. But it doesn't follow that trading him away was the right thing to do. In fact, part of the reason why the trade for him looks so bad is because we turned around and traded him away, leaving ourselves with huge uncertainty at the RF position this year.

"It's the one time in the history of BL I had wished I'd have listened to Jack."

If I could get Clout to say that, my work on Beerleaguer would be complete. I would walk back into the internet cornfield from which I came and slowly fade from sight, into the late afternoon sunset.

People who think the Pence trade was a bad idea must believe that Ben Francisco is a legitimate starter on a championship team. So if we have the equivalent of Ben Francisco in RF, then they should be perfectly happy.

Problem solved.

awh/rolo: "You can really only compare the teams in each year separately, because there were large changes in personnel from year to year.

What was the record in each year of the two teams head-to-head?"

Actually this is really terrible analysis as well. As anyone who's watched the Phillies play the Pirates and Astros the last few years can tell you, head-to-head records between teams don't come close to telling the story of which team is better, either.

I would also like to see Bastardo have a good full year. I do believe he has the stuff. Since the first time been called up i could tell. Just needs a touch more control and more consistency. I also question his durability.

Mick-O, the Phillies were on a 102 win pace the moment before Pence first played a game as a Phillie. They ended up with 201 wins that year.

That 2011 team's strength was, far and away, it's amazing pitching. Getting another bat was, as every expected it to be, pointless. That team was going as far as Doc, Lee and Hamels took it.

And wouldn't you know, they likely lost that series because Cliff Lee was handed a 4-0 lead in game 2, a game that he was specifically brought here to win, and gave it away.

Trading for Pence was unnecessary, and it was made egregious by the fact that we traded our best hitting AND pitching prospects at the time for him. It was a really poor trade on Amaro's part. He depleted the farm system, and didn't even get fair, at-the-time, value for the picks he gave up.

rolo: Robles has no command at all and his career minor league K/BB is terrible, but he throws mid-90s so he should have no problem being a stud, based on prevailing BL logic.

We need to have an NEPP Rule: All contracts are too much, all ballplayers are overpaid.

When a thread line attacks a player's contract a poster can post: "NEPP Rule!" and that means we all agree that ballplayers are overpaid and should change the subject instead of the same old, same old repeated ad infinitum.

They ended up with 201 wins that year.
-----------------------------------------------------

Typo of the year.

Bourn was the guy to get at the trade deadline. Would have cost less and would have helped the Phils more the last year and half.

Pence trade wasn't Amaro's worst move (Howard contract is #1, Lee trade to Seattle is #2) but I would put it at #3.

First time I've tuned into WIP in a month or so but it was just in time for an interview with Cody Asche. Kid sounds like he's got a good head on his shoulders.

And I like him more after discovering his twitter handle (@cody_smasche).

Fatalotti: I don't disagree with any of that.

But, if you're telling me that if the Phillies lost with Ben Francisco then everyone would have crowed "Well it's a good idea we didn't trade for another bat. I support Amaro for not making any moves. It was our pitching that let us down. We may have not won the World Series, but I'm glad we have these prospects. Swapping out Ben Francisco wouldn't have made any difference," then I believe you're mistaken.

Mick: By the time we traded for Pence, Dom had pretty much replaced Francisco.

"People who think the Pence trade was a bad idea must believe that Ben Francisco is a legitimate starter on a championship team."

Gregor Blanco started every game in LF for the Giants last year and they won the championship. I'm not sure what the point is here. The team was good enough to overcome a weak RF.

Ironically, Ben Francisco did more in one AB in the 2011 NLDS than Pence did in five games.

Mick, you could have always felt that the Phillies should have traded for a bat to replace Dom in RF, if you wanted. But what they traded for what they got was the awful part.

They didn't need to trade for a corner OF, but if they had traded for and gotten Ryan Braun, that would have been a lot different than Pence.

*started every game in the playoffs, that is

MG - The Pence trade was the most short sighted, win now move. That clearly is the worst move Amaro has made during his tenure.

Pence was the guy to get, not Bourn, because Pence was A) a RH power bat, and B) under team control for a full season more than Bourn. (Also, he was not represented by Boras, which I'm sure factored into Rube's decision). The Pence trade would have been a good one had we kept him until he hit FA; we'd have been able to have one corner of the outfield secure while we figured out what to do with Brown/Mayberry (and now Ruf). The trade, however, looks pretty bad now because we dumped him after what amounted to a single season, to save salary after the Hamels extension--which in turn should have been done long ago in place of the Howard extension. I was against dumping him at the time because I didn't believe anyone better could be had for similar money (actually, the much better Swisher signed for only a little more than Pence got in arb, but the team was never interested in him). Anyone who won't admit that still having Pence would solve a good deal of our current problems (need for a RH power bat and a proven outfielder) is either delusional or Iceman.

And, BTW, hinting that Pence had to go based on his playoff performance in 2011 is equivalent to the Nats' idiotic idea that they needed to spend major moolah on Soriano after one bad outing from Storen in the 2012 playoffs. I'm pretty sure that if you dug into the archives, you'd find Iceman defending Howard tooth and nail from any criticisms of his playoff performances (which represent a much larger sample size than Pence's).

All of MG's three Amaro 'blunders' are bad, but I would not rank them in that order at all. The Lee trade is overrated as far as its long-term impact on the team. The Pence trade gutted what was left of the farm system, netted the team one year of Pence's uneven play and Tommy Joseph (not a bad player but not close to what they gave up for him). It's also delayed Brown's development by 1.5 seasons, and if he'd have had a chance to play in that time, the FO could have gone after a corner OF without hesitation this winter if he'd have washed out.

Howard's contract...eh, whatever. I understand some people think it's hopeless but he does have four years left to give the team something of real value. It might be #1 by the time Amaro is fired, but right now it isn't.

The power rankings right now are 1) Pence Trade----HUGE GAP----2) Howard deal, 3) Lee trade. Hon Mention: Papelbon deal.

AT- I didn't hint that's why he should go. I simply stated facts about his performance, which was terrible. Stop making things up.

Random thought: saw Livan Herndandez's name on FG, and I was looking back his 1997 playoff performance. My question; how the hell did he win WS MVP. He started two games, pitched 5.2 innings in one, 8 in the other, gave up 3 ER in the first and 5 ER in the second.

How did that win WS MVP?

clout told me the Phillies dont have a budget...which means Rube is just a bad GM as he's made no effort to fill the massive holes in our lineup in RF & LF. The double-platoon route should really work out.

Fatal: I had similar thoughts. It must have been an emotional vote, I remember thinking at the time he was utterly unhittable, obviously without the box score in front of me.

AT - Pence was absolutely not the right move to make at the time. It was buying a premium for what? Did it increase the Phillies chances at a WS title? Obviously not because the playoffs are a crapshoot and their playoff odds were extremely high when they acquired Pence.

Depleting the farm at that time instead of waiting it out cost the Phillies dearly. Who knows, but they could've used those same prospects to land a better OF in the offseason before the 2012 season.

It was a move that set the organization back. There was a strong contingent here on BL that felt the move was unnecessary and they've been proven right every step of the way.

Fairly interesting perspective.

I probably don't agree with it, but he makes some good points.

http://www.thegoodphight.com/2013/1/18/3887160/maybe-michael-bourn-is-worth-the-draft-pick-for-the-phillies

On yesterday's thread, TTI was also pushing the idea of signing Bourn to a one-year deal. Not sure if I agree, but there's a lot to like about the idea. It would give us a true leadoff hitter, put to rest the dumb idea of batting Revere leadoff, & allow Cholly to finally move Rollins to a spot in the order that is better suited to his talents. It would also give us ridiculous defensive range in the OF (with Revere, presumably, moving to RF). And it would enable us to build an offense around 3 players with truly elite base-stealing ability.

Downside: yet another hitter who has very little power; yet another LH hitter who can't hit LHP; and yet another year delaying the development of either Ruf or Brown (and, potentially, both).

Did it increase the Phillies chances at a WS title? Obviously not because the playoffs are a crapshoot and their playoff odds were extremely high when they acquired Pence.

Faulty logic. It DID increase their chances at the crapshoot, heck the better players you have, the better your chances. Of course you are talking about maybe 2% with a guy like Pence. Prime Bonds would probably increase the chance 2 to 3 times as much. Rube just paid way, way too much.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think there were a couple of guys in the last decade or so who had it written into their contracts that they could not be offered arbitration (Beltran's big contract and Iguchi when the Phillies had him are the two that I think had this clause). Is that still allowed? I would think that if Bourn or Lohse were to take a 1-year deal, they would certainly want something like that written into their contracts.

Fatti, I don't agree with that perpsective either.

BTW, even if they did sign Bourn, why would they play him in CF and Bourn in RF, especially if, as some have said, Revere might be the fastest guy in MLB and has the most range? Why would it not make sense to play Bourn in RF where his better arm plays better than Revere's? Seniority? Bourn's ego?

Just a thought.

Bourn would be a nice addition. Dont see happening. Although stranger things have happened.

Pence trade was horrible in my opinion because of Santana, it was just bad with Singleton and Cosart. However, Pence was controllable for 2.5 seasons (problem for me was that he was not under a favorable contract for those seasons) so that had significant value. Pence was a Werth replacement and a near all star RF.

Phillies gave up a trapped 1B (my personal opinion was that his walk rate meant he would be an excellent hitter) with unrealized power, and a young starter who many projected to be a top bullpen guy. I'd have preferred an option that could have played 3B/RF and cost less in prospects.

Turns out Pence was great in 2011 and turned out not to be able to be a go to guy in the lineup with Utley and Howard out. Brown's inconsistency and injuries have really made it difficult to predict his value in the majors.

If we won the WS no one here would of been complaining about the Pence trade. Well maybe that guy he complains about everything.

"Well maybe that guy he complains about everything."

You're gonna have to be a lot more specific. On BL, that's like saying "Well maybe that one guy, he breathes oxygen."

I had "posited" that if Bourn's price fell to 10 mill/yr, then the Phils should sign him. This would create a nice speed/power combo in the lineup. The defense would be greatly improved. Nix goes away and Ruf/Brown platoon/fight it out for the other corner. I think, if the Phils make the playoffs, Bourn re-signs here w/ a nice raise.

I forgot RFD, who can compete in the "mix" above and have a reserve role as an option off the bench. To me, it would be any combination of Ruf/Brown/Mayberry vying for two spots.

The Pence trade is by far the worst move in Amaro's tenure as GM. The Lee trade isn't even close.

It's nice to know that Singleton, Cosart and Santana will all become stars.

I was on BL back in 2008 when Jason Donald, Lou Marson and Carlos Carrasco were all stardom-bound. If there was a word of skepticism about that, you wouldn't find it on BL.

Even though we don't know how the youngsters will turn out, the Pence trade looks pretty bad. But you also have to consider what the situation was when the deal was made: Dom Brown & Ben Francisco had flopped badly both on offense and defense. The Phils were 5 games ahead of Atlanta, who had a pretty good team. The upgrade to Pence was huge and, on paper, would make them more formidable in the post-season. Pence proceeded to post a .954 OPS, about .250 more than Francisco/Brown and the Phils went on a 14-3 spurt after he trade.

Awwww, c'mon clout.

The BL talent scouts who post here are never wrong.

On Pence trade - have to remember this awful move was in part necessitated by 1) not locking up Werth early, and losing him to a ridiculous contract by the nats, and 2) the injury to Brown that spring which basically negated further development before his first call up to bigs.
Imagine if Werth is locked up when he still wants to stay with Phils? Reasonable contract. The RH power bat we've been seeking since (and still). Balanced line-up Hitter in line-up who sees a bunch of pitches. Singleton, Santana and Cosart still Phillies property.
Funny how one missed opporunity set up a series of compounding bad moves...

***Funny how one missed opporunity set up a series of compounding bad moves...***

Much the same with the 2nd Lee trade...FWIW.

"***Funny how one missed opporunity set up a series of compounding bad moves...***
Much the same with the 2nd Lee trade...FWIW."

At the risk of starting this argument again...please elaborate on what bad moves followed the second Lee trade.

And just to stop this before it starts, the Oswalt trade was highway robbery and was not a bad move.


not locking up Werth early, and losing him to a ridiculous contract by the nats,

------------------------------------------------------------------
Sorry, but I don't buy it. I don't think there was any way that Werth wasn't going to test the FA waters.

R.I.P. Earl Weaver.

lvdoc: "not locking up Werth early.."

Had that been done, NEPP would've led the charge in saying what a horrendous contract it was and 90% of BL would've agreed.

But, in hindsight, you're right.

Mike G: Earl Weaver was the greatest. Way ahead of his time in understanding the value of outs (and conversely OB%.)

"Forget about the bunt, unless there is no other choice. There are only three outs per inning. Give one away and you are making everything harder for yourself."

-- Earl Weaver, 1930-2013.

Wow, for once I find myself agreeing with clout over the Pence trade. The people who diss it as am unnecessary move are using hindsight; there was no way the Phils or anyone else could have forseen the Braves' horrible end-of-season collapse in 2012; when Pence was acquired they were breathing down the Phils' necks and our outfield was underperforming. Had I been Amaro, though, I would have traded for Pence in the 2011-2012 offseason, instead of going into 2012 counting on Brown and Francisco to step up; the Astros might not have held up Rube for as huge a package if Rube had asked about Pence before Pence's career year in 2011.

Amaro is making the same mistake this year, BTW--going into the season relying on Brown and Ruf alone; if one or both of them underperforms, look for Amaro to sell off more talent at the trade deadline to some team that dangles a player who can make an immediate impact. Which would have been avoided had he not dumped Pence to save Pennies.

BTW, if you think (like I do) that the outfield needs one proven power bat in it--what about a swap of Rollins for Corey Hart? Their salaries are similar, and the Brew Crew was (supposedly) interested in Rollins as a free agent last year. Hart is a free agent after 2013, which might be a good thing--if Brown and Ruf both blossom in a LF platoon, the Phillies can then afford to let Hart walk. Of course, Rollins would have to agree to the trade, and Galvis would then step in as the everday shortstop. He'd be a defensive upgrade, certainly, but despite his showing in Venezula this winter I'm not sure I believe he has any kind of a bat at all. However, Hart + Galvis would probably still be greater offensively than Rollins + Rough Laynce Brownberry.

MikeG, yes, R.I.P. Earl.

One of the All-Time greats. Innovative, fiery, and a stone-cold winner.

Of course Werth was going FA. He fired his agent, hiring Boras to optimize his pay day; not exactly the move you make if you'd like to hang around Philly and have an insider's grasp of the team's philosophy and finances.

AT's last post could be made into one of those old Highlights magazines where you have to pick out the errors in the picture.

I'm sure clout is proud to be associated with everything said in that post, especially the parts about trading Rollins for Hart, and the 2011 Braves breathing down the Phils' neck, six games out in the loss column, at the time of the Pence trade.

"Hart + Galvis would probably still be greater offensively than Rollins + Rough Laynce Brownberry."

I'm not so sure about that at all. Rollins had like .120 points of OPS on Galvis last year. I'd put my money on a Mayberry/Dom/Ruf/Nix contingent to come much closer to Hart in OPS than Galvis does to Rollins.

But the larger problem with this hypothetical deal is that you'd only be getting Hart for 1 year. Come 2014, you'd still have Freddy Galvis and his .600 OPS as your starting shortstop. But you'd be right back to square 1 in RF.

"But the larger problem with this hypothetical deal is that you'd only be getting Hart for 1 year."

And a shortened year, at that, with Hart recovering from relatively significant knee surgery. He'll miss at least April.

It's pretty easy to judge how little someone knows what they're talking about: simply gauge to what lengths they'd go to get Galvis in the everyday lineup for the next five years.

Earl Weaver died while on a cruise. Not the place that I would choose to die. Earl was a colorful part of baseball and he will be missed.

bap, good post. AT's "solution" to the OF power bat "problem" that doesn't yet exist is to make a shortsighted trade that would, assuming his implied premise that Brown/Ruf aren't up to the task, leave the Phils worse off in a year than they are right now.

You see, if Brown and Ruf are capable and can "both blossom in a LF platoon", then what do they need Hart for in the first place?

If the Phils are going to trade for an OF bat, I would rather it be Soriano and eat half of his salary in return so they don't have to send much back in return.

I wouldn't mind in the least either if they signed Bourn to a 1-year deal. hell even Lohse on a 1-year deal would be a big upgrade over Lannan and give the Phils a little insurance if Halladay is quite Halladay. None of this will happen because this team appears dead set on making sure they are welll clear of the luxury tax threshold. In the very short term it might hurt them but making the playoffs again this year would more than make up for it financially I bet over the next few years.

LF: "Earl Weaver died while on a cruise. Not the place that I would choose to die."

Depends on who you were with.

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